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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the United States Department of Justice file a lawsuit to block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a formal civil antitrust lawsuit in any U.S. District Court seeking to enjoin or block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on or before March 15, 2026. This must be confirmed by a DOJ press release or filing on PACER. Voluntary withd... | null | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-26T00:00:00 | 347cd431-3e8f-4fbb-9525-64ea389e2f85 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Netflix–Warner Bros. deal sets up $72 billion antitrust test (published on 2025-12-05 by fortune.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Netflix won its takeover fight for Warner Bros. Discovery in a $72 billion deal, but must still convince ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ files a lawsuit to block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before March 15, 2026. We are as of Dec 8, 2025 (today's date). The question's context includes various news articles from early Dec 2025 about the acquisition and potential an... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH5XP7kGyuxpRKnYBKoTRYWOW_pjxLllpm7oeTwCLKgY5A3frf3ElbOLo0fQSm3QQHfnFpYFLFeScYArRQjarOpclRFqW_z8k3FrGDT0l84KR_vpbKKooIQ-v0PLbOg7dX4THJdnn52pUtAZ4AirBc6tr7cMInPGqs=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpw7kPhCMghqXjbVhm... | true | 2 | null | 0.27 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,985 | 2,903 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 | -0.314711 |
Will the North Macedonian Public Revenue Office (UJP) report that more than 150 business entities have been issued temporary bans on activities (sealing of premises) due to fiscal irregularities for the cumulative period of the 2025 holiday inspection campaign by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the North Macedonian Public Revenue Office (UJP/УЈП) publishes an official report or statement indicating that the total number of business entities subjected to 'measures for prohibition of activity' (мерки за забрана за вршење дејност/запечатување на објектот) for the period covering t... | null | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | ec186ebe-6c36-4463-b927-60a9ed93427f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "\"Public Revenue Office\" UJP temporary ban sealing of premises fiscal irregularities 2025 holiday inspection campaign; UJP \"holiday inspection\" 2025 temporary bans number of business entities; \"sealing of premises\" \"tempora... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that by Feb 1, 2026, the North Macedonian Public Revenue Office (UJP) will report that more than 150 business entities have been issued temporary bans (sealing of premises) due to fiscal irregularities for the cumulative period of the 2025 holiday inspection... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEnm7_6DdURsiY0-0oBXa-A3C8CgUGHaS7JwnrBeh5MrPRhKjLViQhgO-2BknRKr2TkweTwzd6rcKkMkRqg7kjgyY44yp7c8qU27dOqUgPvwcpDJ4AlWzYQdnL_tOqb744A1GtYSIC_3umbjDbMVowDq3iU2c1VdyIxRjwQhX0fzqbaaz03xqv5rapMauebkYHPyJ9SZMGqDhZnYxcj01o2fPqjsGEPE8sKL5DHaoVPrct7bNNf6Rndd48dX... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 462 | 837 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a lawsuit to block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a formal civil antitrust lawsuit in any U.S. District Court seeking to enjoin or block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on or before March 15, 2026. This must be confirmed by a DOJ press release or filing on PACER. Voluntary withd... | null | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | c9960ce4-7dbf-4a97-8b23-2acbd8f12945 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Warner Bros. Accepts Netflix's $83 Billion Bid, but Antitrust Threats Still Loom (published on 2025-12-05 by reason.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Netflix plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for $83 billion after WBD accept... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast that the US DOJ will file a lawsuit to block Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery before March 15, 2026.
We need to consider relevant background information up to today's date (2025-12-08). The context includes multiple news articles abo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG5p_yaQ2PyXCCORj6zAuyhJUQrDIBNgEkHf42ka_eK_kas7cAMAwEE1gzfW022azkL_fQx8sg_hEOpgi1mv7Wp2uahpf9s9KM0AVRvfr5cMoaLONfr0K6uQHzBdz_1LD2hAipfNKjJBiHNaa2WY9jlaEI3H1yTqZQUjWLlq6vXRhS1Rf_qMWqsGnGRVXKmV9wKQjbo2KO_vEwZyV9rTImrP3qRkVUzEKaj5w-IANM=, https://vertexa... | true | 2 | null | 0.3 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,075 | 2,733 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | -0.356675 |
Will the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 'Handbook of Statistics on Indian States' or a Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) report published before April 1, 2026, confirm that Tripura had the second-highest Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at current prices among the eight North Eastern states ... | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a report from the RBI or MOSPI covering the 2024-25 fiscal year explicitly ranks Tripura second in GSDP (at current prices) among the North Eastern Council states (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura). If the data shows Tripura in any ot... | null | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | a08a295f-d6be-47b6-af01-5fc1e5f15c0c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Income Required for India's Top 1% by States (published on 2025-11-29 by indiadatamap.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: India's 2025 landscape shows sharp income gaps across states for entry into the top 1%: thresholds range from ₹45 la... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the specific event will resolve to 'Yes' or 'No'. The event: "Will the RBI Handbook of Statistics on Indian States or a MOSPI report published before April 1, 2026, confirm that Tripura had the second-highest GSDP at current prices among the e... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.58 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 637 | 4,828 | null | -0.867501 | 0.3364 | -0.867501 |
Will the Government of India formally approve or sanction funding for the Polavaram–Nallamala Sagar linkage project by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Union Cabinet of India, the Ministry of Jal Shakti, or the Ministry of Finance issues an official notification, press release through the Press Information Bureau (PIB), or a budget allocation document specifically approving or sanctioning funds for the 'Polavaram–Nallamala Sagar lin... | null | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 502fec2f-4291-4625-8d39-671cf164fc98 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Polavaram–Nallamala Sagar linkage formal approval funding Government of India; Polavaram Nallamala Sagar linkage March 2026 approval sanction status; Union Cabinet sanction Polavaram Nallamala Sagar linkage funds; NITI Aayog appr... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the Government of India will formally approve or sanction funding for the Polavaram–Nallamala Sagar linkage project by March 1, 2026.
We have limited context: The prompt includes a heading "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGAcE5HRRF4ovbQbHBkvrWI91eAj8kevsGthKBj8BOM_rsuDes-Qrd-B9oqg0uYXWDy_ZV3Z8Im5t36AehyIo2z6rPKGcbbZbIqmLC00kE2V7fJoGZ5SZ9-XFPFR45jMQYCjJFiHv6vA3XOUIIkz1hZWhDoKqO0QXBOBODSwxBzeDfyg3idK4R1E-K7a4Qo1HZz5OW8H2W8YgdT8fzhI5_oU2EG5gziW_Q3TWkc4ruXipRRs2-sACm-GNcCX... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 430 | 1,823 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) release a formal guidance document or enforcement advisory specifically addressing the use of AI in hiring and firing decisions before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) publishes a new guidance document, technical assistance resource, or formal enforcement advisory on its official website (eeoc.gov) between December 9, 2025, and April 1, 2026, that establishes rules or best practices for how empl... | null | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | cd9c95f2-5a45-460b-9b47-5798741f29b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Federal Agencies Roll Out AI Strategy Plans- Takeaways for Government Contractors (published on 2025-12-06 by natlawreview.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: On April 3, 2025, OMB issued memoranda M-25-21 and M-25-22 directing covered ag... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate for the event: Will the EEOC release a formal guidance document or enforcement advisory specifically addressing the use of AI in hiring and firing decisions before April 1, 2026? The date now is Dec 9 2025. So we have about 4 months (Dec 9 2025 to ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEJUkxoHEjxtCL2R6n9cvOM1MLWcB7Fu0pcuSHoXi6cAyDMUyC0wJt5rI4DIUll6MF5xVKuWUJo4R8nIrDqFiQ2fmlA2speTCidngb2A5xAC0-AuGPit1Vh2idlF_3oAXMInvC0S3bgD3F0ZibWl5QiblltB5-0zXy3sP8d7_CNhDaPIi5n4BhFxDBnsmHOKLVGCvTQZAFOyq7mOr7mkaUJomQMrjZsuUWIzA2CAsAn8k-Zc7uEZEbr779Tr... | true | 2 | null | 0.3 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,158 | 4,454 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | -0.356675 |
Will the Government of India publish the official notification of the 2027 Census questionnaire in the Gazette of India before June 1, 2026? | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the Government of India officially publishes the questionnaire for the upcoming Census (designated as Census 2027) in the Gazette of India (Official Gazette) on or before May 31, 2026. The publication must be verifiable through the official website of the Department of Publication or re... | null | 2025-12-09T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-22T00:00:00 | 4ae4aaea-6d38-4090-bee1-5e6dcba0f5c5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] MHA in Lok Sabha: Houselisting phase of Census 2027 between April & September 2026; headcount in February (published on 2025-12-02 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The home ministry told the Lok Sabha that Ce... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that Government of India will publish the official notification of the 2027 Census questionnaire in the Gazette of India before June 1, 2026. Today's date: Dec 9, 2025. So time horizon ~ 6 months (Dec to May). The question – will they publish questionnaire in G... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGKLPGtlvxa4IqchJ3aNuvLpgF0Onv_a6KosNDcHQOR_DM0DCa4aUgJUbsS0aeRF4fiX17PbrlpNwfrHCysi6zVUT2NiVN-_Na4l36IWRDJxYPUS3seFJBlByaRDad0TGyW8Ta-LiaM8Yk9xmmQB-BEobUEhk_c59lUZ2hoEdEt8INMMLUJ6jCdRfhZKjR0zB3noG_Vn7Kht7TVP6-Es2_aZwOofDJkSyXyg_oUmKTO8BIMLHeCz-agEiB4o... | true | 2 | null | 0.72 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,196 | 2,847 | null | -0.328504 | 0.0784 | -0.328504 |
Will the Indian Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) or the Ministry of Civil Aviation formally announce a financial penalty against IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation Ltd) specifically for crew rostering or Flight Duty Time Limit (FDTL) violations before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the DGCA or the Ministry of Civil Aviation issues an official press release, order, or public statement confirming the imposition of a fine or monetary penalty on IndiGo due to failures in crew management, rostering systems, or FDTL compliance mentioned in the seed text. A mere show-ca... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-17T00:00:00 | 5058876c-3d24-49a9-a7bc-1281e60eefd9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Aviation Regulator's Notice To IndiGo CEO Over \"Massive\" Flight Disruptions (published on 2025-12-06 by ndtv.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: India's aviation regulator, the DGCA, issued a show-cause notice to IndiGo CEO over a week-... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast probability that DGCA or Ministry will formally announce a financial penalty against IndiGo for crew rostering/FDTL violations before March 1, 2026 (about 2.5 months from now, from Dec 10 2025 to Mar 1 2026). Facts: we have context of show-cause... | null | null | null | null | 0.34 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,344 | 1,897 | null | -1.07881 | 0.4356 | -1.07881 |
Will the Karnataka state government officially announce the full disbursement of the alleged pending Gruha Lakshmi scheme installments for February and March 2025 by March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Karnataka Department of Women and Child Development or the Chief Minister's Office issues a formal statement, press release, or official report confirming that the overdue payments for the months of February and March 2025 have been transferred to the bank accounts of all eligible ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | d0442358-d341-4710-8043-24fc91b51984 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Karnataka Gruha Lakshmi pending installments February 2025 March 2025 disbursement official announcement; Gruha Lakshmi scheme Karnataka March 2025 installment status February 2025 installment status; Karnataka government Gruha L... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that the Karnataka state government will officially announce the full disbursement of pending Gruha Lakshmi scheme installments for February and March 2025 by March 31, 2026, given today's date Dec 10, 2025. Need to treat provided context. However context say... | null | null | null | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 439 | 2,390 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann formally recommend or request a judicial probe supervised by the Punjab and Haryana High Court into the 'drug money trail' by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 11, 2025, and March 1, 2026, the Office of the Chief Minister of Punjab issues a formal letter, recommendation, or official statement requesting the Chief Justice of the Punjab and Haryana High Court to oversee or appoint a time-bound probe into drug-related money trail... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | cd14c327-60fb-415d-9d29-49f0ed8f431c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Amid Congress turmoil, Sunil Jakhar brings up letter sent to CM Bhagwant Mann in June urging court-monitored probe into drug money (published on 2025-12-09 by indianexpress.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: BJP Punjab president Sunil Ja... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the outcome will happen: Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann formally recommends/request a judicial probe in the drug money trail, supervised by Punjab and Haryana High Court, between Dec 11 2025 and Mar 1 2026, based on the context.
We have to analyze... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwo4V8SE0uEklA2IQaVLlPHNd3M3i_1DG-QeeXFb9zlnZjWtJCjDhjT5hYLMVQcHQTurzhwW0av9oAqiylHocZ-0SQ4mjR35IcAVsFVXHpGc74WT-f-6gZCs1K7AtxHdb9sa2ocOAoYJKAt0JyhqwH_JFhIua3ng0TXALjs1Fuw0Pk0P4KdHvf0h1DTAMMInybr7r6cei9vBWnZkalU9ryTJ4iHSb1f3SXLthLrPvJ81U8skEzgmQlIHNr5... | true | 2 | null | 0.23 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 754 | 1,900 | null | -0.261365 | 0.0529 | -0.261365 |
Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi lay the foundation stone for the Namrup ammonia-urea project on or before December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Prime Minister Narendra Modi participates in a formal foundation stone-laying ceremony for the ammonia-urea project in Namrup, Assam (estimated at Rs 12,000 crore) between December 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025. The event must be reported by major outlets such as the Press Informatio... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-21T00:00:00 | b7b320a3-294d-49f4-937c-a01d318b2259 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] PM Modi, Amit Shah to visit Assam soon amid poll prep (published on 2025-12-04 by m.economictimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Assembly polls are likely early next year in Assam. CM Himanta Biswa Sarma said PM Narendra Modi will vi... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability forecast that the event (PM Modi laying foundation stone for Namrup ammonia-urea project on or before Dec 31, 2025) will happen, given we are at date Dec 10, 2025 (today). So we have time between Dec 10 and Dec 31 - about three weeks.
We have a s... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFws3GxsEod60oFOYp-vlQrfJFldwE0MS1BpN35m64POsY7hCBQvcfNZwXcV86qT3g2j9fCGZ6gK7E7bheMQyZgW2PnwTrfmsExyQpQWRxuBd9XkypK0UJGP2CUETvkv7G9iPG0lGtOLfDhRJ6Poqhp2p9IRZ_yr--nEOxtI84IAXDJrMU_XzNX0gwY74ekjXTRUwcmllso6et6KDudrpMtWbIh6q1GvHMWhjEVMGG0, https://vertexa... | true | 2 | null | 0.86 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,213 | 1,892 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will the Kerala State Government or Kochi Corporation officially award a contract or sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a new waste-to-energy plant at Brahmapuram by March 10, 2026? | 2026-03-10T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 10, 2025, and March 10, 2026, the Kerala state government or the Kochi Municipal Corporation publicly announces the selection of a contractor and the formal signing of a contract or MoU for the construction of a waste-to-energy facility at the Brahmapuram site. This m... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-10T00:00:00 | 1b495acc-dfda-48fc-8f8a-da18e8f44b92 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Company Highlights: Key developments in the past 12 months (published on 2025-11-25 by renewablewatch.in) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Renewable Watch outlines major Indian renewables developments and awards across solar, wind, green hy... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast that the Kerala State Government or Kochi Corporation will officially award a contract or sign an MoU for a new waste-to-energy plant at Brahmapuram by March 10, 2026. Provide a well-reasoned probability estimate (0-1).
