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fomc | 1,995 | I think the support of the Chancellor for the process is really the only thing standing in the way of the deluge of public opposition. | 27 |
fomc | 1,995 | He took a position as I read it that didn't say what he said; or if he said it, he didn't mean it; and if he meant it, he shouldn't have. | 36 |
fomc | 1,995 | All of the above! | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | This is a question on a different subject entirely, the fiscal situation. Going out to 1997, Mike, I noticed that the Greenbook forecast showed real GDP growing at 2 percent in 1997. The reduction in government purchases seemed to have a big impact on GDP going out that far. I really have three questions: Is this viewe... | 115 |
fomc | 1,995 | I think it ultimately depends on what monetary policy you pursue. In essence, given our assumption of little change in the federal funds rate--we have just a little ticking down at the end of next year--we don't see here an aggressive effort to offset the ongoing fiscal restraint. We have specified a three-year reducti... | 338 |
fomc | 1,995 | But if you kept monetary policy steady at its current level during this period, is there a wealth effect that would increase private-sector spending to compensate for any of this reduction through lower taxes or anything like that? | 41 |
fomc | 1,995 | In our forecast we don't anticipate that there will be any favorable wealth effects as we move beyond this year. | 21 |
fomc | 1,995 | Further questions? | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Could I follow up on that last question? Mike, I would think that the impact on the economy of any particular budget would depend heavily on the degree of substitutability between government products and services and private-sector products and services. Have you looked at that issue? | 53 |
fomc | 1,995 | There are some very obvious questions, for example in the area of medical care. We have not specified our package in a way that calls for staking out any position on this. But it's quite conceivable that people of reasonable means, if they were called on to pay a larger Medicare premium or to have some deductible or so... | 291 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay. Would somebody like to start our roundtable discussion? President Forrestal. | 16 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I reported last time, the economy of the Sixth District is generally quite healthy. Activity is continuing to move along the path of moderate expansion and moderate inflation. Retailers are reasonably optimistic. Tourism continues to be a stimulative in the economy, and construction is impro... | 863 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, economic growth in the Twelfth District picked up this summer. The annual rate of job growth in California has accelerated by about 1 percentage point--from less than 1 percent this spring to about 2 percent currently. The early 1995 declines in manufacturing employment have been reversed and locally orie... | 559 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | I think it's fair to say that we have not had any dramatic changes in business conditions in our District, but on balance my sense is that overall conditions in the District are a little stronger than they were at the time of our last meeting. We conduct monthly surveys, as some of you may know, of activity in manufact... | 930 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Recent data and anecdotal evidence indicate that the economy in the Philadelphia District is growing, but not strongly; growth continues at less than the national pace. Manufacturing has reversed course after a weak first half and is growing again. Residential construction has stabilized after a period of weakness earl... | 386 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Tenth District economy remains really strong, with only a few signs of weakness here and there. The improvement observed at midyear has been sustained, with strength reflected across several areas. Employment has posted healthy gains over the last few months in our region. Manufacturing sta... | 458 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, you probably remember from the board meeting that you attended a week or two ago at the Boston Fed our characterization of the New England economy since the summer as a tale of two sections. Overall, the region's jobs grew just about 0.8 percent during the year ending in July--that compares with national ... | 985 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, we are in general agreement with the Greenbook forecast, so I'll focus my comments on developments in the Seventh District. Overall, it appears that District economic activity has been picking up in the third quarter. Consumer spending seems to have strengthened in September. Retailers in the District gen... | 1,018 |
fomc | 1,995 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Over the past few meetings I have been reporting that the Eleventh District economy has slowed from its very strong growth in 1994 to something a little less strong this year. This month's Beigebook singled out Dallas and New York as the two Districts whose economies have slowed. I should emphasize that the slowing is ... | 805 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. President Melzer. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thanks, Alan. The Eighth District economy continues to grow at a pace largely unchanged from recent reports. In general, negative news appears to have been mostly offset by plant expansions, new hiring, and sales gains. Reported layoffs from downsizing and plant closings are scattered throughout the District, and such ... | 863 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The Ninth District economy remains strong. Labor markets are tight. The rate of unemployment in Minnesota is at or near an all-time low. Particularly bright spots in the economy are construction, both residential and commercial, mining and energy output, and forest products. The only major exceptions to this generally ... | 214 |
