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a71b57ad-cbcb-413d-9893-ca851b859942 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes May 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote yours... |
f67543fb-90a5-467e-a751-7c8c8c64c8d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 22 January 2017 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
Meeting is on 4th floor of the Performing Arts and Humanities Building. Permi... |
55facacd-e408-4667-8627-434cb94002f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes Thread December 2015
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.
* Please ... |
d153a0e9-a3ef-4d7d-88b0-ffd0b285aa6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditional Independence, and Naive Bayes
Previously I spoke of mutual information between X and Y, I(X;Y), which is the difference between the entropy of the joint probability distribution, H(X,Y) and the entropies of the marginal distributions, H(X) + H(Y).
I gave the example of a variable X, having eight states 1.... |
3361eb87-bea7-4f06-8557-a5a6804e1e9c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread
While reading Eliezer's recent [AGI Ruin](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities) post, I noticed that while I had several points I wanted to ask about, I was reluctant to actually ask them for a number of reasons:
* I have a... |
6c1ab1d6-e8f3-4763-84b7-eb0f4dbb114f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Projects
WHEN: 11 January 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to work on projects. Bring something to work on, come up with something there, or help other people out!
As a... |
c999f9f7-252f-49d6-8ae9-69d97f60ef03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A fictional AI law laced w/ alignment theory
*I have envisioned what AI laws could potentially look like, and I believe they should incorporate a substantial amount of alignment theory. I think the AI governance community could find my idea valuable and relevant to their discussions and initiatives.*
**Act of Arti... |
1103b813-f39c-40ee-b4d5-63f6dccc0409 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three Worlds Collide (0/8)
"The kind of classic fifties-era first-contact story that Jonathan Swift might have written, if Jonathan Swift had had a background in game theory."
-- (Hugo nominee) Peter Watts, "In Praise of Baby-Eating"
Three Worlds Collide is a story I wrote to illustrate some points on natural... |
71cf759c-4545-4178-b825-36f34f7c9089 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Christchurch, NZ Meetup - Games & Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Christchurch, NZ Meetup - Games & Discussion
WHEN: 01 June 2014 04:30:00PM (+1200)
WHERE: James Hight, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
The third Chch meetup is this Sunday at 4.30pm! We have a few regular a... |
9e44d655-2b72-4d12-96e0-0b6e3084952a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Hey Extraverts: Enough is Enough
A fun article by Alan Jacobs. Check out the paper he cites, if anyone finds an non-paywalled version, I'll edit in the link here. HT for the link to Michael Bloom.
> So in 2005 a very thoroughly researched and well-argued scholarly article was published that demonstrates, quite... |
30b24605-90ab-40c9-8501-d2baa7cf66ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bangalore Meetup: 19th June 4 pm
This is the second meetup being organized in Bangalore.
The previous one had two attendees and at least 6 more people in Bangalore and a few in other cities have expressed an interest for another one in the comments. Since the discussions petered out without reaching a consensus on t... |
44a145bb-49d5-48d4-b1b6-b21a2c171c7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Opposite Of Autism
It's probably not presuming too much to guess that many around here have personal experience with the autism spectrum, if not in relation to themselves, then with close family. I say this because the kinds of subjects discussed around here are exactly the type that would appeal to those of an au... |
d970689e-0ec5-40a0-9851-e9a8decce3a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information theory and the symmetry of updating beliefs
Contents:
1. The beautiful symmetry of Bayesian updating
2. Odds and log odds: a short comparison
3. Further discussion of information
Rationality is all about handling this thing called "information". Fortunately, we live in an era after the rigorous formu... |
b6be2cda-5126-4bcd-a9b3-b9f3912930dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Living the Berkeley idealism
Quick observation, more funny than insightful.
