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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,995 | I'm a sporty kind of guy! | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes, that's right. They are prone to things like that. That is what happens if you work at the Federal Reserve a long time! [Laughter] I had two things on my desk that I could easily pick up to compare. The Blue Chip forecasters--now, that is a consensus, of course, so their forecast is going to move less--changed thei... | 982 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I will just conclude the roundtable by echoing my agreement with a number of the points that already have surfaced in this discussion. Certainly, from my perspective the incoming data flow since our last meeting has contained surprises and the surprises do necessitate some rethinking of the underlying momentum in aggre... | 1,361 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you very much. I hope coffee is there. | 11 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Kohn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referencing, by the way, the last chart in the Financial Indicators package. If you don't have that with you, I think Carol Low has some extras. I would like to begin by discussing a new chart that appears at the end of that package and use that as a transition into a discussion of th... | 81 |
fomc | 1,995 | What happens to your Taylor chart if you extend it back before 1987? | 16 |
fomc | 1,995 | It doesn't look very good, but I don't know what "very good" means. That is, the Taylor rule does not track what actually happened, particularly over the previous seven or eight years in the Volcker era. Real funds rates were considerably higher than the Taylor chart would have suggested. | 58 |
fomc | 1,995 | How does it look before the 1980s? | 11 |
fomc | 1,995 | Perhaps Governor Yellen or Governor Blinder will remember better than I, but it seems to me that the federal funds rates were too low. That would confirm the notion that policy was easier than it should have been to achieve price stability. Do you remember? | 51 |
fomc | 1,995 | For the late 1960s and early 1970s I think that's right. | 18 |
fomc | 1,995 | It clearly doesn't fit the ups and downs in that period. | 12 |
fomc | 1,995 | No, it doesn't do a very good job. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | It was developed for you, Mr. Chairman, not for Paul Volcker! [Laughter] | 20 |
fomc | 1,995 | It looks the way it should! | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | John used to work for me in the private sector and maybe he read my mind better than I do. Questions for Don? | 25 |
fomc | 1,995 | John's choice of .5 for each coefficient is convenient pedagogically. Have you ever looked at estimating it? The two coefficients are quite different if you use estimates. As you can see, they produce much higher federal funds rates. I think in the most recent period the coefficient on the income variable is closer to ... | 76 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. I think it matters a lot over what period one is estimating it. Of course, I think John picked those in part out of some experience with large-scale modeling exercises, such as were carried out under the aegis of the Brookings Conference a couple of years ago. I think they also were picked because they looked reas... | 90 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Some of these estimates don't show the FOMC paying much attention to inflation. | 16 |
fomc | 1,995 | It's a closer representation of what the Fed actually did than just the selection of the .5 and .5. | 22 |
fomc | 1,995 | It's fitted to be a close representation of what we did. | 12 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | I just want to make the point with regard to the last argument that you mentioned, Don, in your prepared remarks. Since the gap is a forecast of inflation, you could read that as the expected change in inflation. | 44 |
fomc | 1,995 | Sure. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | I would not quite translate getting a zero on the second coefficient as an indication that the Committee did not care about inflation. One can reinterpret this as indicating that the only thing the Committee cares about is the level and rate of change of inflation. | 48 |
fomc | 1,995 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | It admits of that interpretation. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes, although I would have to think about that a little. The fact that everything goes to the output gap suggests that you are not particularly sensitive to what the inflation rate is when you close the gap. | 41 |
fomc | 1,995 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | You need something on that inflation target to provide you with a nominal anchor it seems to me. | 19 |
fomc | 1,995 | That's correct. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The other thing that's interesting is that the constant is about 2.7 as opposed to 2.0 and, of course, that's the real rate. | 32 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. I am not sure what John Judd did at the San Francisco Bank, but when we fit this the constant actually embodies both the equilibrium real rate and the Committee's inflation target. So, you have to make an assumption about one to separate out the other. | 54 |
fomc | 1,995 | Further questions for Don? If not, let me start off. Frankly, I didn't find the roundtable particularly surprising. It had pretty much the mixed flavor of what is going on in the country District by District. In retrospect, the strength in the third quarter was not all that surprising considering that the economy was c... | 1,647 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, first of all I would like to associate myself with the remarks that Governors Yellen and Blinder made with respect to the risks to the economy. Secondly, as I argued last time, it seems to me that interest rates are on the high side relative to inflation and to history. No matter how we think about the Gr... | 294 |
fomc | 1,995 | I said "five." | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Okay, five. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | That's almost enough! | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | But, again I would like to emphasize that I don't think it is critical in any sense that we move today. It certainly will not hurt to wait, but I believe we really need to think about the implications of maintaining the current policy. | 48 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, for the reasons that you outlined I agree with your analysis and I support your recommendation of "no change." Because I don't think we should be trying to guess which way the economy is going at this stage, I feel that a symmetric directive is quite appropriate. | 55 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I certainly agree with your recommendation for "no change." I am not agnostic on the symmetry; I think we should have a symmetric directive. The staff forecast and the revision in that forecast have made me more aware of and more sensitive to the upside risks in the outlook than perhaps I was before. I th... | 147 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I, too, agree with your overall policy position, Mr. Chairman. I also agree with the concept of keeping the directive symmetric. I do see the risks as being reasonably balanced, not so tilted to the down side as some believe. I agree that we should not have our hands tied by the current and prospective debt impasse on ... | 186 |
fomc | 1,995 | Something is going to have to give at some point. | 11 |
fomc | 1,995 | One would think so. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | What may happen is that we may begin to get a piecemeal deal. Instead of a full blown agreement it may come piece-by-piece-by-piece. | 32 |
