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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the Karnataka Department of Prisons and Correctional Services officially launch an AI-based surveillance pilot program at the Mangaluru District Prison before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official announcement or news report from a major outlet (e.g., Deccan Herald, New Indian Express) confirms that AI-based surveillance trials or full implementation have begun specifically at the Mangaluru District Prison facility on or before March 1, 2026. This follows the pilot t... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | d3996398-166b-4c56-8f66-2a4d08f650f9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Karnataka plans biometric inmate tracking and cashless canteens in prisons (published on 2025-12-17 by moneycontrol.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Karnataka's Directorate of Prisons and Correctional Services has floated a tender for ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for the question:
Will the Karnataka Department of Prisons and Correctional Services (DP&CS) officially launch an AI-based surveillance pilot program at the Mangaluru District Prison before March 1, 2026?
We have to use given context, knowledge u... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH45buizF8iPcu57DYIciwXdcywVHgJr5OlV6dhWB-_9O49-Q0sP4CzX3gllNuYcEfoAqwVy8_l1L8ZMW8gZNMqlsVfyWyZtDHkIu-BKQTkFd7I0-dhQ3sWUVwrN8D7qRbFhW0GDBstu-j99Eq0_ge8XhwCSXUZeA9O-7v0U9S8zVA8UpynmSVx6O-6Q1iqYxAApiB0czoNedakQunS1o6kRio1u4_ayt-dYQhGJnprFoDHTGkLPRkcVUQsT... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 678 | 1,756 | null | -2.040221 | 0.7569 | -2.040221 |
Will the U.S. Senate confirm at least five new ambassadors to sub-Saharan African nations between December 23, 2025, and March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the official U.S. Senate 'Actions' tracker or the Congressional Record shows that at least five individuals have been confirmed for the position of Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to countries located in sub-Saharan Africa during the specified period. Sub-Saharan Africa is... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 0b1cffe1-93b1-4a32-aa06-0af9e0a93388 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump recalling 27 ambassadors from Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Central America (published on 2025-12-22 by nypost.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: The Trump administration is recalling 29 ambassadors (more than two dozen) from po... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Provide a calibrated probability for the event: "Will the U.S. Senate confirm at least five new ambassadors to sub-Saharan African nations between Dec 23, 2025 and March 31, 2026?"
We have to treat context as facts; we have limited context from news articles and background knowl... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG-7Zh70KIAOb6kHReAhpObUWcQyxb1Psp91WiyxO0c5KtV-wI3R5NfKTxnnHZkQ7-ZMfWekZKwXcB0b6ibXdlcLJBpq-_KyMyj4-GZ9Ku6WCfJob3Odd0reEmT5ryVRvC-5Snfnm5TM7tTeCcFkzym3_QYkF2jjVVCkrVkkXFItamkPwW3F2BIDC7GWXJN4JzAmNa4AQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | true | 2 | null | 0.45 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,425 | 5,211 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 | -0.597837 |
Will the Tamil Nadu state government or the Coimbatore Range Police announce the establishment of a new specialized anti-narcotics task force specifically for the Western Zone before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official government order (G.O.) or an announcement from the Tamil Nadu Director General of Police (DGP) or the Tamil Nadu Home Department establishing a new, distinct task force (beyond existing units like the NIB-CID) dedicated to narcotics enforcement in the Western Zone... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 385db21a-7069-454f-9300-3dc132a87f48 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'From CWG 2030 to Olympic ambition, India's new era of global prominence' | Hindustan Times (published on 2025-11-27 by hindustantimes.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Commonwealth Sport has named India host of the centenary 2030 Commo... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a calibrated probability for "Will the Tamil Nadu state government or the Coimbatore Range Police announce the establishment of a new specialized anti-narcotics task force specifically for the Western Zone before March 15, 2026?" So we need to evaluate the likelihood tha... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQExQupg7ZHmqOpms9SKokcBjZgLUXyXO41TLvgfjoG0SeNZb8Fs8uZmuIZd3pfkfdhbcAKtlwt6MQUCDcN3I0FSxnaUEqtMyN0HjrfL9vDz-NGp30_-Lne_vEPTAKNALA5f4rfaFC79NGjpLrLIPhC51MIXuguB8uo3qI3VmNQPjNkIUVHIk7zK2Z-vmc2CqM5grh7ec6chn3y9dv8UtZneWTSjiaYeN3ag8D9PmGiIefCGUdf95C7CP4eba... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,240 | 1,530 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Tamil Nadu state government officially announce a ban on the use of personal smartphones by students in all state-run government schools during school hours before March 20, 2026? | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Tamil Nadu government, through the Department of School Education or a cabinet decision, issues an official Government Order (GO) or public policy directive that prohibits students from using personal smartphones during school hours in all state-run schools. The policy must be newly ... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | 1fdb7fc8-1c3d-45b1-98b8-f6474e145867 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ban on bringing, using personal devices in schools still in place (published on 2025-12-18 by thevibes.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Malaysia's Education Minister Fadhlina Sidek said the ban on students bringing and using personal d... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: give a probability that the Tamil Nadu state government will officially announce a ban on personal smartphones for students in all state-run government schools during school hours, between Dec 23, 2025 and March 20, 2026.
We have given some context: news articles. One article (1... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFz2meTl27NT71jIvacNroiV-pfWJbq6_3zTAJ8CUFLnD5XT8XuXaR_HiQEg8XBppsKn7uWFsn7xUVVVY5LsfJImXyg-bVML1o_3VYagmVVcMcxeTf-txStZCys9foqoC2uuLpBkq4AjpNPSsGyr9O_zVVa4AxzfCZrjTT5ncGh53FfM76stLNUsRPI5AFnsI0y4Hk3eWbu3brDNlwdk259sSByOsSQ, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.02 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,139 | 1,987 | null | -0.020203 | 0.0004 | -0.020203 |
Will the Union Ministry of Education of India announce the appointment of a new Director for the Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology (MNNIT) Prayagraj before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ministry of Education or the NIT Council officially announces the name of a successor to the current Director of MNNIT Prayagraj on or before February 1, 2026. The announcement must be made via a press release from the Press Information Bureau (PIB), an update on the official MNNIT... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 54f810bc-9ec9-4754-8743-8a654c3bcd50 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "MNNIT Prayagraj new Director appointment announcement; Union Ministry of Education India appoints Director MNNIT Prayagraj; MNNIT Prayagraj Director tenure ends 2025 2026; MNNIT Prayagraj Director selection committee search proce... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the Union Ministry of Education of India will announce the appointment of a new Director for MNNIT Prayagraj before Feb 1, 2026. The question date is Dec 23, 2025. So we have about 1 month and 10 days (approximately 40 days) from now until the... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQELFKRVu7HCs5xOgHB3aUKwAAfGXWrJxjtr5nqC6c6_QQmwIHphuFsYiYYtDrxVZt19ZSDa_WBwzw_l9VeLaveMnuep5VsJDh2PTeEoLkXtqs--La5P-Rt6sHhfy0cNdjmwbXYtUY-tEmslkB3o837cRNfmlv0jEtzjJYh6QFo=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFj7P-_V7Ly... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 413 | 1,024 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will a European Data Protection Authority announce a formal investigation into Spotify's data security practices following the scraping claims by Anna's Archives before March 23, 2026? | 2026-03-23T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if any official Data Protection Authority (DPA) within the European Union or the United Kingdom (e.g., Ireland's DPC, the UK ICO) publicly announces a formal inquiry or investigation specifically into Spotify's technical safeguards related to the scraping of music metadata or files report... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-23T00:00:00 | c88592de-4d9d-4f06-9404-b58182d4b9ff | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pirate activist group scrapes Spotify library of 86 million audio files (published on 2025-12-22 by rappler.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A pirate activist group, via Anna's Archive, claims it scraped Spotify at scale, releasing mus... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that a European Data Protection Authority (DPA) will announce a formal investigation into Spotify's data security practices following the scraping claims by Anna's Archives before March 23, 2026.
We have context: news articles from Dec 21-22, 20... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,952 | 3,794 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will Nanta Tech shares close at a price of Rs 231.00 or higher on their debut trading day on the BSE SME platform, currently scheduled for December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price of Nanta Tech (the entity described in the article) is equal to or greater than Rs 231.00 (representing a 5% gain over the upper price band of Rs 220) on its first day of trading on the BSE SME platform. If the listing is delayed beyond December 31, 2025, the resoluti... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 72419cad-c38f-45bc-bbfa-623d547aa7bc | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Christmas IPO Calendar Alert: 1 mainboard, 10 SME IPOs to open between Dec 22-26 (published on 2025-12-19 by financialexpress.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Dalal Street's holiday-shortened IPO week (Dec 22–26) includes 11 subscripti... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that Nanta Tech shares will close at Rs 231.00 or higher on their debut trading day on the BSE SME platform, which is scheduled for Dec 31, 2025, given the available context. The question: "Will Nanta Tech shares close at a price of Rs 231.00 or ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHGSqEBKtJ9hOGz0Xja6s1KrI6jsp4SFc7hi5SjACelBRUwhjGRN_9cTE5uxQpbPP66FaNqTmZ0BkRq89QdPeP6T95-xoDXMc5yksas31lucDKX5v97lxKQh4EN9g2s6d_AxUOvLicXcInFRQ9p9aP0kgZgqnzGc7AAQf19FaujyXrMU0M0dLMOjNPgYiY9lBq_vQVKh1Y5mTM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | true | 2 | null | 0.32 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,460 | 5,839 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | -1.139434 |
Will the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) in India issue a formal notification by March 1, 2026, that authorizes income tax officers to access taxpayers' private social media account passwords during routine scrutiny assessments? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) or the Ministry of Finance publishes a notification, circular, or legislative amendment on an official government website (such as incometaxindia.gov.in or egazette.gov.in) that explicitly grants tax officers the legal authority to require passw... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | daab8959-a7a1-45ad-97df-5cb71a430a79 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Can income tax department access your social media and emails from April 1? Here's what the Government says (published on 2025-12-22 by upstox.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The government clarified that online claims about the Incom... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability that CBDT will issue a formal notification (on official websites) by March 1, 2026, that authorizes income tax officers to access taxpayers' private social media account passwords during routine scrutiny assessments.
Context: Several news article... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE45dVVDfQNpgnNKxk4fh3GR3Z5qsYukhgQQD48260bwbdi37scFtXV2xGKaRMeMATkvBezjc-_0hk0oRkgaVXlITGpnjCQieyWIo1XtbT-wwx4haFJEREc-F3CEOe55iC6prB34vM=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHOnUo_b12CbNLsxpMKxZLfHol_nGyLaXTvGMQmlDJn... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,389 | 2,860 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Uttar Pradesh state government or local Basti district authorities carry out a demolition of any structure belonging to the accused in the Dharmendra Chaudhary murder case before March 25, 2026? | 2026-03-25T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a government agency—such as the Basti district administration, police, or development authority—publicly reports or carries out a demolition of a building or structure belonging to Mohan Kumar, Jitendra, Ashish, Raj, or Amarendra (the suspects in the December 2025 murder of Dharmendra ... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-25T00:00:00 | 60a16f63-0edd-4d4e-a594-04381e630d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Dharmendra Chaudhary murder case demolition structure; Basti district authorities demolition accused property Dharmendra Chaudhary; Uttar Pradesh demolition drive accused property notice case Dharmendra Chaudhary; Dharmendra Chau... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the Uttar Pradesh state government or local Basti district authorities will carry out a demolition of any structure belonging to the accused (Mohan Kumar, Jitendra, Ashish, Raj, or Amarendra) in the Dharmendra Chaudhary murder case before Marc... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFsego6SFlqKbqEomtIjrRUZeBTs9iCMery2H4hf_trqO6cDI5fYV0Pj6JFgkitrNr1Snsk5ZB1l5bzrI6cx88o5FhGdJWgZEa4MJcSeKdlTt1z7M2Mg2_spg4vx6lMK62C0gXLOIqYrtjTAtS1j_Bt94u9IHQn0fd_8Op0teMhevpj4Vl1sKhn-eOgq-NN9qx_3iquKp89OeaJHEO4Tztob77Vfs8=, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 438 | 861 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Government of India introduce an amendment to Section 247 of the Income Tax Act, 2025, in the Parliament of India before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a bill containing a formal amendment to Section 247 of the Income Tax Act, 2025, is introduced in either the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha by the resolution date. Introduction must be verifiable through the official business of the house (sansad.in) or major news outlets (The Hindu, Eco... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 9cfed4f6-d89f-4f55-9705-c945af5e53ae | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] The Income Tax Act, 2025: A Modern Framework for a New Era (published on 2025-11-25 by caclubindia.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: The Income Tax Act, 2025 replaces the 1961 Act and is effective from 1 April 2026, aiming to simplify a... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that "Government of India will introduce an amendment to Section 247 of the Income Tax Act, 2025 in Parliament before March 15, 2026." If introduced, must be verified via official Business of House or major news outlets. Today is Dec 23, 2025. Need to assess... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFTEjmNmzOlJGtTMeHq2b88IZEoFDd8vDvMf-Td4GDcAQMI9Sa39_weyFMA2cCgAUT3X-kW1FXaFCWREuczI9gN2VddK-oMC46o59R3L09v7mJCDpfOzn_hAi3lSotJ51mNoh7q, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEzzVUUZjOp7qpNHQUT1lCbF2z8b_IuUwakLEnaVlvB_vWT... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,572 | 2,052 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Jharkhand Department of Labour, Employment, Training, and Skill Development officially announce a labor law violation penalty or a suspension against KMV Projects/Constructions related to the Jagarnath Mahto Medical College site before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Jharkhand Department of Labour, or a similar state regulatory body, issues an official notice or press release announcing a financial penalty, a formal blacklisting, or a stop-work order specifically citing labor safety or regulatory violations by KMV Projects/Constructions at the ... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 3a27511c-ca13-448d-bd20-28fe750ecd4d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Jharkhand Department of Labour Employment Training Skill Development penalty suspension KMV Projects Constructions; KMV Projects/Constructions Jagarnath Mahto Medical College site labor law violation Jharkhand; Jagarnath Mahto Me... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We must examine the problem, which is to forecast the probability that a certain Indian state department (Jharkhand Department of Labour, Employment, Training, and Skill Development) will officially announce a labor law violation penalty or suspension against KMV Projects/Constructions rel... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEJX5stM7cu73lf6hAeLxOHoGB9ualfAl8vYd1pXNuvv_JP8JO9gJMpW1aqGfCMNyddyT3v9rdWQsekVGuQlTV4pUbZqI2lqlRx34kziJDHvDlDpe0ydeWpxuVEOMoD, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEI6t1KFfpixs6sIMmDDM1YGCKKW_XBQI5Uf47zD1ouvZD8ALLhQajU... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 426 | 1,592 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will at least one of the 'Big Three' record labels (Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, or Warner Music Group) file a copyright infringement lawsuit against Anna's Archives or its known operators before March 23, 2026? | 2026-03-23T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if court records or official press releases from Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, or Warner Music Group (including their subsidiaries) confirm the filing of a civil lawsuit for copyright infringement against the entity 'Anna's Archives' or individuals identified as its ope... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | ceedb513-b958-4b4d-abae-0376e0fe7dc6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Activist group says it has scraped 86m music files from Spotify (published on 2025-12-22 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Anna's Archive says it scraped 86m music files from Spotify and 256m rows of metadata, preparing t... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task:
Given a question: "Will at least one of the 'Big Three' record labels (Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, or Warner Music Group) file a copyright infringement lawsuit against Anna's Archives or its known operators before March 23, 2026?"
We have today's date: 2025... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGtWway0kjr75wp4eCEPEk4wiBAiFS34v-aqf3l-KR30X9wEHQEwvXWT2WmMZThNWBW_L0O2NwjBEwalgefvXLjRHRvj4I3GqW7XwBzN6Q3qC87oG_u0nYIHUYpnN-MczxXM1zplfD_z5DmI6QDZapWeJdkq8ciTHA4Wk4rKtXrIWLRY3-EaZKkrmgd7-ylkHSi0BMx2wLYOOTVJKJnFQ0JAmkFDlYDRrqhN1rADceBGvT2DZJvBhKB, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,200 | 2,788 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | -1.514128 |
Will the Bihar State Government issue a formal directive to ban or suspend the operations of all unregistered microfinance institutions across the state before February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Government of Bihar (via the Home Department or Finance Department) issues an official order, Gazette notification, or public directive that explicitly prohibits the operation of all microfinance institutions not registered with the RBI or State authorities, citing the investigation ... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 1d944283-b94b-4cf4-a141-b6f02d352734 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Bihar government directive ban unregistered microfinance institutions; Bihar microfinance unregistered institutions suspension directive 2026; Bihar microfinance regulator order unregistered NBFC-MFIs licensing; Bihar RBI guideli... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Bihar state government will issue a formal directive to ban/suspend operations of all unregistered microfinance institutions (MFIs) across the state before Feb 20 2026.