Today I was thinking about how to publish my thesis when it's finished, and rethinking again what format to put it in. The standard pdf format seems reasonable, but it is merely made of digital print, with no interactivity. Putting in interac... |
1636f06c-8305-4c7f-a991-85940c2c5887 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Agents That Learn From Human Behavior Can't Learn Human Values That Humans Haven't Learned Yet
*[Epistemic status: ¯\\_(ツ)\_/¯ ]*
[Armstrong and Mindermann](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) write about a no free lunch theorem for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL): the same action can reflect many different combin... |
1f363115-a33f-498e-930d-7af22a5be840 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AI Impacts key questions of interest
*Updated Dec 17, 2020*
This is a list of questions that AI Impacts focuses on answering.
Details
-------
We are interested in understanding how the development of advanced AI will proceed and how it may affect humanity, especially insofar as these are relevant to efforts to ... |
a8848732-cbd9-4f63-84f6-ee8119f18c71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Denver Area Meetup 2
Discussion article for the meetup : Denver Area Meetup 2
WHEN: 13 November 2014 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 960 S Colorado Blvd Glendale, CO 80246
The last location we tried had a comedy show going on, which meant talking outside in the mild cold. I'm hoping that this location has a star... |
3cc34444-3389-4791-bb3f-d8df3b92ffe0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Morally underdefined situations can be deadly
**Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for help with this post.**
Morally underdefined situations
-------------------------------
I recently argued that full understanding of value extrapolation[[1]](#fn-wZPFQvyFhwaNqfiKC-1) was [necessary and almost sufficient](https://www.lesswr... |
6ae96a60-612a-4bfe-9b9b-cb0ba921abb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Situational Awareness
Nearly a book review: Situational Awareness, by Leopold Aschenbrenner.
"Situational Awareness" offers an insightful analysis of our proximity to a critical threshold in AI capabilities. His background in machine learning and economics lends credibility to his predictions.
The paper left me with... |
3f61c7a7-8568-4b73-abae-16ef93754368 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Political impasse as result of different odds ratios
Related to: Politics is the Mind-Killer
Both sides seem to have a stake in the current budget supercommittee failing. Why?
The NYTimes reports:
> Intrade, the political futures market, currently puts the odds at just under three to one in favor of both a Republic... |
f3fd69c4-4ddf-4efe-b670-465debe23999 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On value in humans, other animals, and AI
This will be posted also on the EA Forum, and included in a sequence containing some previous posts and other posts I'll publish this year.
Introduction
Humans think critically about values and, to a certain extent, they also act according to their values. To the average hum... |
2b68cf85-5afe-42a7-b8d6-94aed356ba06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leverage points for a pause
What are ways to prevent development of dangerous AI?
When I started on this question two years ago, I expected that passing laws to ban dangerous architectures was the way to go. Then I learned about many new ways from other concerned communities. It was overwhelming.
Here’s a four-l... |
fd4c2e08-ad9a-46ce-b761-9a2ca1e9630d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does robustness improve with scale?
Adversarial vulnerabilities have long been an issue in various ML systems. Large language models (LLMs) are no exception, suffering from issues such as jailbreaks: adversarial prompts that bypass model safeguards. At the same time, scale has led to remarkable advances in the capabil... |
38cc4f34-e0a8-456e-92a8-bebe71c44f03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes November 2009
A monthly thread for posting rationality-related quotes you've seen recently (or had stored in your quotesfile for ages).
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordere... |
67ad5a36-825e-40a2-97f9-3e8a2f7b369e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Search Engines and Oracles
Some time ago, I was following a conversation about Wolfram Alpha (http://www.wolframalpha.com/), an attempt to implement a sort of general purpose question answerer, something people have dreamed about computers doing for decades. Despite the theoretical availability to find out virtually ... |
73468103-da1c-4c66-aad8-913c4249486f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fragmented status doesn’t help
David Friedman wrote, and others have claimed similarly:
> It seems obvious that, if one’s concern is status rather than real income, we are in a zero sum game. If my status increases relative to yours, yours has decreased relative to mine. … Like many things that seem obvious, this one... |
57b060c8-f2f6-496f-90df-2ad0180ef2ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does BioNtech's vaccine result of 90% disease prevention mean that 90% of the vaccinated can't pass the virus to other people?
