Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. The presumption as to the size of each pass is sort of built into the assumptions about how we operate. We have to look at the two together. | 33 |
fomc | 1,995 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | We will be looking at that. There are arguments for smaller passes with more frequent operations; there are arguments for larger ones. I have had some very interesting discussions with other central bankers in my position about the nature of a central bank portfolio and how to think about it. There is not much divergen... | 161 |
fomc | 1,995 | Especially if you have to sell. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | And to whom. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | And to who. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | And to whom. [Laughter] | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | I'm sorry Peter, I just thought I would pick on you this morning. I took a pill that says, "Pick on Peter." | 27 |
fomc | 1,995 | That's fine. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | He can take it. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | So, there is a wide range of views. A number of central banks that apply very sophisticated approaches to their foreign currency portfolios--really as profit centers--have been backfitting some of that financial technology into thinking about their domestic portfolios. | 48 |
fomc | 1,995 | Can I suggest that we consider this issue periodically? The issue raised by Governor Blinder is something that is very important for us to look at. The way you phrased your answer, Peter, I think underscores that. To maintain the status quo really makes no sense whatever. The crucial question is: What liquidity needs d... | 583 |
fomc | 1,995 | I wonder if Peter would comment on whether he is holding the fed funds rate up to 6 percent or down to 6 percent. | 27 |
fomc | 1,995 | By normally leaving the market a little short, we continue to push the rate in that direction. The rate expectations can be seen in the fed funds futures contracts. Both my report and Don's report indicate that the market is looking for the funds rate to be edging down, or skewed slightly in that direction, over coming... | 219 |
fomc | 1,995 | Further questions? If not, we need to take three votes. The first is to ratify the foreign currency transactions since the last meeting. | 28 |
fomc | 1,995 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. Second, we will need to ratify the domestic operations during the intermeeting period. | 20 |
fomc | 1,995 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. Finally, Peter has requested an increase in the intermeeting leeway from $8 to $10 billion. May I have a motion on that? | 32 |
fomc | 1,995 | Move approval of the $10 billion limit. | 9 |
fomc | 1,995 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. Now let's go on to Mike Prell. | 12 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 13 |
fomc | 1,995 | Questions for Mike? Mike, I meant to look up something before we came in. I don't know if you have the data with you, but what is the gap between new orders of durable goods and shipments in the last report? | 46 |
fomc | 1,995 | It will take me a minute or so to find that. I think we are still seeing rising backlogs. | 22 |
fomc | 1,995 | My recollection is that we have a spread of several percentage points. The reason I raise the question is to gauge how much of a drop in new orders can occur in the near term without unfilled orders also turning down. | 45 |
fomc | 1,995 | I can't give you that answer immediately. I'm sorry. | 11 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mike, the forecast that you gave has the core CPI running at roughly 3 percent throughout the last half of 1995 and all of 1996, and you have built in, of course, the assumption of a flat fed funds rate at 6 percent. Just looking at those two numbers would mean that the real fed funds rate would be roughly 3 percent du... | 122 |
fomc | 1,995 | I don't have in mind a particular number that goes with neutrality in the sense that over time one would expect the economy to grow at potential--or to sit at potential output. We have interpreted monetary policy per se as probably modestly restrictive at this point. That is, the real rate of interest is perhaps somewh... | 155 |
fomc | 1,995 | But is there a zone or number that you think of as a neutral monetary policy? | 17 |
fomc | 1,995 | We would anticipate, particularly in an environment of ongoing fiscal restraint, that the equilibrium as we look ahead to 1996, 1997, 1998 would be one in which the real short-term interest rate would move closer to its historical average; that rate would be on the order of 2 percent or maybe a bit less. This would sug... | 149 |
fomc | 1,995 | In March? | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | In March. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Ted, your forecast for Japan indicates a fairly respectable pickup in 1995 and 1996, and I saw that the consensus of about 15 international forecasters is very close to your forecast. I was wondering how important fiscal stimulus was in that forecast. We have had instances in the last couple of years where the degree o... | 88 |
fomc | 1,995 | Just one technical point: The pickup as far as this year is concerned is quite modest. I think the fundamental pickup may be seen by focusing on the fourth quarter-over-fourth quarter number. Because there was a big negative number last year, the pickup looks a little better as a percent than we would think, though we ... | 308 |
fomc | 1,995 | Does your forecast have an explicit assumption about trade relations with the United States? | 15 |
