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values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-03-17 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-13", 0.4881153226810425], ["2023-03-15", 0.22770893467525832], ["2023-03-15", 0.28694554745475126], ["2023-03-15", 0.356219206383692], ["2023-03-16", 0.3976434965727636], ["2023-03-16", 0.5737470341900434], ["2023-03-16", 0.6024525274887098], ["2023-03-16", 0.6178295684788... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-1-78dbc0e24f47 | S&P Friday, March 10th close price: $3,861.59 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-17 | Will the S&P close higher on March 17th (Friday) than it closed on March 10th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-18 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.06000000000000002], ["2023-03-13", 0.06000000000000003], ["2023-03-13", 0.06000000000000004], ["2023-03-13", 0.08137111355466242], ["2023-03-18", 0.01401174443765659], ["2023-03-18", 0.0171783882786045], ["2023-03-18", 0.030740180681415562], ["2023-03-18", 0.030878429543418094], ["2023-03-18", 0.05000... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-purdue-boilermakers-win-th | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Purdue Boilermakers win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will the Purdue Boilermakers win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.05394088728831512], ["2023-03-15", 0.024326843846590646], ["2023-03-15", 0.03944008671732021], ["2023-03-15", 0.03999999999999998], ["2023-03-15", 0.048344012868905564], ["2023-03-15", 0.05242528652858636], ["2023-03-17", 0.023109598721274983], ["2023-03-17", 0.0239073198293005], ["2023-03-17", 0.0241... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-kansas-state-wildcats-win | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Kansas State Wildcats win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will the Kansas State Wildcats win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-24 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-15", 0.022705031248181972], ["2023-03-15", 0.036736767152360426], ["2023-03-15", 0.037254615242311974], ["2023-03-19", 0.03778703175563878], ["2023-03-19", 0.06000000000000016], ["2023-03-21", 0.06506421952045104], ["2023-03-21", 0.06506421952045104], ["2023-03-21", 0.06506421952045104], ["2023-03-21", 0.105... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-tennessee-volunteers-win-t | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Tennessee Volunteers win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will the Tennessee Volunteers win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-03-12", 0.9649236914892557], ["2023-03-13", 0.2823592915310916], ["2023-03-13", 0.33978480432446617], ["2023-03-13", 0.41099693455521485], ["2023-03-13", 0.47187632481790276], ["2023-03-13", 0.9282556740615978], ["2023-03-16", 0.23559805631990632], ["2023-03-18", 0.2834807330... | https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-a-big-12-team-win-the-2023-men | The following 8 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the Big 12 conference for March Madness: Kansas - 1 Texas - 2 Baylor - 3 Kansas State - 3 TCU - 6 Iowa State - 6 West Virginia - 9 This market will resolve YES if a team from the Big 12 conference wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will a Big 12 team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.12293006882873371], ["2023-03-12", 0.1768711278260806], ["2023-03-12", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-03-13", 0.005592819732682549], ["2023-03-13", 0.005616798899950839], ["2023-03-13", 0.012970115402188181], ["2023-03-13", 0.013194187825845747], ["2023-03-13", 0.01331197015656898], ["2023-03-13", 0.0250... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-banshees-of-inisherin-win-f7db3815fe53 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will 'The Banshees of Inisherin' win the Oscar for Best Picture at the 95th Academy Awards? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-25", 0.08999999999999997], ["2023-03-25", 0.08999999999999997], ["2023-03-25", 0.09999999999999996], ["2023-03-25", 0.09999999999999996], ["2023-03-25", 0.13939895390171184], ["2023-03-26", 0.04862166761084429], ["2023-03-26", 0.04895932664992409], ["2023-03-26", 0.049301540272652614], ["2023-03-26", 0.04964... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-miami-fl-hurricanes-win-th | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Miami (FL) Hurricanes win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will the Miami (FL) Hurricanes win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.18415280173831522], ["2023-03-13", 0.20040836357594202], ["2023-03-13", 0.2163146952417028], ["2023-03-13", 0.2163146952417028], ["2023-03-13", 0.21631469524170283], ["2023-03-17", 0.18363054223080066], ["2023-03-17", 0.18363054223080066], ["2023-03-17", 0.18363054223080066], ["2023-03-17", 0.18986905... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-houston-cougars-win-the-20 | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Houston Cougars win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will the Houston Cougars win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html", "https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-03-12", 0.9411764705882353], ["2023-03-12", 0.9529411764705883], ["2023-03-12", 0.9728807319012698], ["2023-03-12", 0.9793977158647886], ["2023-03-13", 0.9573085615663119], ["2023-03-13", 0.9620272611006794], ["2023-03-13", 0.9655749186646088], ["2023-03-13", 0.97536943396937... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-silicon-valley-bank-depositors-33912260c76e | Resolves YES if depositors of Silicon Valley Bank recover 100% of their uninsured funds by March 13, 11:59:59 PT, according to official announcements or reporting by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO. Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of the FDI... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will Silicon Valley Bank depositors recover 100% of their uninsured deposits by end of Monday? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.05313607654776059], ["2023-03-15", 0.03000000000000007], ["2023-03-15", 0.043556692322592905], ["2023-03-15", 0.044027511689857524], ["2023-03-15", 0.05078709714427335], ["2023-03-15", 0.05193549306989943], ["2023-03-19", 0.04000000000000004], ["2023-03-19", 0.04000000000000004], ["2023-03-19", 0.0400... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-creighton-bluejays-win-the | This market will resolve 'YES' if the Creighton Bluejays win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will the Creighton Bluejays win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-04 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.05949318612312791], ["2023-03-15", 0.02459361288307547], ["2023-03-15", 0.039455413546387576], ["2023-03-15", 0.040000000000000015], ["2023-03-15", 0.05421553580347104], ["2023-03-15", 0.05762493419135838], ["2023-03-17", 0.024383326186323453], ["2023-03-24", 0.022722614121049447], ["2023-03-24", 0.02... | https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-san-diego-state-aztecs-win | This market will resolve 'YES' if the San Diego State Aztecs win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-04 | Will the San Diego State Aztecs win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-12 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.3568215425922084], ["2023-03-12", 0.40651546733284083], ["2023-03-12", 0.4659908291751586], ["2023-03-12", 0.4900999803960008], ["2023-03-12", 0.6741863919293676], ["2023-03-12", 0.7008701172989822], ["2023-03-12", 0.74], ["2023-03-12", 0.7892460597976442], ["2023-03-12", 0.8045171154599551], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-svb-be-explicitly-deemed-a-sys | Per this | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-12 | Will SVB be explicitly deemed a systemic risk to the financial system by a US regulatory entity by end of March? