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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
6 insurrection—an event unseen for centuries in American politics. Then there’s the first major European ground war since World War II in Ukraine, not to mention market crashes in 2008 and 2020 that recall the Great Depression itself. As the first digitally native generation, Gen Z is experiencing it all through videos, images, and articles online, which is shaping their mental health, workplace attitudes, and financial habits in visible ways.
It’s no wonder, this Gen Z reporter notes, that 46% of young workers ages 18 to 26 say that they are regularly so distraught over what is happening in the news that they are unable to function at work, according to a 2023 Edelman report. By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As the first digitally native generation, Gen Z is experiencing it all through videos, images, and articles online, which is shaping their mental health, workplace attitudes, and financial habits in visible ways.
It’s no wonder, this Gen Z reporter notes, that 46% of young workers ages 18 to 26 say that they are regularly so distraught over what is happening in the news that they are unable to function at work, according to a 2023 Edelman report. By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
It’s no wonder, this Gen Z reporter notes, that 46% of young workers ages 18 to 26 say that they are regularly so distraught over what is happening in the news that they are unable to function at work, according to a 2023 Edelman report. By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
By comparison, 38% of millennials, 24% of Gen Xers, and 19% of baby boomers and older generations say the same.
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Everything about their behavior communicates that Gen Z is just not okay with it. This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This ranges from their widespread, hell-bent determination to find purpose in work and pushing their employers to have a social conscience, to a sense of despair over their own and the world’s future finances. They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
They have largely given up on saving money and instead dish out for little “treats” as a way to cope with the larger absurdity of 21st-century life.
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Consider the lifetime that was three years ago, as Gen Z emerged into young adulthood, when online videos of the murder of George Floyd shook the country in May 2020, resulting in a summer of violent Black Lives Matter protests and riots. A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
A year later, people watched as armed right-wing extremists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, following the election defeat of former President Donald Trump. Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Then there are school shootings, which have only increased in frequency since Columbine in 1999, with more students documenting the terror on their phones and sharing it online. One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of them was the Parkland shooting of 2018, which tragically created the first spokespeople of the post-millennial generation.
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Gen Z’s mental health
Gen Z has the worst reported mental health of any generation—45% of young people report having “excellent” or “very good” mental health, according to a 2018 report by the American Psychological Association.
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One of the major sources of Gen Z’s distress, of course, is climate change. Nearly seven in 10 Gen Zers say they experience anxiety when viewing climate change content on social media, according to a 2021 Pew Research report. But they’re not just reading about the detrimental effects of human-caused global warming, they’re living through the consequences themselves.
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
This summer reached record-breaking temperatures, with July being the hottest month the planet has seen in over 100,000 years. As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
As a result, Arizona experienced a monthlong heat wave with temperatures at or above 110 degrees every day. Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Deadly fires broke out across the Mediterranean; suffocating smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed New York City and the Northeast for days; and ice melt in the Arctic accelerated.
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And extreme heat is likely here to stay—and get worse—unless countries can rapidly reduce their carbon emissions. That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
That’s why Gen Z is more concerned with sustainability than any generation before them. Just look at Greta Thunberg: The 20-year-old has become one of the best-known environmental activists, famously speaking at the United Nations in 2019 with scathing words for world leaders:
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, which encompasses their companies taking accountability for their sustainability and environmental impacts, providing education and awareness for social issues, and ensuring diverse and inclusive boards and teams.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, which encompasses their companies taking accountability for their sustainability and environmental impacts, providing education and awareness for social issues, and ensuring diverse and inclusive boards and teams.
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And yet I’m one of the lucky ones,” Thunberg said. “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, which encompasses their companies taking accountability for their sustainability and environmental impacts, providing education and awareness for social issues, and ensuring diverse and inclusive boards and teams.
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”
Gen Z in the workplace
By 2030, Gen Z will account for nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, which encompasses their companies taking accountability for their sustainability and environmental impacts, providing education and awareness for social issues, and ensuring diverse and inclusive boards and teams.
