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# Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline
People are talking about British economic decline.
Not just the decline from bestriding the world in the 19th century to today. A more recent, more profound decline, starting in the early 2000s, when it fell off the track of normal developed-economy growth. S... | Scott Alexander | 134953448 | Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline | acx |
# The Extinction Tournament
This month’s big news in forecasting: the Forecasting Research Institute has **[released the results of the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/635693acf15a3e2a14a56a4a/t/64abffe3f024747dd0e38d71/1688993798938/XPT.pdf)** (XPT). XPT was supposed to ... | Scott Alexander | 134996398 | The Extinction Tournament | acx |
# Berkeley Meetup On Sunday, Special Guest Philip Tetlock
**Why:** Philip Tetlock, co-author of *[Superforecasting](https://amzn.to/3XVhuAj)* and co-founder of the [Good Judgment Project](https://goodjudgment.com/) and the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/), is in town and has kindly ag... | Scott Alexander | 135264469 | Berkeley Meetup On Sunday, Special Guest Philip Tetlock | acx |
# Contra The xAI Alignment Plan
Elon Musk has a new AI company, xAI. I appreciate that he seems very concerned about alignment. From [his Twitter Spaces discussion](https://twitter.com/Twitter/status/1679256473191297026):
> I think I have been banging the drum on AI safety now for a long time. If I could press pause ... | Scott Alexander | 135082971 | Contra The xAI Alignment Plan | acx |
# Open Thread 285
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 135071985 | Open Thread 285 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Educated Mind
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember... | a reader | 123360040 | Your Book Review: The Educated Mind | acx |
# Contra The Social Model Of Disability
What is the Social Model Of Disability? I’ll let its proponents describe it in their own words (emphases and line breaks mine)
[The Social Model Of Disability Explained](https://www.thesocialcreatures.org/thecreaturetimes/the-social-model-of-disability) (top Google result for t... | Scott Alexander | 132516929 | Contra The Social Model Of Disability | acx |
# Why Match School And Student Rank?
[Matt Yglesias’ five-year old son asks](https://www.slowboring.com/p/19-thoughts-on-affirmative-action): why do we send the top students to the best colleges? Why not send the weakest students to the best colleges, since they need the most help? This is one of those questions that’... | Scott Alexander | 133991801 | Why Match School And Student Rank? | acx |
# Open Thread 284
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 134208454 | Open Thread 284 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Secret Government
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember... | a reader | 123358545 | Your Book Review: Secret Government | acx |
# Links For July 2023
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I wil... | Scott Alexander | 131032315 | Links For July 2023 | acx |
# Tales Of Takeover In CCF-World
[Tom Davidson’s](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds) *[Compute-Centric Framework](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds)* [report](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds) forecasts a continuous but fast ... | Scott Alexander | 127647897 | Tales Of Takeover In CCF-World | acx |
# Open Thread 283
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 132489537 | Open Thread 283 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Safe Enough?
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which... | a reader | 123357258 | Your Book Review: Safe Enough? | acx |
# Is There An Illusion Of Moral Decline?
*[Epistemic status: very uncertain about Part II; more convinced about Part III]*
**I.**
This is the big question in the paper *du jour*, **[The Illusion Of Moral Decline](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x)**, by Mastroianni and Gilbert (from here on: MG).
I... | Scott Alexander | 131849352 | Is There An Illusion Of Moral Decline? | acx |
# Sure, Whatever, Let's Try Another Contra Caplan On Mental Illness
**I.**
Bryan Caplan thinks he’s debating me about mental illness. He’s not. Sometimes he posts some thoughts he has been having about mental illness, with or without a sentence saying “this is part of my debate with Scott”. Then I write [a very long ... | Scott Alexander | 130568837 | Sure, Whatever, Let's Try Another Contra Caplan On Mental Illness | acx |
# Every Flashing Element On Your Site Alienates And Enrages Users
Everyone hates flashing banner ads, but maybe they’re a necessary evil. Creators want money, advertisers demand a certain level of visibility for their ad buys, maybe sites are willing to eat the cost in user goodwill. Fine. *But what’s everyone else’s ... | Scott Alexander | 103977425 | Every Flashing Element On Your Site Alienates And Enrages Users | acx |
# "Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine
I have an article summarizing attempts to forecast AI progress, including a five year check-in on the predictions in [Grace et al (2017)](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/08/ssc-journal-club-ai-timelines/). It’s not here, it's at [asteriskmag.com](https://asteriskmag.c... | Scott Alexander | 131243513 | "Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine | acx |
# Open Thread 282
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 131001863 | Open Thread 282 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Public Citizens
*[This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember wh... | a reader | 123352603 | Your Book Review: Public Citizens | acx |
# Davidson On Takeoff Speeds
The face of Mt. Everest is gradual and continuous; for each point on the mountain, the points 1 mm away aren’t too much higher or lower. But you still wouldn’t want to ski down it.
