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fomc | 1,979 | And what on "A?" | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | On "A" it's a little over $1 billion. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right, that's an important variable that I think we ought to-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's not saying that that couldn't be changed. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, of course. That's one of the things I think we ought to vote on. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Could I ask one brief question, M r . Chairman? Steve, you mentioned that under "B" you have a 9-1/2 percent increase in M1 from mid-November to year-end. What is the comparable figure for "C?" | 52 |
fomc | 1,979 | For "C," it's between 7 - 1 1 2 and 8 percent--1-112 to 2 percentage points [less]. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's seasonally adjusted. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Seasonally adjusted--no, just in the sense that I took it from week to week. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | These all also assume we get a weak number in the next published weekly figure, which we don't know. The preliminary figure shows a decline of $2 billion? | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | If it came out substantially above that, all these growth rates would have to be smaller between now and the end of the year. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | But that's following a week in which we had a $3 billion [increase]. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | It might be fairer to view it as under " B " that we have targeted growth in November of 1/2 of one percent and in December a monthly average of 10 percent. Under "C" in November it's about 1/4 of one percent and in December about 8-1/2 percent. I just want to give a sense that we need to push it up, but the week to we... | 100 |
fomc | 1,979 | Steve, is that 9-1/2 percent growth in M 1 over the November and December period what you expect under alternative B or what would be consistent with the 4 - 1 / 2 percent? | 45 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, that's what we in effect targeted to get the 4-1/2 percent [growth rate from September to December]. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | What's the likelihood that we'll get 9-1/2 percent over the period [to year-end]? | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | If the Committee puts in the reserves--the reserve path we've designed--we believe we will get it. Where we're uncertain is whether that will be with stable interest rates or declining rates. Our general view is that it will probably be with some decline in interest rates, which is the reason we started that path off w... | 84 |
fomc | 1,979 | But that is the most likely rate of increase? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | It is our collective-type projection of what would happen to money. If interest rates didn't change at all, it would be slightly lower than in alternative B. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yesterday we talked about the possibility of extending our horizon on this. Are you planning to make any comment on that, Steve? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | We did put in the Bluebook--for general guidance--January figures. And I could-- | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | You don't show rates for January. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | You don't show rates: that's my point. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | I can tell you what we did there. We assumed you had a 6 percent M1 growth target for the year 1980. So we calculated from the fourth quarter average to the first quarter average a growth of 6 percent. And the figure there for January for alternative B is a level that gets right on that [ 6 percent1 line from the fourt... | 141 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're saying that if we continue that rate--sort of--for February and March, the first quarter would be 6 percent above the fourth quarter? | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | It might. I don't know the exact February and March [pattern] but it would be somewhere around there. They could be, depending on how the averages work out. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, comparable to the 4-1/2 percent path that the Committee agreed to for September to December, what would be the rate for-- | 30 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't have worked out a continuation of the 4-1/2 percent path because-- | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I didn't mean necessarily the continuation of 4-1/2 percent, but what would be the path you would recommend for November through January? | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | "B." | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | "B" is the 4-1/2-- | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Through January. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's a lot higher than that, I think | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | From September to January, the growth rate under "B" is 4.8 percent. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | So from November through January you're talking [a bit] higher. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | F r o m October to January it's 5 . 5 percent; there's very little difference between that and 5.7 percent for the month. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | How much correction does " C "make on that? What is the growth rate under "C" from December to January? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | In "C," from December to January it's 4.4 percent. We assumed that the Committee would be restraining growth a bit below path in the first quarter, so we have it below and then coming back up. So in January M1 is a little below that 6 percent path. These are all things the Committee can adjust, but that's the assumptio... | 82 |
fomc | 1,979 | So you'd have 4 . 4 percent for January. Then that means you would have something under 4-1/2 percent for the 4 months. And for the 3 months from October to January growth would be about 4-1/2 percent, I guess. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | It would be 5 percent because the January growth rate picks up a little relative to the other alternatives to begin [to get M11 coming back on the path. | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | In the future, as we said yesterday, I think it would be helpful to spell this out with a little more precision over a longer period of time. This is related to when we next meet and we might just think about that a bit. My inclination at the moment is that we might as well meet again in December and consider [our targ... | 160 |
fomc | 1,979 | Does that mean that at the next meeting, Mr. Chairman, you'd like us to provide paths with alternative longer-run growth rates because the year is starting over and also looking ahead 3 months, say? | 41 |
fomc | 1,979 | By that time I presume we'll have complicated it all by having a new definition of the money supply. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think the Board is going to make a decision on that shortly. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Certainly in January we will, [ahead of] when we go up to Congress. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | So it's going to be a little complicated to say the least. Well, let's have a coffee break. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would like to go around the table and get some general discussion of the economic situation and at least a preliminary statement of policy. Then we will focus hard on policy specifics. I remind you that Steve expressed the dilemma very well. One can argue that from the standpoint of domestic business activity it woul... | 545 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, from my standpoint it seems probable that the economy is going to decline. To me the timing still is a bit [uncertain] as to whether that is going to occur in the fourth quarter or the first. quarter. But I think the chances are high that the fundamentals will bring the economy to a lower rate of growth a... | 562 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Willes. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have to admit that I don't know what's going to happen to the real economy. I'm not sure I even know how to go about predicting that at the moment because it seems to me that it depends so much on what OPEC does and what the Congress does and lots of other things. I will go on to say, which will be no news to some of... | 657 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Baughman. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, I would say with respect to a general economic forecast that I would subscribe to what Mark Willes has said as to the probable low value [any forecast] would have in the present circumstances. It seems to me that the staff projection is a reasonable one. I would not be surprised if [the economy] actuall... | 421 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Timlen. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I must say that in my judgment the consumer has been a great source of strength for a long time and I think finally that is going to turn around. I'm particularly impressed by the fact that the impact of [the cost of] heating homes in the Northeast is going to present quite a challenge to some personal budgets and may ... | 333 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I think I can endorse a great deal of what has been said. I would like to make it very clear that I don't think we have any more control of the aggregates than when we were operating on an interest rate target. Yet the media and I think some of my colleagues here think that we have run out and put our han... | 372 |