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget, Gen Zers have also lived through a global pandemic that shuttered the world for nearly two years, two recessions, and a mounting student debt crisis, leaving them with little savings but an abundance of financial despair.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
workforce, but they’re already radically redefining the meaning of work.
Gen Zers want a sense of purpose, so they prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) in the workplace, which encompasses their companies taking accountability for their sustainability and environmental impacts, providing education and awareness for social issues, and ensuring diverse and inclusive boards and teams.
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget, Gen Zers have also lived through a global pandemic that shuttered the world for nearly two years, two recessions, and a mounting student debt crisis, leaving them with little savings but an abundance of financial despair.
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget, Gen Zers have also lived through a global pandemic that shuttered the world for nearly two years, two recessions, and a mounting student debt crisis, leaving them with little savings but an abundance of financial despair.
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July. It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And it tracks: Roughly two-thirds of Gen Zers say they frequently speak about important societal issues while at work, according to the Edelman report. They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget, Gen Zers have also lived through a global pandemic that shuttered the world for nearly two years, two recessions, and a mounting student debt crisis, leaving them with little savings but an abundance of financial despair.
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July. It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent “psychological scars,” one expert says.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
They’re also influencing their older coworkers when it comes to areas like work-life balance, fair pay, and employers’ involvement on social issues.
Gen Z’s financial stress
But don’t forget, Gen Zers have also lived through a global pandemic that shuttered the world for nearly two years, two recessions, and a mounting student debt crisis, leaving them with little savings but an abundance of financial despair.
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July. It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent “psychological scars,” one expert says.
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Roughly 60% of Gen Zers say they are stressed about money this year more than last year, according to a Bankrate survey from July. It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent “psychological scars,” one expert says.
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
It’s no surprise either—85% of Gen Zers say that they couldn’t afford one month’s expenses if they lost their job today.
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent “psychological scars,” one expert says.
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
And since young people are typically affected by inflation the most, as they are the most likely to work part-time or low-paying jobs, this economic climate may have left Gen Z with permanent “psychological scars,” one expert says.
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived through the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
“How can young people build careers or wealth if they don’t have jobs, and prices of goods and services continue to increase?” Dayo Abinusawa, founder of London’s Awa Business School and a former lecturer at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, previously told Fortune.
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived through the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War. But no other generation has been plugged into the world through the internet from such a young age like Gen Z.
Gen Z is already wielding their power in notable and sometimes comical ways.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
One Fidelity survey backs this argument: 45% of 18- to 35-year-olds “don’t see a point in saving until things return to normal.” Some Gen Zers have even adopted the mentality that “money isn’t real” and are justifying spending on items to “treat themselves” amid a bleak reality.
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived through the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War. But no other generation has been plugged into the world through the internet from such a young age like Gen Z.
Gen Z is already wielding their power in notable and sometimes comical ways. In June 2020, teenage TikTok users (with the help of K-pop fans) claimed to have sunk a Trump campaign rally by registering for thousands of tickets with no intention of actually attending.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived through the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War. But no other generation has been plugged into the world through the internet from such a young age like Gen Z.
Gen Z is already wielding their power in notable and sometimes comical ways. In June 2020, teenage TikTok users (with the help of K-pop fans) claimed to have sunk a Trump campaign rally by registering for thousands of tickets with no intention of actually attending. And last summer, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a then-19-year-old activist raised over $2 million in abortion funds by trolling Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.
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Gen Z just saw the worst war in Israel in 50 years break out all over the internet, but they were raised on 'disturbing images'
Why it matters
Of course, every generation has lived through era-defining historical events. Millennials remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Baby boomers lived through the civil rights movement and the Vietnam War. But no other generation has been plugged into the world through the internet from such a young age like Gen Z.
Gen Z is already wielding their power in notable and sometimes comical ways. In June 2020, teenage TikTok users (with the help of K-pop fans) claimed to have sunk a Trump campaign rally by registering for thousands of tickets with no intention of actually attending. And last summer, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a then-19-year-old activist raised over $2 million in abortion funds by trolling Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz.
