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is confusing is that there are many ways it can be described. People may choose one way to describe risk to emphasize how high it is, while others use another way to express the same risk to downplay it. Remarkably, the same risk can seem quite different depending on how it is expressed. One of the most common areas of... |
difference between absolute risk and relative risk. Imagine that you are offered a choice of two medications to reduce your risk of a heart attack: - Medication A will decrease your risk of heart attack by 20%. - Medication B reduces your risk from 5% to 4%. If you think that Medication A sounds better, you are not alo... |
comparing the new risk with the risk before treatment. Although vitally important, the actual risk with and without the medicine is not mentioned for Medication A. If you thought Medication B sounds less impressive, perhaps it's because knowing that the starting and ending risks are similar that is, knowing the actual,... |
when overall risk is very low or very high in the first place. Although they provide a more accurate assessment of risk, expressions of absolute risk are often missing from news or ads. Most of us would think that Medication A is better. But as described, Medication A and B could be the same drug. Reducing a risk of 5 ... |
in 100 is identical to a 20% relative risk reduction. So it is not surprising that what you usually read in news reports and see in advertisements are changes in relative risk rather than the more critical number, the absolute risk. The relative risk tends to be the larger and more persuasive number. For the person or ... |
most people find it easier to relate to one number (20% risk reduction for medication A) rather than keeping track of the initial risk and how it changes with treatment (5% to 4% for medication B). However, the simplicity of relative risk comes at the cost of incomplete and potentially misleading information. Without k... |
be nearly meaningless. Consider one of the most commonly prescribed medications in the world: the birth control pill. For nonsmoking women aged 25 to 29, the risk of death attributed to side effects of the pill is estimated at about 1 in 100,000 and doubles for women who are 30 to 34. If a 33-year-old woman were told s... |
dying from a birth control pill than a woman under 30, she might incorrectly interpret this as high risk. In fact, even though her risk is slightly higher than for younger women (by 0.001%), she is actually at a very low risk of dying, even lower than the estimated risk of death related to childbirth (10 to 25 per 100,... |
There are, of course, other ways to express risk that shape how it is perceived. Reports of new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed "every three minutes" or the lifetime risk of breast cancer being one in nine, are not very helpful in understanding your own particular risk. Estimating your individual risk by considering... |
the risk of lung cancer) is a better way to express risk. The generally quoted figure for the risk of getting struck by lightning is 1 in 600,000, but it's much greater if you are holding a metal rod (for instance, a golf club) on a hill during a thunderstorm. Risk tends to be better understood when broken down by a fi... |
time, such as five or 10 years, rather than over one's entire life. Reports of lifetime risk may also include disease that has no bearing on one's overall health, such as a slow-growing prostate tumor that never affects health or longevity (a common scenario among elderly men). Back to top The Bottom Line It is importa... |
even with accurate and unbiased information. Cynics say statistics can be used to argue any position, and there is some truth to that. But there are some simple measures you can take to get a better handle on risk: - Acknowledge that risk is a fact of life and often cannot be avoided entirely. In fact, most decisions o... |
or treat disease depend on balancing the risks and benefits of the treatment options. - Look for reports that put the risk in context. One way is to compare one risk to another, more familiar risk. For example, the risk of contracting a rare disease could be compared with being struck by lightning, while a more common ... |
of injury or death in a car accident. - Ask yourself if the source is objective and seeks only to inform you, or whether there is another goal in mind. Sometimes it's easy: If the source is an advertiser trying to sell you something, the information is more likely to be biased. - Beware of reports that use lifetime ris... |
the number of cases per year to cases per day or hour. Even if they are technically accurate, they are probably overemphasizing the point. What matters most is the absolute rather than the relative risk. In my initial example of the drug with a 20% relative risk reduction with no serious side effects in 98% of users, t... |
