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<|im_start|>user "Like "IRC chat" or "TCP/IP protocol", the phrase "reproductive organ" is redundant. All organs are reproductive organs. Where do a bird's wings come from? An Evolution-of-Birds Fairy who thinks that flying is really neat? The bird's wings are there because they contributed to the bird's ancestors' rep...
<|im_start|>user "Whenever someone exhorts you to "think outside the box", they usually, for your convenience, point out exactly where "outside the box" is located. Isn't it funny how nonconformists all dress the same... In Artificial Intelligence, everyone outside the field has a cached result for brilliant new revolu...
<|im_start|>user "Does this feel familiar: "I thought I understood thing X, but then I learned something new and realized that I'd never really understood X?"For example, consider a loop in some programming language:var i = 0;while (i < n) { i = i + 1;}If you're a programmer, you probably understand it just fine. How i...
<|im_start|>user "(This post was collaboratively written together with Duncan Sabien.) Startup founders stereotypically experience some pretty serious mood swings. One day, their product seems destined to be bigger than Google, and the next, it’s a mess of incoherent, unrealistic nonsense that no one in their right min...
<|im_start|>user "You can have some fun with people whose anticipations get out of sync with what they believe they believe. I was once at a dinner party, trying to explain to a man what I did for a living, when he said: "I don't believe Artificial Intelligence is possible because only God can make a soul." At this poi...
<|im_start|>user "(Cross-posted from the EA Forum)This post was written by Buck and Claire Zabel but it’s written in Buck’s voice, and “I” here refers to Buck, because it’s about grantmaking that he might do. (Claire contributed in her personal capacity, not as an Open Phil grantmaker). In addition to accepting applica...
<|im_start|>user "There was an awful rainbow once in heaven: We know her woof, her texture; she is given In the dull catalogue of common things. —John Keats, Lamia I am guessing—though it is only a guess—that Keats himself did not know the woof and texture of the rainbow. Not the way that Newton understood rainbows. Pe...
<|im_start|>user "The obvious answer is 'the sequences' but imo that is neither necessary nor sufficient. The Sequences are valuable but they are quite old at this point. They also run to over a million words (though Rationality AtZ is only ~600k). Here is a list of core skills and ideas: 1 - Rationality TechniquesIdea...
<|im_start|>user "A problem I sometimes have is that someone will suggest that I do something uncomfortable - physically or emotionally, whichever - and they'll acknowledge that it's not going to feel good.And then they won't follow up by explaining exactly how much and in what way it's supposed to hurt, let alone why ...
<|im_start|>user "Related to: Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality We’ve had a lot of good criticism of Less Wrong lately (including Patri’s post above, which contains a number of useful points). But to prevent those posts from confusing newcomers, this may be a good ti...
<|im_start|>user "A black car departed from Ben Gurion Airport. The driver, Molly Miriam, handed a clipboard to Vi, who rode shotgun. "Goldberg Aerospace. They built the solar sailer. They went from concept to manufacture in six months. No human engineering team could do that. They probably an have an AGI," said Vi. "T...
<|im_start|>user "See also: Challenging the Difficult and Tips and Tricks for Answering Hard Questions. From Michael Nielsen's Reinventing Discovery: In January 2009, [mathematician Tim] Gowers decided to use his blog to run a very unusual social experiment. He picked out an important and difficult unsolved mathematica...
<|im_start|>user "(Or, is coordination easier in a long timeline?)It seems like it would be good if the world could coordinate to not build AGI. That is, at some point in the future, when some number of teams will have the technical ability to build and deploy and AGI, but they all agree to voluntarily delay (perhaps o...
<|im_start|>user "Public schools (and arguably private schools as well; I wouldn't know) teach students what to think, not how to think. On LessWrong, this insight is so trivial not to bear repeating. Unfortunately, I think many people have adopted it as an immutable fact about the world that will be corrected post-Sin...
<|im_start|>user "Molecular nanotechnology, or MNT for those of you who love acronyms, seems to be a fairly common trope on LW and related literature. It's not really clear to me why. In many of the examples of "How could AI's help us" or "How could AI's rise to power" phrases like "cracks protein folding" or "making a...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: Don't Fear Failure In the same theme as the last article, I think that failure is actually pretty important in learning. Rationality needs data, and trying is a good source of it.When you're trying to do something new, you probably won't be able to do it right the first time. Even if you ...
<|im_start|>user "B.F. Skinner called thoughts "mental behavior". He believed they could be rewarded and punished just like physical behavior, and that they increased or declined in frequency accordingly.Sadly, psychology has not yet advanced to the point where we can give people electric shocks for thinking things, so...