It remains to be seen what they will do when Gen Z comes into decision-making positions in the workplace—perhaps they’ll channel their rage and cynicism effectively as some have already demonstrated—but Abinusawa warned that “a society where the young have little to no hope for the future is not a sustainable one.”
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty.
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
One of the grand challenges in climate science is to reduce uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, which quantifies how much Earth’s surface warms in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide relative to preindustrial levels. This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty.
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This uncertainty is large because climate sensitivity aggregates myriad processes, from microscale aerosol-cloud interactions to planetary-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations, into one number. Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty.
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Clouds, which are notoriously difficult to measure and simulate, are the main driver of the uncertainty.
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Various lines of evidence are used to estimate climate sensitivity, including climate model simulations of varying complexity, observations over the past century, proxies that measure climate change in the distant past, and theory. The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The likely range of estimates of climate sensitivity was stubbornly constant at a distressingly imprecise 1.5–4.5 K for several decades, but the research community’s efforts have recently chipped away at this range (Figure 1).
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm.
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10245
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Early in the 2010s, a substantial discrepancy was noted between estimates of climate sensitivity derived from climate models and estimates based on the observed warming record and radiative balance, the balance between incoming and reflected solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming causes changes in the climate system: The concentration of water vapor—a greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere increases, the spatial coverage of highly reflective snow and sea ice decreases, and cloud properties change.
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10246
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Estimates based on observed warming pointed to much lower values than those derived from models. A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming causes changes in the climate system: The concentration of water vapor—a greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere increases, the spatial coverage of highly reflective snow and sea ice decreases, and cloud properties change. These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
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10247
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A key breakthrough toward solving this conundrum has been the recognition of the pattern effect, the process whereby climate sensitivity depends on the geographic pattern of surface warming. This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming causes changes in the climate system: The concentration of water vapor—a greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere increases, the spatial coverage of highly reflective snow and sea ice decreases, and cloud properties change. These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This advance was rated as one of the most promising avenues for further constraining climate sensitivity in the future [Forster et al., 2021].
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming causes changes in the climate system: The concentration of water vapor—a greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere increases, the spatial coverage of highly reflective snow and sea ice decreases, and cloud properties change. These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
For decades, researchers assumed that global mean radiative feedbacks mostly depend on global mean temperature [Gregory et al., 2004].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Forcing, Feedbacks, and Climate Sweet Spots
Adding greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere leads to a global energy surplus (less terrestrial radiation escapes to space), referred to as forcing. To restore the energy balance, the planet must warm. But warming causes changes in the climate system: The concentration of water vapor—a greenhouse gas—in the atmosphere increases, the spatial coverage of highly reflective snow and sea ice decreases, and cloud properties change. These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
For decades, researchers assumed that global mean radiative feedbacks mostly depend on global mean temperature [Gregory et al., 2004]. However, they also depend on the spatial pattern of surface warming: Much like applying a force uniformly over someone’s entire body will elicit a very different reaction than tickling the soles of that person’s feet, a degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming were concentrated in a climate sweet spot (a location where surface warming produces efficient radiative damping).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
These and other radiative feedbacks amplify or dampen how much the planet warms in response to the forcing. Hence, for a given forcing, the feedbacks determine the climate sensitivity.
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
For decades, researchers assumed that global mean radiative feedbacks mostly depend on global mean temperature [Gregory et al., 2004]. However, they also depend on the spatial pattern of surface warming: Much like applying a force uniformly over someone’s entire body will elicit a very different reaction than tickling the soles of that person’s feet, a degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming were concentrated in a climate sweet spot (a location where surface warming produces efficient radiative damping).
A wide variety of processes affect the evolution of surface temperature, from greenhouse gas forcing and regional aerosol forcing to natural oscillations involving the ocean and atmosphere to the continental boundary conditions and the extent of ice sheets and sea ice.