fomc | 1,979 | Increase the federal funds rate? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I want to increase the range. I might combine alternative B and $1-112 billion of borrowings with a federal funds range of 10-1/2 to 15-112 percent so that when the signs begin to come through very strongly that the economy is weakening the interest rates can drop naturally somewhat more than they could before. In othe... | 124 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I think the staff forecast is a good one and I certainly am prepared to go along with it. It seems pretty clear that the economy is headed for a contraction in the early part of 1980. We see evidence of this already but it's obvious that the increase in energy prices, the prevailing tightness in financial... | 499 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let me just pick up on one comment you made. You talked about changing policy and I guess I'd ask you what you mean by "changing policy." The question comes up all the time. What did you mean when you said that--measuring it in terms of the money supply? | 57 |
fomc | 1,979 | Right, right. In relation to that. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | This question is going to plague us, I tell you. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | Now, let me just finish. What I had in mind was late in 1980 or perhaps even early in t19811, whenever the economy begins to strengthen, I would be prepared to tighten monetary policy. | 43 |
fomc | 1,979 | In terms of the money supply. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | In terms of the money supply and at a much earlier point than the Federal Reserve normally does. In this way we'd continue to resist inflation rather than err on the side of maintaining the situation where liquidity would be inadequate [for a1 time . | 48 |
fomc | 1,979 | The reason I [raise] the point is that I think it has some relevance unfortunately for this meeting and for every meeting, I suppose. When I appear in public or in private in the first question I get is, "Are you going to stick with it?" So I say what "sticking with it" means. I go through my song and dance about how, ... | 300 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's why I think we should let them fluctuate. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | That would be favorable. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | We're going to have to break that psychology. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Morris. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, we are still more pessimistic than the staff on the projection for 1980, but they are getting a lot closer to us. We are still looking for a recession, something on the scale of 1974-75, as the result of the three shocks that we have going: the energy shock; what I think now can be called the interest rat... | 102 |
fomc | 1,979 | They can? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. The savings banks are offering it. Money is available, but the demand is falling off very sharply because of the rate--the fact that they are asking 13 percent plus 2 points. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | Frank, what's the usury ceiling in Massachusetts? | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | We don't have a usury ceiling. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | You see, we do. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | You have a particular problem, [Tom]. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we are seeing for the first time real price rationing in mortgage markets. In the past, most of the impact has been on availability but I think we are in a situation now where we could well see a liquidity buildup in the thrifts because the demand is not there at those rates of interest. The other shock I have ... | 290 |
fomc | 1,979 | Question: You are associating $2 billion of borrowing with alternative C as-- | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | I said initially $1-1/2 billion. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's a modified "C." | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's what I was getting at. You are modifying alternative C by reducing the borrowing level associated with it. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | But I'd certainly move to $2 billion if the money figures come through strong enough. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Guffey | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, we believe the staff's forecast to be a good one, particularly with the caveats about additional oil price increases that may come out of the December OPEC meeting and that would turn the first quarter a bit lower perhaps than our initial forecast would suggest. As to business activity in our area, partic... | 82 |
fomc | 1,979 | There are different kinds o f [auto] credit, [do you mean] consumer credit or dealer credit? | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | Both. With respect to housing, we have two situations within the seven states. One is the usury ceiling, which of course has cut off all residential housing. But the same is true in the other areas where usury laws are not a [factor]. The savings and loans virtually have shut their doors. They are not prepared to bid f... | 411 |
fomc | 1,979 | I understand your international reason, but after your recital on the domestic economy why do you argue that [case] domestically? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it seems to me that we are going to have the same kind of psychology-- | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's a psychology [issue]. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. Policy-wise, it seems to me that it would be appropriate to adopt " C " or perhaps something a bit more restrictive than that. On the other hand-- | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | You still get a passing grade with "D." | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | With regard to modifying "C,"however, I'd maintain the federal funds range that we now have--that's 11-l/2 to 15-1/2 percent. It seems to me that it would be inappropriate to change that range. If my understanding is correct, the first time the markets or the world will see that 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 percent range will be w... | 212 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. ROOS. m . ROOS. M r . Chairman, I think it's important at this stage of our deliberations [to stand] back and again ask ourselves whether we really are aware of what we have announced publicly that we are going to do. On October 6 we announced that we are going to change our procedures to concentrate more on the co... | 738 |
fomc | 1,979 | Governor Wallich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have no quarrel with the staff's forecast, though I think there is at least a possibility that the OPEC decision will be less adverse than they think. In Europe there seems to be a feeling that oil is reasonably plentiful and, therefore, that the ability to raise [its price] rather drastically is less. | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | They only buy it at $40 a barrel! | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, but at least they've got it. Even so, I think it's clear that we're facing a worsening outlook for both unemployment and inflation. The [situation] seems to be worse on the side of inflation than unemployment and slow growth. So I think we've got to weight our approach accordingly--that is, lean more in the direc... | 816 |
fomc | 1,979 | What did you say--"C?" | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | "C." | 2 |
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