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fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, economic growth in the West has undergone a notable retrenchment this year from what had been a very rapid expansion. However, revised data now put Twelfth District job growth for last year at 3-1/2 percent, making it the fifth consecutive year of growth at 3-plus percent. But this year, tangible signs of... | 439 |
fomc | 2,001 | That's seven zero? | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes, 70. Data on the recent performance of the national economy have been mixed. Job growth, for instance, has held up better than we had expected. On the other hand, the industrial sector is contracting sharply. Overall, the recent data have been roughly offsetting, resulting in no change in our forecast that the econ... | 401 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The pace of economic activity in New England is slowing, but by a number of measures it continues to grow and to grow at a faster rate than in the rest of the nation. Nonetheless, most contacts indicate a sense of concern about the future. Consumer and business confidence is off, and many conta... | 1,428 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Sometimes it's hard to know whether an anecdotal report was intended to be good news or bad news. One of our directors recently reported that he had gone to a boat show and was told that they had sold only nine personal watercraft or jet skis this year compared to over a hundred last year. I sa... | 1,362 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Incoming data suggest that the slowdown in economic growth is continuing in our region and in the nation. Neither the District nor the nation appears to be slipping into recession, however, and there are signs that conditions have improved since the turn of the year. Still, in my opinion the ri... | 964 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Over the past few weeks I've had more unsolicited calls from concerned business leaders than ever before in my six-and-one-half years in this job. That's probably because the Seventh District economy is undergoing a somewhat more noticeable slowdown than the national economy, in large part due ... | 991 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | At our last meeting I said that the Beige Book was the most negative I had seen--most negative in the sense of the most rapid deterioration of conditions--in both the summary of national developments and the report on the Eleventh District. I understand that it reflected conditions in early January. The current Beige B... | 728 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Sifting through the variety of anecdotal reports we've been hearing on the region, it appears that our District economy has performed about in line with what the national statistics have indicated for the country, namely that growth has stabilized at a low rate. If we look at the District by re... | 408 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The slower pace of economic growth in the Southeast persists, but one gets the sense that things may be bottoming out. This overall perspective masks some very different stories by sector as well as substantial differences in the economies of our largest and strongest states, Florida and Georgi... | 1,508 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, our District economy would have to be described as soft overall but conditions are still mixed, as I have been reporting for the last several meetings. Manufacturing activity in our traditional old-economy industries like textiles and furniture and paper continues to weaken. We hear many reports of layoff... | 1,165 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Tenth District economy remains sluggish but some signs of stability are beginning to appear. Manufacturing activity continues to decline and auto sales in most of our areas remain relatively weak, although some recent pickup has been noted. Incoming data on other sectors have had a more pos... | 1,283 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Conditions around the Eighth District are very similar to those described by others who have already commented. The situation is mixed, but on the whole activity is flat to okay. The mood is decidedly worse than the reality, but I don't detect a huge amount of concern and fear. The way I would ... | 1,350 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A number of you have made the point that the picture is mixed. I'm reminded of a statement that an old-time baseball manager, Paul Richards, once made when his team was in the middle of a losing streak. He said, "No team is as good as it looks when it's winning or as bad as it looks when it's l... | 1,125 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think we better break for coffee or else it will get very cold. | 15 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The baseline in the Greenbook attempts to paint what I would describe as a middle-of-the-road outlook for the economy, with some signs--maybe premature--that the bottom has been reached. Indeed, as I've heard others around the table say and as I look at the data myself, it's clear that one coul... | 1,221 |
fomc | 2,001 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District economy is holding up rather well, with the labor markets quite strong and continued strength in housing. Despite much gloom on Wall Street, which I will discuss later, employment levels in New York City are holding up extremely well. That may relate to the fact that restaur... | 1,134 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There's very little that I can add at this point about the economy, so I'll be brief. But let me try to summarize the situation. It was 100 percent predictable well in advance of the economic slowdown that going through such a period would be painful. We are now in a slowdown and it is painful.... | 408 |
fomc | 2,001 | Tell me whether you're using your five iron or your six iron! | 13 |
