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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,979 | I like it. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would prefer the other. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Would you raise your hand if you are interested in this [alternative language] on page 21 and then we will see who is not. | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | Voting members only? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, let's just get everybody's sentiment for the moment. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | What are we voting on right now, sir? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Just whether you'd be interested in--not that you are voting for it--what's on page 21. If there is no reason to discuss it, we needn't waste our time. One, two, three, four, five. How many would not be interested in it? Okay. We'd better do that again with voting members, hadn't we? HOW many voting members would not b... | 535 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was simply going to point out that I agree totally with what you said about even keel--that is, I think this is a time for a sticky funds rate unless we see something big happening. But then your specific proposal was a biased proposal, that we raise the funds rate if the aggregates are strong in the range and not [r... | 179 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, Chuck, I'm probably influenced a bit by the concern that if we reduce the fed funds rate in the next few weeks--unless something is happening that we can explain--I'd be worried about the international situation | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | I agree with that, but I don't see why we should raise the funds rate if the aggregates are strong. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I suspect that is the issue more than any particular numbers we put down. I would want to be biased, so I'm on the opposite side of this from Mr. Partee. I might just interject that I consulted very carefully with my resident monetarist guru in New York and he assured me that he is not worried about the money sup... | 92 |
fomc | 1,979 | He is absolutely purist. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | He is absolutely purist. He is as pure as he can be. He looked back at historical experience and these one-quarter deviations don't mean anything. | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | Only on the up side. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think this is precisely the point. We have had a pattern where the deviations on the down side have not been a one-quarter deviation but a one-cycle deviation. And we now have a one-quarter deviation on the down side and I want to be asymmetrical. | 53 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob Black. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I was just going to ask for some clarification and maybe offer an alternative solution. If I understood what Steve was saying, we would treat it on the down side as a money market directive; that is, we would ease the funds rate down if the rate of growth in the aggregates came in below 4 percent. Now, at... | 201 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bob. Dave. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | It seems to me that we get caught up in the formality of our system here as against the reality of the way we operate. In reality, the way we operate is that we have a federal funds rate that we more or less peg. We've been pegging it at 10 percent plus. If I interpret your recommendation right--and I would agree with ... | 120 |
fomc | 1,979 | Our directive would be even keel and we would [have a conference] call if we think a change [is needed]. That solves our directive because it gets us ready for the Merrill case. If we lose the Merrill case, that will be our directive for the future. Go forth and do well and we'll be in touch. | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's more of a description of how the Committee feels about all of these ranges because it seems to me that if we have a telephone meeting it will take something really tremendous to trigger us off the 10 percent [funds rate] in the next few weeks. | 54 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's not a bad point. Maybe we ought to have a directive that says we will even keel it and if there are any significant changes, we'll consult. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if Steve is right, we should have a month of very large increases [in monetary growth]. And it seems to me that that might very well trigger either a telephone conversation or-- | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | It would. I have great confidence in Steve but, on the other hand, there just isn't a wisp of evidence of what he's predicting. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | On average Steve is always right, but not from month to month. Larry. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | I just can't resist pointing out that, as I read this, there isn't very much sentiment within this group to use the Humphrey-Hawkins situation to signal a relatively important change in how we [handle] this--in other words, to widen the fed funds ranges significantly. By doing so we can be masters of the aggregates' de... | 103 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, Larry, I don't know what the sentiment is. but I have a bit of a trouble thinking that we know enough about these aggregates and their stability to operate that way. We have this phenomenon that at some point, for some reasons, the money function shifts around on us. And how one measures that in a particular week... | 79 |
fomc | 1,979 | Your St. Louis guru would suggest targeting more on the base but-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, but you keep adjusting the base so that you go back to a constant situation and give no effect to the shifting around of the demand function of money. I would have very deep trouble [with that] because that isn't what is happening in the economy. The economy is shifting its preference as to how it holds these fund... | 93 |
fomc | 1,979 | And there is a significance attached internationally to what happens to the funds rate. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | Absolutely. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I will shut up [after this], Mr. Chairman, but I think there are a lot of sophisticated people who are trading in the dollar foreign exchange market who are aware of the realities of the aggregates too and who are somewhat suspicious [of our commitment to these ranges], due to the fact that our past practice has permit... | 110 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if we want to put reserve requirements on mutual money market funds, that would be one place to start in order to get our aggregates back under the same definition and so forth. Mark. | 39 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have a feeling that I'm about to vote for a money market directive, which means that in the years I've contested with this Committee the Committee has won and I've given in. | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | If we could only get other members to give in we would-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would like to say that I'm very sympathetic to the suggestion Dave made; I think that's probably right. But I wonder if we ought not have some concrete notion just among ourselves as to what magnitude of growth in the aggregates would tend to precipitate a call. I say that because if Steve is right on the shift in de... | 170 |
fomc | 1,979 | Which is what the nominal GNP is; that's how it gets there. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | I understand. I just think we ought to have a notion--CHAIR" MILLER. Well, we ought to have an understanding and I don't know how best to articulate that understanding. Each of you sees the money numbers as they are published each Thursday. Having seen them, if we haven't called a meeting and you think we need to talk,... | 112 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're talking about a real money market directive without any aggregates specified. It has been a long time since- - | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Has anybody thought about "tone and feel of the market ? CH?+IR" MILLER. No, we haven't thought of that | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I suggest, if the Committee's sentiment is moving that way, that you might want to reconsider the virtues of the optional paragraph we put [in the Bluebook]. It's quite consistent with holding [current conditions in] the money market but it permits some tightening, which I assume the Committee wouldn't object to, i... | 135 |
