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fomc | 1,977 | But only if [M1] goes down below the lower limit, if we put it at 0 or into the negative range, then I would think we would. | 34 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think you are weakening your recommendation with regard to M1. Now going the other way, widening, I don't see any inconsistency there, but I think I see an inconsistency-- | 38 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't think it's inconsistent, and perhaps more philosophically I'd rather have the full percentage [point] range. In the general paragraphs on line number 8, Mr. Chairman--in the past we have published these figures in our policy directive concerning local retail sales. | 53 |
fomc | 1,977 | Where are you? | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Line item 8 of the general paragraph. I think it would be desirable for us to cover our tracks here to say "total retail sales according to advance estimates grew somewhat." | 35 |
fomc | 1,977 | Why do you think that is unsatisfactory? The retail sales which rose somewhat are retail sales expressed in nominal dollars, I believe. Is that correct? | 30 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, then, I'm not ready to say that when you have retail sales in July going up five-tenths, to 1 percent, and therefore [up at a] 6 percent annual rate, I'm not ready to say the total [real] retail sales rose at all. | 58 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, it's certainly uncomfortable the way it's stated because of the change that we had this past month in the revision. I looked back at prior figures, or statements and policy records, and we are trapped in this advance-estimate approach. | 47 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think that this is something our staff ought to watch a little more. Now one of the great difficulties with a period of inflation is that it confuses everyone. Confuses businessmen with regard to their profits, confuses economists with regard to their readings of the economy. It confuses the general public beca... | 113 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would suggest, Mr. Chairman, that we leave it to the staff to amend this. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | Right. I think it's a useful correction. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | May I have one other moment, because while you directed the question to the Presidents, and I will not comment concerning my opinion on the discount rate, I do think it would be of some help to not only consider the discount rate but, in this period of seasonal expansion of required reserves, to consider the possibilit... | 70 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I-- | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm not prepared to make that a recommendation. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Look at it over the next several months. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes, over the next several months. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think that members of this Committee should feel prepared at all times to comment on whatever is on their mind. But I do want to point out that we are engaged in a congressional enterprise at present and that sensitive legislation involving reserve requirements is now being considered on Capitol Hill. Therefore, let ... | 72 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's all I have. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Coldwell. Mr. Eastburn now, please. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I begin with a view that the economy is stronger than the sentiment would suggest and also with the uncomfortable feeling that we may someday look back on the current period as being a mistake, so far as monetary policy is concerned. We have a second and third quarter with M1 growing more than ... | 411 |
fomc | 1,977 | Do you have any observation on the timing? | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | I would do it right away. | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | You would do it immediately. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | Rather than wait a week, or two, or three. | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, thank you. Mr. Morris. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I am quite pleased with our performance during the past month. I think that the move we made in the funds rate was needed to maintain our credibility in the marketplace, in light of the big bulge in the aggregates. I think we could take some pleasure from the performance of the bond markets. The reaction ... | 104 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's correct. Yes, there was no reaction to the move we made in late April, and there's been virtually no reaction to the move we've made during the past month. Why should we take pleasure in that? I do, myself, but I sometimes get very uncomfortable with myself, because what's the purpose of an increase in interest ... | 108 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, because I think that the fact that long-term rates have been stable is an expression on the part of the bond investor that the Federal Reserve is exercising a reasonable degree of control over the money supply, and that therefore a long-term commitment makes some sense at the current level of rates. | 58 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I say that all the time, and I believe it, and yet I feel a little uneasy because the purpose is to slow down the rate of growth of the money supply. And do you succeed in slowing down the rate of growth of the money supply if long-term rates do not rise? So, I feel a little uncomfortable with myself and with my ... | 89 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think you can slow down the rate of growth in money supply without pushing long-term rates up. The long-term rates are to a large extent a function of expectations. | 34 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, isn't it that we're looking to a slowdown in the rate of inflation as the net result of our policy? The net slowdown in the rate of money supply growth is secondary. It seems to me that this is very important, what Frank has said, because we're saying the real interest rate component of long-term interest... | 82 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's pretty hard to argue that we've had a burst of 18 percent or whatever in the money supply, and because we acted against this, the net result is a decline in inflationary expectations. Maybe so, but-- | 44 |