We need to use the given con... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHjMLTrg1XUR4M7Ax3wxKviQmNu__9xzS3Z9vKokxE6kVBhrbodEj3-ICmbQI0FerrjP3gTa1SbZLhqkt8kDMkDrmtt1IVKhO_N38d3UL4N_uykwJgC68od44528lJb_l37xDLA3JKSEDCTpdlvrUPpGctuW8NNJh1zjAFEx8AjGaKVCJkq4Czr0T3yeOhQ38zoBbiLe5B_dZsMh5qpLaOt5ERbzaonNPNueno=, https://vertexaisea... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 632 | 1,441 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) or the Ministry of Civil Aviation of India officially announce a financial penalty of at least 50 million Indian Rupees against IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation Ltd) before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the DGCA or the Ministry of Civil Aviation issues an official press release or public order stating that IndiGo has been fined a sum equal to or exceeding 50 million INR specifically in relation to the flight cancellations and crew rostering issues reported in late 2025. Otherwise, it ... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-18T00:00:00 | c9be622e-46fa-4148-997f-21c35ecc3ac2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] IndiGo's flight chaos: Will the government remove CEO Pieter Elbers? (published on 2025-12-06 by wionews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The government is considering an unprecedented crackdown on IndiGo after 1,000+ flight cancellati... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a probability forecast that the DGCA or Ministry of Civil Aviation of India will officially announce a financial penalty of at least INR 50 million against IndiGo before Feb 15 2026. We are given current context up to Dec 10 2025 (today). We have a set of recent news art... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHO1wcmKlI8xafrTSA_SNCtVDKANk-elknDmjS6nuToX_OhRhJ4X3uzf95FQluvp8zxsE7cht1R5BYGVOTwHioKAUXuet0PVpOMyuRH0e7CZxjSdU5gxCzRj9vfs_Fg5ibpvC1ynSiSG5zSrqCYR9xYkK0DtvWPhh5F59Nh1zw2stnte_ZCVgTKX14_ObkZmm6EMw0qfrknNHzeJ4vBTemoKt7ArmXg5fDtpWpVQ8NAvlO6eqmU_g7iqQjoX... | true | 2 | null | 0.17 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,189 | 3,008 | null | -1.771957 | 0.6889 | -1.771957 |
Will the new terminal building of the Lokpriya Gopinath Bordoloi International Airport in Guwahati be formally inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi before December 25, 2025? | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal inauguration ceremony for the new terminal building at Lokpriya Gopinath Bordoloi International (LGBI) Airport, attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is reported by official government channels (e.g., PIB) or major news outlets (e.g., The Hindu, ANI, Times of India) as hav... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-20T00:00:00 | 0f4b3273-8b52-4ba0-b82d-a8948f2ae53d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rs 21-L runway equipment theft at LGBI Airport raises security alarm ahead of PM visit (published on 2025-12-06 by assamtribune.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Preparations for the Dec 20 inauguration of the new terminal at Lokpriya G... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the new terminal building of the Lokpriya Gopinath Bordoloi International Airport in Guwahati will be formally inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi before December 25, 2025. The current date for this scenario is 2025-12-10. The window f... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEFdmHNZUMRItxi7PXTbIQdNgG3vXcSdszgYfJax2wdOmp8mZpkB5xDHvPE9zMWgXFY72TQbdYzQBrpclh0OBUATU_w5GYA9ux2zCWyGkVJHUjA68IOmO1f3LXTAM83g_i0y_Z7zdUU_1hrcTQY0be2XnU8UrHFSuu_ZuOBZFN5EYZKEwNDIyQM-XbW4DKpzqlmNSd7LArb8R68o7TiYjb9-dQMm6f67fxLGb5qP3VehGl1l19z6xO7y5mX9... | true | 2 | null | 0.68 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,700 | 3,576 | null | -0.385662 | 0.1024 | -0.385662 |
Will the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026 signed into law include a provision explicitly prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC)? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026 is signed into law and contains an explicit prohibition or ban on the Federal Reserve and/or the Department of the Treasury from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to individuals. If the law is enacted with... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-18T00:00:00 | b51e688e-0619-41f1-b4c8-e8eb80cad74d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Unpacking the $900 billion annual defense bill: What's in? What's out? (published on 2025-12-08 by thehill.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Congress released the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) text, a compromise bill ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a forecast probability that the final version of the FY2026 NDAA signed into law (by March 1, 2026) will include an explicit prohibition on the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). We have to consider given context and any other knowledge, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH7xGF1yESiP0gEPzYZG3o7c9Ni3ajPYUwJqRULThsHHEx3R-4t1xmDCjmlR3BqmnUSRfPEp1-buF9NRZMCdJeuF2Om8d6PZCIbNcmLpNR-nyLEmQiPthPerQd5WEYDcHSvJXSNtuS4inoQj57aWAUXZ2UnDHQ9jLhy7g4xv7wEzYVrOQvPLf5LNk46KpvlaSJxrvxXAUy5pWjb_A4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 987 | 2,503 | null | -3.218876 | 0.9216 | -3.218876 |
Will the Kerala State government or its agencies officially approve the commencement of a new elevated highway project between Infopark and Vyttila by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal administrative sanction or a budget allocation specifically for the start of construction or land acquisition for an elevated highway connecting Infopark and Vyttila is officially announced by the Kerala State Cabinet, the Public Works Department (PWD), or Kochi Metro Rail Lim... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | ca115376-0816-4904-b3f3-2f195fe8236e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] India's Next Investment Hotspots: Top Tier-2 and Tier-3 Cities Set for Major Transformations in 2025 (published on 2025-11-10 by tradebrains.in) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Tier 2 and 3 Indian cities are emerging as investment hotspots... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the Kerala State government or its agencies will officially approve commencement of a new elevated highway project between Infopark and Vyttila by March 15, 2026.
Given today's date is Dec 10, 2025, so about 3 months remaining until March 1... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFEnXE3MDx0BDGy36Ye7HhYz6fnohsMXpP2Ob-7qCz-fBcHQeqcJHn6FeVOO3mAejvfuV5GgkCFq-hNNNJ-MiaSjFX2FkejRetIVz_5gT8nt37po0FOGrLXIIz1Juy3ppWW2XYY6DjOU5jPmMwWDrO2WXJIYrurJp-smsaFtWOrPUykPZ86IdLUcmPQgxWrlUgib032d3yfvi-OvSIQP3ArODZPE_oD-L8XP9PPOMg2Cxz3KMCPaFA=, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.15 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 665 | 1,544 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | -0.162519 |
Will the Karnataka state government officially announce a revision to the eligibility criteria for the Gruha Lakshmi scheme to reduce the number of beneficiaries by March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, between December 10, 2025, and March 31, 2026, the Government of Karnataka issues an official Government Order (GO) or an official statement through the Minister for Women and Child Development announcing new restrictive eligibility criteria (such as lower income ceilings or exclusion ... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | d78a63ba-cd84-4487-bdbc-61a71fc30160 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"search_query": "Karnataka Gruha Lakshmi eligibility criteria revision official announcement; Gruha Lakshmi scheme reduce beneficiaries March 31 2026 eligibility changes; Karnataka cabinet decision Gruha Lakshmi eligibility criteria; Karnataka ho... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that Karnataka state government will officially announce a revision to eligibility criteria for Gruha Lakshmi scheme to reduce number of beneficiaries, by March 31, 2026.
We have to base on context: however the context provided is almost empty. It... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG-vqcrmEjCJBLh0f5DDukol4LMEkVTZkdX_uivhRsBkdWs-7P0MyzlUrHfqHt859d5c6RrATkEDMIpkNSle8gB5Ahbt6V0IceBKtC7-8Ep24R3ELWgH2-DzmPwnfzwmq-qlvNntQB3SwgQgTkuHtNx-UbhD5j95oOR5U5g0LhxY1C6nwXONVzMjJFyiwkoYSUZDJTqzmMJJUBdu32-c_V9UKff2kSfbGVgiQWMrhoHDNxRcGEIUNGQqwe83... | true | 2 | null | 0.11 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 406 | 2,291 | null | -0.116534 | 0.0121 | -0.116534 |
Will the Karnataka state government publicly acknowledge outstanding arrears for the Gruha Lakshmi scheme exceeding Rs 5,000 crore in its 2026-27 state budget document or legislative session? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Karnataka state budget for 2026-27 (typically presented in February or March) or an official White Paper on state finances released by the Finance Department by March 15, 2026, explicitly states that the total unpaid dues (arrears) to beneficiaries of the Gruha Lakshmi scheme exceed ... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-06T00:00:00 | c1a25c14-db95-4976-9c98-8809d2c12dd8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] In Karnataka power tussle, Congress MLA says if not Siddaramaiah, G Parameshwara is '2nd best option' (published on 2025-11-27 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: A senior Congress MLA in Karnataka urged dissolv... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce forecast probability that Karnataka state government will publicly acknowledge outstanding arrears for the Gruha Lakshmi scheme exceeding Rs 5,000 crore in its 2026-27 state budget document or legislative session, by March 15, 2026.
We have to use only context: we have ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGe4COEvkfChk1PLWJsbwzB6FoFKXeFyPyfDt-4u5np6UmvB4ZCEKONskNzOw8tNeUq1bC6TXbO54JUkr2umZByvf9fRq3KW8cskKtufS6hyrTMkKhGrnHjf3YurYvDwpNRDfdQN8qxKNSaRz5NRgukyn53N6v_qO0VvIeTsboShW7UD8fv71PdeE05cOvrfSyIC25IFAF8Yyupn1nVNX5A3lSEWgf4bdF8SaBfBt-WVlx5vQiadcNkVzwMA... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 570 | 1,818 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will Pieter Elbers cease to be the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation Ltd) before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo) issues a formal filing with the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) or the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), or a public press release, confirming that Pieter Elbers has resigned, been dismissed, or otherwise stepped down from his role as CEO. The effecti... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 92e97eba-1bce-434e-be71-ae6a5c5fd97b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] IndiGo's flight chaos: Will the government remove CEO Pieter Elbers? (published on 2025-12-06 by wionews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The government is considering an unprecedented crackdown on IndiGo after 1,000+ flight cancellati... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to give a calibrated probability that Pieter Elbers will cease to be CEO of IndiGo before March 1, 2026.
We must consider background knowledge up to knowledge cutoff (2024-09) but also given context (news from Dec 2025). The question date is Dec 10 2025. The close date is March 1 ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH6D-lgHDMUJGa5XBh38mUnFkNxZDs6kaUEmuKxSegMBiL5VzEfEuhXBJeansqjEnrHg9wsAvRvuuEE4gqE4Pfa-2Bn8xNsla6UzxK8wA6cGmkM7Nm2TtTxNh78MvgqGKQFuKcbMmI80QJfFuynb7I-OG4C7aFqymq2Ad2l74elVMdhAKmU, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQET... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,043 | 2,704 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the Punjab government formally notify the establishment of a new multi-agency task force specifically dedicated to investigating the 'drug money trail' before March 10, 2026? | 2026-03-10T00:00:00 | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Government of Punjab issues a formal gazette notification or official executive order establishing a task force involving two or more state/central agencies (e.g., Punjab Police and the Enforcement Directorate) specifically tasked with investigating the financial assets and money lau... | null | 2025-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-10T00:00:00 | 5b0e778d-6c75-4edc-8423-3b64a1df9735 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Cross-border heroin supply network: ED files complaint against four to initiate money laundering prosecution (published on 2025-11-21 by indianexpress.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has filed a compla... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to issue a forecast: probability that Punjab government will formally notify establishment of a new multi-agency task force specifically dedicated to investigating the drug money trail before March 10, 2026. The current date 2025-12-10. We have only one article: about Enforcement D... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFXP5mLUkWGgiQeOLmGv4RSGL4RyXIRyfCDWR1I0mFrClVLamGjeXFALW_lrOrAZx_RLyWqMpP-5RrjuiI13ah6v_Zg-lRGZVZpgxOpqTuxUimAXuM1-Yla41JsRWlDjsTbiyRmFjsNBdoNBWC69RwKerH87-_SytPclFgZyeKaZP4VxLj0N7Scqq1JmljcBI9_dULSR6IrKpJXNkcU8D0yDBi6Cc7ujhECqfDOIZ4ZKIMXDCWL, https:/... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 569 | 2,352 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will official rescue or recovery teams (NDRF/SDRF) find at least one of the five individuals reported missing in the Brahmaputra River at Guwahati on December 10, 2025, by December 21, 2025? | 2025-12-21T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 11, 2025, and December 21, 2025, the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), or local police formally confirm the recovery of at least one of the five persons who went missing on December 10 at the Bhakti Kutir site in Guwaha... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-13T00:00:00 | 325666ae-46b4-45a1-ab6c-66e618fceaf4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Five missing in Brahmaputra near Kharguli; no trace despite day-long search (published on 2025-12-10 by assamtribune.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Guwahati: NDRF and SDRF launched a search on Dec 10 for five people missing after a n... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have a forecasting problem. We need to give a probability that official rescue or recovery teams (National Disaster Response Force NDRF and State Disaster Response Force SDRF, or local police) will formally confirm the recovery (alive or deceased) of at least one of five missing individ... | null | null | null | null | 0.24 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,314 | 3,076 | null | -1.427116 | 0.5776 | -1.427116 |
Will at least one person be officially appointed as the Vice Chancellor of either APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University or the University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an official notification, government order, or press release from the Raj Bhavan (Kerala Governor's office) or the Government of Kerala confirms the appointment of a Vice Chancellor for either APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University or the University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | 34cbe7a9-ada3-4fe4-adea-e18c9d8bc955 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] No Consensus on Kerala Vice Chancellors: Supreme Court Orders Dhulia Committee to Pick Final Names (published on 2025-12-10 by lawbeat.in) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Supreme Court, hearing the Kerala Governor vs State dispute over... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability that at least one person will be officially appointed as the Vice Chancellor of either APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University (AKTU?) (called APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University) or the University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology (UDSIT... | null | null | null | null | 0.58 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,236 | 3,908 | null | -0.544727 | 0.1764 | -0.544727 |
Will the University Grants Commission (UGC) or the Ministry of Education of India issue an official notification recognizing pre-2009 MPhil degrees as equivalent to the National Eligibility Test (NET) for lecturer eligibility before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 11, 2025, and February 28, 2026, the University Grants Commission (UGC) or the Ministry of Education publishes a circular, notification, or official amendment to the UGC (Minimum Qualifications for Appointment of Teachers and other Academic Staff in Universities and C... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 60f945e5-a627-4ce5-898f-fa6f945ffcdb | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] JMI PhD Admission 2025-26, Exam date, Schedule (published on 2025-11-10 by adda247.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Jamia Millia Islamia (JMI) released the PhD Admission 2025–26 notification on its admission portal (https://admission.j... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Provide a probability forecast that UGC or Ministry of Education will issue an official notification recognizing pre-2009 MPhil degrees as equivalent to NET for lecturer eligibility before March 1, 2026 (i.e., within Dec 11 2025 - Feb 28 2026). Need to reason based on context. Co... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEVHaRKcesAag2tJ2WneKJcNZxElO71QF1sYh9JWBjuWenh6Jjp8Oy4u4hUameMxfrusQS_MkII8x9ZkXRc8ByYDM0n_LlBL9v-LL-EHSWil_G7rlJDOaRQ0nKpclZQVO4X2OIQjNzdY6Oq6pKNRQaYxEBZmvuCIeLRne0EHKBSnfWNSWIPvQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZI... | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 698 | 1,379 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | -0.061875 |
Will the Bihar Police officially announce the arrest of at least one suspect in connection with the shooting of Dinanath Prasad in Nalanda by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Bihar Police, or an official spokesperson for the Nalanda district administration, publicly announces the arrest of one or more individuals specifically for the shooting of Dinanath Prasad (husband of the Chero Panchayat Mukhiya) that occurred in Sarmera on or about December 10-11, 2... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | b79c44dc-65e7-4045-a288-13526adabb28 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
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"search_query": "Dinanath Prasad shooting Nalanda Bihar Police suspect arrested announcement; Bihar Police Dinanath Prasad shooting investigation update January 2026; Nalanda Dinanath Prasad shooting accused detained Bihar Police; Dinanath Prasad... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for whether Bihar police will officially announce arrest of at least one suspect in connection with shooting of Dinanath Prasad in Nalanda (Sarmera) by Jan 15, 2026, given context. We're given "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEZPbWVnScViCJz9cCtflRzSjbggZd7hYinpytWfUIgApoL5A1Eudsx97XTH0zTwVUk9qGf_F2qSoYV2qx69a8hVibbF9lLotWlX8H2eYia2j6miEFecjB1LucdKP1j8NGCSmMEZns=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG5H_04Oto6wnZpvBEN-45H4Z2t-xWoYr65kEHh6k7g... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 407 | 1,921 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) show a year-over-year increase of at least 4.0% in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 2026 report? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the unadjusted year-over-year change for 'All items' in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is 4.0% or higher, as reported in the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index Summary released in March 2026 (covering the period of February 2026). T... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-11T00:00:00 | 7629b4e8-a20d-4d7a-8f24-cbd6acd7052b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Fed to cut rates again in December on weakening job market, say most economists: Reuters poll (published on 2025-11-12 by reuters.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Reuters polling of 105 economists found 80% expected the Fed to cut its ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: provide a probability forecast that the U.S. CPI-U year-over-year (YoY) increase will be at least 4.0% in the BLS March 2026 report (covering period of February 2026). The close date is March 31, 2026, by which point the March 2026 CPI report is out (includes data for February 20... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFmj5KjWrJOWcTCqe43WnbNg7wzMZpfbCdpL4tPEKSIexUcLyIh4VPODeabaAa1hSQkXh3guZlWyqqPVIU_8zDlVb11mVRSAZ6eyCkqegk2b_swIDrHELcrOnRJ58FJSbZBesmuVWhOV4KA1V44_SCDyJ07sLk= | true | 2 | null | 0.2 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,451 | 1,833 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 | -0.223144 |
Will the Nifty 50 index close at or above 26,000 points on any trading day between December 11, 2025, and February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the official daily closing price of the Nifty 50 (India's benchmark stock market index) is equal to or greater than 26,000.00 points at the end of any regular trading session between December 11, 2025, and February 1, 2026, inclusive. Resolution will be based on historical price data f... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 3bcb459d-fab0-4852-823b-34ac807a441f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Closing Bell: Sensex Ends 158 pts Higher, Nifty Climbs Above 26,000; Hero MotoCorp, HAL Up 2% Each (published on 2025-12-04 by goodreturns.in) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: On Dec 4, Sensex and Nifty closed marginally higher after volati... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast about whether the Nifty 50 index will close at or above 26,000 points on any trading day between Dec 11, 2025 and Feb 1, 2026 inclusive.