I thought about this when reading **[What A Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds](https://doc... | Scott Alexander | 127386375 | Davidson On Takeoff Speeds | acx |
# Open Thread 281
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 129268645 | Open Thread 281 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Njal’s Saga
**I.**
I found Njal’s Saga hard to follow. Halfway through, a friend reassured me it wasn’t my fault. The medieval Icelanders had erred in releasing it as a book. It should have been the world’s wackiest Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney spinoff[1](#footnote-1).
Remember, [medieval Iceland... | a reader | 123313560 | Your Book Review: Njal’s Saga | acx |
# Your Incentives Are Not The Same As Media Companies'
Unfortunately I hate many of you.
Only the ones with Twitter accounts. If you don’t have one of those, you’re fine. But if you do have one, there’s a good chance you said something which horribly offended me. You said everyone who believed X was an idiot and a Na... | Scott Alexander | 124524094 | Your Incentives Are Not The Same As Media Companies' | acx |
# Atlanta Meetup This Sunday
Source: <https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/kccygu/come_visit_georgia/>
I’m visiting family in Atlanta this week and should have time to make the local ACX meetup.
**When:** Sunday, June 18th @ 3:00 PM
**Where:** Bold Monk Brewing, 1737 Ellsworth Industrial Blvd NW, Suite D... | Scott Alexander | 128355407 | Atlanta Meetup This Sunday | acx |
# The Canal Papers
## The First Canal Paper
You know all the stuff we’ve been talking about here the past few years - [mental mountains](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/11/26/mental-mountains/), [trapped priors](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem), [relaxed beliefs under psychedel... | Scott Alexander | 123664324 | The Canal Papers | acx |
# Open Thread 280
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 127720058 | Open Thread 280 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Man’s Search for Meaning
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so re... | a reader | 123311883 | Your Book Review: Man’s Search for Meaning | acx |
# Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context
Sometimes people do a study and find that a particular correlation is r = 0.2, or a particular effect size is d = 1.1. Then an article tries to “put this in context”. “The study found r = 0.2, which for context is about the same as the degree to which the numbe... | Scott Alexander | 121236499 | Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context | acx |
# Assistant Dictator Book Club: America Against America
The year was 1988. A decade earlier, Deng Xiaoping had announced plans for China to liberalize. The first sparks of capitalism had been kindled. The CCP wanted to fan those sparks into economic superpowerdom. But the only country with experience being an economic... | Scott Alexander | 121657179 | Assistant Dictator Book Club: America Against America | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The Academic Job Market
*Original post: [Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird?](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-is-the-academic-job-market-so)*
## Table Of Contents
**1.** Comments With More Information On Academic Hiring
**2.** Comments About How Things Got This Way ... | Scott Alexander | 125816085 | Highlights From The Comments On The Academic Job Market | acx |
# Open Thread 279
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 126101627 | Open Thread 279 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Why Machines Will Never Rule the World
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a ... | a reader | 123527301 | Your Book Review: Why Machines Will Never Rule the World | acx |
# Links For May 2023
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will... | Scott Alexander | 124214962 | Links For May 2023 | acx |
# All Medications Are Insignificant In The Eyes Of God And Traditional Effect Size Criteria
SSRI antidepressants like Prozac were first developed in the 1980s and 1990s. The first round of studies, sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, showed they worked great! But skeptics found substantial bias in these early trial... | Scott Alexander | 124313293 | All Medications Are Insignificant In The Eyes Of God And Traditional Effect Size Criteria | acx |
# Are Woo Non-Responders Defective?
Seen on Twitter:
I answered that I’d tried plenty of woo, I think persistently enough to count as a good-faith effort, and gotten zero results.
