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<|im_start|>user ""It is essential for a man to strive with all his heart, and to understand that it is difficult even to reach the average if he does not have the intention of surpassing others in whatever he does." —Budo Shoshinshu "In important matters, a 'strong' effort usually results in only mediocre results. Whe...
<|im_start|>user "I think we should stop talking about utility functions. In the context of ethics for humans, anyway. In practice I find utility functions to be, at best, an occasionally useful metaphor for discussions about ethics but, at worst, an idea that some people start taking too seriously and which actively m...
<|im_start|>user "So, the Center for Applied Rationality just ran another workshop, which Anna kindly invited me to. Below I've written down some thoughts on it, both to organize those thoughts and because it seems other LWers might want to read them. I'll also invite other participants to write down their thoughts in ...
<|im_start|>user "So perhaps you're reading all this, and asking: "Yes, but what does this have to do with reductionism?" Partially, it's a matter of leaving a line of retreat. It's not easy to take something important apart into components, when you're convinced that this removes magic from the world, unweaves the rai...
<|im_start|>user "You can see the full voting results here: 1000+ karma voters (All voters)The 2019 Review votes are in!This year, 88 voters participated, evaluating 116 posts. (Of those voters, 61 had 1000+ karma, and will be weighted more highly in the moderation team's decision of what to include in the Best of 2019...
<|im_start|>user "Let’s start with a stylized fact: almost every cell type in the human body is removed and replaced on a regular basis. The frequency of this turnover ranges from a few days (for many immune cells and cells in the gastrointestinal lining) to ten years (for fat, heart, and skeleton cells). Only a handfu...
<|im_start|>user "This is a story about an odd fact about capital project decision making in engineering I noticed and how it might be related to cognitive biases Background Although I don't work in the field, I was trained as a chemical engineer. A chemical engineer's job is a little different than you might imagine. ...
<|im_start|>user "Posted as part of the AI Alignment Forum sequence on Value Learning.Rohin’s note: In this post (original here), Paul Christiano analyzes the ambitious value learning approach. He considers a more general view of ambitious value learning where you infer preferences more generally (i.e. not necessarily ...
<|im_start|>user "Reminder of the rules of Stag Hunt:Each player chooses to hunt either Rabbit or StagPlayers who choose Rabbit receive a small reward regardless of what everyone else choosesPlayers who choose Stag receive a large reward if-and-only-if everyone else chooses Stag. If even a single player chooses Rabbit,...
<|im_start|>user "Once upon a time, Seth Roberts took a European vacation and found that he started losing weight while drinking unfamiliar-tasting caloric fruit juices. Now suppose Roberts had not known, and never did know, anything about metabolic set points or flavor-calorie associations—all this high-falutin' scien...
<|im_start|>user "So you're thinking, "April 1st... isn't that already supposed to be April Fool's Day?" Yes—and that will provide the ideal cover for celebrating Amazing Breakthrough Day. As I argued in "The Beauty of Settled Science", it is a major problem that media coverage of science focuses only on breaking news....
<|im_start|>user "Sometimes when I talk to people about how to be a strong rationalist, I get the impression they are making a specific error.The error looks like this: they think that good thinking is good thinking irrespective of environment. If they just learn to avoid rationalization and setting the bottom-line fir...
<|im_start|>user "Megaproject management is a new-ish subfield of project management. Originally considered to be the special case of project management where the budgets were enormous (billions of dollars), it is developing into a separate specialization because of the high complexity and tradition of failure among su...
<|im_start|>user "When I read a non-fiction book, I want to know if it’s correct before I commit anything it says to memory. But if I already knew the truth status of all of its claims, I wouldn’t need to read it. Epistemic Spot Checks are an attempt to square that circle by sampling a book’s claims and determining the...
<|im_start|>user "This post is an exercise in "identifying with the algorithm." I'm a big fan of the probabilistic method and randomized algorithms, so my biases will show.How do human beings produce knowledge? When we describe rational thought processes, we tend to think of them as essentially deterministic, deliberat...
<|im_start|>user "I'm not sure if this post is very on-topic for LW, but we have many folks who understand Haskell and many folks who are interested in Löb's theorem (see e.g. Eliezer's picture proof), so I thought why not post it here? If no one likes it, I can always just move it to my own blog. A few days ago I stum...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic status: Practising thinking aloud. There might be an important question here, but I might be making a simple error.There is a lot of variance in general competence between species. Here is the standard Bostrom/Yudkowsky graph to display this notion.There's a sense that while some mice are mo...
