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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,994 | [Statement--See Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | Questions for Don? If not, let me start out. I think the evidence is fairly solid that the industrial momentum that we have been seeing in recent months has a head of steam behind it; we can see it in the order books; we can see it in the backlogs; it's fairly widespread. But as Governor Blinder pointed out, the growth... | 3,480 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, from what we know and can observe today and based on the discussion around the table, I think the right thing to do today is to retain interest rates at their present level. I think we have removed all the accommodation from monetary policy and are the closest we can get to a neutral position. I believe w... | 474 |
fomc | 1,994 | You mean the hawk and the dove combine as a turkey. [Laughter] | 17 |
fomc | 1,994 | So, Mr. Chairman, I firmly agree that "B" tilted toward tightening is the appropriate policy decision. | 22 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, I would support your recommendation. However, I would note that there are inflationary pressures in train. I think they are fairly evident, and we might be well served if we were to act sooner. Therefore, I would support your asymmetric proposal, and if the data come out at all strong, I would encourage y... | 74 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'd also like to support your recommendation and just say a few things. I do take seriously the fact that we, so to speak, gave our marker in August, and we should only be willing to take that marker back if the evidence was overwhelming that we couldn't wait. I think the evidence is not close to overwhelming. The firs... | 252 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Forrestal. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, since I believe that a blip is a blip is a blip, I would support your recommendation. I, too, don't think we're going to need to move in the intermeeting period, but I think it's wise to have the asymmetry as an insurance policy. I agree with your proposal. | 65 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'm comfortable with leaving the funds rate unchanged at 4-3/4 percent. I don't prefer asymmetric directives. I would not dissent from it, but I have two concerns about it. One is that an asymmetric directive toward restraint tends to get the Committee associated with being anti-growth. That's because we have to react ... | 170 |
fomc | 1,994 | You are against the whole notion of asymmetry in the directive? | 13 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes. I think it gets us into a lot of trouble because of the way it gets interpreted. | 20 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, it seems obvious that since our last meeting, pressures on capacity in product and labor markets have grown as have prospects for higher inflation in the future. Thus, it seems to me that we should raise the funds rate again fairly soon. I don't think we have to do it today, but I certainly would prefer a... | 91 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | I support what you propose, Mr. Chairman. I normally don't like moving intermeeting, but I think the chances are we probably should this time. | 30 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor LaWare. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I hope that in casting my vote I will be resolving in my own mind that the Committee not be inhibited in any way in the timing of a move by the proximity of the election. | 46 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | I agree with your recommendation. | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, I continue to think the economy has a lot of momentum. In this situation, it seems to me that inflation expectations are rising. The bond rate is now at its highest point since the 1990-1991 recession. I don't know what the curve looks like--I've never seen it. I'm not sure what its character is, but I th... | 208 |
fomc | 1,994 | "D"? | 2 |
fomc | 1,994 | "D" as in David! | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | I find myself in substantial agreement with Al Broaddus and for many of the same reasons. It seems to me that the economy has a good deal of momentum. I'm not at all confident that we are moving toward a sustainable path at this point. I think the banking system is in the process of supporting rapid growth, and this ma... | 216 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I find myself very much torn at this stage. I have a great deal of sympathy for what both President Broaddus and President Stern have said. I feel, given that the economy has been operating near full capacity for some months now and that the statistics keep coming in much stronger than we anticipated, that the data ove... | 180 |
fomc | 1,994 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, and I do trust your judgment on timing, although I would like to associate myself with Jerry Jordan on my general feelings toward asymmetric directives. | 36 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think a tightening probably is going to be necessary at some point, but again the question is when. I do give credence to this question of credibility, and it seems to me that the evidence is not persuasive that we need to move now. I prefer to give the tightening that's in the pipeline a chance; again, I'd cite the ... | 117 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation. I do not believe we should move today, but we certainly should be prepared to do so between meetings. | 30 |
fomc | 1,994 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | I support your proposal, Mr. Chairman. I think it's conceivable that sufficient evidence could accumulate over the next month or so to warrant a rate hike before our next meeting, but it would take quite a bit to convince me that further tightening prior to the next meeting is in order. | 56 |
fomc | 1,994 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Alan, I'd favor "D" combined with a discount rate increase; I'd do the 50 basis points now. I think it's necessary to contain the emerging inflationary pressures, and I also think it's necessary to make longer-term progress toward price stability. I think, as you and others have observed, that waiting simply makes our ... | 394 |
fomc | 1,994 | Does that include U.S. currency abroad? | 9 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes, that would be in the base. But in any event, I view that as a very stimulative impulse, the effects of which may still be playing through. In the mid-1980s--actually I think it was mid-1988 to mid-1989--we also had very slow growth in the base and reserves for about a 1-year period. That was on top of two prior ye... | 244 |
fomc | 1,994 | Okay, I think the modal consensus is on "B" asymmetric. Would you read the language? | 20 |
fomc | 1,994 | I'll be reading the wording on page 13 in the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving c... | 113 |
fomc | 1,994 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Blinder Yes President Broaddus No President Forrestal Yes President Jordan Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor LaWare Yes Governor Lindsey Yes President Parry Yes Governo- Phillips Yes Governor Yellen Yes | 49 |
