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fomc
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Yes.
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Okay. Bob Black.
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I would go along with it, Mr. Chairman. I would like to point out that with the 4 to 8 percent M1 range and a money market [directive], we would not do anything until we got a rate as low as 4 percent on M1. I'd rather see that [trigger] a little higher, but I can live with it. If one looks at those charts, that's not-...
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It shows a tick up.
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It's a tick up, but I'd go with it.
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Phil.
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No, I think the ceiling on the funds rate is too low.
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Bones.
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I find it a little difficult too, Mr. Chairman.
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Which part of it didn't you like?
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The funds range is just entirely too narrow. I think the aggregates ranges are fine.
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Bob Mayo.
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I'd prefer the 10-112 percent upper limit. I don't care that much about the 9-112 versus 9-314 percent [on the bottom].
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Chuck.
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Well, I would buy it for four weeks, but I find it too tight.
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Nancy.
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I could buy it. I think we should stay just where we are at this point.
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Henry.
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No, I can live with the aggregates, but I'd like to see the funds rate a little higher.
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It looks as if we're going to have a very close vote today because we have those who think this is too tight and those who think it's too loose. We have three who indicated they could accept it and five who indicated they couldn't. Of those, John, you would prefer it to be less restrictive?
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Let me say something here because I realize we have to have a compromise between those who feel the current proposal is too easy and those who feel it's too tight. The one thing that could be changed so I could go along with it would be to move from a money market directive to an aggregates directive. At least that wou...
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With a quarter point range on the funds rate?
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Well--
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It changes the trigger point.
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Yes, but not much.
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What would we do in the case of a tie?
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The Chairman decides, obviously.
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A plurality--
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Maybe the thing to do is to stay with 9-3/4 and 10-112 percent with the understanding that we can consult. That would get both ends of the spectrum.
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You mean just continue the present fed funds range?
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But you said widen the range. M S . TEETERS. No, [retain] the one we've been operating with, the 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent, which gets both ends of the spectrm.
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Yes, that would make a lot of sense.
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I think so, too.
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All right, let's try 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent. Is that where we are now? M S . TEETERS. Yes.
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What was our directive last time? MR. ALTMA". We didn't have a range. We had "maintaining" the prevailing rate provided the aggregates stayed within their ranges.
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That's what I thought.
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Oh, really? I thought we had a range.
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No, we had no range. It's one of the few times when we had no range at all. However, let's try it with a 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent range now.
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Is this with a money market directive?
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From what 1 hear, let's try this on an aggregates directive first.
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And that means no change in the prevailing federal funds rate?
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That means we stay where we are, the prevailing rate. We have 4 to 8 percent for M1, 3-l/2 to 7-1/2 percent for M2, 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent for the funds range and we stay around 10 percent plus--10 to 10-1/8 is the maneuvering room--and an aggregates directive. Let's try it again. Paul. Vice Chairman Volcker NO Presid...
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I would vote for that, which means we would have a 6 to 4 vote. Okay, let's take a final vote. Secretary, would you read what it is we're proposing? MR. ALTMA". The M1 range is 4 to 8 percent and the M2 range is 3-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent; the funds range is 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent, with the initial objective at the prevai...
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And a money market directive?
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An aggregates directive.
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Chairman Miller Yes Vice Chairman Volcke!r NO President Balles Yes President Black Yes Governor Coldwell No President Kimbrel NO President Mayo Yes Governor Partee Yes Governor Teeters Yes Goveror Wallich NO
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Okay, we have a vote. There's some other business for the meeting, I think. MR. ALTMA". Yes.
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The next item is the consideration of the Manager's recommendation with respect to foreign currency operations. Alan Holmes.
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[Statement--see Appendix.]
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Thank you very much, Alan. Any questions or comments? Henry.
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Alan, do you have the feeling that the Germans would want us to use Treasury funds raised in their market to repay swaps rather than go to a second renewal?
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Yes, I think the Germans would like it and the Treasury would not; so there's a bit of an impasse there.
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Yes, I wouldn't either. I think the Treasury is right.
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Any other questions or comments?
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What would be the effect of that anyway, Henry?
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Well, we use up the easily disposable money where nobody can say "no"when we want to use it and we put ourselves in their hands. And they can restrain us--
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We can draw on the swap but we have to get their concurrence.
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I see.
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It cuts down our flexibility.
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I agree with you. It's undesirable.
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Particularly in light of the
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Other questions or comments to Alan? Next, we have distributed a memorandum from Peter Sternlight and Bob Mannion on the Lending of Securities. Unless there are any comments or dissents, we could approve that.
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May I raise a question, Mr. Chairman?
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Yes.
