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fomc | 2,002 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic conditions in the Southeast have deteriorated somewhat further across almost all sectors since our June meeting. I keep looking for positive signs of a pickup in growth, but evidence seems sparse at this point. One consolation is that activity remains at a relatively high level. Turnin... | 1,204 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Over and over again from people who come through the Bank and from those I meet in traveling around the District, the very common refrain I hear on the cost side is that health insurance and other insurance costs are causing a lot of problems. Labor turnover is down, and labor is readily availa... | 391 |
fomc | 2,002 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Economic growth appears to be slow right now, whether we look at it regionally, nationally, or internationally. The latest data from the Eleventh District point to widespread weakness across the region and across industries. A modest recovery appears to be under way, but it lacks the economic drivers--energy, high-tech... | 875 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. If at our last meeting the recovery in New England seemed to be bubbling along, albeit unevenly, it now seems that the heat really has been turned down. Activity hasn't ground to a complete halt, but areas that seemed poised to improve in May now seem to be pausing or perhaps even stalling out ... | 1,452 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. President Santomero. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Incoming data point to continued moderate recovery in economic activity in the Third District, but the pace has slowed from earlier this year. Retail sales in the region were mainly flat in July but were up from year-ago levels in most product lines. Local auto dealers report that the new round... | 1,397 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First on the region, our District economy clearly lost momentum in recent weeks. Both factory shipments and auto sales were flat in July after rising significantly earlier this year. More broadly, our business contacts from the furniture industry and other principal regional industries tell us ... | 1,069 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm used to speaking at these meetings after a jolt of caffeine for me and for you! The economy certainly has been working through a difficult adjustment to previous overbuilding and overvaluation of the capital stock. This type of cycle is highly unusual in post-World War II economic experienc... | 1,100 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Most, but not all, of the anecdotes and readings on the District economy have been positive. Retail sales and consumer spending continue to advance. That's true of autos, but it's also true outside the auto sector as well, according to the reports we get. Spring and summer tourism has been pret... | 626 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As others have already noted, during the intermeeting period we've seen a number of indicators, all of which have been a little weaker than expected. Labor market indicators, consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, and business investment all have led forecasters to shade down their outloo... | 1,385 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | In preparation for the meeting today, I surveyed a number of bankers, and in many respects my findings basically are consistent with what we've heard around the table today. Consumer lending has remained strong. The growth is starting to level in nonmortgage consumer products, but loan quality remains strong. Home equi... | 563 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. I suggest we take a ten-minute break for coffee. | 14 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bernanke, would you start us off? | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As we search for the signal of an incipient recovery, we have heavy noise coming from two sides. The first source of noise is the financial markets. Our financial markets usually exhibit controlled hysteria, but lately we probably could drop the adjective "controlled." The stock market in parti... | 788 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | As many of us have already noted, the economy is continuing to expand but at a slower pace than earlier in the year. As we have noted in our prior meetings, we have been revising downward our forecast since spring. At this stage it is hard to identify major risks of inflation over the intermediate term. Thus the focus ... | 426 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The economy seems pretty clearly to have suffered a relapse since our last meeting. Equity prices have dropped sharply, and various spending, employment, and confidence measures have been weaker than expected. Even the GDP revisions have lowered the recent growth numbers. There are some bright ... | 677 |
fomc | 2,002 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Developments in the Second District's economy have been mixed since the last report, though housing has continued to be robust. On the price side, despite continued escalation in nonwage benefit costs, prices of finished goods and services have remained remarkably stable. Retail sales, which we... | 875 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I had absolutely no desire to speak last this morning. In fact I thought I had indicated the desire to speak early, but it seems that my presence at the table has already begun to fade! [Laughter] Had I spoken earlier about the region, right after Mike Moskow, my remarks not surprisingly would ... | 1,690 |