would get the disease, but 200 would experience a deadly side effect clearly an example of a treatment that is worse than the disease. But it's also an example of how misleading descriptions of risk can be. Back to top Robert H. Shmerling, M.D. is associate physician at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and associat... |
practicing rheumatologist for over 20 years at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. He is an active teacher in the Internal Medicine Residency Program, serving as the Robinson Firm Chief. He is also a teacher in the Rheumatology Fellowship Program. |
The satellite images displayed are infrared (IR) images. Warmest (lowest) clouds are shown in white; coldest (highest) clouds are displayed in shades of yellow, red, and purple. Imagery is obtained from the GOES and METEOSAT geostationary satellites, and the two US Polar Orbiter (POES) satellites. POES satellites orbit... |
each orbit is made the satellite can view a 1,600 mile (2,700 km) wide area of the earth. Due to the rotation of the earth the satellite is able to view every spot on earth twice each day. Data from multiple orbits are mosaicked together to provide wide scale global and full earth views in a single image. Occasional da... |
on POES images are a result of gaps in data transmitted from the orbiters. A weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather of the Earth. These meteorological satellites, however, see more than clouds and cloud systems . City lights, fires, effects of pollution, auroras, sand and... |
currents, energy flows, etc., are other types of environmental information collected using weather satellites. Weather satellite images helped in monitoring the volcanic ash cloud from Mount St. Helens and activity from other volcanoes such as Mount Etna. Smoke from fires in the western United States such as Colorado a... |
sea color, and ice fields. For example, the 2002 oil spill off the northwest coast of Spain was watched carefully by the European ENVISAT, which, though not a weather satellite, flies an instrument (ASAR) which can see changes in the sea surface El Niño and its effects on weather are monitored daily from satellite imag... |
... 1542, Catherine Howard was beheaded for adultery at the Tower of London. Of this queen (below right), the 5th of 6 wives of the English King Henry VIII, this |
website writes: Catherine Howard did not have an impact upon English history. She is perhaps the most inconsequential of Henry VIII's six wives, her reign as queen a very brief |
eighteen months. She bore no children and made no lasting impression upon those who knew her. But it should be remembered that she was thirty years younger than her husband, |
a silly young girl who never understood the dangers of royal regard. Her life was over before it had truly begun; we can only wonder how it might have ended |
differently.Not a word of fault found with the fatally fickle king. ... 1961, officials in the province of Katanga announced that the man who'd served from June to September 1960 |
as Congo's 1st Prime Minister, Patrice Lumumba, was dead. It was claimed that Lumumba (below left) had been "killed by villagers trying to take him into custody"; however, years later |
that was deemed not to be the whole truth. According to the BBC: A Belgian Government inquiry into the murders reported in November 2001 that they would not have taken |
place without the complicity of Belgian and American intelligence services. In February 2002 the Belgian Government made its first official apology for its part in the assassinations and has set |
Technicolor, detailing the three-strip process used in The Wizard of Oz and Gone With the Wind and reveal the people behind its success, inventors Herbert Kalmus, Daniel Comstock and W. Burton Westcott, who set up shop in Hollywood in 1923. Also integral to its success was Natalie Kalmus, a consultant |
for Technicolor on many classic films who, in making decisions about makeup, costumes and lighting, controlled the aura of Technicolor. “Our take on the Hollywood story goes behind the camera to examine the inventions that significantly changed both the way movies were made and the complexity and popularity of movies |
themselves,” said Art Molella, director of the center. “The Hollywood and Technicolor stories exemplify the outcomes possible when creativity and collaboration are allowed to thrive.” The invention and evolution of Technicolor made possible such awards as Best Visual Effects while transforming Hollywood into a hot spot... |
a critical mass of inventive people, networks, institutions and funding come together and creativity flourishes. This year alone, six of the nine nominees for Best Picture implemented various Technicolor technologies in their films. Overall, 19 films nominated for Oscars employed Technicolor’s various offerings in thei... |
