Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,979 | That's not the question, though, Alan. The question is: Is it the Manager's prerogative to carry this up to a full $1 billion without consultation even with the Subcommittee? | 39 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, as you know, we report daily to the Subcommittee on what we have done. We are not without surveillance on any of this. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | If I may add to this-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, Henry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, there is pretty close contact [between the Manager and the Subcommittee]. I would certainly expect, if operations of that order of magnitude or anything remotely resembling that were in prospect, that prior conversations would have taken place. So-- | 49 |
fomc | 1,979 | Then why not make it subject to prior approval, if there have been prior conversations? | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Because the Subcommittee is sometimes hard to get together. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | In that case, the Chairman-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | The Chairman can act [for] the Subcommittee. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's what it says. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | We can do that. I think that reduces the flexibility somewhat. The Chairman, too, may not be easily accessible so I don't see a great deal of risk here. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | If the Chairman is not accessible, does somebody substitute for the Chairman? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | I guess that's the Vice Chairman | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | If you can't, [then] you get the Subcommittee or the Vice Chairman. You could have the Chairman not there and the rest of the Subcommittee [available], couldn't you? MR. ALTMA". We've had one occasion when the Chairman of the Committee was not available and, as a matter of the fact, the Vice Chairman of the Committee w... | 95 |
fomc | 1,979 | But in the first instance if the Chairman wasn't there and the rest of the Subcommittee were available-- | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you all clear on what we are talking about now? There could be no more than $300 million in one day, right? And we are talking about a cumulation of $1 billion between meetings. We couldn't run this up [to $1 billion] in one day, Phil, because at $300 million a day we would need three full days, or more precisely 3... | 145 |
fomc | 1,979 | If $300 million is right for the daily limit, and I think they need something like that flexibility by the day, it's hard to see that three days of operations [could occur1 without formally figuring the-- | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | We will do whatever the Committee wants. We can cut this back to $500 million or whatever you think, but I don't think it represents a serious problem. | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I don't either, Mr. Chairman. I just wanted to hear this sort of discussion. It has helped me. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it's procedurally poor. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it is, too, but it's even worse on the next page. I don't think it's desirable for the Subcommittee to authorize an open position above $1 billion. The full Committee ought to look at an open position change above $1 billion. | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | I just have to disagree because we have had to suspend these rules when we got into difficulty. Now you want to put them in so we can suspend them again if we get into difficulty. The only way we could operate on the day we did $1 billion dollars in one day was to have some authority to do s o . So on that day we did s... | 151 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I don't disagree with $1-112 billion, Mr. Chairman, but I think the Subcommittee ought to be formally involved before we get to $1 billion, maybe at $600 million. | 41 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you want to cut it to $750 million? | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Say $ 6 0 0 million, or 2 days-- | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay, two days or $600 million is fine. Does that suit everybody? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | We can live with almost anything, but if we run into trouble, we'll come back. The thing that frightens me the most, Mr. Chairman, is that if we get a sudden huge capital conversion and the Germans come in and offer us, say, $350 million, I would much prefer to be able to say yes right then and there--and [not] say I h... | 100 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, Alan, when it goes up to $ 3 0 0 or $400 million after one day's operation, it would be possible to go to the Subcommittee and get prior approval. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we can do it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's all right. We keep some leeway. We can operate that way. With that amendment, to $600 million, may we have your approval? Any other questions or comments? I don't want to cut this short, but hearing none-- | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | I will not vote for the $1-1/2 billion. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Does anyone else feel negatively about that? Certainly, if we get back into really active trading again, it could run that [much]. | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | I, for one, would feel that they need the leeway because it's just too cumbersome to get the Committee together when caught in the heat of battle. We can't get into that kind of-- | 39 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are there any other questions on that? All those in favor say "aye." SEVERAL. Aye. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Opposed? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | So voted. I believe that we have only one other item unless there were questions on the other three parts of agenda item 14. I assume that those with no changes and this one little minor change are acceptable. Is that correct? Hearing no dissent, that's approved. The next thing is to confirm that our next meeting is on... | 90 |
fomc | 1,979 | At least promptness is worth something. Accordingly, we will proceed with the agenda. The first item of business is to approve the minutes of the last meeting. I believe they have been circulated. Are there any corrections or comments? Hearing none, we will report those as approved. Turning to foreign currency operatio... | 81 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm sorry Scott can't be here to make this report because it's very near and dear to his heart. It's rather historic. [Statement--seeAppendix.] | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much, Alan. Questions or comments? Chuck. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Alan, had there not been all this intervention, do you believe that the dollar would have been substantially higher? | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Substantially higher, yes indeed | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | That is, it wasn't supply bringing forth its own demand? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | The fact that we were there and willing to [intervene] probably increased the flow. But I think we would have had a substantially different exchange rate effect if we had not been intervening at all and if the Europeans had not been intervening at all. | 52 |
fomc | 1,979 | So speculators against the dollar might have been squeezed in the absence of this intervention, I suppose. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, they might have been squeezed more if we had not intervened. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | Henry. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Alan, in terms of the possible magnitudes of these movements, you remember what happened to the United Kingdom a couple of years ago: There was a tremendous inflow into sterling and they held the rate [for a time]; eventually, after taking in $10 or $15 billion in reserves, they had to let the rate go. Do you see any p... | 78 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, there's always a possible parallel. If we try to put a complete lid on the rate, one or two things will happen: Either we will have to acquire a lot of currencies or we will so convince the market that there is no upside risk in the dollar that the flows will stop. I'm not quite clear which would happen; it could... | 77 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob Black. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Alan, what do you think the reaction would be in exchange markets if the aggregates should come in weak and we nudged the federal funds rate down a little? | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think the market has been quite favorably impressed by the fact that, despite weak aggregates, the System has stayed steady in the boat as far as the funds rate is concerned. I think a change in that pattern would have a negative effect on the exchange market. How big it would be I really don't know. | 63 |
