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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,979 | Same ranges as we have at present. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | In ' 8 0 ? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, for '80 as well, [though] maybe widening M1 to recognize those [uncertainties]-- | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | In order to be consistent between M1 and M2, we may have to shade the M2 downward a little. I haven't really examined that. | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, today we are going to have to come up with some precise answers. Before we break, let me just make sure we have the right numbers down here. Let me read what Murray has down for each of you. I am going to do ' 7 9 only. For John Balles he has: M1, 3-3/4 to 5-114; M2, 5-3/4 to 7 - 1 / 4 ; and M3, 6 - 1 / 2 to 9 . ... | 118 |
fomc | 1,979 | [For M31 6 to 9 percent, Mr. Chairman. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | Okay, 6 to 9 . That's why I want to [check] these. Bob Black was 3 to 6, 5 to 8, and 6 to 9 . | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's correct. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | For Phil Coldwell I have 3 to 5 and 5 to 7 and I didn't get M3. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | I didn't specify. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right. Bones is 3 to 5 - 1 / 2 , 5 - 1 / 2 to 8, and 6-1/2 to 9 . Bob Mayo is 3 to 6 on M1, and we don't have M2 OL M3. | 62 |
fomc | 1,979 | 5 to 8 and 6 to 9 . | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Chuck is 3 to 6, 5 to 8 , 6 to 9 . Emmett is 3 to 6, 5 to 8 , 6 to 9 . Nancy is 3 to 5 - 1 / 2 , 5-1/2 to 8 , 6 - 1 / 2 to 9 . | 77 |
fomc | 1,979 | Could I change that to 3 to 6 , 5 to 8 , and 6 to 9? | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure. That's why I wanted to get these down. So that's 3 to 6 , 5 to 8 , and 6 to 9 . | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, I changed them. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | And Paul Volcker is 1 - 1 / 2 to 4 - 1 / 2 , 5 t o 8, and 6 to 9. Henry is 1 - 1 / 2 to 4 - 1 / 2 . 5 to 8 , and 6 to 9. | 70 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, I may want to shade my M2 to bring it more nearly in line with M1, but I have to check the numbers. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | I am going to go through the others. Ernie, 1 - 1 / 2 to 4 - 1 / 2 , 5 to 8 , and 6 to 9 . Dave, 3 t o 5 - 1 / 2 , 5 - 1 / 2 to 8 , and 6-1/2 to 9 . Roger Guffey, 3 to 5 - 1 / 2 , 5 - 1 / 2 to 8 , and 6 - 1 / 2 to 9 . Frank Morris, 3 to 5 - 1 / 2 , 5 - 1 / 2 to 8 , and 6 - l / 2 to 9 . That's a pretty good team; they a... | 315 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let's pick up from what we did just before the break. We looked at M2 and M3 for which there are no adjustments because of this ATS matter. It would appear that among voting members there's a rather overwhelming sentiment for staying where we are for '79. In the case of M2 only three of you indicated any variation from... | 222 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, just a point of clarification there. Paul Volcker's comments left an impression that we were not going to be staying the same if we used the numbers that Steve Axilrod had suggested. During the break I spoke to Steve Axilrod and I really would like to be reassured that indeed we are staying the same by [u... | 95 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let me take a stab at reconciling them and see what you think. I'm coming to M1 last because, as you know, it has this question of an adjustment that has to do with changes in the estimates of the effects of ATS accounts. There again if we just go by the numbers, it looks as if all but two of the voting members indicat... | 392 |
fomc | 1,979 | [We'll be] high in the range or above the range if ATS slows or stops. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | But we'd come out the same on an adjusted basis as we would have previously. Now, that's one way to approach it. We've made the full disclosure but haven't got the press putting out new numbers with all the confusion that goes with them. I don't know whether that's satisfactory or not [but it's1 a possibility. | 63 |
fomc | 1,979 | Aren't we just delaying the explanation? When we get to next January and we're 1-l/2 percent above where we said we were going to be, then we're going to have to give the same explanation. And in the meantime we're going to get all the adverse press on having been outside the long-term ranges. | 65 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, that could be. I don't know. Every period of time has its problems and I agree with you that no time will be good to explain these complicated things. My second assumption is that, with the pending legislation and the pending redefinition of the aggregates, it would best at this point to say that for 1980, given ... | 405 |
fomc | 1,979 | It sounds sound to me. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Pardon me? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's more a question of the impressions that people have rather than some [number of] basis points. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't think foreign exchange traders are analysts. I don't think they care about facts. They care if they can use the device to maneuver a market in order to make a profit. Ted, do you have any view on it? | 46 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I think 1 agree that the first impression of the market, if you didn't adjust [the M1 range], would be negative and that could lead to [unintelligible] basically because they're looking for what comes across the ticker first. | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | Henry. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would think that staying with the same ranges in the face of higher inflation is something that people will understand. They will see that there's resistance, non-accommodation, [to that higher inflation]. I think it ought to have a good response. | 49 |