possible by a $2.6 million grant from the National Science Foundation—will feature a selection of hot spots of invention and innovation. The planned 3,500-square-foot exhibition will focus on the mid-19th century to the present and will feature hands-on experiences based on inventive skill-building and illustrating the... |
study, of valuing creativity and embracing the potential rewards of intellectual risk-taking. The center is supported by The Lemelson Foundation, a private philanthropy established by one of the country’s most prolific inventors, Jerome Lemelson, and his family. The Lemelson Center is located in the National Museum of ... |
For the first time since 1415, we are going to have a conclave or papal election with no Pope to bury beforehand. But the procedures for the election are not affected by this ‘novelty.’ Dan Brown might seem an unlikely source for information on a Papal election but the detailed description in Angels and Demons was appa... |
scholar and is quite accurate. When the See of Rome is declared vacant – normally when a Pope dies – most of the senior prelates who were the Pope’s ‘ministers’ resign. Power is entrusted to a cardinal called the Camerlengo, in this case Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, who under normal circumstances would bury the Pope. The... |
wasn’t always the case. In the 13th century the papacy was vacant for a year-and-a-half and an election was forced by the people of Rome who locked up the cardinals until a pope was elected. In another case, the people not only locked up the cardinals, they tore off the roof of the building and put the cardinals on a d... |
water. Now, with Benedict’s resignation the cardinals are essentially being given a ‘month’s notice’ and can plan their trip to Rome and think about what they want in the new pope. In a sense, because of the pre-planning that can be brought to bear on this election, there is potentially a lot of time to consider who sh... |
world’s 1 billion catholics. The cardinals will stay in a specially constructed 5 storey residence inside the Vatican walls, Santa Marta. and will be conveyed by coach to the Sistine Chapel for morning and afternoon sessions there. The process of election must begin no more than 20 days after the see is vacant. Only ca... |
– the word means ‘with a key’ in Latin, referring to the fact that the Cardinals are locked into the election hall. There are 119 eligible to vote, 67 of whom were appointed by Benedict and the rest by JPII. Cardinals who are excommunicated can actually attend but not those who have resigned. A cardinal who resigned an... |
the conclave in 1800 but was refused. On the morning of the conclave the cardinals con-celebrate Mass in St Peter’s Basilica. In the afternoon they gather in the Pauline Chapel in the Apostolic Palace and solemnly process in full red and white regalia with red hats and enter the Sistine chapel, with the doors locked be... |
internet connections are removed from use whether in the chapel or in the residence. They cannot leave except in the case of grave illness. Also permitted in the conclave are two medical doctors, a nurse for very ill cardinals, and religious priests who can hear confessions in various languages. These have to swear abs... |
is spent for prayer and voting in silence, there are no campaign speeches. Negotiations and arguments have to take place outside. In the Chapel, which dates from the 15th Century, and under the ceiling adorned with Michelangelo's Last Judgement, the cardinals can cast their vote. There will be four ballots daily until ... |
upon to seek the office of Pope and canvassing for it is severely prohibited, especially prior to a Pope dying. It is an office bestowed upon a person rather than their contesting for it. However an outsider could be elected pope and in theory it could be a lay person willing to be ordained a priest and bishop but the ... |
it will be one of the cardinals gathered in the Sistine chapel. The last non cardinal was Pope Urban in 1378. However, discussions prior to a ballot among cardinals do occur privately but public campaigning would be counter productive. Dinners are good vehicles for discussions. However, the best known cardinals tend to... |
and cardinals when they come on business to Rome. The ballot is secret and Pope John Paul II abolished two methods of election: by compromise or by common consent. Since 1179, a new Pope requires a two thirds majority. Now, after 33 ballots, a simple majority is enough. If there is no progress in choosing a candidate, ... |
However, not since 1831 has an election lasted more than four days. The ballot papers themselves are rectangular with “I elect as supreme pontiff” printed at the top and each cardinal prints or writes a name in a way that disguises his handwriting. One at a time they approach the altar with the folded ballot held up, h... |