We must produce a well-calibrated forecast, considering evidence. We have news articles listed with dates and ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFpK17OJ3NQV-NKj489hJclbsuhLS2WTRcmJrBaa3uscQa_6m-UYzsSPZHvdFkXEl1-bUVWW16NmjA-TU6zFaUeoMQmpxqO4cMnz1c4w4mFTzOeXLDHq2Np3BmyRxGLXlye4RffR7ZzMl0RVImTVrdfkfiv4jnwGfbFs2xRHJw67PiaWrVTr8p9ukq1td6Q6vLPYI8h-A7PtEqKHELV6IG-uwEljUASjIAyVA==, https://vertexaisea... | true | 2 | null | 0.85 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,415 | 4,654 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | -0.162519 |
Will the Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) stock price close at a daily value higher than its December 11, 2025, close on at least ten different trading days by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there are 10 or more trading days between December 12, 2025, and January 31, 2026, where the daily closing price of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL:NSE or RIL:BSE) is higher than the closing price recorded on December 11, 2025. Data will be verified using the National Stock Exchange o... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | deee102e-d506-4d8d-a491-366738add212 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Reliance leads India's stock benchmarks towards record high levels (published on 2025-11-19 by reuters.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: India's Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex rose about 0.5% to near record highs, led by Reliance Industries. R... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the event "Will the Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) stock price close at a daily value higher than its December 11, 2025, close on at least ten different trading days by January 31, 2026?" resolves to Yes.
We need to consider the context (n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGh-OfBp_DaK556EuDAbzhNzNXORjzaFijvfx0lhCHoGgCT6vAblii1MiIjaGxFfOppd2tWkM_s6R_lU6KeT2cDwguPKDNRA2I--AUBvzOuRI9_00Poeg_AZoWs-hupa3y1B1SDbENJhihixZQFGAmB | true | 2 | null | 0.62 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,561 | 7,084 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | -0.478036 |
Will the Tamil Nadu Department of Handlooms and Textiles fully clear all pending 2025 wages for the production of free dhotis and sarees by January 10, 2026? | 2026-01-11T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Tamil Nadu government or the Federation of Tamil Nadu Powerloom Associations confirms that 100% of the pending wages for dhoti and saree production manufactured up to November 30, 2025, have been disbursed to weavers by the deadline of January 10, 2026. If any portion of these spec... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-11T00:00:00 | 6da48db8-a12e-4f60-a739-58dc59c74ca7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tamil Nadu Department of Handlooms and Textiles pending 2025 wages free dhotis sarees timeline; free dhotis sarees 2025 wages cleared Tamil Nadu handlooms textiles January 2026; Tamil Nadu handloom weavers wage arrears 2025 free ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated forecast (probability) that the Tamil Nadu Department of Handlooms and Textiles will fully clear all pending 2025 wages for production of free dhotis and sarees by Jan 10 2026, given current date Dec 11 2025.
We must consider context: "Recent news arti... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFYTr2q1Wz6R1ongkTpHtbXIItTLOmprgpK-eeFgPc3ThwXsTj9dhwJFlRpWrE4BYNdlGfABLudp_gRBBUTCx7wAEpjUuH8jpgUKAyIfmcr1QMDAd9t4crKcnBKixfuJnSqjGNhqcqVSRbVWT0_r7HEVal8cSp2QHz3Zz1XSzMt_QRDunUn-5mDtyAaWY8FErcrdjrghlDNd6ozGmO0QkUoTCi3vitLSbjdfTaIDk74ZFejXig= | true | 2 | null | 0.23 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 426 | 1,447 | null | -0.261365 | 0.0529 | -0.261365 |
Will the Government of Karnataka, or specifically the Chief Minister's Office, publicly announce ex-gratia compensation of at least 200,000 INR per family for the drowning victims Vishwanath and Maruti from GR Halli before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a official statement from the Karnataka State Government, the Chief Minister's Relief Fund (CMRF), or the Chitradurga District Administration confirms that a financial compensation of at least 200,000 INR per victim has been sanctioned for the families of Vishwanath (23) and Maruti (19... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | e4a4611c-3b53-4c5f-b74f-f5ffc83f8e97 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Karnataka ex-gratia compensation GR Halli drowning Vishwanath Maruti; CMO Karnataka ex-gratia 200000 drowning victims; Government of Karnataka compensation announced drowning victims date; Vishwanath Maruti GR Halli drowning comp... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the Government of Karnataka, specifically the Chief Minister's Office, will publicly announce ex-gratia compensation of at least INR 200,000 per family for drowning victims Vishwanath (23) and Maruti (19) from GR Halli before March 1, 2026. ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFghuX_7pcF-KazqgEAICsa24puTSHgkR75OaKzocfVQZNPS5MWCcpxB7REaMzstoD1R_vdhqduCNTcyfl4ZYxuOj4V0NJNca4rkskvKWRI7BJThAJjkASsn9KHvqsKI-MZXW9k2N3VfnVWqaBCASdIAFmfI2SB7Yfe4tAMRmoA1OAW31QPvlZpZYmY_64Scx4LNyqfCNnC-GiUVImik068oJBeS05DNnmXEqemYGWJGCyDSd-EU8EZWe_7t... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 438 | 2,594 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Tamil Nadu government officially announce a new solar subsidy program specifically for powerloom rooftop solar systems before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 11, 2025, and March 1, 2026, the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu or the Department of Handlooms and Textiles formally announces a new financial subsidy or incentive scheme specifically targeting the installation of rooftop solar panels on powerloom units, following the r... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 6696fe25-b537-4b6f-8ee6-7982020bdfce | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tamil Nadu government solar subsidy powerloom rooftop solar announcement; Tamil Nadu powerloom rooftop solar scheme subsidy; Tamil Nadu new subsidy program solar rooftop deadline March 2026; Tamil Nadu rooftop solar subsidy gover... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast for the probability that Tamil Nadu government will officially announce a new solar subsidy program specifically for powerloom rooftop solar systems before March 1, 2026.
We are given:
- Today's date: 2025-12-11
- Close date: 2026-03-01 (i.e., abo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEnWSlNzeApKYgL0CnRJZO7yxU0WWA0MhoPpPV4pPc3uR8aYDxMhQM-d6fk4QxJgotEYZdfW3OxrvGDQbwquWqXM6nnZR3N1CYc7WaiT5EUc_JSYqf0bePsSPZC-RXgPUb9riqUuPPm9Pi8BnNW6kwtQOEGS_omhQn7dsoa_Ugu34m4i5R_u0xdVdwonYEaFaK2iLYcVoURUX0Aj6Gy3HkBvKPyEnqrGwsQ0SSBAfBQogmwv-Fa, https:/... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 390 | 1,602 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Ministry of Education of India grant formal approval for the establishment of the Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya at Mattur-Hosahalli before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ministry of Education or its autonomous organization, Maharshi Sandipani Rashtriya Veda Vidya Pratishthan (MSRVVP), issues a formal approval, sanction letter, or official announcement for the establishment of a Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya at Mattur-Hosahalli (near Shivamogga) ... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 8d9bc94b-85fd-4621-9db2-27757ff8292b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya Mattur-Hosahalli approval; Ministry of Education formal approval Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya; Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya establishment approval timeline 2025 2026; Mattur-Hosahalli Rash... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: We need to forecast probability that the Ministry of Education of India (MoE) or its autonomous organization MSRVVP will grant formal approval for establishing a Rashtriya Adarsha Veda Vidyalaya at Mattur-Hosahalli (near Shivamogga) by March 31, 2026. The question date is 2025-12... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHMSh1_Z2eBRuDV9LEdIXWm4zqxigK9ZkolcYj_L46WJdciXK6GYZr_CbTXLaP88ulL3-oa3Xm8PUzIY4a4s7SwQvb9R1JDoQ9xEKyAGvh1cuTJSIYeC5RetJCuoMbJjPcAuhmKBl3bKybN2lu-PGBuFbGLlRFtA4oJx7ljbkAdLnHKgpZFmEg38Q==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 424 | 645 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will a petition for a writ of certiorari be filed with the U.S. Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality of any tariff imposed by President Donald Trump under Section 232 or Section 301 before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a petition for a writ of certiorari is filed in a case involving the constitutionality or statutory authority of tariffs (specifically Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974) implemented during Donald Trump's presidential term, as documen... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 81f068c0-6542-4e60-b21b-b9bf385e378d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Costco Sues US to Protect Rights in Pending Tariff Case (published on 2025-12-02 by mexicobusiness.news) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Costco sued the U.S. government to protect its ability to recover tariff payments if the Supreme Court... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that a petition for a writ of certiorari will be filed with the US Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality of any tariff imposed by President Donald Trump under Section 232 or Section 301 before April 1, 2026.
We have context: there is a n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGkiBMaXZa-0ODPERmzynCXGbprx6EmeeL0R3XjBg21pWuFIyWHPvKpoU9nXVXEnL-WXq_8QdqIF7H0P6kfaM20VWSIuqp5mzm8w23nrp4gSHjs_UP0GkkTKEhoPxUcHpv0wP5LVFjLsfIlPA2CdgbJtBwnXbKeXrL-AyfRb-W_egS4yG6qAvQK6cJV4rmZ-ZcZWsV4hqonkcLhLrm3D44ES6f9tJbexYXTbRVDm1QTReeoW_D9ql2Q6CWaZ... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,937 | 4,026 | null | -2.65926 | 0.8649 | -2.65926 |
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be appointed to a formal position within the Donald Trump administration before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if an official announcement is made by the White House or Donald Trump that Marjorie Taylor Greene has been appointed to a Senate-confirmed role, a senior advisor role, or any titled position within the executive branch by February 15, 2026. Given the article describes a rift where Trump c... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 4da2b3bf-8c01-4b2a-9d26-5b14933e94bd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Who will replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress? (published on 2025-11-25 by ajc.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced she is resigning from Congress after a bitter, very public falling out wit... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability that Marjorine Taylor Greene will be appointed to a formal position within the Donald Trump administration before February 15, 2026. The question is: will she be appointed to a Senate-confirmed role, senior advisor role, or any titled positio... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFmN-gYtIzQ_D75UmeoaXg9AzuuMFu89KffWzFOy57vZjP8bNGhrg5PYkUhhJ88D-eiuCp_ACBor7B3qfVdwqxzSwRO6ap6UWfy5EwxLRNfEhuMToi4fxbclXXdanNMw5ZPdT3_fQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHlWKzRYhS1tbfJy2wMeXUVNVOpU-TI3___BzmYJemP... | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,147 | 2,376 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | -0.061875 |
Will a special election be held to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's vacated seat in Georgia's 14th congressional district before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a special election (general or runoff) for Georgia's 14th congressional district is officially conducted on or before March 1, 2026, to fill the vacancy created by Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation as described in the article. If no such election occurs by this date, or if it is sche... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 94bbc376-e9f0-4870-85c3-89f0eca9c972 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] March special election likely to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat (published on 2025-11-22 by wrdw.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A special election to fill U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's 14th congressional seat is likely in Ma... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability forecast that a special election will be held to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's vacated seat in Georgia's 14th district before March 1, 2026, given the context.