<|im_start|>user ""I wonder what pulls the boats," Luna said. "Whatever pulls the horseless carriages must also pull the boats," a first year said. "But…but…. You can SEE horses pulling the carriages and you CAN'T SEE anything pulling the boats." Luna said. Luna's Failed Friendships Counter ticked up to four. "They're ...
<|im_start|>user "I was having a discussion with a friend and reading some related blog articles about the question of whether race affects IQ. (N.B. This post is NOT about the content of the arguments surrounding that question.) Now, like your typical LessWrong member, I subscribe to the Litany of Gendlin, I don’t wan...
<|im_start|>user "In the original When None Dare Urge Restraint post, Eliezer discusses the dangers of the "spiral of hate" that can develop when saying negative things about the Hated Enemy trumps saying accurate things. Specifically, he uses the example of how the 9/11 hijackers were widely criticized as "cowards," e...
<|im_start|>user "An early draft of publication #2 in the Open Problems in Friendly AI series is now available: Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI, and the Lobian Obstacle. ~20,000 words, aimed at mathematicians or the highly mathematically literate. The research reported on was conducted by Yudkowsky and Herreshoff, ...
<|im_start|>user "MIRI is releasing a new edition of Rationality: From AI to Zombies, including the first set of R:AZ print books. As of this morning, print versions of Map and Territory (volume 1) and How to Actually Change Your Mind (volume 2) are now available on Amazon (1, 2), and we'll be rolling out the other fou...
<|im_start|>user ""The map is not the territory," as the saying goes. The only life-size, atomically detailed, 100% accurate map of California is California. But California has important regularities, such as the shape of its highways, that can be described using vastly less information—not to mention vastly less physi...
<|im_start|>user "Imagine that the only way that civilization could be destroyed was by a large pandemic that occurred at the same time as a large recession, so that governments and other organisations were too weakened to address the pandemic properly. Then if we looked at the past, as observers in a non-destroyed civ...
<|im_start|>user "By requests from Blueberry and jimrandomh, here's an expanded repost of my comment which was itself a repost of my email sent to decision-theory-workshop. (Wait, I gotta take a breath now.) A note on credit: I can only claim priority for the specific formalization offered here, which builds on Vladimi...
<|im_start|>user "First post here, and I'm disagreeing with something in the main sequences. Hubris acknowledged, here's what I've been thinking about. It comes from the post "Are your enemies innately evil?": On September 11th, 2001, nineteen Muslim males hijacked four jet airliners in a deliberately suicidal effort t...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: Talking Snakes: A Cautionary Tale Related to: Explain, Worship, Ignore Skepticism is like sex and pizza: when it's good, it's very very good, and when it's bad, it's still pretty good.It really is hard to dislike skeptics. Whether or not their rational justifications are perfect, they are...
<|im_start|>user "I’ve been seeing a lot of comments lately about how the financial markets have gone completely wonky, efficient markets hypothesis looks crazy right now, etc. I don’t currently trade actively and haven’t run a lot of numbers, but just in terms of big-picture qualitative behavior, high stock prices mak...
<|im_start|>user "It commonly acknowledged here that current decision theories have deficiencies that show up in the form of various paradoxes. Since there seems to be little hope that Eliezer will publish his Timeless Decision Theory any time soon, I decided to try to synthesize some of the ideas discussed in this for...
<|im_start|>user "Related to: Rationalization, Meditation on curiosity, Original Seeing. Why aren’t you learning faster? For me, one answer is: because I’m not asking questions. I blunder through conversations trying to “do my job”, or to look good, or elaborating my own theories, or allowing cached replies to come out...
<|im_start|>user "I expect "slow takeoff," which we could operationalize as the economy doubling over some 4 year interval before it doubles over any 1 year interval. Lots of people in the AI safety community have strongly opposing views, and it seems like a really important and intriguing disagreement. I feel like I d...
<|im_start|>user "If you were really convinced that the next task on your to do list was the very best thing to advance your goals you'd feel a lot more interested in it. Some part of you believes this to be the case and other parts very obviously don't. Thus, uncertainty about how to prioritize. My impression is that ...
<|im_start|>user "A few different things that have occurred while investigating. It seems weird to me there are lots of posts about akrasia and productivity but not adhd.1. High Rejection Sensitivity makes my attention in general more flinchy. Rather than just explicit rejection, you can think of this as a high sensiti...
