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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,995 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. The domestic Desk transactions? | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Second? | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. Let's now move on to what used to be called the Chart Show. Whatever happened to the chart presentation? | 24 |
fomc | 1,995 | We didn't have it in February. It's an open issue for July. | 14 |
fomc | 1,995 | We don't have it today? | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | No. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | That sounds like a precedent to me! [Laughter] | 12 |
fomc | 1,995 | Either that or an exception. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Messrs. Prell and Truman. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | After we have gone on even briefly you may decide that you don't want the full length Chart Show, but we'll see. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 30 |
fomc | 1,995 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Questions for either gentleman? | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mike, in terms of the growth rates for the baseline forecast of real GDP, it looks like almost a perfect soft landing in some respects. But as one focuses more on what the economy looks like in 1996, it seems to me that there are some very troubling aspects, particularly if one considers what a simulation for 1997 migh... | 173 |
fomc | 1,995 | Reading the numbers as precisely as they are written down, the thrust of the baseline forecast is that we think we have a modest degree of financial restraint that will hold growth slightly below potential and have the unemployment rate creep up. But we are at a point where we think high levels of resource utilization ... | 94 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mike, I guess I am a little surprised at your answer to Bob, and that intrigues me some because my question related to the almost "too good to be true" sort of pattern for nominal GDP growth through the next two years and the composition of prices--whether the deflator or the CPI--and output. If I understand it, your a... | 88 |
fomc | 1,995 | That is correct. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | You have long bond yields coming down somewhat further. You don't say how much, but I assume you still have an upward sloping yield curve through the whole two-year period. | 35 |
fomc | 1,995 | Essentially, we would have an upward slope of average dimension. | 13 |
fomc | 1,995 | Some liquidity premium in there? | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | So you have nominal spending rising at a rate of less than 5 percent for eight quarters and pretty much a flat pattern through 1996. It's not much different from the last several Greenbooks except that at least it's flat now whereas before it dropped this year and rose later. So, to decompose nominal spending into its ... | 218 |
fomc | 1,995 | If you are asking whether the relationship of nominal interest rates to nominal growth looks abnormal or unreasonable here, I would say that there is not a very strong regularity in the history of the relationship between nominal interest rates and nominal GDP growth. We have played around with some econometric exercis... | 205 |
fomc | 1,995 | If I could follow up--one thing implicit in both the assumptions and the forecast and your responses to me and to Bob Parry earlier is that either the financial markets are embodying and maintaining a higher inflation premium for a sustained period of time than what we are observing or we have a higher real yield. I ta... | 98 |
fomc | 1,995 | We are slightly above the ceiling now, drifting back toward the ceiling. | 14 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay, but at least not below it. | 9 |
fomc | 1,995 | We are splitting hairs here. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | So you would say it is unlikely that the real yield embodied in financial instruments is higher than what the economy is actually churning out or capable of churning out. Unless you have some sort of risk or uncertainty assumption in there, that implies that the market is maintaining an inflation premium. Market partic... | 82 |
fomc | 1,995 | Let me separate these questions. In some simple models, one can relate the observed real rate of interest to the longer-term growth of the economy as a sort of equilibrium, steady state condition. But if one starts elaborating those models, it can get much more complicated. On the question of what we think is going on ... | 125 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | At this point, in our judgment, the notion of a downward trend to inflation is not embedded in the markets. Rather, there is some more inflation in the works, as President Parry was suggesting. Our forecast is pointing toward some gradual pickup to a higher level of inflation. | 56 |
fomc | 1,995 | Other questions? | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I did have a question, but I am again picking up on Bob Parry, especially on the answer to his question. | 25 |
fomc | 1,995 | Picking on him or picking up on him? | 9 |
fomc | 1,995 | No, picking up on him--definitely not picking on him. Inspired by him. Mike, referring to your answer to Bob, I was reading the quarterly Greenbook numbers on the capacity utilization rate. They peak at 85.1 and they go down every single quarter through 1996 Q4, at that point reaching 82.9. I can't imagine, though I th... | 158 |
fomc | 1,995 | Indeed. But in 1997, assuming gradual convergence, we are as I said splitting hairs. | 20 |
fomc | 1,995 | You already have 5.8 percent unemployment and 82.9 capacity utilization by the end of 1996. | 24 |
fomc | 1,995 | Exactly, and in 1997 on this trajectory, we would get back to the NAIRU and a little lower on capacity utilization. In theory at that point, the inflation rate would stabilize at just a hair higher than we observe as the trend to 1996. | 55 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Maybe this is cutting it too close, but if you look at the two years together in the Greenbook, we have a little more inflation this year because of what we have assumed about the dollar. Therefore, the flatness produces a bit of a distortion. It suggests that the trend is very gradual, but there may be more trend than... | 73 |
fomc | 1,995 | We are using the usual sacrifice ratios and a NAIRU around 6 percent; and given our projected unemployment rate, we are only talking about accelerations of a couple of tenths a year. The convergence by 1997 implies that we may not even have that in that year. | 58 |
fomc | 1,995 | That was my point. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | The point I wanted to make was that clearly your projection does not show any improvement on inflation; we are not making progress. | 25 |
fomc | 1,995 | I understood it to be a deterioration. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | A slight deterioration. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Further questions? If not, who would like to start the discussion? President McTeer. | 19 |
