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fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I, too, was struck by the same distinction that Don mentioned earlier between the real economy as portrayed in the current Greenbook forecast and the real economy as viewed by the financial markets. The financial discussion in the staff briefing material we received last night was quite interes... | 338 |
fomc | 2,001 | It could also be, as the economy has eroded so much, that the prospect of getting back to a more moderate growth path starts to look more reasonable, just because one would expect some rebound given how far production has already fallen. It's certainly possible that we're looking in the rear-view mirror--looking at dev... | 419 |
fomc | 2,001 | What would the productivity numbers in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of last year look like if the volatile pattern in self-employed hours had been smoothed? | 31 |
fomc | 2,001 | Roughly they would be a little better than a percentage point in each quarter. And we are expecting a 3 percent increase in the second quarter. | 31 |
fomc | 2,001 | What would that be with a similar smoothing? | 9 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think that would be about 2 percent instead of 3 percent. So it would be a smoother pattern; obviously the data series was affected significantly by the very sharp swings in the reported hours of self-employed workers. Nevertheless, looking at the past four quarters, we've had 2-3/4 percent growth in nonfarm producti... | 105 |
fomc | 2,001 | Any further questions for our colleagues? If not, who would like to start the Committee discussion? President Jordan. | 22 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, let me relay a comment by one of the bankers in our District who operates in quite a few states in the Great Lakes region. He said that a year ago the bad news was that there was little e-commerce in the region. This year the good news is that there is very little e-commerce in the regio... | 1,528 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have had an opportunity in the last several days to talk with different groups, including our economic advisory council and our board of directors, and I would say that the view is still that economic growth in our District remains sluggish. Businesses have been putting some of their capital ... | 1,189 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the Seventh District remains sluggish. Many reports are quite gloomy. Several contacts even told me that conditions in their sectors were as bad as they had ever seen. And these weren't the 25-year-olds at dot-com firms but people with 30 to 40 years of industry experience.... | 1,121 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, the Twelfth District economy has slowed considerably in recent months. District payroll employment expanded at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first quarter, a significant change from the near 3 percent pace reported in the fourth quarter. Slower employment growth has boosted unemployment rat... | 809 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Our District continues to present the mixed picture I've reported at recent meetings, though it may be a little less mixed this time than earlier. There are some positive developments. Sales of nondurable goods and services were actually up a bit in April; they increased at a somewhat more rapi... | 1,184 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As best we can judge, economic activity in our Southeast region has not changed materially since our March meeting. A general sense of caution and uneasiness about the yet-to-be-seen signs of improvement probably best characterizes the sentiment about the economy. Overall growth in the region c... | 1,263 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There has been little change in the outlook for our regional economy since March. Economic activity continues to edge up overall and manufacturing activity is still declining. Our business outlook survey for May, which will be released this Thursday, shows little change from April, with the dif... | 1,068 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The latest evidence and anecdotal information suggest that the District's economy is not terribly different from what we've been hearing for some time, nor does it differ from the situation the national statistics have depicted. The picture is rather mixed. The manufacturing sector continues to... | 487 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think the overall message from the Eighth District is flat, flat, flat. Housing remains on the strong side and manufacturing on the weak side --no dramatic changes in either direction. Bank loan demand, depending on which banker one talks to, is either up a little or down a little. The banker... | 1,498 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you. Coffee is available and I think it would be reasonable to recess at this stage. | 19 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I've been saying for some time that New England was not experiencing the depth of the national slowdown. This was occurring, I thought, for a variety of reasons: industry mix, the extreme tightness of regional labor markets, and even what turns out to be a powerful impact of a great ski season ... | 1,780 |
