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fomc | 1,979 | What period are you talking about? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | This was the fourth quarter of 1978 over the fourth quarter of 1977. We were meeting in March of [19781 and [since] that time we haven't done any update. Unemployment at the end of the period, in the 4th quarter of 1978, was 5.8 percent. The staff had forecast 5.9 percent. And five of the participants had 5 . 8 percent... | 229 |
fomc | 1,979 | But not knowing the real GNP! | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | There were four of us who had that also. In the future when you consider the staff forecasts and criticize them, remember they're not too bad compared to those made by the rest of us. So we turn to you now, Jim, for your new forecast and how you see things. | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't know what to do after that! | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | I assume the staff put these figures together! | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, we didn't want the staff [of the Research Division] to do this; Murray did it so we'd have an objective [observer]. The other members of the staff didn't even know it was being done. | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | [Statement--seeAppendix.] That completes my presentation, Mr. Chairman. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Jim. Are there any questions before we go on? Yes, Larry. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, do you have any specific figure that you are using to reflect the effect of energy price increases on inflation? Have you quantified that even in a rough way? | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're talking about in something like the deflator? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. What has happened? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, in the second quarter of this year, for example, our estimate of the business product deflator in total is 10.3 percent. If we exclude food prices, in the second quarter of this year it goes down to 10 percent. Excluding food and energy, it's 8-1/4 percent. So the energy component [accounts for] about 1-3/4 perce... | 131 |
fomc | 1,979 | Phil Coldwell | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, I assume you saw that note sent to me concerning the parallelism between 1973-74 and 1978-79 on retail sales and real sales versus the peaks and troughs. How do you interpret that? | 46 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sent by whom? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | It was sent to me by one of the members of Jim's staff in response to a question I asked at a Board meeting. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it has been distributed to all the Governors. I would interpret the data with some degree of confusion, I guess, in the sense that there are a number of major differences. A s I believe the memo pointed out, retail sales peaked in February of 1973-- | 56 |
fomc | 1,979 | On a real basis | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | --on a real basis, which was about 10 months before the trough in economic activity. The peak in real terms [in the current cycle] would be December of 1978, so we've experienced four months of declining sales. But there are a number of major differences. One is the behavior of consumers. In that earlier period, the sa... | 173 |
fomc | 1,979 | One point that struck me was the percent of real disposable income being devoted to energy and food. The data show a quantum jump in '73 and it looks as if we're getting another one now, although the figures aren't complete nor are they [measured] in precisely the same fashion. | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | But what is really impressive is the reduction over the years in the fraction [of disposable income] people have to spend on food and gasoline. Since the ' 6 0 s standards of living have risen enormously in that respect and what's happening now is just a small catch-up. | 56 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we need higher prices for food! | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Higher for [food] and for gas. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | John Balles. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, we've had this unexpected bad news for the first quarter in terms of real growth at about . 4 percent. It's evident that real final demand actually declined and that what skimpy growth we had was in fact in inventories. In view of that and of the weak news we've gotten so far for the second quarter for those serie... | 136 |
fomc | 1,979 | John, you mean a bounceback to 2.2 percent? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, a bounceback. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | A hop? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | One major area to point to is business fixed investment. The first quarter was quite depressed in the construction area [but] the March numbers came roaring along with a bounceback. I would suspect that in the second quarter both shipments and, importantly, nonresidential construction activity will average substantiall... | 346 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, the information on durable goods orders will be released at 2:30 today. Do you have those data yet? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. We've tried--unsuccessfully--forthe last two months to get them and have not been able to. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | They will show a significant decline in orders in April. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Including defense? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't have the details. Overall it is quite a significant decline. Bob Mayo. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Jim, to what extent do your figures embrace the latest increases in crude [oil] prices by the individual OPEC countries? And, secondly, do you allow anything for the increased pressure on the oil companies to deal in effect in the black market on the spot market? | 61 |
fomc | 1,979 | well, let me [defer to] Ted to answer the first question. With regard to your second one, I don't know quite how to answer that. Implicitly we have built in huge increases in crude oil prices and we have also built in a change in Department of Energy regulations on the pricing as well as pricing between various grades ... | 166 |