the ballot in a silver and gilded bronze urn, much like a wok with a lid. Cardinals called ‘scrutineers’ count the ballots. After the ballots are read aloud they are placed on a thread and placed in another urn. They are then burnt. Since 1903, white smoke from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel has signalled the electi... |
a small room off the Sistine Chapel. It is here that the enormity of what has just happened hits the new Pope, though the tears may be of sorrow or joy. Traditionally they were said to be tears of humility as a Pope was following in the footsteps of St Peter; others would contend the tears were because essentially the ... |
of the Vatican and would be bowed down by the weight of the office. The new Pope picks one of three sizes of Papal garments – presumably small, medium or large – and return to the High Altar to receive the homage of the cardinals. Meanwhile, the ballots are burnt in a stove with a chemical which turns the smoke white, ... |
of the newly elected Pontiff. A Cardinal is then sent to the Loggia of the Benedictions on the façade of St Peter’s where he says: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. I announce to you a great joy! Habemus Papam. We have a Pope!” He then announces the name of the cardinal and the name he has chosen to use as Pope. The new ... |
onto the balcony and therefore onto the stage of world and church history. He may grant his first blessing to the world. Some days later, the new Pope will go down into the foundations of St Peter’s to the tomb of Peter, the first Pope and first bishop of Rome, and pray. Then with all the cardinals, he will process int... |
still has a very small breeding range, limited to Torishima and Minami-kojima (Senkaku Islands), rendering it susceptible to stochastic events and human impacts. Phoebastria albatrus breeds on Torishima (Japan), and Minami-kojima (Senkaku Islands), that are claimed jointly by Japan, mainland China and Chinese Taipei. H... |
been at least nine colonies south of Japan and in the East China Sea (Piatt et al. 2006). Its marine range covers most of the northern Pacific Ocean, but it occurs in highest densities in areas of upwelling along shelf waters of the Pacific Rim, particularly along the coasts of |
Japan, eastern Russia, the Aleutians and Alaska (Piatt et al. 2006, Suryan et al. 2007). During breeding (December - May) it is found in highest densities around Japan. Satellite tracking has indicated that during the post-breeding period, females spend more time offshore of Japan and Russia, while males and juveniles |
spend greater time around the Aleutian Islands, Bering Sea and off the coast of North America (Suryan et al. 2007). Juveniles have been shown to travel twice the distances per day and spend more time within continental shelf habitat than adult birds (Suryan et al. 2008). The species declined dramatically |
during the 19th and 20th centuries owing to exploitation for feathers, and was believed extinct in 1949, but was rediscovered in 1951. The current population is estimated, via direct counts and modelling based on productivity data, to be 2,364 individuals, with 1,922 birds on Torishima and 442 birds on Minami-kojima |
(G.R. Balogh in litt. 2008). In 1954, 25 birds (including at least six pairs) were present on Torishima. Given that there are now c.426 breeding pairs on Torishima (G.R. Balogh in litt. 2008), the species has undergone an enormous increase since its rediscovery and the onset of conservation efforts. In |
addition, in 2010, one nesting pair was observed on Kure Atoll (Hawaii, USA), but was probably female-female and unsuccessful, and one chick was produced on Midway Atoll (M. Naughton pers. comm. 2011). A tsunami which hit Midway Atoll in March 2011, did not impact on the single pair nesting on |
the 2006-2007 breeding season, the global population was estimated to be 2,364 individuals, with 1,922 birds on Torishima and 442 birds on Minami-kojima (Senkaku Islands). This estimate is based on: direct observation of breeding pairs on Torishima; an assumption on numbers of non-breeding birds; an estimate for the Mi... |
that is based upon a 2002 estimate and an assumption of population growth rate (which, together, puts the Minami-kojima population at about 15% of the global population [G.R. Balogh in litt. 2008]). More recently, Brazil (2009) estimates the population in Japan at c.100-10,000 breeding pairs and c.50-1,000 individuals ... |
The population is taken here as likely to number 2,200-2,500 individuals based on these estimates, roughly equating to 1,500-1,700 mature individuals.| |Habitat and Ecology:||Behaviour Phoebastria albatrus is a colonial, annually breeding species, with each breeding cycle lasting about 8 months. Birds begin to arrive a... |
Island in early October. A single egg is laid in late October to late November and incubation lasts 64 to 65 days. Hatching occurs in late December through January. Chicks begin to fledge in late May into June. There is little information on timing of breeding on Minami-kojima. First breeding |