fomc | 1,977 | But again, the 18 percent has to be looked at in terms of our inflation rate. I consider this a ship that passes in the night, the 18 percent. | 35 |
fomc | 1,977 | Okay, you're just looking at what actually is the-- | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, what I would argue, Paul, is that, if we had not responded to the extent that we did in the face of an 18 percent rise in [money], the reaction in the long-term bond market would have been very different. Well, to go on, Mr. Chairman, I think that I would support alternative B, which is essentially a stand-pat po... | 142 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any views on the discount rate? | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | My inclination would be to go easy on the discount rate at the moment, for two reasons. I think it could well be, in view of my feeling about the deceleration in the economy, that we might have to move short-term rates lower before the end of the year. I would like to see some confirmation in the next month or so of so... | 280 |
fomc | 1,977 | May I ask what you mean by that. You mean that you change your criteria for loans? | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | By administration I mean that we can avoid an excessive use of the window by a bank in order to pick up the differential. | 25 |
fomc | 1,977 | In what way could you avoid it? | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | By kicking them out of the window after a certain amount of time. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | Why? On what basis would you justify such action? | 11 |
fomc | 1,977 | We do anyway. | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Unintelligible] Regulation A. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Our policy is that the discount window is not a permanent source of capital. | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, the purpose of the discount window is not to enable a bank to arbitrage. | 18 |
fomc | 1,977 | But I got the distinct impression you changed your policy in view of a change in monetary attitude on our part. Is that what you're saying? | 28 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't understand what you mean, Phil. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | I got the distinct impression that you were tougher on the banks and wouldn't allow them to get credit--on some of the banks--as a consequence of your changed attitude about monetary policy. | 37 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, I think the wider the spread you have between the discount rate and the federal funds rate, if you have the gap where the discount rate is lower, obviously it's going to be very attractive to banks to come and use the window. And therefore, in that kind of a context, we'd have to administer the window a little more... | 113 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think Philip's got a point there. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | But do we adjust the concept of the discount window to suit our whims or is that a constant criterion that we use at the moment. | 27 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't think Mr. Morris was saying that. I think all that Mr. Morris meant to say was that if bankers are tempted to, as some of them will be, to borrow at the discount window because the discount rate is low relative to this or that market rate, this is something that Mr. Morris's Bank will be aware of, will watch, a... | 115 |
fomc | 1,977 | They do it on a standard of administration which would very seldom change. | 14 |
fomc | 1,977 | But I didn't interpret Mr. Morris to say that the standard would change-- | 15 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's what I think Philip was saying. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's what I would want to get clear, that we weren't changing our standards. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | No, but it's just that the larger the gap between the funds rate and the discount rate, the more administration you have to do. | 27 |
fomc | 1,977 | The more attractive it is to borrow. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | I'm not saying the standards are different. For obviously, when the discount rate is above the funds rate you don't have to do any administering at all. I think that this doesn't mean that we can't live for another month with the present discount rate, that's all, even though the gap is 3/4. | 62 |
fomc | 1,977 | You get more borrowing then. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | You would expect borrowing to go up then. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | Sure. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | I understand exactly what Frank is saying. Inflection in the voice, examiners coming in early. | 20 |
fomc | 1,977 | [Unintelligible]. | 6 |
fomc | 1,977 | The discount window is administered pretty expertly. | 8 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, all right. Now we pass to you, Mr. Kimbrel. | 17 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, operating, I guess, from a personal hunch that maybe the economy is moving along somewhat stronger than it would appear in some segments-- | 31 |
