| --- |
| license: cc-by-sa-4.0 |
| language: |
| - en |
| pretty_name: SkyBlock Patch → Price Events |
| size_categories: |
| - 1K<n<10K |
| tags: |
| - event-study |
| - game-economy |
| - hypixel-skyblock |
| - llm-extraction |
| task_categories: |
| - tabular-regression |
| - tabular-classification |
| configs: |
| - config_name: default |
| data_files: |
| - split: train |
| path: patchoracle_events.parquet |
| --- |
| |
| # Dataset card — SkyBlock Patch → Price Events |
|
|
| **What:** one row per (patch, bazaar item) event: LLM-extracted change facts |
| from Hypixel SkyBlock patch notes (2019–2026) joined to market outcomes |
| (raw and market-adjusted % price moves at D+1/D+3/D+7). |
|
|
| **Why it exists:** no labeled dataset connects game patch text to in-game |
| market reactions. Prior public work predicts next-tick prices from price |
| history alone (autocorrelation-trivial). This dataset supports event-driven |
| prediction: *given what a patch says, what happens to the affected items?* |
|
|
| --- |
|
|
| ## ⚠️ v3 correction notice (2026-08-03) — read before using v2 numbers |
|
|
| **v3 replaces v2. If you pulled v2, re-pull.** v2's row counts were wrong and its |
| central caveat was unquantified. Both are fixed here, and several claims the |
| project made *about* this data have since been retracted by the project itself. |
|
|
| | | v2 (published 2026-08-01) | **v3 (this release)** | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | events | 2,599 | **2,078** | |
| | usable labels (`excluded = false`) | 1,403 | **1,087** | |
| | `name-match-seed` rows | 1,090 | **569** (405 usable) | |
| | rows with a NULL `excerpt` | 1,094 | **0** | |
| | seed false-positive risk | prose warning only | **measured, per-row column** | |
|
|
| The v2 counts predate the G12 matcher fix. v2's `name-match-seed` rows contained |
| fabricated attributions the card only warned about in the abstract — most |
| notoriously a `Y` event mined from the phrase **"Howdy y'all!"**. Those are gone |
| (see *`name_match_risk`* below), every row now carries the `excerpt` it came from, |
| and the residual risk is a column you can filter on rather than a paragraph you |
| have to trust. |
|
|
| **Retractions affecting claims made *about* this dataset.** The data is sound; the |
| trading claims built on it were not. Stated plainly because earlier releases of |
| this project asserted otherwise: |
|
|
| - **The trading-cost assumption was ~20× too optimistic.** Published net figures |
| assumed a 1.0% bid-ask spread proxy. The measured median bazaar spread is |
| **19.5%** row-level / **23.4%** per item. Treat any net-return figure from |
| earlier releases as gross. |
| - **No execution regime yields a profitable strategy.** Priced on real bid/ask: |
| crossing the book nets **−52.9%**; resting both legs earns the *spread* rather |
| than the signal (return correlates r=0.57 with spread width); resting one leg |
| same-side nets **−32.8%** on the fills you actually get, with **−41.3pp** of |
| adverse selection. **Do not cite this dataset as supporting a profitable |
| strategy.** |
| - **Direction is a well-powered null.** Directional accuracy is ≈0.52–0.54 against |
| a 0.524 always-predict-down constant; a 96-cell, 48-hour event-time scan found |
| no cell above baseline. **Magnitude reacts; direction does not.** The defensible |
| predictive result is that post-patch price *range* is forecastable from an item's |
| own 30-day trailing volatility at ρ ≈ 0.45–0.52 out-of-sample — and adding |
| patch-note features does **not** measurably improve it. |
| - **A published fill-rate statistic was a tautology.** A "100% fill rate, 0.00pp |
| adverse selection" figure was an algebraic identity — its threshold was a member |
| of the set being minimised over — not a measurement. Retracted; the real entry |
| fill rate is 52.4% with −2.77pp adverse selection. |
|
|
| ## Size (v3) |
|
|
| **2,078 events** across **232 patches** and **596 bazaar items**; **1,087 rows** |
| carry usable outcome labels (`excluded = false`). The source corpus is **396 |
| patches** (2019-06-11 → 2026-07-15); patches touching no bazaar-resolvable item |
| contribute no rows. |
|
|
| ## Fields |
|
|
| | Column | Meaning | |
| |---|---| |
| | `patch`, `patch_date`, `source`, `forum_url` | which patch (wiki changelog title or RSS), when, provenance | |
| | `anchor_ts`, `anchor_precision` | resolved publish timestamp. `hour` = real forum post time (152 patches); `day` = **placeholder `00:00 UTC`, not a measured time** (244 patches) | |
| | `event_id` | stable row id (matches `event_id` in the project's public API) | |
| | `item_tag` | CoflNet/Hypixel bazaar tag (e.g. `ENCHANTED_DIAMOND`) | |
| | `change_type` | buff / nerf / new / removed / fix / mention (from text only) | |
| | `mechanism` | drop_rate / recipe / shop_price / stats / availability / other | |
| | `magnitude_text`, `magnitude_pct` | magnitude **as written in the patch**; parsed % when stated | |
| | `affects_supply`, `affects_demand` | which side of the market the text says is touched | |
| | `is_new_content` | item introduced by this patch (no pre-history ⇒ excluded from labels) | |
