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10200 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
6 insurrection—an event unseen for centuries in American politics. Then there’s the first major European ground war since World War II in Ukraine, not to mention market crashes in 2008 and 202... |
10201 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As the first digitally native generation, Gen Z is experiencing it all through videos, images, and articles online, which is shaping their mental health, workplace attitudes, and financial hab... |
10202 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
It’s no wonder, this Gen Z reporter notes, that 46% of young workers ages 18 to 26 say that they are regularly so distraught over what is happening in the news that they are unable to function... |
10203 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with i... |
10204 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with i... |
10205 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers... |
10206 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s... |
10207 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years... |
10208 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of ... |
10209 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings... |
10210 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings... |
10211 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them wa... |
10212 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental he... |
10213 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by th... |
10214 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, accordi... |
10215 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, accordi... |
10216 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with tempe... |
10217 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with tempe... |
10218 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wil... |
10219 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wil... |
10220 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extr... |
10221 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation bef... |
10222 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, f... |
10223 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk... |
10224 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk... |
10225 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”... |
10226 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, whi... |
10227 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older cow... |
10228 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older cow... |
10229 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget... |
10230 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July. It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’... |
10231 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, a... |
10232 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent ... |
10233 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a for... |
10234 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a for... |
10235 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t... |
10236 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived ... |
10237 | Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived ... |
10238 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large ... |
10239 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large ... |
10240 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate... |
10241 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty.
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past c... |
10242 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates... |
10243 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial... |
10244 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and... |
10245 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and... |
10246 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic p... |
10247 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for furthe... |
10248 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy s... |
10249 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming c... |
10250 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiati... |
10251 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
For decades, researchers assumed that global mean radiative feedbacks mostly depend on global mean tempera... |
10252 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
However, they also depend on the spatial pattern of surface warming: Much like applying a force uniformly over someone’s entire body will elicit a very different reaction than tickling the soles of that person’s feet, a degree of global warming spread out evenl... |
10253 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A wide variety of processes affect the evolution of surface temperature, from greenhouse gas forcing and regional aerosol forcing to natural oscillations involving the ocean and atmosphere to the continental boundary conditions and the extent of ice sheets and ... |
10254 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and... |
10255 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and... |
10256 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong ... |
10257 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong ... |
10258 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft an... |
10259 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of c... |
10260 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the ... |
10261 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface ... |
10262 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical region... |
10263 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–... |
10264 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure,... |
10265 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, ... |
10266 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, ... |
10267 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate cha... |
10268 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g.... |
10269 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason for this underestimation is indeed... |
10270 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The second strand related the idea of constant feedbacks to the efforts of estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical record, as mentioned above. Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with th... |
10271 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with the observed surface warming pattern over the past couple of decades imply less warming than those from model simulations with a fully interactive ocean, which have the... |
10272 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The third strand of research came from oceanography, showing that the atmospheric cooling effect of ocean heat uptake differs depending on where it occurs: One unit of ocean heat uptake in high latitudes cools Earth more effectively than the same unit taken up ... |
10273 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [W... |
10274 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [W... |
10275 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupl... |
10276 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current conse... |
10277 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current conse... |
10278 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium ... |
10279 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitiv... |
10280 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record ... |
10281 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record ... |
10282 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surfa... |
10283 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the obs... |
10284 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain. The current best estimate is that the radiative feedback or damping under idealized, long-term carbon dioxide forcing is 0.5 ± 0.5 watt per square meter p... |
10285 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about i... |
10286 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about i... |
10287 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves. The other end of the uncertainty range implies that the pattern effect might have been negligible ove... |
10288 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how cloud... |
10289 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how cloud... |
10290 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other wor... |
10291 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other wor... |
10292 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution. Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (pos... |
10293 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes. Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative ... |
10294 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the plane... |
10295 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must accou... |
10296 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The LGM currently provides the best constraint on the upper bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020], and hence, the details of the pattern effect matter greatly.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the p... |
10297 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also hav... |
10298 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also have learned that radiative feedbacks depend on global mean temperature itself: Warming Earth by 1 K from the LGM emphasizes different feedbacks (e.g., the sea ice albedo feedback) than warming... |
10299 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern effect and the feedback temperature dependence add uncertainties to estimates of climate sensitivity based on the paleorecord, but quantifying their effects would make these records more relevant to constraining climate sensitivity and expected futu... |
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