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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I've commented before, and it continues to be the case, the District economy for the most part is moving in lockstep with the national economy. The District's economy has slowed further, I would judge, but the slowing hasn't been sharp. As for labor market conditions, reported job vacancies ...
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President Guynn.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Last time I reported that the head of my regional economics group had suggested that it looked as if it was going to be a "bummer of a summer." Unless you're a homebuilder in our region, he was about right. I'm finding it harder and harder to find just the right adjectives to describe the degre...
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President Santomero.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As the economy transitions from a period of unacceptably slow growth to a more reasonable pace of activity, we should expect to see the data shift from predominantly bad news to a mixture of some positive and some negative observations on the state of the economy. This ought to be true at both ...
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President Hoenig.
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Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District's economy continues weak. Manufacturing remains in a slump in our area. According to our Bank's most recent manufacturing survey, activity declined again in July, moving well below year-ago levels. Inventories were also down substantially and a significant fraction of firms said they pl...
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President Jordan.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, a note on agriculture: Corn crops in the region are coming in very strong, as evidenced in the last couple of weeks by roadside signs offering a dozen ears of fresh picked corn for 50 cents. I thought that was a real bargain until I went across Lake Erie to Ontario and saw outside a stor...
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Vice Chair.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Second District economy has weakened further recently, while both finished goods inflation and input cost pressures have continued to recede. Much of the weakness is still concentrated in manufacturing, but other sectors have shown signs of slowing as well. In July, private sector payroll e...
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Governor Ferguson.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think the Committee is faced with the question of whether or not to accept and adopt the Greenbook's baseline forecast, which frankly, given where we are starting is a relatively attractive forecast. It points to a return of the economy to its downwardly revised potential growth for the forec...
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President Poole.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm going to offer a few bits of anecdotal information that complement things that have already been said, but I will try not to duplicate what is already on the table. My UPS and FedEx contacts both reported that much of the world is not doing very well, though they were both fairly optimistic...
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Governor Gramlich.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A few meetings ago I made the comment that the economy was susceptible to chronic and acute risks--the chronic risk of rising inflation and the acute risk of recession. The comment drew some chuckles and people told me afterwards that they liked the analogy. The only problem is that now, with t...
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Governor Meyer.
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The previous Greenbook projected some strengthening in growth in the fourth quarter and a recovery to growth near trend and to a level of output near potential in 2002. And I believe there was a sense of agreement that if the forecast stabilized, that forecast provided a strong case for holding policy unchanged after l...
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Governor Kelley.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As usual, by this time our discussion has thoroughly dissected and evaluated the economy, and little remains to be added. So please indulge a short-timer for a few concluding ruminations. First of all, it's necessary to acknowledge, as almost everyone here has, significant disappointment in the...
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Thank you. Coffee is available.
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Let's turn now to Don Kohn.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As many of you remarked at the Committee's June meeting and again today, the special characteristics of the current slowdown are shaping the appropriate course of monetary policy and its likely effects. In particular, the major driver in this slowdown seems to have been a re-evaluation of the p...
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Questions for Don? If not, let me get started. I think it's fairly evident, certainly in retrospect, that we are seeing an absorption of very large capital losses throughout the economic system. I don't know whether one would call this a structural adjustment, but it certainly is not what we have embodied in our standa...
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I concur with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.
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President Parry.
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Mr. Chairman, for me the policy choice is a close call. While I can support the proposed easing, I do think there are some reasonable arguments for leaving the funds rate unchanged at this time. First, there appears to be a consensus--supported by our outlook, the Greenbook, and even the lower 10 percent of the Blue Ch...
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President Moskow.
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Mr. Chairman, I agree with both parts of your recommendation, for a 25 basis point cut and the balance of risks toward economic weakness. You mentioned that if we did a 50 basis point cut, it would scare people. I would add that if we did zero, I think it would have the same impact. In my view this is a time when consu...
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President Stern.
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Thank you. My interpretation of the course of policy is consistent with what Don Kohn said at the outset. That is, as best I can judge the situation, we're trying to prop up components of aggregate demand that are interest-rate sensitive until the inventory correction process runs it course and until conditions and att...
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I just want to say that I think our techniques of knowing where we are have improved a great deal.
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Well, I sincerely hope you're right but the proof is in the pudding.
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Well said! President Poole.
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Mr. Chairman, I can support your recommendation.
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President McTeer.
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I think your proposal is just right.
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Governor Ferguson.
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Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation.
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President Minehan.
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I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I have had concerns similar to President Stern's and possibly others around the table that we won't quickly recognize when the economy has turned around and that policy will be too easy too long. But given where we are, it seems to me that policy needs to be a little easier ...
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President Broaddus.
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Mr. Chairman, if you'll forgive a personal note, let me make a couple of comments here. After our meeting in June, where I supported a quarter point reduction in the funds rate, one of my FOMC colleagues came up to me and said "Gee, you're really changing stripes. Where is the old inflation hawk I used to know?"
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That was actually me!
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And that's a fair question. But the answer I would give to the question is that I can remember when the Committee did not have full credibility. A lot of us were saying then that if we could ever achieve credibility, that would give us greater flexibility to move the funds rate in the short run in conjunction with chan...
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Well, at this stage the preliminarily statement does two things, both of which it did the last time: One, it mentions how much we have reduced the rate since the beginning of the year; and two, it eliminates any notion of an intermeeting move. But also remember that what we did most importantly last time was that we cu...