(here “woo” means various more-or-less-alternative wellness and spirituality practices. Typical examples would be yoga, “bodywork”, tai c... | Scott Alexander | 123450942 | Are Woo Non-Responders Defective? | acx |
# Open Thread 278
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 124523247 | Open Thread 278 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Lying for Money
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember wh... | a reader | 123307142 | Your Book Review: Lying for Money | acx |
# Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
## I. What Is The Hypergamy Hypothesis?
“Female hypergamy” (from now on, just “hypergamy”) is a supposed tendency for women to seek husbands who are higher-status than themselves. Arguing about educational hypergamy (women seeking husbands who are more educated than them... | Scott Alexander | 123444805 | Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Mantic Monday 5/22/23
## Whales Vs. Minnows Goes Wrong
Manifold is a play money prediction market. Its intended purpose is to have fun and estimate the probabilities of important events. But instead of betting on important events, you might choose to speculate on trivialities. And instead of having fun, you might c... | Scott Alexander | 122190871 | Mantic Monday 5/22/23 | acx |
# Open Thread 277
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 122981937 | Open Thread 277 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2023 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll as... | Scott Alexander | 122567088 | Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism | acx |
# Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird?
[*Related: [Dualization](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/07/28/non-dual-awareness/)*]
**Bret Devereaux [writes](https://acoup.blog/2023/04/28/collections-academic-ranks-explained-or-what-on-earth-is-an-adjunct/)****[here](https://acoup.blog/2023/04/28/collections-academic-ra... | Scott Alexander | 121221132 | Why Is The Academic Job Market So Weird? | acx |
# Galton, Ehrlich, Buck
**I.**
Adam Mastroianni [has a great review of](https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/how-to-keep-cakes-moist-and-cause) *[Memories Of My Life](https://experimentalhistory.substack.com/p/how-to-keep-cakes-moist-and-cause),* the autobiography of Francis Galton. Mastroianni centers his piec... | Scott Alexander | 98798276 | Galton, Ehrlich, Buck | acx |
# Open Thread 276
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 121447560 | Open Thread 276 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality
*Original post: [Replication Attempt - Bisexuality And Long COVID](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/replication-attempt-bisexuality-and)*
**Table of Contents**
**1.** Summary Of Best Comments And Overall Updates
**2.** Comments Proposing Explanation... | Scott Alexander | 120384485 | Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices
*Original post: [Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/change-my-mind-density-increases)*
**Table Of Contents:**
**1.** Comments About Whether Density Causes Desirability
**2.** Comment... | Scott Alexander | 119545176 | Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices | acx |
# Constitutional AI: RLHF On Steroids
## What Is Constitutional AI?
AIs like GPT-4 go through several different[1](#footnote-1) types of training. First, they train on giant text corpuses in order to work at all. Later, they go through a process called “reinforcement learning through human feedback” (RLHF) which trai... | Scott Alexander | 118178440 | Constitutional AI: RLHF On Steroids | acx |
# Open Thread 275
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 120009136 | Open Thread 275 | acx |
# Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
**Why:** Because we’re having [another round of spring meetups](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/spring-meetups-everywhere-2023), and Berkeley is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because I’ll be attending, as will Meetups Czar Skyler. Other meetups this weekend include Chi... | Scott Alexander | 119589014 | Berkeley Meetup This Saturday | acx |
# Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality
**I.**
Many comments in [yesterday’s post about self-identified bisexuals getting long COVID](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/replication-attempt-bisexuality-and) centered on a concern that self-identified bisexuals don’t really date both sexes, a... | Scott Alexander | 118987051 | Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality | acx |
# Replication Attempt: Bisexuality And Long COVID
I learned from [Pirate Wires](https://www.piratewires.com/p/bisexuals-long-covid) that CDC data show bisexuals were about 50% more likely than heterosexuals to report long COVID.