fomc | 2,001 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District's economy continues to perform rather well, especially in relation to the rest of the nation. It has expanded since the last report, though its growth has slowed somewhat. Inflation remains subdued and price pressures actually appear to have eased somewhat. Job growth tapere... | 1,972 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | When I look across the Eleventh District economy for signs that the economy is picking up, I'm hard pressed to find any. The bulk of the statistics and anecdotes suggest an economy whose growth rate is barely perceptible and not changing. To be sure, there are pockets of strength, notably housing and energy. But the re... | 721 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In reviewing the incoming data and market conditions in preparation for this meeting I, like others, was struck by the apparent disconnect between the marketplace and economists. Since our March meeting, with some zigzagging, equity indices--which are thought to lead the real economy--have in f... | 1,042 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Earlier in the year, there were various indications that the economy could have been on a sharp downward slide. By this time, we're probably past the time of greatest risk, but the economy is still in a very fragile state. The high-tech sector is in a state of over-capacity, with PC sales down,... | 1,073 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Are we beyond the crisis stage of our deep slowdown and are we now entering a firming and turning period? Much of the market's recent action and sentiment indicates that that is likely the case. And certainly if increasing difficulty in arriving at a firm conviction about monetary policy is sym... | 548 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My views of the outlook are very consistent with both the qualitative story and the general details of the Greenbook forecast. Relative to that forecast, the risks in my view have become more balanced. I also share the view that several others have expressed today--that given that forecast, we'... | 767 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you. Don Kohn. | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. By some measures, the Committee's cumulative easing of 200 basis points this year has already made monetary policy accommodative. The Bluebook highlighted one way to calibrate that judgment--the level of the real federal funds rate relative to an estimate of its equilibrium value. The real fund... | 1,784 |
fomc | 2,001 | Questions for Don? If not, let me get started. As best we can judge, the decline in industrial production--modest though it was in April--occurred in the context of a significant rate of inventory liquidation in the non-high-tech area of the economy. Indeed, rough estimates suggest that the rate of liquidation in that ... | 2,762 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I endorse fully the entire package, including your idea that sometime between now and the next meeting we probably should begin to shape the record. And I would suggest, since you already plan to do that on the 24th of this month, that we all remain very silent until then. | 61 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendation generally. If I may, let me make a few additional comments to indicate the way I've been thinking about this. As I said earlier when I made my economic statement, I believe it's important to put what we do in a context. And the context that I'm thinking of is the amount of... | 933 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | I agree with both of your recommendations, Mr. Chairman. But I would like to associate myself very closely with everything that President Broaddus just said. I could have supported a move of 50 basis points with a balanced risk statement; I could have supported 25 basis points with a statement that the risks continue t... | 180 |
fomc | 2,001 | I was actually suggesting that we send it in June. | 11 |
fomc | 2,001 | Instead of now? | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, I think Al Broaddus has a point, and it may be worthwhile in the statement we put out today to say something about the limits on how far we can go in one direction. | 40 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I believe that it would be prudent to cut the rate further and I support your proposed reduction of 50 basis points. For this meeting I also prefer to retain a balance of risks statement weighted toward economic weakness. However, I think we are getting close to the point where we should seriously re-exam... | 70 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation for a 50 basis point cut and an asymmetric directive toward economic weakness. I do think it's important that we start getting the word out, as suggested in the comments by Al Broaddus and Cathy Minehan. Let me make several points. One is that we should start indic... | 184 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | I concur with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. However, given my view of the economic outlook, I think it would be useful for us to try to telegraph some message that indicates we're getting close to the end of this process. If I had my druthers, I'd probably go 25 basis points today with the tilt toward economic wea... | 131 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I'd like to amplify a couple aspects of my position. With regard to the April 18th rate cut, about which I expressed reservations, I haven't changed my view on that. But that rate cut is a fact. To me that Committee action indicated several things. First of all, it suggested... | 625 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I share many of the general sentiments that Presidents Broaddus and Minehan expressed. In fact, I think I could go a bit further and make a reasonable case for why we ought to pause today. But given the tide, I won't belabor that issue. Nevertheless, a key issue for me is the lag question. It's... | 178 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation. I would add that I am concerned that too overt a comment today about the possible ending of this easing process might well be a bit premature for two reasons. First, it would be premature if some of these downside probabilities that we're concerned about materiali... | 131 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I can support your recommendation for a 50 basis point easing today and a statement that the risks remain unbalanced toward economic weakness. On the other hand, I could also have joined Presidents Minehan and Broaddus in supporting a case for slowing the pace of easing today and moving only 25... | 162 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with your recommendation. I'm fortunate in my speaking order because I can agree with some of what the four people who spoke prior to me had to say. First, I think President Poole is absolutely right to remind us that the language on the balance of risks has to do with the economy and t... | 389 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | As Mark Anthony said when he burst into Cleopatra's bedroom, I'm not here to make a speech. So I agree with both of your recommendations. | 29 |