<|im_start|>user "Always wanted to run a Less Wrong meetup, but been unsure of how? The How to Run a Successful Less Wrong Meetup booklet is here to help you! The 33-page document draws from consultations with more than a dozen Less Wrong meetup group organizers. Stanislaw Boboryk created the document design. Luke prov...
<|im_start|>user "Note: weird stuff, very informal.Suppose I search for an algorithm that has made good predictions in the past, and use that algorithm to make predictions in the future.I may get a "daemon," a consequentialist who happens to be motivated to make good predictions (perhaps because it has realized that on...
<|im_start|>user "Related: Leave a Line of Retreat, Living In Many Worlds"It all adds up to normality." Greg Egan, QuarantineYou're on an airplane at 35,000 feet, and you strike up a conversation about aerodynamic lift with the passenger in your row. Things are going along just fine until they point out to you that you...
<|im_start|>user "Feedback is important. It's true in Machine Learning, and it's true in writing. So when you write a cool new post on LW, you generally hope for feedback. Positive feedback, fingers crossed, but good negative feedback is also very nice for improving your writing chops and your ideas. Yet getting meanin...
<|im_start|>user "When you consider that our grouping instincts are optimized for 50-person hunter-gatherer bands where everyone knows everyone else, it begins to seem miraculous that modern-day large institutions survive at all. Well—there are governments with specialized militaries and police, which can extract taxes...
<|im_start|>user "At a family party some years ago, one of my uncles remarked on how little science really knows. For example, we still have no idea how gravity works - why things fall down. "Actually, we do know how gravity works," I said. (My father, a Ph.D. physicist, was also present; but he wasn't even touching th...
<|im_start|>user "As you may have noticed, things in the world are a bit cuckoo bananas right now. Social distancing is becoming increasingly widespread, which means that people are going to be experiencing social isolation at an unprecedented level. In this age of global connectedness, this seems really scary to some ...
<|im_start|>user "Summary: If you object to consequentialist ethical theories because you think they endorse horrible or catastrophic decisions, then you may instead be objecting to short-sighted utility functions or poor decision theories.Recommended: Decision Theory Paradox: PD with Three Implies Chaos?Related: The "...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic status: pretty much factual. CW: diets, calories One of the odd things about working on longevity is that now people ask me for lifestyle advice. Or they ask me what I, personally do to live longer. Mostly my response has been a lame “um, nothing?” There are, as of now, no interventions show...
<|im_start|>user "The Ministry-sanctioned tour of the Chamber of Secrets was pure propaganda. The Marauder's Map showed a second entrance to the Chamber of Secrets hidden in the Girls' Bathroom. "Hss hsssss hsss," Luna copied from Harry Potter. A sink opened up into a large tunnel. "Lumos, Luna said. Each tunnel segmen...
<|im_start|>user "Once, when I was holding forth upon the Way, I remarked upon how most organized belief systems exist to flee from doubt. A listener replied to me that the Jesuits must be immune from this criticism, because they practice organized doubt: their novices, he said, are told to doubt Christianity; doubt th...
<|im_start|>user "We (Zvi Mowshowitz, Vladimir Slepnev and Paul Christiano) are happy to announce that the AI Alignment Prize is a success. From November 3 to December 31 we received over 40 entries representing an incredible amount of work and insight. That's much more than we dared to hope for, in both quantity and q...
<|im_start|>user "Related to: Can Counterfactuals Be True?, Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality. Imagine that one day, Omega comes to you and says that it has just tossed a fair coin, and given that the coin came up tails, it decided to ask you to give it $100. Whatever you do in this situation, nothing else wi...
<|im_start|>user ""It's in the Mirror of Atlantis," Harry said. "We need Gillyweed," said Luna, "Lots of Gillyweed." "The Mirror of Atlantis is located at the end of the third-floor corridor on the right-hand side," said Harry. "What are you waiting for?" said Luna. "You're not going to ask me how I know these things?"...
<|im_start|>user "Luna located the Ravenclaw Common Room on the map. She climbed up to Ravenclaw Tower, then climbed up Ravenclaw Tower. All that separated Luna from making day-one friends was a door with a bronze knocker in the shape of an eagle which spoke riddles appropriate for first-years. She could almost hear mu...
<|im_start|>user "Previously in series: Selecting Rationalist GroupsFollowup to: Rationality is Systematized Winning, Extenuating Circumstances Why emphasize the connection between rationality and winning? Well... that is what decision theory is for. But also to place a Go stone to block becoming a whining-based commun...