Is this just because more women than men are bisexual, and more women than men get long C... | Scott Alexander | 105543018 | Replication Attempt: Bisexuality And Long COVID | acx |
# Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices
***[UPDATE:** I now think this post is an oversimplification, and that this effect is either inconsistent or at least takes long enough that we can ignore it for most practical purposes. See [Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Price... | Scott Alexander | 106183108 | Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices | acx |
# Open Thread 274
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 118440140 | Open Thread 274 | acx |
# The Psychology Of Fantasy
In the sadder corners of the Internet, people daydream about getting isekai’d: dying in a way that teleports them to the fantasy universe, where they get to spend all their time fighting dragons.
Some of us are already close. The local six year old, between her video games, books, and tabl... | Scott Alexander | 116456698 | The Psychology Of Fantasy | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Nerds And Hipsters
*Original post: [Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-kriss-on-nerds-and-hipsters)*
**Table of contents:**
1: Comments By The Author Of The Original Post
2: Comments With Strong Opinions On The Definition Of Nerds, Gee... | Scott Alexander | 115987441 | Highlights From The Comments On Nerds And Hipsters | acx |
# Mantic Monday 4/24/23
## Can AIs Predict The Future? By Which We Mean The Past?
If we asked GPT-4 to play a prediction market, how would it do?
Actual GPT-4 probably would just give us some boring boilerplate about how the future is uncertain and it’s irresponsible to speculate. But what if AI researchers took som... | Scott Alexander | 117086422 | Mantic Monday 4/24/23 | acx |
# Open Thread 273
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 116886884 | Open Thread 273 | acx |
# Links For April 2023
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I wi... | Scott Alexander | 115497338 | Links For April 2023 | acx |
# Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters
Sam Kriss [has a post on nerds and hipsters.](https://samkriss.substack.com/p/all-the-nerds-are-dead) I think he gets the hipsters right, but bungles the nerds.
Hipsters, he says, are an information sorting algorithm. They discover things, then place them on the altar of Fame so e... | Scott Alexander | 115233868 | Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On IRBs
[Original post: [Book Review - From Oversight To Overkill](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-from-oversight-to-overkill)]
### Table of Contents
**1: Comments From The Author Of The Book
2: Stories From People In The Trenches
3: Stories From People In Other I... | Scott Alexander | 115295290 | Highlights From The Comments On IRBs | acx |
# Open Thread 272
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 115346746 | Open Thread 272 | acx |
# Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill
## I. Risks May Include AIDS, Smallpox, And Death
Dr. Rob Knight studies how skin bacteria jump from person to person. In one 2009 study, meant to simulate human contact, he used a Q-tip to cotton swab first one subject’s mouth (or skin), then another’s, to see how many bacte... | Scott Alexander | 112300241 | Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill | acx |
# Spring Meetups Everywhere 2023
Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than usual so that irregular attendees can attend. This is one of those times.
This year we have spring meetups planned in over eighty cities, ... | Scott Alexander | 113930946 | Spring Meetups Everywhere 2023 | acx |
# Open Thread 271
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 113728154 | Open Thread 271 | acx |
# Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias
**I.**
Strange things are done in the midnight sun, say the poets who wrote of old. The Arctic trails have their secret tales that would make your blood run cold. The Northern Lights have seen queer sights, but the queerest they ever did see are chronicled in *[The Arctic Hysterias... | Scott Alexander | 109325851 | Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias | acx |
# Most Technologies Aren't Races
*[Disclaimer: I’m not an AI policy person, the people who are have thought about these scenarios in more depth, and if they disagree with this I’ll link to their rebuttals*]
Some people argue against delaying AI because it might make China (or someone else) “win” the AI “race”.
But s... | Scott Alexander | 108490927 | Most Technologies Aren't Races | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Telemedicine Regulations
[*Original post: [The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-government-is-making-telemedicine)*]
**Table Of Contents:**
1: Isn’t drug addiction very bad?
