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fomc | 1,979 | Shallow, long saucer. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, shallow, long saucer. It has been said that the way to lick inflation is to have moderate growth for some period of time. 3 to 5 years or something like that. Have you done any work or do you have any views as to how long this type of pattern would have to be continued to have some impact [in the sense that] Mark ... | 79 |
fomc | 1,979 | We have run a variety of simulations Using different monetary policies, fiscal policies, and other options that have extended into 1982. And in most of those, except for policies that have expansive monetary and fiscal policies for an extended period of time, by the time we got to 1982 we were seeing substantial price ... | 185 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bob Mayo. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Jim, I have a little problem with your statement that one of the reasons the recession may be milder this time, or that we won't have a great problem this time, is that there might not be an identity this time of recession abroad and here. I would take some issue with the latter statement. Some of the tea leaves tell m... | 199 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, Bob was our clean-up hitter on this round of questions. I think it might be appropriate to turn to Steve Axilrod to give his comments on longer-run ranges and then we'll turn to the whole Committee. | 44 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, we are passing out a table that I hope will make my comments clear on this complicated problem facing the Committee. The decision before the FOMC on the long-run ranges is clearly much more difficult than usual. The impact on the ranges of an actual, or impending. recession has to be balanced against a hi... | 1,492 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Steve. A statistical question? All right. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | Steve or Jim, do you happen to have the 1973 and 1974 figures that would [compare with] those in the bottom part of this table for Ml and bank credit? | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | For '73 and '74? Let's all write these numbers down. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | For '73 the rate of growth in Ml was 6.2 percent and for '74 it was 5.1 percent. Bank credit growth for '73 and '74 was 15 percent and 10.2 percent. M2 for ' 1 3 was 8.8 percent and for '74, 1.7 percent. | 72 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are these fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter in all cases? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | One comment I should have made on the supplemental table that Jim called to your attention comparing the [forecasts of the] staff and the Administration: I know you realize all the figures here are confidential but these are particularly sensitive because they will not be released by the Administration until Friday. An... | 552 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I'm not as well prepared as I should be, having just come back last night from Basle. I continue to think that we may be underestimating inflation. For the first three months [of this year] we didn't have very much OPEC input into this inflation and nevertheless the CPI was going up at 13 percent. Now, that was f... | 544 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you have any specifications that you-- | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, under those conditions, Mr. Chairman, I lean toward keeping the specifications that we have now. They may seem very low, given what-- | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | What would you do for 1980 then, Henry? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | I find that a real quandary. I am very reluctant, however, to indicate that we are going to raise the rate of money growth. We can still [change the 1980 ranges later]; we are not casting this in cement. | 49 |
fomc | 1,979 | NO, we will do another [review] in January. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | But I would be very reluctant, unless convinced by the discussion here that we should, to raise the rates of money growth. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | So you would keep the same ones we now have for '79 and [carry them forward for] ' 8 0 ? | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much. Phil. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, Mr. Chairman, I agree with much of what Henry said. There are a couple of outside points I would like to make. Much of the discussion here has been about exogenous factors, outside influences. I still think our fundamental policy response is responsible for some of this inflation and I wish we had been tighter. A... | 297 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, you see, he cancelled his speech because he wanted to hear what the FOMC would do! Everyone was wondering what the reason was. | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | If he wants to play the game that way then I'm perfectly willing to step up to the policy [plate] and say that it's time for us to quit--not validate these things. My preferences for the '79 long-term growth ranges would be 3 to 5 percent on M1 and 5 to 7 percent on M2. I would hold bank credit down. I think it may slo... | 186 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Phil. Frank. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, Mr. Chairman, as I indicated earlier, I think we're facing a bigger recession than the staff has projected, primarily because of the consumer sector. When Jim talked about the other sectors that were not as vulnerable, he neglected to suggest that we have a major sector that is more vulnerable. And that is the co... | 299 |
