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fomc | 1,994 | Implicit in the third-quarter payroll forecast is an increase of about 250,000 for September. | 19 |
fomc | 1,994 | Working in the strike? | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | This includes in essence no particular assumption for the strike. We have made some back-of-the-envelope calculations, and it is conceivable that it could have a measurable effect. But many of these people are part-time who might have found something else to do. We had the start of the exhibition season for football; t... | 96 |
fomc | 1,994 | Of course, personal income and wages and salaries collapsed! [Laughter] | 15 |
fomc | 1,994 | There would be some loss of hours. | 8 |
fomc | 1,994 | The average hourly earnings approach is infinity for that group. | 11 |
fomc | 1,994 | It's not the players that were-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | It could be a few tens of thousands, conceivably. | 13 |
fomc | 1,994 | I raise it because there was a lot of talk in the summer that the World Cup was adding to employment. I said to myself baseball's got to be bigger than the World Cup--in America, anyway. | 42 |
fomc | 1,994 | In retrospect, the numbers through August looked as if there might have been a World Cup effect--if you look at the areas of employment that might have been sensitive to that. There was that falloff in August. So, there might be some upside bias, all other things equal, in our forecast because we didn't make allowance ... | 74 |
fomc | 1,994 | Okay. The second question has to do with Okun's Law and the 2-year projection. From the end of 1994 to the end of 1996 you have in the Greenbook forecast roughly a 2 percent real GDP growth. If potential is growing at 2-1/2 percent, that suggests a gap of a percentage point which suggests to me a rise in the unemployme... | 116 |
fomc | 1,994 | We are, I think, well aligned with Okun's Law models if you take where we are as the jumping point. | 25 |
fomc | 1,994 | From now. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Right. Clearly, you can get a variety of results depending on what your starting point is, but we looked at this both in terms of the simple rule of thumb of an Okun's Law model working from where we are as well as in terms of models that can reach back a ways and take into account some of the errors that have occurred... | 96 |
fomc | 1,994 | Okay, thank you. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | I should note, Dave Stockton reminds me, that implicit in this forecast is potential output growth more like 2-1/3 percent than 2-1/2 percent. | 36 |
fomc | 1,994 | That's almost enough to square the circle right there. | 10 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'm sorry, I should have noted that. | 9 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thanks. | 2 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'd like to ask a question about imports. In the forecast for the third and fourth quarters the growth rates of imports are the lowest we've seen since, I think, about 1991. Clearly, the direction of effects from exchange rates is supportive of this, but it seems as though it's a rather unrealistic slowing given the st... | 72 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think that's right if you just rely on the microeconomic indicators. There are three factors that I think would produce essentially this result. One is that we had what we think is a bulge in consumer goods imports in the second quarter. We suspect that has to do with either some combination of China or spread of san... | 88 |
fomc | 1,994 | So they showed up in inventories? | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | Part of that has shown up in the level of inventories coming out of the third quarter. The second factor is that there also was a bulge in oil imports in the second quarter--this certainly is a big difference in terms of 1987 dollars. And again we are getting the effects, in fact we are looking for a decrease, in the t... | 152 |
fomc | 1,994 | I see. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, I might bring to the Committee's attention a late-breaking piece of news here this morning. The Conference Board released its survey for September. The headline is that consumer confidence registered its third consecutive monthly loss in September, declining 2 points. In June the index had registered 92.5... | 133 |
fomc | 1,994 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mike, this is a follow-up to Bob Parry's earlier question to Joan. In Part II of the Greenbook, Section III-1, there is a sentence that says: "The press release announcing the August policy moves was widely interpreted as indicating that subsequent action was on hold, at least for a few months, and longer-term rates in... | 97 |
fomc | 1,994 | Well, this is open to varying interpretations! [Laughter] Certainly, as we perceived it, that announcement has been an element in the sense that it gave traders a period of safety in which they didn't have to worry that every bit of incoming economic data would necessarily carry with it the risk of a tightening action.... | 78 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think there's an interesting answer to that. Most of those adjustments that we `see are the dealer responses as distinct from those of the retail pension funds and the like. If you are a dealer and you believe that the chance of the Federal Reserve lowering rates approaches zero, all of the unexpected shocks have got... | 226 |
fomc | 1,994 | It's sort of interesting that we seem to be in a situation where we could get a positive market reaction either by tightening or announcing we are not going to tighten. | 32 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think both. I think the notion is that we tightened and said we are not going to tighten further. It's an effect of the tightening and the statement that nothing is going to happen thereafter. That was essentially our basic thrust as you remember at the last meeting, and I think the markets responded to that double e... | 64 |