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10251
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming is concentrated in a climate sweet spot.
For decades, researchers assumed that global mean radiative feedbacks mostly depend on global mean temperature [Gregory et al., 2004]. However, they also depend on the spatial pattern of surface warming: Much like applying a force uniformly over someone’s entire body will elicit a very different reaction than tickling the soles of that person’s feet, a degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming were concentrated in a climate sweet spot (a location where surface warming produces efficient radiative damping).
A wide variety of processes affect the evolution of surface temperature, from greenhouse gas forcing and regional aerosol forcing to natural oscillations involving the ocean and atmosphere to the continental boundary conditions and the extent of ice sheets and sea ice. The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
However, they also depend on the spatial pattern of surface warming: Much like applying a force uniformly over someone’s entire body will elicit a very different reaction than tickling the soles of that person’s feet, a degree of global warming spread out evenly will cause a different radiative response than if that same warming were concentrated in a climate sweet spot (a location where surface warming produces efficient radiative damping).
A wide variety of processes affect the evolution of surface temperature, from greenhouse gas forcing and regional aerosol forcing to natural oscillations involving the ocean and atmosphere to the continental boundary conditions and the extent of ice sheets and sea ice. The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A wide variety of processes affect the evolution of surface temperature, from greenhouse gas forcing and regional aerosol forcing to natural oscillations involving the ocean and atmosphere to the continental boundary conditions and the extent of ice sheets and sea ice. The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool.
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10254
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one.
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10255
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern of surface temperature change over the past 40 or so years featured a pronounced spatial structure, with some locations even cooling in spite of the global mean warming on the order of 1 K (Figure 2, bottom left).
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Fig. 2. At left is the surface and vertical structure of warming observed over the past few decades in the tropical Pacific. Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming.
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10258
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Strong warming in regions of deep convection such as the western Pacific is communicated throughout the troposphere and leads to strong warming aloft, enhancing radiative emission to space. In contrast, parts of the eastern Pacific have cooled. Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Warming aloft and cooling at the surface enhance the lower tropospheric inversion strengths in the eastern Pacific and promote extensive shallow cloud cover that reflects solar radiation and keeps Earth relatively cool. At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot. This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
At right is a typical representation of climate change simulated with coupled climate models, which create their own surface warming pattern that differs from the observed one. In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot. This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In coupled model simulations, warming aloft is less pronounced, and relative to the observed case, the lower tropospheric inversion strength is decreased, and cloud cover is reduced through time. Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot. This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Both factors lead to less efficient cooling near Earth’s surface in models than in nature.
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot. This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Feedbacks involving clouds and the atmospheric temperature structure are most sensitive to spatial differences in warming. Deep convection in the warmest tropical regions readily communicates surface conditions upward throughout the troposphere (up to about 10–15 kilometers) and then horizontally across much of the globe, making the western Pacific a climate sweet spot. This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate change.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This warmer air sitting atop the relatively cool waters in the eastern Pacific or Southern Ocean acts to stabilize the lowermost troposphere, allowing more extensive low-lying stratus and stratocumulus clouds to develop. Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate change. If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g., Gregory et al., 2004].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate change. If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g., Gregory et al., 2004]. When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Because of their location and structure, these low clouds efficiently cool the planet and offset some of the initial warming (Figure 2, top left).
Approaching the Problem from Different Angles
Three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from contributions from virtually all climate research communities.
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate change. If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g., Gregory et al., 2004]. When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason for this underestimation is indeed the evolution of the surface warming pattern, which initially emphasizes more stabilizing radiative feedbacks but later, during equilibration, emphasizes less stabilizing radiative feedbacks [e.g., Senior and Mitchell, 2000; Rugenstein et al., 2020].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Historically, three strands of research have highlighted the dependence of radiative feedbacks on the surface warming pattern. The first strand came from analyses of climate feedbacks and sensitivity in model simulations of unequilibrated, transient climate change. If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g., Gregory et al., 2004]. When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason for this underestimation is indeed the evolution of the surface warming pattern, which initially emphasizes more stabilizing radiative feedbacks but later, during equilibration, emphasizes less stabilizing radiative feedbacks [e.g., Senior and Mitchell, 2000; Rugenstein et al., 2020].