From reading the news it's not clear to me whether some of those people who receive the vaccine and are in the 90% where it works will be asymptomatic but still infectious. Does anybody know ... |
75108a81-8cb6-4f61-b26b-12dcd0329a1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Devin
INTRODUCING DEVIN
Is the era of AI agents writing complex code systems without humans in the loop upon us?
Cognition is calling Devin ‘the first AI software engineer.’
Here is a two minute demo of Devin benchmarking LLM performance.
Devin has its own web browser, which it uses to pull up documentation.
D... |
0ff520d0-30bc-4c4c-9ec6-e46f045f2077 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesiance (Filk)
To the tune of "Elegance" from Hello Dolly!, with apologies to Jerry Herman
Yes, Less Wrong
It's really us
Bayesians and we're signing songs
Here to speak of priors, what they are
Bayes' Law, math, and the posterior
What a knack
There is to it
Acting like a rational agent
We are Bayesians
If you ai... |
f5b1a398-ed8a-4829-ad69-7ec5c222eda0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What I’ll be doing at MIRI
*Note: This is a personal post describing my own plans, not a post with actual research content.*
Having finished my internship working with Paul Christiano and others at OpenAI, I’ll be moving to doing research at MIRI. I’ve decided to do research at MIRI because I believe MIRI will be th... |
e250cc0e-4d5d-41ff-b353-815c864f3c76 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 331: 16X smaller language models; could AMD compete with NVIDIA?; and BERT for the dark web
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](https://import... |
cbcd468b-e643-49be-aea7-0c51d5aea453 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teapots and Soda Cans
Reading an earnest and thought provoking editorial1 from one James Wood, reviewing 'Letter To a Christian Nation' by Sam Harris. Though atheist himself, he admits a flagging patience with certain attitudes of atheists. I can concede that an atheist's superior and glib demeanor may be due to frust... |
24c44a8f-6d89-4a22-a206-a53bae089b1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extortion beats brinksmanship, but the audience matters
EDIT: The terms "extortion" and "brinksmanship" used in this post don't fully map onto the real-world uses of the term, but are the closest to the concepts I'm trying to point to.
Extortion, simplified, is:
* "Give me something I want or I'll hurt you (even if... |
3dc0bf62-e072-48d6-8ba8-e37ab69d7db2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncovering Latent Human Wellbeing in LLM Embeddings
tl;dr
A one-dimensional PCA projection of OpenAI's text-embedding-ada-002 achieves 73.7% accuracy on the ETHICS Util test dataset. This is comparable with the 74.6% accuracy of BERT-large finetuned on the entire ETHICS Util training dataset. This demonstrates how lan... |
f2d7a308-26dd-4f8d-a473-20276fb69a61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #76]: How dataset size affects robustness, and benchmarking safe exploration by measuring constraint violations
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; y... |
ff9d076d-de46-45d1-9700-4bbe6961bab8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple example of conditional orthogonality in finite factored sets
Recently, MIRI researcher Scott Garrabrant has publicized his work on finite factored sets. It allegedly offers a way to understand agency and causality in a set-up like the causal graphs championed by Judea Pearl. Unfortunately, the definition of c... |
067ae63e-4fc4-4b97-9c1e-6100a6fe8043 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Putanumonit - You can't always tell people's beliefs from explicit behavior + Trump and blacks
|
cc85eeb4-0da8-43a3-a46b-781fa7eb5da1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguments Against Fossil Future?
I'm currently most of the way through Alex Epstein's Fossil Future, and I find the arguments within very convincing.
In (extreme) brevity, they are:
1. Fossil Fuel use and the cheap energy it enables is responsible for unprecedented human flourishing for billions. Billions more need... |
ab8514e9-a75b-41fe-bc5e-a60da59f28a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Implications of Recent Results on Latent Reasoning in LLMs
Faithful and legible CoT is perhaps the most powerful tool currently available to alignment researchers for understanding LLMs. Recently, multiple papers have proposed new LLM architectures aimed at improving reasoning performance at the expense of tran... |
afe4bb49-ad78-40c8-9b21-0cb63df6a8a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adding Sensors to Mandolin?