<|im_start|>user "When I found Less Wrong and started reading, when I made my first post, when I went to my first meetup…. It was a little like coming home. And mostly it wasn’t. Mostly I felt a lot more out of place than I have in, say, church youth groups. It was hard to pinpoint the difference, but as far as I can t...
<|im_start|>user "Many AI safety researchers these days are not aiming for a full solution to AI safety (e.g., the classic Friendly AI), but just trying to find good enough partial solutions that would buy time for or otherwise help improve global coordination on AI research (which in turn would buy more time for AI sa...
<|im_start|>user "Hello, player character, and welcome to the Mazes of Menace! Your goal is to get to the center and defeat the Big Bad. You know this is your goal because you received a message from a very authoritative source that said so. Alas, the maze is filled with guards and traps that make every step dangerous....
<|im_start|>user "AlphaGo Zero uses 4 TPUs, is built entirely out of neural nets with no handcrafted features, doesn't pretrain against expert games or anything else human, reaches a superhuman level after 3 days of self-play, and is the strongest version of AlphaGo yet.The architecture has been simplified. Previous Al...
<|im_start|>user "As Tom slips on the ice puddle, his arm automatically pulls back to slap the ground. He’s been taking Jiu-Jitsu for only a month, but, already, he’s practiced falling hundreds of times. Tom’s training keeps him from getting hurt. By contrast, Sandra is in her second year of university mathematics. She...
<|im_start|>user "At least three people have died playing online games for days without rest. People have lost their spouses, jobs, and children to World of Warcraft. If people have the right to play video games - and it's hard to imagine a more fundamental right - then the market is going to respond by supplying the m...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: What Would You Do Without Morality?, Something to Protect Once, discussing "horrible job interview questions" to ask candidates for a Friendly AI project, I suggested the following: Would you kill babies if it was inherently the right thing to do? Yes [] No [] If "no", under what circumst...
<|im_start|>user "Churchill—when he wasn’t busy leading the fight against the Nazis—had many hobbies. He wrote more than a dozen volumes of history, painted over 500 pictures, and completed one novel (“to relax”). He tried his hand at landscaping and bricklaying, and was “a championship caliber polo player.” But did yo...
<|im_start|>user "Related and required reading in life (ANOIEAEIB): The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics Epistemic Status: Trying to be minimally judgmental Spoiler Alert: Contains minor mostly harmless spoiler for The Good Place, which is the best show currently on television. The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethic...
<|im_start|>user "If you're interested in learning rationality, where should you start? Remember, instrumental rationality is about making decisions that get you what you want -- surely there are some lessons that will help you more than others. You might start with the most famous ones, which tend to be the ones popul...
<|im_start|>user ""This plucked chicken has two legs and no feathers—therefore, by definition, it is a human!" When people argue definitions, they usually start with some visible, known, or at least widely believed set of characteristics; then pull out a dictionary, and point out that these characteristics fit the dict...
<|im_start|>user "A few times over the past few years newcomers to the community have asked me how they can start engaging with the community, and one of the lowest-cost ways to engage has historically been chatrooms. I know that there has been a pretty significant proliferation of LW/Rationality/EA-related chat-server...
<|im_start|>user "(cross posted on my roam blog)There's an old Paul Graham Essay, "Keep Your Identity Small". It's short so it's worth it to read the whole thing right now if you've never seen it. The yisbifiefyb ("yeah it's short but i'm functionally illiterate except for your blog") is roughly "When something becomes...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: Righting a Wrong Question, Zombies! Zombies?, A Premature Word on AI, On Doing the ImpossibleThere is a subproblem of Friendly AI which is so scary that I usually don't talk about it, because very few would-be AI designers would react to it appropriately—that is, by saying, "Wow, that doe...
<|im_start|>user "It's that time of year again.If you are reading this post and self-identify as a LWer, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doesn't matter if you're a lurker. Take the survey.This year's census contains a "main surv...
<|im_start|>user "[Epistemic Status: talking in the language of metaphorical soul and mysticism.]Previously:Visions of Summer SolsticeObligatory link to The Value and Danger of Ritual for people just tuning in.June 23rd, the Bay community journeyed out to the edge of the world to celebrate the longest day of the year. ...
<|im_start|>user "(This post was co-authored by me (Cody Wild), Tessa Alexanian and Ray Arnold)TL;DR We have 2 days - until July 1 - to increase monthly donations by $2260 or raise $27,000 in lump sum , or else REACH will lose its current location and go on indefinite hiatusDo you care about the Berkeley REACH staying ...