The second strand related the idea of constant feedbacks to the efforts of estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical record, as mentioned above.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
If feedbacks were constant, the expected equilibrium temperature change (climate sensitivity) could be estimated using a very simple energy balance model that linearly extrapolates the relationship between global temperature change and radiative imbalance [e.g., Gregory et al., 2004]. When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason for this underestimation is indeed the evolution of the surface warming pattern, which initially emphasizes more stabilizing radiative feedbacks but later, during equilibration, emphasizes less stabilizing radiative feedbacks [e.g., Senior and Mitchell, 2000; Rugenstein et al., 2020].
The second strand related the idea of constant feedbacks to the efforts of estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical record, as mentioned above. Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with the observed surface warming pattern over the past couple of decades imply less warming than those from model simulations with a fully interactive ocean, which have the freedom to create their own surface warming patterns [e.g., Gregory et al., 2020].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
When longer, fully equilibrated simulations became available, it became evident that the simple estimation methods assuming constant feedbacks systematically underestimate the actual equilibrium climate sensitivity. The reason for this underestimation is indeed the evolution of the surface warming pattern, which initially emphasizes more stabilizing radiative feedbacks but later, during equilibration, emphasizes less stabilizing radiative feedbacks [e.g., Senior and Mitchell, 2000; Rugenstein et al., 2020].
The second strand related the idea of constant feedbacks to the efforts of estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical record, as mentioned above. Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with the observed surface warming pattern over the past couple of decades imply less warming than those from model simulations with a fully interactive ocean, which have the freedom to create their own surface warming patterns [e.g., Gregory et al., 2020].
The third strand of research came from oceanography, showing that the atmospheric cooling effect of ocean heat uptake differs depending on where it occurs: One unit of ocean heat uptake in high latitudes cools Earth more effectively than the same unit taken up by the low-latitude oceans.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The second strand related the idea of constant feedbacks to the efforts of estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical record, as mentioned above. Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with the observed surface warming pattern over the past couple of decades imply less warming than those from model simulations with a fully interactive ocean, which have the freedom to create their own surface warming patterns [e.g., Gregory et al., 2020].
The third strand of research came from oceanography, showing that the atmospheric cooling effect of ocean heat uptake differs depending on where it occurs: One unit of ocean heat uptake in high latitudes cools Earth more effectively than the same unit taken up by the low-latitude oceans. This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [Winton et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Feedbacks calculated from observations or from atmosphere-only model simulations forced with the observed surface warming pattern over the past couple of decades imply less warming than those from model simulations with a fully interactive ocean, which have the freedom to create their own surface warming patterns [e.g., Gregory et al., 2020].
The third strand of research came from oceanography, showing that the atmospheric cooling effect of ocean heat uptake differs depending on where it occurs: One unit of ocean heat uptake in high latitudes cools Earth more effectively than the same unit taken up by the low-latitude oceans. This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [Winton et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021].
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the dynamics that set regional to global responses to external forcing.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The third strand of research came from oceanography, showing that the atmospheric cooling effect of ocean heat uptake differs depending on where it occurs: One unit of ocean heat uptake in high latitudes cools Earth more effectively than the same unit taken up by the low-latitude oceans. This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [Winton et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021].
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the dynamics that set regional to global responses to external forcing.
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [Winton et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021].
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the dynamics that set regional to global responses to external forcing.
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This difference is relevant because the largest heat uptake by the ocean occurs at higher latitudes. The effect, termed ocean heat uptake efficacy, turns out to be another manifestation of the dependence of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature patterns [Winton et al., 2010; Lin et al., 2021].