fomc | 1,979 | But you feel that has already been built into your forecast? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was going to answer that in part, President Mayo. The forecast went to bed a little over ten days ago or so, and in the Greenbook we had forecast a fourth quarter-over-fourth quarter increase of 23-1/2 percent on the O P E C market for crude adjusted, compared with a little under 21 percent in the previous [Greenbook... | 116 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's all? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, to the extent that we've kept track of the increase in the surcharge, which we've tried to do, [that is our estimate]. CHAIRMAN MILLER. Frank | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I just want to say that I am pleased that Jim had such a good record last year because I have a very strong feeling that his record is not going to be as good in the next twelve months. It seems to me that we have--CHAIRMAN MILLER. Do you want me to tell you your record? | 69 |
fomc | 1,979 | It wasn't so good in the last twelve months. It seems to me that we have a classic cyclical decline; the [evidence] is almost overwhelming. And I think the latest piece of evidence that you cited--that there was a [big] decline in durable goods orders is the last straw. Now, the staff projection does assume--as it has ... | 99 |
fomc | 1,979 | Except for April | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, there was one month. But that was generated by the IRS and not the FRB. So I think we have not created the financial climate that you've been predicting. Would you want to comment on that? | 43 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure. I'd make two comments. One is that in terms of a concern about the cyclical turn, I could perceive three possible scenarios right now. One is that we will have a situation of continued very strong growth that presses against resource availability and intensifies inflation. I would say that the information coming ... | 365 |
fomc | 1,979 | Henry | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, am I right in thinking that among the various price indexes--the deflator, the business fixed weight deflator, and the CPI--there has been an unusually wide discrepancy in the recent months? I see the CPI increase for the first quarter of this year was 13 percent. The other indexes are in the 10 to 11 percent rang... | 72 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think mortgage interest rates probably played a part in the differential. They have a heavier weight in the CPI and are driving that measure up; they don't play that kind of role in the gross business fixed weight price index. I think the difference in weighting is probably the most significant variable. | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | It does make a difference whether the rate of inflation was 10 percent or 13 percent over the last three months, even if we give it the usual Federal Reserve discount. | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | Was it a 13 percent increase on average over the [first] quarter? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, it was [measured] end-of-quarter to end-of quarter. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, that's one difference. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | That accounts for some of it, probably. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Chuck. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I just wanted to say that I think Jim gave an admirable answer to Frank on probabilities except that we do have the energy situation, which is very, very difficult to [judge]. It is such a new factor. Obviously it's going to lead to more inflation than otherwise. It's also obviously going to lead to less spending than ... | 227 |
fomc | 1,979 | Nancy | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | Have you evaluated the economic impact of sharply rising interest rates, Jim? Have you looked at what the Wall Street Journal or [people on] Wall Street have said? Suppose the prime rate went to 13 percent. What would be the effect of that on your forecast? | 54 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if it went to 13 percent, one would have to ask why. If it went to 13 percent because all these numbers are wrong and we have a rip-roaring economy under way, that's a different situation than if it went to 13 percent as a result of policy actions. But I don't see a rip-roaring economy in the cards. Given availab... | 145 |
fomc | 1,979 | My other question is: Is there a reason for the peculiar pattern that you have on real disposable income? It seems to have a quarterly pattern that comes and goes. | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | It comes and goes with social-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's the July 1 factor. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | The social security? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's social security, which is worth about $ 9 . 8 billion in July. So there's a third-quarter blip upward-- | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | That will fill many columns of newspapers in July. Willis Winn. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I borrow a little sand to feed my machinery? I still get the reading that the financing of [housing] has been turned off almost absolutely. And there is about a 3-month lag between financing and starts. O n that basis, starts should [fall] very sharply starting by the end of June. Insurance industries, in contrast ... | 157 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you all for your questions and comments. Let's turn now to Steve for his observations. Then we'll do our go-around. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, [we've had] stability in the federal funds rate and short-term rates in general since the beginning of the year, except for the most recent 25 basis point increase in the funds rate. [However], an apparent worsening of inflation and inflationary expectations presumably would have the effect of reducing re... | 1,569 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Steve. I would suggest we begin to go around the table. I think last time we started with Larry [Roos], didn't we? We'll switch over this time and start with Roger [Guffeyl and come around the other way. I think the procedure we've been using recently has been helpful and I would suggest that we follow it ag... | 148 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First of all, we have very little quarrel with the staff projections, particularly as to the pattern, but our forecast is perhaps a bit weaker in the latter part of 1979. Our analysis suggests that the housing figures might be weaker in 1979. In talking with some savings and loan people in our ... | 646 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Roger. Bob. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I'll start off where Roger left off. I, too, feel that an increase in the discount rate would not be inconsistent with a policy position that is essentially a stable one. I think it would have some announcement effect in terms of our continued concern about inflation without really having a substantive effect, if... | 327 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bob. Mark. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'd like Murray's record to show that we agree substantially with all of the portions of Jim's forecast that are correct and disagree violently with those portions that are incorrect! | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's pretty good. Keep going. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | And give us the wisdom to know the difference. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | And let us pray. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, somebody told me that's [all] we're left with! I just have a couple of quick comments. We're very much in the staff's camp with regard to business spending. We still think that it could turn out to be a plus for the year and could be the sector that will carry us through with positive real growth. I must say that... | 397 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mark. John. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, when I asked the question of Jim Kichline about what the case is for a bounceback in the second quarter, I probably tipped my own hand as to my increasing skepticism. I'm afraid that what I see is pretty much what Bob Mayo sees in terms of a probable cyclical peak in this quarter. As a matter of fact, our forecas... | 826 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, John. Ernie. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I, too, missed the turn in Steve's comments. I thought it was [going to be a recommendation] to lean more on the aggregates and he winded up [suggesting] a wider range on the aggregates. But I assume-- | 53 |
fomc | 1,979 | If I may, President Baughman, I did want to lean more on the aggregates but I didn't want to [suggest] that the Committee should tighten with growth rates as low as they are under these alternatives. That's why I [proposed] a wider range on the high side. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'd like to toss in a couple of points which seem to suggest something a little different than some of the points that have been made thus far. One, we were advised that Sears Roebuck recently sent out mailings to most of its credit customers raising their [credit limits]. Sears apparently inspected its records and dis... | 424 |
fomc | 1,979 | Where else but in Texas would the legislators be fugitives from justice? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, the speaker of the Senate under his interpretation of the law has called the Texas Rangers into action and sent them out to find these fugitives and bring them back. But it's reported that they have crossed the border. And unless he's willing to create an international incident, he probably cannot reach them. I h... | 182 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much, Ernie. Frank | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, as I indicated earlier, I think we are close to a cyclical peak. Conceivably, it may already be behind us, with weakness in consumption and housing being covered up temporarily by inventory accumulation, the classic form of a peak. I don't think we should casually assume that the recession is going to be ... | 331 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Frank. Phil. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I am delighted to see the slowing in the economy. I've been hoping for it for a year. I think we're getting some reduction in the level of activity and I hope it continues for a while longer. I think we need to look at our basic objectives here because we have a problem of whether we are aiming to maintai... | 413 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Phil. Henry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I share Phil Coldwell's feeling. I think we're in some danger of excessive preoccupation with the business cycle. rt matters much more whether we come down from I percent to .4 percent growth than whether we go from . 4 to -1 or -2 percent. So in that sense an important move is already behind us. I think inflationary e... | 656 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Henry. Paul. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have heard a great deal of wisdom even without our getting around the rest of the table, Mr. Chairman. I'm not sure it has yet resolved all of the uncertainties in my own mind. I do share a lot of the feeling that has just been expressed about inflation; I think we tend to duck that issue. Something was said earlier ... | 199 |
fomc | 1,979 | When is our next meeting? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | July [ill. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would think that with either new financial or monetary data or business news, the Chairman might see an occasion for at least a telephone consultation some time in that interim. | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul, there's some sentiment that we should act like Congress and go home for six months and everything would get better! | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I sometimes agree with that, particularly if the Committee were to make precisely the decision that I'd like; then, I'd like to go home for 6 months, too. I can't foresee that. Frank Morris said that we can't casually assume the recession will be mild. I suppose we can't casually assume it, although it looks that... | 258 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I come to exactly the opposite conclusion that Steve did. I think we ought to pay careful attention to the aggregates and the growth in the aggregates in the period ahead. I'd widen the range on the funds rate and guard to see that we don't have undue weakness in the aggregates. There's a good chance that the tur... | 318 |
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