<|im_start|>user "Luna had too many Calls to Adventure. If there was an author writing Luna's life, Luna would file a complaint. Luna had three magical artifacts of incredible power and at least two of them were maps. What kind of author gives her hero two magical maps? It's redundant. "Are you a map of 10th century We...
<|im_start|>user "I want to know what are good rationality exercises.I was just on a call with Liron and PhilH, hanging out after the weekly LessWrong weekend event, and we discussed exercises that could happen on LessWrong.Here is the list we generated:Thinking PhysicsFermi EstimatesProject EulerCalibration TrainingBa...
<|im_start|>user "There has been considerable debate over whether development in AI will experience a discontinuity, or whether it will follow a more continuous growth curve. Given the lack of consensus and the confusing, diverse terminology, it is natural to hypothesize that much of the debate is due to simple misunde...
<|im_start|>user "The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) is focused on reducing risks of astronomical suffering, or s-risks, from transformative artificial intelligence (TAI). S-risks are defined as risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering[1]. As has been discussed elsewhere, s-risks might arise by malevolence,...
<|im_start|>user "Posts made by members of the LessWrong 2.0 team are typically made from the perspective of the individual - even when they are writing in their capacity as LessWrong team members. My (Ruby’s) model of the team’s reason for this is that even if there are collective decisions, there are no collective mo...
<|im_start|>user ""Mirror neurons" are neurons that are active both when performing an action and observing the same action—for example, a neuron that fires when you hold up a finger or see someone else holding up a finger. Such neurons have been directly recorded in primates, and consistent neuroimaging evidence has b...
<|im_start|>user "I've previously dwelt in considerable length upon forms of rationalization whereby our beliefs appear to match the evidence much more strongly than they actually do. And I'm not overemphasizing the point, either. If we could beat this fundamental metabias and see what every hypothesis really predicted...
<|im_start|>user "If funding were available, the Centre for Effective Altruism would consider hiring someone to work closely with Prof Nick Bostrom to provide anything and everything he needs to be more productive. Bostrom is obviously the Director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, and author of...
<|im_start|>user "Click here to begin voting. Click here for a general overview of the 2019 review.We are now in the final stretches of the LessWrong 2019 Review. We’ve spent 2 weeks nominating posts, and a month reviewing them. And today, we begin the final vote!A recap on the major goals of the Review: First, it is a...
<|im_start|>user "I may be reinventing a known thing in child development or psychology here, but bear with me. The simplest games I see babies play — games simple enough that cats and dogs can play them too — are what I’d call “circle games.” Think of the game of “fetch”. I throw the ball, Rover runs and brings it bac...
<|im_start|>user "From Robyn Dawes’s Rational Choice in an Uncertain World:In fact, this post-hoc fitting of evidence to hypothesis was involved in a most grievous chapter in United States history: the internment of Japanese-Americans at the beginning of the Second World War. When California governor Earl Warren testif...
<|im_start|>user "Yesterday I spoke of the Mind Projection Fallacy, giving the example of the alien monster who carries off a girl in a torn dress for intended ravishing—a mistake which I imputed to the artist's tendency to think that a woman's sexiness is a property of the woman herself, woman.sexiness, rather than so...
<|im_start|>user "Photo by Danielle Cerullo on UnsplashOver the course of nearly two decades in the workplace, I’ve seen the inside of dozens of organizations and teams as an employee, consultant, or friendly collaborator. With rare exceptions, it seems, important decisions get made one of two ways. If an organization ...
<|im_start|>user "r/Fitness does a weekly "Moronic Monday", a judgment-free thread where people can ask questions that they would ordinarily feel embarrassed for not knowing the answer to. I thought this seemed like a useful thing to have here - after all, the concepts discussed on LessWrong are probably at least a lit...
<|im_start|>user "I've observed that consuming certain kinds of media make me smarter and other kinds of media makes me dumber. Makes me dumber: Videogames YouTube News Makes me smarter: Books Audiobooks Direct messaging apps By "smarter" I mean it holistically causes me to behave in a way that increases my overall rat...
<|im_start|>user "If you ever find yourself saying, "Even if Hypothesis H is true, it doesn't have any decision-relevant implications," you are rationalizing! The fact that H is interesting enough for you to be considering the question at all (it's not some arbitrary trivium like the 1923th binary digit of π, or the lo...
<|im_start|>user "As I’ve mentioned, I think the tax code could be improved. In a departure from my usual style, this post fleshes out some fairness-based arguments for one of my favorite changes. (I think that this proposal, and many of the arguments in favor, is old. Wikipedia quotes Joseph Stieglitz making the basic...
