evaluation/query_family/conditional/analysis_report.md

# Conditional Breakdown Report

## Scope

- Source analysis run: `20260526_v2_official20_plus_c2patch_plus_subgroupconditionalrepair_merged49`
- Family analyzed: `conditional_dependency_structure`
- Excluded models: `cdtd, codi, goggle`
- Included models: `11` from the frozen README roster
- Deduplicated dataset-model panels: `510`
- Conditional query rows used: `25108`

## Canonical and derived views

- Canonical score: `mean(dependency_strength_similarity, direction_consistency, slice_level_consistency)`
- Derived subgroup score: `mean(direction_consistency, slice_level_consistency)`
- The derived score is not a replacement for the frozen contract; it isolates the two subgroup-sensitive conditional branches for paper analysis.

## Main findings

1. `RealTabFormer` is the strongest model on the subgroup-facing conditional view with mean derived subgroup score `0.748`.
2. Canonically, `RealTabFormer` leads the full conditional family with mean conditional score `0.671`.
3. `TVAE` is the most direction-heavy model (direction minus slice = `0.167`), while `RealTabFormer` is the most slice-heavy (`0.070`).
4. `TVAE` shows the largest strength-to-subgroup drop risk: its dependency-strength mean exceeds its subgroup-facing mean by `-0.197`.
5. Dataset difficulty is uneven: `n9` is hardest on the subgroup-facing conditional view (`0.000` mean across models), while `n11` is easiest (`1.000`).

## Files to use first

- `figures/conditional_subgroup_tradeoff_scatter_main.pdf`
- `figures/conditional_strength_vs_subgroup_bridge.pdf`
- `figures/conditional_branch_dumbbell_main.pdf`
- `tables/conditional_model_summary_generated.tex`
- `data/model_summary.csv`

## README compliance note

- All plotted models are restricted to the frozen README roster with fixed colors.
- Scatter plots now use legends instead of point-side model labels, matching the README figure annotation rule.
- Model order is fixed globally instead of being re-sorted by score.

## Prefix note

- Prefix coverage summary rows: `33`
- Prefix-level figures are exported for `c / m / n` slice checks, but the paper-facing core keeps the full deduplicated panel.