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fomc | 2,001 | My other question relates to the fact that I share the concerns Bill Poole cited about growth in the various money and credit aggregates being extraordinarily rapid. And, of course, history suggests--whether it's relevant to the future or not--that to ignore money growth is at our peril. Are you comfortable in looking ... | 78 |
fomc | 2,001 | The money and credit aggregates tell me that we are not facing blockages in the financial markets. As President Poole noted, credit is freely available to creditworthy corporations. Now the spreads, certainly on junk bonds and on marginally investment-grade credits, are very, very high by historical standards. So money... | 357 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Don, if I followed Governor Gramlich's comments, he was trying to reconcile the apparent inconsistency between the expectation in financial markets of a very prompt, quick, and fairly substantial reversal of policy early next year and the consensus forecast for the economy. | 50 |
fomc | 2,001 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | If I interpret Chart 1 following page 1 in the Bluebook correctly, the markets expect a reversal in short rates of about 75 or 100 basis points beginning early next year. That expectation is overlaid with a consensus forecast that growth will still be picking up--and might not even be at potential--unemployment may sti... | 119 |
fomc | 2,001 | Whether they're seeing inflationary pressure or real pressure I think is a very difficult question. As some of you have remarked and as we noted in our briefing yesterday, it's very hard to parse the recent rise in rates between inflation and real rates. Although the TIPS market tends to suggest that on balance since t... | 352 |
fomc | 2,001 | That's helpful, thanks. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I just have a comment, which is very similar to what Don just said. Financial market participants do have a view of this Committee, and it is reflected both in rates and in commentary. Living in New York, one sees a lot of these people and talks to them. They believe that this Committee has great courage ... | 211 |
fomc | 2,001 | I hope they're right. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Shall we break for coffee? | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | It is clear that the economy and general expectations eroded further after the May meeting, but in the last week or so there appears to have been some movement away from the unmitigated weakness that characterized a goodly part of the new information earlier in the intermeeting period. For example, the most recent data... | 2,617 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, to synopsize what you just said: We would ease by 25 basis points and we would have a balance of risks statement that indicates continuing concern about economic weakness. I completely agree with that conclusion. And I share the hope, probably best described as a fond hope, that by the next meeting we can... | 77 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think your recommendation is just right, Mr. Chairman. While I believe it is too early to stop the easing process altogether, I think it is important to send a signal that we are not continuing on the path that we have been on. And in my view this proposal balances these considerations just about exactly right. | 63 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | I, too, agree with your proposal. This is exactly what I had hoped would come out of this meeting. In my view a move of 25 basis points, as you have noted, is a signal. To me it also indicates a measure of confidence on the part of the Committee that the central tendency of forecasts--that is, a bounceback by year-end ... | 205 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Kelley. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your suggestion. I must say I do so reluctantly in one respect because I would really like to stop lowering the funds rate at the level where it is right now. But the downside uncertainty is still too high and the psychology is still too fragile, so I think another, smaller easing move is the... | 72 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Parry | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support a further cut in the funds rate to provide a bit more insurance against additional downside surprises. Therefore, I would support your recommendation of 25 basis points. I also support retaining the balance of risks statement weighted toward economic weakness. You mentioned that it would be desi... | 102 |
fomc | 2,001 | I don't think we actually have to say that because everybody in the market knows exactly what such a statement means. | 22 |
fomc | 2,001 | I think it is more powerful if we let them draw the conclusion than if we draw it for them. | 21 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation as well. On Governor Kelley's point, I don't like volatility in the funds rate either. I would point out that if we were following a hard-line monetarist regime and the demand either for money or for goods were bouncing around, the funds rate would too. That doe... | 136 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I guess the best way for me to put it is that I do not disagree strongly with your recommendation. I am concerned that we're making a little too much of the incoming short-run data on the economy. Early in the year, as you know, there was a debate about whether the economy was going to follow a... | 203 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with your recommendation for the 25 basis point cut and for the balance of risks toward weaker economic growth and I, too, hope this is our last move. I do have two major concerns and they