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fomc | 2,002 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Growth in the Eleventh District's economy seems to have stalled since the August FOMC meeting. A sense of drift comes through from our Beige Book contacts, our recent board and advisory council meetings, and many of the latest available statistics. In terms of employment, Texas showed signs of recovery in the first qua... | 1,312 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to concentrate on anecdotal information that has some forward-looking element to it. I hear the same sorts of reports of a mixed situation and feelings of uneasiness that everybody else has mentioned. Just briefly, let me note with regard to the housing industry that we had a luncheon wi... | 793 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Tenth District has remained pretty much in a holding pattern since our last meeting. It has maintained earlier gains but has shown no further improvement since early in the summer. Manufacturing activity was flat for the second month in a row in August, after improving most of the year unti... | 841 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm gradually changing my mind about the economic outlook. For most of the year that outlook has been moderate to weak. Monetary policy has been accommodative, and we have felt that this accommodative policy would be sufficient to restore economic health. For most of the year the recovery has b... | 1,164 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In its public statements the Committee has been characterizing policy as accommodative since March, and real overnight interest rates have been around zero and well below equilibrium levels since late last year. While the economy has indeed proven quite resilient, as President Jordan noted, eve... | 1,128 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The initial line of the Greenbook indicates that the tenor of economic reports has been mixed. Obviously that is true. However, like others around the table, I think the picture that emerges is really quite clear. I see it in three separate parts, a triptych if you will. In the middle panel is ... | 1,261 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'm just going to summarize my remarks since many of them echo the comments we've heard around the table today. I believe the economic data that we've been seeing recently continue to show very mixed signs about the strength of the recovery. I would also echo the concerns expressed by others about the direction in whic... | 429 |
fomc | 2,002 | Is that house for sale? | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh yes. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Still. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | Are you bidding? | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | No, I'm just pointing out that there's a bubble. | 11 |
fomc | 2,002 | Overall, I believe that one other concern mentioned around the table is increasingly coming to the forefront, and that is that the economy appears to be very fragile. That brings into question the ability of the economy to absorb any future shocks that may come from the various sources that we've talked about today. We... | 100 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Much like Governor Bies, a lot of the comments that I have prepared have already been stated, so I will just mention a couple of points. One is on the subject of fiscal policy. As the Chairman testified two weeks ago, the Budget Enforcement Act provisions are about to expire next week. Also, we will end the fiscal year... | 634 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bernanke. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with many speakers today that the recovery remains disappointingly soft. The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity. The consumer and business sectors can't diverge indefin... | 453 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you very much. That completes the roundtable. We turn now to Vince Reinhart. | 19 |
fomc | 2,002 | 2 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'd like to start with an observation about the market reaction to the announcement after your August meeting, using the materials that were just distributed. At that meeting, some members stated a preference to retain an assessment of balanced risks as to your dual objectives on the concern ... | 2,041 |
fomc | 2,002 | Questions for Vincent? Obviously, you have been convincing as usual. I think there's an emerging consensus within this group as to how we ought to be looking at the economy and policy. In this regard, I believe it's important to summarize a few developments and list various alternatives that we confront. First, I think... | 1,444 |
fomc | 2,002 | Actually, we reduced it to about 3.8 percent, allowing for some revisions in the hours data that we got late last week. | 28 |
fomc | 2,002 | So, for all practical purposes productivity is still very strong as measured from the product data. It's even stronger when calculated from the data that are based on gross domestic income. The statistical discrepancy between the two estimates is increasing because the growth of the GDP measured from the income side is... | 1,051 |
fomc | 2,002 | Japan is Japan. I said that. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | Japan is Japan; that is the equivalent. I subscribe to that very incisive thought without defining what it means. | 23 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, it has to be true! [Laughter] | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Oh, stop your erudition! [Laughter] The problem that we're confronted with is that we used to believe that the monetary response to an oil price spike was indeterminate. Indeed, a very strong argument was made in earlier years when such price spikes occurred that the appropriate response of the monetary authorities was... | 1,172 |
