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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Balles. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't see any basic reason for changing the posture that we adopted on October 6 , Mr. Chairman. With respect to the real economy, the obvious [areas of] weakness that we observe are housing and autos, although I must say that on the West Coast the sag in housing has been offset by what some builders describe as a fu... | 126 |
fomc | 1,979 | From [14-1/21 to 14 percent? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, from 13-1/2 to 13 percent. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Now that is an encouraging sign. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | But it is encouraging. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I did not know that a savings and loan did that. | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | Home Savings as well as Bank of America. The expectation with respect to the general economy as contained in the Board staff forecast is quite similar to our staff forecast, which I would generally describe as a modest recession by past standards. Obviously, there's a great deal of uncertainty surrounding all these for... | 546 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Mayo. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'd say a couple of things. I have no fault with the staff forecast except that my elbow--which doesn't quite have the problem o EUR Nancy's elbow but maybe it will get that way--tells me that the economy will be weaker than in the forecast. The chances are greater that it will be weaker with greater unemployment and u... | 745 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Black. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I think it's pretty obvious that the Iranian crisis has potentially great implications for the domestic outlook--[morel than the mere availability of petroleum supplies. But absent that problem, I would think the staff's forecast would be about right. If I had to guess which way the error might be, I woul... | 645 |
fomc | 1,979 | Governor Partee. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we are plotting a path [for the provision of reserves], and there never will seem to be much difference in the short run in the paths that we plot because they only work out over the long run. But I think there is a difference between alternatives A, B, and C. There's a different implication for the shape of mone... | 788 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Winn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | To start I'd like to commend Steve and Peter again for their performance yesterday. I hope that we can have the second verse of modulations on the theme, whether we meet in December or January, with the same group. I thought it was an extremely productive meeting. As I indicated earlier, I am still concerned about the ... | 373 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Eastburn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Chuck Partee has given the precise description that I was prepared to propose, though the route by which we arrived at that might be a little different. I start with the comment that you made, Mr. Chairman, about your sophisticated and unsophisticated audiences, which I think is very much to the point. We have many non... | 312 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Kimbrel. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, we too have considerable appreciation for the staff projections but I guess we would assign a higher priority for some [possibility] of a tax cut next year than the Greenbook seems to suggest. Also, the South and the Sun Belt are frequently characterized as areas that will not suffer [in a recession] to t... | 358 |
fomc | 1,979 | Governor Schultz. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think the only economic law I believe in at this point in time is Murphy's Law. I don't know how human beings are going to behave in this particular period, so I'm torn. It seems to me that autos and housing are very weak and the rest of the economy continues to hang up there. I have a feeling that at some point that... | 218 |
fomc | 1,979 | You've disappointed me, Governor. If you had come out for "B." we'd have among the Committee members an exact split of 5 "Bs," 5 "Cs,"and one in between "B" and "C." | 46 |
fomc | 1,979 | How about that! | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Noncomittee members are irresponsible! At one point in looking at this I didn't think there was much difference between these alternatives. But I think Governor Partee and others are right that there probably is a real difference when you compress this into a narrow period of time. Obviously the consensus, whether it's... | 83 |
fomc | 1,979 | The other way around--a strong " B " or a weak "C." | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | It depends on how you define "strong." If you would prefer, it's a strong " B " or a weak "C." There is a question of how to phrase this and reach a maximum consensus here. I might say in a general way that it would scare me if the federal funds rate went up toward the 15 percent area again, considering all that is hap... | 135 |
fomc | 1,979 | Why is that, M r . Chairman? Why would that scare you if in the short run [the funds rate] went up? | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | Because I think it would lock in these long-term rates and raise great concern about credit availability in the short run. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul, that doesn't bother me for a change. It seems to me that we've demonstrated that we're willing to let that rate go up to 15 percent and if it does a second time--if it should happen--I think less attention would be paid to it. | 53 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's very likely. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's right if we weren't in a phase of declining economic activity. Then we could get a little excitement in this city of ours! | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | We've got this concept of a crunch in mortgages, which would probably be exacerbated. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | HOW would you feel about an 11 percent rate? | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | On the down side? | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | well, I do think we have this problem internationally so I'm not all that gung ho on the down side either. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | It sounds like you're talking about an interest rate target. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | I object. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | You object to what? | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I feel the same way as Mark does, that the Chairman is getting too close to [targeting] interest rates. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | Now, I agreed with your whole lecture, Mr. Mayo, that we didn't have a revolution but an evolution. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | He also said a giant step, I believe. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | But he didn't say whether it was forward or backward ! | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | That remains to be seen, I think. In any event, I believe there is something to be said for not changing these [specifications] unless there's a reason for changing them, just in terms of consistency with what we did earlier. That's a point that several people have made. And I think literally what we did earlier is tha... | 572 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I did not attempt to specify [particulars] because I thought we were going around a second time, but where you come out is not far from where I would suggest. I'd split this borrowing [range] at $1.7 billion. However, if I heard you right, you're taking the monetary growth rates of "B,"and I would much pr... | 112 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we can do that. I think that's expressing very much the sense of what I am saying, too. But your proposal has what I would see as a disadvantage--I don't know whether it's a major disadvantage--of having to write a policy record that says six weeks after we made the decision [on October 61 we're now fine-tuning i... | 119 |