fomc | 1,994 | You can see in the fed funds futures that we showed on the chart in the Bluebook that futures for the next few months went up because we tightened by more than people expected, but the rate then sort of flattened out and it was revised down for the months farther out. Whether that was the result of the announcement or ... | 153 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think bond dealers would prefer that (1) the Fed never did anything, (2) that no one released any statistics, and (3) that everything was trading incrementally. Under those conditions they would feel comfortable. Any further questions? Cathy. | 51 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'm interested in the change that you mentioned between August and now. You gave several reasons and the material we've been getting gives several reasons. But in your mind can you prioritize what was the main reason why your forecast and the implicit amount of tightening changed as much as they did from August to now?... | 84 |
fomc | 1,994 | Well, I think I highlighted the numbers that struck us as most important. | 15 |
fomc | 1,994 | Is there one out of that? | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think our sense of the momentum in the consumer sector was altered by the combination of the August retail sales and the upward revisions to the prior months. Private economists had become very enthusiastic about the signs that consumers really had moved to a more cautious spending posture. So this certainly suggeste... | 334 |
fomc | 1,994 | You don't have to go through your whole presentation! I was just looking for-- | 16 |
fomc | 1,994 | Right, capacity utilization is much higher. So, given the momentum, given the slack, we have felt that somewhat greater tightening is probably needed in order to hold the pressures in the economy down to something like those we had in the forecast by the latter part of 1995. | 56 |
fomc | 1,994 | And what would you be looking for in the next data coming in? Would you be looking particularly at the consumer side? | 24 |
fomc | 1,994 | We will be looking at all of these things. We currently are anticipating some bounceback in orders for nondefense capital goods. If we got another very weak report, it might cause us to revise our view of what the trend is in capital spending, which has been giving good impetus to the expansion. Obviously, we'll be loo... | 109 |
fomc | 1,994 | Further questions for either gentleman? If not, who would like to start the round table? President Forrestal. | 22 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I have been reporting for several months now, activity in the Atlanta District remains quite healthy and we see that trend continuing in the future. We are benefiting not only from the cyclical gains in activity that have been experienced around the country, but also from continued in-migrat... | 1,102 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you. President Parry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, a number of signals suggest that economic conditions in the Twelfth District are improving. The current data indicate that the number of payroll jobs in the District rose 1.2 percent over the 12 months through August, the strongest annual growth that we have seen since 1990. Moreover, payroll employment d... | 527 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | The Third District economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, less strongly than the rest of the nation. Total employment is growing, although slowly. Retail sales are expanding with strength notably in durables, particularly in autos. Residential construction on the whole is flat--down a little in some areas, up a ... | 411 |
fomc | 1,994 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | The economy of the Second District actually improved over the last several weeks. Retailers were quite pleased with August sales--reporting year-to-year gains of 3 to 8 percent depending somewhat on the area. Demand in interest-sensitive markets such as housing, cars, and light trucks slowed, however. In the labor mark... | 914 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | In the latter weeks of summer through late August, there were some indications of a deceleration in overall activity in our District. We saw some slowing in retail sales and some softening in manufacturing and service-sector activity. That was reflected in our Beigebook summary this month. But the more recent reports f... | 959 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I tend to concur with both the staff and the markets that both nominal and real fed funds will be higher six months from now than they are today. That doesn't mean we should feel any compelling need to move today. And what I would like to do is to take a look at what I think are two important e... | 97 |
fomc | 1,994 | Do you mean me? | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | Oh, I'm sorry! | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | It's ghosts. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | His ghost is here; he is haunting me. Okay, good, so much for my credibility! | 20 |
fomc | 1,994 | Let the transcript be amended! | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes, if that's possible. | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | That's okay, Peter was replaced by Joan "Levitt." [Laughter] | 16 |
fomc | 1,994 | I would highlight two dates. The first is September 30th and that was mentioned earlier. That's the deadline for the negotiations between the United States and Japan and the issue of rhetoric comes up. I think the situation there has worsened in the last few weeks and that has to do with the changing perception of the ... | 1,190 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | New England's recovery remains respectable in terms of the data, but the pace and feel of economic growth lead me to conclude that we may still be experiencing the lull that we thought was there nationally during the summer. In July, employment growth was just under 2 percent for the region as a whole over the previous... | 780 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you. President Jordan. | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | The District economy is quite strong overall. In fact, there really isn't an area or sector of the District that I would call weak. Tourism has been very good; maybe it's a spillover from New York, I don't know, but everybody talks about having had a record year of tourism, especially in northeast and northwest Ohio. A... | 317 |
fomc | 1,994 | A shortage of teenagers who want to work. | 9 |