I'd like to be able to play mandolin with my hands, drums with my feet, and also choose the current bass note. Currently the closest I can do is reach my left hand over to the piano to play a note, but while this is possible with tunes that are not very notey and/or use a lot of open string... |
c2da070c-a1ad-4c86-8e42-64d12f1979e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Nick Szabo: Beware Pascal's Scams
Nick Szabo on acting on extremely long odds with claimed high payoffs:
Beware of what I call Pascal's scams: movements or belief systems that ask you to hope for or worry about very improbable outcomes that could have very large positive or negative consequences. (The name com... |
b6b8259f-ddbe-48db-952c-9c0cdaace686 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The AI Safety community has four main work groups, Strategy, Governance, Technical and Movement Building
Epistemic status
================
Written as a non-expert to develop and get feedback on my views, rather than persuade. It will probably be somewhat incomplete and inaccurate, but it should provoke helpful feedba... |
fadf5ac2-395b-4990-af67-d74f9d43317a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transhumanist philosopher David Pearce AMA on Reddit
Transhumanist philosopher David Pearce co-founded Humanity+ with Nick Bostrom.
He is currently answering questions in an AMA on reddit/r/transhumanism.
|
f83b3dcf-b668-4367-83d6-b270cab5537d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta: How should LW account deletion work?
At 2011-04-08 LW user account deletion is broken. We (Trike) will fix it… but how should it work?
Options:
1. Easy complete deletion: At the click of a button you can remove your account, all of your posts, and all of your comments. It's just that easy to scrub your acti... |
708f50bc-34e8-4fa7-b9db-3045f9078a92 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Training machine learning (ML) systems to answer open-ended questions | Andreas Stuhlmuller
it's my pleasure to welcome this
afternoon
andreas to mullah who's gonna be talking
to us on delegating open-ended cognitive
work so andreas founded aught which is a
non-profit research lab that designs and
tests mechanisms for... |
6c9633d9-fa40-4af2-abfc-3374d7a72cf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There are (probably) no superhuman Go AIs: strong human players beat the strongest AIs
Summary
This is a friendly explainer for Wang et al's Adversarial Policies Beat Superhuman Go AIs, with a little discussion of the implications for AI safety.
Background
In March 2016, DeepMind's AlphaGo beat pro player Lee Sedol ... |
fc14711c-ab4f-42f2-9077-cd0f33897776 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Happens During a Recession
3 weeks ago I asked “What happens during a recession anyway?” I’ve since researched and given answers on 5 different aspects of recessions, plus there’s a secret six aspect I haven’t published because it requires many graphs, and images are a pain in comments. None of these was worth a ... |
ffc1c20d-f705-4851-b1d8-e9a0220ef9b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | JEDAI: A System for Skill-Aligned Explainable Robot Planning.
1. Introduction
----------------
††This paper is originally published in Proc. of 21st Intl. Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS, 2022). Please cite the original work as:
Naman Shah, Pulkit Verma, Trevor Angle, and Siddharth ... |
427c90c4-99dc-4782-b313-2a68f1051866 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UML VIII: Linear Predictors (2)
,
(This is the eight post in a sequence on Machine Learning based on this book. Click here for part I. Alternatively, click here for part IV, which covers the basics of linear predictors.)
The mission statement for this post is to
* continue the study of linear predictors
* widen th... |
fce934ae-6254-4b06-94bb-3ba576f9c384 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin, practical rationality
WHEN: 05 April 2013 07:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: S Wuhletal, 12621 Berlin, Germany
As announced on the mailing list: The next meetup will happen on Friday, April 5th, 19:30 at my house and we'll try something new. ... |
a3d8a914-f526-436e-b27d-45a8b4a08f90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who Wants To Start An Important Startup?