We must treat known facts as true. Need to examine the context: there is an upcoming ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG-u_jNuEC3owoSdRPl8Bjv_We7ilp0juMJo28yyG-t28l6xyD5XqRe8_jF-mrz7MdGLmKtzZNfLJae2tdWK2cTUM_Ik9MRZq5D9nMXb18UpYbDU2vRlvLYJ9Rr8MO_FFYdIrbljOk=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE6aSnbsd0Q63owANk6xfUq-fqMY8GCqVOd0k43Jxk7... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,163 | 2,435 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will at least one representative of the Donald Trump administration be publicly confirmed to have attended an in-person meeting in Europe with representatives from both Ukraine and Russia regarding a peace agreement by December 22, 2025? | 2025-12-22T00:00:00 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a major news outlet (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) or an official White House release confirms that a US administration official (such as Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner) participated in an in-person meeting on European soil that included officials from both the Ukrainian and Russian go... | null | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-22T00:00:00 | b5890bcd-c9ff-416a-8743-282811b2cee2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Europeans accuse Putin of feigning interest in peace after talks with U.S. envoys stall (published on 2025-12-03 by pbs.org) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Ukraine and European allies accused Vladimir Putin of stalling peace talks after f... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We are to give calibrated forecast probability that at least one representative of the Donald Trump administration (US administration official; though the administration left office in Jan 2025? Actually it's 2025 - day after Trump is not in office?). Wait, the question: "Will at least one... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEBkaQGNW6QOBOrDpxWWmpT-lP0sWVu_4SpEPJiInyRBuYbkILFt956CRcbWdDv8FbzEmuk8XxE1UOBNgbKz3qYFQKoCoB9_7AfLsCqLTkPM92pojtSWoCU9oYB_xuLT-qTgDmLXognpUVj59Fg, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFXKBt0Vlgt_JiC3rUyQbuxyKxjkWc5tghI... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,047 | 2,150 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the Trump administration officially rescind the September 19 presidential proclamation regarding the $100,000 H-1B visa fee before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the President of the United States or a delegated official issuing a formal executive order or proclamation officially revokes or rescinds the $100,000 visa entry fee policy first introduced in the September 19, 2025 proclamation. This must be a formal reversal published via the Federa... | null | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 331b4a4f-80ea-4215-a294-f9d909b99fb8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] $100,000 H-1B Fee Immigration Case Moves Closer To A Conclusion (published on 2025-12-11 by forbes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Plaintiffs (U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Association of American Universities) filed a reply opposing t... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast probability (0-1) that the Trump administration will officially rescind the September 19 presidential proclamation regarding the $100,000 H-1B visa fee before Feb 1, 2026. Today is Dec 12, 2025. The close date is about 1.5 months away (Feb 1, 20... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE6YfsFitkoyBT29yLQBlqQFOBhGYW-rdf2QFutIrr3zUCYBjS6q-BWDoa3moGhn0iMsddeGYNMxpC8SFpvoyVcAUGPYhbfv8ySLX21yevVV3DbxfMLvy46t7aIxcf3DfVCaNjhvuUKzQ7ySaT0NQojkgI1NrMgFiUPj5X2yxsYqoz2_11f38c1CpLt-pegUi6j4I2LYSxFK0YJDjhzhZ8MsymA587q5bg=, https://vertexaisearch.... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,270 | 2,300 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will the Andhra Pradesh State Cabinet formally approve the additional allocation of at least ₹3,000 crore specifically for the Pula Subbaiah Veligonda Reservoir Project before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Andhra Pradesh State Cabinet or the State Finance Department officially announces or publishes a Government Order (GO) sanctioning at least ₹3,000 crore in additional funds specifically for the Veligonda project between December 13, 2025, and March 15, 2026. This must be reported b... | null | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | cca5ff76-1623-4a19-8ced-b8f02e6730ca | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
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"search_query": "Andhra Pradesh State Cabinet approval additional allocation ₹3000 crore Pula Subbaiah Veligonda Reservoir Project; Pula Subbaiah Veligonda Reservoir Project additional funds 3000 crore cabinet meeting date; Pula Subbaiah Veligond... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a probability that the Andhra Pradesh State Cabinet will formally approve the additional allocation of at least ₹3,000 crore specifically for the Pula Subbaiah Veligonda Reservoir Project before March 15, 2026, given today's date Dec 12 2025, and given that the only cont... | https://www.google.com/search?q=time+in+IN, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGCyve0EqTvcrN0-6bEcxx0IUAYxSeH3ZrSAbHGY3qLASlXcQQRuwLJ7dQJzAXJWvW0-u5C1K5Gd4sa7yyG_36AjCLs3uVrbZNloEhVn9lMZ2_OoJ6PD4OJDfxPRczyxo59GiMAAUM414jtUXYtzwr8hg79-RnACdKruV1FG6kX0KoH51ixU1ouoC7FMiFMgQG_VVYEV3n3reh8U... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 415 | 1,189 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will a United States federal court issue a preliminary injunction or a permanent ruling to block the enforcement of the $100,000 H-1B visa entry fee by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM ET on January 15, 2026, a federal judge (such as Judge Howell in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia) issues an order, preliminary injunction, or permanent injunction that legally prevents the U.S. government from collecting the $100,000 H-1B entry fee est... | null | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | a23da802-b46a-4f7c-b192-7acf976135c3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration's new $100,000 H-1B visa fees could leave rural health care as collateral damage (published on 2025-12-10 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Rural hospitals say Trump's September proclamation creates a new... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that a United States federal court will issue a preliminary injunction or permanent ruling to block the enforcement of the $100,000 H-1B visa entry fee by Jan 15, 2026. The context includes recent news up to Dec 12 2025. Need to weigh the evidenc... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFSbe85bRf3Dxxxaj6cuNDol3JA7lYAT3WERg4JmuzNlW8dcDELJRvfU8yo8gOW5a0A9LfhBOtWUsNHA6Bk2KzdF1kutJBdJ_ZA0lDuJ6COzxVFdhU0XdxM-rXdIEo5Bw0BSYq-yzWDhXybdQ_3jxs7ro6BT8UbE4Lkt8g6i_umIQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGPsQjI... | true | 2 | null | 0.48 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,588 | 4,426 | null | -0.653926 | 0.2304 | -0.653926 |
Will the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announce the approval of at least one 'Trump Gold Card' individual or corporate visa application by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if USCIS, the Department of State, or a formal White House release confirms that the first individual or corporate sponsorship 'Gold Card' (the $1 million or $2 million residency shortcut program launched in December 2025) has been officially approved. Approval means the legal granting of... | null | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 42f204b2-1448-4529-910b-dd994f50ac9d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump launches $1m 'gold card' immigration visas (published on 2025-12-10 by bbc.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: President Donald Trump launched the \"Trump Gold Card,\" offering fast-tracked US visas to wealthy applicants who can pay... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated forecast for the event: "Will the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announce the approval of at least one 'Trump Gold Card' individual or corporate visa application by April 1, 2026?". Current date is Dec 12 2025. So we have about 3.5 mo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHY8HAHuhLgNVdFZGnc1Vxl1sc97GtMaDpOAkCxaZ2sz01yvK_iKbRp526AuuN1W0kFXaDuFL9gIhrxcvQTA-5ksYxA3TAIjS4Xbh6vsSN9s3e5CUQJtPK-C2_vy_kHwXL6Ed_YfGMqs_m03ByHqJTJ7qC-dQoqAI_-UqkKsK9iN7lSV25kMxEt_Eougvr1R3FF, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-r... | true | 2 | null | 0.2 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,173 | 4,093 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 | -0.223144 |
Will Bareilly Mayor Umesh Gautam be appointed to a state-level executive position within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Uttar Pradesh unit before February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official announcement from the BJP Uttar Pradesh state headquarters or the party's official social media channels names Dr. Umesh Gautam to a state executive committee role (e.g., State Vice President, General Secretary, or Secretary) between December 12, 2025, and February 28, 2026... | null | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 0beaf4fb-4843-401f-9858-e083dc0bb832 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Umesh Gautam Bareilly mayor BJP Uttar Pradesh appointment; BJP Uttar Pradesh state-level appointment mayor Umesh Gautam; BJP Uttar Pradesh executive committee appointment 2025 2026 mayor; Umesh Gautam party role appointment rumor... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for whether Bareilly Mayor Umesh Gautam will be appointed to a state-level executive position within BJP Uttar Pradesh unit before Feb 28, 2026, i.e., within about 2.5 months from today (Dec 12, 2025). We have to consider context and knowledge up t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGfC-Yf_ky0sngRC6GHQ45sPVnJVC9KcGi1OiQFlWj-f_fY8Z7gI2M0AyI_hzzh3Cpx3k1EKD1syY98Ujg_yeWDIL78vfgcYkAn_gSYeTavB_h0t3HHzevR64GPcjeHhXw0pT9NA0JyISMCFogdWTav6LGyetB4b1-jJdB9XUpEst3roYEJnw71SHrXYwVWEE51Bam5JyGqYB2PBgZP5KWfRtbBtwQsLPANnXur0fvqTgeUdyEbouLmvxrFx... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 396 | 1,445 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will the 24-year-old surviving suspect in the December 14, 2025, Bondi Beach shooting be formally charged with a terrorism offence under the Australian Criminal Code by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the 24-year-old male suspect identified by New South Wales Police as the second shooter in the December 14, 2025, Bondi Beach attack is formally charged by Australian authorities with at least one 'terrorism offence' (as defined under the Crimes Act 1914 or the Criminal Code Act 1995, su... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | 19e9e9e1-22fa-4d25-b00f-c5bb1ce6ddb8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Father, son behind Bondi shooting declared terror attack, 16 people have died - News (published on 2025-12-13 by indailysa.com.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Sixteen people died, including a child and one of the gunmen, after two men ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by 15 Feb 2026 (roughly 2 months after event) the surviving suspect (24-year-old male) will be formally charged with a terrorism offence under Australian Criminal Code or Crimes Act.
We have given context from article 1: says "NSW Police said the incid... | null | null | null | null | 0.3 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,418 | 3,542 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 | -1.203973 |
Will the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) officially raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'Probable' or higher by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 14, 2025, and January 15, 2026, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) or the Australian Government officially announces that the National Terrorism Threat Level has been increased to 'Probable', 'High', or 'Certain'. This must be verified via an offic... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 27aa20cf-39a6-42cb-92a1-83e5cfe35bec | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: In Canberra, a 17-year-old white teen was arrested on 5 Nov 2025 on Ngunnawal land... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that ASIO will officially raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to "Probable" or higher (i.e., Probable, High, Certain) by Jan 15, 2026. Today is Dec 14, 2025. The time window is about one month (32 days). The context includes some news items:
1. Article... | null | null | null | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,174 | 2,861 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
By February 15, 2026, will the Australian Federal Government introduce or formally announce a new legislative proposal to further restrict firearm licensing or ban specific categories of firearms in response to the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 14, 2025, and February 15, 2026, the Australian Prime Minister, Attorney-General, or the Minister for Home Affairs makes a formal public announcement of new federal legislative proposals, or introduces a bill into the Parliament of Australia, that specifically tighte... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-19T00:00:00 | 2dddf878-9dc7-4272-b132-584bccf75190 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Committee on 2/12/2025 (published on 2025-12-04 by aph.gov.au) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Home Affairs updated senators on QONs: two published; four in clearance to be tabled; 20 with Minister's office sent 17–28 Nov. For 120 QONs tab... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian Federal Government will introduce or formally announce a new legislative proposal to further restrict firearm licensing or ban specific categories of firearms in response to a December 2025 Bondi Beach attack, by Feb 15 2026.
We have to cons... | null | null | null | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,152 | 1,947 | null | -2.995732 | 0.9025 | -2.995732 |
Will a criminal complaint or indictment be filed in a Rhode Island state court against any individual for the murders of the victims of the December 2025 Brown University shooting before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, before March 15, 2026, a person is formally charged in a Rhode Island Superior or District Court with murder or manslaughter in relation to the shooting event that occurred at Brown University's Providence campus on December 13, 2025. Charges must be documented in a public court filing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-18T00:00:00 | 5b5ee7c3-2d6c-4d91-a93f-547b1c0f6c65 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Live updates: Police release new photos, videos of suspect in Brown University shooting (published on 2025-12-13 by browndailyherald.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: On Dec. 13, a mass shooting at Brown's Barus & Holley killed two stud... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for whether a criminal complaint or indictment will be filed in a Rhode Island state court against any individual for the murders of the victims of the December 2025 Brown University shooting before March 15, 2026.
We have context: The shooting oc... | null | null | null | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,991 | 2,182 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | -1.514128 |
Will the Providence Police Department or the Rhode Island State Police officially name or announce the arrest of a specific suspect in connection with the December 13, 2025, shooting at Brown University by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 15, 2026, the Providence Police Department, Brown University Department of Public Safety, Rhode Island State Police, or the Rhode Island Office of the Attorney General publicly identifies a specific suspect by name or announces the apprehension/arrest of an indivi... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-18T00:00:00 | 8ad5fb5f-3459-4a3b-9044-c0db1da57279 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Person of interest arrested in deadly Brown University shooting (published on 2025-12-13 by bostonherald.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Providence officials said people can \"breathe easier\" after a person of interest in the Dec. 13... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for the event that "Will the Providence Police Department or the Rhode Island State Police officially name or announce the arrest of a specific suspect in connection with the December 13, 2025, shooting at Brown University by January 15, 2026?"
We ... | null | null | null | null | 0.4 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,094 | 7,391 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 | -0.916291 |
Will the Providence Police Department or the FBI announce that a suspect has been taken into custody in connection with the December 13, 2025, shooting at Brown University by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 15, 2026, either the Providence Police Department, the Rhode Island State Police, or the FBI officially announces the arrest or custody of a suspect related to the shooting that occurred at the Barus and Holley building on December 13, 2025. This includes cases wh... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-18T00:00:00 | 97711613-80ee-4d08-9dd0-d0c86e6f7524 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Brown University shooting: what we know so far about the attack in Providence, Rhode Island (published on 2025-12-13 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Two people were killed and nine others wounded in a Dec. 13, 2025 shoo... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for the event: "Will the Providence Police Department or the FBI announce that a suspect has been taken into custody in connection with the December 13, 2025, shooting at Brown University by January 15, 2026?"
We have to base probability on availa... | null | null | null | null | 0.2 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,090 | 5,004 | null | -1.609438 | 0.64 | -1.609438 |
Will the Australian Government raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or 'Certain' by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Australian National Security agency or the Director-General of Security formally upgrades the National Terrorism Threat Level from 'Possible' (the level as of late 2024/2025) to 'High' (Probable) or 'Certain' (Imminent) following the December 14, 2025 Bondi Beach attack. The update m... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 203945aa-2352-4639-8fab-5a5cfcd9b970 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: On 5 Nov 2025, federal police arrested a 17-year-old white Australian male on Ngun... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the Australian Government will raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or 'Certain' by Jan 15, 2026, given context.
The context consists of news articles and perhaps background knowledge about Australian threat level system. We ne... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFq8zXnU1L3eTCrYzbn5T9r5d1fNfwKiwumXf_aZBYGlHSLif1e4tlZQaE3ulVRnEggteV1awpiCSYrIne35o88WmDo1AH5mWD3CZyExyqROiqniI6N91RFp6LW_vZ24FslSyG-dnB18CpImJR6QiEJW33-uE7EIy-dh9OBICEObk3jiAz5qSccTwIszcOdJtDjEehw, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | true | 2 | null | 0.33 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,538 | 2,230 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 | -0.400478 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice announce the opening of a federal hate crime investigation into the December 13, 2025 Brown University shooting before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) or the FBI issues an official public statement or press release between December 14, 2025, and March 1, 2026, explicitly stating they have opened a hate crime investigation into the shooting that occurred at Brown University's Barus and Holley buildin... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | f34d2555-fa33-465e-8f31-0d6757783cae | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Brown University shooting: what we know so far about the attack in Providence, Rhode Island (published on 2025-12-13 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Two people were killed and nine others wounded in a Dec. 13 shooting a... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will announce opening of a federal hate crime investigation into the December 13, 2025 Brown University shooting before March 1, 2026.
