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fomc | 1,979 | You mean overall total debt equal to total balances. We have a large D-mark debt and we have yen balances. The $500 million will be much smaller than the D-mark debt. | 37 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, that would be true for today, assuming we come back to this subject. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | ?my other comments? Alan, we need approval on the rollover of some our maturing swaps, right? | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | I recommend that they be rolled over on maturity if we can't pay them off before. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Is everyone familiar with this? [Information on] this has been circulated. May we have approval of that? Hearing no dissents, it is so approved. I must say the vote on our short-range specifications in the directive was 9 to 1. We had a famous switch for the final count. | 62 |
fomc | 1,979 | Who switched? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul switched; Phil decided to be lonely. I thank you all for your patience. It has been a very difficult task to cope with this and we're breaking some new ground. I hope we can continue to make the process work to your satisfaction. We will now adjourn for lunch. | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. The time has arrived for our annual meeting. This is a special meeting because it completes the 12-month cycle [for Reserve Bank Presidents to serve as voting members]. Spring comes and the FOMC is reconstituted. I don't know if that is supposed to be a coincidence, but we are one da... | 240 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would propose [William Miller as Chairman and Paul Volcker as Vice Chairman]. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Could you elicit a second, Henry? | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | I second. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think you need to get a vote. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Would you like to approve the slate as proposed? Any objections? | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | No objections? The way you put the question the answer is "no" they wouldn't like to but "yes" they would! Now we will get down to something serious, the other officers DO you all have a list before you? No? I do. All right, I will ask the Secretary to read the list of proposed officers. MR. ALTMA". Secretary, Murray A... | 187 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are there any other suggestions or qualifications? All those in favor say "Aye." SEVERAL. Aye. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | Opposed? S o voted. Now, before the meeting, a number of items were sent to you that involve the continuation of various authorities [in their existing form], with the request that you indicate to us if you wished any of these to be placed on the agenda. We received no such indication and, unless I hear a contrary view... | 304 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.1 | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Scott. I should have mentioned at the outset, and will now, that we are pleased to have you here, Tom Gainor, for Mark Willes. I hope you will join in at any time in the discussion. At this point are there any questions or comments on Scott's report? Henry. | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | Scott, you mentioned the reaction that if the dollar goes down, the Fed steps in and if the dollar goes up, the Bundesbank steps in. Do you think the market views the rate as pegged in some sense? Are expectations built on that? | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't think there is any sense that the market feels we have fixed rates. There is a sense in the market that at current levels there is a great deal of resistance. I haven't heard anybody saying "pegged" as such. They just notice that if the rate [moves] 50 points, there is considerable resistance--quite often not b... | 100 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you think they perceive this as a conflict among the national policies? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Some people feel there is, yes. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Any other comments or questions? Thank you, Scott. We need a vote to ratify the transactions since the previous meeting. I understand [reports] have been circulated or are available. Is there any question? If there is no dissent, we will record the ratification of those transactions and move on to the domestic open mar... | 74 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.I | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Peter. Any questions or comments? Yes, Chuck. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Peter, the funds rate did average 10.21 percent in the week of March 14, according to the Bluebook. So do you think the market now perceives that as just an erroneously high number and is thinking of a 10 percent rate as again being the level--? | 59 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would say that the thinking is back to 10 percent to slightly higher. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Right where it was before. You [at the Desk] have overcome this entirely. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we have, yes. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Any other comments? We also need to ratify the transactions on the domestic side since the last meeting. The reports have been circulated. Any questions or comments? Hearing no dissent, we will record them as approved. Now, in December the procedure we followed worked extremely well and I thought we might try it again ... | 224 |
