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fomc | 1,996 | I am not ready to do that. In a very important sense, and this is really the main point I want to make, I think we still have some distance to go before we can be comfortable that we have achieved price stability in the way we have defined it. The old Neal Resolution language, which we endorsed, defines price stability... | 415 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I am reassured that President Broaddus is standing firm in his commitment to price stability. I was getting worried about that! The Philadelphia region continues on a modest growth trend, with most sectors reflecting this trend. Attitudes are positive and the outlook is generally positive as well. Labor markets are gen... | 321 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Ninth District economy is still characterized by favorable business conditions almost throughout. Perhaps the most noteworthy thing to report relates to a recent meeting that we had with about 30 business leaders. The most striking thing they had to report is something I have commented on h... | 362 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thanks, Alan. The Eighth District economy continues to grow at a steady pace. District retailers report that September and October sales were up about 4 percent from a year earlier, and most are expecting a strong holiday season. Sales the weekend after Thanksgiving were especially robust. Despite a somewhat lackluster... | 759 |
fomc | 1,996 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, economic conditions in the Second District have been mixed, but on balance they have been positive since our last meeting. Private-sector job growth, which had been above trend earlier this year, has slowed, but unemployment rates are still rather good. The 5.9 percent rate in New York State is holding at... | 377 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Rivlin. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I do not know whether we have been smart or lucky, but we do seem to be blessed with a nearly ideal economy that is growing at a rate very close to potential. I have no reason to quarrel with the Greenbook forecast. Certainly, there is reason for concern about future inflation, given the tight labor markets and the beg... | 733 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. I had a joint meeting of all three of our boards of directors last week and it included a go-around of the directors. The most commonly used word to describe their business activity was "flat"--flat at currently high levels of activity with expectations that activity in 1997 will be about the same overall as... | 1,558 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I have very little to add this morning, and I will be very brief. As we know, this was a very short intermeeting interval, and it seems to me that the incoming data have had very little significance for policy in the short run. So, I believe that on balance the economic situation very much calls for the s... | 205 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economic expansion still seems to be holding in a sustainable zone. We have further confirmation of the slowdown in the third quarter that we were anticipating. The fourth-quarter results have been mixed but seem to point to a marginally stronger economy as we reach the year-end. The questi... | 850 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | The limited amount of data that we now have available since the last meeting does not alter the picture of the economy, and that picture is a remarkably good one. Economic growth has now slowed to trend. I read core measures of inflation as stable to still declining. The unemployment rate remains locked in a low but na... | 991 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think that in spite of your best efforts, 1997 is going to be a very good year for irrational exuberance. [Laughter] I take the Greenbook as Exhibit One. In mid-1993 I got into a little trouble because the wire services quoted a quip I made at the beginning of a speech to the effect that mone... | 698 |
fomc | 1,996 | His 10 years did not include the means testing. | 11 |
fomc | 1,996 | Did not include means testing--so maybe its inclusion will get us to 11 or 12 years, but it still will not be that far into the future. In addition, I think both OMB and CBO have become a little too optimistic with regard to tax receipts. They discovered that the increased tax receipts were not from capital gains, whic... | 874 |
fomc | 1,996 | I will make another speech. [Laughter] | 10 |
fomc | 1,996 | Don't wait a whole year. | 6 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will try to be brief this morning because my view is little changed from last time. The limited new data that are available since our last meeting support the staff's prediction that the lull in consumer spending over the summer was likely a temporary aberration and not the onset of any perio... | 727 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you all. We can go to coffee now. | 11 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Kohn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.] | 13 |
fomc | 1,996 | Questions for Don? I guess you overwhelmed everybody. | 10 |
fomc | 1,996 | I was wondering if applause is in order. | 9 |
fomc | 1,996 | The Vice Chairman is suggesting applause but don't. [Laughter] If there are no questions, let me get started on policy and the directive. As many of you have mentioned, no really significant changes have occurred since the last meeting. The numbers go up and down, all sorts of adjustments take place, and one can easily... | 233 |
fomc | 1,996 | I forgot that. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | --so there are more cars per square minute [laughter] than we normally would expect. Nonetheless, as Mike Prell points out, the weekly seasonally adjusted data on chain store sales do show some significant strength. I presume that our X-ll seasonal adjustment program is not mesmerized by the shorter selling season phen... | 2,466 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, for all the reasons you suggested, I believe that maintaining official interest rates at their present levels is appropriate and therefore "B" is appropriate. I agree that it is very likely that our next move will be up and that asymmetry should be used to indicate that there is a strong consensus among C... | 122 |
fomc | 1,996 | I accept your definition of asymmetry. Governor Rivlin. | 12 |
