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# Book Review Contest 2022 Winners
Thanks to everyone who entered or voted in the book review contest. The winners are:
* **1st:** ***[The Dawn Of Everything](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-dawn-of-everything)**,* reviewed by Erik Hoel*.* Erik is a neuroscientist and author of the recent n... | Scott Alexander | 71457020 | Book Review Contest 2022 Winners | acx |
# The Prophet And Caesar's Wife
**I.**
The Prophet in his wanderings came to Cragmacnois, and found the Bishop living in a golden palace and drinking fine wines, when all around him was bitter poverty. The Bishop spent so long feasting each day that he had grown almost too fat for his fine silk robes.
“Woe unto you!... | Scott Alexander | 67986319 | The Prophet And Caesar's Wife | acx |
# Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability
The typical neoliberal defense of self-made billionaires goes: entrepreneurs and other businesspeople create a lot of value. EG an entrepreneur who invents/produces/markets a better car has helped people get where they’re going faster, more safely, with less pollution, etc. ... | Scott Alexander | 68526927 | Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability | acx |
# Open Thread 239
**1.** I've decided to publish ten more book reviews the next ten Fridays. The new finalists are . . . haha, just kidding! The 2022 Book Review Contest is *over.* Please vote for your favorite [here](https://forms.gle/1SoLaZhR3ESN1CFA6). No fancy voting system this year, just pick one. In case you’ve... | Scott Alexander | 70705925 | Open Thread 239 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Kora In Hell
*[This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you... | Scott Alexander | 70509069 | Your Book Review: Kora In Hell | acx |
# Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places
Thanks to everyone who responded to my request for ACX meetup organizers. Volunteers have arranged meetups in 205 cities around the world, including Penryn, Cornwall and Baghdad, Iraq.
You can find the list below, in the following order:
1. Africa & Middle East
2. Asia-Pacif... | mingyuan | 70177923 | Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF
(Original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-what-we-owe-the-future))
**1:** Petey [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-what-we-owe-the-future/comment/8565975):
> When I think of happiness 0.01, I do... | Scott Alexander | 70086027 | Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF | acx |
# Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions
I have an essay that my friends won’t let me post because it’s too spicy. It would be called something like *How To Respond To Common Criticisms Of Effective Altruism (In Your Head Only, Definitely Never Do This In Real Life),* and it starts:
> **Q:** I don’t approve of ... | Scott Alexander | 69906838 | Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions | acx |
# Book Review: What We Owe The Future
**I.**
An academic once asked me if I was writing a book. I said no, I was able to communicate just fine by blogging. He looked at me like I was a moron, and explained that writing a book isn’t about communicating ideas. Writing a book is an excuse to have a public relations camp... | Scott Alexander | 69594204 | Book Review: What We Owe The Future | acx |
# Open Thread 238
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 69741124 | Open Thread 238 | acx |
# Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance
*[This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for sever... | Scott Alexander | 69435385 | Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
*(see original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures))*
---
**1:** [Maximum Limelihood Estimator](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures/comment/8287212) writes:
> I firmly believe that cycles don'... | Scott Alexander | 68682708 | Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures | acx |
# Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference
***Followup to:** **[Why Do Test Scores Plateau](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/01/13/why-do-test-scores-plateau/); [Ritalin Works But School Isn’t Worth Paying Attention To](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/study-ritalin-works-but-school-isnt)***
## Why Do Ski... | Scott Alexander | 67202524 | Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference | acx |
# Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers
There are ACX-affiliated meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the blog. Since learning that, I've tried to make a big deal about it on the blog at least once annually, and it's... | mingyuan | 68757115 | Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers | acx |
# Mantic Monday 8/15/22
## The Passing Of PredictIt
In 2014, Victoria University in New Zealand struck a deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the agency that regulates some markets in the US. CFTC would let Victoria set up a prediction market - at the time a relatively new idea - for research purposes ... | Scott Alexander | 68294083 | Mantic Monday 8/15/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 237
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 68680633 | Open Thread 237 | acx |
# Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune
*[This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. W... | Scott Alexander | 68422934 | Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune | acx |
# Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything?