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Mr. Chairman, if I could comment. I think by saying that we've reduced the funds rate by a total of 300 basis points and by continuing to take out any notion of an intermeeting move, the financial markets will interpret the statement in exactly the way you want.
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I think that helps, Bill. But given the level of the funds rate now, I think an additional phrase might be prudent. I'm not sure I'm selling this to anybody here! [Laughter]
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Governor Gramlich.
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Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I agree with those who think that down the road--in a few quarters or maybe a year--having moved the funds rate down today might complicate our problems. But I think we have to do it. I would also underline something Don said, namely that right now we're in a position where ...
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President Santomero.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Given my views of the economic outlook and the risks that we observe, I think both parts of your recommended policy are correct. So I support your proposal.
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President Guynn.
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Mr. Chairman, I can support your recommendation. I think the arguments for another modest easing move have been made around the table. I would say that I --and I suspect others who have offered some arguments on the other side at the June meeting--had revised those arguments coming in today's meeting. I wanted to make ...
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I think the market is going to take us off the treadmill.
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I hope that's the way it's done.
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In fact, if we could actually arrange it, that would be the ideal way. In other words, the ideal way would be that we don't shock the market but that suddenly we get the federal funds futures rates flattening out because the data are beginning to look better. And at the moment I see nothing to prevent us from doing tha...
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Mr. Chairman, like some others, I do worry a bit about the adjustments that will become necessary as the economy begins to recover on the other side of our current problem. But I support your recommendation. I think it's right for today.
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Governor Kelley.
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I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.
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President Jordan.
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Thank you. First, I'll make sure that before the next meeting we do get not only some mixed reports but also some strong reports! [Laughter] Some of my Bank's directors have turned from being very bearish two or three months ago to saying, "Wait a minute, things are starting to improve." So I'll make sure you hear some...
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President Hoenig.
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Mr. Chairman, I think the proposal you put on the table is quite reasonable and I would support it. Let me make a couple of comments. I do think our policy is accommodative right now and it will become more accommodative with this move. But in my view it's not just the markets that are nervous and uneasy. Main Street i...
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Before we take a vote, since the press statement is a relevant part of the decision here, I would ask the Secretary to distribute copies of the draft. Let me just say that what was done is as close to a de minimis change from the previous statement as we could come up with. Michelle, did you provide the wording of the ...
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Yes, the proposed language is shown, with strike-outs indicating changes from the previous statement.
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Yes.
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Okay, so we can actually see the changes from the previous press release. We took President Hoenig's advice, as you can see.
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He's a very important fellow.
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I'm flattered.
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Excellent.
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Amen!
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Okay, then we can vote on the 25 basis point cut and the risks toward economic weakness. Will you read the directive language, please?
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This language is on page 15 of the Bluebook. It's a little hard to find but it comes after Chart 3, which has the blue-shaded section in it: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objec...
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Call the roll, please.
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Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes Governor Kelley Yes Governor Meyer Yes President Minehan Yes President Moskow Yes President Poole Yes
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We will recess briefly so the Federal Reserve Board can meet on the discount rate. The reason we're going into recess, as you know, is that this press statement presupposes a discount rate action that has not been taken. So until that's assured we cannot adjourn. May I ask the Board members to go into my office? Hopefu...
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The Board of Governors accepted discount rate requests from seven banks. This meeting then is adjourned upon confirmation of the date of our next meeting, which is--
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October 2nd.
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October 2nd. As you are aware, that is an interesting day, which may or may not be devoid of conflicts for other than monetary policy reasons. We are monitoring the situation fairly closely and if we need to make any adjustments in the meeting date or location we, of course, will be in contact with all of you immediate...
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Mr. Chairman, you said meeting dates and location. I presume the date would stay the same but the location might change if circumstances warrant.
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Yes, I would assume that. I amend my remarks accordingly. Shall we go to lunch?
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Good morning, everyone. Would somebody like to move approval of the minutes of August 21st?
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So move, Mr. Chairman
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Without objection, they are approved. Dino.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll be referring to the charts with the salmon cover that were distributed to you.1 I will break up my remarks into two parts. First, I will talk about general market developments, especially since September 11th, and then I'll say a little about our operations in the aftermath of the attacks....
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First, let me say that despite the tensions you were under, you make it sound very simple. And I applaud both what you did and making it simple. When will you get data on lending volume for October 1st?
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Securities lending volume?
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Yes.
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We did a bit over $10 billion yesterday.
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In other words, the volume was essentially unchanged from September 28th?
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That's right. Apparently the volume of fails is still at a very high level.
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But you still don't know fully why that is occurring?
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There are almost as many explanations as there are market participants. It is an issue that the market is struggling with, though. But they're still--
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As a working hypothesis, assume they're all correct! [Laughter] Further questions for Dino?
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I'd like to move the ratification of the operations. But I would also suggest that the Committee add to that a sense of gratitude to those at the Desk for the way they handled such a very, very complicated and difficult situation. And, of course, the Desk itself was working in difficult circumstances with the relocatio...
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I'm sure your suggestion will meet with no objection from your FOMC colleagues. Further questions? Yes, President Jordan.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also thought that the Desk performed extraordinarily. No matter what kinds of contingency scenarios one might have envisioned, this was way beyond what anyone would have imagined. So the Desk's performance really was remarkable. I was studying Charts 6, 7, and 8, especially in light of the FO...
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In answering, let me try to package those questions together. I don't think we viewed the target funds rate as a floor. What we were trying to do was return to some sense of normalcy in the functioning of the market. The low rate itself was creating problems. There were problems for investors. For example, money market...
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