fomc | 2,001 | Or is he using his driver? [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Three highly interrelated developments over the intermeeting period have, in my view, strengthened the case for further easing. The first relates to the more powerful negative wealth effect due to the slide in equity prices, the further decline in consumer confidence, the possibility of a more serious shakeout or retre... | 1,206 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you all. Mr. Kohn. | 9 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Incoming data, while mixed, have indicated that the economy has been growing at best at a sluggish pace. Moreover, a number of signs suggest weakness ahead; downward revisions to sales and earnings forecasts of many firms point to continued restraint on investment spending, and the associated d... | 1,777 |
fomc | 2,001 | Questions for Don? Let me follow on then. The one statistic that has not been mentioned today, which in fact I find the most worrisome on the down side, is the persistent downward revisions in weekly forecasts of S&P 500 earnings per share for the year 2001. Those forecasts have been reduced for the first three quarter... | 2,813 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I very enthusiastically support your recommendation, including all the nuances. When I was on my most recent long airplane ride, which was last Wednesday, I thought to myself that what we had to do at this meeting was to be decisive and flexible at the same time. That would require creating a certain amou... | 277 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me comment briefly about each of the choices along the spectrum of alternatives that are most plausible here. Twenty-five basis points is the most conservative possibility. With inflation quiescent and quite likely to stay so for some time, I just don't see any necessity to keep such a tigh... | 309 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I can support your recommendation, although it is not my first choice. And because it may prove relevant for some future meeting, I'd like to explain briefly a different view. Let me call option X a 50 basis point cut with the balance of risks toward weakness. I'll call option Y, my preference, a 75 basis... | 410 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig, | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support your proposal. As I said earlier, I see enough weakness and risk in the economy looking forward beyond this quarter to justify a 50 basis point cut. And I am relieved that we are not doing more than that because in my view that would introduce some of the problems you noted. It most definitely w... | 172 |
fomc | 2,001 | In the draft language, the only reference to the market relates to equity wealth effects. At this stage there is no reference to stock prices. | 28 |
fomc | 2,001 | Okay, thank you very much. | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | I agree with your proposition, Mr. Chairman. I think a 50 basis point decrease in the fed funds rate is appropriate at this time. And since I believe the risks are still on the down side, I favor retaining the balance of risks language in the direction of weakness, as you indicated. I, too, have become uncomfortable wi... | 139 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support a 50 basis point cut in the funds rate and I also support a statement that the risks remain weighted toward economic weakness. I, too, share your concern about a 75 basis point cut at this time. To me the recent data on employment and spending do not suggest that things are as bad as the stock m... | 156 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation. I'm coming at this largely in the way Ned Gramlich described earlier. It seems to me that the real federal funds rate should be moving lower, and a 50 basis point cut seems appropriate. I don't know if that will turn out to be sufficient but I do think it will pro... | 173 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I can endorse your recommendation. I'd like to speak to each of its three parts. First, a cut of 50 basis points does seem to me to be appropriately targeted at the real economy. Any more would appear to be targeted inappropriately at the stock market--and I endorse your general concept of why ... | 399 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. All I can say is "Wow!" Your summary was a real tour de force, especially with respect to the stock market and the undesirability of fulfilling ever-greater market expectations. I agree with the 50 basis points, I agree with the asymmetry, and I share your concern about a move of 75 basis point... | 299 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I come out exactly where President Minehan did. I certainly support the 50 basis points move. I thought the reasons you gave at the end of your statement really iced the case, although I have to confess that I wasn't sure for awhile exactly where you were going to come out. But cutting the funds rate as y... | 216 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I can support your recommendation, particularly the first part of it. I must confess to being even more thrown off than President Broaddus was in thinking that you were taking us someplace very different than you did. I spent the first three-quarters of your presentation making frantic notes about how to ... | 207 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with the easing move today of 50 basis points, but I'm troubled by two things. One, when we use the word "weakness," we may think slower growth but others hear decline. And I think that's a troubling message. If what is heard out there is that we expect further declines in economic acti... | 381 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, as one of the golfers in this group, I thought the analogy Mike Kelley gave before was excellent. To continue it, I guess I would describe your proposal as hitting a shot to the green. I'm not sure where it landed but we are carrying several clubs with us and one of them surely is a sand wedge. | 67 |