are on both sides of this issue. One is that I, too, am concerned, as you are, that there may be a... | 190 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I do not support the recommendation because I believe that the balance of risks statement will be read by the market as a forecast of more ease to come. As I read the balance of risks language, I think it is correct that over the next month or two the balance of risks is genuinely weighted toward economic... | 422 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I concur with your recommendation. With respect to the issue that President Stern raised, when incoming data are weaker than we expect--particularly when the economy is as weak as this one is or is growing as slowly as this one is--I think it's not unreasonable to react to them. If the data cam... | 163 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Given my view of the economy and the risks, I concur with your recommendations on both sides. I think it's the right thing to do to respond to the weaker data that we have been seeing and to recognize that there is a downside risk. I also like the notion of recognizing what we have already done... | 108 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, if I had my preference, I would have stopped the easing process by now. I would not go the quarter point. But, given your recommendation, including the third part of your recommendation on signaling that we are most likely done, as I understand it, unless there is significant new information, I can accept... | 110 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, I support the recommendation. I wish I could be more comfortable with the balance of risks statement. I hesitate to reopen that issue even a crack. I hope that the signaling effects of your statement will work. I find myself a good bit in Bill Poole's camp in having the sense that the market and many of u... | 168 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A year ago at this time when we came into the meeting we had the hope from the prior meeting that we would not need to move again. We had made a 50 basis point increase in May last year and by the time of our June meeting people expected that we would move the rate up more. We hoped that we wou... | 402 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | I agree with reducing the fed funds target by 25 basis points and with putting the bias toward economic weakness because I think that's where it is. I do think, though, that having to vote on the risk statement and then announcing it is not serving us well. I think it's making our decisionmaking process much more compl... | 168 |
fomc | 2,001 | Governor Meyer. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | I believe that we may be at an important inflection point for monetary policy. It's important today, in my view, that we at least decelerate the pace of easing and signal that the considerable degree of monetary easing in train is likely to contribute to improvement in the pace of economic activity. Mr. Chairman, I bel... | 213 |
fomc | 2,001 | Okay. Would you read the appropriate statement for that policy? | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | This is on page 16 of the Bluebook: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with reducing... | 129 |
fomc | 2,001 | Call the roll, please. | 6 |
fomc | 2,001 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Minehan Yes President Moskow Yes President Poole No | 40 |
fomc | 2,001 | Can we distribute the draft statement consonant with this? Do we have copies? This statement is written on the premise that the Board of Governors will move on the discount action. Obviously, should that prove to be incorrect, we'd have to revise this. | 50 |
fomc | 2,001 | Do you want me to say a few words about the statement? | 13 |
fomc | 2,001 | Go ahead, why don't you. | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | In response to the discussion at the last meeting, Chairman Greenspan thought it might be wise to make a few changes with regard to the statement released after Committee meetings. One is to have a little more structured discussion by having me introduce the statement and the thinking behind its wording. Second, we wan... | 279 |
fomc | 2,001 | I guess the silence could be replaced by applause. The silence is pretty pleasant. | 16 |
fomc | 2,001 | I'm not so bold as to make that interpretation. | 10 |
fomc | 2,001 | Did we make it short enough so that there is nothing to be said about it? | 17 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, I hate to depart [laughter] from this general satisfaction, but I would take out that reference to profitability and just say "declining business capital spending." My guess is, given the trend in labor costs and so forth, that declining profitability may be with us for a while. I don't know why we'd want to sing... | 70 |
fomc | 2,001 | No, I think that's precisely the reason we do. In fact it's a crucial element in the-- | 20 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, but there are some interesting issues involved, having to do with profit share and labor share, and so on. You know, it may be that all we're seeing is a return to more normality. I guess that is my thought. | 49 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes, but even if that's true, if that argument were valid today, it would have been valid at the last meeting and the meeting before. | 29 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, I was going to raise it at our last meeting. [Laughter] | 17 |
fomc | 2,001 | There's a statute of limitations! [Laughter] | 10 |
fomc | 2,001 | Well, I don't know. Is there a law that says once profitability is in here it has to stay forever? | 23 |