fomc | 1,995 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, broad measures of employment suggest that economic growth ticked up in recent weeks in the Second District. If, however, as President McTeer suggested, our two Districts are the weak Districts, I'd like to merge immediately. In August, payroll employment rose at an annual rate of 2 percent in New Jersey a... | 418 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | At a recent joint board meeting, one of our directors whose firm employs a lot of people in four of the states in the region listed a number of the major metropolitan areas and said the employment situation was very bad there. I interrupted to ask him to clarify what he meant and his reply was that he could not hire an... | 942 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, my opinion about the national economy has changed very little since our last meeting. Although the inventory adjustment may not be entirely behind us, the various sectoral reports on spending seem consistent with continued growth over the next year or so at a pace close to trend. I interpret recent inflat... | 719 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I can't top that! On the fiscal situation, the Greenbook now assumes that the Congress ultimately will pass 85 percent of the reductions called for in the Congressional budget resolution. Believe it or not, I think that assumption is still a little too low. I think it will be more like 95 percent, but at least we are g... | 146 |
fomc | 1,995 | Wooster. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Wooster. Well, I didn't hear it right. | 11 |
fomc | 1,995 | I said that for Don Kohn's benefit. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | The question I would pose is what would I hear if I were to go to Wooster, Ohio just after Thanksgiving. Everyone has come to grandma's house and a cousin, who unlike all other federal workers is a good worker, [Laughter] has been laid off and tells his tale at the Thanksgiving table. I think there would be a perceptib... | 846 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I am not going to try to pick up on that analogy! | 13 |
fomc | 1,995 | I appreciate your not doing that. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Let me make a brief intervention because like so many others and the way Mike Prell started this morning, I see very little change from where we were in August. Relative to the Greenbook, I continue to believe that the risks, if that is the proper word, are on the up side and I am in the camp that would be closer to th... | 481 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. Governor Phillips. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My remarks will be short this morning. In view of the revised GDP number that we have received since the last meeting and the somewhat mixed economic signals that we have been getting and certainly have discussed around the table today, I think it's fair to say that the inventory cycle may have... | 674 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. Governor Blinder. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There are two basic reasons for revising a forecast from one meeting to another. One is that you receive news that makes you change your mind; the other is that you goofed the last time. I don't think either one is true in this case. I don't think the staff goofed the last time. I see the news ... | 243 |
fomc | 1,995 | He can just xerox last meeting's minutes! | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. A number of us observed last time--fewer of us today maybe because we are getting used to the idea--that this scenario is too good to be true. Almost everybody said that last time; very few people said it today. To be sure, it is five weeks closer to coming true than it was five weeks ago; but it's still a little ... | 1,432 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you. Shall we have coffee? | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Kohn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Questions for Don? Yes, President Melzer. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | Don, I would like to ask about these sweep accounts--a couple of different aspects. One stems from an inquiry that we had just this week from a bank in our District. My sense is that knowledge of this is spreading like wildfire through the banking industry, and I think banks are looking to the Fed to take some position... | 190 |
fomc | 1,995 | With regard to the first question, President Melzer, our Legal Division has written a number of letters to institutions that have inquired. The letters lay out the criteria for a sweep arrangement that conforms with our Regulation D. My understanding from Reserve Banks is that many of the inquiring banks already have i... | 449 |
fomc | 1,995 | Could it be a phenomenon that's big enough that we need to collect additional data to be able to interpret it correctly? | 23 |
fomc | 1,995 | We have given some thought to that as well. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | There is one other aspect in the interpretation of these data that we have to be careful about. While it is true that in a technical sense these accounts are changing, they are not perceived to be changing by the holders of the accounts. So, you can not make the argument, which some might make, that what in fact is eng... | 209 |
fomc | 1,995 | But they are held harmless from change. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Another part of the monetary base's behavior, of course, is that currency and bank reserves have been declining for a good while. Currency was growing very rapidly earlier, but now something is happening to it. Can you tell us what it is and whether it has any implications for anything? | 57 |