We have limited context: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" bu... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF-z1CHN3IT8oVnUgxk21-ZTH3amncQvRZeY4NXmlPbxWvYW0okFQGU2ItS00YWdWq0m3q0vc6fKvqwkbGWUD_FhAsF_c_kkNbx_9_moY7pG5Pq4ngfjxHrs5iat6ixUTU-Sp95n85cca_rOnLsvuqz9jfxrOpas3BeM88Jym9up0Jjgg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFS... | true | 2 | null | 0.11 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 415 | 1,746 | null | -0.116534 | 0.0121 | -0.116534 |
Will the Andhra Pradesh State Government or the Tribal Welfare Department officially reinstate Sathish as the Personal Assistant to Minister Gummadi Sandhya Rani by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Andhra Pradesh State Government or the office of Minister Gummadi Sandhya Rani issues a formal order or public statement declaring that Sathish has been reinstated to his former position as Personal Assistant (PA). This follows his resignation in November 2025 due to allegations th... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 1744a284-21b6-44f7-8cbe-75c737bed277 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Woman Alleges Sexual Harassment By AP Minister's PA (published on 2025-11-28 by deccanchronicle.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: A woman clerk at Saluru in Parvathipuram Manyam alleged sexual harassment by B. Satish, the unofficial per... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to provide a probability estimate for the event:
"Will the Andhra Pradesh State Government or the Tribal Welfare Department officially reinstate Sathish as the Personal Assistant to Minister Gummadi Sandhya Rani by March 1, 2026?"
We have to rely on information up to Dec 23, 2025... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEP9oGLv3iuK8LYOqhV8TZNBcsDHrAAmBgwWYeeiC2HX-W6E0DouBexkdT7g4VBdSDHpORJeYI7YsN5XGSxOG0PsK-jzNmgOOFOb489rJJOosNxK5tTgzHoyg1N4NFAdGCNdqq7WaRkKGC496niVHTYr2FLhcO-iaBse2RvhBRKLNF__HSi9WlbM5TrRO6aKa3yrdftOgEeHNQU01I=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 605 | 2,558 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will the Bokaro district police or a Jharkhand state magistrate formally file a charge sheet (prosecution report) against any management-level employee of KMV Constructions in relation to the death of Amarnath Singh by March 24, 2026? | 2026-03-24T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a law enforcement agency in Jharkhand (such as the Sector-12 Bokaro Police) confirms to the press or through an official release that they have submitted a final investigation report (charge sheet) to a court naming any supervisor, manager, or executive of KMV Constructions as an accu... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-24T00:00:00 | 13c92118-ed70-48aa-b551-a1e70951314d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Amarnath Singh death KMV Constructions charge sheet filing Bokaro district police; KMV Constructions Amarnath Singh death prosecution report magistrate; Bokaro district police Amarnath Singh KMV Constructions closure report charg... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for the specific event: Will the Bokaro district police or a Jharkhand state magistrate formally file a charge sheet (prosecution report) against any management-level employee of KMV Constructions in relation to the death of Amarnath Singh by March ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEa_Ha9_h0jka6JuBJQVT63QwuueQD6tBrOYsMh7xMKnzSC24MInY8N6FhRzlKGvHtnlCN9dUrAgfWk92cnP-GQ0XkR1wh53vUTMIvoOYShZq-FiCRbF3Z3jAUOobLO7CfBS5nkmjd9xn5ebKUaXKFLAcXs3rOtx6LEtttn7gKENI6-PArbr2bX_BJpNaCznayrruwWnj8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 425 | 973 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will the equity shares of Bai Kakaji Polymers Limited close at a price higher than the initial public offering (IPO) issue price of Rs 186 on its debut trading day on the BSE SME platform? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the closing price of Bai Kakaji Polymers Limited on the BSE SME platform is greater than Rs 186.00 on the first day of trading (scheduled for December 31, 2025). If the shares list at or below Rs 186.00, or if the listing is postponed beyond December 31, 2025, the question resolves to ... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 09bd53e9-61ee-4c1b-8526-bbb30a95cd1c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] PET preform closures manufacturer Bai Kakaji Polymers to launch IPO on December 23; check price band, size (published on 2025-12-18 by moneycontrol.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Maharashtra-based Bai Kakaji Polymers, which makes PET... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability forecast that the equity shares of Bai Kakaji Polymers Limited will close higher than the IPO issue price of Rs 186 on its debut trading day (Dec 31, 2025) on the BSE SME platform.
We need to consider the given context: news articles about t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE-zgvdcgnrNhIDmbgqdL79XTIVkq3PVin-kpXawViyJujJFkaVQLhkPyQIW99mGO4u0baku0hn8dhhXtAPqMV98li8Rbc0sHW3yrAI3o5qtbvWBHBRNMWR-tY4hBGeoaeAPa1Eqe8-gDq-_pBRireq1m9nJNsNXQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFFqtOTpJxIEhb4JU0k... | true | 2 | null | 0.17 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,994 | 3,227 | null | -1.771957 | 0.6889 | -1.771957 |
Will a formal appeal against the life imprisonment sentence in the Bulandshahr gang-rape case be filed by the convicts in the Allahabad High Court before March 20, 2026? | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a petition for appeal or a criminal appeal case is officially filed in the Allahabad High Court (including its Lucknow bench) by any of the convicts (Zubair, Salim, Sajid, etc.) or their legal representatives against the conviction and sentencing announced on or around December 23, 2025.... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | ac29cb05-bef2-4dfe-bf8f-58e744f72888 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Bulandshahr gang rape case life imprisonment appeal Allahabad High Court convicts file; Bulandshahr gang rape case convicts lawyer appeal filing timeline March 2026; Allahabad High Court Bulandshahr gang rape appeal next hearing ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that a formal appeal against the life imprisonment sentence in the Bulandshahr gang-rape case will be filed by the convicts in the Allahabad High Court before March 20, 2026.
We are given today's date: 2025-12-23. The sentencing was announced on o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFzlSkrxpnD-rjyoOylTIa8d8coUNMxWhHvfiPgvOZpQwLd1cjqSmtN-gYKs1UnRqSpBTPPb847izNPLp-ICk5HYRVmH9Bh-WUUlLQnHMY28n8fTUMLVz8FBiVjSvAvec18WUbb7_h0ol-MCneRcXEijrSeBnms1d6cSdspETM5kwZ9bAaip3h09w0MmWRkKP45eflQeVxjd-5RqS7APTVHbsC4h6A0jaHY2ltiQFpxfMjKhVRKtNeKDrY=,... | true | 2 | null | 0.86 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 425 | 1,222 | null | -1.966113 | 0.7396 | -1.966113 |
Will M.K. Stalin announce a formal reshuffle of the Tamil Nadu Council of Ministers before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, M.K. Stalin, officially announces or implements a reshuffle of his cabinet (changing portfolios or inducting/removing at least one minister) as reported by credible news outlets like The Hindu, Times of India, or official government gazettes between Dece... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 89fadf55-fa6b-41ce-99a4-de901b8b4048 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Leadership change: Congress high command carefully weighing multiple options (published on 2025-11-28 by thehindu.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Congress loyalists in Karnataka press for CM Siddaramaiah's cabinet reshuffle and D.K. S... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability forecast for whether M.K. Stalin will announce a formal reshuffle of the Tamil Nadu Council of Ministers before March 1, 2026, given the current date (Dec 23 2025) and any context available.
We have limited context: news articles about other stat... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQETXWV8sjNtE940lpKdB2SOK68ydqsWVHmupSkbF3tiwALJ-bMow48RgHpoDzJFGKO8MO6LeDuXplHhwfIr89y-GQ18NHPonA8JQk6sAcZHQOZ9b9kWp2B2V2bAOWs6b5yUAkJkoCrRR8qA14EAQZwUOsyo7t20H81QeFmDS6DXXmLWLZsV1M89L9UmJnw9PvVI72Y4RJ9SDQ_7PPuEmCQO0iui2tJ3SkX9XDyO6Pzpv_sUEKC12btaRlWHL... | true | 2 | null | 0.23 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,426 | 1,981 | null | -0.261365 | 0.0529 | -0.261365 |
Will at least one of the adult suspects in the Dharmendra Chaudhary murder case be formally charged under the Uttar Pradesh Gangsters and Anti-Social Activities (Prevention) Act before March 25, 2026? | 2026-03-25T00:00:00 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Basti district police or Uttar Pradesh state authorities officially announce that the Gangsters Act has been invoked against Mohan Kumar, Jitendra, Ashish, Raj, or Amarendra in relation to the investigation into the 2025 murder of Dharmendra Chaudhary. This must be confirmed by a n... | null | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-25T00:00:00 | 8fce4b40-fd03-43db-a3e6-3402f883656a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Dharmendra Chaudhary murder case adult suspects UP Gangsters and Anti-Social Activities Act charge; Dharmendra Chaudhary murder UP police gangsters act 2026 chargesheet; \"Gangsters and Anti-Social Activities\" Prevention Act Dha... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need produce probability that at least one adult suspect will be formally charged under Uttar Pradesh Gangsters and Anti-Social Activities (Prevention) Act (UGAA) before March 25 2026, given context.
We have only the problem statement: It includes a placeholder "NEWS: Recent news artic... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH2oceurgNgIJ7o9Ra3guL99QSduRUCTHkxfWU8DjV5aex725CUCLMenYSj9odz3m7xNSFb-HX-Oiw8GiE4FfxxBIGukQxrndxwhhGPQXI6A5nilPmxARsoImCNys66akw6fxBx5YZusV2j3P0LqgS02d1HNIdrdAozA56PO4iPTPjL0mHCMGB9wQzkrqnFgFnDDKL8eX9w7NOzrR5MGhllwTIQMcOdNSij_zuuIl_5xJKQzvQw_jgY5nkGv... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 434 | 2,496 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will Basavaraj Horatti, Chairman of the Karnataka Legislative Council, be officially announced as leaving his current legislative leadership role or resigning before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Karnataka Legislative Council, the state government, or via a reputable news outlet (e.g., The Hindu, Deccan Herald, Times of India) stating that Basavaraj Horatti has resigned or is vacating the position of Chairman of the Legislative Council. Oth... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 437e861b-26a2-43d0-9c22-1719b76cadb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Karnataka Legislative Council head Basavaraj Horatti faces no-confidence threat as Congress alleges recruitment corruption (published on 2025-12-09 by indianexpress.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Karnataka Legislative Council chairpe... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for whether Basavaraj Horatti will be officially announced as leaving his current legislative leadership role (Chairman of Karnataka Legislative Council) or resigning before March 1, 2026. The question states that resolution is based on a formal an... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3MjLXe-TR5fkVXMteqrPWgh5o6HkNucNJU0w0kaHq-sWhHthJRe664JaMs-ez9_jfk6tKj0u_1T_TXcoZJ-SRs0Ajq_vJX6EAbvFT0u_YuirhU02PTxYo2rzTcGvmWmrrFIVzyPghwwhioDRfPk1H3ngAv8R1DjjNg3rvefr8l-SKNebmaBSLX6vYr9lKJuphXX_C-f-LUixj6EJ7oog0z-eM_gBsBgkI8TGT4-mHltqS6iji, https:/... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,584 | 2,153 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass at least one article of impeachment against Attorney General Pam Bondi before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a simple majority of the U.S. House of Representatives votes in favor of at least one article of impeachment against Attorney General Pam Bondi between December 24, 2025, and February 28, 2026. Official records from the Clerk of the House or reports from major news outlets (AP, Reuter... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 6e8ea737-10e0-4520-8d91-67f979493e93 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Lawmakers weigh impeachment articles for Bondi over Epstein file omissions (published on 2025-12-20 by latimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Lawmakers threatened to seek impeachment against U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi over the J... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate for the event:
"Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass at least one article of impeachment against Attorney General Pam Bondi before March 1, 2026?" (From Dec 24, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026). Current date is Dec 24, 2025. So we are evaluating a nea... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG2CQDO-M_JeUiVxugOj3wDBGD3u8yZ3KNQiVEM7i2hefXDekNz7k16W3HJWIj_nHd75gdezQcpX-alldJPzeLkUoiAyyE3Zv_6CDRFXGMTCKL5ZEoMokH85Yug6L0SG9rY5A==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEjeMKxeALoyqZy48w1pvZ-lBEQUuGIuv-mKNjJ56aIWuXL... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,859 | 3,271 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Executive Branch of the United States formally submit a legislative proposal to Congress for a new round of direct stimulus payments before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal legislative proposal or a message to Congress requesting a bill for direct stimulus checks (such as the $2,000 checks mentioned in the article) is officially transmitted by the White House to the U.S. Congress between January 1, 2026, and March 31, 2026. Official transmittal is ... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2130ba21-f1fe-4292-a01c-5ed310ecc20a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump $2,000 tariff checks update: Here's the latest on the president's proposal (published on 2025-12-04 by ktvb.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: President Donald Trump reiterated his plan to send Americans $2,000 rebate checks funded... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that the Executive Branch of the United States will formally submit a legislative proposal to Congress for a new round of direct stimulus payments before April 1, 2026 (i.e., between Jan 1 2026 and March 31 2026 inclusive). The context: we have lat... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEnjaarjPs1-VsL2HO3uThsG2dtRDOu_OkX5tCHAJadzl_1eOg_K8QsONW7S8V5oTo48IsVHvpKOhE4bQ84M383fwCEnysTyF1W94hjSlZuokdHFeWj1kL-o2QBL4CMzKzt-iJSrM0=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHGSOSNOL7c3bqBOkwO3MWjFQAadMS_K7-YuXktOpei... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,059 | 2,878 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will a formal agreement to end the war or a nationwide ceasefire be signed by representatives of both Ukraine and Russia on or before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal document establishing a nationwide ceasefire or a peace treaty is signed by authorized representatives of the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation by 11:59 PM UTC on March 15, 2026. This must be a comprehensive cessation of hostilities, not a localized or temporary ... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 3bcd91fe-4261-47cc-b311-85091af538b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What we know about the revised US plan for peace in Ukraine (published on 2025-11-26 by france24.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating around a revised US-drafted plan developed by US,... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that a formal agreement to end the war or nationwide ceasefire will be signed by authorized representatives of both Ukraine and Russia on or before March 15, 2026.
Given the context: list of news articles up to December 2025. We have to weigh the evidence, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHOKyFp6MpTx-j0PSJ2CgEUvCUb0Fnu0ZGzTYw-gIJt3u81mdMmZQgac6RJqQcbcQoz3HYDU6jtDWz_e0XsXEMDpTrGNjD4Qh_W_n4FnSdfVWD406L4dysbmvxfPmGalF8oi9zN4Rv5Gytm5lbBagwkEw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQET_jEyBrItM-fM5piJm8onG0yW... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,183 | 1,775 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice announce that it has completed the public release of all 1.45 million records required by the Epstein Transparency Act before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issues an official statement via its website (justice.gov) or official social media channels confirming that the entire trove of 1.45 million records (or the complete set as mandated by the Epstein Transparency Act) has been processed and made avai... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-30T00:00:00 | 239f7ded-b9d7-4eae-a28e-376599a4c124 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'Incomplete Release': DOJ Chickens Out on Epstein Files in Violation of New Law (published on 2025-12-19 by democracydocket.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The DOJ missed a Friday deadline to publicly release all Jeffrey Epstein-relat... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability forecast that DOJ will announce it has completed public release of all 1.45 million required records by Feb 1, 2026. Resolve condition: official statement confirming full completion by 11:59 PM ET on Jan 31, 2026. No statement or incomplete r... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFj77W36Xgay51C4LMaYfbnxuhpUUNHSAW7oiT3q4qhVYo-09GOoJUewMXPwk1oZgAS_YTZK-VFqYNhwVWeO5TT3_gegLEzJJ1JyM8E3cFKY6ou3c6AElviMGRWfx3w6LBHcvxer63v0iklmzd06L6e9fPVl9pvcTqxoJ6DvmWuWwjvrE0RTIQu9TO3y9vPFUfknPgHCcORndYQ004Shf83V2NqAFcqWbasfCs=, https://vertexaisea... | true | 2 | null | 0.17 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,075 | 3,775 | null | -1.771957 | 0.6889 | -1.771957 |
Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal agreement to end the war, including a timeline for Russian troop withdrawal from the Donbas, before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal, written peace agreement or treaty intended to end the war is signed by authorized representatives of both Ukraine and the Russian Federation on or before February 28, 2026. This agreement must include a documented schedule or commitment for the withdrawal of Russian military ... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 5685e11d-b52a-4851-a367-b1c76f9e07a7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2025 (published on 2025-11-24 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: US and Ukrainian delegations reportedly narrowed an initial US-proposed 28-point Ukraine-Russia peac... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability that Ukraine and Russia will sign a formal agreement to end the war, including timeline for Russian troop withdrawal from Donbas, before March 1 2026. Current date: Dec 24, 2025. So time horizon: about 2 months. There is a lot of background n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGTUA5O1zu4Jc23vYyjUCQbccMoSOHeqs2bYfr7zS6B9bGSS_IiPzWtL6-Qh8FkOoTp2mOTeKFjRFvfW8MzwPZkRovYSeStx83V4fQ3pe498itl785QcokqhHW4gH1kNrXB_EnXnRIu7FzPhOw=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEOW9llo3psF9DKXmQmnPpRP7Ie09fkNBWY... | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,226 | 3,048 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | -0.061875 |
Will the Karnataka state government officially announce a new public infrastructure project for the Dharwad district valued at over 100 crore INR before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Karnataka State Cabinet or the Chief Minister's Office publishes an official release or a major news outlet (The Hindu, Indian Express, Reuters) reports on a new government sanction for an infrastructure project (roads, water, or housing) specifically located in Dharwad with a bud... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-03-06T00:00:00 | 09c52da3-cec2-4f07-b383-4d2861a9b85a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Karnataka government officially announce new public infrastructure project Dharwad over 100 crore; Dharwad district infrastructure project 100 crore Karnataka government announcement; Karnataka state government Dharwad project 'c... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for event: "Will the Karnataka state government officially announce a new public infrastructure project for the Dharwad district valued at over 100 crore INR before March 15, 2026?" The context given includes "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGQuMw1-kjP6rS_749CbOUufXPu9qEFATsIc6VDmPDQJHhb4OY7S0CqAm-f97CpfgCEu3AYf-5uO0EAfwdMsoedYErUgA5StA2YO8qBZh-4G2RTHhmyIc_wPehOEasg3wSqtAhPJn3qhPeotwOQ0HH1wHdnjcyjEmERal6oDQpg0_J704soQCDvCELE-7i6Dpw0Y1zcujrmGd9zz_T5g9V0sW4PHdGStTd6cc5zq4L7EZD5zPG2bHxV8PqP9... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 398 | 2,245 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | -1.514128 |
Will Ukraine and the United States sign a formal agreement establishing a joint venture for the operation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, by March 1, 2026, the governments of Ukraine and the United States officially sign a bilateral agreement to create a joint venture or consortium to operate the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). This agreement must be formal and public. If the agreement is a tripartite one involvi... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | de011ccd-7a7d-4158-a458-65fb90d4be10 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelensky says he's open to creating demilitarized zone in Ukraine's industrial heartland (published on 2025-12-23 by arabnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Zelensky said the US proposed a \"free economic zone\" that should be demili... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast of whether Ukraine and United States will sign a formal agreement establishing a joint venture for operation of Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by March 1, 2026.