<|im_start|>user "How much would you pay to see a typical movie? How much would you pay to see it 100 times? How much would you pay to save a random stranger’s life? How much would you pay to save 100 strangers? If you are like a typical human being, your answers to both sets of questions probably exhibit failures to a...
<|im_start|>user "When I showed up at the Singularity Institute, I was surprised to find that 30-60 papers' worth of material was lying around in blog posts, mailing list discussions, and people's heads — but it had never been written up in clear, well-referenced academic articles. Why is this so? Writing such articles...
<|im_start|>user "(Original post on the polyphasic sleep experiment here.)Welp, this got a little messy. The main culprit was Burning Man, though there were some other complications with data collection as well. Here are the basics of what went down. Fourteen people participated in the main experiment. Most of them wer...
<|im_start|>user "Since 2011, some LessWrong folk have observed the winter solstice, as a holiday ritual celebrating human achievement in the face of a confusing, often terrifying world.I've written in the past about the potential value, and danger, of ritual. Over the past years my opinion shifted somewhat, but is sti...
<|im_start|>user "Make field work the bulk of what you do. For every hour you spend engaging with other people's thoughts or reflecting on your own thoughts, spend at least two hours, and ideally two days, trying to directly observe whatever it is you're studying. Add other people to your sensorium. Make conversation w...
<|im_start|>user "Scott Aaronson suggests that Many-Worlds and libertarianism are similar in that they are both cases of bullet-swallowing, rather than bullet-dodging: Libertarianism and MWI are both are grand philosophical theories that start from premises that almost all educated people accept (quantum mechanics in t...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic Effort: Thought seriously for 5 minutes about it. Thought a bit about how to test it empirically. Spelled out my model a little bit. I'm >80% confident this is worth trying and seeing what happens. Spent 45 min writing post.I've been pleased to see "Epistemic Status" hit a critical mass of a...
<|im_start|>user "The sentence “snow is white” is true if and only if snow is white.—Alfred Tarski To say of what is, that it is, or of what is not, that it is not, is true.—Aristotle, Metaphysics IVWalking along the street, your shoelaces come untied. Shortly thereafter, for some odd reason, you start believing your s...
<|im_start|>user "So I was reading (around the first half of) Adam Frank's The Constant Fire, in preparation for my Bloggingheads dialogue with him. Adam Frank's book is about the experience of the sacred. I might not usually call it that, but of course I know the experience Frank is talking about. It's what I feel whe...
<|im_start|>user "A succinct term for a concept is great, but only if everyone involved views it similarly. If you're trying to write something persuasive, controversial terms are traps that can derail discussion and make finding common ground harder. Consider limiting yourself to well understood terms to avoid distrac...
<|im_start|>user "(This is a post from a daily blogging experiment I did at neelnanda.io, which I thought might also fit the tastes of LessWrong)There are two kinds of people in the world: People who actually do things, and people who don’t.Now I’ve got the unnecessarily provocative opening line out of the way, what do...
<|im_start|>user "(If you're familiar with the backstory of the LWSH, you can skip to paragraph 5. If you just want the link to the chat, click here: LWSH on Complice) The Less Wrong Study Hall was created as a tinychat room in March 2013, following Mqrius and ShannonFriedman's desire to create a virtual context for pr...
<|im_start|>user "My friends and family call me "risk tolerant". I wasn't always this way. It is the result of a 3-year-long scientific experiment. You must do everything that frightens you…Everything. I’m not talking about risking your life, but everything else. Think about fear, decide right now how you’re doing to d...
<|im_start|>user "All you need to do is: Pick a time. Weekend afternoons or evenings work well. Pick a place. This can be a coffee shop or casual restaurant (e.g., a pizza place or pub) or a classroom or other on-campus location. Best if it isn’t too noisy. Announce the time and place on LW, a week or so ahead of time,...
<|im_start|>user "Author's Note: the purpose of this sequence is gears, i.e. physiology and molecular/cellular-level mechanisms, not evolution. This post contains only some bare-minimum background information as context for the rest; check out Will Bradshaw's series for a short intro which does better justice to evolut...
<|im_start|>user "(content warning: nuclear war, hypothetical guns, profanity, philosophy, one grammatically-incorrect comma for readability’s sake)This is a very special time of year, when my whole social bubble starts murmuring about nuclear war, and sometimes, some of those murmurers, urging their listeners to worry...