fomc | 1,979 | What will be published [in the policy record for October 61 is just the 4-1/2 percent for M1 in the fourth quarter, Phil. | 33 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | And I think the language to be released this week is 4-1/2 percent [but that] somewhat less than that [would be acceptable]. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, if we take alternative B, it's 5-1/2 percent on M1. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | For the two months | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | For the two months. But I think the record would say that we're confirming what we did last time. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | But that's exactly part of my problem because--if I heard Steve right--if we confirm that, we've got to hit roughly 10 percent [for Ml] in December on the basis of his present projections . | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | If November comes in as low as he's talking about. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | If November is close to zero. If it comes out at 3 or 4 percent, it's 6 or 7 percent [for December]. It's that sort of thing. | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | If I might just tag on, Phil, I think I'd also like to extend the projection into January. | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would, too. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | That was sort of my notion of going in between 8uBuand muC#G and then saying we'd continue that for January until we have a meeting and can review it again. | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well I think the difference here is, as I say, substantively a nuance. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, You [may] want to call a meeting of the Committee if the aggregates did come in at that high a level, but I think a 10 percent rate of growth in M1 in December would be unacceptable. | 45 |
fomc | 1,979 | What I am saying is that if November comes in as low as we're now estimating, we probably wouldn't hit the 10 percent in December. I'm not saying we can't hit it because we know we get these things. | 43 |
fomc | 1,979 | We provide reserves. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we would provide the reserves for 10 percent and that presumably would force the federal funds rate down sharply. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not sure we'd provide [the reserves] for 10 percent, as I see it. I'd say we'd come in at 5-1/2 percent or lower. | 35 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, all right. I think maybe you want to say that it's 5-1/2 to 4-l/2 percent, you know. That's one way of doing it. But it is a path that we're setting here, or telling the staff to set, regardless of where the money supply actually comes out. This is the rate at which reserves would be provided, as I understand it.... | 87 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. Whatever numbers che Committee picks, it's a path; it's difficult to work with a range in this kind of thing. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | Steve, what would be the annualized rate of growth on, say, alternative " B " or "C" from October through January? | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | For "B" it's 5-1/2 percent essentially. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | And for "C?" | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | For " C " it's 5 percent. And it's 5 . 9 percent for "A." | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we ought to avoid the prospect of needing a 10 percent rate of growth and having to force in reserves in December to achieve that. SEVERAL. I do, too. | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think December would be much too early for a decline in interest rates in line with trying to say that this should go hand in hand with [what is happening with] the economy and with inflation. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I hate to suggest the possibility of moving these numbers and set forth another option. But one way to meet your point and the point other members of the Committee are expressing is to leave M1 at alternative B as you have--have no change there--but to lower the [associated] M2 because that's clearly high... | 156 |
fomc | 1,979 | But the non-M1 component of M2 doesn't absorb a very large amount of reserves, so the impact would be slight. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, but for whatever it absorbs if M2 grows at a higher rate, there will be less for M1. So it would go in the direction of reducing MI below 5-1/2 percent in practice if, in fact, M2 was growing as strongly as projected. | 58 |
fomc | 1,979 | What did we specify for M2 back in October? | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | 7-1/2 percent. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | It was 7-1/2 and we now have 8-3/4 percent? | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, we can't really get 7-1/2 percent. In alternative C, M2 growth, as you can see, is 8-1/4 percent over the two months. [Adopting] "C" would get [M2 growth] down to 8-1/4 percent. If that were substituted, that might reduce the reserve growth a bit. | 79 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would much prefer to specify this out rather than to adopt something that then is going to be interpreted midstream because none of us really knows what the projection is going to be or how [growth] is going to turn out. So I would prefer that we use 5 percent and 8-1/2 percent with a $1.7 billion borrowing assumptio... | 80 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would support that, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | How does the $1.7 billion compare? How would you interpret that 1.7, Steve? Would you interpret that as a neutral initial borrowing assumption or is it a little restrictive, or what? | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | The way borrowings have been running very recently, that is about [consistent with] where the present federal funds rate is, really. It's in some sense neutral in that it's starting out about where we are. | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | But suppose November doesn't come in as low as we think it's going to. NR. PARTEE. Well, we don't know | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'd rather do it Steve's way and lower the M 2 target--to have some flexibility for the numbers as they come in--and leave the target for M1 where it was on a quarterly basis. | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | We basically have that flexibility, though, either way we do it. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, but there's an awful big advantage in being able to say we looked at it--that we're part way down the road and we're not going to change our objective at this point. I think there's a lot of just good public relations in that. | 50 |
fomc | 1,979 | Then we ought to stay at 4-l/2 and 7-1/2 percent instead of going to 5 and 8-1/2 percent. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm talking about just releasing quarterly [targets] and that's all. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Where were we before on the M2 rate for the quarterly period from September to December? | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | The Committee had specified 7.6 percent. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | 7.6 and it's way up to 8-3/4. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | We are at 7.6 percent to date and our projection is that the growth in time deposits will be high relative to M1, so we raised it. But of course M2 growth may not come in that high. It has been running high relative to M1 as compared with expectations, so we continued [that pattern for November-December]. | 71 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's because of large CDs. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Ye5 | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I ask you a question, Steve? You are still, I assume, giving equal weight to M1 and MZ? | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | That disappeared? | 3 |
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