fomc | 1,979 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much, Jim. Are there questions of Jim before we turn to Steve? | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I ask just one, M r . Chairman? Jim, you mentioned the decline in contract awards. I presume you mean nonresidential. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Is it considerable and what kind is it? Is it in some [particular] kind of building? There is an offsetting development in the strength of durable goods orders. That's why I wanted to pursue it a bit. | 45 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. It's quite widespread. As you know, the series is highly erratic; it sometimes shows 50 percent increases or 40 percent declines. We had a 3 percent decline in December and a further 3 percent decline in January. And the fourth quarter in total in current dollars was only up 4 percent. So in real terms it-- | 71 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's drifting off. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | --has been drifting down. In general we have no [firm] idea of whether or not this reflects temporary developments, but it is something that we are paying attention to. We are quite cautious about the [outlook in the] general structures area which, as you know, had been coming along. | 61 |
fomc | 1,979 | It is in the structures area, not in electric generating or something like that in the nonbuilding area. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, it's in industrial structures. It's not the shopping centers. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Other questions? Let's turn to Steve. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I thought it might be useful for the Committee's discussion to analyze a little more closely recent developments in the money supply and bank credit. Basically, they appear to be giving somewhat conflicting signals. Growth in all the aggregates has slowed considerably--[the levels have] actuall... | 1,759 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thanks a lot! | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you for your decisiveness! Are there questions of Steve, besides what did he say? Dave. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think I understood. I'm not sure I agree. Steve, we did calculations similar to the ones you did, although not as sophisticated. trying to find what these other sources of funds might add to the aggregates--the money market funds, the RPs, and the ATS. We added them back in different ways and just didn't find enough ... | 202 |
fomc | 1,979 | President Eastburn, that may or may not be. The point that I would like to make on these measurement problems is that in 1975 and 1976, as an example, when we added back in 1-1/2 to 2 percentage points because we included the business saving accounts and all that in evaluating the money supply, I think that was wrong. ... | 254 |
fomc | 1,979 | Could I follow up with one more question? | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Certainly. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | The other part of my question is: How much validity is there to the idea that what is happening to money is supply induced and not demand induced? | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it's very difficult to give an answer to that, President Eastburn, because we don't control the supply of money and we make no effort to control it. | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | Supply in the real economy [sense or] just weakness in the-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I interrupt this dialogue to give you a flash? We always like to have some drama in these meetings! So if you turn to page 8 in part I of your Greenbook, I have data that have just flown in. The second column on page 8 shows the [nominal] GNP number at 15.0 percent for the fourth quarter of 1978; that has just been... | 185 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's a projection really. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | A projection, excuse me. It's not an estimate but a projection, for whatever it's worth. As you can see, the staff has 1 2 . 2 percent for nominal GNP; the Commerce Department is saying 10.6 percent. If you go across to the fourth column, the staff is now saying 3.0 percent [for real GNP]; the Commerce Department proje... | 135 |
fomc | 1,979 | I wouldn't have been if you hadn't given the figures ! | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | President Eastburn, the only way I think I can answer is to say that, as you know, the System does no more than accommodate to whatever amount of money the public wants to hold at today's interest rates. So in that sense we could always have more money [growth] if the System were to provide reserves more aggressively a... | 105 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have John Balles next [on my list] and then Larry Roos. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'll just pick up for a minute on the comment that Dave made. We've looked at these same numbers, Steve, and frankly, we come out more on Dave's side than yours. We have here an array of the different Ms going up to M7. And in a nutshell what the facts seem to say is that they've all been decelerating since last fall, ... | 422 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have no quarrel with that, President Balles. In terms of dimension, I would feel very confident that a minus 2 percent M1 in the first quarter is plus 1 percent, because I add the 3 percentage points for ATS. I feel reasonably confident that it's probably as much as plus 3 percentage points: and I have diminishing co... | 83 |
fomc | 1,979 | Larry. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | My questioning was going to parallel somewhat what John Balles said. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | To follow up on this, I keep forgetting Steve, MS still doesn't include money market funds or RPs, does it? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes it does. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Both? | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it ought to include them, netting out the CDs the money market funds hold. I'm not convinced that we've got it all measured exactly right. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Your footnotes and documents say that it includes both, Steve. Am I wrong? | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, netting out their certificates, and they mainly hold CDs. Of course, that's double counting not to net out the CDs . | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | Right, they should net them out | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, why don't we do a go-around before our break. As I said, I'd ask you to give your own ideas of how the economy is going and what you think the policy implications are. I forgot where we started last time so we'll just start with Paul and go around that way. | 59 |