Our date today: 2025-12-24. The close date is 2026-03-01, about 2 months away (approx 66 d... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHvlFS11IyGU2rogMjF03uW9QWW_yVxrekgVBEgyXIM5JHDoW9pp3j9QPK5_aQJXlKMeN0Ni8gUrIn-_mdvB-vluuC1iFS9Vk3Xdm8YZFZJkN5PHsA6JJvfMAmFUCF7aP6lvyr_FDGy4gDZjJxiUMWLBMdRBaOSx6E9A1VMu86B8dSVC8iSfn-MlliXy8FDkk685y3r4RInDFo7AfhQBz7ZmiE9KI74zniyWDUbTqw77Q3ohH5j7jC3Bg==,... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,974 | 1,984 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Ukrainian government officially schedule or hold a national referendum regarding a peace deal with Russia by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by 11:59 PM UTC on March 31, 2026, the Ukrainian government (President or Verkhovna Rada) has officially passed legislation or issued a decree setting a specific date for a national referendum to approve a peace agreement with Russia, or if such a referendum has already taken place. T... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | fcefdf80-dba1-4bd7-a07f-4587d407c758 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelenskiy Floats Referendum Over Territory as US Pressure Mounts (published on 2025-12-11 by bloomberg.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy suggested Ukrainians could be allowed to vote on whether to hand Russ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability forecast for the event: "Will the Ukrainian government officially schedule or hold a national referendum regarding a peace deal with Russia by April 1, 2026?" The question is evaluated as Yes if by March 31, 2026, the Ukrainian government has off... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG5UQDNr4u3CvID_8c0nkRYa95Im5wLkA9uSOU9gLU6VJ06el6LKp8OmCvvJTmaQsGRRg6I45RwMKqSIH4SXVSf9ha84PGxeawY9kMKZ2VeAnIPxpCtmrfUujgCbAVkWuwpAnIUR88x9gExebzyCIFj, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFWQ64mrzmSDlBDBFr1GnYbR6-4ZzBJ... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,985 | 6,496 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Supreme Court of the United States issue a ruling by July 1, 2026, regarding the constitutionality of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as applied to the administration's tariff authority? | 2026-07-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a formal opinion in a case specifically challenging the use of the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) for the imposition of broad-based tariffs on or before June 30, 2026. The resolution will be based on the official 'Opinion... | null | 2025-12-24T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 02115f77-742d-4805-b496-91f1985ea93b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Supreme Court Set To Decide Fate Of Trump Tariffs (published on 2025-12-17 by evrimagaci.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to decide in January 2026 (possibly later than some expect) whether President Trump... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that SCOTUS will issue a ruling (a formal opinion) on the constitutionality of IEEPA as applied to the administration's tariff authority by July 1, 2026.
We have a question date of Dec 24, 2025 (today). The close date is July 1, 2026. So we need to assess l... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGXRTf8cHvvTwO2t50Vw6OVCW9O4sjV2cSNJsDUbgKly9TFPqSR6nU5u8cA3cGlXgTf3U-aTHdnLEXjVEc68s8JEvdet2o0ka6FxMN_CZ8i3GPjKvubcGRcY2vm7nIy-iGVfPfut_RzCiuxGqzjKzWhLN2QkxKwmnm9jFfHAwMrcblHf59cXR9RWYAckjlNwYBz1mj5CMePfOs=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | true | 2 | null | 0.63 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,162 | 2,884 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 | -0.462035 |
Will the United States Department of Defense (Department of War) announce at least one additional kinetic air strike against ISIS targets within the borders of Nigeria between December 27, 2025, and March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense (or 'Department of War' as referred to by the administration), U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), or the White House issues a public announcement or confirmation of a new kinetic military strike (drone or manned aircraft) occurring within Nigerian territory b... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 9d3aacc8-4d71-4c2c-a1cf-c84b6bd1fbfa | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. Strikes ISIS in Nigeria After Trump Warned of Attacks on Christians (published on 2025-12-25 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The U.S. launched a number of strikes against Islamic State targets in northwestern Nigeria a... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that US Department of Defense (DoD) will announce at least one additional kinetic air strike against ISIS targets within Nigeria between Dec 27, 2025 and March 1, 2026. We have context: Several news articles all dated Dec 25, 2025 reporting the f... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQETRAgKlifde4F7g5MpyghdPosburJe6q8EiyTWMNmYElu3wfJBUmPblkLKGOGCj-j04iPhFbxZ2b_EexQ3P1Me6d55DZNSnfUSHQ1Q5NxLpzMM2ZNFmzncrHF5gs0qUtDuTOuY17WY_m1lloIWKxW1R9NsgBSZ4i_T-sZSuGozDpKCvS-NtjUas8acJLsyBZZvKAUXorbfbpzqDJ_sz0w08yKfm88-AMM=, https://vertexaisearch.... | true | 2 | null | 0.38 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,070 | 1,928 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | -0.478036 |
Will the Government of Nigeria or President Bola Tinubu issue a formal statement between December 27, 2025, and January 10, 2026, that explicitly defines the legal or operational framework for U.S. military strikes on Nigerian soil? | 2026-01-11T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal press release from the Nigerian State House (presidency.gov.ng) or the Nigerian Ministry of Defence is issued that clarifies the terms (such as a Status of Forces Agreement, a specific counter-terrorism memorandum, or a formal invitation for kinetic support) under which U.S. air... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 2026-01-11T00:00:00 | 3b7d7d02-1a88-4358-9497-8676fb5584be | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump: U.S. struck Islamic State targets in Nigeria after group targeted Christians (published on 2025-12-25 by latimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: President Trump said the U.S. launched \"powerful and deadly\" strikes against ISI... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce probability forecast about whether the Government of Nigeria or President Bola Tinubu will issue a formal statement (press release) between Dec 27, 2025 and Jan 10, 2026 that explicitly defines the legal or operational framework for U.S. military strikes on Nigerian soil,... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,166 | 2,404 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the United States Department of Defense publicly announce or confirm at least one additional kinetic strike (air or missile) against militant targets within the borders of Nigeria after December 26, 2025, and before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) issues a formal press release or public statement confirming a U.S. military strike (via drone, manned aircraft, or naval vessel) carried out against targets in Nigeria between December 27, 2025, and Febr... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | f2b46b3a-604e-4408-b4a4-e93400f7825e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump launches 'powerful and deadly' Christmas Day strikes on ISIS targeting Christians in Nigeria: 'Terrorist Scum' (published on 2025-12-25 by nypost.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: President Trump said the U.S. launched \"powerful ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the US Department of Defense (or White House or AFRICOM) will publicly announce or confirm at least one additional kinetic strike (air or missile) against militant targets within Nigeria between Dec 27, 2025 and Feb 1, 2026.
We have a context... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGTZjJCVhxqDiw5R4ki3wrK_DaHVtxlbgT4wG5eeODrvtT5gjN9N_ocao5KS_m09DRjolsJnABGcIUPqUHjJwTLJZua-2GP3y1Ona02529JsjyWlz1GK42kxd_S1F-c5JOiwna8_wmRrO3XpcvPJyFWuxA9htZQCPzB6BGZ9HqjfTp7wUtNOG0G8kPKBMgQGhEyFJr0WTqikyttHaxwu7Y=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,475 | 3,303 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine be signed by representatives of both nations on or before March 26, 2026? | 2026-03-26T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a written, bilateral ceasefire agreement is signed by authorized representatives of the governments of Russia and Ukraine between December 26, 2025, and March 26, 2026. The signing must be confirmed by official government statements or major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, ... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-26T00:00:00 | 44d8670a-351f-4b12-aff3-badcc7f10bf8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine-Russia Talks 'Going Okay,' Trump Says, as Expert Warns Peace May Fail Before It Starts (published on 2025-12-23 by kyivpost.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ukraine and US officials say draft Ukraine-Russia peace framework docu... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to generate a calibrated forecast probability that a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be signed by the two governments (official signed written document) between Dec 26 2025 and March 26 2026. The context includes news up to Dec 23, 2025 (and earlier). Tod... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG5PIXXvn-DhBxg6oJpWpBYjmp4QdEY4aGpHN9dfNfMEYo-QtVxW2a3pZqPmCDmY_oiFEECZE0jGI8aHrO399yQTkdvqpt49R-GnHZ4YZQSqQMCI_pgzF5WMoyDiH3qsotsWX4un5kYcJIpqzA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3iFW3u075Y0Ht6b1uds8XYkB5EPubnJ-A... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,141 | 2,767 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the United States Department of Defense or the White House officially announce at least one additional airstrike conducted by U.S. forces in Nigeria between December 28, 2025, and January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-16T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Defense (defense.gov), the White House (whitehouse.gov), or the verified social media accounts of the U.S. President or Secretary of Defense confirm a new kinetic air operation (airstrike or drone strike) took place in Nigeria during the specified window. It resolv... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-16T00:00:00 | 9d7ec549-d249-47e8-a122-919cc755c406 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. Strikes ISIS in Nigeria After Trump Warned of Attacks on Christians (published on 2025-12-25 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The U.S. launched \"more than a dozen\" Tomahawk cruise-missile strikes against ISIS in north... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task:
We need to produce a well-calibrated probability forecast between 0 and 1 (inclusive) that the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House (including verified social media accounts of President or Secretary of Defense) will officially announce at least one additional airstrike... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE4sqwrNNOEfjECkHtsv_3ghoCp-_Xa9rfgUgqldUChxr6TR4V-FP5Xu4v1NfCilVQEe9NbMutF34udnOpHl2lYtJjoLLcR0X6z3fShvBEQyMCjUFU0gpvSkhCAomL_mguZtDBxgiwP3gyoVaZvV3TMpvRhPZebqwZqpvZGab-98M4AoEfqeEzwJ9VCkd4TgqHWgYNoDQK3_uXrQy3s_SlUoHYZwPlUF714jgregj9F7QjbhWPn, https:/... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,375 | 3,393 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) issue a formal communique or statement expressing concern over or condemning 'foreign military intervention' or 'unauthorized strikes' in Nigeria by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 26, 2025, and March 15, 2026, the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) publishes an official communique, press release, or statement on its official website (au.int) that explicitly mentions the military strikes in Nigeria and uses language expressing 'con... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 84b007e6-e25d-4ca6-b599-1faa8e8e74b6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Senegal prime minister calls Guinea-Bissau coup a 'sham' (published on 2025-11-28 by reuters.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko said Guinea-Bissau's coup is a \"sham\" and called for elections to co... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) will issue a formal communique or statement expressing concern over or condemning "foreign military intervention" or "unauthorized strikes" in Nigeria, by March 15, 2026.
We have context: n... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG7qwztId7lDMJNBZUPrI1SeSN0DTN9pq5gD22HDZrtplFE8HFOb8J-Ph_RniOf1PvuHEjiYgUOZMRQ-on05X4aOJHXiQwxlMeZeVhDxPM0mzT31g2x80D_h9VB_wzLdN-sLrGmagCpGJ1CBWRzYo7pTbRn4GyNwa3d_4g4uhSPkMbDGYgBw_FQmO4zlVAAACchKbMErCpiwg8vVQHii111om8KGWVZ9lWDzL2l-IYWqrR6pLnm4JpNcFLNk... | true | 2 | null | 0.03 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,548 | 2,741 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | -0.030459 |
Will a joint written statement be issued by the U.S. and Ukrainian governments before January 15, 2026, officially declaring a agreed-upon peace framework or ceasefire term following the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 28, 2025, and January 15, 2026, the White House (Executive Office of the President of the United States) and the Office of the President of Ukraine issue a joint memorandum, communiqué, or signed framework agreement that explicitly outlines agreed-upon terms for a cease... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | d800731c-41b5-4008-a701-a7bc3837fca3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US, Ukraine reportedly narrow 28-point peace plan to 19 points yet most sensitive elements left for leaders to discuss (published on 2025-11-25 by globaltimes.cn) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The US-proposed 28-point Ukraine peace plan ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast for whether a joint written statement will be issued by US and Ukrainian governments before Jan 15, 2026 (between Dec 28 2025 and Jan 15 2026) officially declaring an agreed-upon peace framework or ceasefire term, after the Trump-Zelensky meeting. T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGR0IDJObMl6h5Ds25qreWkmfAX-p_N75J-uEwsxEYAZEc8ngy5Joz7YscWsd-mGwNE3Qm5fQhCor8rKsLhkmZRkdPs9TOwaetzYHJJ5idxKcP0cTzPEJip4paTxnlWPrDRG8v-xMv8FA7RRHWekDE9x7ul3DgVKYT1, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHcPF7T42NUJqvPTYPM... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,159 | 2,256 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will the Russian government publicly agree to a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region, as proposed by President Zelenskyy, by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Kremlin, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or the President of Russia issues an official statement before February 1, 2026, explicitly accepting the creation of a 'demilitarized zone' (DMZ) within the Donetsk or Luhansk regions (Donbas) that involves the withdrawal of Russian ... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 7ba9336f-dc77-4629-982d-e4dce95a8722 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine accepts demilitarised zone to end Russia war, but do DMZs work? (published on 2025-12-25 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zelenskyy says Ukraine would turn parts of Donbas it controls into a demilitarised zone if R... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability forecast for whether the Russian government will publicly agree to a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region (as per Zelensky's Dec 23, 2025 proposal) by Feb 1, 2026. Today is Dec 26, 2025. So we have roughly about 5 weeks to end of 2025, plus ab... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFBVlAshVeEXclOHmiAydLKRGgRGcaRTejQeSzt8vY1CUxvDUS9iyqUtY4aTr3qGD_gYdIK8xBI1mDAxXHXbfLbE2ngcfEtuyQwNUrfnDcDaCQ7RARc-0hi_vEpsjRAA5o_YdyZ8gJxFbLasrGYWJ2_L_5nErHmBnJ2pA7qyLxr9CK5PmT3Q1H0TcHBEciT2EdOpJ5Z2SG2s5KaAeVxAd-7VuHYiL6jUhV_SeukKIxshSPsFvmzqc5u, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,213 | 3,271 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will the U.S. Department of State formally designate Nigeria as a 'Country of Particular Concern' (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Secretary of State or the U.S. Department of State includes Nigeria on the official list of 'Countries of Particular Concern' (CPC) for having engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom, as defined by the International Religious Freedom Act of ... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | 3d207a32-8723-44ab-93a5-5be0b0353c67 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump Threatens To Take Military Action In Nigeria Over 'Killing Of Christians' (published on 2025-12-02 by theowp.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Donald Trump has threatened military intervention in Nigeria over alleged \"killing of ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the US Department of State will formally designate Nigeria as a CPC before March 1, 2026. The date today is Dec 26 2025. The close date is March 1 2026, about ~2 months away (including all of January, February).
We have context: a set of re... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGwuoQnfgul6HQYelsPrY952bQK1JWgr3IOx6nS67tZgcUkBJyYB5j0aKLbhZXrnIwCXj6u4ip-WroBwASTP_7lxolO2gGmZVKiNz6_Dw2FBTFbQQyvGZq3SFbwrSlBef5F7cZi1ZjWlM1CPF2B4wdWiokGYTYUfYVMWk6lXtwSxjsMJvgsv3oNk7l0vv9Z72GI, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-r... | true | 2 | null | 0.32 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,230 | 4,682 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | -1.139434 |
Will a formal, written agreement establishing joint Ukrainian and Russian access to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant be publicly announced by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, by 11:59 PM UTC on April 1, 2026, a formal agreement involving Ukraine, Russia, and potentially the United States or IAEA is publicly announced through official government channels or major news organizations (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg). The agreement must explicitly specify a protocol fo... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 02eb5add-3b70-412a-af0e-569c7a7103d2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelenskyy unveils peace proposal under discussion with US (published on 2025-12-24 by tvpworld.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zelenskyy unveiled a draft 20-point Ukraine peace plan discussed with the United States. Two unresolved iss... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a forecast probability that a formal, written agreement establishing joint Ukrainian and Russian access to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be publicly announced by 2026-04-01.