fomc | 1,979 | Steve's proposals for both years? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | For both years | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Frank. Ernie. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, [let me mention] a couple of elements on the economy that might be of interest. We are beginning now to see a little pickup in drilling activities, after a fairly long period of accumulating idle rigs. CHAIR" MILLER. Is this for oil or for gas? | 59 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's both, but with gas being the strong end of it. And we're told by a few firms that they are making plans for a further significant step-up in that area, even to the extent that firms that normally do not own or control rigs but for the most part use leased rigs are anticipating enough shortage of supply of rigs abo... | 323 |
fomc | 1,979 | Three job changes and you're in pretty good shape, aren't you? | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's even reached the point now where firms are considering setting up shops in residential areas so these people won't have to travel more than 5 minutes to work as compared to 20 minutes. As to the general economic outlook, [my views] don't differ substantially from what the staff has projected. I recognize the possi... | 387 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Ernie. John. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm reminded of sitting here in '74 and '75 through the deepest and longest recession in the postwar period and my friend Mr. Baughman kept raising the question, "What recession?" | 39 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it's nice to live in Dallas. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | A s a matter of fact, we didn't feel it as badly on the West Coast as Messrs. Willis Winn and Bob Mayo. | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | It was just a regional recession | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | In any event, as far as the national outlook is concerned, despite my "doubting Thomas" type questions to Jim a little while ago, I agree that the most probable outcome is the scenario of a one-year long, fairly brief, and fairly mild recession. But if there are any risks in that, they're probably on the down side, in ... | 332 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, John. Mark. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think Henry and Phil have put their finger on the basic decision we have to make and that is: Do we bite the bullet and really try to do something about inflation or do we get deflected by a host of other problems? I would like to assert, without taking the time to prove it--because the Committee has neither the time... | 448 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mark. Perhaps I should pause to make a couple of comments. One is that if we make any change in the ranges for '79, it would be a restatement for the whole year, fourth quarter to fourth quarter. We are not rebasing; I think everyone understands that. And my intention in dealing with ' 8 0 in our report to t... | 255 |
fomc | 1,979 | I find Mark's assertion congenial and I-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're not going to prove it either. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | We are prepared to prove it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, I think it can be proved, but I will make the same caveat that Mark did. Although the staff forecast is a reasonable one, I find myself a little more pessimistic. I am concerned about both the likelihood of less real growth and more inflation. I really feel at this point that if we can beat 12 percent this year we... | 206 |
fomc | 1,979 | I still have some confusion. For the M1 measure you said 3 to 6 percent. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, 3 to 6 percent for '79 or 3 to 5-1/2 percent --I wouldn't quarrel with that. | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | Why not 1-1/2 to 4-l/2 percent? That's what it is now. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | He's adjusting it for ATS. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm adjusting it. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's what I had in mind. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I am talking about the second line in the material distributed--the "M1 measure," as it is called here. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | For '79, it's 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent now. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 now and it would be 3 to 6-- | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | For '79. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | You said leave it unchanged, and then you said you would-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, that's [no] change. It's the way Steve has it down here. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was interpreting such a move as unchanged because the midpoint remains 6 percent after [adjustment] for ATS. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | And that's the way I am looking at it--through the old ATS. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | You are accepting the upward adjustment in the average. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | But 3 to 6 and not 3 to 5-1/2 percent. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | I prefer the 3 to 6 percent, but I find that a minor point of difference. Now, since we are required to go out to 1980, I would say that if 3 to 6 percent is okay for '79, intellectually the range should be something like 2 to I percent for ' 8 0 because [it seems logical to1 widen the band. But I find this insulting t... | 200 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bob. Roger. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First of all, I think it's perhaps difficult to quarrel with the staff projection for the economy. But our independent look at the same figures they apparently are looking at--with some of the assumptions different, however--would suggest that we may have a bit less strength in the economy than... | 348 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Roger. Larry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes sir, Mr. Chairman. I find this an extremely interesting exercise because we are looking ahead and we are trying to function on a longer-term basis. I also find most interesting the handout from the staff on past and prospective rates of growth in the monetary aggregates. And I think those figures, to a great extent... | 317 |