SUMMARY: Let's collect people who want to work on for-profit companies that have significant positive impacts on many people's lives.
Google provides a huge service to the world - efficient search of a vast amount of data. I would really like to see more for-profit businesses ... |
aac4b822-a342-451f-8960-5005029a7ac8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions for Moral Realists
My meta-ethics are basically that of Luke's Pluralistic Moral Reductionism. (UPDATE: Elaborated in my Meta-ethics FAQ.)
However, I was curious as to whether this "Pluralistic Moral Reductionism" counts as moral realism or anti-realism. Luke's essay says it depends on what I mean by "mor... |
8acf44eb-f083-4bac-9be3-4ff2ffa72cc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm Sceptical of Foom
Disclaimer
Written quickly[1]. It's better to draft my objections poorly, than to not draft them at all.
Introduction
I am sceptical that "foom"[2] is some of not physically possible/feasible/economically viable.
[Not sure yet what level of scepticism I endorse.]
I have a few object le... |
682cccc9-91d5-4894-ab61-57ee11d3c442 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holden Karnofsky's Singularity Institute Objection 2
The sheer length of GiveWell co-founder and co-executive director Holden Karnofsky's excellent critique of the Singularity Institute means that it's hard to keep track of the resulting discussion. I propose to break out each of his objections into a separate Discus... |
2129329f-2742-498c-8f93-2f47b26ce533 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Uncompetitive programming with GPT-3
[The recent DeepMind paper](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmxkmCjXJBpwJkgrw/competitive-programming-with-alphacode) will presumably generate a lot of discussion, and I'm not an expert enough to completely understand the technicalities. But I still wonder how much of the breakthro... |
76b894f0-b170-4300-9ed3-c577237b44cb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | From voluntary to mandatory, are the ESG disclosure frameworks still fertile ground for unrealised EA career pathways? – A 2023 update on ESG potential impact
\*Disclaimer: the author is employed by a major ESG rating firm. Therefore, opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the author and do not reflect or... |
8727cc70-b408-4692-a92e-bbc62dd0821c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beta Readers are Great
Back in January, I posted a call for "beta readers": people who read early drafts of my posts and give honest feedback.
The beta readers I picked up that way are one of my favorite things about having started Cold Takes.
Basically, one of my goals with Cold Takes has been to explain my weirdes... |
8c9d11ad-2218-459f-9e2d-0b789180332e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Terry Pratchett is dead
BBC article
I'm sure I'm not the only one who greatly admired him. The theme of his stories was progress; they were set in a fantasy world, it's true, but one that was frequently a direct analogy to our own past, and where the golden age was always right now. The recent books made this ... |
58c4f0d1-5df0-44a2-bf89-3e5d783352a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Universal basic income isn’t always AGI-proof
A universal basic income (UBI) is often presented as a public insurance against large-scale and potentially permanent technological unemployment. Many Silicon Valley leaders that believe in the transformative economic potential of artificial general intelligence have also ... |
33d7bc08-8491-404e-811f-118387c1b1b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on July 29th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bay City Meetup: 19 August 2016 01:25PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Baltimore Area Weekly Mee... |
493f7386-dd19-47f8-946c-ae25c49b1583 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | all claw, no world — and other thoughts on the universal distribution
the post [*anthropics and the universal distribution*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hcc9fopx7sRexYhhi/anthropics-and-the-universal-distribution/) (recommended dependencies: [1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnrpkgSY8zW5ArqPf/sia-greater-than-ss... |
650e9a77-54ea-4bd4-84f7-ebc37a01203f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 01 November 2015 04:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
Crossposted from mailing list. Meeting in courtyard, gathering from 3:00 to 3:30 to start at 3:30.