fomc | 1,979 | How far do you want to take this, Mr. Chairman--up to the point of giving specifications? | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | NO, at this point, it's the qualitative direction you think [on policy] rather than specifications. Then after the break we'll come to those. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | Right, short of specifications | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if I look far enough ahead, Mr. Chairman, meaning through the year, I think the odds are better than 5 0 / 5 0 that we're going to run into a recession by [year-end], and I've thought that for some time. I think the odds are being increased by the oil situation and by what's going on in inflation generally. Havin... | 674 |
fomc | 1,979 | Chuck. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, last week I appeared before the House Subcommittee on Monetary Affairs to discuss monetary policy in the context of our Humphrey-Hawkins report, but the discussion soon turned to current monetary policy. Steve and I did our best to defend current monetary policy before the Subcommittee. The reason I menti... | 1,038 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Chuck. Nancy. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I've looked over the numbers and I've looked over the projections and I also think we're in the final quarters of the boom. I had the staff put together for me a variety of indicators in the last three quarters before a peak. One thing that stands out is that they're never the same. There is very little s... | 374 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Nancy. Bob. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhat less optimistic than the staff. Like many, we've been impressed by the strength we've had in the economy. It has been much greater up until now, as far as the statistics show, than we had expected. But I'm becoming increasingly concerned by the appearance of scattered signs that we fre... | 578 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bob. Willis. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, a sobering exercise at a time like this is to go back to the first quarter of last year and use our models or any other approach and ask oneself what conditions would produce a negative rate of growth in money supply in the first quarter of this year. We get astronomical interest rates and a lot of othe... | 199 |
fomc | 1,979 | The latter they can always do. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay. Then we divert more of our oil supplies to producing electricity; with the shutdown of the atomic plants in this area, I don't quite know what this means. Another pothole I would call to your attention is the fact that we focus pretty much on the domestic scene in terms of our analysis. Now, the international sit... | 375 |
fomc | 1,979 | Did you say the demand for coal is weak? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, weak | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's the one place where it's quite weak. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would say I end up confused in my outlook; I think the uncertainty level is really quite high. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Willis. So far it has been a very cheerful report! Now we come to Dave. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, before I start, could I ask you a question? Is there anything that you would care to say about the discussions going on in the Administration currently? | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't know that there's anything I am able to say. The President is giving very careful consideration to making some decisions about energy. He hopes to do so by the end of the month and then announce them. I think he is perhaps trying to bite off an awfully large number of issues. I don't know whether he'll end up d... | 201 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was impressed by the Vice President's comment, I believe over the weekend, in which he mentioned monetary policy and continued restraint on the monetary front as being important. I wondered if the Administration might be starting to put us in the forefront of-- | 49 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think the Administration is frustrated. There's nothing much they can do in the fiscal area now that would have much impact [in 19791. The deficit for this year is going to be less in any case, mainly because inflation is higher and, therefore, revenue flows will be higher. And there has been some shortfall of spendi... | 167 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, my view could be summarized by reporting on a meeting that we had last week with some business people and [other contacts]. The discussion around the table was very optimistic about current conditions, almost uniformly so, until I took a [poll] asking who thought there would be a recession this year. And about th... | 187 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much. Bones. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, I, too, share the feeling that some business weakness, but not anything major, is likely early next year. I recognize that no two periods are exactly parallel, but history suggests that some things we experienced in '73 and '74 are coming back. Certainly, we are seeing a lot of anxiety about the prices ... | 308 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bones. Larry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, my position is essentially reflected on this button that I'm wearing which reads-- | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | I must need glasses, I guess. All my life I've never had glasses but I can't quite make that out. | 23 |
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