fomc | 1,979 | I didn't realize I had said that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I thought earlier that you-- | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | I thought I said it would put us back by adding to inflation; we start from a higher base. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, all right. Specifically, I believe that inflation is still our most serious problem. If we are able to signal to the world that we are determined to do something about inflation, I think that will have a very real and salutary effect on our dollar exchange problem. I think it will stimulate much needed capital in... | 225 |
fomc | 1,979 | Bones. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, several segments of the economy in our District are reflecting unusual strength. But I think the composite would come out not significantly different from that described in the other [Districts] and as envisioned by the staff. If anything, we are impressed by both bankers and businessmen in their escalati... | 183 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you very much. Dave. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | My guesses on the economy are about the same as the staff's. The exception is that it's my sense that the staff may have underestimated the fiscal stimulus that might be coming along. In that context, I think the statement to the Congress should reaffirm our intention to move the monetary growth rates down in a consist... | 90 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Dave. Willis. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I haven't any quarrel with the staff's projections and I have only two comments on that. One is that the continuing inflation may force greater financial problems for some of our public bodies--schools, cities, and so forth--and we may get some reactions in that area that aren't really factored into the formula. Second... | 299 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Willis. Bob Black. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, for some months we have felt that a turning point was near and I think we would buy what seems to be the consensus forecast, or the assessment that we have passed that point. So far as severity is concerned, I think the developments in the petroleum market do strongly enhance the possibility that this cou... | 658 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Bob. Emmett. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, consistent with my tenure on the Board, I will be brief. Generally, I agree with the projection of the staff: it seems to me that almost all of the data now point to a recession. I would expect a more serious recession than the staff seems to expect. I believe the effect of inflation on household balance ... | 299 |
fomc | 1,979 | Current ranges? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, the current ranges. That was alternative B, I believe, in the Bluebook. However, for 1980, I find it hard to imagine that we would want to follow a more restrictive monetary policy in a situation of recession than we followed when we were resisting inflation in a booming economy. I would prefer to see us be prepar... | 165 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you. Nancy. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, on the long-run ranges, I don't have any trouble accepting the staff's projection as long as we adjust them for ATS. If we stick to 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent, that implies a tightening short-run monetary policy and I don't think we need that at all at the present time. So, I strongly favor adjusting the MI [range] t... | 256 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Nancy. Chuck. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I think we ought to hold with our current ranges for 1979 in a rather strict sense. And I think we ought to say that we are adjusting them simply for our changed ATS estimate. As I understand it, [that estimate] is down from about 3 percent to about 1-l/2 percent. And I would state that in the document. I'd say t... | 681 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're not talking to the market? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, but we are going to be talking publicly here about our projections for 1980 and I just think it would alarm the market. I would rather do it in January when, in fact, we could see how deep the recession is likely to be. | 52 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Chuck. Paul. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, let me be very quick on the business side. A lot of people have talked about the risks of a recession, and I think they are there. There are also some risks of financial disturbances arising perhaps out of some nonfinancial companies. I think there are risks in the balance of payments and on the dollar side. I ju... | 432 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's not a [matter of substance]; it's a measurement [issue]. It's [how it is] measured. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it's measurement. But I have this feeling that this is [only] one technical factor affecting the measurement of M1. Meanwhile, money market funds payable by check are going up $ 3 billion a month, which nobody anticipated at the beginning of the year and must have had a bigger effect on M1 than ATS. Well, it must... | 81 |
fomc | 1,979 | May. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it has almost none on transactions balances. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, you ought to talk to my wife. But you know, there are other factors--RPs and other things that Henry mentioned. And it just seems to me a mistake to react to this one technical factor at the risk of confusing people, when the basic message we want to give is: We have looked at our targets, we are within our targe... | 256 |
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