fomc | 2,001 | Careful, sir! Governor Gramlich. | 9 |
fomc | 2,001 | Bob, that's a tough act to follow! [Laughter] I was planning to make a speech. | 21 |
fomc | 2,001 | You're not going to let my comment discourage you, though! | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | First, I support both of your recommendations, Mr. Chairman. At the same time, I agree with many others around the table that we can't continue to ease monetary policy in such large steps. I see the wall looming out there. I don't see it quite yet, as I said earlier, but it's out there and we should be aware of it. The... | 248 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I'm most comfortable with the comments of Al, Cathy, Tony, and Gary. I actually would prefer to come out of today's meeting with some clear signal that we have slowed the pace of easing--not that we've stopped easing but that we've slowed the pace. I did not read the announcement of our intermeeting actio... | 229 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I think we should pull back on the throttle today. Over the past four and one-half months we've moved policy in a very aggressive way to an easier position. In my view an additional 50 basis point cut will move us to an overly accommodative position. We've added significant liquidity to the market. Now we... | 263 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you. Not only do I not think that disappointing the market--not doing what is already built into the market--is a bad thing, I think it's inevitable. We stopped easing in 1998 when market participants were saying we would move the funds rate down to 3 percent. We didn't. We stopped tightening last spring when the... | 227 |
fomc | 2,001 | Okay. The seeming majority is for a cut of 50 basis points and a statement that the risks are asymmetric toward economic weakness. Could you read the appropriate statement? | 33 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes, Mr. Chairman. I will be reading from page 14 of the Bluebook. The directive wording is: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future see... | 138 |
fomc | 2,001 | Call the roll, please. | 6 |
fomc | 2,001 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig No Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Minehan Yes President Moskow Yes President Poole Yes | 40 |
fomc | 2,001 | I now suggest that the Federal Reserve Board retire to my office, while we recess this meeting temporarily, and vote on the requests from the various Banks. | 30 |
fomc | 2,001 | The Board voted unanimously to approve the requests from several Reserve Banks for a reduction of 1/2 percentage point in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. We now have a draft statement in front of us and I would appreciate everyone reading it and giving your reactions after you've had a chance to review it. It is es... | 84 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think this statement as drafted is very likely to build into the yield curve another 50 basis point move at our next meeting. Our statement doesn't have to say anything about our being at the end of the easing process. If it simply indicated that with this additional move we have put a significant amount of stimulus ... | 139 |
fomc | 2,001 | I'll echo that. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | May I have comments from everybody, please? Governor Meyer. | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | Actually, I think that would be a good idea. I also would like to see two parts of the statement adjusted. I'd suggest that the very last part of the second paragraph, which reads "threatens to keep the pace of economic activity unacceptably weak," be toned down a bit. It could say these factors "continue to weigh on t... | 144 |
fomc | 2,001 | Vice Chairman. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, considering how the European Central Bank managed to completely confuse the market and hurt its own credibility very recently, I think trying to say things that are essentially contradictory--or that can easily be interpreted that way--has to be avoided. If we wish to give a signal that the easing moves a... | 372 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | First, to pick up on a point that President McDonough made, I think another signal will be the fact that the list of Reserve Banks requesting a discount rate decrease is an incomplete one; that will be interpreted as the feeling within the Committee. In my earlier comments I suggested that we should not indicate to the... | 143 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | I have two suggestions. First, take the second and the third paragraphs out and go from the statement of action to the statement of risks. Second, add a sentence to that last paragraph which says, "In that regard, the Committee recognizes that 250 basis points of easing is now in the pipeline." Period. | 63 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | My suggestions are along the lines of President Minehan's. I would shorten the statement. | 18 |
fomc | 2,001 | Considerably! | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
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