fomc | 1,995 | We have essentially ignored the trade relations question in the forecast. So, I guess implicitly we are assuming that some time between now and the end of June this particular matter will be settled. There are then two questions. One would be what happens if Congress does go through with the sanctions. The trade and th... | 344 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mike, my questions are really along the same lines as those that Mike Moskow asked you earlier. Your response to him frankly is not the response I would have expected from my reading of the Greenbook. A year ago at this meeting we were talking about this issue of neutrality. There was a fair amount of discussion then a... | 383 |
fomc | 1,995 | I don't know that the concept of neutrality was ever particularly well defined, and I think the kind of economic outcome that would ensue from a given short-term real rate of interest is going to vary considerably over time, depending on fiscal policy and other impulses. So, I have problems putting myself in that parti... | 234 |
fomc | 1,995 | It strikes me that the concept probably does not have useful meaning unless we stipulate that we are in an environment in which the budget is balanced, prices are stable, and the exchange rate is stable. The latter, of course, is a function of what other nations are doing as well. To have a concept of neutrality when a... | 156 |
fomc | 1,995 | I don't think so. As I said, I think that a number of environmental factors would alter the implications of a given real interest rate level. Thus, I don't think there is a number for all time. | 42 |
fomc | 1,995 | The question would be--I'm sorry. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | I was just going to say, building on what you said, Mr. Chairman, that in the long-run scenario in the last Bluebook, as Mike pointed out, the real funds rate was coming down to stabilize not prices but the inflation rate. One of the factors making rate declines necessary was that the impulse from the decline in the ex... | 101 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Absent supply shocks, Mike, and absent a real contractionary effect from fiscal policy, I would like to talk a little about your inflation forecast and the idea that you believe the risks are fairly evenly balanced around the forecast--at least that is my understanding of what you said. In particular, I was drawn to th... | 178 |
fomc | 1,995 | Two comments may be useful in responding to that. One is that you characterized the range of possible NAIRU levels as being one that was sort of biased to the up side of where our forecast has been recently. As we are interpreting it, I think we would say that might be a little too pessimistic. Perhaps one of the risks... | 104 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Basically, our forecast is one in which the economy is operating, at worst, just a shade below the full employment level, or the NAIRU, as we move through 1996. In that kind of environment, one would not anticipate a great deal of pressure toward higher inflation. So, given the recent experience and the factors that su... | 300 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I have a question that is related to a couple you have already fielded about looking out over a little longer time horizon. But mine may be a bit more specific and pointed. As I look at the last four quarters of this forecast, it gives off the aura of a steady state in all aspects except one. Real GDP is growing at a r... | 232 |
fomc | 1,995 | I think that relationship has varied considerably over decent spans of time historically. So, they have not moved in precise lockstep. | 25 |
fomc | 1,995 | Pretty close, though. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | We are certainly mindful of there being a relationship over time. By the end of the period, we are moving into the vicinity, if not below, what one might judge to be a natural rate of capacity utilization in manufacturing. This reflects in part the slower growth of goods output in the economy, but it also reflects the ... | 182 |
fomc | 1,995 | So, if I can interpret your answer: If the demand for goods and services is growing at a fairly steady pace and the capacity in manufacturing to produce goods is growing faster, then you would get ever decreasing capacity utilization in manufacturing. Maybe not forever but-- | 51 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. Obviously, as we move out into 1996 and capacity utilization drops, corporate profits will not be growing the way they have been, cash flow won't be as favorable, and all of these factors will work to damp further increments to growth of the capital stock in manufacturing. We are not going to have an ongoing decli... | 115 |
fomc | 1,995 | Just econometrically, Governor Blinder, the relationship between the unemployment rate and capacity utilization that we have in this forecast is well within the historical range that we have had in the past 20 or 30 years. Indeed, capacity utilization is on the low side relative to the unemployment rate. | 59 |
fomc | 1,995 | Is capacity utilization converging to 81 percent? That's what I'm driving at. Where is it going? | 21 |
fomc | 1,995 | I'm not sure. I have a concept of a convergence process here, but over time the average and what we estimate as being a natural rate in terms of price behavior is at 82 percent or maybe a bit less. One would anticipate that if we stretch this out, there would be some processes that would probably move us in that direct... | 68 |
fomc | 1,995 | Any further questions for Mike? If not, who would like to start our round table? President Broaddus. | 23 |