<|im_start|>user "Once upon a time, in my reckless youth, when I knew not the Way of Bayes, I gave a Mysterious Answer to a mysterious-seeming question. Many failures occurred in sequence, but one mistake stands out as most critical: My younger self did not realize that solving a mystery should make it feel less confus...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic status: Casual Some patient and thoughtful folks on LessWrong, and, apparently, some rather less patient folks on r/SneerClub, have pointed out that GDP-to-gold, or GDP-to-oil, are bad proxy measures for economic growth. Ok, this is a counterargument I want to make sure I understand. Is the ...
<|im_start|>user "Over the past few years, we have discreetly approached colleagues faced with a choice between job offers, and asked them to estimate the probability that they will choose one job over another. The average confidence in the predicted choice was a modest 66%, but only 1 of the 24 respondents chose the o...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to Dealing with Network ConstraintsEpistemic Status: I spent some time trying to check if Mysterious Old Wizards were important, and reality did not clearly tell me one way or another. But, I still believe it and frequently reference it and figured I should lay out the belief.Three bottleneck...
<|im_start|>user "When I read Alicorn's post on problems vs tasks, I immediately realized that the proposed terminology helped express one of my pet peeves: the resistance in society to applying rationality to socializing and dating. In a thread long, long ago, SilasBarta described his experience with dating advice: I ...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway), Evolutionary Psychology Biological organisms in general, and human brains particularly, contain complex adaptations; adaptations which involve many genes working in concert. Complex adaptations must evolve incrementally, gene by gene. If gene B dep...
<|im_start|>user "As far as I can tell, most people around these parts consider the principle of charity and its super saiyan form, steelmanning, to be Very Good Rationalist Virtues. I basically agree and I in fact operate under these principles more or less automatically now. HOWEVER, no matter how good the rule is, t...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemological status: I studied bioinformatics but I'm no domain expert and layout my current view on the issue based on the facts I found in the literature. This is not health advice.tl,dr:There’s a strong evolutionary selection for producing enough Vitamin D. Vitamin D works together with Vitamin ...
<|im_start|>user "Note: Experimental, trying to repost a Twitter thread as a Lesswrong post to see if people like it (so if you like it, or don't, tell me).Let's talk a little bit about oscillating motivation, shadow values, non-coercion, and the problem of revolving productivity systems.We've all had the feeling that ...
<|im_start|>user "I blew through all of MoR in about 48 hours, and in an attempt to learn more about the science and philosophy that Harry espouses, I've been reading the sequences and Eliezer's posts on Less Wrong. Eliezer has written extensively about AI, rationality, quantum physics, singularity research, etc. I hav...
<|im_start|>user "Central theme in: Immoral Mazes Sequence, but this generalizes. When looking to succeed, pain is not the unit of effort, and money is a, if not the, unit of caring. One is not always looking to succeed. Here is a common type of problem. You are married, and want to take your spouse out to a romantic d...
<|im_start|>user "An interactive blogpost by Kevin Simler on network dynamics, with a final section on academia and intellectual progress. I generally think careful exploration of small-scale simulations like this can help quite well with understanding difficult topics, and this post seems like a quite good execution o...
<|im_start|>user "Portions of this are taken directly from Three Things I've Learned About Bayes' Rule. One time, someone asked me what my name was. I said, “Mark Xu.” Afterward, they probably believed my name was “Mark Xu.” I’m guessing they would have happily accepted a bet at 20:1 odds that my driver’s license would...
<|im_start|>user "I'm getting married. We decided to take marriage vows very seriously, and write vows that we will be fully committed to uphold. These vows are going to be a commitment no weaker than any promise I ever made or any contract I ever signed. Therefore, it is very important to avoid serious errors in their...
<|im_start|>user "Instead, it’s the point of no return—the day we AI risk reducers lose the ability to significantly reduce AI risk. This might happen years before classic milestones like “World GWP doubles in four years” and “Superhuman AGI is deployed." The rest of this post explains, justifies, and expands on this o...
<|im_start|>user "A couple days ago I surveyed readers for deviant beliefs. The results were funny, hateful, boring and bonkers. One of the submissions might even be useful. If you care a lot about your mind, it is not unreasonable to avoid advertisements like plague rats, up to and including muting your speakers and a...
<|im_start|>user "Sometimes, people propose "experiments" with new norms, policies, etc. that don't have any real means of evaluating whether or not the policy actually succeeded or not.This should be viewed with deep skepticism -- it often seems to me that such an "experiment" isn't really an experiment at all, but ra...