Important: The question is about a formal, written agreement involving Ukraine, Russia, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF9ecvZDT8k0bku5kwTh-vvPxfOBNKW22k-LKuIq0W3lG_CLwwuHqg2d5OS2zNZQMcPqnIkPijNyMjuHZREtxngHLpOatKO8HKZeKC--3lLKXx5-5vAXJNsRYx0_OgnQizq7NZlrIy0LHpQPpi54CRq9T5h8QWp5xeMqdVLjrJuastOAEvbcJtFJPVtCe5u0y-X0_avyf89e5A=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,246 | 2,295 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the U.S. Department of State issue a 'Level 4: Do Not Travel' advisory for the entirety of Nigeria before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of State updates its Nigeria Travel Advisory to Level 4 (Do Not Travel) for the whole country (not just specific states like Sokoto or Borno) between December 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026. The advisory must be visible on the official travel.state.gov website. If ... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | c29c2550-862f-4615-9480-bc9e085d64d9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. Issues \"Do Not Travel\" Advisories And Warns Of Surge In Violence, Holiday Crimes, And Terrorist Activities In Tourist Destinations (published on 2025-12-20 by thetravel.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A week before Christmas, t... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the US Department of State will issue a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory for the entirety of Nigeria (the whole country) before Feb 15, 2026 (inclusive). Date today is Dec 26, 2025. So the time window is Dec 27, 2025 through Feb 15, 2026— ab... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHxt0DszbqDgSw1xcu76ZPX3x2VjgGR-DoiFNl8jPox_e3Sn79E-YMPBbnFNjGyuR5kzSDtQhd5yDk_PgK1ZGJscDmcuI1wv8g1nATOc_A936M7Vf06OIAML2hIrEQg_mv06yyUIBF7JJhxkaMVMD8SQ9lYP9i_uEz2eibxGTcoGnSS, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFiolgc... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,038 | 2,180 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the United States Department of Defense announce the deployment of additional U.S. military personnel to Nigeria for 'advise and assist' missions before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria officially announces that additional U.S. military personnel (beyond existing embassy security or pre-December 2025 levels) are being deployed to Nigeria to assist in counter-terrorism operations or trainin... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-04T00:00:00 | e39b3b2b-1ed1-495d-9421-a40e54411c8c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S. launches strikes against Islamic State forces in Nigeria, Trump says (published on 2025-12-25 by pbs.org) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Trump said the U.S. launched \"powerful and deadly\" strikes against Islamic State forces in Nig... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that US Department of Defense will announce deployment of additional US military personnel to Nigeria for "advise and assist" missions before March 1, 2026.
We need to use context (news) plus general knowledge (historical patterns, US policy, political context... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEDOxeYsQPooliwa8wqnVaS5YK3K6qRsNvyO-fFV0UXPnS3X9DBx3gmpgdcBM-fz5fvMlVAzg1IP4FdkMOnAyTah6LX0mZBpqAZ61dkqYCyGxZFq7A9hRoydbIOA_T-Ez5M3qUZ6kMWJiiTtbSe2Y3lhV5_sixa6h1inLWKRBJF6xp3bF6eRui3dW7NK0oAHN8SkGCkIaFT8OUGLzy5RTRe1rSrtLhePUH9cLECZZ2czp1QLXI2NF1RdWZ5m... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,906 | 3,338 | null | -1.966113 | 0.7396 | -1.966113 |
Will the Nigerian National Assembly pass a resolution or bill requesting a formal review or suspension of the existing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Senate or the House of Representatives of Nigeria passes a formal resolution or a bill that calls for the 'review', 'renegotiation', or 'suspension' of security cooperation or the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States in response to the December 2025 strikes. Res... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-27T00:00:00 | 07a8afd3-fa7c-4b24-8518-414d307c3d67 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Appropriators, Lawmakers Investigate Religious Persecution of Nigerians with Joint Briefing (published on 2025-12-02 by mariodiazbalart.house.gov) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: On Dec. 2, 2025, House Appropriations Vice Chair Mario Díaz-... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast (probability) that by April 1, 2026, the Nigerian National Assembly will pass a resolution or bill calling for a review, renegotiation, or suspension of the existing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States, in response to Decemb... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF62E_N3lKVSIt7uuyHabxQMWJ6sd43An1oYtjzB6dFWiSBAJMVHZLG2tE7GwYUvlhVpYPc4Yk3GNoe5LJOiY18yw-dTtzHqQc9-zQOvAubCYMBiK7Ih38svw2fPJG6bexmKw_yomLRo1dKAybzMdtdYKtpeXJkxa6TyOxR-50=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGrSc5Na0gg... | true | 2 | null | 0.03 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,491 | 1,680 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | -0.030459 |
Will a bilateral or multilateral document establishing a formal ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war be signed by representatives of both Ukraine and Russia on or before May 1, 2026? | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal document declaring a ceasefire is signed by official representatives of the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation by the end of May 1, 2026. The ceasefire must apply to the general front lines of the conflict. Verification will be based on official government stateme... | null | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 9616bfc5-fcc6-4110-bf29-a93b7bad8602 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 20 Points of Ukraine's Peace Plan: Security Guarantees, Reconstruction, EU Membership (published on 2025-12-24 by united24media.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ukraine has drafted a peace framework agreement with 20 points to end the ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that a bilateral or multilateral document establishing a formal ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war will be signed by representatives of both Ukraine and Russia on or before May 1, 2026. Today is Dec 26, 2025. So we have about about 4 months.
We have context: ne... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHbSLrdHfVK4gzJrGHPAyLPupynI2fVHsKxYjsVF-Lu-o7cv2GpnjB-WLinm92e4ZAbHDayrcJad7Hv_4fLflqimLECEFtycu-UEI-lvhnyMBNYRdpH9OWb1PeS-ZpTndrvrT74TyNORT1HqUFg6UjmBhoPoWWqC2RehZ72cBzcNh0bLDbnnopr8A075DX7UGdgIj0OGbHVAAwUu09WONpqSHAbagODqKHn2bhI3Q==, https://vertexa... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,140 | 2,592 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announce a major disaster declaration or an emergency declaration for any county in New York or New Jersey specifically in response to the December 2025 winter storm before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if FISA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) or the White House officially publishes an announcement of a major disaster declaration or emergency declaration citing the winter storm occurring around December 26-28, 2025, for at least one county in New York or New Jersey. The announce... | null | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | d7671404-7553-4c43-829d-9a1eb01d1855 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Immediate Threat, Legal Responsibility (published on 2025-12-16 by fema.gov) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: FEMA denied Manna of Life Ministries, Inc.'s second appeal (FEMA-4480-DR-NY) seeking about $125,989.61 in Public Assistance for CO... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that FEMA will announce a major disaster declaration or emergency declaration for any county in NY or NJ specifically in response to the "December 2025 winter storm" between Dec 27 2025 and Jan 15 2026.
We must base on evidence from context and background k... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGJ83EnSjovotx9hbjbsLcy20-VklbKIuRRasQkOjLxX9ZsD-9fTwJfSOBMgAjY9btrf9rgEotidp5syiBZvfY2eegJ_RTzDtn6V9EoP0u3KtMigStv7X10ro6R8QEtp6SnQm3QnQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEMlJibhoAR0MI50rNsd-zHTQzW3txC1xYTSeV4GegE... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,357 | 2,280 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will Ukraine officially acknowledge or will major defense monitoring entities confirm that Russian forces have secured full control over the city of Huliaipole by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by February 15, 2026, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense acknowledges the loss of Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia region) or if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) or DeepStateMap indicates that Russian forces have established control over the entirety of the city. As of December 27, 202... | null | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | fe956355-951f-479f-ade1-165570774928 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2025 (published on 2025-11-28 by criticalthreats.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: ISW/ Critical Threats assesses that the Ukrainian frontline is not facing imminent collapse despite R... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that by Feb 15, 2026, Ukraine will officially acknowledge loss of Huliaipole, or ISW or DeepStateMap will confirm Russian full control over city. Essentially, we have to forecast whether the city will fall to Russian forces and be recognized as such by a major... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGluGQJ3_kFtIHKjzlBv_-AOIT-RHBaGVFoGjD3woqYOef2obH8zWgJGExv_xdPKpx1VvTlTwe_qaBUGfAdvmJHJQ06OY4m5NcemXydM_TWQ3UOEYrWobyN5Yn-0w4gw2qTKC-52ZwPGDGTnOIFEGBZm9DEDm3rxOIWOKAQCN1tfb2sHmyEltDM5qVBgHQ0spWqSyCoI8o6A3fh-tp7jg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.27 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,276 | 3,891 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 | -0.314711 |
Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine be publicly announced by the governments of both nations on or before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or their designated official representatives, publicly announce a formal, bilateral ceasefire to end the current hostilities on or before March 15, 2026. This must be reported by major international news outlets such as Reuters, AP, or the BBC. A ... | null | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2d0ce32d-6472-4ea4-aebc-6aa478138a42 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine agrees to peace proposal, with only \"minor details\" to settle, official says, but no word from Russia (published on 2025-11-26 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A U.S. official told CBS News that Ukraine has agreed ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be publicly announced by both governments on or before March 15, 2026. Today date is Dec 27, 2025, so we have about 2.5 months left (from Dec 27, 2025 to Mar 15, 2026). Actually there are abou... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEhweSI5vFlE9ZktzMC64ruC7CKhO7K9gNEniZFLRl1K8keQSn9-ufaL-YEkvNlQ5zlPda6FHVoUTGoHhV-ayXdeVK0CtwpZHE9rGdsNpSpFj3mY-Z5c8h0gOax4qSpADdcG-eqeH6pSulzyx5dM7_38IfY-ExabX0sDDe5WM4HZAIXTdBC8NM3jTI3RTUhHua10sOGIrZqirGfzBc=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,266 | 1,752 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | -0.061875 |
Will the existing State of Emergency declared by Governor Kathy Hochul for New York remain in effect through January 3, 2026? | 2026-01-04T00:00:00 | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the State of Emergency declared on or around December 26-27, 2025, by Governor Kathy Hochul (or a subsequent extension of that specific declaration) is still active at any point on January 3, 2026. If the emergency declaration is rescinded or expires without renewal before 12:00 AM on Ja... | null | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-03T00:00:00 | cdc10f56-dcf7-4166-a2d6-ab0cb1de2ecd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Governor Hochul declares State of Emergency as winter storm slams New York, Southern Tier (published on 2025-12-26 by wbng.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a State of Emergency on Friday, Dec. 26 for Broome, ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability that the State of Emergency declared on Dec 26 2025 (by Gov. Kathy Hochul) will still be in effect on Jan 3 2026. Context: Several news articles about the State of Emergency due to a winter storm. None mention expiration date, but typical emergency declarat... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEtVkQiQsy6giDcf5980FIz2cEJI4eMkbbwUkis583uatIUfEAtvJspkH8vTv1oxKraVV9R76f_XpSoArM5XIEhC4Oed1ECNbrq385Or-8UK3EeQ9XgX7StKpsXJlMG42_tgvEe98Uonut9Pg0Doi19y3rj6e0g0pbDB2LHx6INylSetZ53Pns4ZPPAtzSkmN9LcyJFhJtHJiYUlI1ikT0BDW4mfU8nIGHjD51BTICaUNNUmDboTX8=, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,199 | 2,574 | null | -1.714798 | 0.6724 | -1.714798 |
Will a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine be signed or officially announced by their respective governments on or before March 27, 2026? | 2026-03-27T00:00:00 | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or their authorized representatives, sign a formal ceasefire or peace agreement, or issue a joint official statement confirming such an agreement has been reached to end active hostilities, between December 27, 2025, and March 27, 2026. This must ... | null | 2025-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-27T00:00:00 | 1e25db32-5ebd-4f6b-b9ad-6fe8841325ce | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine's Zelenskyy says a revised peace plan will be shared with U.S. on Tuesday (published on 2025-12-08 by cbc.ca) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukraine's Zelenskyy says a revised 20-point peace plan will be shared with the U.S. on Tu... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability forecast that a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be signed or officially announced (as defined) on or before March 27, 2026. The close date is 2026-03-27. Today's date is 2025-12-27. So the forecast horizon ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFIGUawFOFkuKwCqFKROqiVzS796z73offHebPhMjb1GcvxMGbHHHStR6AxnhyzBbwHZ4wnQrhVN6zIeOeROfTbNXHN-5fuVVsC_NuiQcq9G1cR3FRcSeFvql4a0421vqnjvshHn4d772g9eJ0J_Ppr1yeRnpf7IzhVF0k92uMSS2Dg67kq7P6DrhpKajN3h3L5ZvA9PtF4btGW9hCrfZAoBdgmL5c=, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,028 | 2,402 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will Syrian security forces or the transitional government publicly announce the arrest of at least one suspect specifically linked to the December 2025 Homs mosque bombing before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an official spokesperson for the Syrian security forces, Ministry of Interior, or the transitional government announces that one or more individuals have been taken into custody for direct involvement in the bombing at the Alawite mosque in Homs described in the report. The announcement ... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-12T00:00:00 | 15317569-18e1-4ff2-895e-878d72894987 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Explosion at mosque in Syria's Homs kills 8, wounds 18 (published on 2025-12-26 by middleeastmonitor.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: An explosion during Friday prayers at the Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib Mosque in Homs' Wadi al-Dhahab neigh... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated forecast probability that Syrian security forces or transitional government will publicly announce the arrest of at least one suspect linked to Dec 2025 Homs mosque bombing before March 1, 2026. Need to reason about context, background knowledge, political si... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3qTkyTNHYYMHJaoYxVWYOXHJXXyxAIP4F-Vp4vAyCyZIj2IbHOG-EnVgGHhxeuIxeRbmhkDhc6-XjeqYOdsIxJojSD1eXGdemxtv3iIZSsymQtFgDKmZTcWC9_Ms26MXnHEcZmXkedas3YKc=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEIjPde88FSZmQvDQs8UBssgfIpZvvsVXTF... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,242 | 2,582 | null | -2.040221 | 0.7569 | -2.040221 |
Will a formal ceasefire or 'war freeze' agreement between Ukraine and Russia be publicly announced before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal, written agreement to freeze current front lines or establish a general ceasefire is publicly announced by the governments of Russia and Ukraine, or by a meadiator (such as the United States) with confirmation from the combatants. The agreement must include a specific date for t... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 00823c03-bd9f-4e20-89f1-79d3ca13cb0a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 24, 2025 (published on 2025-12-24 by understandingwar.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zelensky released a new US–Ukraine–Europe 20-point peace plan on Dec. 23, reportedly to be presented... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that a formal ceasefire/war freeze agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be publicly announced before March 1, 2026 (i.e., within about 14 months from today Dec 28 2025). The resolution requires that a formal, written agreement to freeze front ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG4oOar1IvuPgyZBlZWDDrenNm81wZbR2EGANYhfgYzwlCgVG5DUwmBV7X2JH2zFxVajE8t5V-kMWCwbEsfP6U9w4WcfraWVn2hNqRz3n3GIyf8e068kd2TM9J0N9IuNCCgV8F8TlP1UephmmV2Io7sYxleHQcllxirclfRXqjpfIn53TPUszaizeVP06PavrA5U_9hnDNmX8I=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/gro... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,079 | 1,937 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will the Syrian Ministry of Interior or state news agency SANA announce the capture or death of any suspects for the December 26, 2025, Homs mosque bombing by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by January 31, 2026, the Syrian government officially identifies and announces that at least one individual suspected of carrying out or planning the December 26, 2025 bombing of the Alawite mosque in Homs has been arrested, detained, or killed in a security operation. The announcemen... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-12T00:00:00 | 0e724cff-768f-48e8-8cd2-104b278c0e71 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Deadly blast hits Syrian mosque, kills eight (published on 2025-12-26 by punchng.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: An explosion struck the Imam Ali Bin Abi Talib Mosque in Homs' Wadi al-Dahab neighborhood during Friday prayers, killing ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for whether the Syrian Ministry of Interior or SANA will announce capture or death of any suspects for the Dec 26, 2025 Homs mosque bombing by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context: articles about the bombing. These all are from Dec 26, 2025 (same day). T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGSxPVPwb6wjua_4RcwpC5PZ4c6jWcLiR5z4roVbUk1DkfFw2hfogSGJ39efUZqPiqq3KD0sT_3nh2SHSna0wE3sk9fRsI6XUAoTMQrusUNeTnKqj8_W9ZaMaZrTLaWKA2hLrTBnLYmiC3QBkqNxZtx-bGjixMD07_JWhhOHt03knfUbFmS6koMZd552IG5PAdXwF4fLydTqksRAAClH6GI, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | true | 2 | null | 0.32 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,048 | 2,722 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | -1.139434 |
Will the United States government publicly announce a new, specific commitment to provide long-term security guarantees for Ukraine before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 28, 2025, and February 1, 2026, the President of the United States or the U.S. State Department makes an official announcement or signs a bilateral agreement establishing a specific mechanism for sustained military or security support for Ukraine beyond existing aid pac... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | a8a4dceb-7aed-49a0-bd35-f048e2a6c25a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine and Allies Agree on Security Guarantee for Peace Proposal (published on 2025-12-15 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The article says the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe agreed on a NATO-like security guarantee for Ukraine'... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated probability that the United States government will publicly announce a new, specific commitment to provide long-term security guarantees for Ukraine before Feb 1, 2026 (i.e., between Dec 28, 2025 and Feb 1, 2026). We need to assess based on given context... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGlhGiGdcIITFv-UQ8d4M9a23CFFlTH1ZWa4V8Ch5V_ZxieOigs2pn9JPen1FxEEOvHfQUn6OfLeaQu5BwZqFWw0qh2Tza1Ej08qNzfa-1NqrNr4XLcdFOy4cCPaOiLubm6wDnx4achskwKRj_GGCYN, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEoYKMGGiJM_EM4Fx-Sh-nJlePpkdaw... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,124 | 2,350 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will the United States and Ukraine sign a bilateral security agreement or treaty between December 28, 2025, and February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an official document titled as a 'bilateral security agreement,' 'security treaty,' or 'security guarantee pact' is signed by representatives of the United States and Ukraine during the specified period. This must be confirmed by a White House press release, the U.S. State Department, or... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 3d6f52ae-7af5-4199-8b79-28be079b3707 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelenskyy Unveils 20-Point Peace Plan With Security Guarantees And EU Path For Ukraine (published on 2025-12-24 by rferl.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled a US-brokered draft 20-point pea... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated forecast for the probability that the United States and Ukraine will sign a bilateral security agreement or treaty between Dec 28, 2025 and Feb 1, 6/2026. We have the context: numerous news articles from Dec 11 to Dec 26, 2025 describing ongoing negotia... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEI18_lVDobKcjKCbIM_CljBEvEzoN3VrjEVNMD-YUCq3wPC3lhiSe5_ogQi-NZ_DAbHKVUOVXVK3xGm29DaZ7PGuDvi67RiZaflw1TbtPd3jRbD1QGjXPq6ei6P217YPRx3ZVnvmXQfoOlxWXiLjTa6Zuf5F9GDQ_6-IJ35PVQAxzFRyctghHdcXkXqz-BKbRNrFyvi2y0O0c__3UImTJVA5o18F8q-g==, https://vertexaisearch.... | true | 2 | null | 0.26 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,284 | 2,740 | null | -0.301105 | 0.0676 | -0.301105 |
Will the Syrian transitional government or its Ministry of Interior announce the arrest of at least one suspect specifically linked to the Homs mosque bombing of December 26, 2025, before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, between December 28, 2025, and 11:59 PM UTC on February 1, 2026, the Syrian transitional government authorities, Ministry of Interior, or state media (SANA) publicly announce that one or more individuals have been taken into custody for direct involvement in the bombing at the Alawite ... | null | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-12T00:00:00 | c51842ba-ad10-4288-8a96-55c33e69be5b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Deadly blast hits mosque in Alawite area of Syria's Homs (published on 2025-12-26 by al-monitor.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: An explosion killed at least eight worshippers during Friday prayers at the Imam Ali Bin Abi Talib Mosque ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast probability that the Syrian transitional government or its Ministry of Interior will announce the arrest of at least one suspect specifically linked to the Homs mosque bombing of Dec 26, 2025 before Feb 1, 2026.