fomc | 1,995 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Blinder. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I find myself very much of a mind with Bob Forrestal. If the third quarter had come in weak, say under 2 percent, I am sure I would be arguing strongly for a cut today based on four arguments: (1) the weakness in the economy; (2) the very good inflation performance; (3) the high, by almost any standard, r... | 528 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | I support the "no change" in "B." I think there is enough uncertainty in the economy, and it is on a moderate growth, low inflation kind of track. My sense, and it's entirely judgmental, is that the federal funds rate is on the high side of where we will want it going forward and that we will need to adjust it downward... | 115 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendation and I also would prefer symmetry. It seems to me that we have had a modest temporary increase in the real funds rate, but I think we ought to be willing to accept that. Our forecast and that in the Greenbook expect some pickup in inflation. That suggests that the increase ... | 111 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | I favor "B" symmetric at this meeting. I might say a word or two about what we might consider going forward from here. It seems to me that the degree of sogginess in the economy in the meeting five weeks from now will be one issue, but I think an equally important issue will be the path we want to put inflation on. One... | 182 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, our inflation forecast remains encouraging. We expect inflation over the period to be a little lower than that forecast in the Greenbook. But despite appearing benign at this point, I think the inflation picture requires careful and continuing monitoring. I certainly don't want the Committee to give up th... | 197 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Mr. Chairman, I can see the argument that the real fed funds rate may be a tad on the high side, but I have to say that so far it's hard to see where it has put much of damper on credit extensions or the stock market or the housing market. I can easily envision the possibility that events may unfold, conceivably fairly... | 159 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. On the Taylor rule, I think that even if we were to take it at face value, it implies downward pressure on inflation. It has an implied inflation target of 2 percent. Current monetary policy appears to be tight on that rule, but even if it were on the money it would be putting downward pressure... | 225 |
fomc | 1,995 | It lengthens. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | It lengthens! My teeth are going the other way! [Laughter] Well, as the tooth lengthens, increased risks begin to appear and we may already have detected some. I think the consumer is one of those risks. The international picture is another, be it instability in Japan and Europe, which I don't see as growing, or in Mex... | 179 |
fomc | 1,995 | Less than forever is better. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Less than forever is better, yes. I think today actually would be a very opportune time to move for exactly that reason. The public disenchantment with the budget process is high and going to get higher. That in itself is a shock. But I think the Fed would be sending a very appropriate signal that we are above the proc... | 89 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thanks, Alan. I favor alternative B. I believe it maintains a stance of policy that is somewhat restrictive. It is very difficult to define exactly how restrictive, but I think that's quite appropriate given the inflation outlook. I would say that looking forward we need to be particularly vigilant with respect to the ... | 284 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | "B" symmetric. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Ditto. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | The loquaciousness of this group is truly remarkable! Vice Chairman. | 15 |
fomc | 1,995 | We are now averaging down! | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | I will reverse the trend toward the lack of loquaciousness, whatever that is. I am somewhat surprised by the commentary today because I thought one of the things that we managed to do at the February 1994 meeting was to move away from fine-tuning the economy from one quarter to the next and toward an anticipatory monet... | 250 |
fomc | 1,995 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | We moved to the 6 percent level on the funds rate at the beginning of this year in the context of coming off a year of over 4 percent real growth. The final quarter of last year saw 5 percent real growth. Not only the central tendency of the inflation forecasts of this group for 1995 but also the forecasts of a large m... | 570 |
fomc | 1,995 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | I would associate myself with the analysis presented by Presidents Forrestal and McDonough and Governor Blinder, although, Mr. Chairman, at the end of the day I support your policy suggestion for "no change" at today's meeting. I continue to think, for reasons I have given before, that the real funds rate remains on th... | 271 |
fomc | 1,995 | As I read it, the modal value of this group's preferences is marginally "B" symmetric. That's where I sense it to be and I will propose that sort of directive for a vote. | 39 |
fomc | 1,995 | The draft of the operational paragraph is on page 16 of the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth... | 112 |
fomc | 1,995 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 1,995 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Blinder Yes President Hoenig Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Lindsey No President Melzer Yes President Minehan Yes President Moskow Yes Governor Phillips Yes Governor Yellen Yes | 44 |
fomc | 1,995 | The next meeting is December 19th and for those of you who can make it, we adjourn for lunch to honor our departing colleague. | 29 |
fomc | 1,995 | On behalf of all of us, I want to welcome Jack Guynn. | 15 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you very much. | 5 |
fomc | 1,995 | Jack is a veteran of the Fed who needs no introduction. To start off, would somebody like to move the minutes for the November 15 meeting? | 30 |
fomc | 1,995 | So move. | 3 |
fomc | 1,995 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. We need acceptance of the Report of Examination of the System Open Market Account. It has been distributed. Any questions? If not, would somebody like to move it? SEVERAL. So move. | 43 |
fomc | 1,995 | Without objection. I now call on Peter Fisher. | 10 |
fomc | 1,995 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would like to begin with the Mexican swap renewal before turning to the market reports. All of this is summarized on the one-page outline of my report that you have before you. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 49 |
fomc | 1,995 | Questions? Yes, Larry. | 6 |
fomc | 1,995 | Peter, would you refresh my memory as to why we increased the Mexican swap line from $1-1/2 to $3 billion last February 1? | 32 |
fomc | 1,995 | That was part of the package. | 7 |
fomc | 1,995 | Remember, there was a first phase whereby the Committee initially activated the existing $3 billion. Then, at the end of December 1994, there was an effort to deal with this problem in what I sometimes call the "old fashioned" way by getting banks together and so on. The Committee approved a "temporary" swap line of $1... | 110 |
fomc | 1,995 | But we are now getting out of the second program? | 11 |
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