fomc | 1,979 | But I would do this only on the basis that we follow the majority will here. And I'd indicate in our report to Congress that we are going to guide our policy based on the original viewpoint that 1-1/2 to 4 [ - 1 / 2 1 percent was 4-112 to I - 1 / 2 percent on an adjusted basis, and it stays that way. Mark. | 85 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm just wondering if it would be consistent with what you suggested, which I think is a move in the right direction, if we indicated that what we would look at would be adjustments for ATS and other things that might influence the demand for money. The market is very concerned and some of us are very concerned about s... | 68 |
fomc | 1,979 | We didn't cut the money growth [ranges] for the other things. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | But we allowed substantially lower growth in the first half because of those other things. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Dave. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think these are very real concerns. The main concern on the other side, drawing from our experience with these targets in the past, is that once we get locked into a certain range it's very difficult to change. And the longer we go without changing, the more difficult it is to change. So if we go this way, I think we... | 135 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, that's the other side of it. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, it seems to me that given the uncertainties--the idea that we started out with a 3 percent adjustment earlier this year and it's now down to 1-1/2 percent--. I don't know what the staff was actually forecasting-- | 52 |
fomc | 1,979 | It may be something else by the end of the year. That's one of the problems. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Maybe. It may be back up to 5 percent. I don't know which way this [adjustment] could turn. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's what bothers me. We could end up with something we did [not expect] and be fouled up again. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's why I wonder if it isn't possible just to use 1-1/2 to 4-l/2 percent and then in parenthesis say "adjusted for ATS . " | 37 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure, that's the kind of-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Whatever it may be. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, but we've got to explain that. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, we have to be prepared to explain it. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | My point is that we end up leaving the figures the same, but with a parenthetical adjustment. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, adjusted for deviations from the estimate as to the ATS effect. It's adjusted for deviations because we've already adjusted it tbyl 3 percent. | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, may I ask two questions on that? In explaining it to the public in the report, I assume we would say something like: Given what has happened in the second quarter, it is now expected that ATS growth may be somewhat less than originally thought and, therefore, growth in M1 may be somewhat higher in the ran... | 189 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're asking, Steve, for the Committee to show internal consistency and that's a big demand! | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | From the discussion, absent any other instruction, I would assume that we would track essentially on the 3 to 6 percent measured range. | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think what I'm saying is that that's true if we look at ATS only. But some members may want to adjust their policy thinking to other things that have happened. But on ATS only, I think you're probably right. We probably made a mistake. For internal purposes we probably should have put your estimate in for the effect ... | 72 |
fomc | 1,979 | We can't really make out where we are. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | We probably should have used--what is it, 4-112 to 7-112 percent--from the beginning, making an adjustment each time . | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Added in ATS. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, added in ATS just for internal purposes. Maybe we should still do it--or do it as a supplemental chart. Steve will say that we don't have a measured way to do that, but if you make an estimate that the effect is X amount, you have to add in a number that would do that. | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, as one who advocated adjustment, I think your plan is really better and I would go along with that. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm trying to accomplish both [objectives]. I'm trying to accomplish the adjustment without scaring people and leave us some running room so that if the adjustment turns out to be different than we now think, we don't have a second go-around. | 48 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's an important consideration, as Paul pointed out very clearly. It also gets to be a consideration, I think, when we select the range for 1 9 8 0 . | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would want that [ 1 9 8 0 range] on the surface to appear to be somewhat lower; others wouldn't, but I would for psychological reasons. I think it could have a very therapeutic effect on the market. | 48 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you proposing that we go to 1-1/2 to 4-l/2 percent for ' 8 0 ? | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, for '80 I was proposing that we indicate that our current thinking is to continue the same ranges, adjusted for the impact of ATS. So it isn't 1-1/2 to 4-1/2. Nancy: it could be that 4 to I or 4-1/2 to I-1/2 on an adjusted basis. | 74 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you going to be that vague for next year consistent with-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | I could be that vague now, but I wouldn't be that vague in February. I'm sort of hedging my bets because I assume that by the end of the year we will have completed our project. We'll have some redefinitions and we'll have a new series, which will be tracked back in time. And that series will come into-- | 67 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I'm just worried about M1. But if the [Humphrey-Hawkins] Act does not require that we specify in numbers-- | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, where's the Act? Who has [the languageI ? | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have a copy, M r . Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | It specifies that we are to indicate our ranges and I don't think it requests that we-- | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | It says that as a part of its report on July 20 of each year in addition to [the ranges for the current year], the Board of Governors shall include a statement of its objectives and plans with respect to the ranges of growth or diminution of the monetary and credit aggregates for the calendar year following the year in... | 69 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we can do it by saying we intend to stay on the same track, with an adjustment for ATS. I don't know how that appeals to the Committee. If you'd like to have a discussion of that, I'd be happy to do it. Is there sentiment along with Bob's that this is perhaps the best way out of a box? | 69 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would accept it. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not quite sure, Mr. Chairman. If we try the tack you are suggesting to avoid specifying the numbers for '80, which I would approve, what I can't really make a guess on--maybe you can tell me--is whether the [Congressionall Committee will try to smoke it out of you. If they do, then you're going to have to face the ... | 136 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think I can because in the verbal answers I can say: Look, when we were putting [the objectives] down last year we were thinking of M1 in the old way of 4 - 1 / 2 to I - 1 / 2 percent. And whatever the ATS effect turns out to be at the end of the year--whether it's 3 or 1 or 7--[that] is really the adjustment [uninte... | 171 |
fomc | 1,979 | One other observation if I could, Mr. Chairman? For those who just look at the numbers and don't bother to read the explanations, as clear as they might be, if we move to 3 to 6--if what had originally been the majority view here prevails--[there will be] those who are concerned about what the Fed ought to be doing to ... | 156 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure. I think for internal purposes we ought to prepare each month a chart on the old series basis so that we don't get confused. The world may get confused, I suppose. | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | The only thing that might appear to be a little queer is that we'd have a stand pat hand in terms of ranges--if, let's say, Paul Volcker's and Henry Wallich's proposal were adopted--in the face of a developing recession. It might look a little odd. | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. Any other coments? Roger. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Just to [follow] on that, I don't know how you would intend to avoid testifying as to the numbers--that we're indeed looking at 3 percent for the ATS adjustment early in this year and perhaps only 1-1/2 in the latter half of 1979. That can be read, if we maintain these ranges, as a tightening of policy. | 75 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we would adjust the ranges. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Pardon me? | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | We'd adjust the range. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, what we do is this: If we were actually shooting for the midpoint of our ranges and we had a 1-1/2 percentage point ATS effect, then 3 percent on the current range equals 4-1/2 percent, and we'd be at the top. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | But it's going to be very difficult to explain, and the-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's hard to explain to ourselves! That's why we're going to explain if we change in the numbers. It may be easy. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, we refer to those old rates as pure rates in Richmond, before we fool around and adjust them. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | Pure rates. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's not very descriptive, but it's easy to recognize what we are talking about when we use that term. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | It seems to me you'll do a better job than the DOW Jones ticker does. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, one thing is that the written report will [unintelligiblel. Yes, the Dow Jones will take the written report and put it on the wire. What I say will be lost in the shuffle so that-- | 46 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, except that you are reporting to an oversight committee and they may well understand what you're saying. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think you ought to explain very carefully what we're doing because it could be very misleading. I think we've had a bad reputation for being misleading and not forthcoming in saying what we're doing. We should put all the cards on the table and tell the [Congressional] Committee exactly what's going on. | 59 |
fomc | 1,979 | Sure. I have no disagreement with that. These ranges were set with the impact of ATS estimated at 3 percent. [The Congressional Committee] will have to take account of the fact that there may be a deviation from that particular estimate and that to the extent there is a deviation the ranges will be inappropriate. There... | 80 |
fomc | 1,979 | Amen. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | Then we'll go back and have another argument. Henry Wallich has been trying to get in a word. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Two things. One, to automatically add to our 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 the difference between 3 and the current ATS [estimate] wasn't quite my idea. | 40 |
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