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10300 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes. The paleorecord could further be crucial for understanding the timescale... |
10301 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Outstanding questions concern how representative pattern changes in the past century, the past millennium, or quasi-equilibrated times millions of years ago are of expected future changes. The paleorecord could further be crucial for understanding the timescale... |
10302 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The paleorecord could further be crucial for understanding the timescales and relative importance of internal variability, forced response, and extratropical forcing to rates of warming or cooling in the equatorial Pacific in nature and in climate models.
Shou... |
10303 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Coupled climate models simulate a freely evolving ocean surface and hence have their own expression of internal variability. For example, we would not expect a coupled model to simulate El Niño events at the same time as they happened in nature, except by chanc... |
10304 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
For example, we would not expect a coupled model to simulate El Niño events at the same time as they happened in nature, except by chance. This feature complicates comparisons between models and observations, especially on decadal timescales and beyond, for whi... |
10305 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
This feature complicates comparisons between models and observations, especially on decadal timescales and beyond, for which we know little about the spectrum of internal variability in the real world.
Unfortunately, coupled climate models seem unable to simul... |
10306 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Unfortunately, coupled climate models seem unable to simulate observed surface warming patterns across some key regions in which surface sensitivity modulates clouds, even when they account for internal variability. Most important, models do not re-create obser... |
10307 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In addition, models strongly disagree about the timescales over which future warming may occur in these regions.
The advent of global coupled storm- and cloud-resolving models, which currently can simulate only a few months to years at a time, presents an exci... |
10308 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
In addition, models strongly disagree about the timescales over which future warming may occur in these regions.
The advent of global coupled storm- and cloud-resolving models, which currently can simulate only a few months to years at a time, presents an exci... |
10309 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The advent of global coupled storm- and cloud-resolving models, which currently can simulate only a few months to years at a time, presents an exciting opportunity.
Our limited knowledge of the drivers of surface warming pattern biases in climate models hamper... |
10310 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Our limited knowledge of the drivers of surface warming pattern biases in climate models hampers our ability to evaluate these biases. We do not know whether these models’ inability to reproduce observed trends is due to biases in how they represent the spectru... |
10311 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The most pressing question is whether climate model simulations will be as far off from observations in the future as they have been relative to recent past conditions (compare Figure 2, left and right). If this turns out to be the case, how will model biases i... |
10312 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The most pressing question is whether climate model simulations will be as far off from observations in the future as they have been relative to recent past conditions (compare Figure 2, left and right). If this turns out to be the case, how will model biases i... |
10313 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
We need to quantify whether coupled models compensate for their bias in the surface warming pattern and radiative feedbacks through erroneous ocean heat uptake rates or aerosol forcings.
The advent of global coupled storm- and cloud-resolving models, which cur... |
10314 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
The advent of global coupled storm- and cloud-resolving models, which currently can simulate only a few months to years at a time, presents an exciting opportunity. How do we evaluate surface warming patterns and radiative feedbacks in these simulations and com... |
10315 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
How do we evaluate surface warming patterns and radiative feedbacks in these simulations and compare them meaningfully to observations and coarser resolution models, knowing that even several decades are not enough to robustly detect a forced trend in some regi... |
10316 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
And most pressing for the communities relying on the coupled models’ climate change projections, To what extent are the remaining carbon budgets [Zhou et al., 2021] with respect to global warming targets, rates of near-term future warming, and detection and att... |
10317 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A Collaborative Outlook
Working to solve the problems outlined above at the intersection of different disciplines and with input from different research communities will likely benefit related research into, for example, the sensitivity of tropical cyclones an... |
10318 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
A Collaborative Outlook
Working to solve the problems outlined above at the intersection of different disciplines and with input from different research communities will likely benefit related research into, for example, the sensitivity of tropical cyclones an... |
10319 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Promising new tools and observations are beginning to emerge. They include targeted model experiments and intercomparisons, extended global satellite observations of clouds and radiation, Argo floats sampling deep-ocean heat uptake, estimates of radiative imbal... |
10320 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
They include targeted model experiments and intercomparisons, extended global satellite observations of clouds and radiation, Argo floats sampling deep-ocean heat uptake, estimates of radiative imbalances before the year 2000, and new observational constraints ... |
10321 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
These developments encourage an optimistic outlook on our ability to quantify the pattern effect and its implications over the next couple of years.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank all participants of the US CLIVAR pattern effect workshop. M.Z.’s work was s... |
10322 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Acknowledgments
The authors thank all participants of the US CLIVAR pattern effect workshop. M.Z.’s work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis program area and was performed under the auspices of DOE by Lawrenc... |
10323 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
M.Z.’s work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis program area and was performed under the auspices of DOE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. P.C. was supported by the UK... |
10324 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
P.C. was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, grants NE/T006250/1 and NE/V012045/1. T.A. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and received fundi... |
10325 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, grants NE/T006250/1 and NE/V012045/1. T.A. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and received funding fr... |
10326 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 820829. M.R. w... |
10327 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
M.R. was supported by NASA under grant 80NSSC21K1042.
