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fomc | 2,004 | I support the two parts of your recommendation, Mr. Chairman. I think alternative B' is preferable to B. I appreciate your observation on the diversity around the table, and I think President Poole is correct that it's because each of us has a wider distribution in our heads regarding what is likely to happen. We're ju... | 167 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support the recommendation of B'. It seems to me that there is no need to change the language, at least at this point, because I think market participants understand the conditional nature of what's going on here. So in that sense, I think we're positioned rather well. I remain open as to whe... | 94 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation to increase the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. On the language question, I think it is time to start moving away from the term "measured." It has worked well--quite frankly, better than I thought it would. I was concerned about it when we started using a series of forward... | 189 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Bernanke. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support both parts of your recommendation. I have just two comments. One is that I think you overstate a bit the idea that the current funds rate is outside the range of historical experience. As President Poole noted, it's not so unusual in real terms-- | 60 |
fomc | 2,004 | I'm sorry--I was referring to the 1 percent. | 12 |
fomc | 2,004 | Oh, the 1 percent, okay. I don't think there's a basis to move just on an allergy to a 2 percent funds rate; I think it should be based on the data and on the economy. I would just note additionally that the economy responds most directly to overall financial conditions, and there I don't think we're anywhere close to ... | 235 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support both parts of your recommendation, raising the funds rate and keeping the statement essentially as it was last time. I also hope we reconsider the language in December. To some extent I may have a different focus than some others who want to do that. I hope we leave open the possibili... | 293 |
fomc | 2,004 | I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the cost of a mistake in policy is skewed, which is a different statement. I'm acknowledging that the probability distribution is symmetrical on the outcome of the event, but the cost-benefit analysis on a mistake is not. | 52 |
fomc | 2,004 | Perhaps. I think there is a cost to being too high as well as being too low. | 19 |
fomc | 2,004 | Absolutely. | 2 |
fomc | 2,004 | Maybe the cost of being too high is that we have a more sluggish economy with fewer people put back to work and too low an inflation rate if some of these upside risks to inflation don't occur. So I think there are costs on both sides here. If we take out "measured," I hope we give some sense, even if it's a balance of... | 134 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Pianalto. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also am in strong agreement with your recommendations both to increase the fed funds rate and on the statement. My thinking on how we would remove our accommodation has evolved over the past few months, along the line that President Poole has already articulated, and I'm just not certain when... | 111 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also support both parts of the recommendation. With respect to the statement, I also think it is appropriate at this time to make as little change in the statement as is necessary, for a couple of reasons. First of all, the markets understand that the absence of change is not a result of inat... | 193 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, including the language. | 13 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation, including the language, for this meeting, but I do share some of the concerns that several of my colleagues around the table have expressed. I think some of the language may not be seen as particularly consistent with our policy of improved communications. If the ... | 324 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Lacker. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | I agree with your proposal, Mr. Chairman, about raising the rate and about the statement. My own sense is that the funds rate is more likely to lie on the path of the market's forecast than that in the Greenbook, and I don't think it's the right time to pull down the yield curve. With regard to our statement, I agree w... | 102 |
fomc | 2,004 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | I support your recommendations. I wish I knew what I thought about the desired statement! [Laughter] I would just point out not only that the market now expects us to slow the pace of increase significantly from what we've been doing but also that the minutes from our last meeting have some nice artful language near th... | 140 |
fomc | 2,004 | You may be the only one! [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 2,004 | Are you volunteering to be the chairman of a committee to look at that issue? Do you want to make a statement, Ms. Holcomb? | 29 |
fomc | 2,004 | Well, I thought maybe my silence could serve as assent, but I do support your recommendation. And our expectation is that there will be a need for pause and that at the next meeting the language might need to be changed. | 45 |
fomc | 2,004 | Would you read the appropriate language? | 7 |
fomc | 2,004 | This is from page 13 of the Bluebook, on the directive: "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets cons... | 167 |
fomc | 2,004 | Call the roll, please. | 6 |
fomc | 2,004 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman Geithner Yes Governor Bernanke Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes Governor Gramlich Yes President Hoenig Yes Governor Kohn Yes President Minehan Yes Governor Olson Yes President Pianalto Yes President Poole Yes | 49 |
fomc | 2,004 | I want to confirm that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, December 14. Before adjourning, the FOMC will go into recess while the Board members join me in my office to discuss discount rate requests. [Recess] | 52 |
fomc | 2,004 | The Federal Reserve Board has just voted to raise the discount rate at the request of ten of the Reserve Banks. This FOMC meeting is now adjourned. | 33 |