<|im_start|>user "This is a post about my own confusions. It seems likely that other people have discussed these issues at length somewhere, and that I am not up with current thoughts on them, because I don’t keep good track of even everything great that everyone writes. I welcome anyone kindly directing me to the most...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic status: Hortative. I'm trying to argue for carving reality at a new joint.I think it's lovely and useful that we have labels, not just for rationalist, but for rationalist-adjacent and for post-rationalist. But these labels are generally made extensionally, by pointing at people who claim th...
<|im_start|>user "Why does our skin form wrinkles as we age?This post will outline the answer in a few steps:Under what conditions do materials form wrinkles, in general?How does the general theory of wrinkles apply to aging human skin?What underlying factors drive the physiological changes which result in wrinkles?In ...
<|im_start|>user "I don't have a good name for this fallacy, but I hope to work it out with everyone here through thinking and discussion. It goes like this: a large majority of otherwise smart people spend time doing semi-productive things, when there are massively productive opportunities untapped. A somewhat silly e...
<|im_start|>user "[Click here to see a list of all interviews] I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI. Below you will find some thoughts on the topic by Shane Legg, a computer scientist and AI researcher who has been working on theoretical models of s...
<|im_start|>user "Epistemic spot checks typically consist of references from a book, selected by my interest level, checked against either the book’s source or my own research. This one is a little different that I’m focusing on a single paragraph in a single paper. Specifically as part of a larger review I read Ericss...
<|im_start|>user "Hurrah! Success! I didn't know what to expect, and am pleasantly surprised to find the Frontpage is still intact. My thanks to everyone who took part, to everyone who commented on yesterday's post, and to everyone who didn't unilaterally blow up the site.Launch Attempts ResultsI said I would share use...
<|im_start|>user "Say you want to learn to play piano. What do you do? Do you grab some sheet music for 'Flight of the Bumblebee' and start playing? No. First you learn how to read music, and where to put your fingers, and how to play chords, and how to use different rhythms, and how to evoke different textures. You ma...
<|im_start|>user ""All men are mortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore Socrates is mortal." — Aristotle(?) Socrates raised the glass of hemlock to his lips... "Do you suppose," asked one of the onlookers, "that even hemlock will not be enough to kill so wise and good a man?" "No," replied another bystander, a student of p...
<|im_start|>user "Many people have an incorrect view of the Future of Humanity Institute's funding situation, so this is a brief note to correct that; think of it as a spiritual successor to this post. As John Maxwell puts it, FHI is "one of the three organizations co-sponsoring LW [and] a group within the University o...
<|im_start|>user "1. Money wants to be linear, but wants even more to be logarithmic.People sometimes talk as if risk-aversion (or risk-loving) is irrational in itself. It is true that VNM-rationality implies you just take expected values, and hence, don't penalize variance or any such thing. However, you are allowed t...
<|im_start|>user "Related: LessWrong as a social catalystI primarily used my prior user profile asked questions of Less Wrong. When I had an inkling for a query, but I didn't have a fully formed hypothesis, I wouldn't know how to search for answers to questions on the Internet myself, so I asked them on Less Wrong. The...
<|im_start|>user "Today I watched a friend do calibration practice and was reminded of how wide you have to cast your net to get well-calibrated 90% confidence. This is true even when the questions aren't gotchas, just because you won't think of all the ways something could be wildly unlike your quick estimate's model....
<|im_start|>user "In the Ultimatum Game, the first player chooses how to split $10 between themselves and the second player, and the second player decides whether to accept the split or reject it—in the latter case, both parties get nothing. So far as conventional causal decision theory goes (two-box on Newcomb's Probl...
<|im_start|>user "It is a non-so-hidden agenda of this site, Less Wrong, that there are many causes which benefit from the spread of rationality—because it takes a little more rationality than usual to see their case, as a supporter, or even just a supportive bystander. Not just the obvious causes like atheism, but thi...
<|im_start|>user "I'm often reluctant to ask for explanations on LW, and to typical-mind a bit I think this may be true of others as well. This suggests that when you're writing something for public consumption, it's better to err on the side of too much rather than too little explanation. If there's too much explanati...
<|im_start|>user "What does it take to—as in yesterday's example—see a "baseball game" as "An artificial group conflict in which you use a long wooden cylinder to whack a thrown spheroid, and then run between four safe positions"? What does it take to play the rationalist version of Taboo, in which the goal is not to f...