fomc | 1,994 | Let me say that under our new procedure for announcing our decisions, Don Kohn thinks that 2:15 p.m. is the appropriate time to announce anything coming out of the meeting, including a statement such as we have made in the past that no action was taken. We violated that last time largely because we finished our meeting... | 143 |
fomc | 1,994 | It will be something similar, I think, to what we did in July. | 16 |
fomc | 1,994 | That is, we will say that the meeting is over and we don't have any further announcement, rather than that we didn't take any action. | 28 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes, no further announcement. | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | Right. And the other point to remind the Committee, Mr. Chairman, is that the asymmetry remains confidential until seven weeks from Friday. | 28 |
fomc | 1,994 | Okay, and the next meeting is November 15. Let's adjourn for lunch. | 18 |
fomc | 1,994 | Good morning, everyone. We ought to congratulate Governor Lindsey who has just returned without mishap from Rumania with an addition to his family. | 29 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes! | 2 |
fomc | 1,994 | Congratulations. [Applause] | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | What do you have, a girl? | 8 |
fomc | 1,994 | A girl? | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | A one-year old girl. | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | How nice. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | What I have been trying to tell Larry was that he had better learn Rumanian pretty quickly because when she learns to talk if he does not understand Rumanian, he is in trouble! | 39 |
fomc | 1,994 | He's in trouble anyway! [Laughter] | 9 |
fomc | 1,994 | For now, it is either feed me or change me; that won't always be so. | 18 |
fomc | 1,994 | I think we'll allow you to move approval of the minutes for the September 27th meeting. | 19 |
fomc | 1,994 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Without objection. You all have before you the Report of Examination of the System Open Market Account that was distributed on November 3rd. Are there any questions relating to that? If not, would somebody like to move its acceptance? | 46 |
fomc | 1,994 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,994 | Without objection. After we complete our general monetary policy discussion, I am going to raise some broad issues about our recent intervention in the foreign exchange markets. I will also comment about the alleged increase in central bank participation in the G-7 process. So, after Peter discusses his operations, let... | 104 |
fomc | 1,994 | [Statement--See Appendix.] Mr. Chairman, I wasn't quite sure how you wanted to proceed. I could take questions on the report, or I could go on and ask for ratification of the operations and renewal of the swap lines. Should I just go on with each of those? | 58 |
fomc | 1,994 | Why don't you do that? We will then have general questions on all issues but leave the intervention discussion until later. | 23 |
fomc | 1,994 | I will need the Committee's ratification of our operations on Wednesday, November 2; we sold $400 million equivalent of Japanese yen and $400 million equivalent of German marks for the System's Account. On November 3, we sold $250 million of yen and $250 million of marks for the System's Account. Thus, over the period ... | 141 |
fomc | 1,994 | Let me just say this. If anyone objects to voting until we have had our discussion on intervention, we can delay the vote. If anybody wants to object, object now and we will just postpone the vote. | 42 |
fomc | 1,994 | I would appreciate it if the swap vote could be delayed until later. | 14 |
fomc | 1,994 | That's fine. In fact, there is a certain symmetry in doing that. So why don't we leave that vote until later? I was a little curious myself as to why the dollar was as strong as it was yesterday. You implied that the reason was because the foreign exchange market expected us to move today. But last week and two weeks a... | 80 |
fomc | 1,994 | I admit it is rather hard to fathom. I think it is this combination of foreign demand surprising the dealer community which has for some time now been playing the dollar from the short side. I think the two factors continue to operate together. The surprising election result last Wednesday produced precisely that seque... | 173 |
fomc | 1,994 | Peter, you indicated that you inferred from the market that we are behind the curve in three areas and that we are in striking distance of reaching at least one or more of those curves. Is there any view within the foreign exchange market that puts federal funds numbers on that? | 54 |
fomc | 1,994 | The very fact that we are effectively at parity on the funds rate with German rates suggests that any move we make now will give the dollar a cost-of-carry advantage against the mark. One of the things that some people talk about and that I perceive as important is that the foreign exchange market generally is not focu... | 209 |
fomc | 1,994 | Any other questions? | 4 |
fomc | 1,994 | Peter, your remarks suggested that some traders view intermediate- and long-term U.S. Treasury rates as not being at a high enough level. That differs from a feeling that a policy action by this Committee to increase the funds rate will at least temporarily depress bond prices. Which is it? Are they saying that the lev... | 89 |
fomc | 1,994 | Let me answer that in a couple of ways. It obviously varies depending on the institution. The point is that the Fed being perceived as behind each of those curves means it is rather hard to justify and means that foreign demand is around the corner. There are extraordinarily high real returns in foreign bond markets, a... | 237 |
fomc | 1,994 | Any further questions? If not, we'll go on to Joan Lovett. | 15 |
fomc | 1,994 | Do you want to ratify the foreign operations or do you want to save that for later also? | 20 |
fomc | 1,994 | We will save that for later on. In other words, until we have the discussion, it would be inappropriate to vote on the ratification. Joan. | 31 |
fomc | 1,994 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--See Appendix.] | 13 |
fomc | 1,994 | Joan, was that 4.79 percent the federal funds rate average since the last FOMC meeting? | 23 |
fomc | 1,994 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | What is it so far this month? Do you remember? | 12 |
fomc | 1,994 | For the month of November? | 6 |
fomc | 1,994 | The month of November to date. | 7 |
fomc | 1,994 | I don't know the precise average, but it is on the high side, because after its rise at the end of the quarter the rate never really went back down. The last statement week ended on a firm note and it was a holiday on Friday. With expectations of a rate move at this meeting today, the funds rate has been persistently a... | 72 |
fomc | 1,994 | So it would be more than 4.79 percent? | 12 |
fomc | 1,994 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,994 | Would it be 4.82, 4.83 percent? | 14 |
fomc | 1,994 | The month-to-date effective rate is 4.81 percent, Mr. Chairman. | 17 |
fomc | 1,994 | For November. | 3 |
fomc | 1,994 | For November, okay. | 5 |
fomc | 1,994 | That 5.11 percent futures rate implies 5.34 percent for the remainder of the month. | 21 |
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