References
Andrews, T., et al. (2022), On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD036675, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675.
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10328 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
M.R. was supported by NASA under grant 80NSSC21K1042.
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10329 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10330 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10331 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10332 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10333 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10334 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10335 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10336 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10337 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10338 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10339 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Gregory, J. M., et al. (2004), A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018747.
Gregory, J. M., et al. (2020), How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO 2 be es... |
10340 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10341 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10342 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10343 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Gregory, J. M., et al. (2020), How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO 2 be estimated from historical climate change?, Clim. Dyn., 54, 129–157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y.
Lin, Y., et al. (2021), The dominant contribution of Southern O... |
10344 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10345 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10346 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10347 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10349 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10350 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10351 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10352 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10354 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10355 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10357 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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10359 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
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Author Information
Ma... |
10360 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
(2021), Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 132–136, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x.
Author Information
Maria Rugenstein (maria.rugenstein@colostate.edu), Colorado State University, Fort Collin... |
10361 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Clim. Change, 11, 132–136, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x.
Author Information
Maria Rugenstein (maria.rugenstein@colostate.edu), Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Mark Zelinka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, Calif.; Kris... |
10362 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Change, 11, 132–136, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x.
Author Information
Maria Rugenstein (maria.rugenstein@colostate.edu), Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Mark Zelinka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, Calif.; Kristopher... |
10363 | Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity
Author Information
Maria Rugenstein (maria.rugenstein@colostate.edu), Colorado State University, Fort Collins; Mark Zelinka, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, Calif.; Kristopher B. Karnauskas, University of Colorado Boulder; Paulo Ceppi, Imper... |
10364 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Days after a privacy complaint was lodged against Meta in the European Union over its latest controversial shift of legal basis claimed for processing people’s data for ads, consumer groups across the re... |
10365 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Days after a privacy complaint was lodged against Meta in the European Union over its latest controversial shift of legal basis claimed for processing people’s data for ads, consumer groups across the re... |
10366 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
A coalition of almost 20 consumer protection organizations is united in the view that Meta’s switch to railroading users into agreeing to being tracked and profiled so it can keep profiting from microtar... |
10367 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Starting this month, EU users of Meta’s social networks, Facebook and Instagram, are being offered the ‘choice’ of agreeing to being tracked and profiled by the behavioral ads business in order to contin... |
10368 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
So Meta’s updated offer to EU users is either hand over your privacy or hand over your hard earned cash.
“This is an unfair choice for users, which runs afoul of EU consumer law on several counts and mu... |
10369 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
So Meta’s updated offer to EU users is either hand over your privacy or hand over your hard earned cash.
“This is an unfair choice for users, which runs afoul of EU consumer law on several counts and mu... |
10370 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
BEUC has been joined in the complaint by 18 of its member organizations — a variety of consumer advocacy groups which are located in the following EU member states: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Fra... |
10371 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
The groups are objecting both to how Meta has gone about implementing the “pay-or-consent model” — using what they assess as “unfair, deceptive and aggressive practices” — and to the model itself, which ... |
10372 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
The groups are objecting both to how Meta has gone about implementing the “pay-or-consent model” — using what they assess as “unfair, deceptive and aggressive practices” — and to the model itself, which ... |
10373 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
They have also raised data protection concerns which are already the focus of the complaint sent to the Austrian data protection authority earlier this week by the privacy rights not-for-profit, noyb.