We have limited context: a news article (Guardian) about the shooting. Several other articles about DOJ's behavio... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEStGNBo-SQSLzZfuPVJ0getGapLnvXHIIQVgfc3mRrWJupBr-YpiWNsgi-R0Xv4ubAg_CVpN8WB_O2flXhl6dn-e5wqFauXrbTNnwXkqUjQIAG1YjZlST2UdeJofeDTGfETqZ3gBEHv9NvFhWeaxmT5KA-9CdU5g==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEpIwQPCrrppwc5i-g... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,068 | 2,827 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will Christina Hull Paxson resign or announce her resignation from her position as President of Brown University on or before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Christina Hull Paxson officially resigns or publicly announces her intention to step down as the President of Brown University between December 13, 2025, and March 1, 2026, following the shooting on campus. Official university statements or major media reports (e.g., AP, NYT, Reuters) ... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 60ddef4c-31fc-4eaf-8894-ed17f9be353a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'A deeply tragic day for Brown,' school president says after mass shooting (published on 2025-12-13 by nbcboston.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Brown University President Christina H. Paxson issued a statement Saturday night after a ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast probability that Christina Hull Paxson (President of Brown University) will resign or announce her resignation (i.e., step down) on or before March 1, 2026, given that there was a mass shooting on campus on Dec 13, 2025. The period in question i... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEJLEpZ1ftyM9wXoBs0ZfZ_Xj24Pnkxy7Sj9mC1ZhMBJkz696iOUKIUaXHwgpzz7GRBJsQgU_59QTqGYFgGiRTn4dIsSdj5xsugM_cKZKRoarcSx9yaZ4LXQstmMR45TItpfd9ZOuc9_U5pJV1yzv0cKnh5HkCOBSfL6NHxgIGO3Tg6a59bpiowK5Ijaa6xdnO6u1GgT10ld-NetMW8OyJlB7yh_k-2XlqLG5RxPYD0kddYTJrFx9LYweZp... | true | 2 | null | 0.02 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,367 | 2,153 | null | -0.020203 | 0.0004 | -0.020203 |
Will the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or 'Certain' before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, the Australian Government through ASIO formally updates the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or 'Certain'. As of the seed date, the level is 'Probable'. The change must be officially published on the National Security Australi... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 3d1033ad-3671-420a-9118-6f6647e0e611 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: On 5 Nov 2025, federal police arrested a 17-year-old white Australian male on Ngun... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that ASIO will raise national terrorism threat level to "High" or "Certain" before March 1, 2026 (i.e., between Dec 14 2025 and Feb 28 2026). Currently (as of seed date) level is "Probable". The context includes some news articles about terrorism threats, et... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpzAtVEKt7zy24JpUfF-O1nMt72iwvPIh8Id39KSHjHkXyiP3NFKOszQX2jqdXYt5rcGieUGRax1YT3ceYYkfoHGgC8Qj0HQuSwbp_SQnClL1zPftKC3snuBYvyVD2KkrPFGw0I6XvZ9rVDZJkJkuAmQBBmcj8rSpArRaCCYxR, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHD2Zg16BMa... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,450 | 1,726 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee sign any new legislation into law that further restricts the possession or sale of firearms before March 14, 2026? | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 14, 2025, and March 14, 2026, Governor Dan McKee signs into law any bill passed by the Rhode Island General Assembly that creates new restrictions on gun ownership, magazine capacity, or sales (excluding the expansion of the existing assault weapon ban already mention... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | 7b2a3d52-b35c-4d8c-b890-4d2ecc6b5c01 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Brown University shooting condemned by Trump, Patriots and Govs. Healey, McKee (published on 2025-12-13 by masslive.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: A fatal shooting on Brown University's campus Saturday night left two dead and eight i... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee will sign any new legislation (into law) that further restricts possession or sale of firearms before March 14, 2026. The timeframe is Dec 14 2025 (today) to March 14 2026 (about 3 months). So we need to assess likelihood... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF3FhrySxCwp1xqJ2KXlUireqkqCMoqnWAT2Qbg1x8Z0UScNAOarCC6POMwhiZggZedfTxY3K2m8dDoWdy340Db3S7-PhgpK0zs3mzRtZHJzyZNKqhyqlSArhDpOBYDqSxL9jwUGUEQJYd24WrTI3DAljjtTpzWFGJ3ecc_xN_9Xm7zP_gIauJAkju9PR5v8oVBtaB_k42mSw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,449 | 2,191 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the Australian Government or the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or its equivalent before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Government or ASIO officially announces a raise in the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' (or any higher category adopted in a new system) between December 14, 2025, and March 1, 2026. The baseline for current levels is 'Possible'. Resolution will be determined b... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 0388e009-102e-4ebd-80ba-f40a0c54cff5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] The Changing Character of Terrorism and U.S. Counterterrorism (published on 2025-11-24 by ctc.westpoint.edu) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Terrorism and counterterrorism function like an interactive game: each side adapts to the other. T... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We are to produce a probability estimate that the Australian Government or ASIO will raise the national terrorism threat level to "High" (or equivalent) between Dec 14 2025 and March 1 2026.
We need to consider background knowledge: what is Australia's current terrorism threat level, hist... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEOYMIfsvNNm2sd-mYWQSjQL4hdbkihzx6wYU3L-AhEDF--l97L5al0e9bUkN2JsOly9Obwne3oEFYhRV0cTgYNWAaxv9fC02NgCBOGLKkupCU7ngb6IGOMJI4xb3cIwxcUAfvKlUOc2tB-7ZVkQUXWvrrECPrTEgF7OxpKrwZHVmtcJ3xNDPMIzCd9xjPqY9lh78aPms-VIQh90bA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.03 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,431 | 1,533 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | -0.030459 |
Will Brown University officially announce a policy change requiring mandatory badge-only access for all exterior campus building doors before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-02T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Brown University issues an official administrative announcement or policy update by March 1, 2026, stating that all exterior doors of campus buildings (not just classrooms) will transition to mandatory electronic badge/ID access at all times. This follows reports that the Barus & Holl... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-11T00:00:00 | 1c289b9a-9ccc-4ccd-8dfa-b473b8cef7bd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Brown University mandatory badge-only access exterior doors announcement; site:brown.edu badge-only access policy exterior doors; Brown University campus access control exterior doors badge readers timeline 2025 2026; Brown Unive... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast probability that Brown University will officially announce a campus-wide mandatory badge-only access policy for all exterior campus building doors before March 1, 2026.
We need to consider context: We have only description of a shooting incident on... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH7fzxHx9xEquCGPvLc9jXbo48NgunP021PZll7jgV1yG9_UcFCr9OtGU53v-k6_YRjMLnAZPMvG-WRwHQ5I6_rPCX9jcU1mjmPnNp3qoDdJTrRJW5WgvzYPYodt2qcjRw8PewD-vuhHVNXjNpYm9dMItcVUdkWKWhlJLxHUVHqVS-_tJZluUQS0uA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 396 | 1,492 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will the Parliament of New South Wales pass a bill that amends the Firearms Act 1996 to further restrict firearm licensing requirements before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Parliament of New South Wales passes legislation that amends the 'Firearms Act 1996' to tighten eligibility, storage, or category requirements for firearm licenses by the close date. This must be verifiable via the official NSW Parliament website or major news outlets (ABC, Sydney Mo... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | cd1f6757-5b46-4630-85ae-e033a254043d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "New South Wales Firearms Act 1996 amending bill licensing requirements 2025; NSW Parliament firearms licensing bill second reading committee 2026; Parliament of New South Wales Firearms Act amendments restrain licensing requireme... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability that NSW Parliament will pass a bill amending the Firearms Act 1996 to further restrict firearm licensing requirements before March 1, 2026.
We have the date: today is Dec 14 2025. The close date is March 1 2026 (~2.5 months away). We need to eva... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFa3TqjBRHP6Cfp2bWRCmv8kUYhwzc6jzWjecl7kp8lZfBVyQaGJNeRP3ZvNOzufA4wHRGBf2Ak3KqrDfeCYpHxFNmjAJ0kfuFRZXI1ktzdht9VyxZBH7zzxEMWsmAVON-sqwmBl2-Bh19kT-tnJv_OqsZpyZU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3P3lp06KXwJPLD_1CwPrX... | true | 2 | null | 0.27 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 391 | 2,825 | null | -1.309333 | 0.5329 | -1.309333 |
Will at least one survivor or family member of a deceased victim of the December 2025 Brown University shooting file a civil lawsuit against Brown University by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a civil complaint is filed in any U.S. state or federal court by a victim (injured party) or a representative of a deceased victim of the December 14, 2025 shooting, naming 'Brown University' (or its governing body) as a defendant. The lawsuit must allege negligence, inadequate security,... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 9cf7cf76-9eaf-48bd-81ea-5f3c9800eb88 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Brown University shooting: what we know so far about the attack in Providence, Rhode Island (published on 2025-12-13 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Two people were killed and nine others wounded in a Brown University s... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability forecast that at least one survivor or family member of a deceased victim of the December 2025 Brown University shooting files a civil lawsuit against Brown University by March 1, 2026.
We have context: date is Dec 14, 2025 (today). The shoo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFMb_Vs9vjxf1_BlNrzzpuh8qKHuWiZ6YZdzMJc1Z58bCPS5k720zWRDlYg2ykEciOSNscOmqwjEPA8_fGqz4_e6So1OfVFINcZUs9DOAEp5bosq0C9FSm2PIcfx_zG-yoYrK_hTSBKebeGwhfShOTqVVOSZQrSqc92Cw408SPgHQG-qwDFklKAVpBLIHeNSbmDwSDop3hma3QZ2ZMB8QoDGt9ZrYV31ReSnBne0AbBIqMqqVtJzAgHh_jTC... | true | 2 | null | 0.38 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,545 | 4,924 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | -0.478036 |
Will the Rhode Island General Assembly introduce a bill specifically cited as a response to the December 13, 2025, Brown University shooting that proposes a statewide ban on 'assault weapons' before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, a member of the Rhode Island House of Representatives or Senate formally introduces a bill that includes a ban on the sale or possession of 'assault weapons' (as defined by the bill text) and explicitly references the December 2025 sho... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-27T00:00:00 | bc6fcdae-f568-4ef1-aeef-88bbc447b6b8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Police search Brown University after shooter kills 2 and injures 9 on campus (published on 2025-12-13 by latimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: At Brown University in Providence, R.I., a gunman dressed in black killed at least two pe... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that a Rhode Island General Assembly bill specifically citing the Dec 13, 2025 Brown University shooting, proposing a statewide ban on assault weapons, will be introduced before March 1, 2026 (i.e., between Dec 14, 2025 and Feb 28, 2026). Need to think about... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH5HSvJVQQ3g6E8J1GSmKdpFM1THD_SQ0_Q0WKjnmaiyASbuOQFoPDyi8Lt5YjJKhOlieMFduyfXMks-iSblPfSlns8nFMdnMJpKma9ktmpllDqIr5aaw6Pii8lXfcoFlxafA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHoqshh4bg05A0X4MYuEBxrGKMi9rK2x68cAUH1fBd-hGZK... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,405 | 2,025 | null | -2.65926 | 0.8649 | -2.65926 |
Will the Australian federal government or the New South Wales state government introduce legislation to create a new register for 'prohibited firearms parts' or further restrict high-capacity magazines before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a bill is formally introduced into either the Australian Federal Parliament or the New South Wales Parliament that explicitly aims to amend current gun control laws to further restrict firearm components, high-capacity magazines, or semi-automatic parts, citing the Bondi Beach shootin... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 11a85890-1138-4194-b94c-3b5c63afcea0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What Americans should know about winter travel to Mexico amid increased caution advisory (published on 2025-11-29 by abc7.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The U.S. Embassy warns Americans traveling to Mexico during winter months to hee... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian federal government or NSW state government will introduce legislation to create a new register for 'prohibited firearms parts' or further restrict high-capacity magazines before March 1, 2026. The question references that the Bill must be int... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEJTYEue3INyrpeq8TsWuUw8kDTBOdCxTosunMQdntVScmcAdfx1LAZcWpcfEcFrBK1Y4fxTFV7Z5Zn2KopIc5K0PM9mrUhT9HX16cyXy6XOzWIPzd0R6np7p0Vvm4Jo8W9nR_eoRujV2AziXseJNOZ1_caLLo91e2bClfmuqIQK0uTd6FwYeLEJwPnFeL24UBCNbNIs5Or8khkxuyJCNauVA78YCacQu2ZCJWutPt-, https://vertexa... | true | 2 | null | 0.11 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,412 | 2,168 | null | -2.207275 | 0.7921 | -2.207275 |
Will the Australian Federal Government or the New South Wales State Government formally establish a Royal Commission or a Special Commission of Inquiry to investigate the December 14, 2025, Bondi Beach attack before March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a Royal Commission (Federal) or a Special Commission of Inquiry (State) is officially gazetted or announced by the Prime Minister of Australia or the Premier of New South Wales by March 31, 2026, specifically to investigate the actions of intelligence services (ASIO/Police) or the cir... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | 3571c3ba-bb6d-4fb5-b7a9-a8f3d439a454 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "\"Bondi Beach\" attack December 14 2025 royal commission; \"Bondi Beach\" attack December 14 2025 \"special commission of inquiry\"; Australia federal government Royal Commission established after \"Bondi Beach\" attack; New Sout... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated probability that by 31 March 2026, the Australian Federal Government or NSW State Government will formally establish a Royal Commission (federal) or a Special Commission of Inquiry (state) to investigate the December 14, 2025 Bondi Beach attack, specifi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG73ov8Q9ilUuJBcxvwRXDbHNacYV4hwR3D9JnQCCLoVofag511RSMh_y-_idwcyLMsJnL3Rp8gVfrg0jD9NuKcxYMF0xiruLvA_xZTHELkN916XxCa83vF2HBrjkX6JL3MzuZtoU4IcA0HzsJOVtAPyhpZ34ZilGvYtU_Vui4c3IZGl4uLuncIoTlEKlI=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redir... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 414 | 2,874 | null | -3.218876 | 0.9216 | -3.218876 |
Will the Australian federal government pass and enact a new legislative package or emergency funding bill specifically for Jewish community security infrastructure exceeding $50 million AUD before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian federal parliament passes, and the Governor-General grants Royal Assent to, an act of parliament that specifically allocates new or emergency funding of at least $50 million AUD for the protection, security staffing, or infrastructure of Jewish community sites (synagogu... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 631b70fb-8f08-481e-86d0-039b018294e5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] JFNA Explores Rebuilding, Security, Antisemitism, and the October 8th Jew (published on 2025-11-27 by themedialine.org) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: At JFNA's General Assembly in Washington, DC, leaders Eric Fingerhut and Shira Hutt sai... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability estimate for the question: "Will the Australian federal government pass and enact a new legislative package or emergency funding bill specifically for Jewish community security infrastructure exceeding $50 million AUD before April 1, 2026?" Today's date 2025... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFYo-x2vYvr0BJTiSXTnOKUewXGwxwWKmTl378MRPCEKB8PhjuNuQzzaOATRyTpqmSItvTZZVrw2cHkSeIVC_inyT5VmMldvTdZkNUDJ0Kr253fyjUCzeCvODO_uB7eWUyUk9yo8TNmQ7444r9-d4Gg1KA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFOG06BjH1Dv-u_9f18B8vo_WG9... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,446 | 2,319 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the bystander who disarmed the gunman at Bondi on December 14, 2025, be formally awarded the Cross of Valour or the Star of Courage by the Governor-General of Australia before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor-General of Australia officially announces or bestows either the Cross of Valour or the Star of Courage (as part of the Australian Honours System) to the specific individual identified in the video footage from the December 14, 2025, Bondi shooting for his actions in disarm... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | ce510ceb-8f58-4a54-8fb1-a346e405c765 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Bondi disarmed gunman bystander awarded Cross of Valour Star of Courage; December 14 2025 Bondi gunman disarmed bystander Governor-General honour nomination; Governor-General Australia honours Cross of Valour Star of Courage nomi... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the bystander who disarmed the gunman at Bondi on December 14, 2025, will be formally awarded the Cross of Valour or Star of Courage by the Governor-General of Australia before March 1, 2026.