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the dynamics that set regional to global responses to external forcing.
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The three strands of research have converged over the past few years, highlighting that understanding the pattern effect benefits from—and perhaps requires—contributions from virtually all climate research communities studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the dynamics that set regional to global responses to external forcing.
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
To foster this work across communities, 140 scientists from around the world and from different disciplines gathered for a US CLIVAR (U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program) workshop in May 2022 in Boulder, Colo. Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future. The warming was particularly pronounced in the sweet spots of the western Pacific and the subtropical eastern Pacific—a perfect combination for enhanced radiative damping (Figure 2, left).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Below, we present the current consensus that emerged during the workshop and raise questions that require urgent attention from scientists.
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future. The warming was particularly pronounced in the sweet spots of the western Pacific and the subtropical eastern Pacific—a perfect combination for enhanced radiative damping (Figure 2, left). In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The Past Is a Poor Analogue for the Future
Research on the pattern effect has exposed limitations of using equilibrium climate sensitivity to constrain future warming and, conversely, of using recently observed warming to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity. The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future. The warming was particularly pronounced in the sweet spots of the western Pacific and the subtropical eastern Pacific—a perfect combination for enhanced radiative damping (Figure 2, left). In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future. The warming was particularly pronounced in the sweet spots of the western Pacific and the subtropical eastern Pacific—a perfect combination for enhanced radiative damping (Figure 2, left). In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The foremost implication of the pattern effect is that historically observed climate change does not constrain the upper limit of climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020; Forster et al., 2021].
The reason for the poor predictive power of the climate record from past decades is that the observed surface warming pattern caused feedbacks that were more stabilizing than the ones projected for the future. The warming was particularly pronounced in the sweet spots of the western Pacific and the subtropical eastern Pacific—a perfect combination for enhanced radiative damping (Figure 2, left). In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain. The current best estimate is that the radiative feedback or damping under idealized, long-term carbon dioxide forcing is 0.5 ± 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin weaker than the radiative feedback seen since the late 1800s [Andrews et al., 2022]; 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin is similar in magnitude to the single radiative feedbacks that the pattern effect modifies.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In particular, low-lying cumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific covered a larger area and reflected more sunlight back to space than studies suggest they will in the future.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain. The current best estimate is that the radiative feedback or damping under idealized, long-term carbon dioxide forcing is 0.5 ± 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin weaker than the radiative feedback seen since the late 1800s [Andrews et al., 2022]; 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin is similar in magnitude to the single radiative feedbacks that the pattern effect modifies. The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about in a different spatial pattern.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget.
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain. The current best estimate is that the radiative feedback or damping under idealized, long-term carbon dioxide forcing is 0.5 ± 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin weaker than the radiative feedback seen since the late 1800s [Andrews et al., 2022]; 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin is similar in magnitude to the single radiative feedbacks that the pattern effect modifies. The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about in a different spatial pattern. This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Importantly, the measurement and magnitude of the observed pattern effect are still debated and uncertain. The current best estimate is that the radiative feedback or damping under idealized, long-term carbon dioxide forcing is 0.5 ± 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin weaker than the radiative feedback seen since the late 1800s [Andrews et al., 2022]; 0.5 watt per square meter per kelvin is similar in magnitude to the single radiative feedbacks that the pattern effect modifies. The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about in a different spatial pattern. This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves. The other end of the uncertainty range implies that the pattern effect might have been negligible over the past century and that it might apply only over shorter timescales or in drastically different climate states.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about in a different spatial pattern. This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves. The other end of the uncertainty range implies that the pattern effect might have been negligible over the past century and that it might apply only over shorter timescales or in drastically different climate states.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how clouds react to their environment and how these dependences are represented in the highly parameterized climate models further limits our ability to quantify the full range of the possible and recently realized pattern effect.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The wide range of uncertainty opens two contrasting possibilities: The pattern effect might have acted to retard global warming fairly strongly—in other words, mean global warming might have been much higher by now if the recent surface warming had come about in a different spatial pattern. This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves. The other end of the uncertainty range implies that the pattern effect might have been negligible over the past century and that it might apply only over shorter timescales or in drastically different climate states.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how clouds react to their environment and how these dependences are represented in the highly parameterized climate models further limits our ability to quantify the full range of the possible and recently realized pattern effect.