fomc | 1,995 | The currency flows to foreign countries have slowed substantially. We have a lot of data on the flows, but we can only guess at the total. The shipments data we get through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggest that for the last several months the amount of currency outside the country has been fairly steady, an... | 323 |
fomc | 1,995 | Further comments? If not, let me xerox my comments from the last meeting because, as Governor Blinder pointed out, a good thing that can happen to somebody who likes to talk about the business outlook is that things go the way that you expected them to go. It is not usually that way. Let me just point out, however, som... | 911 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I support both your conclusion and the reasons that you gave for it. | 18 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I, too, support your conclusion and the reasons that you gave for it. As I said earlier, I am drawn to the view that the economy is doing well both currently and prospectively. So in terms of prescriptions about policy, I look to the old physicians' oath of "do no harm" and look at "A", "B", and "C" as to where the har... | 231 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I agree with your proposal, Mr. Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Forrestal. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I hate to break the trend that seems to be developing here. Your argument is highly reasonable and I hesitate to disagree with you, but I will anyway. For many of the reasons that have been advanced, I think we ought to move and we ought to do so today. First of all, we all apparently agree that interest ... | 380 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I think we adopted a strategy earlier this year to wait and see how things play out. I may have preferred a different strategy, but I think that one we adopted is reasonable. Having selected this strategy, our tactics should be consistent with it, and in my view what you propose is consistent. I think we ... | 107 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support "B" symmetric. I think we indeed have to take into account the fiscal side, but I don't know what to take into account at this point. So, we ought to wait on that. Almost surely we will have to adjust policy at some point in coming months, but I don't sense any pressing need today. So, I think your basic argu... | 80 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Alan, I favor "B" symmetric as well. I view policy as being somewhat restrictive, and I think that is quite appropriate. First of all, I think it is a hedge against the possibility that we have not in fact capped inflation in this cycle; I hope we have, but I don't think we know that. Secondly and perhaps more importan... | 157 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I also favor "B" symmetric. | 8 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendation of "B" symmetric. The reasons for me, however, are that I think the projections on the growth of the economy are reasonably accurate, and as I said earlier I am not quite as optimistic about the inflation outlook as the Greenbook. I think we are in a good policy position. ... | 125 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for Bluebook alternative B. I think we have pretty solid evidence that the economy is growing at a faster rate than in the second quarter,and it looks as though the economy is going to continue to grow at an acceptable rate in the future as well. Although we have seen a modes... | 108 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support "B" symmetric. We should have some room to ease sometime this fall, but I think we should wait and see how things develop. Symmetry seems most appropriate to me, because I think it is clear that we probably would not move in the intermeeting period without a discussion. It seems to me that if we were going to... | 102 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I support your proposal for the reasons that you mentioned, but also for some of the reasons that Tom Melzer and Bob Parry noted. | 32 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, for many of the reasons that were mentioned by Presidents Melzer, Parry, and Hoenig. | 29 |
fomc | 1,995 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Just for your information, a little arithmetic exercise I did--if we have CPI increases that average two-tenths of a percent each month through December, the December-to-December rate would be 2.8 percent. I support your recommendation. | 50 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. One of the things that you pointed out in your comments at our August meeting still needs to be kept in mind. There is a risk--and different people can put different probabilities on it--of fiscal fizzle. There would be a lot of disappointment if nothing happens here, and we... | 77 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support your proposal for "B" symmetric, although I do find myself very much in sympathy with President Forrestal's analysis. I think he has made a case for moving today, but on balance it seems to me that the timing isn't urgent, and I am quite content to wait. | 58 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I also support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, although as Governor Yellen does I find myself in considerable sympathy with Bob Forrestal's argument. I think for the reasons Jerry Jordan, Ed Boehne, and others have stated, that this is a good time to wait. We don't quite know what is going to happen. I simply want t... | 135 |
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