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fomc
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Thank you very much. Mr. Reinhart.
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2 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. With the help of the first exhibit in the material distributed at the break, I want to begin by pointing out several notable features in financial markets over the past six weeks likely bearing on your policy deliberations. As shown by the solid line in the top left panel, short-term interest...
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Thank you. Questions for Vincent?
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I see that you made a slight change in B5 where the proposed language is "to be roughly equal" as opposed to "are roughly equal."
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That was at the suggestion of the house grammarian, who complained about the wording in the August and previous meeting statements.
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Okay. So that really is unchanged, so to speak, from the current statement? I was reading it and wondering, What am I reading here?
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I don't think my maneuverings are that subtle! [Laughter]
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One never knows. Another change, which I had submitted as a suggestion and I guess no one likes it but I'll raise it anyway, is whether or not we want to make B6 look more like A6 by referring to sustainable growth as well as maintaining price stability. Now, maybe I should leave that to the Chairman to recommend. That...
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I would note that some market analysts have pointed to such a possible inclusion as an explicit signal that policy will pause.
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We would stop?
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Yes. So that would have more import than just aligning the statement to the goals in the Federal Reserve Act. It would be taken as a market signal.
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Okay. I sort of figured that, but I also thought that might not be a bad thing. But, again, that's a subject for our discussion a few minutes from now.
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Further questions? If not, let me make just a few short remarks. The general outlook, as best I can judge, has been fairly well described around this table, and I don't have anything significant to add. I do want to respond in a way to President Minehan's last remark. The only thing that I think should be, and probably...
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Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation for increasing the intended funds rate by 25 basis points and for the statement as written. I'm reminded of something my mother used to say when I was a child. I grew up in a family of four children with lots of cousins around, and she would often say, "Children are to be see...
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Governor Bernanke.
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I support the recommendation.
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President Moskow.
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I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.
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President Stern.
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I, too, support your recommendation, and I would largely echo Bill Poole's remarks.
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President Hoenig.
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I support the recommendation and the press release.
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President Minehan.
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I support your recommendation as to the policy change. I take your point about the language of the statement. As I said in my comments--and other people have mentioned it as well--the big unknown is how much employment is going to grow. I certainly hope your predictions are on the mark. I'm rooting for us to be success...
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Let me put it this way, if the Greenbook projections actually turn out to be right, that would be extraordinary.
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Oh, yes. I'll buy the Greenbook employment projections.
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President Lacker.
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I support your recommendation, particularly about the last sentence of the statement.
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President Pianalto.
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I support your recommendation.
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President Santomero.
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I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.
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Governor Kohn.
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I support your recommendations, Mr. Chairman. I think the current structure of rates is close enough to what we need, and I would hesitate to do something that would cause a lot of fluctuations in expectations. If we get to the point in November or December where we pause, I think rates will go down. It will trigger so...
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Governor Ferguson.
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I support your recommendation. I would note that if we get to the end of this year and feel we have to take a pause then, we actually may want some of that refinancing if that's going to help consumers. So let's not be afraid of getting all the help we can get to keep the economy growing as long as inflation is under c...
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Vice Chair.
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I support the recommendation.
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Governor Olson.
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I support the recommendation.
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President Yellen.
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I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman.
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President McTeer.
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I support it.
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President Guynn.
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I support it as well.
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Governor Bies.
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I support it.
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Mr. Secretary, will you read the appropriate language?
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I support it, too--even though you didn't care! [Laughter]
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Sorry, I didn't mean to skip you. I realize that silence would not have been your position.
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Let me begin with the directive wording, which is on page 15 of the Bluebook: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions i...
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Call the roll.
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Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman Geithner Yes Governor Bernanke Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes Governor Kohn Yes President Minehan Yes Governor Olson Yes President Pianalto Yes President Poole Yes
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Vincent Reinhart, you wanted to mention something about the minutes?
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I just wanted to give a quick report on the experiment with the expedited minutes. Once again, we got the Committee to indicate its inclination to approve the minutes in time to meet our deadline. That is, we would have been able to publish the minutes two and a half weeks after the August meeting. Once again, it was a...
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Not at the moment. I want to put the FOMC meeting on pause, as we like to say, and ask that the Board members proceed to my office.
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Let me mention that, as soon as the Board members come back, there will be a picture-taking session. And unless there is a change in plans, you will be asked to move to that end of the room.
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When is this? Today?
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Yes, before lunch. [Recess]
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Would everyone be seated please? I would like to report that by unanimous vote the Board of Governors accepted the requests of the twelve Reserve Banks for an increase of 1/4 percentage point in the discount rate--much to everybody's surprise! As we close today, I would like to take a moment to recognize and to thank t...
