public_ai_evidence/report.md

Public-source UMA AI demonstration

This demonstration starts from a label-free registry of 64 fixed public transactions, downloads or replays canonical Polygon and Ethereum receipts, decodes the UMA lifecycle, derives decision-time features and economic outcomes, and runs the registered logistic regression plus four simple baselines. It never reads a curated ledger.

• Chronological split: 44 train / 10 validation / 10 test.
• Test AUC: 0.375; Brier: 0.414; ECE-5: 0.374.
• Automated Accept/Challenge coverage: 0.400.
• Outcome: later UMA protocol resolution only, not independent factual truth.
• Configured rewards, capital at risk, gross payout and realized challenge payoff remain distinct.

Live public reproduction:

python scripts/applications/trustworthy_ai/run_public_source_demo.py

Deterministic replay after freezing the public receipts:

python scripts/applications/trustworthy_ai/run_public_source_demo.py --offline