<|im_start|>user "In Inaccessible Information, Paul Christiano lays out a fundamental challenge in training machine learning systems to give us insight into parts of the world that we cannot directly verify. The core problem he lays out is as follows. Suppose we lived in a world that had invented machine learning but n...
<|im_start|>user "The dominant model about status in LW seems to be one of relative influence. Necessarily, it's zero-sum. So we throw up our hands and accept that half the community is just going to run a deficit.Here's a different take: status in the sense of worth. Here's a set of things we like, or here's a set of ...
<|im_start|>user "Perhaps the single largest voluntary institution of our modern world—bound together not by police and taxation, not by salaries and managers, but by voluntary donations flowing from its members—is the Catholic Church. It's too large to be held together by individual negotiations, like a group task in ...
<|im_start|>user "Highlights from MIRI's year-end strategy update:MIRI executive director Nate Soares reports that the "new research directions" we initiated in 2017 have "at this point, largely failed, in the sense that neither Eliezer nor I have sufficient hope in it for us to continue focusing our main efforts there...
<|im_start|>user "I just got home from a six day meditation retreat and began writing. The catch is that I arrived at the retreat yesterday. I knew going in that it was a high variance operation. All who had experience with such things warned us we would hate the first few days, even if things were going well. I was de...
<|im_start|>user "Traditional Rationality is phrased as social rules, with violations interpretable as cheating: if you break the rules and no one else is doing so, you're the first to defect - making you a bad, bad person. To Bayesians, the brain is an engine of accuracy: if you violate the laws of rationality, the en...
<|im_start|>user ""All around the bog still sprawls, from out the drear lake come soulless thoughts and drift into the hearts of the people, and they are one with their surroundings."— Alan Garner, The Weirdstone of Brisingamen.If our blogging is to be more than shouting into the void, we have to write good comments. B...
<|im_start|>user "Since I started quarantine in late February, I've been trying to learn the skill of modelling implicit skills and knowledge. Over that time, I've interviewed nearly 20 people and learned one specific implict theory or skill that they use. Many of those people in the rationality and post-rationality co...
<|im_start|>user "Barring a major collapse of human civilization (due to nuclear war, asteroid impact, etc.), many experts expect the intelligence explosion Singularity to occur within 50-200 years. That fact means that many philosophical problems, about which philosophers have argued for millennia, are suddenly very u...
<|im_start|>user "Previously in series: Aiming at the Target Yesterday I spoke of how "When I think you're a powerful intelligence, and I think I know something about your preferences, then I'll predict that you'll steer reality into regions that are higher in your preference ordering." You can quantify this, at least ...
<|im_start|>user "In Inadequacy and Modesty, Eliezer describes modest epistemology:How likely is it that an entire country—one of the world’s most advanced countries—would forego trillions of dollars of real economic growth because their monetary controllers—not politicians, but appointees from the professional elite—w...
<|im_start|>user "If you want to understand the modern economy, as opposed to the economies of yore, one source I strongly recommend is a short story from the July 1958 issue of Astounding Science Fiction, titled “Business As Usual During Alterations”. It’s roughly a 15 minute read. I’m about to throw out major spoiler...
<|im_start|>user "(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)(Content warning: discussion of death and intense pain)This post is an amalgam of thoughts about death, prompted centrally by Atul Gawande’s book Being Mortal. I.Gawande’s book describes a lot of different people who are dying, at different speeds, with different ki...
<|im_start|>user "Written with much help from Nick Tarleton and Kaj Sotala, in response to various themes here, here, and throughout Less Wrong; but a casual mention here1 inspired me to finally write this post. (Note: The first, second, and third footnotes of this post are abnormally important.) It seems to have becom...
<|im_start|>user "Update March 2012: We are still accepting and processing applications for this work on an ongoing basis. Imagine trying to learn baseball by reading essays about baseball techniques. [1] We're trying to make the jump to teaching people rationality by, metaphorically speaking, having them throw, catch,...
<|im_start|>user "I'd like to supplement the open call for taggers with a few points:Tagging is a neglected cause area. There is still a huge amount to do, and tagging makes a real difference in making LessWrong content easier to discover, explore, and re-find.The problem is real. People find LessWrong difficult to rea...
<|im_start|>user "Before I was very involved in the Less Wrong community, I heard that Eliezer was looking for people to sit with him while he worked, to increase writing productivity. I knew that he was doing important work in the world, and figured that this was the sort of contribution to improving humanity that I w...