fomc | 1,979 | You think they would pay more attention to the federal funds rate, though, than the behavior of the aggregates? | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think they would. The market is more geared to interest rates than it is to aggregates because interest rates have a real meaning for currency flows. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | Phil Coldwell. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Alan, what theory of intervention are you working under now? Do you just buy back enough to pay off [foreign currency debt], peg the rate, or bend with market forces? What sort of strategy are you working under? | 45 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let me tell you what strategy Alan is working under. It has been a consistent one from November 1 [of last year], which is that we would move in depth in both directions to avoid disorderliness in the market. That's what we have been doing consistently, despite people who pressure us from time to time to do something e... | 67 |
fomc | 1,979 | Would you say that there would have been disorderly strength in the dollar? | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, I think it would have been a disorderly market on the up side, which is clearly possible. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it's a breakthrough then. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, indeed. Notice what happened when the Bank of Japan raised its discount rate. The yen weakened against the powerful dollar. I'm sorry to interrupt but I wouldn't want Alan to have to defend his own posture because it's one that he has been working under in coordination with us. And this is what we have been trying... | 71 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, Nancy. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Where do you think the dollar is going now? Do you expect it to stabilize or do you expect the upward pressures to continue? | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, in the last week or so the flows slowed. There has been no new impetus to it. Part of the reason was the fact that the market got the perception that the Germans didn't want to see the dollar appreciate any more against the mark. That may be overcome, depending on what happens, and we may again get a reoccurrence... | 88 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much. We now need to ratify the transactions since the last meeting. I believe you all have the reports. Are there any comments or questions or objections? Hearing none, we will record the ratification of those transactions. Now we will turn to domestic operations. Of course, we have had great drama in t... | 98 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't know if I will live up to the excitement of that billing, Mr. Chairman, although the delay in [raising] the debt ceiling certainly did have an impact on operations and on Treasury financing during the month. [Statement--see Appendix. 1 | 52 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Peter. Questions or comments? Henry. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | With the new wider distribution of Treasury bills, do you feel that the dangers of inadequate collateral for RPs are substantially reduced? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | At the moment there is certainly ample collateral around, but some of those bills will be maturing later this week and next week, so we could get back into a situation of scarce collateral. | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | Nancy | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | was the heavy sell-off of foreign holdings for the swap operations or was it also to provide funds for that market? | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Both were going on. There were swap repayments, but also foreign countries were undertaking intervention and, as I understand it, they had to liquidate holdings of Treasury bills to raise the dollars they needed. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | Most of the $5-1/2 billion was for the intervention? | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | The greater part of it was for intervention, yes. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Chuck. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Peter, after these fluctuations over the last six weeks or so, how would you characterize the short-term markets--the short-term government market and the short-term private market--in relationship to the funds rate? That is, do you think the relationship is about normal or are rates high or low relative to the funds r... | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | At the moment there's a temporary bulge in dealers' holdings of very short-term issues, particularly of Treasury bills, so I think the day-to-day financing costs are toward the high end of some range of variation. But I expect that to be transitory; those rates will probably come down in the next couple of weeks. | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | So the government rates may be a little high relative to the funds rate, but the private rates--those on commercial paper and CDs and so forth--are low, aren't they? | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | CDs have been under some special influence because banks have been willing to pay off CDs, and they have obtained more of their financing recently from Eurodollar takedowns. The commercial paper rate seems to me to be about in a normal relationship to the funds rate. | 54 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you all. Again we need a vote to ratify the transactions. The reports have been circulated. Are there questions, comments, or reservations? Hearing none, we will record those as approved. We will turn now to the staff report on the economic situation. Jim Kichline. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Jim. Let's take a few moments to see if there are any questions about this before we turn to Steve. Yes, Phil. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | In the forecast of federal and state expenditures, Jim, would you give me a little more explanation than I have seen on the negatives and positives in the first and second quarters? Are there some offsetting jumps of sizable magnitude? | 45 |
fomc | 1,979 | We think the developments in the state and local area reflect largely a weather effect related to a slowdown in construction expenditures and capital outlays. Employment in the state and local sector declined, or was very weak at least, in the first two months and picked up in March. So I think what is happening here i... | 166 |
fomc | 1,979 | Just looking at your pattern, you have a positive on federal expenditures in the first quarter and a heavy negative on state and local [spending] and the reverse of that in the second quarter, with a heavy negative on the federal side and a pretty heavy positive on [state and local]. They just happen to cancel out. | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | State and local is weather-related and federal reflects CCC payments. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | There was a big CCC payout in the fourth quarter--I'm sorry. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, go ahead Jerry | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | This kind of sawtooth pattern drives us insane, but it is very common. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mark. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you. I just wanted to ask how you treated the impact of decontrol of oil prices and how that fed through to the forecast for inflation. Was it any different than you would have treated it if the same amount of increase came simply as a result of an OPEC [price] increase? Is my question clear? | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | We did not treat it differently in terms of the price impact. On the real side, there are important differences. I believe I know what you are getting at. I think the question is what the percentage passthrough is and whether or not we are simply talking about shifting profits from refiners to crude oil producers, or h... | 112 |
fomc | 1,979 | We show more inflation impact than the Administration does? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have used 0.5, which is what you've used. They have used much less, I believe. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | [They have used] 0 . 3 . | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, in addition to that, there is another factor and I don't pretend to know exactly how to [take it into account]. When OPEC increases its prices, it does so without an increase in supply. In the case of decontrol there's at least a hope that it is going to have a supply-side effect. When one works that through the ... | 94 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.