fomc | 1,994 | We were especially interested in the question of capacity in the manufacturing sector and put the question directly to a broad array of manufacturers--the whole spectrum whether it's capital goods, machine tools, motor vehicle-related, and so on. Consistently, reports are that they are at capacity and are looking to ex... | 908 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Tenth District economy remains strong, but there are some signs of slowing. By that I mean slowing to a pace more in line with the national rate, so the regional economy is still very strong overall. We are seeing some slowdown in residential construction which suggests that some of the ear... | 443 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, economic activity in the Seventh District remains relatively strong. Most reports indicate an expectation of continued growth in the near term, with the possible exception of residential construction. Manufacturing activity remains robust but has been impacted by capacity constraints as has been mentioned... | 590 |
fomc | 1,994 | Do you want us to ask what your affiliation is in this regard? | 14 |
fomc | 1,994 | Just an observer from Chicago at this point without having had any contact with any of the participants. These are complex negotiations, as we know, under at least two different statutes. I think that Governor Lindsey's scenario is possible, but I would say the probability is higher that the parties will reach agreemen... | 83 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, with regard to the Ninth District economy, the objective measures of economic activity suggest that the regional economy remains strong. The anecdotal evidence--of course there is always a danger of paying too much attention to that--suggests that activity has even picked up another notc... | 489 |
fomc | 1,994 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | Eleventh District business conditions remain good and essentially unchanged from my last several reports. There are no significant new straws in the wind except perhaps on the fashion front where I understand that mohair is gaining in popularity. I'm told that the Eleventh District produces 90 percent of the country's ... | 72 |
fomc | 1,994 | That shows you how much demand there is for more hair! [Laughter] | 16 |
fomc | 1,994 | There's a lot of dust being raised by companies getting ready to do business in Mexico under NAFTA, and unfortunately there are some signs of non-tariff restrictions replacing tariffs as a barrier to trade. In August, I reported complaints by some small banks of very aggressive competition in lending from larger banks.... | 181 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thanks, Alan. Despite hopes to the contrary, the fact is that inflation has turned up. Projected strength in demand, which is a view we would certainly associate ourselves with, may well add further to inflationary strains. In the past three months, both retail sales growth and industrial production have accelerated. P... | 902 |
fomc | 1,994 | This is a manufacturer of what? | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | Steel products for industrial and commercial buildings--warehouses, light industrial buildings, strip shopping centers, that sort of product. To conclude, I'm very concerned about inflation no matter what measure one looks at. In July and August, consumer prices accelerated to an annual rate of 4.1 percent and producer... | 87 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor LaWare. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, I suspect that the death yesterday of the Administration's health care reform scheme may well result in a reversal of some of the recent declines in consumer confidence. On the other hand, the upcoming election will tend to focus attention on voter dissatisfaction with government and support continued unc... | 277 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, very briefly a quick summary of where I am: The inflation news since the last FOMC meeting certainly has not been very helpful, but I don't think there is much evidence that inflation is going to take off on us. We may have some inflation creep on our hands as the Greenbook suggests, and... | 612 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I agree with the central message of the Greenbook that most of the new information that has accumulated during the last six weeks points to continued strength in aggregate demand. The incoming data do not yet provide any significant evidence of a sufficient slowdown in real GDP growth. However, this is not based on a g... | 971 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I have only a few points to make and since probably half the people around the table are as hungry as I am, I will make them quickly. I wasn't planning to say anything about the trade negotiations; but since it was brought up, and lest silence be construed as assent, let me just say that I disagree 99-1/2 percent with ... | 86 |
fomc | 1,994 | It means you agree with him on 1/2 percent? | 13 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think 1/2 percent is on track, and I'll leave it at tha. On the forecast, largely for reasons having to do with inventories, which I brought up at the last FOMC meeting and certainly with the staff, I would look for the third quarter to be weaker than in the Greenbook. By pure arithmetic, some of that difference is g... | 1,196 |
fomc | 1,994 | Finally, Governor Phillips. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | I guess I am left to bat clean-up in an era of a baseball strike, and I'm not quite sure where that leaves me! The economy clearly is going into the fourth year of this upturn and the third year with above-potential GDP growth. As Governor Blinder just described, we are seeing a lot of the strength in manufacturing of ... | 353 |
fomc | 1,994 | We each have one, Mr. Chairman! [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 1,994 | Then you are well prepared. I think some of the numbers that have already been cited here recognize that we are seeing some show-through of price pressures even in the CPI, particularly in the last couple of months. We have all been citing producer price pressures in the last few months, and there are lots of good stat... | 616 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you. Coffee is available. Let's break for coffee and return. | 14 |
fomc | 1,994 | Don Kohn, would you start us off? | 10 |
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