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Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. [Applause] Well, this is a surprise. I don't know what to say. Obviously, I've stayed on about a dozen years beyond the time when I could have retired because I liked the work. I joined the FOMC Secretariat in 1968 and have enjoyed the experience immensely ever since. I've especially ...
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Good morning, everyone. Welcome, Madam Acting President. It's a pleasure to have you here.
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Thank you very much.
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And we welcome Debbie Danker, an old Fed veteran. You were here when I arrived originally. Lord knows how long you were here to begin with! [Laughter] Anyway, welcome back, and we wish you well.
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Thank you.
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Incidentally, for those of you who don't have it on your calendar, our farewell luncheon for Bob McTeer is planned for after the next meeting. I just wanted to make you all aware of that. Would somebody like to move approval of the minutes of the September 21 meeting?
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So moved.
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Without objection, they are approved. Officially we need to select Deborah J. Danker as Deputy Secretary to serve until the election of a successor at the first meeting of the Committee after December 31, 2004. Would somebody like to move that nomination?
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I'll move that nomination.
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Without objection, that is approved. Dino Kos, you are on.
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1 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll be referring to the charts circulated a short time ago. During the intermeeting period, asset prices traded largely in the ranges we have seen for most of the year, though certain trends were maintained, particularly the continued flattening of the yield curve, the narrowing of spreads, ...
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Why don't you do that?
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Shall we do that now?
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Yes, why don't you get it out of the way?
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Okay, fine. At the last meeting, the Committee asked Vincent and me to be a "committee of two" to review how the Desk operates during a period when the market strongly expects the Committee to change the target fed funds rate. I should say that most of the work was conducted by Spence Hilton, who is sitting to my left,...
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Let me just say up front, since I was the one who raised the issue originally, that I thought you reviewed it quite effectively, and I personally concur with the position that you've come to. With respect to the TIPS ten-year rate, the oil price has had a very unusual effect on it over the years, and one of the reasons...
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I know I haven't done it.
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It's something that we regularly do, Mr. Chairman.
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You take the long-term forecast?
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We take the structure of WTI futures rates, use the 6 percent weight in the overall CPI and apply it to the non-seasonally-adjusted figure, and then subtract off to get a measure of the core.
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You don't take the crude price? You take the crude plus markup, I assume. Is that what you're saying?
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Yes.
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In that context, how would this very latest run-up since the end of October look?
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Well, one thing I would note is that because of the backwardation of the futures curve, it's in fact--
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It's lower, but it's less lower than--
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Yes. So you have the two effects. You have the spot effect of the whole futures curve shifting up, which gives you the immediate increase in inflation compensation, but you also have the forecasted subsequent decline, which actually subtracts from it.
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And because the spot prices have moved so dramatically, though the spreads have not changed all that much, there has been a significant closing of the percentage gap in prices even though the absolute gap has opened up.
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Right.
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I was curious how all that turns out because it's pretty evident that the ten-year TIPS compensation is giving us a quite significantly different reading. And it would be useful to know whether or not it's merely a statistical issue--with one based on core inflation and the other based on the total CPI--or if there's s...
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I would make two observations. One is that I haven't actually seen the time series. My recollection is that it's only a couple of points in the intermeeting period. It's not a large number--on the order of 10 to 15 basis points. The second point is that five-to-ten-year forward inflation compensation is actually lower....
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It's terribly important for us to get judgments on what the TIPS is showing. We can always talk about its liquidity or say that it's X or Y. Some day we'll look back and say that the TIPS market was giving us signals and we had too many excuses as to why we weren't looking at it.
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When we look at these special factors, which included the smaller-than-expected auction and the change in oil futures prices, it really is hard to get those special factors as a large component in the parsing. It's on the order of 10 basis points out of the 40 basis point rise.
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I think that's useful to know.
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We took some consolation from the fact that the five-to-ten-year forward inflation compensation really just moved sideways. And the ten-year forward rate, given the flattening in the term structure that Dino noted, basically also moved sideways.
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Questions for Dino either on the presentation or on Vincent and Dino's conclusions with respect to the discussion we had last time? Governor Kohn.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I completely agree with Dino's conclusion and your assent that what we've been doing in the conduct of open market operations is about right. The Desk is protesting enough to make it clear that Dino isn't prejudging the outcome of the FOMC meeting but is trying to keep reserves from getting so ...
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Let's stay on the subject. Are you on this subject?
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Yes, I was going to stay on this subject. It's always a pleasure to echo Don. I don't know that I fully internalize Fed doctrine on imbalances and exchange rate policy and things like that, but let me just say something from the perspective of my previous life. I always had the sense sitting there in my position at the...
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Let me just say that we have a very delicate problem to deal with. Being involved with monetary policy and, indeed, by tying monetary policy as we do to the global environment, we can't make believe that the current account deficit is irrelevant. And we can't basically argue that it will essentially adjust without mark...
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