We have context: a series of news ar... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEh6jce2XzPd91F61kd9MUqH4af9p9C79x_EDM7uFJnA5nUs3z_4Z-GjMtLYJ2OOzMaQ6d-KTjiBP2EjwIkQxC6XBeoqlLbuQoezRcdxZOSmxMo3T7fk2OyxvSeFdqjdlqZc_OddAUkGwFrKlEw7KJfGw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGRkXxQbTXKDwfdkhipf9a-DDa-... | true | 2 | null | 0.28 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,067 | 2,545 | null | -1.272966 | 0.5184 | -1.272966 |
Will the rial (IRR) reach a new all-time low exchange rate against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on the open market before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before April 1, 2026, the Iranian rial (IRR) is traded at an exchange rate higher (weaker) than 1,000,000 rials per 1 U.S. dollar on the open market (Bonbast or equivalent tracking sites for the 'free market' rate). This reflects the 'tremendous inflation' and economic 'bust' m... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | d81a576a-36d9-495f-9e1d-848016ee46af | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran's government budget reveals tough road ahead as currency hits new low (published on 2025-12-26 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Iran's rial hit a new all-time low versus the U.S. dollar, with about 1.36 million rials ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that the Iranian rial (IRR) will reach a new all-time low exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (higher than 1,000,000 rials per USD) on the open market before April 1, 2026.
We have today's date 2025-12-29. We need to evaluate the probability over the ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFeZLAGrCbXJWeX5FHfBk9JwoSXSLEKbgeAX42XpYpG35feC6v_Gd7_8kc61Nd5ygujb6H9vTCh7l-wlc_vd6OXY_mgDVjpnwZJKsWUQSOrjSyvTlRKAPxUjN8YlUgeDFPflUTE7s0ewTUxHi8MmPEb6JbmRSJRL0iQyYfh9xaGFdZTtw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH5... | true | 2 | null | 0.98 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,271 | 3,587 | null | -0.020203 | 0.0004 | -0.020203 |
Will at least one of the primary suspects, Mahesh Soni or Deepali Soni, be granted bail by a court in the Kalpana Soni murder case before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a court in Maharashtra, India, issues a bail order for either Mahesh Soni or Deepali Soni in relation to the murder of Kalpana Soni (Virar case) at any time before March 1, 2026. If both remain in judicial or police custody without being granted bail through February 28, 2026, the quest... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 81c66827-81ef-4b29-939d-8237a028986c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"search_query": "Kalpana Soni murder case bail Mahesh Soni; Kalpana Soni murder case bail Deepali Soni; Kalpana Soni murder case next hearing date bail; Mahesh Soni Deepali Soni Kalpana Soni case court granted bail; Kalpana Soni murder case charg... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast that at least one of the primary suspects Mahesh Soni or Deepali Soni will be granted bail by a court in Maharashtra, India, before March 1, 2026, given information up to Dec 29, 2025 and possibly news articles (none provided explicitly). We have to... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwVATF5Lb1_efou3mb-2_nvb1JtfxaT5r1Z-4ada-hz_GZFIMLJ6wPBAba4XZs6BoP_ewhii0SxqnkAh1hsSLw_LElwMcG0643-TBuF0kSETe5i0k3KMPtuaYkiVsvVq4Pyf0yAZrP3-tf3AxqErOezjDU9-m0rTrxluBXzlsjSbbNRVmJPaSB6Bx3-MQE1xiQNpdwrBQ54Yp-cqxBkvyyDYNvUMj_PTL_4sZQ2rSGIrzrQvIaml28cA0LQ... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 396 | 1,642 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC) file a formal affidavit regarding the status of Professional Grazing Reserved (PGR) and Village Grazing Reserved (VGR) land with the Gauhati High Court on or before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-16T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC) submits a legal affidavit to the Gauhati High Court concerning the PGR/VGR land case mentioned by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, as confirmed by court records, official government statements, or reporting from major outlets like The Hindu,... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-01-05T00:00:00 | 17926e77-215b-4af5-b299-d2f22b387a18 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Tripartite meet paves way for KAAC affidavit in HC on eviction by Jan 5 (published on 2025-12-26 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Guwahati: After a tripartite meeting, Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC) ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that the KAAC will file a formal affidavit regarding the status of PGR and VGR land with the Gauhati High Court on or before Jan 15, 2026, given info up to Dec 29, 2025.
We must analyze context, relevant evidence, uncertainties, timeline, feasibil... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG71gaRSoQwpyThTtv59iK96EsKGCC1kQXfRvSddyguZxfw7nuCsPhkvbonq6tsA05VDRQ1Qevuw6OyC7D6lcudx4xz5TrMrfg_NqNqCZw16fonRxWIM57U8tCREawMK-USvAm_pgQDB3GTLYivTn_9a5rfC8Iuwx7RUkUK2Rtjhn6DInsLpFxriaxG2y6aKObDOf6SbQ-iP0U7yBzBUnnT4Q9xQhbv3xYDCUqAZ6jXZ6BpGSlQ385rutBei... | true | 2 | null | 0.65 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,251 | 2,999 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | -0.430783 |
Will Ukraine and Russia enter into a continuous ceasefire lasting at least 72 hours by February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a bilateral or multilateral agreement results in a cessation of active hostilities between the regular armed forces of Ukraine and the Russian Federation that persists for a minimum of 72 consecutive hours at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on February 28, 2026. This ceasefire must be conf... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | d8dce16b-f765-43a1-bf4d-1319f6d3352d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russia says talks on US peace plan for Ukraine 'are proceeding constructively' (published on 2025-12-22 by kslnewsradio.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Russia says U.S.-brokered peace talks to end Ukraine's war are progressing \"const... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that Ukraine and Russia will enter into a continuous ceasefire lasting at least 72 hours by Feb 28, 2026. The context includes news articles up to Dec 2025. We need to assess the likelihood that such a ceasefire will happen in next ~2 months (Jan-F... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHfnEMqpMXTxTAql4ko2FGUwVWPviwlSBMGpdWRu2lGHZdbdUSBCkKN4Dq8KgUuDeJ50XXB0UPrQJ2td9Ah1LN4FmqhXwUReBC9cD9_OV3lBmDWZ0_CIfvjk_pI_30RHlKzg3i9T0EKwjLIq0YST4XE-seeLKdAuDlWf3TQOOxS67Hi6g7IYJkPY2OIAna6pi9xnLCnJb4CE1IceuOzzBdp98qtOdOPzJHJIZ3QEglV-vprL7vuM9xklasw1... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,204 | 3,084 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will the Uttar Pradesh Police or Rampur district authorities publicly confirm the arrest of the truck driver involved in the December 29, 2025 collision at Pahadi Gate before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if, by 11:59 PM IST on February 1, 2026, the Uttar Pradesh Police, Rampur District Police, or a major Indian news outlet (e.g., Times of India, NDTV, Indian Express) reports that the driver of the truck involved in the crash that killed Firasat on December 29, 2025, has been taken into cus... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 50f9dfab-e99d-4eaf-8389-f6a6c9a8870b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Uttar Pradesh Police confirm arrest truck driver Pahadi Gate collision December 29 2025; Rampur district authorities confirm arrest truck driver Pahadi Gate collision; Pahadi Gate collision December 29 2025 truck driver arrested ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for the event: "Will the Uttar Pradesh Police or Rampur district authorities publicly confirm the arrest of the truck driver involved in the December 29, 2025 collision at Pahadi Gate before February 1, 2026?"
We need to consider all known info: T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEWr15lfwshzp5Yrh22XDmiedHP1Y7Wjojjr-P41NF-YPme3rL155t4GmjS3EWWFV1LbB3Ma-aSu9JC_-FQn-LHKFLd0rmgsiw8QaqUTrS-_zE9gea5Dwgwy-9xrDRMugv8Lk4QL-ST5VHCw3OoBTIgyqblRulla1cyOaI3DX5MyYC6uDXVion1m1UXU4QrXwkAmWOxSVPN1kBlZloObADsiUUGhfU-9nik2O43D7nexfKYTzL6slq48TQVF... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 416 | 3,418 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will Nida Allam win the Democratic primary election for a U.S. House of Representatives seat in North Carolina in 2026? | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Nida Allam is declared the winner of a 2026 Democratic primary race for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina by the Associated Press or the North Carolina State Board of Elections. The question resolves to 'No' if she loses the primary, fails to file for candid... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-04T00:00:00 | 9e6640d6-75cb-4013-91a9-4a39e8fb11ab | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Democrat Nida Allam brings major progressive backers to challenge incumbent US Rep. Foushee (published on 2025-12-11 by ncnewsline.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam is challenging incumbent U.S. Rep... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a forecast probability that Nida Allam will win the Democratic primary election for U.S. House seat (NC-04). The timeframe: as of Dec 29, 2025 (today), we have context that she declared candidacy, filed, and has strong progressive endorsements. The incumbent is Rep. Vale... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGMyEdC27VQf16-udjo-g_j8ZZQDl1-Vx-lLosJ_A42Rcz8xLAhSVlvp9NS25IL1ZaOjpzAvbXsqskxO4qXFiUFyEGcn1iB1a6kqLuWUlfYCCGwOpnKpXdKR7WONHBnZUrFFvg0toNM2MKx-f5_WK9IC0WfhA3w, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEBA_ESpvlW-pxvevJl2pSJ... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,325 | 1,888 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC) initiate a physical eviction drive or begin the fencing of the 8,000 bighas of VGR-PGR land in Kheroni by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-16T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public announcement or news report (e.g., from PTI, The Assam Tribune, or official KAAC/State Government channels) confirming that physical fencing work has commenced or a formal eviction drive against encroachers on the specified 8,000 bighas in the Kheroni area has begun on ... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 8e2cd790-8a22-4742-b36b-95856f844e81 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Karbi Anglong Council To Cancel All Trade Licences; Carry Out Fencing On 8000 bigha of VGR–PGR Land:... (published on 2025-12-27 by deccanchronicle.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma said a tripartite meeting... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a forecast probability that by Feb 15 2026 (close date Feb 16) the KAAC will initiate a physical eviction drive or begin fencing of the 8,000 bighas of VGR-PGR land in Kheroni, as measured by a public announcement or news report confirming that physical fencing work has ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEcnmz6LI6G9Zlkt-XoYq2oMzHFZEzHeFn6C5pzVeOOBDxHheoZTZktp3-rrBEdN8L0Hu4pHFsKII0Nxfvsa8YiOOe4MA1zgKtp11SRnSd6L2CRdVjjOcSvdamtWbMy4WR8UpvzSpuBxsNNxFBt3QNwXB--AsCdFzOIYdkSs9zayLDW0sqRagqQRBXet-jP0BHMYGRWyDleMSZmDQHxpMj_GNjpO-Wv, https://vertexaisearch.clou... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,321 | 1,809 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the French National Assembly pass a new bill or an amendment specifically aimed at increasing permanent police presence or surveillance technology on the Paris Metro before May 1, 2026? | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 29, 2025, and May 1, 2026, the French National Assembly (Assemblée nationale) votes to pass a legislative text (bill or amendment) that explicitly mandates an increase in law enforcement staffing or surveillance infrastructure (such as AI-powered CCTV) within the Pari... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | ab103a65-1052-4252-b053-10398a734c31 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "France National Assembly bill police presence metro Paris amendment; Paris Metro surveillance technology National Assembly amendment; Assemblée nationale \"métro\" \"police\" proposition de loi; RATP security measures bill amendm... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that French National Assembly passes a new bill or amendment specifically aimed at increasing permanent police presence or surveillance technology on the Paris Metro before May 1, 2026 (i.e., within about 4 months from Dec 29 2025). We need to produce a prob... | null | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 395 | 1,359 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | -0.061875 |
Will the Uttar Pradesh Madhyamik Shiksha Parishad (UPMSP) or the Uttar Pradesh Department of Education issue a formal statewide advisory or mandate to schools regarding student mental health counseling before March 20, 2026? | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 29, 2025, and March 20, 2026, the Uttar Pradesh Madhyamik Shiksha Parishad (UPMSP/U.P. Board) or the State Department of Secondary Education publishes a formal government order (GO), circular, or advisory directed at all affiliated schools in the state that specifically... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-20T00:00:00 | 900f16e6-09a8-45af-9415-a7f1caf48389 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
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"search_query": "UPMSP mental health counseling advisory circular; Uttar Pradesh Department of Education student mental health counselling mandate; UPMSP notification guidance counseling services students; Uttar Pradesh school education mental he... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability that Uttar Pradesh Madhyamik Shiksha Parishad (UPMSP) or the Uttar Pradesh Department of Education will issue a formal statewide advisory/mandate about student mental health counseling before March 20, 2026 (i.e., within about 2.5 months from Dec 29 2025 to... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHTynWCN-4gvkn_ecWqigyjlu0dYQa8jBXVM9kgnceGgqoZJ8o4l-y0A6J8QnqNeiDVP2FhQRBaLO7leRhQ-NebF6D-5TPpR-ZbZNvs3xIME24Y5_IvKb7in0-ok5ncE1CVFufz8tWQ0tTIowkrfrBOAG9wLHtg_F3LOPoouxF7-m3YG1UYucumH6SDs3r5JwmLjdZC8b6f6fXuIxSpEuXiY-lYfhSEfzuDGehlu0jLzGKDdD8=, https:/... | true | 2 | null | 0.17 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 454 | 2,154 | null | -0.18633 | 0.0289 | -0.18633 |
Will the Andhra Pradesh Transport Department announce the location or operational timeline for at least three new automated driving test centers before March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 30, 2025, and March 31, 2026, the Government of Andhra Pradesh or the Transport Department makes an official announcement (via press release, official social media, or government portal) specifying the locations or commencement dates for at least three new automated d... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-03T00:00:00 | 50f65995-2eb9-4b0a-a632-a5c43a3a1a95 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] AP EAMCET Seat Allotment 2026 - Link, Allotment Letter (published on 2025-12-23 by engineering.careers360.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: AP EAMCET 2026 seat allotment (MPC) will be released by APSCHE in July 2026. Candidates can chec... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to generate a calibrated probability that the Andhra Pradesh Transport Department (AP Transport Department) will announce location or operational timeline for at least three new automated driving test centers (ADTCs) before March 31, 2026. The context: we have only two news article... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEwjfrudBbAQaUj6ecTBOooAW16Je4k7ztf42ITDvaYqdaafH0wk4c9fdYwNTKjfCOdXhpTfmNv09E6Iapq0Xm_5am2VqH_g8H3_NfB-lRMDsODrCUucabd0y9NMXmYj9-0HsQdsEcyaMlHBUieiGe7v53uIw2-0h3RlfY23uz4-Wg-VNL_wPW9zPwJi7HSBD7hZpiicvl4CgIwBHaCyPDfpHocESPRAdbU4V-x6VPQ1XZT9bXRrcfeovxsB... | true | 2 | null | 0.06 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 758 | 1,371 | null | -2.813411 | 0.8836 | -2.813411 |
Will the South Central Railway zone announce the suspension or disciplinary removal of at least two railway officials directly linked to maintenance or safety oversight for the Tatanagar–Ernakulam Express by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the South Central Railway (SCR) or the Ministry of Railways officially announces the suspension, transfer pending inquiry, or termination of at least two officials (such as station masters, section engineers, or safety inspectors) specifically citing negligence or lapses related to the ... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 44a95977-4c8a-4992-b51a-66b1ab5cb65d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Why Loco Pilots Can't Post Cab Videos on Social Media: South Central Railway's New Safety Directive Explained (published on 2025-11-30 by en.themooknayak.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: South Central Railway has issued an advisory ban... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to give calibrated probability that SCR will announce suspension or disciplinary removal of at least two railway officials directly linked to maintenance/safety oversight for Tatanagar–Ernakulam Express fire (Train No. 18189) by March 1, 2026.