We'll be meeting to hang out, play g... |
f2356049-d316-4dcb-9001-526f68c1f365 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3917
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . This post summaries the methods for getting honest answers from certain AIs, presented in the previous two posts . You can basically safely ask an AI for expected utility estimates (including conditional ones), probability estimates, and get the AI to ident... |
4647b3d2-d02a-44c8-b83e-514702cd1f08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Efficiency as a 2-place word
Back in the day, Eliezer spoke of 2-place words:
> I have previously spoken of the ancient, pulp-era magazine covers that showed a bug-eyed monster carrying off a girl in a torn dress; and about how people think as if sexiness is an inherent property of a sexy entity, without dependence... |
bea372e6-6922-4f60-8c8f-e43bece0de6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The MVO and The MVP
We live in an age of unprecedented wealth and persistent dissatisfaction. Our capacity to create material abundance has never been greater, yet something essential seems forever just out of our reach.
We’ve built an entire world to maximize profit, we’ve blinded ourselves to our inherent worth. Ou... |
855bafdf-dc23-4460-860e-4b01515bddc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Advice for Incoming SERI MATS Scholars
I have participated in SERI MATS 2.0 in John's stream. Here is some advice based on my experience.
Be Nice
The AI alignment community is pretty small. If you are an ass, everybody will know that you are an ass. The same holds to a lesser extent for being nice. When I was vi... |
0f1240e5-e628-4f9e-ac09-8752f6d2b892 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Uncertainty-Based Out-of-Distribution Classification in Deep Reinforcement Learning
1 INTRODUCTION
---------------
One of the main impediments to the deployment of autonomous machine learning systems in the real world
is the difficulty to show that the system will continue to reliably execute beneficial actions in ... |
1a25818a-6d7d-4fd6-9d25-f8846a3ed5a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's your #1 reason to care about AI risk?
It's way late in my time zone and I suspect this question isn't technically coherent on the grounds that the right answer to "why care about AI risk?" is going to be complicated and have a bunch of parts that can't be separated from each other. But I'm going to share a thou... |
b0d80b16-6a9a-4a09-8dc8-c78b31c62e95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beginning Machine Learning
I recently finished the Machine Learning course on Coursera that is recommended by MIRI's research guide for developing a practical familiarity with machine learning.
This post contains my thoughts about the course and tries to convey the updates my mental models went through as the eleven ... |
f407d2b7-3efc-4dba-9950-cc3656401530 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'An objective defense of Bayesianism'
Recently, Hans Leitgeb and Richard Pettigrew have published a novel defense of Bayesianism:
An Objective Defense of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy
> One of the fundamental problems of epistemology is to say when the evidence in an agent’s possession justifies the beliefs s... |
7b023ba8-a585-4ca8-83c9-3ecc37efc58b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | finding earth in the universal program
finding earth in the universal program
--------------------------------------
this post expands on step one of [*the Peerless*](the-peerless.html): creating virtual people. brain scans-and-simulations are apparently still quite far off, so i'll be focusing on the second approac... |
3d48dd9c-8e88-4075-ac5b-49abaaec8dad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bad arguments as evidence
A problem with listening to arguments is that they often fail to include the evidence that provoked them, which can be informative where the argument itself is fatally flawed.
For instance, suppose there is a God. And suppose that people frequently see him, and so feel inclined to believe in... |
802a8d5f-84bd-4644-9910-5900217a2b57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Copenhagen September Social Meetup - Botanisk Have
Discussion article for the meetup : Copenhagen September Social Meetup - Botanisk Have
WHEN: 27 September 2014 02:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Gothersage 128, Copenhagen
G'day all, Sorry for the delayed announcement, but I'd like to suggest we all hang out at th... |
c7443503-d94e-40c8-8525-5d9207852368 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Designing for Human Rights in AI (Evgeni Aizenberg) - 1st AiTech Symposium
so hi everyone my name is Jani Eisenberg
and my approach I'm a postdoc at a tech
and my project is on designing for human
rights in AI as you've gathered now I'm
working together with you don't hold on
this and also you know so jumping right
i... |
a221f107-a7cc-427c-bcd1-b746b69ea3c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What is the subjective experience of free will for agents?