There’s a popular saying among religious apologists:
> Once people stop believing in God, the problem is not that they will believe in nothing; rather, the problem is that they will believe anything.
Big talk, although I notice that this is practically always attributed t... | Scott Alexander | 64396629 | Will Nonbelievers Really Believe Anything? | acx |
# A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures
David Chapman’s [Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths In Subculture Evolution](https://meaningness.com/geeks-mops-sociopaths) is rightfully a classic, but it doesn’t match my own experience. Either through good luck or poor observational skills, I’ve never seen a lot of sociopath takeovers. Ins... | Scott Alexander | 67112750 | A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures | acx |
# Why Not Slow AI Progress?
## The Broader Fossil Fuel Community
Imagine if oil companies and environmental activists were both considered part of the broader “fossil fuel community”. Exxon and Shell would be “fossil fuel capabilities”; Greenpeace and the Sierra Club would be “fossil fuel safety” - two equally belove... | Scott Alexander | 64440194 | Why Not Slow AI Progress? | acx |
# Open Thread 236
**1:** Lots of people have asked for my thoughts on [CFTC shutting down PredictIt](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22). I’ll write something on this next Monday, but for now I tentatively agree the conclusions of [this Karlstack article](https://karlstack.substack.com/p/a-textbook-c... | Scott Alexander | 67643762 | Open Thread 236 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Exhaustion
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’v... | Scott Alexander | 67331648 | Your Book Review: Exhaustion | acx |
# Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition
Alexandros M [expresses concern](https://twitter.com/alexandrosM/status/1554756886057979904) about my post [on Neom](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-8122).
My post mostly just makes fun of Neom. My main argument against it is absurdity: a skyscraper the height of... | Scott Alexander | 67070724 | Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition | acx |
# Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries
So I hear there’s an underpopulation crisis now.
I think the strong version of this claim - that underpopulation could cause human extinction - is 100% false.
The weaker version - that it could make life unpleasant in some countries - is true. But I don’t think it’s at the ... | Scott Alexander | 57093748 | Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries | acx |
# Model City Monday 8/1/22
## Neom Neom Neom
Suppose you are an oil-rich country. You drill the oil and get very rich, for now. But someday you will run out of oil, or the world will switch to green sustainable energy, and then you will stop being very rich. Seems bad.
There are two main classes of solution to this ... | Scott Alexander | 64974800 | Model City Monday 8/1/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 235
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 66592940 | Open Thread 235 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Viral
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve rea... | Scott Alexander | 66306332 | Your Book Review: Viral | acx |
# Links For July
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will hav... | Scott Alexander | 64579193 | Links For July | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
**1:** I said in the original post that I wrote this because I knew someone would write the opposite article (that organizations accept specific criticism in order to fend off paradigmatic criticism), and then later Zvi did write an article kind of ... | Scott Alexander | 65879375 | Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism | acx |
# Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations
The [Forer Effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnum_effect) is a trick used by astrologers, psychics, and social psychologists. Given a list of statements [like these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnum_effect#Early_research):
> 1. You have a great need for other p... | Scott Alexander | 65391645 | Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations | acx |
# ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI
### I. There Is No Shining Mirror
I met a researcher who works on “aligning” GPT-3. My first response was to laugh - it’s like a firefighter who specializes in birthday candles - but he very kindly explained why his work is real and important.
He focuses on questions that earlier... | Scott Alexander | 50046004 | ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI | acx |
# Open Thread 234
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 65583143 | Open Thread 234 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several ... | Scott Alexander | 65242740 | Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle | acx |
# Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
**I.**
The voters wanted *[Anti-Politics Machine](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-anti-politics)* to be a Book Review Contest Finalist this year, and I listened. But I wasn’t happy about it. I hate having to post criticism of EA.