fomc | 1,995 | The Eleventh District has slowed somewhat over the past few months, and most of the slowing seems to be in Texas rather than in our parts of New Mexico and Louisiana. A member of our Advisory Council on Small Business and Agriculture said with respect to New Mexico that they had "hit the three cherries" there this past... | 318 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Both the statistical indicators and our informal contacts suggest that the pace of expansion is slowing in the First District. Since we never got into an expansionary phase to begin with, this is not being met with great joy around the District. Payroll employment in the region grew a little more slowly at the end of 1... | 830 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, growth in the Twelfth District economy as a whole remains moderately strong. The District's unemployment rate has dropped 1-1/2 percentage points in the past 12 months. The intermountain states have experienced very rapid growth, although we have seen some moderation recently. In California, the modest re... | 599 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, Seventh District manufacturing activity remained brisk in recent months, but there were signs of moderation in some of the interest rate-sensitive industries, notably autos and single-family housing. Sales of autos and light trucks in January and February came in under a 15 million unit, seasonally adjust... | 911 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mike, when Hoosiers see something that is too good to be true, they know it probably is. [Laughter] | 26 |
fomc | 1,995 | Spoken like a true Hoosier! | 9 |
fomc | 1,995 | Quick, President Broaddus. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, reports coming out of our District, which I would remind you is the District where Michael Jordan came from originally-- [Laughter] | 30 |
fomc | 1,995 | He's now in Chicago. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | These reports continue to show some slowing in the regional economy. We do, of course, conduct monthly manufacturing and service sector surveys, and for the latest two months both surveys are consistent with some general softening in activity in our region. Our directors, while they are still broadly optimistic, are pr... | 945 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Forrestal. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, the economy in the Southeast has continued to expand in the first quarter, although we are seeing some signs of slowing from last year's very strong fourth quarter. Employment growth accelerated in January, and preliminary February data suggest both strong employment growth and a further decline in the Di... | 935 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District economy remains strong, with strength evident throughout the region. Our directors are uniformly reporting robust growth in all District states. Moreover, recently revised employment data confirm the strength of the District economy. Nonfarm jobs were up 4.2 percent in January over the ... | 574 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The Fourth District is operating at a very high level of economic activity, though clearly the rate of change has slowed. Directors and other contacts consistently report that business is not growing as fast as last year, but there are very few indications of anything declining in an absolute sense or even concerns of ... | 740 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | There are some clear signs of moderating growth in the Philadelphia District. Manufacturers in particular indicate a slackening pace that is apparent in new and unfilled orders as well as current shipments. Retailers report a slowing pace of sales, especially in autos and other durables, although I think there is consi... | 512 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me comment first on the national economy. I find myself a little more confident than I normally am about the general contour of the Greenbook forecast in part because, as many people have commented, the incoming data on the national economy are convincing evidence to me that the pace of gro... | 479 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thanks, Alan. My view is that the U.S. economy continues to show strength even though there are now a few signs that the pace of economic activity may be slowing. Real GDP grew at a 4.6 percent rate in the fourth quarter according to the most recent estimate. Inventories were a net drag on output growth and domestic de... | 631 |
fomc | 1,995 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, the Second District economy, which has been flat for about the last six months, had a little positive flurry, mainly in New York State, in February with retail sales and employment up a bit. However, the continuing announcement of shrinkage by major employers, the difficulties on Wall Street, and certain ... | 594 |
fomc | 1,995 | Let's take a 10 minute coffee break at this point. | 12 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Kelley, you have the floor. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would like to lean into the wind a little here as several have done, particularly the Vice Chairman when he spoke just a moment ago. I don't think there is much question that the expansion seems to be slowing right now, and I certainly respect the strong logic in the Greenbook about the expec... | 285 |
fomc | 1,995 | I think it is three years. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Three years? I'm sorry. I didn't go back far enough in my research. The economy is still forming new jobs at a rapid clip--500,000 or so in the first two months. The related earnings will be kicking into the spending stream. I am not sure what may happen on inventories, but certainly we still have a very low historic i... | 393 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. In December I thought a slowdown was likely, or feasible, and the evidence is now becoming a bit more definite that we are seeing that slowdown. I think everybody has been pretty consistent in citing housing and retail sales--autos and durables in particular--as the weakening areas. I guess consumers are fin... | 679 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. Governor Lindsey. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like my colleague, Governor Kelley, I am agnostic. The difference is that I am a scared agnostic. Maybe I have to find the right church to go to or something to make me feel better about the future. I am scared for two reasons. First, with regard to the domestic economy, I think that the Greenb... | 720 |
fomc | 1,995 | What I read mainly is that the variance is rising. I couldn't quite figure out where the signs came out. | 22 |
fomc | 1,995 | That is why I am an agnostic. | 9 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | The data that we reviewed at our last meeting provided inconclusive and, as we put it, tentative signs of slowing in growth. The magnitude of any moderation in demand growth seemed uncertain and the timing of the long awaited slowdown was also in question. That certainly raised the concern that it wasn't going to occur... | 782 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman, I will be quite brief. The scenario sketched in the Greenbook looks reasonable to me both in broad outline and in most particulars. A definition of a reasonable forecast is that there should be risks on both sides, and they should be reasonably close to balanced. I think this one is, but I woul... | 297 |
fomc | 1,995 | Why don't you repeat that; I want to get all the signs right! [Laughter] | 19 |
fomc | 1,995 | You want to get all the signs? I think it is less likely that this is a false negative. That was two negatives; I think I got three in the first go-around. On the down side, it seems my role in this FOMC meeting is to keep echoing what Bob Parry said. I agree very much with Bob's analysis. As I look at the pieces of th... | 642 |
fomc | 1,995 | Let's move on to Don Kohn. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The first sentence of my briefing comes directly from Governor Blinder's comments. I expected coffee in between! [Statement--see Appendix.] | 34 |
fomc | 1,995 | Don, we have revisited periodically the issue of going back to some form of credit variable target to replace the funds rate target. You sort of dismissed that in your statement. | 35 |
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