fomc | 2,002 | A splendid way to end--with a very large question mark. I think we can now move on to Vince Reinhart. | 25 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Talk about the dog days of summer: Over the intermeeting period, share prices rode a roller coaster that left equity investors 73/4 percent less wealthy, key emerging financial markets flared, rumors of funding difficulties at several large intermediaries surfaced, and incoming indicators sugge... | 1,917 |
fomc | 2,002 | Questions for Vince? | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | I have a question. In the Bluebook, the Taylor rule recommendation and the recommendation of the perfect foresight simulations are quite different. Which of those two approaches would best really model or characterize past policy? | 41 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, the Taylor rule is supposed to be in part descriptive of policy decisions. That is, the parameters were fit to explain a good part of the 1990s. So in that sense the Taylor rule is consistent with what the Committee has done in the past. The important piece of information that the Taylor rule doesn't have but the... | 149 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay, thank you. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Any further questions? If not, let me get started. All of you have directly or indirectly emphasized the issues of the overvaluation of the stock market and the irregularities of corporate governance that have led to a very significant contraction in stock prices and a major widening of spreads in a number of financial... | 2,450 |
fomc | 2,002 | Uncomfortably. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | To uncomfortably balanced. I would have said back then that they were reasonably balanced. Clearly, that is no longer the case, and I think we need to acknowledge that. In summary, I would hope for a resolution that holds rates unchanged but does shift the balance of risks statement toward weakness. Vice Chair. | 63 |
fomc | 2,002 | I concur with your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Wow! [Laughter] I certainly agree with leaving the rate unchanged. Uncertainty about financial statements has created more headwinds than I had expected, and now I have a feeling that they're going to last longer than a lot of people may be thinking. So if that means the balance of risks is toward weakness, I can live ... | 69 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Broaddus. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, as I said earlier, I don't favor easing policy further today. I would not favor moving the tilt either at this stage. To me the key factor--and many people have made this point--is that policy is already very accommodative. The real funds rate is already very close to zero if not at zero. Since we haven't... | 367 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, I have almost the opposite take. I think I would have been--if I were voting today--one among perhaps not many at this table who could have voted for an easing in policy. But I am perfectly willing to go along with your recommendation. I do think that things have changed significantly enough to bring into questio... | 147 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation. Although I am somewhat concerned about the potential for subpar output growth going forward, I think the signs of that are relatively recent and derive from noisy high-frequency data and from developments in the financial markets, which could turn around, parti... | 512 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I endorse both parts of your recommendation. I obviously already spoke on the balance of risks issue. With respect to the question of moving policy going forward, I think I'm somewhere between Cathy Minehan and Don Kohn. On the one hand, the incoming data have been much weaker than one would ha... | 122 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I can support your recommendation. As Vince reminded us, earlier in the year market participants had priced in a significant and relatively early tightening of policy. As it turned out, I think we were well advised not to act on that. Now they are pricing in some easing of policy soon if not im... | 199 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support the recommendation to keep the federal funds rate where it is, but I'd like to associate myself with the position that Al Broaddus spelled out for the balance of risks statement. Mr. Chairman, I interpret your commentary as saying that from what we know now and based on our best guess... | 341 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendation with regard to the funds rate. At the time of the last meeting, the risks for the economy and inflation were fairly well balanced. But it seemed to me that there was some sense in the room that it would take quite a bit to induce a further easing of policy and that the bar... | 133 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. I think where my perspective may differ from President Poole's is that I don't really want to tie our hands right now. I am concerned about weakness. I don't believe we should respond to what is going on in the market but rather to the implications that has in terms of consu... | 192 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support both parts of the recommendation. I do think--and this relates to something that Governor Ferguson raised--that we have two roles here today. One is the monetary policy role. But we also have a de facto role at this time as one of the few bastions of credibility left in the country and particularly in Washing... | 102 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of the recommendation. I think it would be premature to lower rates, though I have some sympathy for those who have some affinity for that position. On the balance of risks, I've been mulling this over for the last week or so and changing my view every few minutes! But in the final an... | 333 |