<|im_start|>user "With the expensive part of the Hallowthankmas season now approaching, a question must be looming large in our readers’ minds:“Dear Overcoming Bias, are there biases I can exploit to be seen as generous without actually spending lots of money?”I’m glad to report the answer is yes! According to Hsee—in ...
<|im_start|>user "Once upon a time, three groups of subjects were asked how much they would pay to save 2,000 / 20,000 / 200,000 migrating birds from drowning in uncovered oil ponds. The groups respectively answered $80, $78, and $88.1 This is scope insensitivity or scope neglect: the number of birds saved—the scope of...
<|im_start|>user "(Cross-posted from Facebook.)I've noticed that, by my standards and on an Eliezeromorphic metric, most people seem to require catastrophically high levels of faith in what they're doing in order to stick to it. By this I mean that they would not have stuck to writing the Sequences or HPMOR or working ...
<|im_start|>user "C.S. Lewis wrote a short book attacking moral subjectivism in education; it's available online here as a pdf, here as raw text, and here as a series of videos [1 2 3], and I think probably worth reading in full (at 50 pages or ~100 minutes of video at 1x speed). This post is mostly me rambling about w...
<|im_start|>user "An interesting experiment: researchers set up a wheel on a ramp with adjustable weights. Participants in the experiment then adjust the weights to try and make the wheel roll down the ramp as quickly as possible. The participants go one after the other, each with a limited number of attempts, each pas...
<|im_start|>user "(Response to: You cannot be mistaken about (not) wanting to wirehead, Welcome to Heaven) The Omega CorporationInternal MemorandumTo: Omega, CEOFrom: Gamma, Vice President, Hedonic Maximization Sir, this concerns the newest product of our Hedonic Maximization Department, the Much-Better-Life Simulator....
<|im_start|>user "Let me tell you about my scooter.I have a foldable electric trike scooter slightly heavier than my toddler. It has no pedal option, just footrests.It can't reverse. It corners badly. It has a little nubbin that's supposed to keep it from unfolding till I deliberately unfold it, but that usually doesn'...
<|im_start|>user "Yesterday I blew up the front page. This was unintentional. I was tricked by one of my friends:petrov_day_admin_account September 26, 2020 11:26 AM Hello Chris_Leong,You are part of a smaller group of 30 users who has been selected for the second part of this experiment. In order for the website not t...
<|im_start|>user "(Cross-posted on my personal blog, which has LaTeX, and is easier to read.) Let's say that you are are at your local less wrong meet up and someone makes some strong claim and seems very sure of himself, "blah blah blah resurrected blah blah alicorn princess blah blah 99 percent sure." You think he is...
<|im_start|>user "The core fallacy of anthropomorphism is expecting something to be predicted by the black box of your brain, when its casual structure is so different from that of a human brain, as to give you no license to expect any such thing. The Tragedy of Group Selectionism (as previously covered in the evolutio...
<|im_start|>user ""Do as well as Einstein?" Jeffreyssai said, incredulously. "Just as well as Einstein? Albert Einstein was a great scientist of his era, but that was his era, not this one! Einstein did not comprehend the Bayesian methods; he lived before the cognitive biases were discovered; he had no scientific grasp...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic Status: Common knowledge, just not to me The Evolution of Trust is a deceptively friendly little interactive game. Near the end, there’s a “sandbox” evolutionary game theory simulator. It’s pretty flexible. You can do quick experiments in it without writing code. I highly recommend playing a...
<|im_start|>user "A UBI (e.g. paying every adult American $8k/year) would reduce recipient’s need for money and so may reduce their incentive to work. This is frequently offered as an argument against a UBI (or as an argument for alternative policies like the EITC that directly incentivize work). This argument is somet...
<|im_start|>user "This post requires some knowledge of mathematical logic and computability theory. The basic idea is due to Vladimir Nesov and me. Let the universe be a computer program U that can make calls to a halting oracle. Let the agent be a subprogram A within U that can also make calls to the oracle. The sourc...
<|im_start|>user "When I'm learning a new skill, there's a technique I often use to quickly gain the basics of the new skill without getting drowned in the plethora of resources that exist. I've found that just 3 resources that cover the skill from 3 separate viewpoints(along with either daily practice or a project) is...
<|im_start|>user "Disclaimer: I’ve never held a job for more than a year [1] or been paid more than $15 an hour. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.Many of my peers seem to make career plans like by asking things likeWhat am I interested in, or what do I like doing? andHow can I do something related to that?whi...