fomc | 2,001 | No. Frankly, taking it out at this particular stage I think creates more potential problems than leaving it does because this wording is almost identical to what we've said in the past. | 36 |
fomc | 2,001 | Okay, I will find that a compelling argument. But I would also hope that at some point we can find an excuse to get it out of there. | 31 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes, when profits start going up. [Laughter] | 12 |
fomc | 2,001 | Maybe even before then. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Is that all right with everybody? Can we go into recess and have the Board of Governors meet in my office? We will be back to report on that deliberation. [Recess] | 38 |
fomc | 2,001 | The Board of Governors voted to lower the discount rate by 1/4 percentage point. We will continue by convening a Board of Governors meeting to discuss the Lombard rate, but everybody here is going to be participating in that discussion and we will do it over lunch. So why don't we adjourn, get our lunch, and then Brian... | 100 |
fomc | 2,001 | Let me remind you that any revisions to your individual forecasts should be submitted to Dave Stockton by July 6. | 22 |
fomc | 2,001 | Let's adjourn, get our lunch, and come back into this meeting room. | 16 |
fomc | 2,001 | Who would like to move approval of the minutes of the June 26-27, 2001 meeting? | 22 |
fomc | 2,001 | Move approval. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | Without objection, they are approved. Dino Kos. | 10 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will be referring to the charts that were distributed at your places earlier this morning. 1 The first chart depicts the standard 3-month cash and forward deposit rates from early April through last Friday. As you can see, U.S. short-term rates continued to decline over the recent intermeetin... | 1,758 |
fomc | 2,001 | Questions for Dino? If not-- | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | Move approval of domestic operations. | 6 |
fomc | 2,001 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | Without objection, they are approved. Now we'll go on to David Wilcox and Vince Reinhart. David. | 22 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A reader of this meeting's Greenbook could be forgiven, I think, for contracting at least a mild case of sticker shock. After all, we revised down our estimate of growth for the current year--already half completed--by 0.4 percentage point, and for next year by twice that much, to cut 1-1/4 per... | 2,053 |
fomc | 2,001 | Perhaps the hardest challenge confronting the staff as we sorted through the incoming data over the intermeeting period to prepare a forecast for the global economy was to avoid falling into a self-reinforcing spiral of pessimism. As the forecasting process unfolded, we marked down the outlook for economic growth abroa... | 1,908 |
fomc | 2,001 | Questions for our colleagues? President Parry. | 9 |
fomc | 2,001 | David, you mentioned three considerations that we might want to take into account as we look at the forecast. The second was that the variability in aggregate supply gets translated pretty much on a one-for-one basis into the variability in aggregate demand. I must admit I was a little surprised by that in the sense th... | 119 |
fomc | 2,001 | Let me make two comments on that. First of all, I made an oblique reference to the issue of lags. We translate a downward shift in the trend in incomes to consumer spending with a lagged response of a couple of quarters. We think it takes households a little while to catch on to this change. We brought down potential G... | 187 |
fomc | 2,001 | Permanent income as well? | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you. | 3 |
fomc | 2,001 | No further questions? Who would like to start our Committee discussion? President Broaddus. | 18 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The overall economic picture in our District has not changed markedly over the last several weeks. Manufacturing activity continues to decline, although perhaps at a bit slower pace than earlier. The key issue, of course, as highlighted in the Beige Book summary, is whether the weakness in the ... | 992 |
fomc | 2,001 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,001 | At each of our recent meetings I've expected better news next time, and each time the news has been disappointing. The slowdown is now a year old and shows few signs of coming to an end. Monetary policy easing began almost eight months ago. Fiscal policy has now eased and tax rebate checks are in the mail. More recentl... | 670 |
fomc | 2,001 | It was! President Moskow. | 7 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. On balance the Seventh District economy has not changed significantly since my report in June, but most reports now seem somewhat more pessimistic than before, at least about the near future. Overall activity has remained quite sluggish and that has been disappointing for many businesses that h... | 1,158 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Mr. Chairman, the economic climate in the Twelfth District has turned negative as the high-tech downturn has intensified and spilled over into other sectors. During the three months ending in July, District employment contracted 0.3 percent at an annual rate for a net loss of about 19,000 jobs. Downsizing among technol... | 924 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,001 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, what a difference six weeks make! Or maybe I should say what a difference one additional month of data and some revisions of past data make. You will recall that New England's headline economic data had been a bit better than those for the nation as a whole, though anecdotes from regional... | 1,262 |
fomc | 2,001 | President Stern. | 3 |
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