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This possibility implies that the pattern effect has the potential to influence future near-term warming rates strongly as the surface warming pattern evolves. The other end of the uncertainty range implies that the pattern effect might have been negligible over the past century and that it might apply only over shorter timescales or in drastically different climate states.
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how clouds react to their environment and how these dependences are represented in the highly parameterized climate models further limits our ability to quantify the full range of the possible and recently realized pattern effect.
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other words, first, we need to improve our understanding of drivers of sea surface temperature patterns—decadal coupled variability; the pace and spatial structure of ocean heat uptake; and forcing by aerosols, greenhouse gases, and volcanoes—as well as the relative timing of these drivers.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how clouds react to their environment and how these dependences are represented in the highly parameterized climate models further limits our ability to quantify the full range of the possible and recently realized pattern effect.
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other words, first, we need to improve our understanding of drivers of sea surface temperature patterns—decadal coupled variability; the pace and spatial structure of ocean heat uptake; and forcing by aerosols, greenhouse gases, and volcanoes—as well as the relative timing of these drivers. An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Difficulty in quantifying the pattern effect stems from uncertainties in observed surface temperature trends, the magnitude of ocean heat uptake, and the short observational record of Earth’s energy budget. Our incomplete quantitative understanding of how clouds react to their environment and how these dependences are represented in the highly parameterized climate models further limits our ability to quantify the full range of the possible and recently realized pattern effect.
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other words, first, we need to improve our understanding of drivers of sea surface temperature patterns—decadal coupled variability; the pace and spatial structure of ocean heat uptake; and forcing by aerosols, greenhouse gases, and volcanoes—as well as the relative timing of these drivers. An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution. Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other words, first, we need to improve our understanding of drivers of sea surface temperature patterns—decadal coupled variability; the pace and spatial structure of ocean heat uptake; and forcing by aerosols, greenhouse gases, and volcanoes—as well as the relative timing of these drivers. An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution. Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes. Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Pressing, fundamental questions for climate dynamics concern how surface temperature patterns come about, how Earth’s radiation budget depends on the details of the surface temperature patterns, and the extent to which the two depend on each other. In other words, first, we need to improve our understanding of drivers of sea surface temperature patterns—decadal coupled variability; the pace and spatial structure of ocean heat uptake; and forcing by aerosols, greenhouse gases, and volcanoes—as well as the relative timing of these drivers. An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution. Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes. Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must account for the pattern effect to be applicable to climate projections of the future.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
An important goal is to explain historical patterns quantitatively and to predict their likely future evolution. Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes. Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must account for the pattern effect to be applicable to climate projections of the future. For example, the cooling pattern during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) differed from the warming pattern observed currently and from those expected for the next couple of decades and expected in the equilibrium following a doubling of carbon dioxide, not only in sign but also in the spatial distribution of magnitudes.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Second, we need to quantify the dependence of local and remote top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes on the magnitude, spatial scale, and sign (positive or negative) of surface temperature changes. Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must account for the pattern effect to be applicable to climate projections of the future. For example, the cooling pattern during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) differed from the warming pattern observed currently and from those expected for the next couple of decades and expected in the equilibrium following a doubling of carbon dioxide, not only in sign but also in the spatial distribution of magnitudes. The LGM currently provides the best constraint on the upper bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020], and hence, the details of the pattern effect matter greatly.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Third, we have to explain how ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback are connected on various timescales, both globally and regionally.