We have context: Only article [1] abo... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHuCKihFOYicYag7x9d_cEFCcghaiHiPf6GqOqep7Hje0cJlBjabbORaQa-KOApBOTzuN_LUB4-1YnWnmpPOR8WS7n-HIgpWssDO31H8bARvZQ5h3epKeeOCRRShm30g7qARSB0n_p3TGnoWjoRlDdpcoMdZNrCIgMBReKNbHU-3Gl9-pQmhsNS2d5IuDwoT1J5qUqnXl8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | true | 2 | null | 0.11 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 597 | 1,747 | null | -0.116534 | 0.0121 | -0.116534 |
Will the Child Welfare Committee (CWC) in Odisha issue a formal order placing the surviving child of the Majhi family into a state-run shelter or long-term institutional care before February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Child Welfare Committee (CWC) or the District Child Protection Unit (DCPU) of Deogarh or Angul district issues a formal directive transferring the child from the custody of his grandparents to a state-run child care institution (CCI) for long-term care, as reported by reputable sourc... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-23T00:00:00 | 13469c2d-2312-4a3c-b048-d052e7ade209 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"search_query": "Odisha Majhi family Child Welfare Committee order shelter; Odisha CWC institutional care long-term placement surviving child Majhi; Odisha Child Welfare Committee Majhi family hearing date interim direction; Child Welfare Committ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for the event: "Will the Child Welfare Committee (CWC) in Odisha issue a formal order placing the surviving child of the Majhi family into a state-run shelter or long-term institutional care before February 28, 2026?"
We have a date today: Decembe... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQECmQWETTvr2sZrNEnQm6hnaupbKYpDsB_fgd59yjuPbbbzo7CEzrWcoyDKq1rdywLcCexq0tgoJ-7V2kxnb79A4vGjSN3NI7yEoEBfnymhu79wDVA9JWFjXn44fP0oH0g84Q==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEZ6hUnoucu0j20feQOIfTdQlOB-011qg2En6ieBomcPt0Q... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 411 | 1,095 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the Rampur district administration or the Uttar Pradesh Public Works Department announce the installation of new traffic signals or speed breakers at the Pahadi Gate crossing by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if an official government announcement or a report by a major Indian news outlet confirms that the local administration has approved or initiated the installation of new physical traffic calming measures (specifically traffic lights or speed breakers) at the Pahadi Gate crossing in Rampur ... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | b0b47096-6e01-4477-b1fe-40978b114dca | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"search_query": "Rampur district administration traffic signals Pahadi Gate crossing; Uttar Pradesh PWD speed breakers Pahadi Gate crossing Rampur; \"Pahadi Gate\" crossing traffic signal installation; Rampur traffic safety speed breakers announc... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that by Mar 15 2026, the Rampur district administration or the Uttar Pradesh Public Works Department will announce the installation of new traffic signals or speed breakers at the Pahadi Gate crossing, given the context. However, the context prov... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEQMEOGCMb0tP8iuWqffy-YIQFkmOVecf6EQZ7CVPjX_m5T6bi8sGrT8Glx1WrF0j7copOEhjkfyzK6W9YxBpJnJJ3TLHN82ScjJWstE9K6PQY2420zl_aapdGFbKmhrgm-3vnzHC45YqLp5cBeQo8vIxnEUKPwg5b7E41JhkDRksRCxzZQfeVWSlC9olY01QkBPKt7iIN1zqzEL4s9lIsyL3aADNZL4NfeeD0D6BYv6XjUW236o-BTLbnH7... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 396 | 1,251 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the Indian Ministry of Railways or the Commission of Railway Safety issue a nationwide safety directive or set of instructions specifically regarding fire-prevention protocols for power cars or pantry cars on long-distance trains by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 30, 2025, and February 15, 2026, the Indian Ministry of Railways (Railway Board) or the Commission of Railway Safety issues a formal circular, safety order, or directive (such as those often titled 'Safety Drive' or 'General Instructions') mandated for all railway zones... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 3f574d38-4629-4820-936f-5047992968a9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Indian Railways: ATMs to be Available on These Trains Passing Through Bihar (published on 2025-12-02 by patrika.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Indian Railways will install ATMs on selected moving trains, to address passengers' cash n... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indian Ministry of Railways or Commission of Railway Safety will issue a nationwide safety directive specifically regarding fire-prevention protocols for power cars or pantry cars on long-distance trains between Dec 30 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
We have con... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE2dvMH9T6j72R7GuvrNeFiwSaPy0_s39E7hmTc7WM_aZEPQV3iZZHOl7e0EREmZTMAxWbq08F5bW6x9y7JcQbB56qyzzRB3LE6Y1NI8_YZHO0wD_1m2roJJMt4NDluUBaYVT8Uct7kXl1UnXcmGljItHTCANuUQBA1PpxN2ehaekUkt9NuqiiOvwPbqNIMNITZy-QUxVLRAf_087x86pZGhp1K00Oojpp6C9TxKgKLgI6YUJp-23VYJwubG... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 789 | 1,713 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will Nida Allam win the Democratic primary election for a U.S. House of Representatives seat in North Carolina in 2026? | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Nida Allam is declared the winner of a 2026 Democratic primary race for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina by the Associated Press or the North Carolina State Board of Elections. The question resolves to 'No' if she loses the primary, fails to file for candid... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-03T00:00:00 | 7c40357c-095d-4ede-981a-6a662d9dfaa6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Democrat Nida Allam brings major progressive backers to challenge incumbent US Rep. Foushee (published on 2025-12-11 by ncnewsline.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam is challenging incumbent U.S. Rep... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability estimate that Nida Allam will win the Democratic primary election for a U.S. House seat (NC-4) in 2026. We have to consider all available evidence up to 2025-12-29 (today). The question: "Will Nida Allam win the Democratic primary election for a U.S. House ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFX9BSYHXdk-CbpPS5EJ_OXK1XFH35q5l6nIdXwapip5-afYa3xD5QUjUP_2_W1sVBWL_Ixno1IrLRmmzoO_yjIedI00zup9e_wvQt1L6K81TN9gpkEGAJAkN5QMaSSCfBUbfqBT2dHu4Ae_DAwaWLWas4j_L3YyfqpGVOzGxDiKw-HTruJ9tNJ9EfoQxkzx3SEVNZaqlm5uPN-vN-R_r7v32Mnj3nXkDAH2PZpGZQ_7PaLanexRaDRTE-TP... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,313 | 3,714 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the United States or Israel conduct a publicly acknowledged kinetic military strike within the borders of Iran before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between the current date and 23:59 UTC on March 15, 2026, the government of the United States or the government of Israel officially acknowledges carrying out a kinetic military strike (including but not limited to airstrikes, cruise missile launches, or drone attacks) on targets loc... | null | 2025-12-29T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | dcc00b7e-c770-4a38-9190-d69f7fb4ff3b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Netanyahu plans to brief Trump on possible new Iran strikes (published on 2025-12-20 by nbcnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Israeli officials fear Iran is reconstituting ballistic-missile production and rebuilding nuclear-enrichme... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to evaluate the probability that the United States or Israel will conduct a publicly acknowledged kinetic military strike within Iran's borders before March 15, 2026. Must be an official acknowledgement from top officials (White House, DoD, Israeli PM Office, IDF). The current date... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQErvZWQYaQ3AJ6XB7594WvM8aT3BUTR_ZRQ-ZyVzysWY7WcfKQcDLzXUwJHD-48J4OZdv7buFfN1snASA-xTJmyJ4kO9Kh0YAxjGoM69wSEe2bM7cMUu2Eyp_pVA2_oGwayL-Ap8Wtxlrqqffq66XilgmjRTD1-LM6ZbpkQFRNO9VIoC-HbUPbRu-SyA5p9GE51UQhIRfxN_jZ3DtKUSiF-Pt_SfMzm7TMjRvFqkUKjlpqPcknuJvAMgg==,... | true | 2 | null | 0.007 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,117 | 3,518 | null | -4.961845 | 0.986049 | -4.961845 |
Will the Government of Karnataka publicly announce a state grant or financial endowment to the National Academy of Visual Arts (NAVA) by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a government official or official department of the State of Karnataka (such as the Department of Kannada and Culture) formally announces a monetary grant or the establishment of a financial endowment specifically for the National Academy of Visual Arts (NAVA), based in Dharwad, on or... | null | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 03e8cec5-cbf3-4f7d-8052-9f62110013b9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
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"search_query": "Karnataka government grant NAVA National Academy of Visual Arts; National Academy of Visual Arts NAVA Karnataka state grant endowment; Karnataka budget 2025 2026 grant NAVA visual arts academy; Karnataka Higher Education Departme... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Provide a probability that Karnataka government will publicly announce a state grant or financial endowment to the National Academy of Visual Arts (NAVA) by March 1, 2026 (approx 2 months from current date of Dec 30 2025). The context includes "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFsCqtpm23CKexsgeFw3MRsEq-XcoRgJzCdszHymq1oZ2L5pBN3DUZRWqv6HJ0V2ht-Z33X8fSKeEaIpOjJLfbxr2MPjn3ZIHgmfWD6i2-NiKcRqJXmna0OI_HspYj9SJVHiKWohfqG_H9fnAiGYfQ_MyIVRTl6ow6-rSZvGLzKx3AlCVUXajOmsnCk9eVck6dV8y2hplOMod_3zUyBCWlQC_etzWxV8h9C0sXdkUDWCHfqXvt_tSknXw== | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 420 | 1,248 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 | -0.051293 |
Will the Union Ministry of Rural Development formally suspend or block the release of funds to the Punjab state government for rural employment schemes before March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 30, 2025, and March 31, 2026, the Union Rural Development Ministry issues an official order, press release, or statement confirmed by major Indian news outlets (e.g., The Hindu, PTI, Times of India) announcing a freeze, suspension, or withholding of central funds unde... | null | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 05bcc8bd-e43c-48cb-9b37-b1b4c49c70c8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Centre orders mandatory gram sabha on Dec 26, Punjab yet to make a decision (published on 2025-12-23 by indianexpress.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: The Union Ministry of Rural Development has told all states to hold gram sabhas o... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a forecast probability that the Union Ministry of Rural Development will formally suspend or block the release of funds to Punjab for rural employment schemes before March 31, 2026.
We need to assess the context given, and possibly other knowledge about Indian political... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEpg62vxny2K94twrfXCrRy8tpX9QtiNXwxMvMAsQV8UXh1iTofBepnZvrV-1EvJy8pb3kpPf1INjeeH4Dfad7FELiMMRCJwLQAMdiqVJ792_AzmRLz-I_ZImK71e0RwRwW6Ot_u5z8jfIpKyhG27Cuf0wwj2PmKiw91m2tdPuPwWbhTkuCMYXIg2DJSWJgcyzkCsntgC4u0sPO40lftSuIa7y9-Xlukit-9sRIpMfOI10PvERXZYLGC5BXb... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,525 | 3,877 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) issue an official directive or regulation specifically restricting or mandating changes to the implementation of *21# USSD code services before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between the seed date and March 15, 2026, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) publishes a formal directive, order, or regulation on its official website (trai.gov.in) that explicitly restricts, disables, or adds mandatory confirmation steps for the *21# USSD (Unstructured S... | null | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 9d51c99f-6733-4499-834f-5076e27ec9ec | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Kenya Railways Announces Changes to SGR Train Schedules (published on 2025-12-02 by kenyans.co.ke) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Kenya Railways will add an extra Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) passenger train on the Nairobi–Mombasa route f... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to output a probability of the event (TRAI issuing official directive/regulation specifically restricting/mandating changes to implementation of *21# USSD call-forwarding service before March 15, 2026).
We are given almost no context besides the news article about Kenya Railways (... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGtu7Pd1EXKbP4FH063gWY_DIPXftFAWZ8Gip7xRNmjnavK4mzNnSZCZnlHAjD7mnopgUwAZ3hIUg4exZYmf1C0SMbpWfhVsbcQptc3shazXXy2ou6q-sArCcLasD83VAaa2y0Z6Htc4gAB_qhixVaNdtT-7Wraux2RafZVQHnJeSP0O8oFjYdm43uW_Z5OMcuH4i-hh82GM8gPNS2QqMvxaj9b6A6WsuKD3WvWRcPvKzOjDjuSzu1LF49Qf... | true | 2 | null | 0.08 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 599 | 1,148 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | -0.083382 |
Will the Government of Karnataka issue an official order or memorandum freezing all new outsourcing of Group C and Group D cadre positions by March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Karnataka state government issues a Government Order (GO) or an official notification through the Department of Personnel and Administrative Reforms (DPAR) that explicitly implements a freeze or ban on the hiring of new outsourced personnel for Group C and Group D cadres, as recommen... | null | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 6480eb55-54fb-429e-a2c8-ade0016bb988 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Karnataka government order memorandum freeze outsourcing Group C Group D; Karnataka outsourcing Group C Group D freeze March 2026; Karnataka General Administration Department (GAD) outsourcing Group C Group D circular; Karnataka ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that Karnataka government will issue official order freezing all new outsourcing of Group C and Group D cadre positions by March 31, 2026.
We have: "TODAY'S DATE: 2025-12-30". The close date March 31, 2026, roughly 3 months away.
We must use context, which ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwhV9nNocH4weqbsPSTB411EBGF_Vh6GHGd8H8OkaPGcLSWCXc9fODmmO94fNMN5cJboLAUd4RB8tXV4VA_FZBesjxC_i2serDtiu-siCWgVCAAVqSW5NxdRkUq8PboRHAAtdYoM3TmFtZkNNhPZYjIxbDZ3ia7hOTUP-8k3boCygMlg5eLAQF-tEIc_7AwFW9Z2B7kBTvH5QNwVGsHUGWMrwZY0mceCP7f8LXyPwdyto8g_iD18-DHLFGx... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 410 | 918 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) initiate a formal inquiry or file a First Information Report (FIR) regarding alleged financial embezzlement in Punjab's MGNREGA implementation by May 1, 2026? | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) officially announces, or it is reliably reported by major national news outlets, that it has registered a preliminary inquiry or an FIR specifically targeting the 'financial embezzlement' or 'corruption' within the MGNREGA program in Punjab as... | null | 2025-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 3f1b04fe-42b8-4aa5-8dd7-4c20a8421d45 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Luthra Brothers Remanded To 5 Days Judicial Custody In Multi-Crore Fraud Case (published on 2025-12-22 by outlookindia.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Delhi High Court remanded businessman Harsh Luthra and his brother Gaurav Luthra to... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated forecast: probability that CBI will initiate a formal inquiry or file an FIR regarding alleged financial embezzlement in Punjab's MGNREGA implementation by May 1, 2026.