fomc | 2,002 | A Wednesday. The previous day is Election Day. | 10 |
fomc | 2,002 | Well, it strikes me that even though we don't take account of political considerations in our decisionmaking, there will be many people who will wonder what we had in mind. So I think we should try to convey something additional in the statement that we will release after today's meeting, not just the usual "we'll keep... | 449 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I concur with your recommendation, but I would like to explain why. If we were to move today, I believe that would send a signal that we know something about the economy that nobody else knows. The markets, the American people, and those around the world simply are not prepared for that. Now, one of the r... | 307 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. Let me outline a few thoughts that I had as I walked into our meeting this morning. I started with a question: Will growth momentum develop soon? You mentioned that we might know in a few weeks or perhaps in a few months. Clearly, we have heard a lot of negative reports. It'... | 646 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I endorse both parts of your recommendation, including the implicit part about dealing with geopolitical risks in the statement. Let me take a minute to talk about two or three other issues. One issue that a few people raised was a concern about unbalanced growth. In that regard, Vincent picked... | 271 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, we'll do it anyway. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | Clearly, you didn't disagree with that. The other point is that it will be interesting to see if in fact for the first time, at least in my short period on the Committee--though I know you've been looking at the economy on a daily basis for fifty years --the next two data releases clarify the situation. [Laughter] If t... | 100 |
fomc | 2,002 | I hope you're right. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Those are my comments, but I do support your recommendation. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you. Governor Gramlich. | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | I can be very patient with those who have more patience than I have, [laughter] but I'm afraid I've seen enough evidence of weakness already. | 30 |
fomc | 2,002 | Is that the end of the sentence? President Hoenig. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support both parts of your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. As I said earlier, it would be nice to see how this economy would be performing if we could lift this heavy-handed uncertainty, but at the moment that is not an option. I think that does put us in the position of having to watch the situation carefully. And if ... | 100 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also support both aspects of your recommendation. With inflation about as low as I believe it should go and with the possibility of persistent output gaps and further declines in inflation, I would argue that the principal threat to good economic performance is subpar growth. And I certainly ... | 289 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Jordan. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I concur with your recommendation because I think that the near term is dominated by uncertainties of a global nature. For the longer term, though, all deflations or disinflationary impulses are not equal. And deflationary pressure in the goods sector coming from extraordinary productivity gain... | 73 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation. In my view the key issues are the uncertainty and the inability to get traction in the recovery. I think we will get some clarification on where the economy is, going forward. So I think the best thing to do is to wait and see. | 54 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support both parts of your recommendation. I just want to make two comments. One relates to the point you mentioned about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee, which I think is extremely important. I support fully your suggestion that we describe any ea... | 170 |
fomc | 2,002 | I don't wish to imply anything other than that. I was being facetious when I was talking about that. | 22 |
fomc | 2,002 | I didn't think you did imply anything other than that, but I just-- | 15 |
fomc | 2,002 | Fortunately, I think we have built up a degree of credibility such that the notion that we would move for political reasons hasn't really arisen--other than among an inevitable number of commentators--in a very, very long time. And I believe that's really to the credit of this organization. I think our record has been ... | 69 |
fomc | 2,002 | Absolutely. And we all want to keep it that way. | 12 |
fomc | 2,002 | You bet. President Broaddus. | 8 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I strongly support your recommendation. I want to make clear that what I was talking about earlier was contingency planning--thinking about what we would do if we hit the zero bound--and that's a different issue. But with respect to the immediate situation, looking at the whole probability distribution ar... | 283 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I don't think our individual views of where we are or even what is around the corner in the next few quarters are all that different this morning. In fact, I'm probably on the less optimistic end of that range of outcomes. As my earlier comments suggest, I'm probably still in the minority today in terms o... | 507 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I concur. I can be patient as well. I must say, as I indicated in my earlier remarks, that I've had concerns similar to those that President Guynn just mentioned about the downside risks of moving interest rates ever lower. But I am concerned as well about the persistent economic gaps we have, ... | 238 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support both parts of your recommendation. In the brief period of time that I've been here, it seems that every word that is changed in the press statement that accompanies our policy announcement generates ten additional questions. But even having said that, I think it's very important to acknowledge the geopolitica... | 65 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Parry. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support both parts of your recommendation. I'm not yet ready to lower rates, and I hope that the data we receive over the coming period will clarify the issues we have discussed, although I doubt that they will clarify the situation greatly. My hope also is that a decision can wait until the next meetin... | 65 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation. But I guess I'm more anxious than President Parry because I am getting very concerned about the lack of momentum and robustness in the recovery despite the geopolitical situation. I do think we need to pay close attention to what is happening as the data are released in the ... | 64 |
fomc | 2,002 | President McTeer. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I thought you gave an eloquent case for easing today, and I really thought that's what you were recommending right up until the end of your remarks. I agree with Governor Gramlich that the time has come to go ahead and ease. I also tend to agree with Governor Ferguson in that I doubt that we're going to l... | 103 |
fomc | 2,002 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,002 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, and I would remain open minded about whether we will need to react in the intermeeting period or not. But I would caution against responding to what are inherently noisy data--we've had a lot of experience with that--and also against holding ourselves to a standard of previo... | 131 |
fomc | 2,002 | Governor Bernanke. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I can support waiting for more information. I'm a little uncertain and confused about the role of geopolitical concerns in the statement. We don't want to tie ourselves to saying that we would act only if certain geopolitical events occur. In particular, if the sluggishness continues but the issue of Iraq... | 69 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'm merely stipulating my view that, if the corporate governance issue and the geopolitical risks were somehow removed, several things would happen. The extraordinary pulling back by the corporate community started with the corporate governance issue, whose effect has been very evident and acknowledged by business cont... | 423 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, I appreciate your analysis. I'm just wondering how you're going to get all of that in the statement! [Laughter] | 28 |
fomc | 2,002 | I wrote it in disappearing ink! | 7 |
fomc | 2,002 | May I make a comment? | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 2,002 | I think there's a little confusion about what we mean when we're talking about the importance of geopolitical events. It's not as if we mean that a geopolitical event is, say, that we start bombing Iraq three or four weeks from now. Maybe we will, and maybe we won't. Rather, the point is what the geopolitical environme... | 95 |
fomc | 2,002 | If somebody could tell me that we were going to invade Iraq tomorrow, the uncertainty would disappear. Look, our experience with the Gulf War is that the maximum negative effects of the Gulf War occurred immediately subsequent to the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. It dissolved after the first two or three months, but it w... | 68 |
fomc | 2,002 | Are we ready to vote? | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | We're ready to vote. Would you read the appropriate statement, Mr. Secretary? | 16 |
fomc | 2,002 | I'll be reading from page 13 of the Bluebook: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent wit... | 128 |
fomc | 2,002 | Call the roll please. | 5 |
fomc | 2,002 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Bernanke Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich No President Jordan Yes Governor Kohn Yes President McTeer No Governor Olson Yes President Santomero Yes President Stern Yes | 49 |
fomc | 2,002 | Okay. Would you distribute the proposed language of the press statement? | 13 |
fomc | 2,002 | All this silence suggests agreement. | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | People haven't read it yet! | 6 |
fomc | 2,002 | They read fast. | 4 |
fomc | 2,002 | What we have tried to do in the statement, basically, is to capture the tone of this meeting and to relate it to the previous statement. As you can see, it's restructured from the August statement, but the only thing that's new in it is the reference to geopolitical risks. Is this okay with everybody as it stands? Let ... | 110 |
fomc | 2,002 | Not the reasons but what the dissenter would have preferred to do. | 14 |
fomc | 2,002 | The direction of the policy they would prefer. | 9 |
fomc | 2,002 | Yes, of course, that's right. It's the direction they would have preferred. But I think we all agreed that discussion of those dissents by the dissenters would be inappropriate. The reasons for any dissent would be written subsequently in the minutes of the meeting, which will come out, as you know, immediately after t... | 173 |
fomc | 2,002 | Mr. Chairman, may I just say one word about this phrase "owing in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks"? Is this committing us to take a policy action based on something that is happening outside of the United States? | 46 |
fomc | 2,002 | No. | 2 |
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