fomc | 2,004 | Good morning, everyone. Normally, when I ask approval of the minutes, they are in the same form as the draft sent to you earlier. I just wanted to indicate that there is a change since that earlier communication, and that is the addition of the notation vote by the Committee authorizing President Santomero to accept th... | 110 |
fomc | 2,004 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Second. | 2 |
fomc | 2,004 | Without objection, they are approved. Dino Kos. | 10 |
fomc | 2,004 | 1 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. With the outcome of this meeting firmly priced into markets, the intermeeting period was characterized by more than usual attention to exchange rate developments. Dollar sentiment was bearish for most of the period, and thus the market was caught offside by last week's sudden appreciation. Th... | 2,111 |
fomc | 2,004 | With respect to the direct net currency shipments abroad, recently I have seen reconciliations between other techniques that endeavor to get to the aggregate amount of currency held abroad and the direct currency shipments. Are those other techniques indicating much the same story? I presume, with the growth of currenc... | 91 |
fomc | 2,004 | I believe so. But as I said, we don't see the currency that leaves the country--or that can come back in--by other means. There seems to be a correlation between the middle panel and the bottom panel, but again, there is a lot of slippage because of other ways currency can leave the country. But I have not seen a firm ... | 74 |
fomc | 2,004 | The way we estimate foreign holdings from the stock of currency is not a bad technique. Indeed, as I recall, the several different measures yield roughly the same result. So, the implication is that the net change in that estimated stock less the direct shipments is, indeed, a presumed "other" component plus statistica... | 77 |
fomc | 2,004 | I can't say that I can tell you. | 9 |
fomc | 2,004 | I don't have that either, Mr. Chairman, but I would note that our estimates of growth in foreign-held currency are actually still somewhat larger for this year than for domestic currency, despite the negative net shipments that Dino referred to. For instance, we are projecting that foreign currency is growing about 63/... | 83 |
fomc | 2,004 | So that suggests that there's an unexplained significant residual. On the IMM traders report, to what extent are the net long and short positions useful in anticipating changes in rates? My presumption is that, historically, if there was a relationship, it disappeared as soon as somebody observed it. What are the facts... | 62 |
fomc | 2,004 | We actually did some work on this. Bob, do you remember the paper that we did a few years ago? | 23 |
fomc | 2,004 | I think the basic conclusion there was that those data do seem to have some predictive power, but they are released with such a long lag that they are not useful for traders on a real-time basis. | 40 |
fomc | 2,004 | But there is other evidence that does suggest that, when everybody becomes absolutely committed to the view that a currency is going to move in one direction or the other, one can always make money on the other side of that transaction. At least that's my recollection of history. But I guess since nobody knows what the... | 74 |
fomc | 2,004 | People do use these data sometimes as a contrary indicator--for the very reasons that you note. | 19 |
fomc | 2,004 | But if they do see a relationship, it disappears. | 11 |
fomc | 2,004 | That's the risk. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Other questions for Dino? | 5 |
fomc | 2,004 | With the possible exception of these positions vis-a-vis the dollar, there seem to be a remarkable number of indications--spreads are narrower, the yield curve is flatter, and so forth--that suggest that market participants see less risk. Yet the risks seem to be out there. We hear people talking about that all the tim... | 139 |
fomc | 2,004 | Yes. The short answer is yes. They have observed--especially over the last year --any number of things that should have and did create uncertainty. Yet there was this dichotomy where volatilities were low and spreads were low. So yes, there has been this dichotomy, and people talked about it. There's a certain amount o... | 95 |
fomc | 2,004 | Yes. A couple of people I talked to in the investment world characterized the situation as a sort of tight equilibrium that was balanced off against risk on both sides. They approach it with a sense of unease because they view it as not necessarily stable. | 50 |
fomc | 2,004 | Any further comments or questions? If not, would somebody like to move to ratify the domestic open market operations? | 23 |
fomc | 2,004 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Without objection, they are approved. We move on to Dave Stockton. | 14 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In brief, the news that we have received since the completion of the November Greenbook five weeks ago has been supportive of the view that the economy has been growing modestly above trend and will likely continue to do so into next year. Indeed, both the incoming data on economic activity and... | 2,929 |
fomc | 2,004 | At this time of year, when persons old and young are looking for tangible evidence of whether they have been naughty or nice during the past twelve months, I cannot resist taking joy in pointing out that some force, perhaps from the North Pole, has given the forecasters in the International Division the opportunity to ... | 1,573 |
fomc | 2,004 | Dave, you put down finger-crossing as a serious econometric technique. I want to communicate that in my experience the t-value is quite high. [Laughter] | 34 |
fomc | 2,004 | I'm so glad to hear that. [Laughter] | 11 |
