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fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | My question actually was the same as Cathy's. It was about the GDP estimate. | 17 |
fomc | 1,996 | If I'm asked again, I might give a different answer! | 12 |
fomc | 1,996 | Well, actually I was going to put it slightly differently. How confident are you about the 1.9 percent growth rate? | 26 |
fomc | 1,996 | Not highly confident, given the statistical uncertainties that I indicated. We can imagine a number a little lower; we can imagine a number a little higher. You will recall that one of the fundamental factors in our thinking about the third quarter was that the labor input was quite ample, and the income side would sug... | 157 |
fomc | 1,996 | Any further questions for Mike? | 6 |
fomc | 1,996 | When you estimate a consumption function, do you divide the population into subsets? | 15 |
fomc | 1,996 | We have some notional views about proportions of the population that might be liquidity constrained or not liquidity constrained. So, embedded in some models is a perspective on that. But in preparing our forecast, we are not thinking of this on a disaggregated basis. | 52 |
fomc | 1,996 | We also try to take account of the distribu-tion of income. For example, there is a much higher propensity to consume out of transfer payments than there is out of labor income. | 37 |
fomc | 1,996 | Transfer income has been relatively strong, and to an extent that might lead one to have expected fairly firm consumption relative to aggregate income. | 26 |
fomc | 1,996 | It would seem that the potentially liquidity-constrained or debt-constrained population would be different from the people who have had stock market wealth gains. I would think that the key to sorting the two out is to try to disaggregate the trends. This is just a suggestion for future research. | 57 |
fomc | 1,996 | As you know, Governor Lindsey, there are not a lot of disaggregated time series data on consumption and saving. | 24 |
fomc | 1,996 | Any further questions? If not, who would like to start the Committee's discussion? | 17 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the Twelfth District economy expanded briskly in the first half of 1996, and it remained on track during the third quarter. Growth in total payroll employment slowed only slightly between the second and third quarters, from 3.6 to 3.3 percent at an annual rate. The District's performance this year is attr... | 504 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the Seventh District economy continues to expand at a moderate pace. It appears that price pressures may have eased somewhat. Overall construction activity remains strong, with recent slowing on the residential side being offset by a pickup in nonresidential activity, both public and private. Retail sales... | 856 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, New England remains on a solid growth path. Job growth on average has been slower than for the nation, but this is traditional for New England. The unemployment rates for the region as a whole and for each state remain below that for the nation. Employment in our region is still below its prerecession lev... | 771 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, activity at the regional level in our District, as elsewhere in the country, has decelerated pretty much across the board. In particular, residential construction recently has softened noticeably. Our most recent monthly surveys, though, do suggest a bit of a rebound lately in both the service and the man... | 827 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Economic activity in the Philadelphia District continues to expand, although the pace of growth has slackened some since the summer. Manufacturing overall reflects this trend. Some industries like rubber, plastics, chemicals, primary metals, and machinery are relatively stronger than textiles and furniture. Retailers a... | 310 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, many of us indicated at the last FOMC meeting that we were still waiting for the forecasted and hoped-for slowdown in the economy, but as of that time there were only a few scattered signs of a slowdown. I do not think that is the case any longer. Indeed, while the Sixth District does not exactly mirror t... | 806 |
fomc | 1,996 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | The expansion of the Eleventh District economy has slowed a little from its rapid pace earlier, but it is still fairly strong. The strengths certainly outweigh the weaknesses. On the up side, higher oil and gas prices are a positive for us at least, boosting activity in the energy industry in the Southwest. The Mexican... | 371 |
fomc | 1,996 | Did they think you were worth the minimum wage? [Laughter] | 14 |
fomc | 1,996 | Well, I am not getting any respect as a result of that offer! [Laughter] My own evidence of the tightness in the labor markets came just before the elections. For the first time in my life, I was polled about my political views, and the interviewer had trouble reading the questions to me. She never could pronounce the ... | 74 |
fomc | 1,996 | She was from Texas! | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I don't know where she was from. | 8 |