C... |
10374 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Commenting in a statement, Ursula Pachl, deputy director general of BEUC, said:
The choice the tech giant is currently providing to consumers is unfair and illegal — the millions of European users of Fa... |
10375 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Commenting in a statement, Ursula Pachl, deputy director general of BEUC, said:
The choice the tech giant is currently providing to consumers is unfair and illegal — the millions of European users of Fa... |
10376 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Meta is breaching EU consumer law by using unfair, deceptive and aggressive practices, including partially blocking consumers from using the services to force them to take a decision quickly, and providi... |
10377 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Meta is breaching EU consumer law by using unfair, deceptive and aggressive practices, including partially blocking consumers from using the services to force them to take a decision quickly, and providi... |
10378 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Consumer protection authorities in the EU must now spring into action and force the tech giant to stop this practice.
Summarizing the issues identified with Meta’s model under consumer protection law BE... |
10379 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Summarizing the issues identified with Meta’s model under consumer protection law BEUC writes:
Meta is partially blocking the use of Facebook and Instagram until users have selected one option or the ot... |
10380 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
In addition, many consumers likely think that, by opting for the paid subscription as it is presented, they get a privacy-friendly option involving less tracking and profiling. In fact, users are likely ... |
10381 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
In fact, users are likely to continue to have their personal data collected and used, but for purposes other than ads.
Meta provides misleading and incomplete information to consumers which does not all... |
10382 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
In fact, users are likely to continue to have their personal data collected and used, but for purposes other than ads.
Meta provides misleading and incomplete information to consumers which does not all... |
10383 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Meta is misleading them by presenting the choice as between a paying and a ‘free’ option, while the latter option is not ‘free’ because consumers pay Meta through the provision of their data, as past cou... |
10384 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Given the market power of Meta’s Facebook and Instagram services in the EU and the very strong network effects of social media platforms (since all your friends are on Facebook and Instagram), consumers ... |
10385 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
The very high subscription fee for ‘ad-free’ services is also a deterrent for consumers, which means consumers do not have a real choice.
“The company’s approach also raises concerns regarding the GDPR,... |
10386 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
The very high subscription fee for ‘ad-free’ services is also a deterrent for consumers, which means consumers do not have a real choice.
“The company’s approach also raises concerns regarding the GDPR,... |
10387 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
“The company’s approach also raises concerns regarding the GDPR,” Pachl further noted. And a spokesman for BEUC told us it might, at a later stage, file a complaint about Meta’s data protection complianc... |
10388 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Although he emphasized it’s too early to say whether or not it will take that step.
Meta’s lead data protection authority in the EU, Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC), has, for several months, ... |
10389 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
But it has yet to communicate a conclusion. In the meanwhile, Meta maintains that the model it has devised for obtaining users’ consent to its ads processing complies with the General Data Protection Reg... |
10390 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
(Although the adtech giant also said that when it was claiming performance of a contract and then legitimate interests for the processing — both of which were subsequently found to be incompatible with t... |
10391 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
The ‘pay or okay’ model Meta is seeking to impose on EU users wasn’t actually its invention; it was ‘pioneered’ in Austria, by the daily newspaper Der Standard — after which copycat cookie paywalls quick... |
10392 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
noyb has been challenging this ‘pay or okay’ approach to GDPR consent since 2021— filing complaints with a number of data protection authorities, arguing the model forces newspaper readers to “buy back t... |
10393 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
noyb has been challenging this ‘pay or okay’ approach to GDPR consent since 2021— filing complaints with a number of data protection authorities, arguing the model forces newspaper readers to “buy back t... |
10394 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Some DPAs appear to have been sympathetic to local newspapers’ use of cookie walls, seeing it as a way to support the production of journalism. However when it comes to Meta, that argument evaporates as ... |
10395 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
However when it comes to Meta, that argument evaporates as it’s definitely not in the journalism business. Moreover the adtech giant doesn’t even need to produce content to pump around its social network... |
10396 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Moreover the adtech giant doesn’t even need to produce content to pump around its social networks; it gets all that filler for free from the self-same users it’s now demanding pay a fee if they want to u... |
10397 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Back in April, a decision by Austria’s DPA on a noyb complaint about cookie paywalls said users must have the ability to say yes or no to specific data operations — meaning blanket consent is not an opti... |
10398 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
Back in April, a decision by Austria’s DPA on a noyb complaint about cookie paywalls said users must have the ability to say yes or no to specific data operations — meaning blanket consent is not an opti... |
10399 | European consumer groups band together to fight Meta’s self-serving ad-free sub — branding it ‘unfair’ and ‘illegal’
But the result left it unclear how cookie paywalls might be operated in a way that’s GDPR compliant and the privacy rights group vowed to fight the decision in court. “The final decision on ‘pay or okay’... |
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