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fomc | 1,979 | Yes, we have to look at the 7 and who wants the-- | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | 1'11 go with your aggregates if you go with my interest rate. You can go another half percent-- | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | We have to resolve this. How do I do it? I have to take some votes here on several options. Just on M1, I'm going to try 3 to 8, 4 to 8, and 3 to 7. Let's start with 3 to 7. How many of those who vote would buy 3 to 1 percent? One, two, three, four, five. I'll buy it, which makes six. Well, wait a minute; I may not. Co... | 117 |
fomc | 1,979 | In preference to 3 to 7 ? | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Which one of the three--3 to 7, 3 to 8 , or 4 to 8. We're going to use those three choices for a moment; take only one. At 3 to 7 percent, I had five hands up. All right now 3 to 8 percent. John. | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | 1'11 [change] to 3 to 8. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right, we'll change it; we have 4 for 3 to 7 percent. Right? And 3 to 8 percent suits me. That's two. Okay, let's try 4 to 8 percent. That's two. That adds up to 8, so two people didn't vote; two people want something different. All you folks at 3 to 7 go to 3 to 8, and all you folks at 4 to 8 go to 3 to 8. Okay? N... | 216 |
fomc | 1,979 | Isn't that right where we started Out? | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, it's changed; it's absolutely changed. How many tentatively [can accept that], without voting [officially]. Paul. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | John. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, but for the other reason. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Which reason? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | The money market directive | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay. Bob? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I agree with John, Mr. Chairman | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Phil Coldwell. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bones Kimbrel. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes sir. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob Mayo. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. M S . TEETERS. Yes. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | So it's four and five. What if we change it to an aggregates directive? Let's try again with an aggregates directive. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | There we are again! I suggest we go to the next subject and have lunch. I knew we were going to have no directive today! Okay. The next agenda item is--. I forgot to tell you that I have some information that will not be public until this afternoon so you're not to disclose it, but the housing starts for February have ... | 128 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | No news to you. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Maybe after that we can reach a consensus. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you want to vote again? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | What would it take to get two aggregates directive people on line for the [money market] directive? | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Four is the lower limit for me. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | What is? Four? | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's certainly better. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right, let's try that one. I knew we'd get a compromise here. I threatened to leave it [and stay with the existing directive]. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're going to try 4 to 8 percent on Ml? | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Murray, we're going to take one more stab at a vote. Then we're going on to the next topic. We're going to use the same fed funds range, which is 9-3/4 to 10-1/2 percent and [initially] we're going to maintain the present fed funds rate of 10 to 10-1/8 percent; we're going to have M1 at 4 to 8 percent and M2 at 4 to 8-... | 164 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'll vote yes, so the vote is 7 to 3. It's sort of simple! Would any of the dissenters like to change their minds? | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you have an April housing starts figure for me? | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | This is the water shed. The fever has broken and next month we will have a unanimous vote. Now we will go to the next subject, which is consideration of the Manager's recommendation with respect to foreign currency operations. Alan Holmes . | 47 |
fomc | 1,979 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much, Alan. Quite an unwinding job. Now we need to have a discussion of the question that was brought before the Committee previously and that is holding balances in foreign currencies. The Committee previously authorized the holding of up to $500 million in foreign currencies. But it was the desire of t... | 144 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I believe the two supporting memoranda provide the Committee with the various arguments in some depth--with some differing points of view--and I don't feel it is necessary to review those arguments orally. Mr. Holmes and I have recommended raising the informal limit on balances to the neighborhood of $2 b... | 235 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you have a question for Steve, before we hear from Alan? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | No sir, I'll wait. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I don't have very much to add. The only thing I would stress is that because we have been in the forefront of this activity for a very short period of time we were able to buy $2-3/4 billion in foreign currency. Now, that type of period may not repeat itself, yet it could. So to give us flexibility I woul... | 172 |
fomc | 1,979 | Fine. Thank you very much, Alan. Now, Larry, we will come back to your question or comment. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I'm concerned about one bit of verbiage where reference is made to two possible policies. One says u . S . policy is aimed at countering short-run disorderly market conditions. Then there is explicit wording in the Morton-Truman memo which says that if U.S. policy is also designed to resist exchange marke... | 140 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't think anyone is suggesting pegging, but the whole November program was based on the thought that the dollar had gotten out of line, it had gone [down] too far. Now, that is a very rough judgment. It's not pegging. | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | Whose judgment is that, Alan? | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that was a collective judgment of the Administration, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | I might mention, Larry, that at Henry's suggestion the staff prepared some data on a series of currencies, looking from 1973 to date at price adjusted exchange rate indices. In other words, the weighted average [exchange rates] would be adjusted by CPI indices. It might be worth sending this to the members of the Commi... | 316 |