We have context up to Dec 30, 2025 [today]. The news articles provided include one about... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEGOQy-XHSU8Xx7KY4nHKNfoqt0NqLRrjcP6q8lGEqKr4Xd_FkbD8q_SJFo-xHM7JRmpoe_E0Dv4CFPJeKs02rXKIhqA_MDKG8EKnblNwbo2Xb9izBWj0HRHUdy4CaD0hf8womJWPdX12S7Pv6_zwsP5Ic-8ZUSZTzSSUbWNMTShP4HuIPhUgYgEQHU_6l8md-tYDWD-pzZ58GnB2XThKSk6kVG-BYH-1fmMp8YsqC43KRxAddjfw_jq0mDq... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,273 | 1,214 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability (formerly Oversight and Government Reform) release a final report by March 31, 2026, formally concluding its investigation into the alleged manipulation of crime data by the District of Columbia's Metropolitan Police Department? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal Final Report (not just an interim staff report) is published on the official website of the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability between January 1, 2026, and March 31, 2026, that presents the final findings of the investigation into the Metropolitan Police Depa... | null | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 324716e7-508e-44f1-81a9-caee65684429 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US House report accuses DC police chief of manipulating crime data (published on 2025-12-14 by nbcwashington.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform interim report criticizes Metropoli... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability forecast that by March 31, 2026, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Accountability will publish a final report concluding its investigation into alleged manipulation of crime data by DC Metropolitan Police Department (MPD). Currently (as o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFZ1TcN_CRcgjnAwwQm6zwU81L9b7aLvMQYuoW-O5hUVK-NA09R1D1ayolyvoHUN6848vyp3j2GxDKySgLEG6KHnWcgFBZKWUR4cvUHxuVFDilBV6LZ3xbc1UyYejrfjtKo9afxPOR6vmWV4uOLNqgnCACrxIsCg6y7kPafmdAf-JNfUdH62bzB_BIYgS3JToIkxetaFZSAcfgWU6QaoQryv1DkAZ6nDUS5-8jSd4ndKI7xLm01THOCOIhZE... | true | 2 | null | 0.36 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,153 | 4,142 | null | -0.446287 | 0.1296 | -0.446287 |
Will the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) resume at least partial child care block grant payments to the State of Minnesota by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between January 1, 2026, and April 1, 2026, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or its subordinate agencies (such as the Administration for Children and Families) publically confirms the release or disbursement of child care funds to Minnesota that were previously ... | null | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | a3b4283a-c6ed-4ed0-a91a-8c1055396cea | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration says it's freezing child care funds to Minnesota after series of fraud schemes (published on 2025-12-30 by apnews.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: The Trump administration froze Minnesota child care funds and deman... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that HHS will resume at least partial child care block grant payments to Minnesota by April 1, 2026. The question is about whether the freeze (imposed by Trump administration, freeze after fraud concerns) will be lifted between Jan 1, 2026 and Ap... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE3erHROTknJbPVcdnIlhyH2G9aCeOozpo6xNXRLuymsTEShEADyryOI3GBX1VmSikNKp9REJ4Q6PrarBK0jT5CYk8OdO0ZZ1ZlFM2FyDf43gAYXhnx4WOMNJ58IkIxLubvg1paA9MgZ7x-HXYur9hxQvvKrncuVMMXw5P_TO_OnxA=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF6Rlwq... | true | 2 | null | 0.12 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,514 | 1,349 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | -0.127833 |
Will the Godavari River Management Board (GRMB) formally direct the Andhra Pradesh government to stop the Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar Link Project expansion before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Godavari River Management Board (GRMB) issues an official order, board resolution, or formal directive to the state government of Andhra Pradesh specifically instructing them to cease or suspend all activities related to the Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar Link Project (PNLP) or its precur... | null | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | eb5c2c14-3623-4764-883a-019cd0ace95b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Interstate water war brews over Andhra's Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar link project (published on 2025-12-17 by telanganatoday.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Telangana has filed a Supreme Court writ petition seeking a stay on Andhra Prad... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Provide a calibrated forecast probability that the Godavari River Management Board (GRMB) will formally direct the Andhra Pradesh government to stop the Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar Link Project expansion before March 15, 2026.
Given context includes relevant news articles (two). K... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFEfdEjO71k0Ox4GXoImnDHYNgVP6I9MmM-pYnFPrV4f8WcUWDLo0GCA4XL5gBpaHyNXELMUSb9fV95oTVdfUx9iXc_XwpPn4ZclgDMvclpQGLEpsKSR81K_Qx1l-kvRo6V57da6Bufrzj3JQezCuOn13BACRprSk8hGZg2vp8LaOX7DFTwnS-gNw0xTwQ7ql0F9-O3u7__C_thmhpEpCqSKEO540nV5nVSLkJYfu--4a1Qy30PCAf36ZsQv... | true | 2 | null | 0.18 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 865 | 2,165 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | -0.198451 |
Will the Supreme Court of India issue an interim order or stay to halt the tender process or construction of the Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar Link Project before March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court of India (specifically regarding Writ Petition No. 1258 of 2025 or related petitions involving the Telangana-Andhra Pradesh water dispute) issues a stay order or an interim directive that formally halts Andhra Pradesh's ability to proceed with tenders or physical constr... | null | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-01-12T00:00:00 | 1b7f7843-44d0-439d-a93d-d27c90ed9e2e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Telangana files petition in Supreme Court challenging AP's Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar link project (published on 2025-12-16 by telanganatoday.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Telangana has filed a Supreme Court petition (Article 32) cha... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a well-calibrated forecast (probability) that the Supreme Court of India will issue an interim order or stay to halt the tender process or construction of the Polavaram-Nallamala Sagar Link Project before 31 March 2026, given that today is 31 Dec 2025.
We have to treat c... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGES1JfWWqRtoknQYwB8bBJbqjLkv1ADJOiJpXXC4Fa7mr4anPbHM66kqw82OLmnc5Aac3Bo-VH5qIjI7R-JzUX9YBzIOBDGxC6GyFipek_vUoDqr-zLzoTBmyxrCCEPfPK_7y-DCfHqS6dkY0leKAx_iU4BARtHS_hZxVbyY1ZLgLbmO8NFkQLuerAerN3zc4YtsecLbgMvj2Lw3qZQRqTnrz9bxh4_JiRlINBSzn1v8HGZXMfhoWP, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.2 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,729 | 4,031 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 | -0.223144 |
Will Tim Walz leave the office of the Governor of Minnesota before June 1, 2026? | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Tim Walz resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise vacates the position of Governor of Minnesota at any point before 11:59 PM local time on June 1, 2026. The question resolves to 'No' if he remains the incumbent Governor on that date. This includes any departure resulting from the... | null | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-05-07T00:00:00 | ec158701-babd-4e49-afdf-df3aa11d0ba0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Group of Republican legislators calls for Gov. Tim Walz to resign (published on 2025-12-29 by mnsenaterepublicans.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: On December 29, 2025, several Minnesota House and Senate Republicans urged Gov. Tim Walz... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that Tim Walz will leave office as governor of Minnesota before June 1, 2026, based on context provided, including political pressure, investigations of fraud etc. We are at date Dec 31, 2025.
We need to weigh evidence: The question date is afte... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF0lVj2lztSal7RUk8RAQfGERb3PLpa5vhme8ti5DzFUAdM8wodjyIaGBCVcJ9q4AQtZVOoGb3bxwiAMWNmiah0wyrOqi0OA6JFE89AjAkYpY1zE7Oo-FxB0a40H_LYpTPFm1qqWARidj-gHELGBO39Hlt7lhsNOyAjsuwKOk74-yaolFg-mf7JwF7jpQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redir... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,153 | 1,522 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | -0.072571 |
Will Navy Capt. Sean Barbabella be replaced as the personal physician to the President of the United States before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the White House announces a new individual has been appointed or named as the Physician to the President, or if the White House confirms that Navy Capt. Sean Barbabella has resigned, retired, or been removed from that specific role. If Sean Barbabella remains the primary Physician to ... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 520172bb-d2b1-4dba-a095-f4db3fc3dbc1 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] White House Releases More Information on Trump's MRI Amid Questions Over President's Health (published on 2025-12-01 by time.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: The White House said President Donald Trump's recent MRI was \"preventive\" a... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a well-calibrated forecast for the probability that Navy Capt. Sean Barbabella will be replaced as the personal physician to the President of the United States before April 1, 2026 (i.e., by the end of March 31, 2026). The question date is currently Jan 1, 2026. So we ha... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHTXF81i_1nKipChNhmFBBuNxIIvSqJjMKZqXDKUn6-4oTn3TFYvGSMU9rx52uG2cEyKwasDrG6rKSKSepW-9dEWUjj6LguoU5f81Cs6iTR2YpxOdqNYbiEkoB_bzjPkD8oUb6au6C8OoY82NlxnGpdBzTomiD5Rg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQECNF2bNfYoFJ73VJX8... | true | 2 | null | 0.03 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,010 | 1,316 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | -0.030459 |
Will NASA announce the launch or final selection of a new dedicated Near-Earth Object (NEO) deflection or redirection mission (distinct from the completed DART mission) before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if NASA officially announces a new mission specifically designed for planetary defense via asteroid deflection (e.g., following the DART model) or the formal selection of such a project for an upcoming launch window. The announcement must appear on NASA's official news release site (nasa.... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 35cda361-767c-4030-845a-caffce26f553 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "NASA NEO deflection mission launch selection announcement; NASA NEA Scout mission NEO deflection redirection update; NASA NEO mission final selection redirect deflection proposal; NASA DART successor mission dedicated NEO deflect... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to forecast: Will NASA announce the launch or final selection of a new dedicated NEO deflection or redirection mission (distinct from DART) before Feb 1, 2026? The current date is Jan 1, 2026. So we have a window of one month (January). The question: will NASA make such an announce... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGl6klYTLX0pnwoq2raTmbLvNqYCAZqkaeRm7084LU2W7jSsEPxMSMiK3K4iBKr72txuLGIZZW9sj6MunOEi_sUke2mrjklug9_7RO2fIGqWIoAa0MoOQRM6qoq2WIpjZr4kut2g1qQ-BZxzwWvyos76DyccvFS-Fejx669nAXox_AZXBsbPlHdGetxBISiR6iwubUwK549SXdpdymZHqz7vRKXZNRJMDvQ3lv80ChSf3OCh9yP1qUYdC-xk... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 434 | 2,723 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will the United States government formally impose additional tariffs on imports of Indian rice before May 1, 2026? | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the US President signs an executive order or the US Trade Representative (USTR) publishes a final rule in the Federal Register specifically imposing a new tariff surcharge on rice imported from India before May 1, 2026. This must be a specific action targeted at rice imports from India... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 278a94fb-871e-4a59-a0ee-d60bd96393fb | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'India should not be dumping rice': Trump signals fresh tariffs as US farmers decry cheap imports (published on 2025-12-09 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump said he may impose new tariffs on agricultural... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We have to produce a calibrated probability that the US government will formally impose additional tariffs on imports of Indian rice before May 1, 2026, given current knowledge at Jan 1 2026 (today's date). The question: "Will the United States government formally impose additional tariffs... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGSm75Xr40WHvt1S09SZ9JNfFz90KgGXRdDX3iaIO_SUSCyyc3vveqA-jD8vEKEkBZi4xzRD7i7uXWYuYWRhAiLlP8B5jeOqL99dIW-Ucps_0Ne2k40eb4FBywRRmHMCtFULHZSD6L1Y7liTQ1i72m9zbzCnSeh8ncbnNQm287eaOjqP3UKxhXOI6GtOjZLKduGrqHO, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-a... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,876 | 3,972 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 | -0.094311 |
Will the Trump administration officially announce a reduction or withholding of at least $100 million in federal funding for New York City by March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the White House, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, or another federal agency issues a formal notification or public statement declaring that at least $100 million in federal grants or aid intended for New York City is being withheld, rescinded, or redirected, specifically citing mun... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-13T00:00:00 | 8df418b2-5a1c-4b71-a3b5-5a03b58e4b43 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump officials threaten to withhold Snap funds from Democratic-led states | Trump administration (published on 2025-12-02 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Trump administration, via USDA Agriculture Secretary Brooke ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability forecast that the Trump administration will officially announce a reduction or withholding of at least $100 million in federal funding for New York City by March 31, 2026. The current date in scenario is Jan 1, 2026. We need to evaluate based on i... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGaV1frIPj0-wlwo8ogc0UnnlRFErhv8Y-PTL8QDvlkIOtfl3ksiwxGL-h_PjtsSXS4hbbxpkgvJqJgKZxcbp-KbyNhaRLlEbO4tYcQNGj8nZvyfP4keKJpHtqj73HoYk5oZL3iKv_1sysuSBDrCZOfX_T330oJ5WYNLTNExjm5AbGK2rWf954QmJGtsUrbvOGE7PiCVCtQhoFHhq98DnhajVvXqSIJDkyLJw==, https://vertexaisea... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,990 | 2,489 | null | -2.040221 | 0.7569 | -2.040221 |
Will the United States and India sign a formal bilateral trade agreement that reduces tariffs on Indian steel or aluminum exports before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal bilateral trade agreement or a signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Indian governments is publicly announced by April 1, 2026, which specifically includes a commitment to reduce or eliminate the current US tariffs on Indian steel (25%) or aluminum (10%).... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-02-06T00:00:00 | ea5ec448-33b1-44df-94f3-dd90a04af4d1 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'Yes, There's a Strategy': Trump's Trade Chief Hits Back at Tariff Critics (published on 2025-12-05 by politico.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says Trump's tariff policy follows a \"strategy,\... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the US and India will sign a formal bilateral trade agreement (or MoU) reducing tariffs on Indian steel (25%) or aluminum (10%) before April 1, 2026.
We have today's date Jan 1, 2026; close date Apr 1, 2026; roughly a 3-month window. Need t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGQTv8ESVxSlbdhAfGb3RYAMdVhvD_pM14sRLmRor1QkXkqUKu70clkzC0JYJAN8tAP6igZ80GAg-jkYnKxJqjFFTAr7-ZRTx9-Cz2H-bAwhAaFzZwWjMNSzNgZ8-m5zFglPgWR2LaNldTOgfplsvliCd-om64yjmqqFQ0wIdR0gHsP7-kJz-dzRaHS6APHRHBJ2Lb62ebf, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groundi... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,520 | 2,282 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will the White House release a summary of a new official physical examination for Donald Trump between January 1, 2026, and May 1, 2026? | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a medical summary or formal memorandum regarding the President's health, based on an examination conducted in 2026, is publicly released by the White House physician or the White House Press Office by May 1, 2026. This follows the precedent of his April 2025 physical. If no such summar... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-05-01T00:00:00 | 2f58b6f7-fec7-4a31-a942-248222a03f84 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] White House said Trump underwent MRI on heart and abdomen in October, with his physician saying all was 'normal' (published on 2025-12-01 by nbcnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The White House released a memo summarizing the resul... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for whether the White House will release a summary of a new official physical examination for Donald Trump between Jan 1 2026 and May 1 2026.
We have context: news articles about a "new official physical" in December 2025, describing a memo for MR... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwHPLgH2xkTWn9oKqMx87SdFs6_79vI0swVT5zdbq-jlg_xb2z30isJ7d1da3-FBtWoxAmhDZWfcYeG_BxClTCLQA25rPvvUjC6OhnTT-2yfsuyQAloaAl_fMcfxX5KoVSB4q5JdjXePASrnHYAYlXBSKVPWuweq9KUVmEty7dNr4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF85TBJ... | true | 2 | null | 0.62 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,042 | 3,249 | null | -0.967584 | 0.3844 | -0.967584 |
Will the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) publish a final rule or formal regulatory guidance regarding the establishment of 'Trump Accounts' in the Federal Register by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a final rule, notice of proposed rulemaking, or an official IRS Bulletin detailing the regulatory framework for 'Trump Accounts' (authorized under the Working Families Tax Cuts Act) is published in the Federal Register or on the official IRS.gov website on or before April 1, 2026. 'Mid... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-03-09T00:00:00 | 3cb03d25-21f0-45fd-ba4d-645e2370e85d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] IRS Issues Trump Account Guidance (published on 2025-12-03 by thinkadvisor.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Treasury and the IRS announced Notice 2025-68, offering \"considerable guidance\" on \"Trump Accounts\" and calling it only an ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a calibrated probability that the IRS will publish a final rule or formal regulatory guidance regarding 'Trump Accounts' in the Federal Register (or on IRS.gov) by April 1, 2026. The question date is Jan 1, 2026. The resolution date is April 1, 2026. The context includes... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHUepjunQ6fVbBgB4-r6XADPmIDMObYjfF91G5g3DKu0Xb_qd19yoNRX4z14GybI27uVg9wswa56Gg3qDMeT_Axw6f2MV5Dq5EMaP1cHphQhL689HGteifzzf8i, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE_P3GnkCQGR-fvuP0RJ_tZ0Am1FBvXwqyzND-ZJr3ebrWWM9dA_nwsCLwl... | true | 2 | null | 0.29 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,439 | 6,638 | null | -1.237874 | 0.5041 | -1.237874 |
Will the New York City Rent Guidelines Board or the New York City Council implement a freeze on rent for one-year leases for rent-stabilized apartments before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal vote or executive order is passed by the New York City Rent Guidelines Board or the New York City Council to set the adjustment rate for one-year leases at 0% (a freeze) for any period in 2026. The resolution must be publicly announced by April 1, 2026, and reported by major o... | null | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | c836f022-3e1d-46c9-a54d-5057c73ad1e8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Why Zohran Mamdani's \"Freeze the Rent\" Policy Won't Get Past NYC's Rent Guidelines Board (published on 2025-12-19 by manhattan.institute) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Zohran Mamdani pledged to freeze rent on nearly 1 million NYC rent-... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast (float 0-1) for whether NYC Rent Guidelines Board (RGB) or NYC Council will implement a freeze on rent for one-year leases for rent-stabilized apartments before April 1, 2026. The freeze is defined as: formal vote or executive order passed by RGB o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHWCeGFJx0wn0dw8jNmV4EvLuUgmEBGlj5biwJtDTnXUt61jwdalM7rPfKayp1pdchfU4dkjA7uXL9fsMMBAUKhD-kAHQwnZCYzZPWPoTBgUDe2Cl9uLVZWGdSc-7yddPVjI3OzPst20obP1c7unWFsrmvFHQ9fHLhZ5zjS1Q==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEMPXRHLinW... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,073 | 2,066 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | -0.040822 |
Will the Supreme Court of India issue a final judgment or order on the Kerala government's review petition regarding the mandatory nature of the Teachers' Eligibility Test (TET) by March 31, 2026? | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, on or before March 31, 2026, the Supreme Court of India issues a formal ruling, judgment, or order disposing of the review petition filed by the State of Kerala concerning the mandatory status of TET for school teachers (related to Writ Petition No 1385/2025). This will be verified thro... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | deb3b6ee-22a9-4cc6-bc50-96f1b109ba8a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Supreme Court Review: Top 10 judgements of 2025 (published on 2025-12-29 by scobserver.in) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Supreme Court highlighted 10 landmark 2025 decisions chosen by \"citability.\" Key governance rulings included: cour... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We must forecast probability that Supreme Court of India will issue a final judgment or order on Kerala government's review petition regarding the mandatory nature of TET by March 31, 2026.
