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HareSkip-calibration

Extension logic: S:\30_OriginalApps\16_HareSkip\forge-neo-Anima-HareSkip\hareskip\{skip_pattern,probability_models}.py
Trajectory: S:\30_OriginalApps\16_HareSkip\experiment-HareSkip\analysis-phase1-02\outputs\tables\master_long.csv
Exclusion sets: S:\30_OriginalApps\16_HareSkip\experiment-HareSkip\patterns\stage2-interaction-patterns.txt, S:\30_OriginalApps\16_HareSkip\experiment-HareSkip\patterns\layer1-single-skip-sweep-30steps.txt

Configuration

item	value
num_steps	30
probability model	`sigmoid_band_v0.1`
skip_window	(0.05, 0.95) (extension default)
zone_boundaries	(-4.0, 0.0) (extension default)
zone max streak	danger 1 / middle 2 / safe 3
skip_seed	`sha256(f"{image_seed}
image seeds	3000995193, 2455776111, 2767019676

Verification

Two independent implementations were compared on every candidate drawn (not just the 9 selected ones):

self_generate in this script -- written from scratch by reading the extension source (probability formula, window eligibility, z proxy, zone/streak trimming with the (p, z, index) argmin flip rule, and the RNG consumption order: rng.random() is drawn only for eligible steps, because in _draw_pattern the call sits inside the if eligible conditional expression).
hareskip.skip_pattern.generate_skip_pattern imported directly from the extension repo (sys.path.insert, read-only; nothing installed or modified).

Compared per candidate: params, z_by_step, p_by_step, the boolean skip vector and skipped_steps. Any mismatch aborts the script.

Candidates cross-checked: 10 -- all identical.
derive_skip_seed also cross-checked per candidate (SHA-256, not hash()).
The extension's own suite tests/test_skip_pattern.py was run against the same modules: 42 passed (including the pinned literal derive_skip_seed(12345, 0) == 3695650839502921262).

Validation of the final 10 patterns: no problems (all steps in 2..30, no step 1, no duplicates, no collision with stage-1/2, pairwise Hamming >= 3 among the 9 simulated)

z(step) correspondence

master_long.csv columns z / tnow follow mapA (traj_step = skip_step - 1), the default in analysis-phase1-02/REPORT.md. For the ERSDE-Beta sampler all 15 conditions carry identical z/tnow for every skip_step 2..30 (verified: zero conflicting values). Each recorded z reproduces logsnr_proxy_from_t_now(tnow) to < 1e-9, so the measured tnow column is fed straight into the extension as t_now_by_step.

Step 1 has no measured trajectory row (skip_step starts at 2); its z is extrapolated linearly backwards to z = -14.8536. It is irrelevant to the result: idx 0 has progress 0.0 < 0.05 so it is outside the skip window, and at inference the first call has no residual, so it is never skipped.

step	t_now	z	zone
1 (extrap.)	0.999405273	-14.85363	danger
2	0.997992039	-12.41725	danger
3	0.993243277	-9.98088	danger
4	0.986301303	-8.55332	danger
5	0.978079259	-7.59631	danger
6	0.967707634	-6.80020	danger
7	0.955337703	-6.12587	danger
8	0.941548824	-5.55867	danger
9	0.925727427	-5.04568	danger
10	0.907582879	-4.56895	danger
11	0.887755156	-4.13603	danger
12	0.865482271	-3.72318	middle
13	0.840949059	-3.33061	middle
14	0.813186824	-2.94170	middle
15	0.783667684	-2.57434	middle
16	0.750749290	-2.20523	middle
17	0.713836491	-1.82818	middle
18	0.674917459	-1.46102	middle
19	0.630938530	-1.07249	middle
20	0.584249079	-0.68048	middle
21	0.533505082	-0.26844	middle
22	0.479591817	0.16336	safe
23	0.420863301	0.63846	safe
24	0.360182405	1.14915	safe
25	0.298076898	1.71294	safe
26	0.233108103	2.38169	safe
27	0.170212761	3.16824	safe
28	0.113678373	4.10741	safe
29	0.060460649	5.48679	safe
30	0.020710060	7.71242	safe

Patterns

#	a	image_seed	offset	skip_seed	n	skipped steps	danger	middle	safe	max streak	E[skips]
1	0.3	3000995193	0	4101374585893130546	5	15, 17, 23, 24, 25	0	2	3	3	7.09
2	0.3	2455776111	0	4945151993939216742	5	19, 22, 24, 25, 27	0	1	4	2	7.09
3	0.3	2767019676	0	9040233029051876849	7	12, 18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 27	0	3	4	3	7.09
4	0.6	3000995193	0	4101374585893130546	7	11, 17, 18, 20, 23, 24, 25	1	3	3	3	11.15
5	0.6	2455776111	0	4945151993939216742	8	13, 15, 17, 19, 23, 24, 25, 27	0	4	4	3	11.15
6	0.6	3000995193	1	5743156414877519378	10	9, 12, 13, 15, 17, 18, 22, 23, 26, 28	1	5	4	2	11.15
7	0.9	3000995193	0	4101374585893130546	5	9, 12, 23, 24, 25	1	1	3	3	15.94
8	0.9	2455776111	0	4945151993939216742	9	7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 23, 24, 25, 27	2	3	4	3	15.94
9	0.9	2767019676	0	9040233029051876849	8	6, 8, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 27	2	2	4	3	15.94
10	0.9	2767019676	0	9040233029051876849	10	3, 5, 6, 8, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25, 27 (+manual 3, 5)	4	2	4	3	15.94

Rows 1-3: a=0.3. Rows 4-6: a=0.6. Rows 7-9: a=0.9. Row 10: extreme-stress.

Row 10 (extreme stress)

Row 10 is not a plain simulator output. It takes the realised a=0.9 pattern of row 9 (image_seed %d, offset %d) and manually adds steps 3 and 5. Those two steps sit in the danger band (z = -9.98 and -7.60, both z < -4), which the probability model almost never selects and where the danger-zone streak cap is 1 -- so this row is a deliberate out-of-sample probe of the prediction formula's limit, not a reachable extension output. Its max streak (3) may therefore exceed what the extension would emit.

Output grammar

stage3-holdout-patterns.txt -- 10 lines, one pattern per line, comma-separated 1-based step numbers in ascending order; same grammar as stage2-interaction-patterns.txt and the stage-1 sweep file.