sometimes occurs when birds are five years old, but more commonly when birds are aged six. It forages diurnally and potentially nocturnally, either singly or in groups primarily taking prey by surface-seizing (ACAP 2009). During the breeding season, individuals nesting off Japan forage over the continental shelf (Kiyot... |
2008). Habitat Breeding Historically, it preferred level, open, areas adjacent to tall clumps of the grass Miscanthus sinensis for nesting. Diet It feeds mainly on squid, but also takes shrimp, fish, flying fish eggs and other crustaceans (ACAP 2009). It has been recorded following ships to feed on scraps and |
fish offal.| |Major Threat(s):||Its historical decline was caused by exploitation. Today, the key threats are the instability of soil on its main breeding site (Torishima), the threat of mortality and habitat loss from the active volcano on Torishima, and mortality caused by fisheries. Torishima is also vulnerable to o... |
disasters, such as typhoons. Introduced predators are a potential threat at colonies. Environmental contaminants at sea (oil based compounds) may also be a threat (G.R. Balogh in litt. 2008). Threats at sea (fisheries, oil pollution) are exacerbated by the fact that birds concentrate into predictable hotspots (Piatt et... |
Modelling work has showed that even a small increase in low level chronic mortality (such as fisheries bycatch) has more of an impact on population growth rates than stochastic and theoretically catastrophic events, such as volcanic eruptions (Finkelstein et al. 2010). Phoebastria albatrus has the greatest potential ov... |
that occur in the shallower waters along continental shelf break and slope regions, e.g., sablefish and Pacific halibut longline fisheries off the coasts of Alaska and British Columbia. Although, overlap between the distribution of birds and fishery effort does not mean that interactions between birds and boats necessa... |
albatrus are known to have been killed in U.S. and Russian longline fisheries for Pacific cod and Pacific halibut. In addition, birds on Torishima have been observed with hooks in their mouths of the style used in Japanese fisheries near the island (ACAP 2009).| Conservation Actions Underway It is legally |
protected in Japan, Canada and the USA. A draft recovery plan has been developed (USFWS 2005). Mitigation measures have been established in the Alaska demersal longline fishery and in the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery (NOAA 2008). Streamer lines (both heavy weight lines for large boats and lightweight lines for... |
vessels) have been designed to keep birds from longline hooks as they are set, and these are being distributed free to the Alaskan longline fleet (USFWS 2005), though they are not deployed in near-shore waters. In 2006, the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission passed a measure which requires large |
tuna and swordfish longline vessels (>24m long) to use a combination of two seabird bycatch mitigation measures when fishing north of 23 degrees North. Torishima has been established as a National Wildlife Protection Area. In 1981-1982, native plants were transplanted into the Torishima nesting colony in order to stabi... |
nesting habitat and the nest structures. This has enhanced breeding success, with over 60% of eggs now resulting in fledged young. Decoys have been used to attract birds to nest at another site on Torishima since 1993 and the first pair started breeding at this new site in November 1995. |
The number of chicks fledged from this new colony has increased from one chick in 2004; four chicks in 2005; 13 chicks in 2006; 16 chicks in 2007. In October-November 2007, 35 eggs were laid at this new site (Sato 2009). In 2007, the Japanese government approved a project to |
translocate chicks from Torishima to Mukojima, 300 km away. All ten chicks of the first translocations in March 2008 fledged (Jacobs 2009). If successful, this project will translocate at least ten chicks per year for five years. Conservation Actions Proposed Continue to promote measures designed to protect this specie... |
becoming hooked or entangled by commercial fishing gear. Re-establish birds within historic range as insurance against natural disasters on primary breeding colony. Promote conservation measures for the Minami-kojima population. Continue research into the at-sea distribution and marine habitat use through satellite tel... |
Ahh, the pincer grasp! It's an important evolutionary milestone that nobody knows about until they become parents. (Why should opposable thumbs get all the attention?) The ability to pick up small objects using your thumb and pointer finger usually kicks in around 9 months -- and, the bonus for parents is that it allow... |