fomc | 1,996 | I agree and especially with the Vice Chair's formulation of it. I do not see any reason for a move at the moment. We are doing fine, but the risks are clearly on the up side, though they may be less so than we thought when we launched into the asymmetric pattern. They are not enough less to convince me that we should r... | 91 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, our forecast suggests that it may be necessary sometime next year to tighten the stance of policy to impart some downward momentum to the underlying rate of inflation. However, there would seem to be little or no reason to take action now. At our Bank, we consult two monetary policy rules as a starting po... | 198 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation for "B" asymmetric. I think the risks are clearly on the up side. | 25 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, as I said earlier I think the risks are more balanced now. Because of that I do not believe the need to tighten our short-term policy stance is as urgent as it was earlier and I would accept your recommendation, although if you had recommended a slight snugging, my opposition would have been less than hea... | 428 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I am in full agreement with your recommendation for "B" asymmetric. I also believe that Vice Chairman McDonough's definition of the various aspects of symmetry is quite in line with mine. I think that our indicating symmetry or asymmetry in our directive really does communicate the direction to our thinki... | 112 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, given that I also agree that the risks are on the up side, I support your recommendation. | 23 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I, too, support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, and like Cathy Minehan I would associate myself with the understanding of asymmetry that Vice Chairman McDonough enunciated. | 37 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Boehne. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Melzer. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thanks, Alan. This is for Ed Boehne and others. I do not want them to get too nervous about Al Broaddus and me both "selling out" on an earlier view. CPI inflation is up 1/2 percentage point this year over last year, and I think the risks are that it could rise further. Personally, as I view the incoming information an... | 483 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Phillips. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I also support "B" asymmetric in view of the renewed strength of the economy in the current quarter. It seems to me that the balance of risks has shifted to the up side, implying the necessity of vigilance on inflation developments. | 46 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation. I see policy as appropriately positioned now and agree with President Parry that that becomes apparent from the observation of rules or from the Greenbook forecast. But to my mind the risks are asymmetric. I appreciate the clarification of the meaning of that term, and with that clarifica... | 69 |
fomc | 1,996 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I agree with the recommendation to leave the funds rate unchanged at this meeting, but I am troubled by this issue of the meaning of asymmetry, not only among ourselves but also what we communicate to others. In one sense, a central bank should always be asymmetric toward firming with regard to the issue of inflation. ... | 255 |
fomc | 1,996 | Governor Lindsey. | 3 |
fomc | 1,996 | I support your recommendation. I was just thinking about what Jerry Jordan said. I like the line--I am sorry I forgot who said it--that nervous reactiveness may be the best we can hope for. When we look at the loss function and the amount of uncertainty out there, I think prompt action when we first get a signal in thi... | 148 |
fomc | 1,996 | Finally, Governor Meyer. | 5 |
fomc | 1,996 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. As the risks have become more balanced over the last few months, it has clearly become a closer call as to whether the directive should be symmetric or asymmetric. Nevertheless, the major risk seems to be a rise in the inflation rate and I therefore concur with that asymmetr... | 149 |
fomc | 1,996 | Thank you. The consensus appears to be "B" asymmetric. Would you read the directive that would accomplish that? | 23 |
fomc | 1,996 | It is on page 13 of the Bluebook: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks to maintain the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration t... | 109 |
fomc | 1,996 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 1,996 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes President Boehne Yes President Jordan Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Lindsey Yes President McTeer Yes Governor Meyer Yes Governor Phillips Yes Governor Rivlin Yes President Stern Yes Governor Yellen Yes | 47 |
fomc | 1,996 | The next meeting is February 4 and 5, which is a Humphrey-Hawkins meeting. | 21 |
fomc | 1,997 | I would like to welcome Craig Hakkio from the Kansas City Bank, who is attending his first meeting. He is seated here somewhere. | 28 |
fomc | 1,997 | About where Tom Davis used to sit. | 8 |
fomc | 1,997 | I turn to Governor Rivlin to initiate our proceedings. | 11 |
fomc | 1,997 | It is my pleasant duty to open the meeting and to ask if there are nominations for Chair of the FOMC. Governor Kelley. | 27 |
fomc | 1,997 | I will be happy to nominate Chairman Greenspan for that role. | 13 |
fomc | 1,997 | Is there a second? | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 1,997 | We have a second. All in favor? SEVERAL. Aye. | 16 |
fomc | 1,997 | Opposed? Mr. Chairman, you have won! | 11 |
fomc | 1,997 | Surprise, surprise! | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | I thought I had voted no. | 7 |
fomc | 1,997 | Shall I proceed? | 5 |
fomc | 1,997 | Yes, would you move the other nomination? | 9 |
fomc | 1,997 | Is there a nomination for Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee? | 14 |
fomc | 1,997 | I nominate President McDonough of the New York Fed. | 12 |
fomc | 1,997 | President McDonough. Now there is an original idea! [Laughter] | 16 |
fomc | 1,997 | I hesitatingly second the motion. [Laughter] | 12 |
fomc | 1,997 | All in favor? SEVERAL. Aye. | 11 |
fomc | 1,997 | All opposed? The ayes have it. Congratulations, Mr. McDonough. Back to you, Mr. Chairman. | 25 |
fomc | 1,997 | I congratulate the Vice Chairman. The next item is to elect the staff officers, and Norm has a list. | 22 |
fomc | 1,997 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Secretary and Economist, Donald Kohn Deputy Secretary, Normand Bernard Assistant Secretaries: Joseph Coyne and Gary Gillum General Counsel, Virgil Mattingly Deputy General Counsel, Thomas Baxter Economists: Michael Prell and Edwin Truman Associate Economists from the Board of Governors: David L... | 149 |
fomc | 1,997 | Are there any objections to the list? If not, I will assume that it has been moved, seconded, and voted in the affirmative. The next item of business is the selection of a Federal Reserve Bank to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account. Are there nominations? If not, I will nominate the Federal Reserve ... | 74 |
fomc | 1,997 | I second the motion. [Laughter] | 9 |
fomc | 1,997 | I don't know whether you have standing, but I will accept your second in any event. We have an official second, thank you. Without objection. We have a significant and controversial issue next, the selection of the Manager of the System Open Market Account. The incumbent, Peter Fisher, has been nothing short of superb,... | 99 |
fomc | 1,997 | I nominate Peter. | 4 |
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