Datasets:

SZLHOLDINGS
/

agi-forecast-source

	---
	license: apache-2.0
	language:
	- en
	tags:
	- formal-verification
	- lean4
	- mathlib
	- dsse
	- governance
	- agentic-ai
	- arxiv:2401.05566
	- arxiv:2407.11214
	- series-a
	- anthropic
	- doctrine-v6
	- rae-1
	- agi-forecast
	- putnam
	- safety-gauge
	- source
	- dataset
	pretty_name: "AGI Forecast Source — Safety Gauge Data"
	size_categories:
	- n<1K
	task_categories:
	- other
	ecosystem-stage: generated-mirror
	---

	# AGI Forecast Source — Safety Gauge Data

	[![DOI](https://zenodo.org/badge/DOI/10.5281/zenodo.20434276.svg)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276)
	[![Lean Kernel Green](https://img.shields.io/badge/Lean_4.13-kernel--green-22c55e?style=flat-square)](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean/pull/106)
	[![Sorries](https://img.shields.io/badge/sorries-5-blue?style=flat-square)](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean/pull/109)
	[![SLSA L1](https://img.shields.io/badge/SLSA-L1_SBOM+DCO-blue?style=flat-square)](https://slsa.dev)
	[![DSSE](https://img.shields.io/badge/DSSE-PAE_v1-22c55e?style=flat-square)](https://slsa.dev/dsse)
	[![RAE-1](https://img.shields.io/badge/RAE--1-v1.0-D97757?style=flat-square)](https://huggingface.co/datasets/SZLHOLDINGS/test-results)
	[![MCP](https://img.shields.io/badge/MCP-server_live-ff6b35?style=flat-square)](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/mcp-receipts-server)
	[![License](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-Apache_2.0-blue?style=flat-square)](https://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0)

	> Doctrine v6. No marketing. Every number resolves to a CI log, a Lean proof, or a Zenodo DOI.

	Source data for the AGI safety forecast gauges. Contains Putnam 2025 coverage data: 10/12 problems have Lean 4 structure landed. 0/12 fully Lean-discharged (27 named sorries). 4 GREEN (A1/A5/B4/B6), 2 TRACKED (A2/B1), 6 staged-advisory (NOT proven). Runtime score via PR #51 is judge-consensus match, NOT Lean proof closure, pac-bayes bound calculations, and gauge calibration records.

	Data feeds the [agi-forecast-viewer space](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer) and the [agi-forecast-platform static site](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-platform). All-12 formalization is in progress in [lutar-lean](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean).

	## State (live 2026-05-30)

	\| Metric \| Value \| Verify \|
	\|---\|---\|---\|
	\| Lean declarations \| 217 \| [lutar-lean@7ef33a6](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean/commit/7ef33a6) \|
	\| Lean axioms \| 12 \| A1–A18 honest gap \|
	\| Lean sorries \| 5 (was 7) \| [PR #109 discharged P6+P7](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean/pull/109) \|
	\| Anchor formulas \| 35/35 as gates \| [a11oy#114](https://github.com/szl-holdings/a11oy/pull/114) \|
	\| Kernel green \| Mathlib 4.13.0 d7317655 \| [PR #106](https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean/pull/106) \|
	\| HF Spaces \| 24 \| [SZLHOLDINGS org](https://huggingface.co/SZLHOLDINGS) \|
	\| HF Datasets \| 29 \| [SZLHOLDINGS org](https://huggingface.co/SZLHOLDINGS) \|
	\| Zenodo DOIs \| 7 \| [10.5281/zenodo.20434276](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276) \|
	\| RAE-1 protocol \| merged \| [a11oy#122](https://github.com/szl-holdings/a11oy/pull/122) \|
	\| Putnam 2025 coverage \| 10/12 structure · 0/12 Lean-discharged (27 named sorries) · 4 GREEN (A1/A5/B4/B6) · 2 TRACKED (A2/B1) · 6 staged-advisory (NOT proven) \| [agi-forecast PR #51](https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast/pull/51) \|

	## Cross-references

	- Thesis: [Ouroboros Thesis v18](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276) · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20434276
	- Lean companion: [lutar-lean](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20424992) · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20424992
	- Receipts: [MCP server](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/mcp-receipts-server) · szlholdings-mcp-receipts-server.hf.space
	- Test results: [SZLHOLDINGS/test-results](https://huggingface.co/datasets/SZLHOLDINGS/test-results)
	- Catalog: [SZLHOLDINGS on HuggingFace](https://huggingface.co/SZLHOLDINGS)
	- Source: [agi-forecast-source on GitHub](https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast)


	## Provenance

	\| Field \| Value \|
	\|---\|---\|
	\| Ecosystem stage \| `generated-mirror` \|
	\| Ecosystem stage matrix \| [SZLHOLDINGS/szl-anatomy → Stage Matrix](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/szl-anatomy) \|
	\| MCP gateway \| [szlholdings-mcp-receipts-server.hf.space](https://szlholdings-mcp-receipts-server.hf.space) \|
	\| Doctrine \| v6 — no marketing language, every number resolves to a CI log or Zenodo DOI \|
	\| Thesis DOI \| [10.5281/zenodo.20434276](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276) \|
	\| Lean companion DOI \| [10.5281/zenodo.20424992](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20424992) \|
	\| Author \| Stephen Paul Lutar Jr. · [ORCID 0009-0001-0110-4173](https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0110-4173) \|
	---

	SZLHOLDINGS · 27 Spaces / 31 datasets / 2 models · Lean 217 decl / 12 axioms / 5 sorries · 35/35 gates · 7 Zenodo DOIs · [HF org](https://huggingface.co/SZLHOLDINGS) · [MCP gateway](https://szlholdings-mcp-receipts-server.hf.space) · [Stage matrix](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/szl-anatomy) · Doctrine v6