selves. So put down the spoon and serve up these great finger food ideas. Don't Expect Your Baby to Chew "Before age one, babies gum their food rather than chew it," says Jennifer Shu, M.D., coauthor of the book Food Fights from the American Academy of Pediatrics. So serve up tiny bites -- about the size of a pea or |
your pinky fingernail -- in case your tot swallows it whole. Common choking hazard to avoid: Hot dogs and other sausages, hard or gummy candy, chewing gum, all nuts, whole grapes and cherry tomatoes, raisins and any dried-fruit pieces, popcorn, and seeds and gobs of peanut (or other nut) butter. But any food can pose a... |
The First Liberation Day in the DP Camps Livik's opinion was clear: There was no reason to celebrate or to put on a festive face, since "joy has been silenced in the Jewish heart, our words are still full of sorrow"... Shmuel Grinberg, in contrast, agreed that She'arit Hapleta would soon be marking Liberation Day... bu... |
historical perspective of what was happening. Even though anti-Semitism had not disappeared and Jewish suffering had not ended, "we neither have nor want to weaken the great historic truth, the great struggle against the monster of human oppression, for our spiritual and moral liberation". Leo Schwarz, who took part in... |
the liberation be commemorated today as a day of mourning or a day of thanksgiving. There was little disagreement about the memory of the murdered martyrs... concerning celebrations of Liberation Day there were differences among groups within She'arit Hapleta, but the victors were those whose psychology had already bee... |
the Central Committee supported the declaration of "a memorial day combined with the liberation, which must express our grief and bitterness over the great tragedy of European Jewry, and simultaneously be a day of thanksgiving, which will be celebrated as a national symbol and will emphasize that the Jewish people stil... |
Adar as Liberation Day (15th May in 1946), as a memorial and victory day. From: Mankovitz, Ze'ev, Ideology and Politics Among She'arit Hapleta in the American Zone of Occupation in Germany 1945-1946, Ph.D. thesis, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1987, pp. 279-280 (Hebrew). Source: Yad Vashem |
DEPUTIES OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE DEPUTIES OF THE JEWISH PEOPLE, representatives of Jewish communities in Russia to the government during the reign of *Alexander I (1801–25). After parts of *Poland-Lithuania |
had been annexed by Russia, the large communities sent shtadlanim to the court at St. Petersburg to represent them and defend their rights. Most of the shtadlanim were merchants or |
contractors who visited the city on business. When a committee was set up to frame a "Jewish constitution" in 1802–04 it was joined by several government-appointed Jewish advisers (N.N. *Notkin, |
A. *Peretz, and J.L. *Nevakhovich). The government also requested some important communities to send representatives to the committee. Together they tried to influence the committee in favor of Jewish rights. |
In 1807 the government appointed a "Jewish committee" to implement the inimical "Jewish constitution" of 1804 and proposed that the communities elect deputies to represent the Jews before the provincial |
governors. The memoranda of these deputies were referred to the "Jewish committee" in St. Petersburg and were influential in obtaining a temporary halt to the expulsion of Jews from the |
villages. It was also proposed to abolish the prohibition on the lease and sale of alcohol by Jews. During the invasion by Napoleon two "deputies of the Jewish people," Zundel |
Sonnenberg and Eliezer Dillon, accompanied Alexander's military headquarters in 1812–13, and acted as liaison between the czar and the large Jewish population in the combat area. They regularly presented memoranda |
and petitions concerning Jewish affairs to the court and transmitted its instructions to the Jewish communities. After the war an attempt was made to convert the committee of deputies into |
a permanent institution. The Jewish communities were requested to send representatives to St. Petersburg to maintain permanent contact with the ministries of religious affairs and popular education. On August 19, |
1818, electors from the 12 districts (gubernia) of the *Pale of Settlement convened and elected three deputies, Zundel Sonnenberg, Beinush Lapkovski, and Michael Eisenstadt, and three deputy representatives. In order |
to raise funds to cover their expenses, which probably also included furnishing bribes, the assembly resolved that every Jew was to donate the silver headpiece of his prayer shawl. The |
change in Alexander's policy toward the Jews at the end of his reign reduced the importance and status of the deputies. Sonnenberg was dismissed because of "impudence toward the authorities." |
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