fomc | 1,996 | Massachusetts! [Laughter] | 7 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | As far as the District economy is concerned, there is little to report because the very healthy trends continue, as has been the case for a long time. Labor markets remain very tight, and I have no doubt that there are outright labor shortages that are restraining activity and expansion in some parts of the District. A... | 528 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the economy in the Kansas City District continues to grow moderately and consistently. Our directors and other business contacts generally report healthy economic conditions throughout the District. Retail trade appears to be holding up well across all seven District states. A recent survey of District ma... | 367 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thanks, Alan. Eighth District economic conditions continue to be very good. Sales increases, employment gains, and plant expansions are reported far more often than declines and closures. Firms recently announcing plans for new facilities include some in the poultry processing, paper products, and package delivery busi... | 770 |
fomc | 1,996 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, the economy of the Second District advanced at a slow but steady pace in recent weeks. Private payrolls rose at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in New York and 1 percent in New Jersey in September. Job growth kept pace with labor force growth, and unemployment rates therefore were essentially unchanged. Con... | 1,091 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. In the relatively long interval since our last meeting, gave us two reports from an area we had not heard much about. He said it appeared that the had gotten itself in a bit of a jam, but they were going to try to preserve as many jobs as they could. [Laughter] Listening to directors on a recent conference c... | 1,685 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | The data available since the last meeting confirmed that the economy has slowed to trend growth. They suggested that an unfavorable mix between final sales and inventory investment in the last quarter weighs heavily against a rebound to above-trend growth in the period immediately ahead. The data also indicated that th... | 981 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Once again we find ourselves in a very good situation and one that is remarkably uniform, as the stories around the table suggest. Tight labor markets, which have a potential for making a considerable contribution to the long-run efficiency of this economy, provide an opportunity for people of modest skills to increase... | 462 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since Thanksgiving is almost upon us, it seems appropriate to count our blessings, which are numerous. Economic performance with respect to both job creation and inflation has been excellent, and developments during the intermeeting period have enhanced the prospect that these favorable trends ... | 1,052 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. Governor Lindsey. | 6 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think this Committee is going to be facing some difficult issues in the years ahead. As if we don't have enough to worry about, I want to throw one other issue on the table and explain why I think it is more important than what we have been talking about. Mr. Chairman, you were the one who pu... | 1,386 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. Governor Phillips. | 6 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economy currently seems to be in a fairly wide holding pattern. The anticipated second-half slowdown is under way, although we do not know its extent. As always when we are trying to look forward, it is hard to know whether we are going to circle for a while longer, come in for another soft... | 833 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would like to say first of all that comments around the table at these meetings are always insightful and very interesting, but I have found that to be particularly true this morning and I greatly appreciate it. It also would appear that the discussion is moving along rather smartly today; we... | 360 |
fomc | 1,996 | There is a question at this time regarding the availability of coffee. | 13 |
fomc | 1,996 | We will adjourn for coffee, whether it is there or not. [Laughter] | 18 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Lindsey. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 13 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you very much. Any questions for David? | 10 |
fomc | 1,996 | I had a question all ready, David, about trying to square the Bluebook with the Greenbook, but your last remarks about the aggregates go in the same direction. That's because you antici-pate M2 growth of 4 percent for the year, and that means there will have been essentially no increase or a very small increase in M2 v... | 280 |
fomc | 1,996 | I will turn to Mike Prell for answers to some of your questions about the forecast. As I look at the nominal GDP numbers on a four-quarter basis starting this year, I don't see much change in the annual growth rates, which go from 4.7 percent this year to 4.5 percent in 1997 and 4.4 percent in 1998--actually a little d... | 114 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. [Laughter] Let me just say once again that our forecast is not based on the monetary aggregates. Rather, we derive what we would expect in terms of monetary aggregate growth through our assessment of likely patterns of money demand consistent with the interest rates and economic activity we are forecasting. ... | 226 |
fomc | 1,996 | Any further questions for David? If not, let me get started. As far as I can see, the outlook is very little changed from what it was at the time of the last meeting. The outlook may have shifted toward slightly slower growth, but only at the margin and within the expected range of statistical error. The data are diffi... | 2,965 |