Not because EA is bad ... | Scott Alexander | 58139252 | Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism | acx |
# Open Thread 233
**1:** Instead of asking me “Why isn’t effective altruism spending its money on X?” all the time, consider entering Open Philanthropy Project’s [Cause Exploration](https://www.causeexplorationprizes.com/) contest, where they will give you up to $25,000 for thinking of Xs they should be spending their... | Scott Alexander | 64564001 | Open Thread 233 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. Wh... | Scott Alexander | 64253212 | Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind | acx |
# Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
I said last year that I’d like to try running this year’s [ACX Grants](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results) through impact markets. Since then, some people have expressed interest in the technical implementation, and - to nobody’s surprise more than my own - ... | Scott Alexander | 63311485 | Impact Markets: The Annoying Details | acx |
# Book Review: The Man From The Future
John von Neumann invented the digital computer. The fields of game theory and cellular automata. Important pieces of modern economics, set theory, and particle physics. A substantial part of the technology behind the atom and hydrogen bombs. Several whole fields of mathematics I ... | Scott Alexander | 62533781 | Book Review: The Man From The Future | acx |
# Mantic Monday 7/11/22
## Curtains For Trump?
The original case for formal forecasting grew out of pundits often being confident and wrong. And nowhere have pundits been wrong more often than when they predict that the newest scandal will end Donald Trump’s career once and for all.
Source: [KnowYourMeme](https://kn... | Scott Alexander | 63621027 | Mantic Monday 7/11/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 232
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 63477436 | Open Thread 232 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Outlier
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’... | Scott Alexander | 63203109 | Your Book Review: The Outlier | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike
Thanks to the 750 of you who commented on [the homicide spike post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike) (as of last weekend when I collated these highlights). I don’t have enough space here to address everything, but here ... | Scott Alexander | 61807332 | Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike | acx |
# Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works
Yesterday I wrote about [bottlenecks to learning](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/study-ritalin-works-but-school-isnt). I wanted to discuss the effectiveness of homework. If it works well, that would suggest students are bottlenecked on examples and repetition. If it works ... | Scott Alexander | 62290136 | Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works | acx |
# Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To
Recent study, Pelham et al: [The Effect Of Stimulant Medication On The Learning Of Academic Curricula In Children With ADHD](https://ynet-images1.yit.co.il/picserver5/wcm_upload_files/2022/06/01/Sk3iwoV009/Pelham_et_al_2022.pdf).
It’s gotten popular b... | Scott Alexander | 62255963 | Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To | acx |
# Open Thread 231
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 62453057 | Open Thread 231 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Internationalists
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months.... | Scott Alexander | 62111294 | Your Book Review: The Internationalists | acx |
# Links For June
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will hav... | Scott Alexander | 60718618 | Links For June | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
[Original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko)]
**1:**
[Nifty775 writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko/comment/7300505):
> This doesn't address allegations that many of California's homeless are... | Scott Alexander | 61120327 | Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko | acx |
# What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?
In [my review of](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko) *[San Fransicko](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko)*, I mentioned that it was hard to separate the effect of San Francisco’s local policies from the general 2020 spike... | Scott Alexander | 61103156 | What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike? | acx |
# Model City Monday 6/27/22
## Goodbye, ZEDE Law
The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory. Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting pro... | Scott Alexander | 61400433 | Model City Monday 6/27/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 230
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 61259637 | Open Thread 230 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one o... | Scott Alexander | 60978211 | Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy | acx |
# Book Review: San Fransicko
Last month [I discussed the platforms of](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/california-gubernatorial-candidates) twenty-six candidates for California governor. One candidate, author and activist Michael Shellenberger, objected to my characterization of him, so I read his book *[San Fra... | Scott Alexander | 59053420 | Book Review: San Fransicko | acx |
# Open Thread 229
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 60242244 | Open Thread 229 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several m... | Scott Alexander | 59941059 | Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy | acx |
# Peer Review: Nightmares
*I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, [Lorien Psychiatry](https://lorienpsych.com/). Every time I post something, people here have made good comments, so I want to try using you all as peer review.*
*Please give me comments on typos, places where ... | Scott Alexander | 56582901 | Peer Review: Nightmares | acx |
# Mantic Monday 6/13/22
It’s been a while since we’ve done one of these, hopefully no major new crises started while we were . . . oh. Darn.