fomc | 2,004 | Questions for our colleagues? You realize that, if there are no questions, this is a historic occasion! [Laughter] Hearing none, who would like to start our discussion? President Moskow. | 40 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since we're making history today, the Seventh District's economy continued to firm, and the strength appears broad-based. Our business contacts again report increasing production, strong new orders, and growing backlogs. Labor market conditions are improving, although they're still not robust. ... | 690 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My contacts are essentially saying that they could just replay the tape from our November conversations. The situation is not much changed; the outlook remains pretty favorable. Let me comment particularly on some evidence on demand in the labor market. When I was talking to my contacts at the ... | 669 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the District is expanding at a moderately strong pace, closely mirroring that in the nation. Housing markets remain especially robust, and consumer spending at stores and on travel is solid. The high volume of international trade flowing through the District has resulted in... | 1,157 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the Third District continues to expand at a moderate pace. Reports from our manufacturers have been mostly positive. Our November business outlook survey (BOS) index of general activity stood at 20.7, which was down slightly from October. However, the index in our December ... | 1,408 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The meetings with our Sixth District boards of directors were particularly timely this cycle, just concluding at the end of last week. I would note three issues and impressions that came from those discussions. First, the directors' general outlook for the economy was decidedly positive and mor... | 974 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. New England's economy continues to improve at a reasonable pace. Employment is growing, and all states report job levels above those of a year ago. Unemployment dropped sharply in the region in September and maintained a rate about 1 percentage point below that of the nation in October as well,... | 1,314 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Pianalto. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to start my comments this morning with a somewhat troubling statistic, and that is that the PNC Bank's Twelve Days of Christmas price index jumped 2.4 percent. It has been reported that a surge in French hen prices more than offset a modest drop in the cost of turtle doves. [Laughter] If... | 824 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Hoenig. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Mr. Chairman, let me start briefly with my reaction to the national economy where I think, as discussed in the Greenbook, growth remains above trend and, barring unexpected events, is likely to remain above trend for the next couple of years. If this is correct, we will gradually approach our long-run potential GDP. Mo... | 1,150 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Lacker. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Fifth District economy continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent weeks. Our service firms reported solid growth in revenues over the last two months, while retailers told us that sales have been flat. In particular, big ticket sales remain weak, and car sales are said to be soft. Dis... | 748 |
fomc | 2,004 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Comments from directors and from a wide range of contacts indicate further improvement in the District economy--indeed some acceleration recently--and the improvement is quite broadly based. Given that, let me just comment on a couple of developments that seem particularly relevant. There have ... | 476 |
fomc | 2,004 | First Vice President Holcomb. | 6 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since the last meeting, there is more evidence that the Texas recovery is solidly on track. October employment growth was the strongest since the end of last year, and the most recent Beige Book confirms increased optimism in the business community. This tone of optimism was reinforced by comme... | 904 |
fomc | 2,004 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'm overwhelmed, as always, by the intelligence and imagination of the staff, [laughter] and I don't have too much to add. Our view of the outlook hasn't changed much since our last meeting, and we're very close to the Greenbook on most dimensions of the forecast. The sentiment in New York seem... | 684 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As the Greenbook noted, the news on actual and prospective demand since the last meeting has been mostly on the positive side. Consumption has proven surprisingly, at least to me, resilient to higher energy prices, supported by rising housing and equity wealth and continued low intermediate- an... | 1,510 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Ferguson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The incoming data have provided sufficient reason for the staff to raise the baseline forecast. Real consumer spending, excluding motor vehicles, has increased at a solid pace of late, and yesterday's retail sales report reinforces the notion that households are still ready to propel the econom... | 1,155 |
fomc | 2,004 | Why don't we break for coffee at this time. | 10 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Bernanke. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall, the intermeeting data suggest a pickup in the pace of the expansion in output and employment, with fewer downside risks to growth. Inflation risks have also moved slightly to the upside, I think, but falling oil prices help to make any really significant increase in inflation unlikely.... | 870 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Gramlich. | 4 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There has been much discussion lately of our measured pace. Are we slavishly raising the funds rate 25 points per meeting or following some other strategy? Frankly, it is hard to think about this question without knowing where we are ultimately going. Many seem to feel that our ultimate target ... | 1,270 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,004 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There are two perspectives that I'd like to add, one from the banking community and the other a follow-up on the fiscal issue. If I were to compare the discussions I've had with bankers on what they see in the economy to the comments that I've heard around the room, I'd say there is a notable d... | 814 |
fomc | 2,004 | Governor Bies has laryngitis, as I'm sure you're all aware, and Debbie Danker will read her prepared statement. MS. BIES (as read by Ms. Danker). The aspect of the economy that I want to focus on is the improving outlook for consumer spending. After a significant slowing in the second quarter, real consumer spending gr... | 389 |
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