fomc | 1,996 | I favor "B" asymmetric, Mr. Chairman. | 11 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, formulating policy under present circumstances obviously requires finding the right balance between likely future outcomes in the economy and recent developments. Labor market conditions, as you have indicated, appear to be on the tight side. Even if the natural rate of unemployment has decreased a bit, t... | 197 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, it is obvious from the discussion around the table today, the latest economic data, and I think particularly the behavior of bond rates that the risk of a pronounced near-term increase in inflation pressures has diminished. So, I no longer think that we need a 50 basis point increase in the federal funds ... | 340 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | When people use the word "inflation," I always translate that as something having to do with the purchasing power of the dollar. I can't get away from that notion. So, if people say inflation is going to be higher, I ask what is it that is going to cause the purchasing power of the dollar to erode at a faster rate in t... | 264 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support "B" asymmetric, but like President Jordan I do not feel nearly as "asymmetric" as I did at the time of the last meeting, and if we were not already there, I think moving to it would be questionable. But since we are and we have a winning formula, let's stick with it. | 65 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Central bankers worry a lot. That is a requirement for the job. But difficult as it is for us, I believe we ought to take good news when it comes. Therefore, I think staying where we are with an asymmetric directive is more than desirable at this point. | 54 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thanks, Alan. I do not want to talk about symmetry, so I am going to advocate a modest increase in the funds rate. I would be where Al Broaddus came out, a 25 basis point increase. My view is basically that CPI inflation has been trending up, that 3 percent inflation is too high, and that the risks are in the direction... | 213 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Things have changed, at least from my perspective, since the last meeting. I see a bit more balance in the factors bearing on the prospects for growth going forward. At the last meeting, I saw all the risks on the side of faster economic expansion, but I now see some counterbalancing developments. Factors that in my vi... | 318 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for an unchanged and asymmetrical directive. In fact, I think the asymmetrical directive that we have had in place, and would retain, sends a very important signal of this Committee's intention not to let inflation creep higher. I only hope that we are prepared to move if in ... | 76 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation for "B" asymmetric. I think it is important, echoing what some other people have said here, that we not lull ourselves into a sense of complacency. If we believe the Greenbook forecast, the core CPI, abstracting from improvements in methodology by the Bureau of Labor Statistic... | 151 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I commented earlier, recent developments have been favorable, and I believe there is something to Ed Boehne's observation that we ought to take the good news when we can get it. However, it still seems to me that the principal risk that we face is that of more inflation than we have forecast... | 245 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I continue to have two concerns. One is that the risks of inflation remain on the up side, as depicted in the projections that both the Greenbook and our staff have laid out. In that kind of atmosphere and related attitudes going forward, I am concerned about signs of a potential financial bubble. Having ... | 124 |
fomc | 1,996 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for no change, and I can vote for your recommendation to stay with asymmetry toward tightening. It would be embarrassing to go to a symmetric directive and then rapidly have to go back to asymmetry. On the other hand, if the economy weakens further and more sharply than we ex... | 110 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, and I also support the sentiments regarding symmetry expressed by Governor Rivlin and President McTeer. | 28 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr.Chairman, I support your recommendation of "B" asymmetric. We should not be changing course now, particularly when we are in the middle of getting more current inflation data. | 37 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I think that an asymmetric directive is warranted for all of the reasons enunciated in the Greenbook. I believe the inflation risk definitely remains asymmetric. I also share Governor Lindsey's and President Minehan's concern about euphoria in asset markets. On balance, thou... | 141 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I think it is important when we think about symmetry and asymmetry that we not focus too much on conditions in the current quarter or even the next quarter. When we have unemployment of 5.2 percent, we can tolerate a substantial short-term weakening of the economy and still ... | 182 |
fomc | 1,996 | Finally, Governor Meyer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for no change in policy. Indeed, given that the recent data suggest that the risks have become more balanced, I am more comfortable supporting a proposal of unchanged policy than I was at the last meeting. I still think the major risk is that inflation will begin to rise over... | 97 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. Would you read the directive which encompasses that? | 12 |
fomc | 1,996 | I will be reading from page 12 in the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful c... | 114 |
fomc | 1,996 | Call the roll. | 4 |
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