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In view of the rising volume in the lending area it seems to me that we ought to be raising our interest rates on this, perhaps to a 2 to 10 percent range instead of the current range.
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Well, we have a differential now, Governor, and I think it's one that generally induces the dealers to look elsewhere before they come to us, although as you mentioned there has been an increase this past year. I think that is largely just because of general shortages of collateral in the market.
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What is that differential customarily, Peter?
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We are charging about double what they would have to pay elsewhere.
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About double?
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And with an escalating scale if they don't pay off [on time]; that's the point. MR. COLDWELL(?). My only point is that we are starting to see an enlargement of this and I would raise questions as to the desirability of our providing more and more [of these securities loans]. I think we can provide a little more disince...
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I'd like to support this, because it seems to me it would induce greater effort on the part of the market to find collateral in advance and be prepared [to meet obligations]. It would also be helpful should the float become very large again, so we're not a cheap lender of last resort anyway.
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Well, we're not a lender of last resort, Governor Wallich; as you know, we will lend only in the case of a failure to a dealer. They just can't come and borrow from us for any purpose.
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Yes, I see your point
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But they do come and borrow. The question is the degree to which they push to try to cover [their shorts1 before they come to us. A little more price disincentive might--
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Well, the difference between 3/4 percent and 1-1/2 percent is already a substantial incentive for dealers to try to find collateral anywhere. I think over this past year, with the growth in the use of the repurchase agreement by banks, there has just been that much less collateral in the market. I don't think that's a ...
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I don't know that this is a religious issue. I can see charging a little more but it's perhaps a peculiarly bad time, given the unfortunate profitability situation of government securities dealers for some time now. I wonder whether we couldn't go along as we are now without throwing a rock in the bucket.
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Do you want to review this in six months instead of a year? Why don't we put it on the agenda for a 6-month review and approve it the way it is instead of waiting for the full year? And we will see how it goes.
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I would like to have a little study done on the question of what [a rate change] would perhaps do.
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Quantify the idea of raising the margin, and see what the effect would be.
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Okay, on that basis, may we have your approval? Thank you very much. The next item is a review of the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations. Has that been distributed?
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Yes, it's attached to the--
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Is there any change? Is there any dissent from approving it? Hearing none, we will approve it. Item 14 of the agenda involves a, b, c, and d--the review of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations, the Foreign Currency Directive, the Procedural Instructions with Respect to Foreign Currency Operations, and the ...
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We have reached the alternate procedural 1imits--
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That's "c" and we will come to that in just a second. Any problems on agenda items 14a, b, and d? There are minor changes in "b." But the changes involve taking out the word "proposed,"which used to be before the words "IMF article IV." That's because it's no longer proposed; it's now effective. That's a big change! I ...
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I have just one slight worry, though I'm not going to oppose approval. In " a "I have no objection to the $300 million on any day, but I think this is--
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No, we are not there yet.
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Oh, we are not on '"a"?
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Isn't that "c"? Have you changed them on me?
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It's attachment A; that is the '"A"[he's referring to], Mr. Chairman.
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All right, then let's take the one that has several proposed changes, the Procedural Instructions with respect to Foreign Currency Operations, and deal with that. Then we'll pick up the others, which don't have changes, other than the minor one that I mentioned. Alan, do you or Steve want to comment on this?
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Well, I think the memo that we put out ought to be self explanatory. I am not one who particularly likes daily limits on operations, but I can see why members of the Committee would like them, and I think those that are being proposed are ones we can live with for the time being. If we do run into problems operating un...
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Steve, any comment?
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NO, I have nothing to add.
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Are you all familiar with what is being proposed? We went without limits for a while except the $ 8 billion limit on the total position. What's being proposed now is that we limit the changes between meetings. Would you review it for me?
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Under the procedural instructions, paragraph 1A says that the Manager shall clear with the Subcommittee, or with the Chairman if the Chairman believes that consultation with the Subcommittee is not feasible in the time available, any operation that would result in a change in the System's overall open position in forei...
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I think you all have had a chance to review [this memo]. Are there questions now? Bob, you had a question.
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Yes, my only question is on paragraph l A , Mr. Chairman. The $300 million on any one day doesn't bother me; I'm a little uneasy about the $1 billion since the most recent meeting. This is a very volatile [market] and I guess my question is, Alan: Do you really need that much room on the cumulative amount?
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Without contacting the Subcommittee?
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Yes.
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I would think, Mr. Chairman, that if we have an opportunity to pay a billion dollars in Deutschemark debt between Committee meetings, we ought to go ahead and do it. Now, if we are intervening heavily on the other side, obviously, we are going to be reporting this [intervention] regularly to the Subcommittee and to the...
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