Jessica recently wrote about [difficulties with physicalist accounts of the world](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/my5pbcmQPb6ASSHYM/puzzles-for-physicalists) and [alternatives to logical counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yBdDXXmLYejrcPPv2/two-a... |
33bef0aa-cdd5-422f-a0be-f704104bd6ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Endgame Stories
Assume you are in the set of possible worlds where AI takeover happens by default. If you do nothing, then at some point in the 21st century the AI lab Magma develops a transformative AI system. Magma employees perform a number of safety checks, conclude the system is safe enough, and deploy ... |
b1e63436-8d72-426e-a133-a601c7dd4489 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ottawa Weekly Monday LessWrong Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa Weekly Monday LessWrong Meetup
WHEN: 21 November 2011 07:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Pub Italia: 434 Preston St, Ottawa, ON
We will be discussing more sections from Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity by Sco... |
238b9c6f-9e92-40e7-a621-693116b9dc4a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Traditional Rationality is phrased in terms of social rules, with violations interpretable as cheating—as defections from cooperative norms. If you want me to accept a belief from you, you are obligated to provide me with a certain amount of evidence. If you try to get out of it, we all know you’re cheating on your ob... |
8fbc250f-73a2-4208-a6b3-dc4dc7977967 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Survey of Early Impact Measures
In the context of AI alignment an impact penalty is one way of avoiding large negative side effects from misalignment. The idea is that rather than specifying negative impacts, we can try to avoid catastrophes by avoiding large side effects altogether.
Impact measures are ways to map... |
a91f507d-1498-43fe-8ed0-b50eb3788d15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My current thoughts on the risks from SETI
SETI stands for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. A few projects, such as Breakthrough Listen, have secured substantial funding to observe the sky and crawl through the data to look for extraterrestrial signals.
A few effective altruists have proposed that passiv... |
d4a37cc1-0e99-44c5-93a6-d7c80c15352b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | David Allen vs. Mark Forster
|
f84199b5-d659-412a-802b-008587de5b0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The importance of open-source cryptography for Singleton prevention
I'm sure most of the readers of lesswrong and overcomingbias would consider a (edit: non-FAI) singleton scenario undesirable. (In a singleton scenario, a single political power or individual rules over most of humanity.)
Singleton could occur if a g... |
a00a2d6c-a5f5-4c48-95a6-8f30cfb6d36a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Other minds and bats: the vampire Turing test
Thoughts inspired by Yvain's philosophical role-playing post.
Thomas Nagel produced a famous philosophical thought experiment "What Is It Like to Be A Bat?" In it, he argued that the reductionist understanding of consciousness was insufficient, since there exists beings -... |
55685df1-19ae-4537-9b35-01961e958554 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would quantum immortality mean subjective immortality?
I've heard a lot of people talking about quantum immortality/suicide like you would be subjectively immortal but I don't see why. Isn't there a chance subjective you will just be sent to the dead branch and a new you is created but that new you in the alive branch... |
5a5878c6-9b71-4669-b846-090a4973ba27 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bay Winter Solstice: call for speech pitches!
Call to pitch me on speeches for Bay Winter Solstice!
Types of things I am particularly interested in:
* personal stories relevant to Solstice themes
* concrete historical stories relevant to Solstice themes
* stories of using truthseeking & rationalist virtue to achi... |
2b49f0df-026e-456f-be6a-c105c477b7e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A proof of inner Löb's theorem
This is a short post that offers a slightly different take on the standard proof of Löb's theorem. It offers nothing else of any value :)
We seek to prove the "inner" version, which we write as:
□P↔□(□P→P).mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: le... |
e9863ece-07ee-4b45-b9c2-9c937567638c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are abortion views sexist?
Indian girls are born on 500,000 fewer occasions per year than Indian boys (2006).(Photo: Steve Evans)
Abortion isn’t too bad according to half of Americans, and most of liberals and the irreligious and that bunch. The fetus never really got as far as being a child, and virtually nobody thi... |
cc5551ee-8627-4e91-ba9a-dc0452b41757 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Terrorism, Tylenol, and dangerous information
Recently, there has been an alarming development in the field of terrorist attacks; more and more terrorists seem to be committing attacks via crashing vehicles, often large trucks, into crowds of people. This method has several advantages for an attacker - it is very easy... |
618c9fd4-5fa6-4c85-9cf0-f631238eaa65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is technical AI alignment research a net positive?