fomc | 1,995 | Current economic conditions and near-term prospects in our District remain mixed, as they have been for the last couple of months. Most of our business contacts confirm an ongoing moderation in economic activity. In our region as elsewhere the softening in activity is most pronounced in consumer spending and in housing... | 842 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Forrestal. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the Southeast has been slowing recently to a more sustainable rate of growth. Notwithstanding that slower growth, job expansion in the District continues to outpace that for the nation as a whole, although by a somewhat smaller margin than earlier, and the unemployment rate... | 604 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, on balance economic activity in the Seventh District in the last two months seems to have continued the slowing pace of growth in the first quarter--led, of course, by developments in the automobile sector. Confidentially, we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for May, which I caution will not be... | 827 |
fomc | 1,995 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, the Second District economy remains fairly flat. On balance, the data indicate that the rate of job layoffs is slowing, but job creations and new business incorporations have yet to show any kind of a typical post-recession surge in growth. In April, the unemployment rate rose to 6.8 percent in New York a... | 761 |
fomc | 1,995 | No comment. President Minehan. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Economic activity in the First District is growing at a very modest pace. Payroll employment in most of the major industries in the District is little changed since the end of 1994. Services employment in particular seems to have lost the buoyancy of last year, but it is too soon really to tell whether this slowing ref... | 799 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, growth in the Twelfth District economy still has considerable momentum, although the pace of expansion has slowed recently. Household job growth in the first quarter was fast enough to bring the District's unemployment rate down about 1/4 percentage point since the end of last year. However, growth in Dis... | 474 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Looking at the available statistics, the Third District economy clearly has slowed in recent months across a broad front, including manufacturing, retailing, and residential construction. Looking beyond the statistics, however, I think what we are seeing is a downward adjustment in the rate of growth rather than a cumu... | 313 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District generally remains strong with some signs of modest slowing starting to emerge. Overall, though, the District's sectors generally are continuing to exhibit strength and our directors do report consistently healthy growth across the region. For example, recent monthly employment data show... | 468 |
fomc | 1,995 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Employment growth in the Eleventh District has slowed somewhat in recent months. Beginning in the second quarter of 1989, the Eleventh District had 22 consecutive quarters of faster employment growth than the United States as a whole. In the past two quarters, our employment growth has converged with the U.S. rate and ... | 467 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The economy of the Ninth District is similar to what has been reported in virtually all the other Districts. The pace of expansion has slowed. But I must say the tenor of the information and anecdotes that have come in suggests to me that, relative to the numbers that we have seen for the national economy, the District... | 383 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Alan. The pace of Eighth District economic activity, while decelerating modestly in some areas, exhibits few signs of a pending slump. Unemployment in the major District states remained at 4-1/2 percent in March, well below the national average. Parts of the District continue to report tight labor market con... | 600 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | A few weeks ago, in the last couple of days or so of April, I attended a meeting of over 100 business and civic leaders from northeast Ohio. Martin Feldstein made a presentation to the group and answered questions. His prepared remarks were about Mexico, but during the question-and-answer period, Marty was asked about ... | 1,429 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, it seems to me that we are in a classic wait-and-see period here. The expansion is obviously slowing and there are a lot of factors, which have been well aired here this morning, that could take the economy in the direction of either greater near-term or longer-term weakness or strength. It is just too ea... | 312 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The predicted slowdown is well under way. It seems to be pretty widespread, led by housing and consumer durables. Business investment is likely to be off in 1995 relative to 1994, but still strong enough to provide a reasonable cushion during this slowdown period. It appears that only the auto manufacturers have been s... | 714 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I think I am going to be a minority here. Two things concern me, one of which has not been mentioned at all and that is credit conditions. It was pointed out that there has been a lot of easing of credit terms. At some point that is going to stop. Having arrived here at a very scary time in 1991, I am get... | 1,361 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | As I evaluate the most recent set of economic data, I remain quite optimistic that we will achieve the soft landing projected in the Greenbook, with growth slowing below trend during 1995 and rising back toward trend in 1996, and with inflation remaining contained during the process. Historically, of course, soft landi... | 1,056 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I'll be mercifully brief as the last speaker. Except for a few details, one of which I mentioned about capacity utilization and a few more which I will mention in a moment, I think the Greenbook forecast is pretty reasonable both on the real and the nominal fronts. I would shade it a bit lower on real growth in the nea... | 255 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.