fomc | 2,002 | You sound like a true conservative. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Either that or a true idiot! [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 2,002 | Ned, I think there are different interpretations, and sometimes being called a conservative is a compliment. [Laughter] And I would not say you're a true idiot. | 34 |
fomc | 2,002 | Ben was saying earlier that he had read the transcripts of some recent meetings and there was a lot of laughter but he didn't hear much laughter today. I said it comes later in the meeting! | 38 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I can support your recommendation for no change in the fed funds rate at this meeting and a change in the balance of risks statement. I have a slight preference for leaving the balance of risks statement as is. As I noted earlier, however, I do believe that the risks have shifted toward economic weakness, so I can't ar... | 150 |
fomc | 2,002 | May I just say parenthetically that I don't deny that a balance of risks switch will have that effect. But if we get a few good numbers on orders or sales or in GDP or profits, I submit that the market will be way ahead of us. | 51 |
fomc | 2,002 | I agree. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation on leaving the rate unchanged. I, too, have a slight preference for maintaining the balance of risk statement as it is. However, I acknowledge that the risks have shifted. Nevertheless, I still think, as we look at our projections and the stance of both monetary and fiscal policy, that a l... | 150 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bernanke. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I concur with both parts of your recommendation. In particular, the weakening of the economy is quite evident to the public, and I think it's important that we show that the Federal Reserve recognizes that and is prepared to respond to it. I'd like to add that I also agree with you that if things take a t... | 135 |
fomc | 2,002 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support both parts of your recommendation. Nevertheless, I do believe that the bias statement is not serving us well and that we would be better off not having it. But we do have it, so we have to tell the truth about it. And the balance of risks has clearly shifted downward, so we have no choice but to acknowledge t... | 69 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I can be comfortable with what you suggest, but I would want to associate myself with the position that President Broaddus first expressed and a number of people agreed with. I think we're still learning how to use both the bias and the press statement that we consider at the end of each meeting. I was lo... | 198 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendation not to move rates at this time. The accommodative stance of monetary policy that we have in place is intended in part to protect us against the hopefully short-term slowdown that we've seen over the last month or six weeks. So with that insurance built in, I think the curr... | 270 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. Will you read the directive language that has no change in rates but shifts the balance of risks to weakness? | 24 |
fomc | 2,002 | This is from page 13 in the Bluebook: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with mainta... | 123 |
fomc | 2,002 | Would you call the roll please? | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Bernanke Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Jordan Yes Governor Kohn Yes President McTeer Yes Governor Olson Yes President Santomero Yes Governor Stern Yes | 49 |
fomc | 2,002 | Would you circulate the draft statement, which tries to capture that decision? [Pause] | 17 |
fomc | 2,002 | Bravo. Silence indicates admiration. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Does anybody wish to make any comments relevant to the statement? If not, I will assume that it is adequate for our purposes and it will be released. Our next meeting is September 24. We do not have a formal program for lunch, but the usual exquisite cuisine is available for those who wish to stay! | 63 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I just wanted to point out that August 14 is the deadline for corporations' SEC filings and today, August 13, is the deadline for your filings regarding special topics for the January 2003 meeting. | 46 |
fomc | 2,002 | They both have the same importance, right, Vince? | 11 |
fomc | 2,002 | My goal would be to distribute a memo to the Committee on Monday that lists the results of your returns. So there's still a little time to come in under the wire. | 34 |
fomc | 2,002 | The meeting is officially adjourned. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | The meeting is called to order. Would somebody like to move approval of the minutes of the August 13 meeting? | 23 |
fomc | 2,002 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Without objection. Dino Kos, please. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | 1 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll be referring to the charts that were circulated just a little while ago. The top panel of the page 1 shows three-month U.S. dollar cash deposit rates, the libor fixing, and also the three-, six-, and nine-month forward deposit rates, from June 3 to September 20. Since your last meeting, ... | 2,459 |
fomc | 2,002 | You didn't explain why the currency growth suddenly disappeared. Is it international? | 14 |
fomc | 2,002 | It's both domestic and international. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | By our estimates, Mr. Chairman, the foreign holdings of U.S. currency have fallen rather sharply over the last couple of months. Just for background, in 2000 and 2001 foreign holdings were growing at a clip of about 9 percent. Our estimates are that in July their growth was around 81/2 percent, and then it slowed to 4 ... | 87 |
fomc | 2,002 | Is that because of Argentina and Brazil? | 8 |
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