### Mantic Monkey
Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&main-feed&search=monkeypox) 17000 cases and 400 deaths from monkeypox this year. But ... | Scott Alexander | 59310694 | Mantic Monday 6/13/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 228
**1:** Correction: the graph on “[Against ‘There Are Two X-Wing Parties](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-there-are-two-x-wing-parties?s=w)’” was weird, see [this comment](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-there-are-two-x-wing-parties/comment/7022680?s=w) for why. I’ve edited... | Scott Alexander | 59217811 | Open Thread 228 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months... | Scott Alexander | 58900472 | Your Book Review: The Dawn Of Everything | acx |
# Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling
**I.**
Previously: [I predicted](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-bet-ai-size-solves-flubs?s=w) that DALL-E’s many flaws would be fixed quickly in future updates. As evidence, I cited Gary Marcus’ lists of GPT’s flaws, most of which got fixed quickly in future updates.
... | Scott Alexander | 58486941 | Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling | acx |
# Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
One of my least favorite political tropes is the claim that "America has two left-wing parties" or "America has two right-wing parties" or "both major parties are socialist" or however else you want frame this. The argument goes that even the Democrats aren't truly left (or eve... | Scott Alexander | 58628984 | Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties" | acx |
# Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
Matt Yglesias has written a couple of posts ([1](https://www.slowboring.com/p/republicans-have-changed-a-lot-since?s=r), [2](https://www.slowboring.com/p/shifting-left?s=r)) on the subject of this meme (originally by Colin Wright, recently signal-boosted by Elon Musk):
He... | Scott Alexander | 56752004 | Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster? | acx |
# My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs
On [A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-asking-robots-to-design?s=w), I described how DALL-E gets confused easily and makes silly mistakes. But I also wrote that:
> I’m not going to make the mistake of saying these p... | Scott Alexander | 58005711 | My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs | acx |
# It's Bad On Purpose To Make You Click
As you travel the twists of Twitter
As you pass through the Lands of Zuck
And the frogs and the pinks overwhelm you with links
And the links overwhelmingly suck
When the Redditors ask if you've read it
When the TikTokkers talk and tic
Hold this admonition close to yo... | Scott Alexander | 58296564 | It's Bad On Purpose To Make You Click | acx |
# Open Thread 227
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 58134244 | Open Thread 227 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Castrato
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you... | Scott Alexander | 57854634 | Your Book Review: The Castrato | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 6/2022
This is the bimonthly (?) classifieds thread. Advertise whatever you want in the comments.
We’re going to try keeping it organized again, so please respond to the appropriate top-level comment: **Employment, Dating, Read My Blog** (also includes podcasts, books, etc)**, Consume My Product/... | Scott Alexander | 57604539 | Classifieds Thread 6/2022 | acx |
# Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture
### Introduction
Thanks to everyone who waited two years for me to get around to this.
