date_resolve_at stringlengths 10 10 | date_begin stringlengths 10 10 | extracted_urls stringlengths 2 7.19k | question_type stringclasses 3
values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.34783666333985513], ["2023-03-26", 0.34783666333985513], ["2023-03-26", 0.34783666333985513], ["2023-03-26", 0.41], ["2023-03-26", 0.41], ["2023-03-26", 0.41], ["2023-03-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-26", 0.6209853542972184], ["2023-03-26", 0.7514743754118631], ["2023-03-26", 0.7984343254187358]... | https://manifold.markets/PeterBennett/will-esbot-finals-be-more-than-60-m | Resolves YES if the first question of the ESBOT finals is read at 7:25 PM EDT or later, 60 minutes after the initially scheduled start time. Scores will be updated live here: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will ESBOT finals be more than 60 minutes delayed? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-13 | 2023-03-26 | ["https://g.co/finance/BTC-USD"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-26", 0.48011917877436416], ["2023-03-26", 0.5515861251111771], ["2023-03-27", 0.3086851402551903], ["2023-03-27", 0.40852957305685483], ["2023-03-30", 0.3729908807329505], ["2023-03-30", 0.41], ["2023-03-30", 0.41839688925954227], ["2023-04-03", 0.5416486942901643], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/cc6/will-btc-hit-30k-at-any-point-by-th | https://g.co/finance/BTC-USD Resolves YES if BTC is at or above 30k at any point before end of April, otherwise NO | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-13 | Will BTC hit 30k at any point by the end of April? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.11534997520675071], ["2023-03-26", 0.33673012286512], ["2023-03-26", 0.4], ["2023-03-26", 0.4], ["2023-03-26", 0.4], ["2023-03-26", 0.4734700266082328], ["2023-03-26", 0.4734700266082328], ["2023-03-26", 0.4734700266082328], ["2023-03-26", 0.5337125916338985], ["2023-03-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/PeterBennett/will-esbot-finals-start-more-than-3 | Resolves YES if the first question of the ESBOT finals is read at 6:55 PM EDT or later, 30 minutes after the initially scheduled start time. Scores will be updated live here: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will ESBOT finals start more than 30 minutes delayed from their expected start time? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-30 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-27", 0.2791097987347251], ["2023-03-27", 0.28356821801024296], ["2023-03-27", 0.29740557675245216], ["2023-03-27", 0.32], ["2023-03-27", 0.3427952807323522], ["2023-03-27", 0.34987341569449515], ["2023-03-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.3200000000000001], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-russia-control-avdiivka-a-town | Resolves YES if Russia takes control of Avdiivka at any point in time by May 31st, according to maps provided by the If this location is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-31 | Will Russia control Avdiivka, a city close to being captured just like Bakhmut by May 31st? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.031173359301626347], ["2023-03-26", 0.051126964779778634], ["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-04-04", 0.032363059246827565], ["2023-04-09", 0.016867560684399516], ["2023-04-11", 0.016831090753192054], ["2023-04-14", 0.028671463966685316], ["2023-04-17", 0.015182276495393058], ["2023-04-22", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87500-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will there be >=87,500 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.04057428315762933], ["2023-03-26", 0.06453791248122817], ["2023-03-26", 0.07209799746780692], ["2023-03-26", 0.07843803886007102], ["2023-03-26", 0.14792899408284022], ["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-29", 0.03393163897609115], ["2023-03-29", 0.036910235120895], ["2023-03-29", 0.064537912... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87400-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,400 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will there be >=87,400 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.11675138979433895], ["2023-03-26", 0.14792899408284022], ["2023-03-26", 0.16527534254661108], ["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-29", 0.044132360182231524], ["2023-03-29", 0.08153065745113572], ["2023-04-08", 0.051455881390138875], ["2023-04-12", 0.05000000000000005], ["2023-04-17", 0.02133... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87300-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,300 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will there be >=87,300 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-27 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-26", 0.5386401790644453], ["2023-03-31", 0.45652251066541083], ["2023-03-31", 0.4826282336622082], ["2023-04-03", 0.48262823366220836], ["2023-04-03", 0.4958389431568899], ["2023-04-03", 0.4958389431568899], ["2023-04-03", 0.5370727065540744], ["2023-04-03", 0.585362871700... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87100-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,100 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-27 | Will there be >=87,100 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.285485869052032], ["2023-03-26", 0.31786860591706245], ["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-29", 0.26354055775655727], ["2023-04-04", 0.1438573423910353], ["2023-04-04", 0.19999999999999993], ["2023-04-04", 0.2534822690893476], ["2023-04-05", 0.20565131557463665], ["2023-04-08", 0.23999999999... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87200-confirmed-cases | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,200 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will there be >=87,200 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-19 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-26", 0.5515861251111771], ["2023-03-26", 0.6407315891053654], ["2023-03-26", 0.7932482857733816], ["2023-03-27", 0.6717407795338097], ["2023-03-27", 0.75], ["2023-03-27", 0.7856926584670506], ["2023-03-28", 0.7684395141377345], ["2023-03-29", 0.799670545020319], ["2023-03-... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87000-confirmed-cases-ba1ff8130074 | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-19 | Will there be >=87,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.3070586334617744], ["2023-03-26", 0.38480050377505176], ["2023-03-26", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-27", 0.29956253558111323], ["2023-03-29", 0.24515887077991497], ["2023-03-29", 0.26], ["2023-03-30", 0.2029975865913585], ["2023-03-30", 0.21], ["2023-03-31", 0.15928184997511322], ["2023-03-31", 0.17... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-87250-confirmed-cases-3516a846d6ab | This question resolves to YES if there are >=87,250 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide, using the cumulative confirmed cases of April 30th 2023, from Our World in Data: Note on resolution: | Healthcare & Biology | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Will there be >=87,250 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of April 30th 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-28 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-28", 0.04231153493474692], ["2023-03-28", 0.04777020465508368], ["2023-03-28", 0.05449773142869187], ["2023-03-28", 0.0883871090771637], ["2023-03-28", 0.08993103448387585], ["2023-03-28", 0.09674430116785672], ["2023-03-28", 0.1143771276636453], ["2023-03-28", 0.133241818... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-2-8d3ade7f4e48 | closes at 3pm. resolves at 4pm. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-28 | Will the S&P close higher on March 28th than it closed on March 27th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-05 | 2023-03-27 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chicago_mayoral_election"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-28", 0.4224577542245776], ["2023-03-28", 0.4224577542245776], ["2023-03-28", 0.4224577542245776], ["2023-03-28", 0.4224577542245776], ["2023-03-28", 0.48662321359474386], ["2023-03-28", 0.6000000000000001], ["2023-03-31", 0.48662321359474475], ["2023-03-31", 0.486623213594... | https://manifold.markets/Lorxus/will-brandon-johnson-win-the-chicag | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chicago_mayoral_election Will Brandon Johnson win, or will Paul Vallas? The market resolves YES if Johnson wins and NO if Vallas wins. The market resolves N/A if somehow the mayoral election is cancelled or a third party somehow wins. The market will resolve early, on publication of r... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-05 | Will Brandon Johnson win the Chicago mayoral election? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-28 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-03-27", 0.6353558926487746], ["2023-03-27", 0.6900000000000001], ["2023-03-27", 0.697921701304978], ["2023-03-27", 0.8400733961262447], ["2023-03-27", 0.8603974351027769], ["2023-03-27", 0.875328253624877], ["2023-03-27", 0.91], ["2023-03-27", 0.9174381061286069], ["2023-03-27... | https://manifold.markets/MarkIngraham/biden-will-not-be-indicted-today | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-28 | Biden will not be indicted today | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-14 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-28", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-29", 0.8], ["2023-04-05", 0.7638817502988752], ["2023-04-07", 0.5788775938797178], ["2023-04-08", 0.6637544893493955], ["2023-04-10", 0.5933831618707808], ["2023-04-10", 0.646540072844643], ["2023-04-14", 0.6793050442153892], ["2023-04-14", 0.6924968896314012], ["2023-04-1... | https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-william-bosi-be-the-second-per | Burden of Dreams is a 9A (V17) boulder problem in Finland, first climbed in 2016 by Nalle Hukkataival and not yet repeated. Several people are working on getting the second ascent, including William Bosi. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-14 | Will William Bosi be the second person to climb Burden of Dreams? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5023506387335823], ["2023-03-27", 0.5178875211269237], ["2023-03-27", 0.5463474969299849], ["2023-03-27", 0.5544487821378354], ["2023-03-27", 0.5748668762654902], ["2023-03-27", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-27", 0.5910594266101791], ["2023-03-27", 0.6352976295398309], ["2023-03-27", 0.66216216216216... | https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-this-market-open-for-a-few-hou | A quickie. Mar 27, 6:09pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will this market (open for a few hours) have more than (>) 10 unique traders? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-28 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.23342830279205673], ["2023-03-27", 0.2406321397072568], ["2023-03-27", 0.25933480052075625], ["2023-03-27", 0.2740916573687915], ["2023-03-27", 0.30386427648444103], ["2023-03-27", 0.3172460994389966], ["2023-03-27", 0.35376513270682103], ["2023-03-27", 0.36963579422247383], ["2023-03-27", 0.384590358... | https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-this-market-open-for-a-few-hou-637e6c682f7a | A quickie. Mar 27, 6:09pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-28 | Will this market (open for a few hours) have more than (>) 20 unique traders? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-14 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.3252403330467574], ["2023-03-27", 0.3765977118859714], ["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-28", 0.10795384366694002], ["2023-03-28", 0.12944026373290105], ["2023-03-28", 0.12944026373290105], ["2023-03-28", 0.12944026373290105], ["2023-03-28", 0.13121582766677506], ["2023-03-28", 0.139797762... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-it-be-reported-by-the-news-tha | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-14 | Will it be reported by the news that there are at least 10 fatalities in the Nashville elementary school shooting? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-04-04", 0.3930978037754542], ["2023-04-06", 0.42530769760201204], ["2023-04-07", 0.2781022755679856], ["2023-04-08", 0.4201772445649093], ["2023-04-08", 0.4394216265449017], ["2023-04-09", 0.004975085126295657], ["2023-04-09", 0.005018804412410862], ["2023-04-09", 0.081853057... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-rematch-between-alex-perei | Alex Pereira is scheduled to fight Israel Adesanya at UFC 287 on the 8th of April, 2023, in Miami, Florida, USA. They will be fighting for the UFC Middleweight title. This would be their second fight under mma rules. If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards for a decision or technical decision, this market will reso... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will the rematch between Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya at UFC 287 go to a decision? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-27", 0.5515861251111771], ["2023-03-27", 0.6253417560746516], ["2023-03-28", 0.6628829073424931], ["2023-03-28", 0.6900583960939292], ["2023-03-28", 0.7111699445268633], ["2023-03-28", 0.7699999999999999], ["2023-03-28", 0.7800000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.83700201456598... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-john-wick-4s-2nd-domestic-week | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will John Wick 4's 2nd domestic weekend box office reach 50 million dollars or more? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.05000000000000006], ["2023-03-27", 0.06096219263097119], ["2023-03-27", 0.061455825153476536], ["2023-03-27", 0.06446217989431113], ["2023-03-27", 0.07326093124022261], ["2023-03-27", 0.10258693013941837], ["2023-03-27", 0.11365715179441609], ["2023-03-27", 0.36464410735122527], ["2023-03-27", 0.45248... | https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-spain-win-the-eurovision-in-20 | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Spain does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. Mar 27, 10:55am: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-13 | Will Spain win Eurovision 2023? 🇪🇸 | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-27", 0.6526320803503031], ["2023-03-27", 0.6568912344680228], ["2023-03-28", 0.4527651993791216], ["2023-03-29", 0.44198343357550607], ["2023-03-29", 0.44198343357550607], ["2023-03-29", 0.44198343357550607], ["2023-04-04", 0.29482856299218424], ["2023-04-04", 0.3199999999... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-israeli-judicial-reform-pr | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will the Israeli judicial reform protests be over by the end of April? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.09754304929836971], ["2023-03-27", 0.10793380798494165], ["2023-03-27", 0.11957306835492361], ["2023-03-27", 0.36464410735122527], ["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-28", 0.14396959480057706], ["2023-03-28", 0.14453892763971457], ["2023-03-28", 0.15100281818222108], ["2023-03-28", 0.2283158... | https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-norway-win-the-eurovision | Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is set to take place in Liverpool, UK during May 9 - May 13, 2023. Resolves NO if Norway does not participate, N/A if the contest does not occur. Mar 27, 10:54am: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-13 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2023? 🇳🇴 | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5727728017066865], ["2023-03-27", 0.6161865273185749], ["2023-03-27", 0.6161865273185749], ["2023-03-27", 0.6161865273185749], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62],... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-sdsu-defeat-fau-at-march-madne | Resolves YES if the San Diego State University Aztecs defeat the Florida Atlantic University Owls and classify to the final of the March Madness (men) tournament | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will SDSU defeat FAU at March Madness 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-28 | 2023-03-27 | ["https://www.giroditalia.it/en/"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.3835181738570221], ["2023-03-27", 0.450678892651259], ["2023-03-27", 0.46341913091578124], ["2023-03-27", 0.5199999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.5344418052256532], ["2023-03-27", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-03-27", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-03-27", 0.5503176161043082], ["2023-03-27", 0.55031761610430... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-primoz-roglic-win-the-giro-dit | https://www.giroditalia.it/en/ | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Primož Roglič win the Giro d'Italia 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-16 | 2023-03-27 | ["https://www.giroditalia.it/en/"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.45], ["2023-03-27", 0.45], ["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-05-02", 0.45], ["2023-05-02", 0.4714991490371741], ["2023-05-02", 0.4714991490371741], ["2023-05-02", 0.4714991490371741], ["2023-05-03", 0.44928461067952913], ["2023-05-03", 0.5217716670923604], ["2023-05-06", 0.5857078583625345], ... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-remco-evenepoel-win-the-giro-d | https://www.giroditalia.it/en/ | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-16 | Will Remco Evenepoel win the Giro d'Italia 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-27", 0.6923076923076921], ["2023-03-27", 0.6923076923076922], ["2023-03-27", 0.6923076923076922], ["2023-03-28", 0.6923076923076918], ["2023-03-28", 0.6923076923076918], ["2023-03-29", 0.64], ["2023-03-29", 0.64], ["2023-03-29", 0.64], ["2023-03-29", 0.7], ["2023-03-31", 0... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-uconn-defeat-miami-at-march-ma | Resolves YES if the University of Connecticut Huskies defeat the University of Miami Hurricanes and classify to the final of the March Madness (men) tournament | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will UConn defeat Miami at March Madness 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-16 | 2023-03-27 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.52539517164024], ["2023-03-27", 0.5259765229995359], ["2023-03-27", 0.5450526031710234], ["2023-03-27", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-27", 0.5650817625573389], ["2023-03-27", 0.5794374333377009], ["2023-03-27", 0.5894990210021699], ["2023-03-27", 0.6004792204096793], ["2023-03-27", 0.61], ["2023-03-2... | https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-at-least-2-people-die-in-israe | Currently 0 have died. Their death must be directly caused by the protesting itself. Here are examples: Would count: Would not count: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Will at least 2 people die in Israel’s judicial reform protests? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-08 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5489515083313815], ["2023-03-27", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-27", 0.6059268600252206], ["2023-03-31", 0.5100000000000001], ["2023-04-03", 0.5364636046332399], ["2023-04-04", 0.4800087468202884], ["2023-04-04", 0.5011096581406056], ["2023-04-04", 0.5056611440498955], ["2023-04-04", 0.52836210126486... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-jonas-vingegaard-win-itzulia-b | Itzulia Basque Country (Tour of the Basque Country) is a one week race held in the Basque Country, Spain: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-08 | Will Jonas Vingegaard win Itzulia Basque Country 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-25 | 2023-03-27 | ["https://www.githubstatus.com/history"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-03-27", 0.43135040254441237], ["2023-03-27", 0.5087816801868408], ["2023-03-27", 0.5171564176312545], ["2023-03-27", 0.54], ["2023-03-27", 0.56], ["2023-03-27", 0.5781287186595708], ["2023-03-27", 0.5942513267434456], ["2023-03-27", 0.6335457374246681], ["2023-03-27", 0.65006... | https://manifold.markets/sacredSatan/will-any-of-the-githubs-services-ha | GitHub's services keep getting into incidents pretty regularly, but an outage that lasts for 6 hours is rare but not unheard of. Past incidents: https://www.githubstatus.com/history The market resolves YES if any of the incidents after the creation of the market last for more than 6 hours. The incident timeline is the ... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-25 | Will any of the GitHub's services have an incident that lasts at least 6 hours before 1st May, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-08 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.1000000000000001], ["2023-03-31", 0.06000000000000004], ["2023-03-31", 0.09189420773705126], ["2023-04-03", 0.08981487750759665], ["2023-04-04", 0.03715943235459032], ["2023-04-05", 0.019999999999999987], ["2023-04-05", 0.04859113363399286], ["2023-04-05", 0.04859113363399286], ["2023-04-05", 0.048591... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-rider-from-spain-win-itzulia | Itzulia Basque Country (Tour of the Basque Country) is a one week race held in the Basque Country, Spain: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-08 | Will a rider from Spain win Itzulia Basque Country 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-08 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.14792899408284022], ["2023-03-27", 0.3630721864929887], ["2023-03-27", 0.4000999833361106], ["2023-03-27", 0.4000999833361106], ["2023-03-27", 0.4000999833361106], ["2023-03-27", 0.4027505380043522], ["2023-03-27", 0.4845588196340098], ["2023-03-31", 0.44], ["2023-04-03", 0.42061595306334865], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-david-gaudu-win-itzulia-basque | Itzulia Basque Country (Tour of the Basque Country) is a one week race held in the Basque Country, Spain: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-08 | Will David Gaudu win Itzulia Basque Country 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-23 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-27", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-27", 0.5583472248243555], ["2023-03-28", 0.44677054383934117], ["2023-04-02", 0.5573329690775866], ["2023-04-19", 0.6035967236075572], ["2023-04-20", 0.5110426999151966], ["2023-04-20", 0.53], ["2023-04-20", 0.5957769532266762], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-tadej-pogacar-win-liegebastogn | Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a one-day professional cycling race (a classic) held in Belgium and considered one of the five prestigious Monuments of the cycling calendar: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-23 | Will Tadej Pogačar win Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-23 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.33783783783783805], ["2023-03-27", 0.37174721189591103], ["2023-03-27", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-04-23", 0.6541794902131232], ["2023-04-23", 0.9941758994684381], ["2023-04-23", 0.9941758994684381], ["2023-04-23", 0.9941758994684381], ["2023-04-23", 0.9998074976029406]] | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-remco-evenepoel-win-liegebasto | Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a one-day professional cycling race (a classic) held in Belgium and considered one of the five prestigious Monuments of the cycling calendar: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-23 | Will Remco Evenepoel win Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-27", 0.4881153226810428], ["2023-03-31", 0.66], ["2023-03-31", 0.703680919544452], ["2023-03-31", 0.95], ["2023-03-31", 0.978648706315853]] | https://manifold.markets/VtuberNumbers/will-houshou-marine-get-the-highest-e80673ffc9c8 | Another new outfit reveal. Vstats ( | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will Houshou Marine get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 31st March, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-03-27", 0.5541196886029836], ["2023-03-27", 0.5938526700183487], ["2023-03-27", 0.5938526700183488], ["2023-03-27", 0.593852670018349], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.6321956655002298], ["2023-03-27", 0.6899999999999998], ["2023-03-27", 0.6977016184515257], ["2023-03-2... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-b26c0db7339b | A proof-of-concept that allows a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground attack on some automated traders as they apparently currently exist. Getting 8 participants implies that I'm picking up pennies off the ground for every run of this market (+$M10 from the system bonus) and you're picking up pennies off the ground ... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 8 users submit a trade? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.06680442440590678], ["2023-03-27", 0.24], ["2023-03-27", 0.2599999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.2599999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.2599999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.2778438249682489], ["2023-03-27", 0.42160509071796576], ["2023-03-27", 0.4872759949464083], ["2023-03-27", 0.4956106337030579], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-2-6676c7762e29 | closes at 3pm. resolves at 4pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will the S&P close higher on March 27th than it closed on March 24th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-29 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-29", 0.3569706065969922], ["2023-03-29", 0.9750988163386356], ["2023-03-29", 0.9886538882232273], ["2023-03-29", 0.9888865268761711], ["2023-03-29", 0.9893294256188879]] | https://manifold.markets/VtuberNumbers/will-nakiri-ayame-get-the-highest-p | Another new outfit reveal. Vstats ( | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-29 | Will Nakiri Ayame get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 29th March, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-27", 0.6048734954470941], ["2023-03-27", 0.654823965617325], ["2023-03-27", 0.658524932262565], ["2023-03-27", 0.6871186570454395], ["2023-03-27", 0.709567915565243], ["2023-03-27", 0.73], ["2023-03-27", 0.7369606888449073], ["2023-03-27", 0.7389062077461608], ["2023-03-27... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-3 | Closes at 3pm on March 31st. Resolves at 4pm. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will the S&P close higher on March 31st (Friday) than it closed on March 24th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.3443227028338817], ["2023-03-27", 0.3945716361332801], ["2023-03-27", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-04-02", 0.3542919942079224], ["2023-04-03", 0.0007603735965029335], ["2023-04-03", 0.012595025412636095], ["2023-04-03", 0.013907650019120959]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-creed-3s-5th-weekend-domestic | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will Creed 3's 5th weekend domestic box office reach $7 million or more? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-27", 0.5911394221449503], ["2023-03-27", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-27", 0.6552836531250628], ["2023-03-27", 0.6552836531250629], ["2023-03-27", 0.6894944903186754], ["2023-03-27", 0.7329125026320891], ["2023-03-27", 0.75], ["2023-03-27", 0.8491159520865068], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-764bd53b0fda | A proof-of-concept that allows a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground attack on some automated traders as they apparently currently exist. Getting 7 participants implies that I'm picking up pennies off the ground for every run of this market (+$M10 from the system bonus) and you're picking up pennies off the ground... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 7 users submit a trade? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-27", 0.050000000000000024], ["2023-03-27", 0.05051473825916169], ["2023-03-27", 0.0517044095678075], ["2023-03-27", 0.05207013620010573], ["2023-03-28", 0.049203042180431054], ["2023-03-29", 0.050219092937143946], ["2023-03-29", 0.05473189706012551], ["2023-03-29", 0.07468584506052392], ["2023-03-29", 0.0758... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-sacramento-kings-make-the-55648f7817aa | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Sacramento Kings win their conference and play in the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-02 | Will the Sacramento Kings make the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-13 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-03", 0.02000000000000018], ["2023-04-04", 0.012863513183498314], ["2023-04-04", 0.020000000000000025], ["2023-04-04", 0.020000000000000025], ["2023-04-04", 0.020000000000000025], ["2023-04-04", 0.037800560172419395], ["2023-04-12", 0.011256936397601225], ["2023-04-12", 0.011256936397601225], ["2023-04-12", 0... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-new-york-knicks-win-the-fi | This market will resolve 'YES' if the New York Knicks win the NBA Finals in the 2022-2023 season. Starting odds are taken from Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Will the New York Knicks win the finals in the 2022-2023 NBA season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-03-27 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-01", 0.019245309422167203], ["2023-04-01", 0.019245309422167203], ["2023-04-01", 0.019245309422167203], ["2023-04-01", 0.019245309422167203], ["2023-04-01", 0.019245309422167203], ["2023-04-01", 0.019999999999999966], ["2023-04-01", 0.019999999999999966], ["2023-04-01", 0.019999999999999966], ["2023-04-01", ... | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi | This market will be open for exactly one week, from 7:30 PT on Sunday, March 26 to 7:30 PT on Sunday, April 2. When it closes, I will calculate the average percentage that this market was at over the time period. I will use displayed percentages, which are typically rounded to the nearest integer. [Clarification: When ... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? ("The Market") | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-28", 0.39847324970449793], ["2023-03-28", 0.4588881682721301], ["2023-03-28", 0.5034626929206911], ["2023-03-28", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-31", 0.030452309045798712], ["2023-03-31", 0.03208994291813497], ["2023-03-31", 0.03712451891117965], ["2023-03-31", 0.043868274702102146], ["2023-03-31", 0.0659800... | https://manifold.markets/ShitakiIntaki/will-the-magic-the-gathering-channe | The Deck Forge Market Closes Friday March 31, 2023 at 8:59 AM PDT (GMT -7) [12 hours before market criteria will be evaluated]. Resolves Resolves #MTGA | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will the Magic the Gathering channel The Deck Forge have more than 200 Youtube subscribers by Friday March 31, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-03-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-28", 0.5585330660494048], ["2023-03-28", 0.5675013406216926], ["2023-03-28", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-28", 0.6121228952760368], ["2023-03-29", 0.5909242373857028], ["2023-04-02", 0.586469742933147], ["2023-04-09", 0.4181165371377522], ["2023-04-09", 0.44999999999999996], ["2023-04-20", 0.42388367295883... | https://manifold.markets/CrystalBallin/will-the-crystal-ballin-discord-ser-cef60154f627 | Resolves YES if at market close the Crystal Ballin' | Social Sciences | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will the Crystal Ballin' Discord server have more than 100 users by the end of April? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-16 | 2023-03-28 | ["https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-28", 0.27562545432504754], ["2023-03-28", 0.316893003403374], ["2023-03-28", 0.3272116914659576], ["2023-03-28", 0.34788093670690384], ["2023-03-28", 0.36000000000000004], ["2023-03-28", 0.3666566896138881], ["2023-03-28", 0.3848306610903236], ["2023-03-28", 0.38955777531167196], ["2023-03-28", 0.39999999999... | https://manifold.markets/empathy2000/will-twitter-only-display-tweets-fr | based off this tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972 This market resolves yes iff, after April 15th, it is confirmed that the For You tab only shows content from verified accounts. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Will Twitter only display tweets from verified accounts on the For You feed by the end of April 15th? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-14 | 2023-03-28 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-28", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-28", 0.4476474800618662], ["2023-03-28", 0.4946238113131196], ["2023-03-28", 0.4946248614116327], ["2023-03-28", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-03-28", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-03-28", 0.5163890381515316], ["2023-03-28", 0.6033494931687969], ["2023-03-29", 0.34999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/lex-eliezer-podcast-will-have-bette | Lex Fridman and Eliezer Yudkowsky have allegedly recorded a podcast episode already. Lex released a podcast with Sam Altman, CEO of openAI on the 26th March. This market resolves at the end of the 15th May 2023 UTC as True if: Else false. Mar 28, 1:47pm: | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-14 | Lex & Eliezer podcast will have better youtube reach AND ratio than Lex & Altman by May 15th 2023 | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-28 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-04-02", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-04-03", 0.29626645153047954], ["2023-04-05", 0.366257064978289], ["2023-04-10", 0.5085786855556907], ["2023-04-11", 0.4616633758928399], ["2023-04-15", 0.36538695980984426], ["2023-04-15", 0.3662718584777547], ["2023-04-15", 0.40000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-newcastle-united-finish-3rd-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-28 | Will Newcastle United Finish 3rd in the 2022–23 Premier League Season? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.05150616546413388], ["2023-04-02", 0.06], ["2023-04-02", 0.08151354247499636], ["2023-04-02", 0.09000000000000001], ["2023-04-02", 0.09516736545117432], ["2023-04-02", 0.13545966228893055], ["2023-04-02", 0.14000000000000004], ["2023-04-02", 0.15257016157366282], ["2023-04-02", 0.15999999999999998], [... | https://manifold.markets/faebie/will-the-mrgirl-x-kidology-intervie | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will the mrgirl x kidology interview get started before 4:00pm PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.058337890319240235], ["2023-04-02", 0.058337890319240235], ["2023-04-02", 0.058337890319240235], ["2023-04-02", 0.069325627500136], ["2023-04-02", 0.11769279991446013], ["2023-04-02", 0.17223950498068663], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999993], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999993], ["2023-04-02", 0.20000... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-mr-girl-quit-the-interview-wit | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will Mr. Girl quit the interview with Kidology prematurely like he did with the other interviews? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-04 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.5196003074558031], ["2023-04-03", 0.42568197274627834], ["2023-04-04", 0.4211820704209584], ["2023-04-15", 0.220976126293196], ["2023-04-17", 0.12813364734119698], ["2023-04-17", 0.15895244439155543], ["2023-04-18", 0.15896834242969118], ["2023-04-18", 0.15896834242969118], ["2023-04-18", 0.1589683424... | https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-the-fed-interest-rate-stay-the | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-04 | Will the FED interest rate stay the same after the May 2023 meeting? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-10 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.6135415056422939], ["2023-04-03", 0.7559547051932837], ["2023-04-04", 0.7725983790213686], ["2023-04-04", 0.7829531906809218], ["2023-04-06", 0.5212477750104806], ["2023-04-07", 0.4832692298117], ["2023-04-07", 0.5212477750104805], ["2023-04-07", 0.53], ["2023-04-07", 0.53], ["2023-04-07", 0.53], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/SophiaLaird/if-the-percentage-chance-of-this-ma-9d920db7954e | If between 25% and 75%, this market resolves NO. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-10 | If the percentage chance of this market is <25% or > 75%, this market resolves yes | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-04 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.4138678198374128], ["2023-04-02", 0.4999569899602629], ["2023-04-02", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-04-03", 0.3161625116280306], ["2023-04-03", 0.32000000000000006], ["2023-04-03", 0.32456609227664407], ["2023-04-03", 0.33993190222108727], ["2023-04-03", 0.34], ["2023-04-03", 0.3400000000000001], ["2023... | https://manifold.markets/NamesAreHard/will-chelsea-beat-liverpool-in-the | Resolves YES if Chelsea wins against Liverpool in their Premier League match on 04.04.2023. Resolves NO if Liverpool wins or the match ends in a draw. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-04 | Will Chelsea beat Liverpool in the Premier League? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.014627151846714825], ["2023-04-02", 0.3241309403986024], ["2023-04-02", 0.45418095971577305], ["2023-04-02", 0.46159527326440175], ["2023-04-02", 0.5590263495366449], ["2023-04-02", 0.6995598489968842], ["2023-04-03", 0.11787673296639979], ["2023-04-03", 0.16822326669884166], ["2023-04-03", 0.17951740... | https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-the-market-close-below-05 | Team NO is now guaranteed a victory, but there are still a lot of YES shares left, and the probability hasn't gone all the way down to 0. This market will resolve based on the displayed probability on Manifold, so it will need to be at at most 0.4% for this market to resolve YES. "The Market": | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will "The Market" close below 0.5%? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-04-02 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-02", 0.3940731399747794], ["2023-04-02", 0.47418858084417465], ["2023-04-02", 0.4803996925441968], ["2023-04-02", 0.5237234833155961], ["2023-04-02", 0.5237234833155961], ["2023-04-02", 0.5237234833155961], ["2023-04-02", 0.5856211498774296], ["2023-04-02", 0.5930204864499669], ["2023-04-02", 0.6018589947775... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-304b5361af63 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-04 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-04", 0.13599254779069642], ["2023-04-04", 0.16], ["2023-04-04", 0.16798376419867658], ["2023-04-04", 0.1806333593880008], ["2023-04-04", 0.2042445619592795], ["2023-04-04", 0.22130360368152563], ["2023-04-04", 0.22541128172159033], ["2023-04-04", 0.22541128172159033], ["2023-04-04", 0.22541128172159033], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-apr | Closes 2pm EDT. Resolves 4pm EDT. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-04 | Will the S&P 500 close higher on April 4th than it closed on April 3rd? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-08 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-03", 0.25059936151895085], ["2023-04-03", 0.2821437817289156], ["2023-04-03", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-04-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-04-04", 0.15744291383409936], ["2023-04-04", 0.1605704448381689], ["2023-04-04", 0.16384381649644778], ["2023-04-04", 0.17280015377691432], ["2023-04-04", 0.18511321854... | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-interpol-issue-an-arrest-warra-d62551a7e8cb | Going to add description later, getting market out now | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-08 | Will Interpol issue an arrest warrant for CZ (Binance CEO) by April 7th 2023 | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-30 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-04-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-04-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-04-04", 0.3930978037754535], ["2023-04-11", 0.46892539292166235], ["2023-04-11", 0.5138527226137695], ["2023-04-12", 0.34271288267492234], ["2023-04-12", 0.4283001062485128], ["2023-04-13", 0.300000000000... | https://manifold.markets/whenhaveiever/will-the-canadian-dollar-be-worth-m-e87732893887 | Market will be resolved based on this page: If the listed rate for May 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.75 USD, this market will resolve to YES. If the listed rate for May 1, 2023 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD ≤ 0.75 USD, this market will resolve to NO. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will the Canadian dollar be worth more than US$0.75 at the end of April 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-29 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-27", 0.07000000000000006], ["2023-04-27", 0.07056354082318066], ["2023-04-27", 0.07262593700752733], ["2023-04-27", 0.07280258192463385], ["2023-04-27", 0.07408539743754043], ["2023-04-27", 0.07999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.07999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.07999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.079999... | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-whales-win-this-market | Team Whale gets 1 point for each 10,000 YES shares they collectively hold. Team Minnow gets 1 point for each trader holding NO shares. The team with the most points at close wins. The market stops normal trading activity at 18:30 Pacific time on April 24th. At this time, it enters "pseudorandom close mode", where it cl... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-29 | Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-03 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-03", 0.5216616528387208], ["2023-04-03", 0.6075802838173553], ["2023-04-03", 0.6353558926487747], ["2023-04-03", 0.6437671523747335], ["2023-04-03", 0.7045680473372781], ["2023-04-03", 0.7644335026609236], ["2023-04-03", 0.8099999999999999], ["2023-04-03", 0.8291292009002306], ["2023-04-03", 0.83130880189403... | https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-480c14a999df | I OR THE BOTS DONT COUNT TOWARDS USER COUNT. This exploit almost always never has worked in the past when we get 10 users as the requirement. Probably because there's v less incentive from people to buy when everyone buys yes. Let's try again. A proof-of-concept that allows a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground att... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-03 | Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have >=10 human users submit a trade? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-11 | 2023-04-03 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-04-03", 0.48720502041716507], ["2023-04-03", 0.5384047267355981], ["2023-04-04", 0.4743949632365169], ["2023-04-06", 0.4128352612430955], ["2023-04-09", 0.12996454467391647], ["2023-04-09", 0.17], ["2023-04-10", 0.00870077259943857], ["2023-04-10", 0.04265108721554878], ["2023-04-10", 0.06434624643084176], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-the-craziest-pror | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-11 | Will Vaush's video "The Craziest Pro-Russia Propaganda You'll Ever See" reach 150k views by 4/10 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
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