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must account for the pattern effect to be applicable to climate projections of the future. For example, the cooling pattern during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) differed from the warming pattern observed currently and from those expected for the next couple of decades and expected in the equilibrium following a doubling of carbon dioxide, not only in sign but also in the spatial distribution of magnitudes. The LGM currently provides the best constraint on the upper bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020], and hence, the details of the pattern effect matter greatly.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Interpreting Paleorecords Requires Caution
In the same way that the historical evolution of surface warming and the planet’s radiation budget inform Earth’s future only to a limited extent, analyses of paleorecords for recent and deep time intervals must account for the pattern effect to be applicable to climate projections of the future. For example, the cooling pattern during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) differed from the warming pattern observed currently and from those expected for the next couple of decades and expected in the equilibrium following a doubling of carbon dioxide, not only in sign but also in the spatial distribution of magnitudes. The LGM currently provides the best constraint on the upper bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020], and hence, the details of the pattern effect matter greatly.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also have learned that radiative feedbacks depend on global mean temperature itself: Warming Earth by 1 K from the LGM emphasizes different feedbacks (e.g., the sea ice albedo feedback) than warming by 1 K from a Miocene hothouse world or warming from 4 to 5 K in a high-emission scenario in a century or two from today (e.g., the water vapor feedback [Bloch-Johnson et al., 2021]).
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The LGM currently provides the best constraint on the upper bound of equilibrium climate sensitivity [Sherwood et al., 2020], and hence, the details of the pattern effect matter greatly.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also have learned that radiative feedbacks depend on global mean temperature itself: Warming Earth by 1 K from the LGM emphasizes different feedbacks (e.g., the sea ice albedo feedback) than warming by 1 K from a Miocene hothouse world or warming from 4 to 5 K in a high-emission scenario in a century or two from today (e.g., the water vapor feedback [Bloch-Johnson et al., 2021]). The pattern effect and the feedback temperature dependence add uncertainties to estimates of climate sensitivity based on the paleorecord, but quantifying their effects would make these records more relevant to constraining climate sensitivity and expected future warming.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also have learned that radiative feedbacks depend on global mean temperature itself: Warming Earth by 1 K from the LGM emphasizes different feedbacks (e.g., the sea ice albedo feedback) than warming by 1 K from a Miocene hothouse world or warming from 4 to 5 K in a high-emission scenario in a century or two from today (e.g., the water vapor feedback [Bloch-Johnson et al., 2021]). The pattern effect and the feedback temperature dependence add uncertainties to estimates of climate sensitivity based on the paleorecord, but quantifying their effects would make these records more relevant to constraining climate sensitivity and expected future warming.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes.
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In addition to our growing knowledge of the pattern effect, we also have learned that radiative feedbacks depend on global mean temperature itself: Warming Earth by 1 K from the LGM emphasizes different feedbacks (e.g., the sea ice albedo feedback) than warming by 1 K from a Miocene hothouse world or warming from 4 to 5 K in a high-emission scenario in a century or two from today (e.g., the water vapor feedback [Bloch-Johnson et al., 2021]). The pattern effect and the feedback temperature dependence add uncertainties to estimates of climate sensitivity based on the paleorecord, but quantifying their effects would make these records more relevant to constraining climate sensitivity and expected future warming.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes. The paleorecord could further be crucial for understanding the timescales and relative importance of internal variability, forced response, and extratropical forcing to rates of warming or cooling in the equatorial Pacific in nature and in climate models.
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10299
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Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The pattern effect and the feedback temperature dependence add uncertainties to estimates of climate sensitivity based on the paleorecord, but quantifying their effects would make these records more relevant to constraining climate sensitivity and expected future warming.
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes. The paleorecord could further be crucial for understanding the timescales and relative importance of internal variability, forced response, and extratropical forcing to rates of warming or cooling in the equatorial Pacific in nature and in climate models.
Should We Trust Model Patterns in Climate Change Scenarios?
Our understanding of the pattern effect raises the question of whether climate models can reproduce observed warming patterns. Coupled climate models simulate a freely evolving ocean surface and hence have their own expression of internal variability. For example, we would not expect a coupled model to simulate El Niño events at the same time as they happened in nature, except by chance.
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