I am concerned that technical AI alignment research could be increasing the risks from AGI, as opposed to decreasing them. Here are some reasons why alongside some possible interventions: (analogies are purposefully crude to help illustrate my points, but I recognize ... |
c7cb908a-025a-4824-afca-b97128d360fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI isn't just a technology
Each time a skeptic talks about AI as a technology, I think it signals a likely crux.
I've been watching the public AI debate closely and sadly. I think that debate might be crucial in whether we actually get aligned AGI, and it's not going particularly well so far. The debate is confused,... |
a3af559c-d029-491a-81bc-dd1b18b00643 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | OCR-IDL: OCR Annotations for Industry Document Library Dataset
1 Introduction
---------------
Analysis of masses of scanned documents is essential in intelligence, law, knowledge management, historical scholarship, and other areas [[25](#bib.bib25)]. The documents are often complex and varied in nature that can be ... |
61494a2b-f805-4bfa-9403-2d2bcf90980e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Chess-GPT Linear Emergent World Representation
A Chess-GPT Linear Emergent World Representation
Introduction
Among the many recent developments in ML, there were two I found interesting and wanted to dig into further. The first was gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct's ability to play chess at 1800 Elo. The fact that an LLM co... |
a509c3c0-ea79-43ea-a855-88fb1a0d6b3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The heritability of human values: A behavior genetic critique of Shard Theory
**Overview (TL;DR):**
Shard Theory is a new approach to understanding the formation of human values, which aims to help solve the problem of how to align advanced AI systems with human values (the ‘AI alignment problem’). [Shard Theory](htt... |
2dacf7d1-8fad-47b6-b5e3-9283bc58ebf6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value systematization: how values become coherent (and misaligned)
Many discussions of AI risk are unproductive or confused because it’s hard to pin down concepts like “coherence” and “expected utility maximization” in the context of deep learning. In this post I attempt to bridge this gap by describing a process by w... |
8eeca1b6-7459-4b3e-97b6-31daff47f155 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating expertise: a clear box model
Context
Purpose of expertise modelling
To get what we value we must make good decisions. To make these decisions we must know what relevant facts are true. But the world is so complex that we cannot check everything directly ourselves and so must defer to topic “experts” for ... |
285212b2-9591-471e-bb74-a70029ba5ed3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bupropion and CBD oil
Bupropion seems to be a great medication in many ways. Scott Siskind wrote about it as being on of the main mediations he uses to treat his patients. One of the side effects of Bupropion can be insomnia. CBD oil is often recommended online as a treatment for insomnia. When searching online, ther... |
6e909537-aaf6-494f-b792-9dc93c1bafcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What subjects are important to rationality, but not covered in Less Wrong?
As many people have noted, Less Wrong currently isn't receiving as much content as we would like. One way to think about expanding the content is to think about which areas of study deserve more articles written on them.
For example, I expect ... |
f6acccf6-fdd0-4fac-bcdc-d7d92b51a4e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I am switching to biomedical engineering and am looking for feedback on my strategy and assumptions
I wrote this post up and circulated it among my rationalist friends. I've copied it verbatim. I figure the more rationally inclined people that can critique my plan the better.
--
TL;DR:
* I'm going to commit to biom... |
ed0fe858-fec2-43f5-b64e-2affc1ef8504 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI and the Map of Your Mind: Pattern Recognition
Credit: @mediapathic
--------------------
Introduction
------------
The recent news of Microsoft and Google integrating their large language models into their respective productivity suites marks a significant milestone in the rapidly evolving world of artificial int... |
9106aea1-7bbd-4da9-b922-277859fdb3fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #160]: Building AIs that learn and think like people
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](h... |
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