fomc | 1,979 | I see. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Next [on my list of people who want to comment] is Chuck, then Bones, Phil, and Henry. Chuck. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I have real concern about the Federal Reserve holding substantial foreign currency balances. I don't think it's the appropriate thing for us to do. I've never liked the idea of U.S. institutions in general holding large foreign balances. [It means they] aren't financing their primary activity of spending ... | 264 |
fomc | 1,979 | Government securities. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | The one [reference] says government securities; the other doesn't. The other says foreign currency securities. Then [the memo1 goes on to say that we can get around the law. I don't think that's an appropriate thing for the Federal Reserve to do--to find a way to get around the law. If we have a need for relatively sma... | 163 |
fomc | 1,979 | Could we have some clarification of the legal point? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | What is the legal point? Paul is asking about the legal point of holding foreign currencies. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | We cannot hold foreign government liabilities | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Just government, right? | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | We can hold private-- | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | My assumption always has been that [the authority to hold foreign government securities] was not put in the Act originally because in those days there was not much deficit financing; there weren't many foreign government securities. What [central banks] held in those days were acceptances, deposits or some other form. ... | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | I am not a lawyer but my impression is that the Act described what was typically held by a central bank and it has not been revised over these many years. | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, why the prohibition on foreign government securities if it is-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | There weren't any. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | It just wasn't listed. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Did they prohibit everything that there wasn't anything of? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | They listed what we could hold. Is that what you're saying? | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's the absence of a security that didn't exist. It didn't exist so it's not on the list. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Oh. so they didn't prohibit it? | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's not prohibited. It's just not listed as one of the assets that we might hold, primarily I think because none [existed] at the time the Act was written. | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's quite different, I think. There was no expressed desire to prohibit. There were just no such securities around, so they didn't list them. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it's that simple. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bones. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, maybe I'm [approaching] the problem from a slightly different angle but I think it may be prudent action to acquire some of these [currencies]. My question, though, is that I'm not sure I followed Alan when he was suggesting the dimensions. The numbers you suggested were $500 million and then $2 billion. ... | 76 |
fomc | 1,979 | As you recall--1 think it was at the February meeting--we had been running with an informal limit of $150 million. There was nothing formal about that [limit], but it was an informal one that we had always respected at the Desk. In February I noted that we were making some progress in repaying [our swap debt] and I sug... | 170 |
fomc | 1,979 | That, of course, was built up when the dollar was weak. Now we're going to build up a risk when the dollar is strong. | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. We're trying to be a little more symmetrical on our asset and liability sides. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Phil Coldwell. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I don't resist the idea of building up a small kitty. I do have some resistance to the idea of an excessive amount in a single currency. So I think we ought to limit the amount in a single currency to a billion dollars, partly to limit potential exchange losses and partly to avoid pressures in terms of th... | 306 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Phil. Henry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I believe we should think very carefully about what we're doing here; $2 billion is not a large amount and can be a perfectly good means of enhancing our operations. It could be the first step into a totally different world. If we ever got to a very bullish dollar situation, which is not inconceivable, and we wan... | 439 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Henry. Paul. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, what I have to say is more or less along the lines of what Henry was just talking about. Let me state it perhaps slightly differently. I don't see this as an issue at this point. It may be a nice issue but I assume we're not being asked now to go out and acquire a substantial amount of foreign currencies to hold ... | 250 |
fomc | 1,979 | It seems to me that what has been recommended is by no means a suggestion that we become symmetrical. When we were talking about going short we were talking about some $20 billion dollars--more than that actually [including] the Treasury and ourselves--that we would borrow and have to pay back. If we were being symmetr... | 81 |
fomc | 1,979 | Between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve- - | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | We would have $30 billion on one side and $30 billion on the other side, a $60 billion band. No one would want to do that. I don't have a strong feeling on this, but the question before the Committee is: Do we at least want to deal in what is less than one swap line--in a series of currencies on the long side--as a way... | 284 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, our suggestion was that at the moment we would be contemplating three currencies. But we would assume that the possibility of the Desk holding minor amounts of other currencies would not be excluded. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | But it wouldn't be the world's mix of currencies, I take it. | 14 |
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