Given today's date is 2026-01-02. So we need to consider next 3 months: Jan, Feb, March 2026.
We h... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEJw4urNJpRsBHrlwGhUs4Q0PzzfjCNxIylTgMSuvs_2C8zXxKsuKsJv7Mz3CMRl2WXyNd78RwqqG3IhiawZLlUx6FBkOMjfSxdtTKY78fQNWWx3St8CdOaI3Jw1csPJkFPiteYZ7Vik9xW1LtGjWLS_uhQF-gK947C_-MFojQtr5TFdvfecGnn_q5p8U-MkwNYgOBn9x51FWJz2a6I-mz7Hq7bWwIBf39Zl_x7mAEmRT9-g7SexaUnswwm4... | true | 2 | null | 0.22 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,390 | 2,395 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | -0.248461 |
Will the market exchange rate for the Iranian rial (IRR) reach or exceed 2.0 million rials per 1 US dollar before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Iranian rial's open-market exchange rate (as reported by Bonbast or major financial news outlets like Reuters or Bloomberg) reaches a value of 2,000,000 IRR to 1 USD or higher at any point between January 2, 2026, and March 31, 2026. The seed text establishes the rate at 1.4 millio... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 88b88e06-5838-4e05-8ff5-3744e4cabec2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran's Rial Currency Plummets to New Low, Sparking Fears of Higher Food Prices (published on 2025-12-15 by english.aawsat.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Iran's rial slid Monday to a new record low of over 1.3 million rials per US dol... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a calibrated probability forecast that the Iranian rial exchange rate will reach or exceed 2,000,000 IRR per USD at any point between Jan 2 2026 and March 31 2026.
We have context: news articles up through Dec 2025 (some early Jan 2026) showing currency at around 1.3-1.4... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFDW1czYsxumgXbxCpW4l_9dOTbtrv1MmGenBvSoDJbj2JSoF9sZ06uaCyradEnrsZZDmHZ1MtNAqNnteDRsm2gYtzI5UfP9GgPeT2ljr1N3lOKA8FaD6wZ6DDhjbbxFozHMVod_7lcKXEtlo2p2lsXBLU4DkEBtW18D0429af4f3ns, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHNv8Mb... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,151 | 2,435 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the United States military conduct any kinetic air or missile strikes within the sovereign territory of Iran between January 3, 2026, and March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the US Department of Defense, the White House, or reputable international news agencies (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) confirm that the US military launched missiles, dropped bombs, or conducted manned or unmanned air strikes against targets located on the soil of the Islamic Republic of Iran... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 0acf5d09-9033-4b57-9bb7-ab4791f70590 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Iran leader says country in 'full-fledged' war with US, Israel, Europe (published on 2025-12-29 by defensenews.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is in a \"full-fledged war\" with America, Is... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: As a forecasting analyst, we must produce a probability estimate for the question:
"Will the United States military conduct any kinetic air or missile strikes within the sovereign territory of Iran between January 3, 2026, and March 1, 2026?" The resolution criteria specify that... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFP2SjwDIGAQyCsR_rscK1cPoJnhC8l9f95mqPwiafo9CC0eN2UhsArHptnwwC8Ya3l0ve8gWNTPS6GgBYR0iEIJPPw9Pfa2ROG8NI6GcDxmL04ETKEgGj0YyuTk1Jv3tmqXpNfakJF32E=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHYHsa6dCUlC0ILsC18XRyHqZiTqKwSAV3-SiIB... | true | 2 | null | 0.045 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,387 | 4,445 | null | -3.101093 | 0.912025 | -3.101093 |
Will the Supreme Court of India issue a stay on the enforcement of the K-TET mandatory qualification guidelines for Kerala government teachers before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Supreme Court of India officially issues an interim stay order or a judgment that suspends the implementation of the Kerala government's K-TET mandate guidelines (issued in January 2026) for any category of teachers. This must be reported by a major Indian news outlet (e.g., The Hi... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 17b9ba07-c4bb-4e18-8e1f-00d3bc3b7354 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Kerala teachers' benefits withheld citing SC ruling on K-TET qualification; govt faces criticism (published on 2025-12-04 by english.mathrubhumi.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Kerala education offices are withholding benefits, includ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that the Supreme Court of India will issue a stay on the enforcement of the K-TET mandatory qualification guidelines for Kerala government teachers before April 1, 2026.
We have today's date Jan 2 2026. The timeline: K-TET mandatory qualification guidel... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF4n3kYx1qZJDheYBPEwkYRyVgZRJ8rSVD2nmOE3I4Q0PBOq6Ijk-BPkvpqIt5kEWBKOVD92Z5274GtDUc8tKCubtjQ0dGzQSI5J0bHIM8TcvCAvG9i-4_Dzv0PZMQkIBs8l4_y9oXyMGM3gQSyE-SdDAMJQ4_KCJ-QP4KI9W9jzmTunVOdphdw50MP7T1hYhqJm6aLe3_sB3sIP9S07_a4nyWW0ImkqpwL-4PSaLpGXWzPM5J2wmr6HeC-N... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 835 | 1,748 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
Will the Kerala Department of General Education officially reinstate the K-TET exemption for candidates holding PhD, MPhil, or NET qualifications by April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, by April 1, 2026, the Kerala government issues a new Government Order (GO) or official directive that reverses the withdrawal of exemptions mentioned in the January 2026 guidelines, specifically allowing candidates with PhD, MPhil, or NET qualifications to be appointed or promoted witho... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 9a395071-95f3-4c0f-87da-f8bdcea6e10e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Kerala Department of General Education K-TET exemption PhD MPhil NET reinstatement; K-TET exemption for PhD MPhil NET April 2026 Kerala; Kerala education department notification K-TET exemption NET MPhil PhD; Kerala High Court K-... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast that Kerala Department of General Education will reinstate the K-TET exemption for PhD, MPhil, or NET candidates by April 1, 2026. We have minimal context: only the question and some small context. The NEWS line: "Recent news articles relevant to t... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF7CNu8i8CyB2wCOQYbwjbYb6L-LlHhdLh-RSPtGqLEdm9cHK4h_HZFhqAal4OfXXi1Ed9O0E2DILJb19rBop4VE6zCXl5oyZs1YTbK3szxiWytBYPR5WyBTaRfCPhw-FQ7Ho9o5ZmrI51aZXHREXpgnKDZrCQl138IQ4LhX8pa_YbXDnHPwSahSy_9BpZKQEJKTkbsW2QB1pg8RgwdvrmKn3d9dxyQ9IDMARtWvemOUxFiGrjvLydlGeDDu... | true | 2 | null | 0.14 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 418 | 1,557 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | -0.150823 |
Will the Haryana state government or the Ambala District Administration formally announce a new digital portal or toll-free helpline specifically for verifying the legal status of colonies in Ambala before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official announcement is made by the Haryana government (via the Directorate of Town and Country Planning) or the Ambala District Administration regarding the launch of a new, specific digital platform or a dedicated hotline intended for residents to check the legality of residentia... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | cd4023d7-d299-456a-91ba-08fc622d2bd1 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Haryana government digital portal legal status of colonies Ambala helpline; Ambala District Administration toll-free helpline colony legal status; Ambala colony legal status verification portal official announcement; Haryana colo... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that before April 1, 2026 (i.e., within the next three months from Jan 2 2026), the Haryana state government or Ambala District Administration will formally announce a new digital portal or toll‑free helpline specifically for verifying the legal status o... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHR3YlVW5b1Tx0TWnIEH4Q-lbeWJGHHo4hP2iyd5rODWTVAAkDq-EdRv3j7VXcHnCBR1p6SZO1W8BxUX-ztVKlqx3HH-Xmd3ivYnt0-uh7YQXzlpgQaoF6XdOTh_8LQPRLgg_6PIjb7-luxI-VINjvtzjJQqp3cRwWQfD5K6YyV9wsjmlbuwtmwVzrIvnumMerjktJBMNlvNm5brBdFMgEHOs1bakwHwNq5yj3pcw0-iRtvCMwYsFaW_Q64p... | true | 2 | null | 0.15 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 400 | 2,071 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | -0.162519 |
Will the United States Department of State or Department of Defense report a direct military attack by Iranian state forces against the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if an official statement from the US Department of State, the US Department of Defense, or a Presidential announcement confirms that Iranian military forces (including the IRGC or Iranian regular military) launched a direct kinetic attack (missiles, drones, or artillery) that impacted the ... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-03T00:00:00 | 24b99d0b-d416-4ccf-ba1f-cff903809208 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] IRGC: Iran Hit Haifa Refinery Twice, Caused Casualties in Strike on \"Israeli\" Intelligence Site (published on 2025-12-08 by islamtimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: IRGC Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini said Iran struck the Haifa re... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: produce a probability forecast for whether the US State Department or Department of Defense will report a direct Iranian state forces military attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar before April 1, 2026. Today's date: Jan 2, 2026. So we are forecasting from Jan 2 to Apr 1, 2026.
W... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFCnZEcshfuSznvHGrN0HHJMzBWEE6wHr1RPXCVGOk6qb_UWpPGNQlKKNNGbmqK4pNaC3zlMWc7DNDrpsc5sGfmtQTXJ9uRF3WtYC5YAlBrvUtNx6wORbz4pWkIjVpcCR0z_uoce7jeZjU39tj2nosVxG4a-covoaX3xpgyM8aE5RMjDC1W4vzmux5ObE_U8_hCTTu_uJnvSTzhC798A9NJ_dmcddnTIMmtpCr_QJqmhNSVQrfIx3k=, htt... | true | 2 | null | 0.05 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,156 | 2,923 | null | -2.995732 | 0.9025 | -2.995732 |
Will Iran's Revolutionary Guard or military forces conduct a documented strike on any U.S. military installation in Iraq, Syria, or Qatar before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a major international news agency (Reuters, AP, or Bloomberg) between January 3, 2026, and April 1, 2026, stating that Iranian forces or IRGC-controlled units launched missiles, drones, or artillery that impacted a U.S.... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | a74ab385-a252-44ff-aaf7-087c7cbf2fce | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Israel warns US Iran missile drills may be cover for surprise attack - Axios (published on 2025-12-22 by iranintl.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Israel told the US that Iran's recent missile drills could be a cover for a surprise str... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We are asked to generate a forecast probability that Iran's Revolutionary Guard or military forces will conduct a documented strike on any U.S. military installation in Iraq, Syria, or Qatar before April 1, 2026.
We have today's date Jan 2, 2026. The close date is April 1, 2026. So the ti... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEjeVxJSzpbtCznn_PqYRWy9ZPZ9vLukY8ZjhoBg11vwXA503WQheZ0k7SHrMNjsoa8G9cV7CEf9GHEYOxPbkK3dGd5BZ5dGm_FggltblP1etQSZCwD733jZljONHC35tqGQ5Len_8_bBEAmIPBBTyhaen7x_4=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEU6kD6XvETJrCKM6wgwo-v... | true | 2 | null | 0.07 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,510 | 2,855 | null | -2.65926 | 0.8649 | -2.65926 |
Will the United States Department of Defense officially announce an increase in the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed in the Middle East before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) or the White House issues an official statement or press release between January 3, 2026, and March 15, 2026, confirming a net increase in the deployment of U.S. troops to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in response to regi... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-03-02T00:00:00 | d5f0a6d2-5df6-4f64-b5e2-6df0ad189897 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US military stands up first kamikaze drone squadron under Centcom's new 'Scorpion Strike' task force (published on 2025-12-03 by defensescoop.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: The Pentagon has stood up the first U.S. kamikaze drone squa... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast the probability that the US DoD or White House will officially announce an increase (net increase) in the total number of US military personnel stationed in the Middle East (CENTCOM AOR) before March 15, 2026.
We have a context list of news items up to Dec 2025. The cu... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE1VgqyLf4mAK0ah79zWq1FlB1-iOSOrtH88fKbaLG5LL6oi6858Q239sNaL4XDbb3EHetmT6NueJnwcbtpqrbVQdByW4OF7TD30qyISLjfIFSpk_uGLGXipQYPL1fA7jM7B0FpCKm79KdSarrTKfDNJz3TsmeTi3GeTDM0Sgc0DJfPla6F1i4ZgNaWu6vy9RRN5-SuUDai6B43aWHYrhqA4qA52N7j5ionuX6ICAdRPBS5, https://ver... | true | 2 | null | 0.09 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,047 | 3,509 | null | -2.407946 | 0.8281 | -2.407946 |
Will the Haryana Town and Country Planning Department or the District Town Planner (DTP) Ambala carry out a demolition drive against at least one additional illegal colony in Ambala district before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a primary news source (e.g., The Tribune, Times of India, Hindustan Times) or an official government release from the Haryana Town and Country Planning Department reports that a demolition drive occurred against at least one unauthorized or illegal colony in any area of Ambala district... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-03-26T00:00:00 | b18e39fc-1d02-4796-bcea-96f47ce68cdd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambala district illegal colony demolition drive District Town Planner DTP; Haryana Town and Country Planning Department demolition drive Ambala illegal colony; Ambala district illegal colony regularization court case demolition o... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Haryana Town and Country Planning Department (HTCPD) or District Town Planner (DTP) Ambala will carry out demolition drive against at least one additional illegal colony in Ambala district before April 1, 2026.
Date today: 2026-01-02. We have a window ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGgWkP5cO2Nj3Jb_vRt-C0FPY1yL2yWRYS88isMIYzKFS0LvIQZtYxLNhen5IiuBDvs4PHahEkZs4J7joWLN4unhcc5uGhxiL8ajnqXYFxM3CWhpj0lOxvviVUSMU4Od1uPzTG6WnsNhW6LdiuzRCDgFBcBV56It3_iI2h2IqN5J6I372JaE5AwNlrfwDiNYeVLqsj9KUqRo8DsCN5wM1xKiq20MZXOZ3YVFm6ycisPIt8FCwnPDyVFQ3H8j... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 425 | 2,192 | null | -3.218876 | 0.9216 | -3.218876 |
Will the United States Department of Defense report a direct military engagement between U.S. forces and Iranian military forces within Iranian territory before April 1, 2026? | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between January 2, 2026, and March 31, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House officially confirms that U.S. military assets (personnel, aircraft, or missiles) engaged in combat operations within the internationally recognized borders and territorial waters of Iran. Cy... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 1.0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 87cb3b39-3df6-4b4a-a8eb-6b15d71d5474 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Twelve Days of Inferno: The Cost of Opening Pandora's Box (published on 2025-12-17 by studies.aljazeera.net) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: On 13 June 2025, Tehran was hit by multiple waves of attacks that the article frames as the start ... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce calibrated probability that US Dept of Defense will report a direct military engagement between US forces and Iranian military forces within Iranian territory before April 1, 2026 (i.e., between Jan 2 and Mar 31, 2026). The question is to forecast if US will confirm such... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEQE9_EBYMQ3I1Spc2t2h19ZPgBqGDKvtZ9ZLJ20KTsKGvNwxUYJG2yHtNqZtUdxqIBV0ksDoiCmBUje5U49BfTvMF_rAmSn4s54oCAPUIkxf6sVjolPegAG6CCapnR3RJa8X5B1gYpXvoZzs7hygn1z82VS5MYcRPLnimho-8Apnfo5ZIPNVCvf1TRt9aZDg==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-r... | true | 2 | null | 0.04 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,469 | 3,668 | null | -3.218876 | 0.9216 | -3.218876 |
Will the Kerala State Government officially withdraw the 2026 K-TET mandatory guidelines for holders of higher qualifications like NET or PhD by March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Government of Kerala issues an official Government Order (GO) or public announcement via the General Education Department before March 15, 2026, reinstating the exemption for candidates holding SET, NET, MPhil, PhD, or MEd qualifications from the K-TET requirement. This must be a r... | null | 2026-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.0 | 1 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 5ebc2d29-3192-4dbe-8c4c-dce63cfe9609 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] KTET May and June 2025 results out at ktet.kerala.gov.in; download here (published on 2025-12-03 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Kerala Pareekshabhavan has released the K-TET May and June 2025 results on kte... | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a probability forecast for the question: "Will the Kerala State Government officially withdraw the 2026 K-TET mandatory guidelines for holders of higher qualifications like NET or PhD by March 15, 2026?"
The question description: The government issued a policy that K-T... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFi1jEuj9LJh1MT_fwRVsGrJh7l80-iToq0IeLJ6Ph-AF2JUvIhR6E3c2MyKdKeIudBxbF3xYQjY-JOTSOJl5d1EfbXlh7EftnnaLQD1mr6zvIqPDnpHEBm2lbTbKNMOV0ooXemK1gtdcF2dyJFxUktiTTQf7lDymTad-EBj1_bQXGl7M5XwOVYd2qAZQ7fVf6uKOGRdg-S747oWIBaUgbS1nFy-2s0fLVUIygBzZCIUXsyKH5lpz96Qnpie... | true | 2 | null | 0.13 | 0 | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to produce a well-calibrated forecast for how it will resolve by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 744 | 1,452 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 | -0.139262 |
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