In 2018, thanks to the 8,000 of you who filled out the Slate Star Codex Reader Survey, I discovered that higher birth order siblings were much more likely to read this blog than later-born... | Scott Alexander | 56983266 | Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture | acx |
# A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows
I love stained glass. Not so much your usual suburban house stained glass with a picture of lilies. The good stuff. Cathedral windows, Art Nouveau, Art Deco. Why did we stop doing that? I blame [the conspiracy](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/whither-tar... | Scott Alexander | 57243633 | A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows | acx |
# Open Thread 226
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 57176960 | Open Thread 226 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several mon... | Scott Alexander | 56751267 | Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine | acx |
# In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement
**1:**
The New York Times has [an article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/17/magazine/antipsychotic-medications-mental-health.html) out on the [Hearing Voices Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hearing_Voices_Movement) - ie people with hallucinations... | Scott Alexander | 55407058 | In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement | acx |
# California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
California is the home of Alphabet Inc, so it’s symbolically appropriate that we have twenty-six candidates in this year’s gubernatorial primary. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will get bored after looking into two or three. Not us! We are going to do our ... | Scott Alexander | 56015946 | California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z | acx |
# Willpower, Human and Machine
Two paragraphs from the [mesa-optimizers post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/deceptively-aligned-mesa-optimizers?s=w), which I quoted again in the adaptation-executors post:
> Consider evolution, optimizing the fitness of animals. For a long time, it did so very mechanically, in... | Scott Alexander | 54933434 | Willpower, Human and Machine | acx |
# Open Thread 225
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 56161617 | Open Thread 225 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Making Nature
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When yo... | Scott Alexander | 55847444 | Your Book Review: Making Nature | acx |
# Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety
**1: What is silexan?**
There are dozens of natural supplements that purport to treat anxiety. Most have a few small sketchy studies backing them up. Together, they form a big amorphous mass of claims that nobody has the patience to sift through or care about.
But recently sile... | Scott Alexander | 53352199 | Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety | acx |
# Link: Troof On Nootropics
Should have signal-boosted this earlier, forgot, sorry.
The author of the blog [Troof](https://troof.blog/) sort of [replicated](https://troof.blog/posts/nootropics/) my [2020 nootropics survey](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nootropics-survey-2020-results?s=w). But instead of anoth... | Scott Alexander | 54984521 | Link: Troof On Nootropics | acx |
# Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws
**I.**
From the Dynomight blog: [You, Your Parents, And The Hotness Of Who You Marry](https://dynomight.net/hotness/).
They start with a traditional situation: some romance novel heroine wants to marry a tall, dark stranger. But her parents want her to marry a much older nobleman/d... | Scott Alexander | 53770706 | Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws | acx |
# Open Thread 224
**1:** There’s a great new article out on effective altruism and the Carrick Flynn campaign: [The Esoteric Social Movement Behind This Cycle’s Most Expensive House Race](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/12/carrick-flynn-save-world-congress-00031959). “Flynn . . . remains confident that ... | Scott Alexander | 54926027 | Open Thread 224 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain
[*This is one of the finalists in the 2022 book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several m... | Scott Alexander | 54821121 | Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain | acx |
# Book Review: The Gervais Principle
**I.**
*The Gervais Principle*, by postrationalist heresiarch Venkatesh Rao, claims to be a business book.
It claims a lot of things, actually. According to its introduction:
> By my estimate, the material in this book has already triggered . . . hazardous reflection for thousan... | Scott Alexander | 53275270 | Book Review: The Gervais Principle | acx |
# Mantic Monday 5/9/22
## Warcasting
Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since [my last post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-32122?s=w) April 18:
1. [Will at least three of six big cities fall by June 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9941/russia-takeover-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june/): *... | Scott Alexander | 54209574 | Mantic Monday 5/9/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 223
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 53968986 | Open Thread 223 | acx |
# Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
**Why:** Because we’re having [spring meetups in 70 cities](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/spring-meetups-in-seventy-cities?s=w), and Berkeley is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because I’ll be able to attend.
**When:** Saturday, May 7, 1:00 PM.
**Where:** UC Berkeley... | Scott Alexander | 53690526 | Berkeley Meetup This Saturday | acx |
# Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's?
This keeps coming up. When I was first considering moving to Substack, I [asked my readers what they thought](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/i10p4m/survey_on_moving_ssc_to_substack/). They thought various things, but one of them was they hate... | Scott Alexander | 49763926 | Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's? | acx |
# Every Bay Area House Party
You walk in. The wall decorations vaguely suggest psychedelia. The music is pounding, head-splitting, amelodious. Everyone is struggling to speak over it. Everyone assumes everyone else likes it.