fomc | 1,979 | Steve, that doesn't give us any leeway if they are exceptionally weak. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, but as I say, if-- | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | It s@ems to me that we'd want to have both options at this time. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | We're talking about discussing either direction. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we want to look even-handed, too, and that [Bluebook] directive would not look even-handed. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't want to look even-handed. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | There is a strong reason for not letting the rate drop if we think the dollar is vulnerable. So I think we ought to limit that possibility--not cut it off absolutely, but not allow it without further discussion. We can make that decision, but it shouldn't come about through the automatic workings of our instructions. | 62 |
fomc | 1,979 | But it's equally true, Henry, that there is a strong reason for not letting the rate rise if we think the economy is vulnerable, and I think the economy is vulnerable. | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if the directive were even keel, then we would not have any change from that even keel unless there were the votes for that. So it's decided by whether more people think [the funds rate should be moved] in one direction or the other. | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it would be a mistake at the present time to adopt a directive, which would then be published, that does not have a reference to monetary aggregates. It will touch off a wave of speculation and concern as to what this group is doing and what changes we have made either in our mode of operation or our concept of... | 96 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's going to have the long-term ranges in there and it makes some reference to-- | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | I mean the short-term ranges. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | We could refer to the improved telephonic system. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, Mark has said that he would go for a money market directive and I dislike them as much as he does. But to me something like 4 or 4-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent would make sense, so that we wouldn't let the aggregate fall below 4 or 4-1/2 percent without doing something about it. I think that's really the crucia... | 143 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, there is no reason we can't design a money market directive in the traditional sense with the understanding that if we get near the [limits] on either side [of the ranges] we won't really move until we consult. It's very simple. That will serve everybody's purpose, and then if something is happening in the econom... | 88 |
fomc | 1,979 | Not too well. That definitely seems a little too neutral. I like that less than just saying that we're going to stick with [a funds rate of] around 10 percent. | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we are going to even keel and we're going to have a money market directive, but we're going to have an understanding that we are not going to move the funds rate until we talk to each other. | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | In practice, I'm not sure it makes a lot of difference; obviously it's not going to be published for another month anyway. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | That raises another problem, though. You're testifying on the 20th of February, and I'm sure you're going to be questioned fairly closely. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, this information will not be published. They never have bothered us on that. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | They never bother you on the short-term rates? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. they really haven't: they've been very good about that. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | My problem is that there is a reference [to neutrality] in the directive but the fact is that I don't feel neutral. And to word the directive like that sounds as if we're operating entirely biased against any change at all and that the only thing that's going to [trigger a] change is the aggregates. It ignores the fore... | 95 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not sure I follow that. If this were a regular directive with ranges for fed funds and ranges for M1 and M2, why would it seem neutral? | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | Because it tells me that-- | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's tied in to the aggregates. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, that's my problem. My problem is that it's tied entirely to the aggregates when I'm not indifferent on whether [the funds rate] goes up or down. I think the adverse risks of [the funds rate] going down are greater, due to the foreign exchange situation, than the adverse risks of it going up. | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | The trouble with that argument, Paul, is that we have a directive out now that has the same characteristic. [Money growth is] below the bottom of the range we published and yet we haven't reduced the fed funds. | 44 |
fomc | 1,979 | Is the directive we have out now symmetrical or is it written in this asymmetrical way? | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | We've ignored the asymmetry. It was written with asymmetrical wording. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | I understand we've ignored the bottom limit but it has some asymmetrical language. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's money market on the down side and [refers to the] aggregates on the other. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay. That sounds all right to me. I'd want to repeat that performance. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right. Let's go around to the voting members and ask what you want to do. I'm not talking about the range now but I think we need to crystalize this one way or the other. Are we going to have a money market directive, are we going to have just an understanding, or are we going to have an asymmetrical directive or w... | 83 |
fomc | 1,979 | I could go either with the suggestion Bob Black made, which seems to me to capture-- | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay, that would be a money market. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | A money market directive with a 7-1/2 percent top on the range. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | We'll come to the top of the ranges in just one second. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Or I can go with the biased alternative where we have essentially a money market on the down side and aggregates on the up side. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay, the type we had last month. Dave. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I would hold the funds rate at 10 percent plus and consult if any of us feels that the aggregates are getting out of hand. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm sorry, I skipped Phil Coldwell; I just missed the initials here. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would revise it upward, Mr. Chairman. I would go with 10 to 10-1/4 percent as a range for the federal funds rate in the coming months primarily because I think now is the time we run the greatest danger of an additional inflationary problem. Down the road we may have some chance to reduce [the funds rate range]. | 72 |
fomc | 1,979 | You have a narrow bias upward. Chuck. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I would like an unbiased money market directive. I would accept some language about taking account of foreign exchange market developments but that's as much of a bias as I would want. | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | Nancy. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would take a money market directive with a funds rate range of 9-3/4 to 10-1/4 percent and consultation if the aggregates really get out of hand either way. I'd also have an eye on the foreign exchange market but [act] only upon consultation. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | And, Paul, you've expressed the view that you would prefer the asymmetric directive. Henry. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'd like something that, if the aggregates strengthen, would quickly raise the rate into the 10 to 10-3/4 percent range and wouldn't trigger [action] on the down side. So my preference, if it has to be done in an asymmetrical form, would be a money market directive on the down side--and I'd want a very low limit--and a... | 86 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mark | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think I'd like an unbiased-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | An unbiased money market directive? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | --but I'd like to retract what I said earlier; I think we have to have some aggregates in it. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob Mayo. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Surprisingly, I agree with Mark for a change. I think it would be a mistake, Mr. Chairman, to cut [the upper limit of the funds range1 from 10-1/2 to 10-1/4 percent. When it is published, it would give a wrong signal. | 62 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if I read this right, Ernie would accept the money market alternative, Dave would prefer just the consultation-- | 24 |
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