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-29 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-12", 0.6602036866295536], ["2023-03-12", 0.7870554857654617], ["2023-03-12", 0.7870554857654617], ["2023-03-12", 0.7870554857654617], ["2023-03-12", 0.7895045502701874], ["2023-03-12", 0.8434155696949182], ["2023-03-12", 0.8479440859093169], ["2023-03-12", 0.85430697242370... | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-the-svb-auction-be-successful | Results positively if a buyer or consortium of buyers purchases Silicon Valley Bank in the I may trade on this market. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will the SVB auction be successful? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-18 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.8793727382388419], ["2023-03-13", 0.8892925166521389], ["2023-03-14", 0.923743805842752], ["2023-03-15", 0.953085347182659], ["2023-03-16", 0.9542191632940293], ["2023-03-16", 0.967555100211395], ["2023-03-18", 0.9941964359203856], ["2023-03-18", 0.9995934871300707]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-what-is-a-gigacha | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-18 | Will Vaush's short "what is a gigachad?" reach 11k views by 3/18 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-16 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.7481561026166265], ["2023-03-12", 0.85207100591716], ["2023-03-15", 0.9799520824162937], ["2023-03-16", 0.999565991901378], ["2023-03-16", 0.999565991901378], ["2023-03-16", 0.999565991901378]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-vaush-epically-hum | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-16 | Will Vaush's clip "VAUSH EPICALLY HUMILIATES A NAZI IN THIS DEBATE" reach 25k views by 3/18 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.06308025230094459], ["2023-03-12", 0.08257647447662045], ["2023-03-12", 0.09703439177729181], ["2023-03-12", 0.10428119087538197], ["2023-03-12", 0.11032925742824437], ["2023-03-12", 0.12], ["2023-03-12", 0.28447389527843836], ["2023-03-12", 0.3269021269165375], ["2023-03-12", 0.4098360655737706], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-a-publicly-traded-us-bank-not | Will measure the difference between the price at 8pm ET on Friday, March 10th and the price at 8pm ET on Monday, March 13th. Mar 12, 1:58pm: | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will a publicly traded US bank (not SVB) stock price close > 50% down on Monday, March 13th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.9615384615384616], ["2023-03-13", 0.999716302387132]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-valid-critiques-o | Not applicable/available for this question. | Social Sciences | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will Vaush's short "valid critiques of karl marx" reach 11k views by 3/18 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.8620689655172413], ["2023-03-13", 0.9764299044593846], ["2023-03-13", 0.9995417422625561]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-we-dumped-tons-of | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will Vaush's short "we dumped tons of slaves into the ocean" reach 10k views by 3/19 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-19 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.7077781912420692], ["2023-03-13", 0.8], ["2023-03-14", 0.7767281928731687], ["2023-03-14", 0.92643992715322], ["2023-03-19", 0.8900000000000001], ["2023-03-19", 0.8959832603539283], ["2023-03-19", 0.9002862119695362], ["2023-03-19", 0.9131482548253939], ["2023-03-19", 0.9237769494336193], ["2023-03-19... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-the-cuban-missile | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Vaush's clip "The Cuban Missile Crisis Was So Insane" reach 10k views by 3/19 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-16 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-12", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-12", 0.7589010688626064], ["2023-03-12", 0.822003609640164], ["2023-03-12", 0.8387612996146333], ["2023-03-12", 0.8387612996146335], ["2023-03-12", 0.8489799716761288], ["2023-03-12", 0.8505218089925634], ["2023-03-12", 0.880530008831636... | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/replika-will-have-an-english-langua | 3/2023: there is none ( The page must exits for a month without being deleted, and must be about Replika (or it's new name if it has one). | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-16 | Replika will have an English language Wikipedia page before 2030 | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-13 | 2023-03-12 | ["https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html", "https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.34717726137340804], ["2023-03-12", 0.44057575256319004], ["2023-03-12", 0.45287234172999113], ["2023-03-12", 0.46817725570809887], ["2023-03-12", 0.4854320749418334], ["2023-03-12", 0.5213757075363177], ["2023-03-12", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-03-12", 0.5591094590901602], ["2023-03-12", 0.59016393442... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-silicon-valley-bank-depositors | Resolves YES if depositors of Silicon Valley Bank recover at least 50% of their uninsured funds by March 13, 11:59:59 PT, according to official announcements or reporting by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO. Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-13 | Will Silicon Valley Bank depositors recover at least 50% of their uninsured deposits by end of Monday? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-14 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.18378380130709676], ["2023-03-12", 0.20417770300983692], ["2023-03-12", 0.22809147565527635], ["2023-03-12", 0.25706940874035994], ["2023-03-12", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-03-14", 0.027191977829327307], ["2023-03-14", 0.03247466195625491], ["2023-03-14", 0.03975335059248741], ["2023-03-14", 0.05027... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-testify-before-the-grand | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will Trump testify before the grand jury in Manhattan? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-12 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-12", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-12", 0.8705849986103815], ["2023-03-12", 0.93], ["2023-03-12", 0.9331128744195872], ["2023-03-12", 0.9468128415742805], ["2023-03-12", 0.9601936640530618], ["2023-03-12", 0.97], ["2023-03-12", 0.9742260155801115], ["2023-03-12", 0.981884... | https://manifold.markets/alangrow/perry-metzger-will-svb-depositors-a | Perry predicts deposits at Silicon Valley Bank will be unaffected by the recent failure and FDIC takeover. If, by market close date, I hear of a credible report that an SVB account's available balance has changed between closure and reopening, this market will resolve NO. If the bank (possibly under a new name) fails... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Perry Metzger: will SVB depositors’ accounts look the same on Monday at 9am as they did on Friday at seize time? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.038461538461538464], ["2023-03-14", 0.04616558565433041], ["2023-03-14", 0.06750117872895327], ["2023-03-14", 0.06956751786246954], ["2023-03-14", 0.06956751786246954], ["2023-03-14", 0.07033482090537571], ["2023-03-14", 0.07119558577138663], ["2023-03-14", 0.07164499349387934], ["2023-03-14", 0.07477... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-lower-the-fed-funds-ra | In the wake of the SVB crisis, some pundits have predicted that the Fed will move quickly to cut interest rates to stem the crisis. How will the Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they lower the rate, otherwise NO. Related | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-16 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-14", 0.511884677318958], ["2023-03-14", 0.5767392672044012], ["2023-03-15", 0.8349197617955241], ["2023-03-16", 0.9996654277637013], ["2023-03-16", 0.9996654277637013], ["2023-03-16", 0.9996654277637013]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-porn-rewires-the | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-16 | Will Vaush's short "porn rewires the brain" reach 10k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-20 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-03-14", 0.454306235634808], ["2023-03-14", 0.79], ["2023-03-14", 0.8536815224270579], ["2023-03-16", 0.9017230914109347], ["2023-03-17", 0.9152031193338636], ["2023-03-19", 0.9778077723771555], ["2023-03-19", 0.985821293754892], ["2023-03-20", 0.9993582642129939]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-4-and-a-half-hour | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will Vaush's video "4 AND A HALF HOURS OF PURE DEBATE | President Sunday vs Infrar" reach 60k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-20 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 9.30644856845051e-05], ["2023-03-20", 0.3378378378378379]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-vaush-talks-kat-bl | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will Vaush's clip "Vaush Talks Kat Blaque Drama & Burning the Bridge" reach 20k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-20 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.9808669564684994], ["2023-03-20", 0.999712714647417]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-vaush-debunks-denn | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will Vaush's clip "Vaush Debunks Dennis Prager *Why Women Have Jobs*" reach 22k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-20 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.01913304353150059], ["2023-03-20", 0.0002872853525830945]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-tankies-are-losin | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will Vaush's video "Tankies Are Losing It Over My "Controversial" Takes About 1984" reach 120k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-19 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.4804850797568545], ["2023-03-14", 0.5363867991148225], ["2023-03-14", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-15", 0.48947079712337904], ["2023-03-18", 0.3612069548363881], ["2023-03-18", 0.3957946826168927], ["2023-03-18", 0.3957946826168927], ["2023-03-18", 0.4529956526084303], ["2023-03-18", 0.5], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-kamaru-usman-vs-leon-edwards-i | Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards are scheduled to fight for a third time at UFC 286 on March 18th, 2023. If the fight is a finish (TKO, KO, Submission), or a DQ on the night, then this market will resolve to NO. If the fight goes to a Decision or a Technical Decision, then this market will resolve to YES. If the fight ge... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards III at UFC 286 go to a decision? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-20 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-20", 3.8651345384510806e-05], ["2023-03-20", 0.6069021962245456]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-creed-3s-3rd-weekend-domestic | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-20 | Will Creed 3's 3rd weekend domestic box office reach $20 million or more? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.5582932874690721], ["2023-03-13", 0.5582932874690721], ["2023-03-13", 0.8], ["2023-03-14", 0.48316565274353296], ["2023-03-14", 0.6599999999999999], ["2023-03-15", 0.34], ["2023-03-15", 0.34579784819076725], ["2023-03-16", 0.39714836078588717], ["2023-03-16", 0.39714836078588717], ["2023-03-16", 0.397... | https://manifold.markets/CourierSix/premier-league-will-manchester-unit | Yes = Manchester United defeat Newcastle and therefore get 3 points from the game. No = Newcastle defeat Manchester United and therefore get 3 points from the game. N/A = The game results in a draw or the game is cancelled/postponed - this market is for the fixture set to take place on the 2nd of April 2023. The market... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | (Premier League) Will Manchester United defeat Newcastle United? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-14 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.6059268600252206], ["2023-03-14", 0.5579839366279172], ["2023-03-14", 0.5998551006235209], ["2023-03-14", 0.6410231738583387], ["2023-03-14", 0.6911396909894059], ["2023-03-14", 0.702306046190254], ["2023-03-14", 0.7492549977138611], ["2023-03-14", 0.7900000000000001], ["2023-03-14", 0.793007747708307... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-1-a31a809042d3 | March 13th close price: $3,855.74 | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will the S&P close higher on March 14th than it closed on March 13th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-14 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.5950167348456674], ["2023-03-13", 0.655535326997746], ["2023-03-13", 0.6555353269977464], ["2023-03-13", 0.7121577318817582], ["2023-03-13", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-03-13", 0.76395403639121], ["2023-03-14", 0.6446022473229583], ["2023-03-14", 0.6832454948054116], ["2023-03-14", 0.6905724579752264]... | https://manifold.markets/rocket/will-openai-publish-a-blog-post-tha | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will OpenAI publish a blog post that contains the string "GPT-4" by the end of March 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-25 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.3770662520878982], ["2023-03-13", 0.5842169969257476], ["2023-03-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-13", 0.7546245974712028], ["2023-03-13", 0.8994160814540372], ["2023-03-21", 0.39884872749771394], ["2023-03-21", 0.5135435434374965], ["2023-03-25", 0.53], ["2023-03-25", 0.5494435593856357], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-hakutor-m1-sucessfully-land-on | Success in this case means landing in a way that doesn't prevent the operation of customer payloads. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-26 | Will HAKUTO-R M1 sucessfully land on the moon? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-30 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.18125679034626116], ["2023-03-13", 0.19228910309450767], ["2023-03-13", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-03-13", 0.20065729226870208], ["2023-03-13", 0.20799107976896103], ["2023-03-13", 0.208905756281554], ["2023-03-13", 0.21772478652955604], ["2023-03-13", 0.22183082503175536], ["2023-03-13", 0.230270885... | https://manifold.markets/camelwrangler/will-at-least-3-us-banks-be-taken-o | Bank failure defined as being taken over by the federal government of the USA. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-30 | Will at least 3 US banks be taken over by the Federal Government before April 1st? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-14 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.3569706065969924], ["2023-03-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-13", 0.4791557379939048], ["2023-03-13", 0.6091630364329851], ["2023-03-13", 0.7950724333829841], ["2023-03-14", 0.72160848069988], ["2023-03-14", 0.7599650219815361], ["2023-03-14", 0.7715764907109794], ["2023-03-14", 0.7900000000000001... | https://manifold.markets/KhoaPhung3443/will-gpt4-release-before-march | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-14 | Will GPT-4 release before March? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-21 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-13", 0.4501302959344985], ["2023-03-13", 0.5872462121519877], ["2023-03-20", 0.7320038130556903], ["2023-03-21", 0.9997622686154514]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-japan-make-it-to-the-champions | If Japan makes it to the Championship game (the grand finals of the knockout stage) this market will resolve to YES. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-21 | Will Japan make it to the Championship game in the 2023 World Baseball Classic? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-12 | 2023-03-13 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-13", 0.3740902775423716], ["2023-03-13", 0.4311395967451247], ["2023-03-13", 0.4311395967451247], ["2023-03-13", 0.5208652980205829], ["2023-03-13", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-14", 0.41234321118962747], ["2023-03-14", 0.4371589376241917], ["2023-03-14", 0.4428241620893358], ["2023-03-14", 0.4736562007027... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-this-market-be-above-52-when-i | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-12 | Will this market be above 52% when it closes? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-18 | 2023-03-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.5981353480147885], ["2023-03-14", 0.6930502211514954], ["2023-03-14", 0.7222129718681527], ["2023-03-18", 0.6818527656150513], ["2023-03-18", 0.9951931188988409]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-marvin-vettori-beat-roman-doli | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Marvin Vettori beat Roman Dolidze at UFC 286? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-15 | 2023-03-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-16", 0.2036216277491239], ["2023-03-16", 0.25706940874035994], ["2023-04-05", 0.21472902366646732], ["2023-04-15", 0.00016158936961322963], ["2023-04-15", 0.005656334821614107]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-vtuber-from-neoporte-be-in-t | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-15 | Will a vtuber from Neo-Porte be in the winning team of Apex Legends tournament VSaikyo 5? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-18 | 2023-03-14 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-14", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-15", 0.675165984820092], ["2023-03-18", 0.0027291153854457264], ["2023-03-18", 0.2898460722472349], ["2023-03-18", 0.42895795632990247], ["2023-03-18", 0.4648054940618312], ["2023-03-18", 0.4667880720800602]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-rafael-fiziev-beat-justin-gaet | Gaethje and Fiziev are scheduled to fight on March 18th at UFC 286 at the O2 Arena in London, England. If Fiziev wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Gaethje wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, th... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will Rafael Fiziev beat Justin Gaethje at UFC 286? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-24 | 2023-03-18 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-18", 0.5045547923920427], ["2023-03-18", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-20", 0.36224445877351574], ["2023-03-23", 0.40331639889122284], ["2023-03-23", 0.5061225466628023], ["2023-03-23", 0.5654886835248707], ["2023-03-24", 0.4473515317088865], ["2023-03-24", 0.9917257616901034], ["2023-03-24", 0.999799144335... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-destroying-all-in | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-24 | Will Vaush's video "DESTROYING ALL INCEL BLACKPILL ARGUMENTS ONCE AND FOR ALL" reach 150k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-13 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.46141482807374823], ["2023-03-19", 0.509900019603999], ["2023-03-20", 0.4614148280737482], ["2023-03-20", 0.5378740912395759], ["2023-03-21", 0.3710836784514523], ["2023-04-13", 0.013486889552233676], ["2023-04-13", 0.014442722873466976], ["2023-04-13", 0.028770460358359014], ["2023-04-13", 0.12984972... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/eth-low-within-24hr-of-shanghai | Vs prior 14d | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-14 | ETH Low within 24hr of Shanghai | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.10876199168906994], ["2023-03-19", 0.12423271365383998], ["2023-03-19", 0.14670786636300254], ["2023-03-19", 0.18497759373879635], ["2023-03-19", 0.1952730598236891], ["2023-03-19", 0.20068323993377923], ["2023-03-19", 0.23422919323761582], ["2023-03-19", 0.2759077364529302], ["2023-03-19", 0.30073662... | https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-hustlegpt-get-to-100000-cash-o | @ jacksonfall on twitter is trying to use advice from GPT-4 to run an online buisiness. As of March 18, they had $7,788.84 cash on hand, mostly from investment. Will they get to $100k within 7 days? | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will HustleGPT get to $100,000 cash on hand before 3/27? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-03-26", 0.2547200588300538], ["2023-03-31", 0.191465131125482], ["2023-04-01", 0.44186046511627936], ["2023-04-01", 0.5183385754085109], ["2023-04-02", 0.004197208707716684], ["2023-04-02", 0.02188312930331553], ["2023-04-02", 0.04558174890952449], ["2023-04-02", 0.060000000... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-george-russell-finish-on-the-p | A podium finish is a finish in the top three positions. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will George Russell finish on the podium for the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.1000000000000001], ["2023-03-31", 0.07720959234140887], ["2023-04-01", 0.06566764368772206], ["2023-04-02", 0.01143361244448588], ["2023-04-02", 0.04564499031800864], ["2023-04-02", 0.04958210482446929]] | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-charles-leclerc-win-the-2023-f | He won the 2022 Australian Grand Prix. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Charles Leclerc win the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.13793103448275862], ["2023-03-24", 0.09452115993409259], ["2023-03-26", 0.11440682508253201], ["2023-03-27", 0.13625600470065458], ["2023-03-27", 0.16047242756669167], ["2023-04-01", 0.11817893823165142], ["2023-04-01", 0.1352066613614105], ["2023-04-02", 0.006077947792620401], ["2023-04-02", 0.010856... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-fernando-alonso-win-the-2023-f | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Fernando Alonso win the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-03-21", 0.2068958329442163], ["2023-03-24", 0.0843612864351124], ["2023-03-24", 0.09], ["2023-03-26", 0.2601784926905114], ["2023-03-26", 0.2601784926905114], ["2023-03-27", 0.22002832758576554], ["2023-03-27", 0.24], ["2023-04-01", 0.24155397588318583], ["2023-04-01", 0.25],... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-carlos-sainz-finish-on-the-pod | A podium finish is a finish in the top three positions. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Carlos Sainz finish on the podium for the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.14792899408284022], ["2023-03-21", 0.09638141882153972], ["2023-03-24", 0.17966619179680837], ["2023-03-24", 0.47000000000000003], ["2023-03-24", 0.49933378599247147], ["2023-03-28", 0.15138112487219585], ["2023-03-31", 0.17572046622360182], ["2023-03-31", 0.20093080659380178], ["2023-03-31", 0.229999... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-sergio-perez-win-the-2023-form | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Sergio Perez win the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-07 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.18415421644168453], ["2023-03-19", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-03-19", 0.26321255160891244], ["2023-03-19", 0.43], ["2023-03-19", 0.46080454087733214], ["2023-03-19", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-03-20", 0.1705508637673123], ["2023-03-20", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-03-20", 0.2556589153256366], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/Swordfish42/will-the-owl-house-s3-e3-watching-a | By "significant leak" I mean at least a full minute long footage leak from unauthorised source, that makes it to the community at large. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-08 | Will The Owl House S3 E3 "Watching and Dreaming" have a significant leak before it's official release on April 8th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.7641509433962264], ["2023-03-24", 0.33792871495984145], ["2023-03-24", 0.3699999999999999], ["2023-03-24", 0.7166615336856577], ["2023-03-24", 0.7235568276854164], ["2023-03-24", 0.7235568276854164], ["2023-03-26", 0.4999999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4999999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.6815917600457... | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-39571d63359c | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.5235434486635903], ["2023-03-19", 0.5506064448021771], ["2023-03-19", 0.5647983873827979], ["2023-03-19", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-19", 0.5976620444739543], ["2023-03-19", 0.6567947653853528], ["2023-03-19", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-20", 0.6215862181250661], ["2023-03-22", 0.40342531658837... | https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-mr-girl-do-a-live-read-of-the | Nobody is going to read it, but an audiobook? Maybe Will Mr Girl weaponise how boring he is, so that nobody bothers to review the "evidence"? I won't resolve NO if he misses a word, but he needs to read the first & last page, and not meaningfully skip any text that he himself has written. Skipping logs, clips, etc. is... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will Mr Girl do a live read of the ENTIRE article within 7 days of its public release? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-23 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.538267190857794], ["2023-03-19", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-19", 0.6197730595589722], ["2023-03-20", 0.48127063571392537], ["2023-03-20", 0.5090362093173769], ["2023-03-20", 0.5090362093173769], ["2023-03-20", 0.5090362093173769], ["2023-03-20", 0.5116990230876881], ["2023-03-20", 0.53820840653908... | https://manifold.markets/DanielChen/will-tesla-close-higher-than-18013 | Only accounts market close price at 4:00pm Friday from Yahoo Finance. The market will close on Wednesday and resolve on Friday. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-23 | Will Tesla close higher than $180.13 on Friday, March 24th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-24", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-25", 0.5859566509916948], ["2023-03-25", 0.760833818853177], ["2023-03-25", 0.8011601756195046], ["2023-03-25", 0.8699999999999999], ["2023-03-25", 0.8996704906465364], ["2023-03-25", 0.9262247324636663], ["2023-03-25", 0.96], ["2023-03-25", 0.9623382297367881], ["2023-03-... | https://manifold.markets/VtuberNumbers/will-houshou-marines-song-maribako-8fce9052c80d | If Maribako (aka I’m Your Treasure Box ＊あなたは マリンせんちょうを たからばこからみつけた) ( | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will Houshou Marine's song Maribako be the most viewed Hololive song over the week between 03/19 to 03/25? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-17 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-19", 0.6255301119293804], ["2023-03-19", 0.88], ["2023-03-19", 0.9116817293699355], ["2023-03-19", 0.92], ["2023-03-19", 0.9303750901341887], ["2023-03-20", 0.9163468510741227], ["2023-04-13", 0.96], ["2023-04-13", 0.9699206396192852], ["2023-04-14", 0.9784493249739492], [... | https://manifold.markets/Riely/will-ethereums-shanghai-hard-fork-s | Ethereum developers set a target date of April 12 for its | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-17 | Will Ethereum’s Shanghai hard fork successfully go alive on April 12th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-19 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.05150616546413389], ["2023-03-19", 0.09149686087205619], ["2023-03-19", 0.14822439232738296], ["2023-03-19", 0.16000000000000003], ["2023-03-19", 0.16000000000000003], ["2023-03-19", 0.16000000000000003], ["2023-03-19", 0.16262014138982164], ["2023-03-19", 0.2910185835228283], ["2023-03-19", 0.2910185... | https://manifold.markets/PryingMind/will-she-stay-for-longer-than-an-ho | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-19 | Will she stay for longer than an hour on stream? | manifold | 1 |
2023-05-12 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.12040100991602601], ["2023-03-19", 0.1262560908184292], ["2023-03-19", 0.12973237377827077], ["2023-03-19", 0.13205757807663104], ["2023-03-19", 0.1410089782688891], ["2023-03-19", 0.14962176610321323], ["2023-03-19", 0.14999999999999977], ["2023-03-19", 0.15], ["2023-03-19", 0.15], ["2023-03-19", 0.1... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-elon-musk-name-a-new-ceo-of-tw | Resolves YES if Elon Musk names a new CEO of Twitter by this date; otherwise NO. This is defined as Musk officially announcing who the new CEO will be. It is not necessary for them to become CEO by then. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-12 | Will Elon Musk name a new CEO of Twitter before June 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.24599441640427247], ["2023-03-19", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-04-01", 0.2245084188501578], ["2023-04-07", 0.3674608231264908], ["2023-04-09", 0.64], ["2023-04-09", 0.68], ["2023-04-09", 0.73978392685634], ["2023-04-09", 0.96], ["2023-04-09", 0.9659093756577217], ["2023-04-09", 0.9831775786251569], ["... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-rob-font-beat-adrian-yanez-at | Font and Yanez are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. If Font wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Yanez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Rob Font beat Adrian Yanez at UFC 287? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.29431697322470146], ["2023-03-19", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-03-19", 0.38160880900951843], ["2023-03-20", 0.27159598678505054], ["2023-03-21", 0.44098902582565447], ["2023-03-22", 0.28032394140561073], ["2023-03-22", 0.32], ["2023-03-25", 0.30293673045834846], ["2023-03-25", 0.370570283147016], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-marlon-vera-beat-cory-sandhage | Vera and Sandhagen are scheduled to fight on March 25th in San Antonio, Texas at UFC on ESPN 43. If Vera wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Sandhagen wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will reso... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Marlon Vera beat Cory Sandhagen? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.4631937748186789], ["2023-03-19", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-25", 0.6547872905957317], ["2023-03-25", 0.6983519605272993], ["2023-03-26", 0.7488406934481383], ["2023-03-26", 0.9612856200460014], ["2023-03-26", 0.9681883612392143]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-holly-holm-beat-yana-santos | Holm and Santos (formerly Kunitskaya) are scheduled to fight on March 25th in San Antonio, Texas at UFC on ESPN 43. If Holm wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Santos wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Holly Holm beat Yana Santos? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-19", 0.5874525717154117], ["2023-03-21", 0.6301267440853051], ["2023-04-08", 0.3812937805890451], ["2023-04-09", 0.0005552031665530408], ["2023-04-09", 0.008255086444916857], ["2023-04-09", 0.07684564967198179], ["2023-04-09", 0.08999999999999997], ["2023-04-09", 0.0956822... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-gerald-meerschaert-beat-joseph | Meerschaert and Pyfer are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. If Meerschaert wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Pyfer wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Gerald Meerschaert beat Joseph Pyfer at UFC 287? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.4852407502758884], ["2023-03-19", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-04-03", 0.5405234925112613], ["2023-04-04", 0.492696063104349], ["2023-04-07", 0.3435224879681292], ["2023-04-07", 0.4], ["2023-04-07", 0.45551754434594927], ["2023-04-07", 0.48], ["2023-04-08", 0.5083235581313814], ["2023-04-08", 0.5242990... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-kevin-holland-beat-santiago-po | Holland and Ponzinibbio are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. If Holland wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Ponzinibbio wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolv... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Kevin Holland beat Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.2928541659403601], ["2023-03-19", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-04-03", 0.5969143913224616], ["2023-04-08", 0.569657743390651], ["2023-04-09", 0.5520372243642976], ["2023-04-09", 0.5643453363892681], ["2023-04-09", 0.5830817826038386], ["2023-04-09", 0.617334974350711], ["2023-04-09", 0.7018694633423981... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-kelvin-gastelum-beat-chris-cur | Gastelum and Curtis are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. If Gastelum wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Curtis wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Kelvin Gastelum beat Chris Curtis at UFC 287? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-15 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.12286640318000266], ["2023-03-19", 0.1312845130923961], ["2023-03-19", 0.14853491577906497], ["2023-03-19", 0.16312863766995514], ["2023-03-19", 0.17121967576027178], ["2023-03-19", 0.19782009416024077], ["2023-03-19", 0.33556840071333566], ["2023-03-19", 0.4803996925441968], ["2023-03-30", 0.13405648... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-at-least-one-big-riot | Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Will there be at least one big riot in the United States before April 15th, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-18 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.6366394558088871], ["2023-03-19", 0.6402119225160338], ["2023-03-19", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-19", 0.6632178158164691], ["2023-03-19", 0.6730946097347092], ["2023-03-19", 0.6730946097347092], ["2023-03-19", 0.6799999999999999], ["2023-03-19", 0.6799999999999999], ["2023-03-19", 0.67999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-chatgpt-beat-a-human-at-chess | This market predicts whether ChatGPT using the most powerful available GPT-4 model, assisted by Mira, will beat a selected human opponent in a game of chess. The game will be played on Lichess as a correspondence game, with ChatGPT taking the white pieces to provide a slight advantage. Resolves YES if: Resolves 50% if:... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-18 | Will ChatGPT beat a human at chess in a correspondence game? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-09 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.18685018328530326], ["2023-03-19", 0.23187978975930348], ["2023-03-19", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-03-28", 0.3400000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.3666662992953775], ["2023-03-29", 0.3147910769725421], ["2023-04-03", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-04-03", 0.3597429042167544], ["2023-04-06", 0.25043978520... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jorge-masvidal-beat-gilbert-bu | Masvidal and Burns are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida. If Masvidal wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Burns wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will reso... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-09 | Will Jorge Masvidal beat Gilbert Burns at UFC 287? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-21", 0.725117922744106], ["2023-03-23", 0.7501094794840958], ["2023-03-25", 0.001341692967471869], ["2023-03-25", 0.018789747490831246], ["2023-03-25", 0.6656843901677274]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-this-is-extremely | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will Vaush's video "THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT (WATCH OR ELSE)" reach 80k views by 3/25 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-01 | 2023-03-19 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-19", 0.3850667279290198], ["2023-03-19", 0.3952445645371323], ["2023-03-19", 0.3957739453422218], ["2023-03-19", 0.4016966611921431], ["2023-03-19", 0.4023756115510043], ["2023-03-19", 0.40630577450410593], ["2023-03-19", 0.40913994509278645], ["2023-03-19", 0.4093928967470248], ["2023-03-19", 0.409999999999... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/trump-has-asked-his-supporters-to-p | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-01 | Trump has asked his supporters to protest his imminent arrest. Will there be property damage reported by the media? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-21", 0.5061978762915845], ["2023-03-21", 0.5225519274164303], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.5831290247061185], ["2023-03-21", 0.65], ["2023-03-21", 0.6837... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-mr-girls-articlemanifesto-be-o | Althought last week Max said the article is dropping soon, it is unlikely to be in March because of the following reasons. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will Mr. Girl's article/manifesto be out by April 10th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-21 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.2965700413400845], ["2023-03-20", 0.5137094693551063], ["2023-03-20", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-03-20", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-20", 0.6259989189031249], ["2023-03-20", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-21", 0.28784198940926703], ["2023-03-21", 0.33885456103968564], ["2023-03-22", 0.3164748594906... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-mike-pompeo-visit-kyiv-during | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-21 | Will Mike Pompeo visit Kyiv during 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-28 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.4964391275266806], ["2023-03-20", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-25", 0.4964391275266806], ["2023-03-25", 0.4964391275266806], ["2023-03-26", 0.4302414910103613], ["2023-03-26", 0.45000000000000007], ["2023-03-26", 0.45000000000000007], ["2023-03-26", 0.45000000000000007], ["2023-03-26", 0.45018417835... | https://manifold.markets/SophiaLaird/if-the-percentage-chance-of-this-ma | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-28 | If the percentage chance of this market is even when it ends, this market will resolve yes. Otherwise it resolves no. | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.24972253052164275], ["2023-03-20", 0.36], ["2023-03-21", 0.2218638096703318], ["2023-03-21", 0.27335530223579757], ["2023-03-21", 0.28265414047899057], ["2023-03-21", 0.3599999999999999], ["2023-03-21", 0.3599999999999999], ["2023-03-21", 0.3599999999999999], ["2023-03-30", 0.25444074652865145], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-win-ronde | https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Mathieu van der Poel win Ronde van Vlaanderen (Tour of Flanders) 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-20", 0.4560750790480172], ["2023-03-21", 0.20966887814971422], ["2023-03-21", 0.20966887814971438], ["2023-03-21", 0.25182039822153435], ["2023-03-21", 0.39793086327756483], ["2023-03-21", 0.400975156105756], ["2023-03-21", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-03-21", 0.4857758041... | https://manifold.markets/DanielChen/will-tesla-close-higher-or-lower-th | Only accounts market close price at 4:00pm Friday from Yahoo Finance. Higher is yes, Lower is no | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will Tesla close higher or lower than $183.25 tomorrow, March 20th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.23093554081473494], ["2023-03-20", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-21", 0.1846905548600608], ["2023-03-21", 0.23294571807085426], ["2023-03-21", 0.25047792770322874], ["2023-03-21", 0.33813398410363266], ["2023-04-02", 0.22000000000000003], ["2023-04-02", 0.22000000000000003], ["2023-04-02", 0.2200000... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-tadej-pogacar-win-ronde-van-vl | https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Tadej Pogačar win Ronde van Vlaanderen (Tour of Flanders) 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.0899650427718353], ["2023-03-20", 0.14657021073550247], ["2023-03-20", 0.15000000000000008], ["2023-03-24", 0.18998560121381877], ["2023-03-24", 0.19908749109853083], ["2023-03-30", 0.2461964130499122], ["2023-03-30", 0.2461964130499122], ["2023-03-30", 0.2461964130499122], ["2023-03-31", 0.2311896005... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-wout-van-aert-win-ronde-van-vl | https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Wout van Aert win Ronde van Vlaanderen (Tour of Flanders) 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.07999999999999992], ["2023-03-20", 0.08362483022742752], ["2023-03-20", 0.12322075560136642], ["2023-03-20", 0.12322075560136642], ["2023-03-20", 0.12322075560136642], ["2023-03-20", 0.14685133677359472], ["2023-03-20", 0.14685133677359472], ["2023-03-20", 0.14685133677359472], ["2023-03-30", 0.089541... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-thomas-pidcock-win-ronde-van-v | https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/en | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Thomas Pidcock win Ronde van Vlaanderen (Tour of Flanders) 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-27", 0.4501302959344989], ["2023-03-31", 0.00367252929668342], ["2023-03-31", 0.02116318453713135], ["2023-03-31", 0.02116318453713135], ["2023-03-31", 0.02116318453713135], ["2023-03-31", 0.024964878949559764], ["2023-03-31", 0.03000000000000002], ["2023-03-31", 0.0300000... | https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/according-to-google-finance-will-1-76772004b861 | The outcome will be determined from the month view price for March 31st using https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | According to Google Finance, will 1 BTC be worth more than 16 ETH on March 31st, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-24 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.404123711340206], ["2023-03-20", 0.4458330890206559], ["2023-03-20", 0.49290815813298444], ["2023-03-20", 0.5640375062052656], ["2023-03-20", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-21", 0.46551424528557295], ["2023-03-21", 0.4697707668311766], ["2023-03-21", 0.4740705093354546], ["2023-03-21", 0.4784136656746... | https://manifold.markets/CourierSix/will-newcastle-finish-in-the-top-4 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-24 | Will Newcastle finish in the top 4 of the Premier League? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-02 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-31", 0.89], ["2023-03-31", 0.911032028469751], ["2023-04-01", 0.6113493941542072], ["2023-04-01", 0.63], ["2023-04-01", 0.63], ["2023-04-01", 0.63], ["2023-04-01", 0.651333475492188], ["2023-04-01", 0.6537967363306653], ["2023-04-01", 0.7000000000000001], ["2023-04-01", 0.... | https://manifold.markets/MeherHarshith/will-fernando-alonso-score-another | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-02 | Will Fernando Alonso score another podium in Australian grand prix(F1) | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-20", 0.4881153226810426], ["2023-03-27", 0.5994875391998686], ["2023-03-27", 0.9996649563122579]] | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-creed-3s-4th-weekend-domestic | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Will Creed 3's 4th weekend domestic box office reach $10 million or more? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-25 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.183168932451531], ["2023-03-20", 0.34745193958873993], ["2023-03-20", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-21", 0.13607290454401336], ["2023-03-21", 0.14223475233357172], ["2023-03-21", 0.15909407118509988], ["2023-03-22", 0.040012445660834214], ["2023-03-22", 0.0424873601879046], ["2023-03-22", 0.050000000... | https://manifold.markets/androidyl/will-the-euro-drop-below-1-before-3 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-25 | Will the Euro drop below $1 before 3/25? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.17455380430699283], ["2023-03-20", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.25956656630748004], ["2023-03-20", 0.29372720512215506], ["2023-03-20", 0.3476884078754428], ["2023-03-20", 0.3802997806215402], ["2023-03-20", 0.3830146866462322], ["2023-03-20", 0.4716334257791386], ["2023-03-20", 0.50999999999... | https://manifold.markets/KnoxMLG/will-forsen-beat-xqcs-record-by-the | Resolves yes if he beats the enderdragon (HAS TO BEAT RECORD) Resolves no if he doesn't by April 1st. Resolves N/A if he quits playing | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will Forsen beat XQC’s record by the end of March | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-07 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-03-20", 0.8318045255500046], ["2023-03-20", 0.86], ["2023-03-20", 0.8793727382388419], ["2023-03-20", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.9045531187835619], ["2023-03-24", 0.726614549401688], ["2023-03-... | https://manifold.markets/jack/if-trump-is-indicted-will-his-2024-3f1b4a6f6c61 | If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 2% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not in... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-07 | If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall at least 2%? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.5736698499317872], ["2023-03-20", 0.629081075005844], ["2023-03-25", 0.5640984854027458], ["2023-03-26", 0.005760860347478403], ["2023-03-26", 0.005846029630617777], ["2023-03-26", 0.05004010480756262], ["2023-03-26", 0.17661221296594135], ["2023-03-26", 0.2401125294088589], ["2023-03-26", 0.558995119... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-when-companies-say | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Vaush's clip "when companies say we don't tolerate racism" reach 15k views by 3/26 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-20", 0.6430293934030075], ["2023-03-21", 0.7701241670354446], ["2023-03-23", 0.5965623588650741], ["2023-03-25", 0.14436085381925287], ["2023-03-25", 0.18], ["2023-03-25", 0.5337358702052399], ["2023-03-26", 0.005800582601907375], ["2023-03-26", 0.013818636892175776], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-trump-is-about-to | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Vaush's video "Trump Is About To Get Arrẹsted" reach 180k views by 3/26 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-16 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on_ESPN:_Holloway_vs._Allen"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.4982949369379943], ["2023-03-20", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-20", 0.55754217105044], ["2023-03-20", 0.5887760736249573], ["2023-03-20", 0.6091672826612994], ["2023-03-20", 0.6692485300370017], ["2023-03-20", 0.6815249408685261], ["2023-03-20", 0.7011303693338512], ["2023-03-21", 0.5818306918954583... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-max-holloway-beat-arnold-allen | Holloway and Allen are scheduled to fight on April 15th at UFC on ESPN 44 in Kansas City, Missouri. If Holloway wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Alllen wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will ... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-16 | Will Max Holloway beat Arnold Allen? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-27 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.4051408049199092], ["2023-03-20", 0.46], ["2023-03-20", 0.4673483903136277], ["2023-03-20", 0.5389251915806349], ["2023-03-20", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-20", 0.5495134409380784], ["2023-03-20", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-22", 0.46269033026534695], ["2023-03-22", 0.49711697954701], ["2023-03-... | https://manifold.markets/MarkIngraham/biden-approval-325-higher-than-438 | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-27 | Biden approval 3/25 higher than 43.8 | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-20", 0.6258503314470817], ["2023-03-25", 0.710729864386246], ["2023-03-25", 0.728638300288935], ["2023-03-26", 0.8573338097022353], ["2023-03-26", 0.9649948102659542], ["2023-03-26", 0.9714169091218983], ["2023-03-26", 0.9995583690182732]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-maycee-barber-defeat-andrea-le | Lee and Barber are scheduled to fight on March 25th in San Antonio, Texas at UFC on ESPN 43. If Barber wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Lee wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N... | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Maycee Barber defeat Andrea Lee? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-20 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.30921233747012655], ["2023-03-20", 0.3331619593236383], ["2023-03-20", 0.35425460901869577], ["2023-03-20", 0.3654404435610214], ["2023-03-20", 0.49], ["2023-03-20", 0.5221080095659341], ["2023-03-20", 0.5355536664316713], ["2023-03-20", 0.6073531355220386], ["2023-03-20", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-... | https://manifold.markets/dgga/will-dariusirl-be-temporarilyperman | Resolves on 00:00 GMT April 1st. Resolves YES if Darius receives any kind of suspension before Close Date. Will resolve N/A if he does not get banned but streams fewer than 15 hours between now and April. | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will DariusIRL be temporarily/permanently suspended from Twitch before April | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-21 | 2023-03-20 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_20"] | BINARY | [["2023-03-20", 0.14848073706777296], ["2023-03-20", 0.15036550284551328], ["2023-03-20", 0.1830487207612823], ["2023-03-20", 0.18774034080483562], ["2023-03-20", 0.24294368546821754], ["2023-03-20", 0.28359619801556], ["2023-03-20", 0.33453672608432805], ["2023-03-20", 0.37174721189591103], ["2023-03-20", 0.4098360655... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/the-events-section-of-the-wikipedia-922e833bb9af | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_20 Bets will end at noon on March 21st. Will resolve at noon on March 22nd. An entry must have been on the Wikipedia page for at least 6 hours at the time of resolution. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-21 | The "Events" section of the Wikipedia entry for March 20th will include an event for 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-14 | 2023-03-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.541771436808135], ["2023-03-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-21", 0.5953647195121273], ["2023-03-21", 0.5981353480147885], ["2023-03-21", 0.6271830853694521], ["2023-03-21", 0.6295201041388709], ["2023-04-11", 0.19709976058054193], ["2023-04-11", 0.21], ["2023-04-11", 0.21294079698130436], ["2023-0... | https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/eth-low-within-48hr-of-shanghai | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-14 | ETH Low within 48hr of Shanghai | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-22 | 2023-03-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.5539151441447246], ["2023-03-21", 0.56], ["2023-03-21", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-03-21", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-03-21", 0.5700000000000001], ["2023-03-21", 0.5900750920404423], ["2023-03-21", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-21", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-21", 0.6099999999999998], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-united-states-win-the-2023 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-22 | Will the United States win the 2023 World Baseball Classic? | manifold | 0 |
2023-05-02 | 2023-03-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-21", 0.6197850945380129], ["2023-03-21", 0.6453717049641702], ["2023-03-21", 0.6895502571878863], ["2023-03-27", 0.5659442126009546], ["2023-03-31", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-03-31", 0.6410379975352128], ["2023-04-05", 0.5802194303567595], ["2023-04-05", 0.59000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/ForrestTaylor/will-tears-of-the-kingdom-have-full | You know, like in most Zelda games. We're talking complex dungeons here not the divine beasts, those were too small. Mar 20, 7:07pm: | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-05-03 | Will Tears of the Kingdom have full-fledged dungeons? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-21 | 2023-03-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.4745992878240837], ["2023-03-21", 0.5035359142785176], ["2023-03-21", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-21", 0.6489244002960743], ["2023-03-21", 0.6611196484163625], ["2023-03-21", 0.6741876959856336], ["2023-03-21", 0.6785383096259161], ["2023-03-21", 0.6829954604031976], ["2023-03-21", 0.68578198416456... | https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-2-0610ba10b2b3 | Will close at 3pm and resolve at 4pm | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-21 | Will the S&P close higher on March 21st than it closed on March 20th? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-20 | 2023-03-21 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-21", 0.18708252485490062], ["2023-03-21", 0.25], ["2023-03-21", 0.2632011214878758], ["2023-03-21", 0.32603588761456603], ["2023-03-21", 0.35326867537564244], ["2023-03-21", 0.3812785918897931], ["2023-03-21", 0.41693535545183175], ["2023-03-21", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-03-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-this-market-close-between-89-a | Yes if the price is within that range upon market close. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-20 | Will this market close between 89% and 91%? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-26 | 2023-03-25 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-25", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-26", 5.9385372736678424e-05]] | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-daieisho-win-the-2023-haru-bas | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-26 | Will Daieisho win the 2023 Haru Basho? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-28 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-26", 0.7383842611971535], ["2023-03-27", 0.728856311139459], ["2023-04-01", 0.7537283056037642], ["2023-04-02", 0.84], ["2023-04-02", 0.8500000000000002], ["2023-04-02", 0.8714113357520609], ["2023-04-03", 0.89], ["2023-04-03", 0.9055101898294275], ["2023-04-05", 0.8945723... | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictit-still-allow-trading | This question resolves the same as: If users can still place trades on PredictIt from March 9 through April 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Background PredictIt was See also | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-30 | Will PredictIt still allow trading through April 30? | manifold | 1 |
2023-03-31 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-27", 0.6419539224764209], ["2023-03-27", 0.7235722334054715], ["2023-03-28", 0.83], ["2023-03-28", 0.8452786272820191], ["2023-03-28", 0.8464846915498342], ["2023-03-28", 0.8533450487259459], ["2023-03-29", 0.8333181342260355], ["2023-03-30", 0.8402761740472652], ["2023-03... | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-so-why-do-you-supp | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-31 | Will Vaush's clip ""so why do you support ukraine?"" reach 10k views by 4/02 9 A.M. PST? | manifold | 1 |
2023-04-01 | 2023-03-26 | [] | BINARY | [["2023-03-26", 0.04305799648506156], ["2023-03-26", 0.16098381095831904], ["2023-03-26", 0.16170695121923495], ["2023-03-26", 0.16170695121923495], ["2023-03-26", 0.17], ["2023-03-26", 0.18999999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.21999999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.2865819638594047], ["2023-03-26", 0.3563309240307437], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/KnoxMLG/will-xqc-beat-forsens-time-by-april | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | WILL XQC BEAT FORSENS TIME BY APRIL | manifold | 0 |
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