We have limited context: the question states "NE... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFS44XW2YyB5vC04ATLYZBshm8nkeC_URPgRvNcPbxSQb8EQz6rqJdiWovE5MyR2WAYGwZX0_ltfRIIEvkKkLZXsjAYLZ5-rHZfnnz5NvayVwZo3glFSyeosaZK-KAMCRpaI1U40S1lHumsz9cC0nSK3GY=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGdC1KUsTW2avTRfbrINrwL2kkF... | true | 2 | null | 0.03 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 442 | 2,568 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | -0.030459 |
Will the Rhode Island General Assembly pass, and Governor Dan McKee sign into law, any legislation that moves the effective date of the 2025 assault weapon ban to earlier than July 1, 2026? | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if official Rhode Island legislative records or a public announcement from the Office of the Governor of Rhode Island confirm that an amendment or new bill has been signed into law between December 14, 2025, and March 14, 2026, which advances the effective date of the assault weapon ban (or... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | f2dc6e74-010f-4400-8aa1-2551b53441b7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] How to win elections and influence the State House? The League of RI Businesses has a plan. (published on 2025-11-25 by rhodeislandcurrent.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The League of RI Businesses is opening 40 political action comm... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The problem: we must forecast whether the Rhode Island General Assembly will pass, and Governor Dan McKee will sign into law, any legislation that moves the effective date of the 2025 assault weapon ban to earlier than July 1, 2026, between Dec 14, 2025 and Mar 14, 2026. So we need to eval... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH9d7Vp682jc2H_JQeBrX3yMD3oGwuaTKCprb8OGtze6HbhqcQtfODGtSWpgCWPIAA-isjYYTEHl397LoNK_fpR0z4ducwK6mtSHDWDteHFvqCI6YlpWjwHw5RvHnSaeWbH85o5OHYPyrk3rD1ZJTOMDs8-BmjgOLFxHhNKmhG4BZ20Wz0kyOpdqIfV7DyC3h8NW6U-, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 819 | 2,673 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will the Australian Federal Parliament introduce or pass new legislation to tighten regulations on semi-automatic firearms or ammunition by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a new bill specifically aimed at increasing restrictions, background checks, or bans on semi-automatic firearms or ammunition is formally introduced into the Australian House of Representatives or Senate between December 14, 2025, and March 15, 2026. This is in direct response to the we... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 27588767-c38e-4b74-9d12-4d144d1c0279 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] UK Proposes Systemic Reform of UK REACH, Authorization List and SVHC List Set for Updates (published on 2025-12-12 by cirs-group.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: On Dec 1, 2025, the UK released its Environmental Improvement Plan. Under... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian Federal Parliament will introduce or pass new legislation to tighten regulations on semi-automatic firearms or ammunition by March 15, 2026. The question refers to "Bondi attack". This context is missing; not provided in the excerpt. We assum... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHQdpcmRE9iu-uLSMOhD7hIWmFKdxQ6xweCybkghphoN3RGA6ei1c3FSomHShzHJ94R8nbvseftFDWx7VFDOfp6z97Ch0NPS27NdfIu2VlzDv6iyax65R3897eU43Hkbhz-MITJJsqpTanR1shdd30j1reIV3YG7KmS5rYwd3rLnfD7myuARiPWFdrvDTe8uZHdmrPA096e8hxtV2g0cXEqxnZkGiQQKSvQszAEGNRb7bdPMUnDN187jWHDp... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,145 | 1,683 | null | -2.120264 | 0.7744 | -2.120264 |
Will the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) or the Australian Federal Police (AFP) officially designate the Bondi Beach Hanukkah shooting on December 14, 2025, as a 'terrorist act' by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a senior official from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), the Australian Federal Police (AFP), or the Prime Minister of Australia publicly and explicitly classifies the incident at Bondi Beach on December 14, 2025, as a 'terrorist act' or 'terrorism' in an official... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 5c750406-30f7-4bc6-97bb-2fd70a531a96 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "ASIO terrorist act designation Bondi Beach Hanukkah shooting; Australian Federal Police AFP terrorist act Bondi Beach Hanukkah shooting; Bondi Beach Hanukkah shooting December 14 2025 terrorist act designation March 1 2026; Attor... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a forecast probability (0-1) that ASIO or AFP will officially designate the Bondi Beach Hanukkah shooting (December 14, 2025) as a 'terrorist act' by March 1, 2026.
We have limited context: The news section is blank: "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 420 | 2,161 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the Parliament of New South Wales pass new legislation specifically increasing penalties for antisemitic hate speech or related extremist activities by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the NSW Parliament passes a bill that creates new criminal offenses or heightens existing sentencing guidelines specifically for antisemitic crimes or religious-based hate speech in direct response to the December 14, 2025 shooting. Verifiable via official NSW Parliament Hansard records ... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 4fb042b1-1ca6-4e1a-a329-a74f274c3851 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] NSW cracks down on rise of far-right with new laws (published on 2025-11-21 by lsj.com.au) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A far-right neo-Nazi rally outside NSW Parliament on 8 Nov featured antisemitic slogans (\"Abolish the Jewish Lobby\... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to give a calibrated probability that the NSW Parliament will pass new legislation specifically increasing penalties for antisemitic hate speech or related extremist activities by March 1, 2026.
We have a set of news articles up to Dec 14, 2025.
Let's parse the question carefully... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHPA6H7xBIr1u3aB4fV88axT2Y9BCp_SAMYNuAf_rawNRLggBSzd72Sx_qA1RwuVEesOUC4ZURAsU7iEKvgmUg5fsnRaiTGzL_N6OmxDM17xQ0bHmdDACS8a_asMY_cFVi8uIY6rtpkasZI6CVlS_2lk68=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHoBDlWn5lmLKLmGi9Ya1MgBb0w... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,132 | 2,551 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | -1.514128 |
Will the Australian government increase the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or higher before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 14, 2025, and February 28, 2026, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) or the Australian Government officially announces an increase in the National Terrorism Threat Level from 'Probable' (or its current level) to 'High' or 'Certain'. The change mu... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | a5d5b772-da5d-4c46-8ee0-fe482a4995e5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: In November 2025, federal police arrested a 17-year-old white Australian male in C... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian government will increase National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or higher before March 1, 2026 (i.e., between Dec 14 2025 and Feb 28 2026). We have to base on context – only news article 1 seems relevant to Australian terrorism threat. Oth... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEO4UUTt7lBVa3MkvEcPpCJ9tnp0cmYZTWkgnNrGM23AXQlYuIJhmOYTCeCuGNSM6PGfOYDe1uVVtuxT3TQY8cOEpz7rPX57FXVHtp7OOXcnpEcylDIFEcX8fmL7wFShmML8wj7UtNrcmUDKDfjDebEEihJEeTZVeGaT0fzdeRPz-N2O8LFLvA38vs=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,141 | 1,313 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the Australian Federal Government announce a new package of emergency security funding for Jewish community sites or festivals, worth at least 25 million AUD, by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or a relevant cabinet minister announces a new, specific allocation of funding (separate from existing grants like the 'Securing Communities Program') totaling 25 million Australian Dollars or more specifically dedicated to the security of Jewish infrast... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 01bfcdc4-128b-4212-8f15-7e903272a436 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Grant unlocks funding to keep faith communities safe (published on 2025-12-12 by nsw.gov.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Fuel supply update: the Commonwealth National Fuel Security Plan is level 2; fuel supply continues, but some local... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the Australian Federal Government will announce a new emergency security funding package for Jewish community sites/festivals valued at >=25 million AUD by Feb 1, 2026, given context: date is Dec 14 2025 today.
We need to parse the context:... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHt4eJ3g-EUFP5UmBsyAJpNAnCNyFH6OwQF62N5CkU4iZ6eBnFQG7z4VUBuDY9vuhLW3ti6keHQ4Ip7y_naUKdNjfIeXp0xT-1eZ9-drkQV-BWyQ8vKph93HJ2SU_iyfUetIDzxlxXIPLWd8Nh5k_htRohHtxEhI9dMnvwsKbtRtz8O95YFgWeqYcZ3pGTFh6i0GZfYZsyA5BrTschTGA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 915 | 1,977 | null | -2.040221 | 0.7569 | -2.040221 |
Will the Parliament of New South Wales pass new legislation specifically restricting the sale or possession of semi-automatic firearms in response to the December 14, 2025, shooting before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the New South Wales Parliament passes (receives third reading approval in both houses and/or Royal Assent) any bill that increases restrictions on the licensing, sale, or types of semi-automatic firearms permitted in the state, between December 14, 2025, and March 15, 2026. The legisl... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0fb8557c-17f0-425d-a1c6-1740a71e3922 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "New South Wales Parliament restrict sale possession semi-automatic firearms bill 2025 2026; NSW legislation semi-automatic firearms possession sale amendment 2026; December 14 2025 shooting NSW semi-automatic firearms legislation... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for the given question: Will the Parliament of New South Wales pass new legislation specifically restricting the sale or possession of semi-automatic firearms in response to the December 14, 2025 shooting before March 15, 2026?
We need to consider ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH95enp2SqbyEHbFMu-0lQ2VR66uN6Im-CEc-jOtAolEFTZE7r3EzvK2Xy6s5k8zll6qaubb7R0mNqdHJcBdJ5ZsPACXcBtr618YWw3cVf5wvPmUd1OgqEP0vyWhLvEP4QcsclfXUGBFa2abWjWtY5JGM5bYvKJumNhUbbn-2Y1I50wm6B-w19PgZWFPQtz0iqSc40wAmbo21XJIICjcQQZBOsHycbesujFjrsM3c1cv8b-3nELx_8bjCk=,... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 426 | 2,295 | null | -2.040221 | 0.7569 | -2.040221 |
Will Christina Paxson officially resign or announce her departure from the position of President of Brown University by March 14, 2026? | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if Brown University's official communications (News from Brown/Office of the President) or major news outlets (AP, Reuters, NYT) report that Christina Paxson has resigned, been terminated, or announced a specific future date for her departure from the presidency between December 14, 2025, a... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-14T00:00:00 | 8606f46b-e09a-41da-84bf-13b4ae36d9a5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'The unthinkable has happened.' 2 killed, nine injured in mass shooting on Brown University campus (published on 2025-12-13 by rhodeislandcurrent.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Two people were killed and nine injured in a mass shooti... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast that Christina Paxson will officially resign or announce her departure from position of President of Brown University by March 14, 2026, given the info.
We have a date: today is 2025-12-14. So we have about 3 months (approx 90 days) until March 14,... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEay8NAivO_1aPrUeMxAaOjyGf_GiIWqFgf5BMuVWhFJwzqD9l3z85fgOydsU-QnMrKn9uJDgfDxzuP9EvneWx26OX_2DsgcizwLqxEd9Ph7OK2-5M6yDg1d_QmK_hUXC8jI9sAPAyNE6ks6L94h0ZU-S67jaupLEdTQGHbO6xVzEfYFQ72wksrundWCQm5Wbq-G6JcpnZ7Ehjkpw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,456 | 1,393 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Australian Government or ASIO raise the National Terrorism Threat Level above 'Probable' before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) or the Commonwealth Government officially updates the National Terrorism Threat Level to a tier higher than 'Probable' (e.g., 'Expected' or 'Certain') at any point between December 14, 2025, and March 1, 2026. This must be announ... | null | 2025-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 75dd5075-59e9-4f8a-90cd-98d028b4692f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: In 2025, federal police arrested a 17-year-old white Australian male on Ngunnawal ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the Australian Govt or ASIO will raise the National Terrorism Threat Level above 'Probable' (to Expected or Certain) before March 1, 2026, based on context and knowledge.
We have current date Dec 14 2025.
We need to predict if within about 2... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF8blm8ZVUnWmr_I7su-RGqHJt8DaSbLzPpFWQE54nQWaNPqs5o0HIjSO-xIE5TniuqZXpbEpPSK4sK5Wy-g4YuMgAx6fcwBwFP72ZLSmS-abOCBENkmQRKcf5LJm_BnBkEFGxXQff4TJK9XtdGVuf2kNMFha2WrPh3jhG6vkP1sOTZ--tqdgsiq7g=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 627 | 1,971 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the New South Wales government formally introduce a bill to the NSW Parliament to amend the Firearms Act 1996 before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 16, 2025, and March 14, 2026, the New South Wales (NSW) Government formally introduces (first reading) a bill in either the Legislative Assembly or the Legislative Council specifically intended to amend the Firearms Act 1996 or otherwise tighten firearm licensing requir... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 61ef1f78-97c1-4dcc-bfae-3c462210fc21 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: National cabinet unanimously agreed to strengthen Australia's gun laws after the Bondi terro... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that NSW government will formally introduce a bill (first reading) amending the Firearms Act 1996 (or tightening licensing) before March 15 2026, specifically in response to the Bondi shooting (which is referenced in news). The question: "Will the ... | null | null | null | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 933 | 2,362 | null | -1.714798 | 0.6724 | -1.714798 |
Will Naveed Akram be formally charged with murder in an Australian court before February 15, 2026, in connection with the December 2025 Bondi Beach shooting? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Naveed Akram (24) is formally charged by Australian authorities (police or prosecutors) with at least one count of murder related to the incident at Bondi Beach on December 14, 2025. This must be confirmed by official Australian court records, police media releases (NSW Police), or maj... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | bef10a3c-4331-4fa3-9532-e974c0bb10ea | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] All we know five days after the Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by smh.com.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: NSW Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon said the Bondi Beach attack was a terrorism incident. Fifteen people died; 15 re... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that Naveed Akram will be formally charged with murder in an Australian court before Feb 15, 2026.
We have today's date Dec 15, 2025. The event is scheduled Dec 14 2025 Bondi Beach shooting (the incident occurred). The question: whether by Feb 15 ... | null | null | null | null | 0.78 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,098 | 1,657 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will the Australian Federal Police or the New South Wales Police Force formally designate the December 14, 2025, Bondi Beach shooting as a 'terrorist act' or 'terrorism incident' by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM AEDT on March 1, 2026, a high-ranking official from the Australian Federal Police (AFP), the New South Wales (NSW) Police Department, or the Australian Commonwealth Government formally characterizes the attack occurring at Bondi Beach on December 14, 2025, as a 'terrorist ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | c288f2c8-da69-48ab-82c9-ab20445df7a1 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Australia police raid residence of Pakistan origin man suspected of Bondi Beach terror attack — Report (published on 2025-12-14 by wionews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Australian police raided the home of Naveed Akram, 24, of Pakis... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to generate a probability forecast for the question: Will the Australian Federal Police or the NSW Police Force formally designate the December 14, 2025 Bondi Beach shooting as a 'terrorist act' or 'terrorism incident' by March 1, 2026?
We have to examine relevant context: Several... | null | null | null | null | 0.95 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,167 | 2,117 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Australian Federal Government announce an increase in funding for the Securing Faith Communities grant program or a similar initiative specifically for protecting religious sites before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 15, 2025, and March 1, 2026, the Australian Federal Government (Cabinet, Prime Minister, or Attorney-General) publicly announces a new or expanded funding allocation specifically for the physical security of religious or faith-based community sites (such as synagogues... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | cfb9ee9b-3995-4c5d-b488-1ae5a704ae66 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] After the antisemitic violence at Bondi, Australia must find a new resolve - ABC Religion & Ethics (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Noon in Jerusalem, as Chanukah begins, diplomats at an IHRA conferen... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian Federal Government will announce an increase in funding for the Securing Faith Communities grant program (or similar initiative) specifically for protecting religious sites before March 1, 2026 (between Dec 15 2025 and March 1 2026). Should b... | null | null | null | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,481 | 2,489 | null | -1.966113 | 0.7396 | -1.966113 |
Will the Australian federal government introduce a new bill to Parliament to amend the Firearms Act 1996 or establish new national firearm restrictions before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 16, 2025, and March 15, 2026, the Australian federal government (Executive or a Ministry) formally introduces a bill to the House of Representatives or Senate that aims to tighten gun control, expand the definition of prohibited firearms, or modify licensing requirem... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | de292f2a-2182-4aee-bee7-07614fadbfad | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: National cabinet met after the Bondi terror attack and leaders unanimously agreed to strengt... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that the Australian federal government will introduce a new bill to amend the Firearms Act 1996 or establish new national firearm restrictions before March 15, 2026, that is, between Dec 16, 2025 and Mar 15, 2026 inclusive. The question is about wh... | null | null | null | null | 0.34 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,979 | 3,852 | null | -1.07881 | 0.4356 | -1.07881 |
Will the New South Wales Government introduce a bill to the NSW Parliament to amend the Firearms Act 1996 before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a member of the NSW Government (Premier, Minister, or designated representative) formally moves or introduces a bill in either the Legislative Assembly or the Legislative Council of New South Wales that proposes amendments to the Firearms Act 1996. This must be verifiable via the officia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | dec901ea-55a0-405b-9043-e7515540722e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: National cabinet unanimously agreed to strengthen Australia's gun laws after the Bondi terro... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We are to produce a well-calibrated probability that the NSW Government will introduce a bill amending the Firearms Act 1996 before March 15, 2026 (approximately 3 months from today's date Dec 15 2025). So the horizon is ~ 90 days.
