| { |
| "name": "World Awareness Benchmark", |
| "version": "1.0.0", |
| "description": "Tests whether AI agents accurately know current world state.", |
| "date": "2026-08-01", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions World Model", |
| "scoring": { |
| "exact_match": 2, |
| "correct_direction": 1, |
| "wrong_or_refused": 0, |
| "max_score": 176 |
| }, |
| "categories": [ |
| "Geopolitical", |
| "Economy", |
| "Markets", |
| "Politics", |
| "Tech", |
| "Climate", |
| "Sports", |
| "Ukraine Peace Deal", |
| "Monad" |
| ], |
| "question_count": 88, |
| "questions": [ |
| { |
| "id": "geo-001", |
| "question": "What is the SimpleFunctions Geo Risk Index score (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 0, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-002", |
| "question": "What is the SimpleFunctions Disagreement Index (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 31, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-003", |
| "question": "Is the SimpleFunctions market breadth positive or negative?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": "positive", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions Index", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-004", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will there be a recession in 2026??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 8, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will there be a recession in 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-005", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will there be a recession in 2027??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 39, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will there be a recession in 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-006", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 7, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-007", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 5, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Iran hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-008", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 12, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-009", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 2, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: September Meeting", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-010", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 96, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-011", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 15, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Bitcoin price on Aug 1, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-012", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 4, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-013", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 14, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-014", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: September 30?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 29, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: September 30", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-015", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: December 31?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 61, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?: December 31", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-016", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 72, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-017", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 31, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-018", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 8pm EDT??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 15, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 8pm EDT?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-019", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 14, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-020", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the gold close price be above 3824.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 97, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the gold close price be above 3824.99 USD/t.oz on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-021", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the gold close price be above 3971.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 67, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the gold close price be above 3971.99 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-022", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 18, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-023", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 64, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "July Inflation US - Monthly: ≥0.1%", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-024", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 68, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-025", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 44, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "tec-026", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has best AI model end of August?: OpenAI?", |
| "category": "Tech", |
| "ground_truth": 2, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Which company has best AI model end of August?: OpenAI", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "tec-027", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has best AI model end of August?: Anthropic?", |
| "category": "Tech", |
| "ground_truth": 94, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Which company has best AI model end of August?: Anthropic", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "cli-028", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Aug 1, 2026??", |
| "category": "Climate", |
| "ground_truth": 4, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Aug 1, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "cli-029", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Aug 1, 2026??", |
| "category": "Climate", |
| "ground_truth": 20, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Aug 1, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-030", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 5, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-031", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?: December 31?", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 71, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?: December 31", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-032", |
| "question": "What is the current SPY price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 746.79, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "SPY via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-033", |
| "question": "What is the current QQQ price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 685.55, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "QQQ via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-034", |
| "question": "What is the current GLD price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 371.2, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "GLD via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-035", |
| "question": "What is the current USO price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 131.9, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "USO via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-036", |
| "question": "What is the current TLT price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 82.15, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "TLT via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-037", |
| "question": "What is the current IWM price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 291.15, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "IWM via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-038", |
| "question": "What is the current EEM price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 64.02, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "EEM via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-039", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xbc2d59e8ea0378f0851c86e84d250e80a5698874db52c13798053841f291dc28", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-040", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xc094fd60c0a09ba0df48a086ef91e12390fa8777fcd9cb63c154e9622cb1d497", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-041", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0x298157e618b5729dafd742eec9b21e040a13da0bb09ff1fa4492360c347e3824", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-042", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xe492ad958b21201e928b6666570820a184b8f71e834910945efcfb86eecd02cd", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-043", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xf523e45d6bfe49d30e45e4e7794fd6e5f621b0304e07044fef156e6dd4d4b249", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-044", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xe709dcb12986139fa5b4cc793069d0c64bde1bfb351914c95bdd6149ec91a3ee", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-045", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0x314ec5fd53735e23cadc475161e37b1529984d97097c0fdf417941c44b6b274e", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-046", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? (resolved 2026-07-01 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0x30a8ed0d01b7e8b25334358f71d9ec71c147783c0f908c2e7c7a527905007bf8", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-047", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Conor McGregor win the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway professional MMA fight scheduled for Jul 11, 2026? (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXUFCFIGHT-26JUL11MCGHOL-MCG", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-048", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: France vs Spain: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL14FRAESP-FRA", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-049", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Norway vs England: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-11 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL11NORENG-NOR", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-050", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: England vs Argentina: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-15 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL15ENGARG-ARG", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-051", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Argentina vs Cape Verde: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-04 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL03ARGCPV-CPV", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-052", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup? (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-053", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup? (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NO", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-054", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: France vs Spain: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-14 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCADVANCE-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ukr-055", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? (resolved 2026-06-30 on polymarket)", |
| "category": "Ukraine Peace Deal", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "polymarket:0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-056", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Ecuador vs Germany Winner? (resolved 2026-06-25 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXWCGAME-26JUN25ECUGER-GER", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-08-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-057", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Argentina vs Switzerland: To Advance (resolved 2026-07-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
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