fomc | 2,001 | On the green? [Laughter] | 8 |
fomc | 2,001 | I meant toward the green, since that's the way I usually play golf! [Laughter] But, seriously, I thought your statement was excellent. I do think we need to ease. I believe we should be measured in our actions, as I said in my comments and as Cathy Minehan mentioned as well. In my view, 50 basis points should be enough... | 206 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My position is very similar to that of Presidents Minehan, Broaddus, and Guynn, a little stronger than President Moskow's. I support your recommendation for a 50 basis point decline in the target funds rate today, along with a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness.... | 398 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. For a while now I've been stuck on the same question that I think the meeting is stuck on. I have felt that from the basics what I'd like to do at this meeting is to move the funds target down 50 basis points and retain the bias, but if there were some way to do a little more, I felt that was a... | 325 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | I support your recommendation and I hope we will be flexible and willing to have an intermeeting discussion if the data suggest the need for that. But I share the reservations of those who would rather leave the reference to that possibility out of the language of our press statement. | 53 |
fomc | 2,001 | Let me suggest that we take a look at the draft language before we vote, because the language I've chosen does not in my judgment raise precedential issues. This is a very rare occasion. If indeed it got to the point where this kind of wording became a new, separate part of the decision we had to make on an ongoing bas... | 220 |
fomc | 2,001 | Excuse me. Could I ask a question of Don? Do you happen to have the language of the similar sentence in December? People are going to compare the two. | 34 |
fomc | 2,001 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | This is just a little stronger it seems to me because we didn't say "especially" monitor, we said monitor "closely." | 26 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, I purposely didn't want to use exactly the same language for precisely that reason. | 17 |
fomc | 2,001 | Was adding "especially" the whole difference? | 9 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes. What was the language-- | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | I don't think I have the-- | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | I have the language we used in December if nobody else does. | 13 |
fomc | 2,001 | Why don't you read it? | 6 |
fomc | 2,001 | The discussion will all be on what "especially" means. | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | Would you like me to read it, Mr. Chairman? | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | The comparable sentence in the press release of December 19th read: "The Committee will continue to monitor closely the evolving economic situation." | 27 |
fomc | 2,001 | At the time we put that sentence in our press statement, I know I did not feel that it committed us to--or any way was a formal nuance regarding--an intermeeting move. But the fact is that the sentence exists and we did take an intermeeting action. So it seems to me that the pairing of the two is a lot more powerful no... | 117 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think the key question is the one the Chairman himself raised: Is this precedential? Does it say that we have to do something in the future? I think the answer to that is no. We are essentially looking at what the market reaction is likely to be. My view is that we need this in our statement in order to show that we ... | 119 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | When I spoke earlier, I believe I said this is a judgment call. Clearly, the tone of this discussion suggests that there are judgments on either side. If we look at this language in the context of the whole paragraph, I think it gives us the right kind of flexibility without over-committing us. As I said before, I woul... | 394 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, my preference would be to leave out that sentence for several reasons. First of all, we are never relaxed. Quite frankly, I've never relaxed and I don't think anybody else around the table has ever relaxed about the economic situation. We follow developments very closely. If the economic situation does ev... | 172 |
fomc | 2,001 | But it is up to us to act or not act. | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | Oh, I understand that. But I'm talking about my forecast of how the market will read this. | 20 |
fomc | 2,001 | I don't disagree with you actually, and I'm not sure that I view that as a bad outcome because in effect what we will be telling the market is that we don't agree with it. In other words, we'll get a lot of those views initially and when we don't act, things will calm down. The other day, for example, I had to make a s... | 222 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, when I was listening to your comments, I thought you were going to put words in the statement that said we might move in the intermeeting period. In reading this draft, I'm quite relieved that you are not doing that. So, I can live with this sentence. I would take out "especially" if I had my choice. SEVE... | 77 |
fomc | 2,001 | I can live with this sentence because if I can't live with this sentence, I can't live with the sentence that precedes it either. I don't think it says that we necessarily are going to move in the intermeeting period. I would take out the word "especially" so it is more parallel to our statement in December and not les... | 77 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
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