We have context: two news articles (both December 14 2025... | null | null | null | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 741 | 3,260 | null | -1.714798 | 0.6724 | -1.714798 |
Will the Australian Federal Government announce a new nationwide increase in firearms restrictions or a national firearms buyback program by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 15, 2025, and March 15, 2026, the Australian Prime Minister, Attorney-General, or Minister for Home Affairs officially announces a new nationwide tightening of firearm ownership laws, the classification of additional firearms as prohibited, or the establishment of a n... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | f0a22249-2169-4528-9119-94cffc3396c3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Bondi beach terror attack: PM and premier vow to change gun laws after 'horrifying' weapons used to kill 15 (published on 2025-12-14 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: After a Bondi beach shooting in Sydney that killed at ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that Australian Federal Government will announce a new nationwide increase in firearms restrictions or national firearms buyback program by March 15, 2026. Deadline is about 3 months after now (Dec 15, 2025). The question: "Will the Australian Federal Governm... | null | null | null | null | 0.63 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,474 | 5,879 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 | -0.462035 |
Will the Australian Federal Government or the Government of New South Wales formally establish a Royal Commission or a Special Commission of Inquiry specifically to investigate the Bondi Beach shooting by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an official press release or statement from the Australian Prime Minister's office, the Premier of New South Wales, or the Governor of New South Wales confirms the establishment of either a 'Royal Commission' or a 'Special Commission of Inquiry' (or an equivalent statutory judicial inqui... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-08T00:00:00 | ffaea3ab-a329-42ac-a1e6-984bc79a1c6a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'Unsafe' and 'unfairly scrutinised': How the Bondi terror attack changed Australia (published on 2025-12-14 by sbs.com.au) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A month after the Bondi Beach terror attack that killed 15 people during a Jewish Ha... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to forecast: Will the Australian Federal Government or the Government of NSW formally establish a Royal Commission or Special Commission of Inquiry specifically to investigate the Bondi Beach shooting by March 1, 2026? Provide probability.
We need to examine context: news articles... | null | null | null | null | 0.21 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,560 | 3,526 | null | -1.560648 | 0.6241 | -1.560648 |
Will the Australian Federal Government introduce a bill to the House of Representatives that proposes any new nationwide restrictions on the sale or possession of semi-automatic firearms on or before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a new bill (not an amendment to an existing minor regulation) aimed at restricting the sale or possession of semi-automatic firearms is formally introduced into the Australian House of Representatives by the Federal Government between December 16, 2025, and March 15, 2026. This must be ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 423fe78b-d409-4ecd-aa75-6adf82e8853d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: National cabinet unanimously agreed to strengthen Australia's gun laws after the Bondi terro... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability forecast for the event: "Will the Australian Federal Government introduce a bill to the House of Representatives that proposes any new nationwide restrictions on the sale or possession of semi-automatic firearms on or before March 15, 2026?" ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEm-QnDsLyJo2RI8yGiswB48X-IzvMxg-RFbYenGTgNwRoiJCZcz-dasfKEyzdhnoV0KCfbAcvRYr6tbzBf2YhIPj_REuqk7TJF7g8Dl6XjY3ld4QwNELeo5593R0ZsCOmHdBLBzHddq_9hS9IMCDIp5phamNJJLlIVVFwb23m-UIu4t4o1QqQIVAbtGLKK-Vl8XNBA-H9n8vRUUor59sAF, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.3 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,483 | 3,470 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 | -1.203973 |
Will the Australian federal government or the New South Wales state government officially announce a mandatory audit of all existing private firearm licenses by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if an official representative (Premier, Prime Minister, or Police Commissioner) of either the Australian Federal Government or the New South Wales Government publicly announces a comprehensive, mandatory audit or review of all active registered firearm licenses in their respective jurisdic... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 4650e559-7e1c-44c0-87e6-c6496ce05f8d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Bondi beach terror attack: PM and premier vow to change gun laws after 'horrifying' weapons used to kill 15 (published on 2025-12-14 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Anthony Albanese vowed tougher Australian gun laws aft... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that between Dec 15 2025 (the "today" date) and Feb 1 2026 (the close date, roughly 1.5 months later), either Australian federal government or NSW state government will officially announce a mandatory audit of all existing private firearm licenses, as a system... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGM173FruEyi0cnhvD80CokyR7TGpiV-H_DB6tZCWzorAJCES0fg_HPkGUXYVLUoYLawTAhsBgMhTeHO3M8INYFdPzfKqjjSoAD6VMNELoAMJ74a7IpyyJp4Rsx6f2FpF7XcLVCxUNujeSgsUIJ5E63HNp-65spTeHriuKHa3AREIg_-RySG8vTPNj7p8YWGzcWevqXm2_IT34ysZnr5XkrPTqslCl0iPA4eDA8Hp2rwM40KMUuPg8ZcNPag... | true | 2 | null | 0.38 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,072 | 1,910 | null | -0.967584 | 0.3844 | -0.967584 |
Will Anthony Albanese remain the Prime Minister of Australia through February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Anthony Albanese continuously holds the office of Prime Minister of Australia from December 15, 2025, until EOD February 1, 2026. 'No' is recorded if he resigns, is removed via a leadership spill, or otherwise vacates the office during this period. Changes in other cabinet positions (e... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 3748f1c5-672a-4846-9bdd-015d955f5d7d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Three things show Albanese's score on trust and integrity (published on 2025-12-03 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Albanese won a \"trust\" election and touts 2025 results as proof voters trust Labor, with a slightly higher ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability that Anthony Albanese will remain Prime Minister continuously through Feb 1, 2026. The today date = Dec 15, 2025. The close date = Feb 1, 2026, about 1.5 months (48 days) away.
We have context: News articles summarizing political situation. We should reaso... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG33ERMkKPTwxmqXUIIW4zqSARh8z-GJIw8OjMBSBMC2LP0MqT3ZwfOZsPdb8W5etEAjURYanDLw0CzB-QD10AW2oHhZAguvEXjHOXzpsMKgjJo3qNDv6pEG3jdTf8mPsyqceWyVc4sd-whtPSIdTukIaILM_c1XfO9o0EivdxrA-BRq-qCkQy-BiqKXOOHRvuF25q5fZuFoUUjRXsbWLGMRyX5PaDrgmij1g==, https://vertexaisea... | true | 2 | null | 0.95 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,037 | 2,192 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Australian National Threat Assessment Centre (ANTAC) raise the National Terrorism Threat Level to 'High' or 'Certain' before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the Australian National Threat Advisory System, managed by the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), officially increases the threat level from 'Possible' to either 'High' or 'Certain' at any point between December 15, 2025, and March 1, 2026. The resolution will be base... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 528b60dd-fac2-44b9-9c34-3238e637b152 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Terrorism Threat from White Male Teens Is on the Rise in Australia (published on 2025-11-20 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Federal police arrested a 17-year-old white Australian male on Ngunnawal land in C... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to generate a calibrated probability that the Australian National Threat Assessment Centre (ANTAC) will raise the national terrorism threat level from 'Possible' to 'High' or 'Certain' before March 1, 2026. The current threat level is 'Probable' (previously 'Possible' before Aug 20... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGwinNtb6gtfHhT9kF9pCM6GvMcCde-NHBr5_ld2cVY45kQ9nXXX1P3ArxvRySVj3pAdvM06JcszKiG_PxapdVXBfnWxYXDsz1FuZP21J-8V3t-fPGtHrse7wIIGZuLHVMCcmnEc-0399rV7r67eqchyoWhOiPuBd87v4J36RnSvvvOfgmErDn5fvFKGSDiP83fK-_7H0uyTDewoyA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,715 | 4,517 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will at least one of the named accused individuals in the December 1, 2024, Jalaun gang rape case be officially reported as arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Police before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Uttar Pradesh Police, a district official, or a major Indian news outlet (e.g., ANI, NDTV, Times of India, or NBT) confirms that at least one individual named in the FIR (First Information Report) registered on December 1, 2024, at Rendhar police station, Jalaun, for gang rape of t... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 765d6d60-bc83-4d64-a17e-cbdefe681443 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "\"Jalaun\" gang rape case December 1 2024 named accused arrested; \"Jalaun\" gang rape case Uttar Pradesh Police arrested accused official statement; \"Jalaun\" gang rape case accused names report arrested on; \"December 1, 2024\... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability estimate that at least one of the named accused individuals in a specific case (December 1, 2024 Jalaun gang rape case) will be officially reported as arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Police before Jan 15, 2026.
We must consider context: but the provided conte... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFZW8W4fHgZJP8Bnv__RXxWUQmS7GOORIJNlwSeXWIMdSwqxcqIaU8NjkwyVa9gvUB7I_spikgO_cU8XeyfZpJx5OFBnH5l4ITPqv7_G8UcInipJJZ0BRLbQseMWhIKzDEFkOtQTKe6f6mtcixd-ByHvBq81u6zHEXFEp824x_rIvrDJk79N713Q34kdyBbjP-sWmWyCvQUDdDsnxD6jQjf7XbXNcwIqU-f7HU__gTs_XcPZ25g2zI=, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 430 | 2,464 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will Chuck Schumer remain the Democratic Leader in the United States Senate through February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Chuck Schumer remains the leader of the Democratic caucus in the U.S. Senate (regardless of whether they are in the majority or minority) as of the end of the day on February 1, 2026. If he resigns, is removed by a caucus vote, or otherwise vacates the leadership position before this ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 7ba3021a-bc63-445b-bdb1-fde18993446c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Is this the end of Chuck Schumer? (published on 2025-11-17 by thehill.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Democrats increasingly call for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to resign, with criticism coming from both moderates a... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast (a probability) that Chuck Schumer will remain Democratic Leader in Senate through Feb 1, 2026. We must consider context (news articles) about his leadership, pressures, his term, etc. Use background knowledge: Schumer is senior senator from NY,... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEEwoHUidMSCiRYn7AY7qspgb8XcVEQqioIbOAJbmxfwX_JTQAbPgZTTPDulNB-f5dZosyNAnni6dkkDJMUPt2NqM3EFeqPX3ZG5W6iS6UMi4lZn4nm4W2SGV6jDrfR_Gk=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFIxOMIHnuraMwbTkNh5NbS214akbzDldGs-nkkhaEfw-OHreBZ... | true | 2 | null | 0.92 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,136 | 2,731 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will a formal Royal Commission or a joint federal-state Coronial Inquest be officially established to investigate the Bondi Beach Hanukkah attack by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Governor-General of Australia or the Premier of New South Wales formally issues letters patent for a Royal Commission, or if a Special Coronial Inquest is officially ordered by the NSW State Coroner specifically to investigate the shooting deaths at Bondi Beach on December 14, 2025. ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | 57d3e91d-82cd-4ca4-955f-f2869dbf7f9b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Australia terror attack: 16 dead, including gunman, after father-son duo opens fire on Jewish community (published on 2025-12-14 by foxnews.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Police in Sydney say a 50-year-old father and his 24-year-old ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that a formal Royal Commission or joint federal-state coronial inquest will be officially established by March 1, 2026 to investigate the Bondi Beach Hanukkah attack (which happened Dec 14, 2025). The facts:
- Attack killed 15+ victims, 2 shooters (father de... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFmsE9Qr6XdYfBUX7JT2XdhQJ9WSC0AoalCf1POShxjPOEAXPRWIM0K1QIntqarGtMROzWSnwOaYi1A_Ol7tZ3q9ILEmtqOoE5yHGODKgtGVgzA-TBNwJnrp3lcgOw=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFEDgM_lFCs_IEK7F2cwyLcFmQXqmnXh6DOx3dWRVgSml9r8_hNo3s5... | true | 2 | null | 0.32 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,493 | 5,803 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | -1.139434 |
Will the Parliament of New South Wales introduce or amend legislation specifically to increase criminal penalties for hate-motivated offenses before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 16, 2025, and March 15, 2026, a member of the New South Wales Parliament introduces a new bill or an amendment to existing law (such as the Crimes Act 1900) that explicitly seeks to increase the maximum penalties or create new aggravated offenses for crimes motivated... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-22T00:00:00 | b1bac0e5-a47c-4ca3-9404-04168ca25335 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] The Tricky New Laws Designed to Respond to Rising Neo-Nazism in New South Wales (published on 2025-11-28 by sydneycriminallawyers.com.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The NSW government introduced the Crimes and Summary Offences Amendme... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Provide a calibrated probability forecast for whether NSW Parliament will introduce or amend legislation specifically to increase criminal penalties for hate-motivated offenses before March 15, 2026.
We have to treat the context as factual: we have news about NSW government acti... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFVDEftHTd8XCWsRl7hjpXNaIMfGDvJkySz9VEp5GQ9fyd4kLrS1t15LyW69LI-AxIDbnY0DRHjzOsEbjWnVMEW5iYjZhlKzKZmx7irXRLhSxSnolcbdBA2jYVTvumNKCfrQZrx3jy6PdB9LaI0XK4J9dVMsQFMgcZ0ArsDjyEPP0pC4P7PATFKQXEDkYKwukZd43vK4gdo6Asdw4--j-EXdk-sfFSNQJBx0zwjEVSDy6CbNxKtplePGkc=,... | true | 2 | null | 0.32 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,509 | 2,122 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | -1.139434 |
Will the New South Wales Parliament pass a bill to amend the Firearms Act 1996 in response to the Bondi Beach shooting before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the New South Wales Parliament passes (reaches third reading and final approval in both houses) a bill that amends the Firearms Act 1996 or introduces new restrictive handgun/shotgun licensing requirements between December 15, 2025, and March 15, 2026. The legislation must be explicitl... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 79f898d4-d178-4bfe-a66c-d543afcc7d75 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Bondi beach terror attack: PM and premier vow to change gun laws after 'horrifying' weapons used to kill 15 (published on 2025-12-14 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Australian PM Anthony Albanese vowed tougher gun contr... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that the NSW Parliament will pass a bill amending Firearms Act 1996 (or new restrictive handgun/shotgun licensing), explicitly linked to Bondi Beach shooting, between Dec 15, 2025 and March 15, 2026.
We have context: Bondi Beach shooting occurred just b... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHzJ-GmDt-pYyDBCj4pyFv0Kiqs3Jq1PlmGH5qN0rgLIQB-9lk3_W_HVPO5phSGy96ruM1TjXOGs6CC71XS2ipFlchrTxo-mSc7bxjZ11iVTtQsT4dReSkRHSHeWV1fdPdUtNK_OZ4sBy27DkO2PCtBx2DX_c-wlF-Ma7rI8fH9rttrnu2Hisf0F51OlDoO20bAUkG2sUFamDQyuDA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,307 | 5,450 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | -1.514128 |
Will the New South Wales Parliament pass legislation that introduces a periodic renewal requirement for all firearm licenses by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, by 11:59 PM AEDT on March 15, 2026, the Parliament of New South Wales (NSW) passes a bill that is subsequently signed into law (receives Royal Assent) which mandates that firearm licenses must be renewed on a periodic basis (e.g., every 5 or 10 years), effectively ending the 'perpetuit... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | e26ac31a-babc-4bab-a149-35c03bec8ec9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "New South Wales Parliament periodic renewal requirement firearm licences bill; NSW firearm licences renewal requirement March 2026; New South Wales firearm licensing reform renewal system government bill debate; NSW Parliament fi... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to give a probability that the NSW Parliament will pass legislation requiring periodic renewal of firearm licenses by March 15, 2026.