fomc | 1,977 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,977 | --I believe we are reasonably agreed that our fundamental task here is to try to bring the money growth back into the target range, and if that should [require] almost no growth in the aggregates in the near term, that translates with me as at least [a] slightly less accommodative posture. So I find comfort in the numb... | 332 |
fomc | 1,977 | By reasonably early-- | 4 |
fomc | 1,977 | Friday of this week. | 5 |
fomc | 1,977 | We'll now hear from you, Mr. Baughman. | 12 |
fomc | 1,977 | Mr. Chairman, I think it's already been mentioned that we have been in the process of writing a record of monetary policy which will be described as having been procyclical and that we do need to be moderating that as rapidly as possible. There was also a fair amount of conversation this morning about the lack of optim... | 422 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Baughman. Gentlemen, I really have been listening very attentively to what each of you has been saying, but at the same time, I've been engaging in some arithmetical calculations that are of some interest, I think. I commented on the difference earlier between the rates of growth of M1 as we now compute ... | 322 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, I'll just briefly say we could accept the specifications of alternative B, but in view of the July experience, we certainly would not be concerned if growth in the aggregates came in as much as 1 or 2 percentage points below the lower limits of the alternative B tolerance range. In other ... | 83 |
fomc | 1,977 | Any view on the discount rate? | 7 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well sir, I would not want to speak for Bob Black, but I might speak personally. I guess it would be a tough decision, and looking at what's occurred in the funds rate since April, the cumulative rise, it has been up about 1-1/4 percentage points. One could be inclined, I guess, to kind of hold steady for a while in or... | 121 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Rankin. Mr. Partee now, please. | 16 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, Mr. Chairman, I have mixed emotions today. I'm troubled by the increase in various defined aggregates because I think that I am rather in agreement with what Dave Eastburn said, that we're in the process working on a record that's going to show growth well above our limits in the narrow money supply, and perhaps ... | 898 |
fomc | 1,977 | Thank you, Mr. Partee. I'm going to interrupt the flow of thought once again by reporting on what I can extract from these figures. You're going to get very strong support, Mr. Mayo. The table I have before me starts in 1976. Let's go back to April 1976; the rate of monetary growth in April was higher than in the prece... | 323 |
fomc | 1,977 | I think our question is whether we want to make a strong effort to get back on track. We've made, to all appearances, a poor record of these two very high quarters, and the question is whether we should make that effort at the cost of high interest rates and substantially lower growth of the aggregates. Now I'm going t... | 156 |
fomc | 1,977 | Exactly right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,977 | It's really a difference in M1 that tells us that M1 has been higher, which is plausible because we've had these high increases in velocity that we've found hard to explain. Well, given that, now I look at where we are with respect to past long-term ranges, and it's my impression that we are not all that far outside, e... | 596 |
fomc | 1,977 | What are the monetary shocks you were referring to? | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | A sudden change in the demand for money, which seems to be what we've had--it went up very suddenly, and that shock did not come with money [holding] constant [and] the real sector moving. It was the demand for money moving. | 51 |
fomc | 1,977 | All right, thank you, Mr. Wallich. Mr. Volcker now, please. | 19 |
fomc | 1,977 | I must say, Mr. Chairman, if one gets your periodic reports from examining your tables, and listens to Mr. Mayo, and looks at the difference between A, B, and C of 1/2 percent on the aggregates, and looks at what's been happening in ranges of errors of 15 percent, and the estimates are close to it, one has a little sen... | 882 |
fomc | 1,977 | That last I don't see. If the economy slowed down and we became concerned about the degree of retardation of the expansion that was occurring, then presumably market rates would be moving down. | 37 |
fomc | 1,977 | I agree. If it slowed down that much. If we became concerned over the degree of retardation, I agree with you. If it just kind of slowed down to the point we weren't concerned, we wanted to keep the level of market rates, I think this is a fine judgment-- | 58 |
fomc | 1,977 | Not only a fine judgment, but it's a [unintelligible] very, very difficult to, given specific facts, very difficult to-- | 29 |
fomc | 1,977 | I don't think this is an overwhelming case one way or the other here. But I think the presumption is, you keep the discount rate closer in line with market rates than it is at present unless you have a pretty strong reason not to. And I'm not sure we have that stronger reason at the moment. | 62 |
fomc | 1,977 | Paul, may I clarify. Now you said you would have a funds rate range of up to 6-1/2. That would technically mean that you would raise the funds rate conceivably from its present 6 to as high as 6-1/2 with a monetary growth of 5 percent in M1 and an 8 percent in M2. That is to say, you gave as your example, where the ins... | 124 |
fomc | 1,977 | Well, I think technically you might be right. I don't think we should be very eager to change the funds rate, and I wouldn't conceivably go into 6-1/2 until it got above that 5 and 8, for a week or two anyway. | 56 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's not the rule under which we function. | 9 |
fomc | 1,977 | That's not the rule, I think. Exactly. | 10 |
fomc | 1,977 | Let me clarify as far as the rates are concerned. You would go up to a 1/2 percent[age point] increase or 1/4? | 33 |
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