You flee to the room furthest from the music source. Three or four guys are sitting in a circ... | Scott Alexander | 53013020 | Every Bay Area House Party | acx |
# Open Thread 222
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. You can also talk at the unofficial ACX community [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), or [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/inde... | Scott Alexander | 53178258 | Open Thread 222 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping
**I: Xi’s Rise To Power
II: Censorship
III: Anti-Corruption And Centralization
IV: Miscellaneous**
### I. Rise To Power
— [Erusian](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/dictator-book-club-xi-jinping/comment/5921815) on Xi’s rise:
> *> “Why did Xi succeed at gathe... | Scott Alexander | 52748890 | Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping | acx |
# Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis
*[epistemic status: I didn’t understand this book. Think of this review as detailing the ways I didn’t understand it and hypothesizing what certain parts might mean, and not as an attempt to summarize/re-explain something I understand well]*
**I.**
Re... | Scott Alexander | 52650620 | Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis | acx |
# Open Thread 221
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. You can also talk at the unofficial ACX community [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), or [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/inde... | Scott Alexander | 52793154 | Open Thread 221 | acx |
# Initial Conditions
Consider people who go by their first and middle initials, eg John Q Smith introduces himself as “Hi, I’m J.Q.” Authors who use their initials on their books (eg J.K. Rowling) don’t count, unless they also go by their initials in everyday life.
Is there any pattern to who does this - ie which ini... | Scott Alexander | 52660073 | Initial Conditions | acx |
# Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing
*[epistemic status: pretty uncertain about each individual fact, moderate confidence in general overview]*
**I. Hoffman Contra Me**
I’ve said many times that (to a first approximation) Vitamin D is a boring bone-related chemical. Most claims that it does exciting things outside o... | Scott Alexander | 51821259 | Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
### I. The Duality Of Man
[Kalimac](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn/comment/5107245):
> If you write more stuff like this, I think I will just gradually stop reading this blog.
[Logan Strohl](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-revi... | Scott Alexander | 50269257 | Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn" | acx |
# Mantic Monday 4/18/22
### Warcasting
Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since [my last post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-32122?s=w) March 21:
1. [Will at least three of six big cities fall by June 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9941/russia-takeover-of-ukrainian-cities-by-june/):... | Scott Alexander | 52429737 | Mantic Monday 4/18/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 220
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. You can also talk at the unofficial ACX community [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), or [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/inde... | Scott Alexander | 51981930 | Open Thread 220 | acx |
# Irvine Meetup This Monday
I’ll be in Irvine this week visiting family. I know the local meetup group already came up with a different Schelling meetup time, but I hope they don’t mind me imposing on them and trying to meet people this Monday too.
**When:** Monday, April 18, 7:15 PM.
**Where:** Underneath [this mys... | Scott Alexander | 52303947 | Irvine Meetup This Monday | acx |
# Links For April
**1:** [History of the belief that garlic and magnets are natural enemies.](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17496977.2019.1648924)
**2:** Jacob Wood’s [Graph Of The Blogosphere](https://jacobwood27.github.io/035_blog_graph/). ACX’s neighborhood:
You can also see Jacob’s description of ... | Scott Alexander | 51761264 | Links For April | acx |
# Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President
**I.**
President Jason Shea, 2012
Jason Shea was born in Washington, DC in 1946. His father, Jackson Shea, was a former war hero turned politician; a few years after Shea's birth, he would become Vice President of the US under Eisenhower. His mother, Shawna Shea, was the ... | Scott Alexander | 51754880 | Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President | acx |
# Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
This is intended as a sequel to my old Biodeterminist’s Guide To Parenting. It’s less ambitious, in that it focuses only on pregnancy; but also more ambitious, in that it tries to be right. I wrote Biodeterminist’s Guide in 2012, before the replicati... | Scott Alexander | 52041324 | Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
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