We have context: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but none provided. In the prompt, after "NEWS:" it's blank, meaning no con... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFo4CmxZ0cNmrmeURV-fCMkqe3N4bGOh9_Cw8IpAsIDKKNgjvbTLHSKisTKXm-EIHkiMRav5-qoQ1E474BNUdJWagee1EODw7oNJTwPkr6JFKXWApUputd0kwx2coWG9ggKfGDCLrOTsyivXrsOWyhPNayZ5BA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGhK-eMlYfHliRsRZ_WAl5x... | true | 2 | null | 0.15 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 408 | 1,716 | null | -1.89712 | 0.7225 | -1.89712 |
Will the Australian Federal Government or the New South Wales Parliament pass a bill specifically increasing criminal penalties for hate-motivated mass casualty offenses by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a piece of legislation is passed by both houses of the Australian Federal Parliament or the New South Wales Parliament and receives Royal Assent before March 15, 2026, which explicitly increases sentencing minimums or adds aggravating factors for crimes motivated by religious or ethnic ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 75f43520-e99b-4179-86da-904cc465efe5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] All we know five days after the Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by smh.com.au) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Four months after the Bondi terror attack, authorities released details on deaths (16 including the gunmen) and inj... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecasting probability that "the Australian Federal Government or the New South Wales Parliament pass a bill specifically increasing criminal penalties for hate-motivated mass casualty offenses by March 15, 2026". We have date now: 2025-12-15. So there are approx 3 months left u... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEQFKGYglKzM4MDq-XgnTz1FP27F_9WRCPXQ3W4bvPfXjGPh-vbh4MFwrZt7zvIq82DrZzhlQwgMHbnIVnBgdfECZqY8eubc9wAQ_PKdy-MZYbc9PmZZS2_AxSqSPpBD_QQ5NdZUHRpVYdCnw8uPoXWeHp5l6GOKgZLXqq2QFxpf5FG4LADcbcZWpCtPxJAEPoACIN-74dLNGY6XIA0VL8ilWzxsz9tcM2opBpGjCzhFHZx-0rmpXp6DgFfP... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,043 | 4,920 | null | -2.407946 | 0.8281 | -2.407946 |
Will the Australian Federal Government announce the introduction of new national firearm or counter-terrorism legislation in response to the Bondi Beach shooting before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 15, 2025, and February 14, 2026, the Australian Prime Minister, Attorney-General, or Minister for Home Affairs publicly announces a proposal or the introduction of new federal legislation specifically aimed at tightening gun laws or counter-terrorism measures cited as a... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 9d49147e-cc4b-40c1-ae35-6ac0e28e8ad3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Australia's national cabinet met urgently after the Bondi terror attack and unanimously agre... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the Australian Federal Government will announce introduction of new national firearm or counter-terrorism legislation in response to the Bondi Beach shooting before February 15, 2026.
We must base this on context information and background ... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.66 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,075 | 4,908 | null | -1.07881 | 0.4356 | -1.07881 |
Will the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) announce the completion of its village-level party committee formations in the Annamayya district by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) leadership or Minister B.C. Janardhan Reddy issues a public statement or press release confirming that the 'village-level party committees' for the Annamayya district (or specific constituencies therein like Rajampeta) have been fully constituted/appointed ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 1611da67-7c5a-4d65-83c0-a147cad0147d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "TDP village-level party committee formations Annamayya district March 2026; Telugu Desam Party village committees formation progress Annamayya; TDP organizational expansion district committee formation schedule 2025 2026; Annamay... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that TDP will announce completion of its village-level party committee formations in Annamayya district by March 1, 2026. We have limited context: only "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but the context is empty. The system: we have no specifi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFOkNVk_1yWFP6gR1_IHJCAa22mdCLHoEat3DqxNaV82rTAFrs4L129MT-GqBuzcPDKu3o32gY54_8Pe0zorwWa95BOU-Ln2fdCUdd8MndysLzpdqsP7KaVHasETig9OIaO-CzP9VD7YFmoEDPoAJ_hZ4EFksuyhA8KdsrLkNDyA0IozEESDRkZig0kUhbjgquAq7URDEgWDobSoU00EuStZLRDOh7L4r3jlkWvW_XsN2yKM7kJACjBQ-6aS... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 431 | 1,112 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the Australian federal government introduce new legislation to the Parliament of Australia specifically aimed at tightening firearms restrictions before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian federal government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or a relevant minister, formally introduces a bill to the House of Representatives or the Senate by March 15, 2026, that proposes further restrictions on the sale, ownership, or classification of firearms. This a... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 0ed2240c-bb4a-4f6c-a859-96e8169e9baa | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National cabinet agrees to toughen gun laws in wake of Bondi terror attack (published on 2025-12-14 by abc.net.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: National cabinet unanimously agreed to strengthen Australia's gun laws after the Bondi terro... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the Australian federal government will introduce new legislation to tighten firearms restrictions before March 15, 2026, given a set of context news and baseline knowledge.
We need to consider relevant factors: historical patterns, politica... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEryNs21kVj9c8XO-jJzsIDaOy2MjWgHLu3SRVijzFRjTX8VXAQoWN6DLUMcw4f9t2rLNbqy0Nx56Bkr7CYgytJVQbboF3onb9Kth0jIlbII1X4W9c2TGXu3Kx1YXc8onF9SDBfTuKLPyurjjYxDNNVeAqHqW-eNWW_jYLi8C0vnOwLWo10Lc2sxbjrxGIsznS0srZ4wjcHD_JchClgiEwJ, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.63 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,943 | 3,337 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 | -0.462035 |
Will the Australian National Terrorism Threat Level be raised to 'PROBABLE' or higher before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Government (via the National Security website or the Department of Home Affairs) officially raises the National Terrorism Threat Level from its standing at the time of the event to 'Probable', 'Very Likely', or 'Certain' on or before March 15, 2026. If the level remains ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | cdfc2aa0-fc0e-4381-9a19-cc5089292e10 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] ASIO on alert for further threats after Bondi shooting, leaves terror level at probable (published on 2025-12-14 by smh.com.au) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: ASIO is investigating whether there is any further threat to Jewish Australians... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Australian National Terrorism Threat Level will be raised to 'Probable' or higher before March 15, 2026. As of now, on Dec 14 2025, the threat level is at "Probable". That's already at the level under question. The question asks: "Will the Australian Na... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFD9U8vIxT6q89nsvM-qWPO2B3OqzWTYNVZ8DWwVvcBU16_5-VP85wdMSjBD8ZlWHNJhpjbZIoZmsSbwFVG7mH6K2eaJUmoUENC8yHK3H92cNKy5h6-agPIt3GXBAWml_nwpdFbrg1ccZFOwTcc4RPTHz55pD61B69trK5Cei4zPqspSncaMehCKA==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,155 | 2,380 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the United States State Department issue a 'Level 3' (Reconsider Travel) or 'Level 4' (Do Not Travel) travel advisory for Australia specifically citing the December 2025 shooting by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of State officially raises the Travel Advisory level for Australia to Level 3 or Level 4 between December 15, 2025, and January 15, 2026, and the official justification or accompanying press release explicitly references the Sydney Hanukkah celebration shooting or ... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 1f5913bb-47b5-4ee4-936f-a98ee6afc5a3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Gunmen kill 11 at Australia's Bondi Beach Jewish holiday event (published on 2025-12-14 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Gunmen opened fire at a Jewish Hanukkah celebration on Sydney's Bondi Beach on Sunday, killing at least... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated probability forecast for whether the US Department of State will issue a Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) or Level 4 (Do Not Travel) advisory for Australia specifically citing the December 2025 shooting by Jan 15, 2026.
We have context: The question date is... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQELoSERznO0hXYCvfa1ZZ7c9Q6tSQGUjCnaOI23dk8l6B89U7IKOgaE9zLeehLGLMKz09y5quoezV8pjxxrlv2H05sR_d0hrQ2ahkagCTlF8tdYzSaquf0DIQ0-pBeUPmUfRChEYNkRdZR_-CuAgfFf9ag=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGyqLXhPMyH7Jdv0DH0QZuRPhaN... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,174 | 2,211 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the Australian federal government or the New South Wales state government officially announce a mandatory audit of all existing private firearm licenses by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if an official representative (Premier, Prime Minister, or Police Commissioner) of either the Australian Federal Government or the New South Wales Government publicly announces a comprehensive, mandatory audit or review of all active registered firearm licenses in their respective jurisdic... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | a761fcc0-a180-437e-a5e2-0694c0cfbf61 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Australia federal government mandatory audit of private firearm licenses announcement; NSW state government mandatory audit existing private firearm licences announcement February 2026; mandatory audit firearm licences Australia ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast of whether Australian federal government or NSW state government will officially announce a mandatory audit of all existing private firearm licenses by Feb 1, 2026 (approx 1.5 months from today 15 Dec 2025). The question references a "Bondi shootin... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 390 | 1,962 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will the Australian Federal Government announce the introduction of new national firearm or counter-terrorism legislation in response to the Bondi Beach shooting before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 15, 2025, and February 14, 2026, the Australian Prime Minister, Attorney-General, or Minister for Home Affairs publicly announces a proposal or the introduction of new federal legislation specifically aimed at tightening gun laws or counter-terrorism measures cited as a... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | 58fb967b-e5c4-4b78-8578-747f2d2de3ac | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps listed as a state sponsor of terrorism (published on 2025-11-27 by foreignminister.gov.au) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Australian Government has listed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate (forecast) that the Australian Federal Government will announce introduction of new national firearm or counter-terrorism legislation in response to the Bondi Beach shooting before Feb 15, 2026. Current date is Dec 15, 2025. So we have a 2-month wi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpVqSCMIsTnBfFaUjAEBABIPz6hGDBoSeNiVH0XsfkgkrNE5Lox2MjRYscLQZMgHZu3xXx6dPOG3jpIEfjrpaX5Egw925tHMD6dvHa75c7-0UoECxk-RIog2nSPamTRtw1bhUgKoD_52m480Utc9XBCFWy4qC8r86fBVwV53CtPofTT_nRjdQn5oiC_rrt9TvAMYyZXDYVm5HMp7Si3y7qFm_DT5gTWRkvuOHqlyFdfwgf5pcJkeo0iFjTd... | true | 2 | null | 0.55 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,024 | 5,994 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 | -0.597837 |
Will Ahmed al-Ahmed be officially awarded or named a recipient of any Australian Bravery Decoration by the Governor-General of Australia before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Governor-General of Australia officially announces Ahmed al-Ahmed as a recipient of an award within the Australian Bravery Decorations system (such as the Cross of Valour, Star of Courage, Bravery Medal, or Commendation for Brave Conduct) for his actions at Bondi Beach on December 14... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | de94ab72-efce-475e-892e-1f0011f5f0d2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Fruit shop owner hailed as hero after disarming Bondi Beach gunman (published on 2025-12-14 by euronews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ahmed al-Ahmed, a 43-year-old fruit shop owner, tackled and disarmed one of the Bondi Beach shoote... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that Ahmed al-Ahmed will be officially awarded or named a recipient of an Australian Bravery Decoration by the Governor-General of Australia before March 15, 2026.
We have context: The event (Bondi Beach shooting, Dec 14 2025) occurred; Ahmed al... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF5IGTf1NMbfigTr3Uq-gab5FQy5T_wU3XY-kD5vw-A5itNvrXdR7Wbhe-2FcUs1km3jOa32jncgaIkzZC3R82DDaotCsE9F91hmYgR7rQiyGIbvbrnlnKo45WTeAoWR_0Av_Y8WDFRvAYQ4zS29MWhJ59z0l5-4h23f6rA, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHMxUzRSHUwJjMx... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,919 | 4,146 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Australian Federal Government introduce a bill to the Parliament of Australia proposing more restrictive gun control measures on or before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a government-sponsored bill (Executive/Cabinet) is formally introduced into either the House of Representatives or the Senate of Australia between December 16, 2025, and March 15, 2026, which explicitly seeks to tighten regulations on firearms ownership, storage, or sales in response t... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 9d1d8d6b-6011-4da9-b50b-6a3257dd37e7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Planned firearms law changes will impact regulator and regulatory system (published on 2025-11-14 by thelawyermag.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Nicole McKee, Associate Justice Minister, says Cabinet has decided to repeal and replace... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast probability that the Australian Federal Government will introduce a bill proposing more restrictive gun control measures on or before March 15, 2026. The question: "Will the Australian Federal Government introduce a bill to the Parliament of Austral... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHgJ23Ri0dLms0BqkkLN1eoIgMF7Rlk1MoUMm6wJoQhhuZxk1rksoKj3sZlmNKDfBxMBDuOf08xAfyj5Q-08ofd_hYZ9DSK4ojHbLuv2oac-CFEU3fjdn-AwkpXIK_P-fEj0PkLLOxIQeC-tW__SMmmDLJYPSYq7SYYEKU=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF9mc4WoCdQWFWF... | true | 2 | null | 0.42 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,145 | 4,880 | null | -0.867501 | 0.3364 | -0.867501 |
Will the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) issue a formal directive to halt all construction activities of 'Linear Public Projects' in Gurugram by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 16, 2025, and January 31, 2026, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) publishes an official directive or order that suspends construction on linear public projects (such as highways, roads, flyovers, power transmission, or pipelines) specifically within Gurug... | null | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 06c783a5-b893-4b1b-b458-387e22d8a641 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] GRAP IV curbs in Delhi-NCR: What's restricted and what's not as AQI drops sharply amid concerns over air pollution (published on 2025-12-13 by livemint.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: CAQM's Sub-Committee on GRAP announced Stage IV (S... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability forecast whether CAQ M will issue a formal directive to halt all construction activities of 'Linear Public Projects' in Gurugram by January 31, 2026, given the context.
First, understand the question: The Commission for Air Quality Management (C... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEjZQhhN5rEPoUVTGplLmMqPgMS1Uf5p4hv-rDT5QKJAw0Opoxs_CqbHUoBoLUy0TZTX4uyi7FLIxYEfBpp7iE2a4V8YB4fGEZuCrIphjO5ZXeT0ve-W-rHV-nY57SeAD6gzxvpMYPFMwQ7d18RJu-e06V7UHHDbuMGvIvh61n_9GXFlRrQU9GoBo6nk3Vuvr_-mCPqZ6BTQUv4MwXBVRxroQQ7qtbCR3uSd68fxF5_5ljNl50SElYLzpkMJ... | true | 2 | null | 0.3 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,403 | 4,219 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | -0.356675 |
Will President Donald Trump sign any new Executive Order related to border security or immigration between December 17, 2025, and December 31, 2025? | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between 9:00 PM ET on December 17, 2025, and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, the Federal Register or official White House archives record the signing of at least one new Executive Order concerning border enforcement, visa restrictions, or immigration policy. If no such order is sig... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 5bd62550-d642-406d-9b16-a2edb745941f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Tracking Trump and Latin America: Migration—Cuba, Haiti, Venezuela Applications Paused (published on 2025-12-04 by as-coa.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: On day one of his second term, President Donald Trump intensified immigration en... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a forecast probability that Trump will sign any new executive order related to border security or immigration between Dec 17 and Dec 31, 2025. Today is Dec 16, 2025 (the day before the window starts). The context provides news items up through Dec 15 or Dec 4 etc. Need t... | null | null | null | null | 0.35 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,096 | 2,928 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | -0.430783 |
Will the Additional Sub Court in Thiruvananthapuram issue a temporary injunction restraining V.D. Satheesan from repeating the 'gold thief' remarks against Kadakampally Surendran by December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2025, the Thiruvananthapuram Additional Sub Court issues a formal legal order or temporary injunction that prohibits Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheesan from repeating specific allegations related to gold theft or misappropriation against CPI (M) leader Kadakampally Sur... | null | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | dffe3450-7c7d-4141-ad68-8acca792564c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] V D Satheesan files appeal in defamation case filed by ex-devaswom minister (published on 2025-12-01 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Opposition leader V D Satheesan filed an appeal in a defamation case broug... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to provide a probability that by Dec 31, 2025, the Additional Sub Court in Thiruvananthapuram will issue a temporary injunction restraining V.D. Satheesan from repeating the 'gold thief' remarks against Kadakampally Surendran. Need to consider context: current news articles up to D... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGDJS_jW5Hr5prVdirdVjzaXcFZCIcjSiEa8TLTWWefAMeWJ7-4HRmrCpqd6YW5DOM5UFYyo_AKRUTXGnqB1ilFmRa1Ts9wSWjl0lEg6zWHd4y812g0wvFul8F_kdoj-1Hli4n57UeviC0ledCiwn6Fy_NaTW6AumZLYGgSD1mLey6O2MhWoEvjVQU_r0XYCmXXYrDoxuSCVUVN2om4xDaCSZ_x3B_48D11klWi8UwSz1_9kkJMucR9, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,545 | 1,990 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
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