2: Is telemedicine worse than regul... | Scott Alexander | 112094919 | Highlights From The Comments On Telemedicine Regulations | acx |
# Open Thread 270
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 112117863 | Open Thread 270 | acx |
# MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy
The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy goes:
1. The situation is completely uncertain. We can’t predict anything about it. We have literally *no idea* how it could go.
2. Therefore, it’ll be fine.
You’re not missing anything. It’s not supposed to make sense; that’s why it’s a fallacy.
... | Scott Alexander | 111062243 | MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy | acx |
# The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again
*[I’m writing this quickly to deal with an evolving situation and I’m not sure I fully understand the intricacies of this law - please forgive any inaccuracies. I’ll edit them out as I learn about them.]*
Telemedicine is when you see a doctor (or nur... | Scott Alexander | 111379839 | The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again | acx |
# Turing Test
*The year is 2028, and this is* Turing Test!*, the game show that separates man from machine! Our star tonight is Dr. Andrea Mann, a generative linguist at University of California, Berkeley. She’ll face five hidden contestants, code-named Earth, Water, Air, Fire, and Spirit. One will be a human telling ... | Scott Alexander | 105971999 | Turing Test | acx |
# Open Thread 269
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 110831296 | Open Thread 269 | acx |
# Book Review: Paper Belt On Fire
**I.**
My college English professor used to say that all great books had four things:
* A quest to discover whether the CIA killed your father
* A hagiography of Peter Thiel
* A theory about the rise and fall of civilizational dynamism
* An advertisement for the author’s hedge fund
... | Scott Alexander | 108525481 | Book Review: Paper Belt On Fire | acx |
# Half An Hour Before Dawn In San Francisco
I try to avoid San Francisco. When I go, I surround myself with people; otherwise I have morbid thoughts. But a morning appointment and miscalculated transit time find me alone on the SF streets half an hour before dawn.
The skyscrapers get to me. I’m an heir to Art Deco an... | Scott Alexander | 109502867 | Half An Hour Before Dawn In San Francisco | acx |
# Open Thread 268
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 109522445 | Open Thread 268 | acx |
# Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?
*[Related: [Why Are Transgender People Immune To Optical Illusions?](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-people-immune-to-optical-illusions/)]*
**I.**
Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is a category of connective tissue disorder; it usually involves s... | Scott Alexander | 102968563 | Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints? | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 3/23
This is the trimonthly (?) classifieds thread. Advertise whatever you want in the comments.
We’re going to try keeping it organized again, so please respond to the appropriate top-level comment: **Employment, Dating, Read My Blog** (also includes podcasts, books, etc)**, Consume My Product/S... | Scott Alexander | 108507802 | Classifieds Thread 3/23 | acx |
# Why I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)
*(see also [Katja Grace](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/counterarguments-to-the-basic-ai) and [Will Eden’s](https://twitter.com/WilliamAEden/status/1630690003830599680) related cases)*
The average online debate about AI risk pits someone who thinks t... | Scott Alexander | 107848270 | Why I Am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People) | acx |
# Open Thread 267
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 108024751 | Open Thread 267 | acx |
# Links For March 2023
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I wi... | Scott Alexander | 106497294 | Links For March 2023 | acx |
# Give Up Seventy Percent Of The Way Through The Hyperstitious Slur Cascade
**I.**
Someone asks: why is “Jap” a slur? It’s the natural shortening of “Japanese person”, just as “Brit” is the natural shortening of “British person”. Nobody says “Brit” is a slur. Why should “Jap” be?