<|im_start|>user "(This was originally a comment that I wrote as a follow up to my question for William MacAskill's AMA. I'm moving it since it's perhaps more on-topic here.) It occurs to me that another reason for the lack of engagement by people with philosophy backgrounds may be that philosophers aren't aware of the...
<|im_start|>user "Akrasia is the tendency to act against your own long-term interests, and is a problem doubtless only too familiar to us all. In his book "Breakdown of Will", psychologist George C Ainslie sets out a theory of how akrasia arises and why we do the things we do to fight it. His extraordinary proposal tak...
<|im_start|>user "Summary: we don't understand why programmers are paid so well. If you're a programmer, there's enough of a chance that this is temporary that it's worth explicitly planning for a future in which you're laid off and unable to find similarly high-paying work. Programmers are paid surprisingly well given...
<|im_start|>user "Followup to: No Universally Compelling Arguments, Passing the Recursive Buck Lewis Carroll, who was also a mathematician, once wrote a short dialogue called What the Tortoise said to Achilles. If you have not yet read this ancient classic, consider doing so now. The Tortoise offers Achilles a step of ...
<|im_start|>user "A few months after writing this post I realized that one of the key arguments was importantly flawed. I therefore recommend against inclusion in the 2019 review. This post presents an improved version of the original argument, explains the flaw, and then updates my all-things-considered view according...
<|im_start|>user "Yesterday, we saw that in Japan, blood types have taken the place of astrology—if your blood type is AB, for example, you're supposed to be "cool and controlled". So suppose we decided to invent a new word, "wiggin", and defined this word to mean people with green eyes and black hair— A green-eyed man...
<|im_start|>user "Reworked version of a shortform comment. This is still not the optimal version of this post but it's the one I had time to re-publish.I've spent the past few years trying to get a handle on what it means to be moral. In particular, to be moral in a robust way, that holds up in different circumstances....
<|im_start|>user "When I criticize, I'm a genius. I can go through a book of highly-referenced scientific articles and find errors in each of them. Boy, I feel smart. How are these famous people so dumb? But when I write, I suddenly become stupid. I sometimes spend half a day writing something and then realize at the e...
<|im_start|>user "Countersignaling can backfire if your audience doesn't have enough information about you to start with. For some traits, it's especially dangerous, because you're likely to do it for traits you don't have the credibility to countersignal at all based on a misunderstanding of your relation to the gener...
<|im_start|>user "Warning: This is an applied rationality post, about rationality applied to a specific area of life, not a generalized rationality post. Ergonomics is incredibly important. Sadly, so many of us in the techno-geek cluster ignore well-defined best practices of ergonomics and develop the infamous hunched ...
<|im_start|>user "On Dec. 24, 1957, a Mr. T. Grinch attempted to disrupt Christmas by stealing associated gifts and decorations. His plan failed, the occupants of Dr. Suess' narrative remained festive, and Mr. Grinch himself succumbed to cardiac hypertrophy. To help others avoid repeating his mistakes, I've written a b...
<|im_start|>user "A green humvee arrived at Jieyang Chaoshan International Airport. Vi got in the back with Molly Miriam who handed her clipboard to Vi. "健重制造公司. A no-name Chinese factory that makes barbells and similar equipment. It's not even fully-automated," read Vi. "They are registered to use a low-intelligence A...
<|im_start|>user "This document describes precautions to take in a scenario like the Cuban Missile Crisis, where nuclear war seems plausibly imminent within the next days or weeks. This is not a guide for what to do if a missile is currently inbound and will strike within minutes or hours.OverviewIf tensions between nu...
<|im_start|>user "I strongly suspect that there is a possible art of rationality (attaining the map that reflects the territory, choosing so as to direct reality into regions high in your preference ordering) which goes beyond the skills that are standard, and beyond what any single practitioner singly knows. I have a ...
<|im_start|>user "Previously in sequence/sequence index: Living LuminouslyNext in sequence: Let There Be Light Luminosity is fun, useful to others, and important in self-improvement. You should learn about it with this sequence. Luminosity? Pah! Who needs it?It's a legitimate question. The typical human gets through li...
<|im_start|>user "Hindsight bias is when people who know the answer vastly overestimate its predictability or obviousness, compared to the estimates of subjects who must guess without advance knowledge. Hindsight bias is sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect. Fischhoff and Beyth (1975) presented students with...
<|im_start|>user "Behaviorism historically began with Pavlov's studies into classical conditioning. When dogs see food they naturally salivate. When Pavlov rang a bell before giving the dogs food, the dogs learned to associate the bell with the food and salivate even after they merely heard the bell . When Pavlov rang ...