My understanding: originally it wasn... | Scott Alexander | 100598200 | Give Up Seventy Percent Of The Way Through The Hyperstitious Slur Cascade | acx |
# Issue Two Of Asterisk
…the new-ish rationalist / effective altruist magazine, is up [here](https://asteriskmag.com/). It’s the food issue. I’m not in this one - my unsuitability to have food-related opinions is second only to @eigenrobot’s - but some of my friends are. Articles include:
* **[The Virtue Of Wonder:](... | Scott Alexander | 107096145 | Issue Two Of Asterisk | acx |
# Kelly Bets On Civilization
Scott Aaronson [makes the case](https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=7042) for being less than maximally hostile to AI development:
> Here’s an example I think about constantly: activists and intellectuals of the 70s and 80s felt absolutely sure that they were doing the right thing to battle nuc... | Scott Alexander | 104605044 | Kelly Bets On Civilization | acx |
# Open Thread 266
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 106702518 | Open Thread 266 | acx |
# Impact Market Mini-Grants Update
[Impact markets](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/impact-markets-the-annoying-details) are a charity analogy to private equity. Instead of prospectively giving grants to projects they hope will work, charitable foundations retrospectively give grants to projects that *did* work.... | Scott Alexander | 106267607 | Impact Market Mini-Grants Update | acx |
# Against Ice Age Civilizations
There’s a good debate about this [on the subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/11bnzgw/no_there_wasnt_an_advanced_civilization_12000/); see also [Robin Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/lost-advanced-civilizationshtml) and [Samo Burja](https://www.palladiumm... | Scott Alexander | 105276825 | Against Ice Age Civilizations | acx |
# OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond"
## Planning For AGI And Beyond
Imagine ExxonMobil releases a statement on climate change. It’s a great statement! They talk about how preventing climate change is their core value. They say that they’ve talked to all the world’s top environmental activists at length, listened ... | Scott Alexander | 104927790 | OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond" | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness
*[Original post: [The Geography Of Madness](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-geography-of-madness)]*
**Thomas Reilly (author of [Rational Psychiatry](https://rationalpsychiatry.substack.com/)) [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bo... | Scott Alexander | 104578961 | Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness | acx |
# Open Thread 265
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 105272193 | Open Thread 265 | acx |
# Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
I still dream of running an ACX Grants round using impact certificates, but I want to run a lower-stakes test of the technology first. In conjunction with the Manifold Markets team, we’re announcing the Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants, a $20,000 grants round for forecasting p... | Scott Alexander | 103936664 | Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants | acx |
# Book Review: The Geography Of Madness
**I.**
Around the wide world, all cultures share a few key features. Anthropologists debate the precise extent, but the basics are always there. Language. Tools. Marriage. Family. Ritual. Music. And penis-stealing witches.
Nobody knows when the penis-stealing witches began the... | Scott Alexander | 102517490 | Book Review: The Geography Of Madness | acx |
# Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
To celebrate the fifth anniversary of my old blog, in 2018, [I made some predictions about what the next five years would be like](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/15/five-more-years/).
This was a different experience than my other predictions. Predicting five years out doesn'... | Scott Alexander | 103718826 | Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 | acx |
# Open Thread 264
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 103961530 | Open Thread 264 | acx |
# Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
## Is Sperm Count Declining?
People say it is.
[Levine et al 2017](https://academic.oup.com/humupd/article/23/6/646/4035689) looks at 185 studies of 42935 men between 1973 and 2011, and concludes that average sperm count declined from 99 million sperm/ml at ... | Scott Alexander | 103404975 | Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Trying Again On Fideism
*[apologies for an issue encountered when sending out this post; some of you may have gotten it twice]*
Thanks to Chris Kavanagh, who wrote [an extremely kind and reasonable comment](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/contra-kavanaugh-on-fideism/comment/12798330) in response to my [Contra... | Scott Alexander | 103157081 | Trying Again On Fideism | acx |
# Contra Kavanagh On Fideism
**I.**
I’ve been looking into the world of YouTube streamers; if you want to make it big, you need to have a beef with some other online celebrity. Fine; I choose Chris Kavanagh, who tweeted about me recently:
This is an admirably concise encapsulation of everything I despise, so I want ... | Scott Alexander | 102885079 | Contra Kavanagh On Fideism | acx |
# Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23
In honor of Valentine’s Day, this installment of Mantic Monday will focus on attempted clever engineering solutions to romance. We’ll start with the usual prediction markets, then move on to other types of algorithmic and financial schemes. Normal content will resume next time around.
## Da... | Scott Alexander | 102366207 | Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23 | acx |
# Open Thread 263
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 102601008 | Open Thread 263 | acx |
# Links For February 2023
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I... | Scott Alexander | 93150752 | Links For February 2023 | acx |
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