| | **`is_new_content_contradicted`** | **NEW in v3.** `true` when `is_new_content` is set but the item has price rows *before* its own patch date — i.e. the flag is wrong. **True for 77 of 339 (23%).** | |
| | `extraction_model` | which extractor produced the row — see provenance | |
| | `excerpt` | the sentence(s) the extraction came from. **Non-null for all 2,078 rows in v3** | |
| | **`name_match_risk`** | **NEW in v3.** Per-row attribution audit — see below | |
| | `pre_price`, `pre_vol_pct`, `pre_drift_pct`, `pre_volume` | pre-anchor market state (strictly before the patch) | |
| | `ret_d{1,3,7}_pct` | raw % move vs D-1 close, winsorized ±50 | |
| | `abn_d{1,3,7}_pct` | market-adjusted (abnormal) % move vs a volume-weighted bazaar index | |
| | `d7_censored` | another patch touched the item inside the D+7 window | |
| | `excluded`, `exclude_reason` | rows without valid labels (new items, thin history, volume floor) | |
|
|
| ### `name_match_risk` — v2's caveat, now measured |
|
|
| v2 warned that seed rows "include false-positive mentions" without saying how |
| many. With excerpts stored, that is checkable. Two distinct classes, and **only |
| the second still exists**: |
|
|
| | value | rows (all / usable) | meaning | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `not_applicable` | 1,509 / 682 | LLM-typed row — a model read the passage and asserted a change, so the name-matching bug never applied | |
| | `wholeword_ok` | 499 / 338 | seed row; item name appears as a whole word in the excerpt | |
| | `homonym_sense_ambiguous` | 70 / **67** | seed row whose name is a common English word, so the match may be the wrong sense | |
| | `substring_no_wholeword_match` | **0 / 0** | **class eliminated.** This is the G12 bug ("Howdy y'all!" → `Y`); no row exhibits it | |
|
|
| **The `homonym_sense_ambiguous` class is mixed, not uniformly wrong.** Verified by |
| hand: |
|
|
| - *wrong sense:* `DIAMOND` from "Wooden, Gold, and Diamond **chests**"; `ICE` from |
| "**Ice Essence** Shop"; `LOG` from "You will need to be MVP+ … **Log in**" |
| - *correct:* `FLINT` from "Cobblestone / Stone … Gravel / **Flint**"; `WHEAT` from |
| "Fixed [[**Wheat**]] growing on…" |
|
|
| They are **flagged, not dropped** — dropping them would discard real rows and |
| diverge from the project's own labels. For a conservative subset use |
| `name_match_risk != 'homonym_sense_ambiguous'` (**1,020** usable rows); otherwise |
| treat them as weak labels. |
|
|
| *Method note, so you can reproduce or distrust it:* the check is a whole-word |
| regex on the item's display name, tolerating a plural/possessive on the final |
| word. That tolerance is load-bearing — a first version without it flagged 63 rows |
| as fabricated that were merely plurals ("Iron Ingot**s**", "Bejeweled |
| Handle**s**", "red gift**s**"), i.e. it reported a ~6% fabrication rate that was |
| entirely its own bug. Code: `data_release/export.py::classify_name_match`. |
|
|
| ## Construction & caveats |
|
|
| - **Patch text:** Hypixel SkyBlock Wiki `Changelog/*` pages (CC-BY-SA) via the |
| MediaWiki API; live patches from the official forum RSS. |
| - **Prices:** CoflNet SkyApi historical bazaar series (2h/daily buckets). This |
| release contains only **per-event derived aggregates**, not CoflNet's raw series |
| — pull those from their API directly. |
| - **Extraction:** **Claude Sonnet 5** (`claude:claude-sonnet-5`), JSON-schema |
| constrained facts-only prompt (no outcome-flavored fields, to avoid |
| pretraining-knowledge leakage), patch text chunked at 15k chars; item names |
| resolved against the 1,609-tag bazaar vocabulary. |
| - **Row provenance** (`extraction_model`): `claude:claude-sonnet-5` **1,350** — |
| typed events; `name-match-seed` **569** — item name matched in patch text but no |
| extractor typed a change for it; `ollama:qwen3` **159** — v1 events the v2 pass |
| did not re-find, retained rather than deleted. |
| - **Timestamps are a known weak point.** 244 of 396 patches sit at |
| `anchor_precision = 'day'`, anchored at `00:00 UTC` — a fiction; real patches |
| publish at a median ~15:00 UTC. **Always split intraday results by |
| `anchor_precision`**: pooling the two hid a genuine effect in this project's own |
| analysis. ~86.7% of the missing timestamps are recoverable (the wiki stores the |
| forum thread as an `{{Update Link|post=}}` template, which the scraper's |
| literal-URL regex could not see) but that is **not applied in v3**. |
| - **Exclusions are selective, not random.** 991 of 2,078 events are excluded: 485 |
| thin pre-history, 339 new content, 167 below volume floor. The excluded |
| new-content slice is **1.5–2.9× more dispersed** in outcome magnitude than a |
| comparable non-event window, and that survives matching on liquidity. So the |
| usable subset is systematically **tamer** than the full event population — |
| material if you model magnitude, immaterial for direction (null anyway). |
| - **The market index is not a tradeable benchmark.** `abn_*` columns are adjusted |
| against a volume-weighted bazaar index that compounds at ~+19,658%/yr with a |
| median breadth of 21 items/day. Use `abn_*` for event-study framing and `ret_*` |
| for anything resembling P&L. |
| - **Other noise sources** (quantified in the repo's `research/02`): market-wide |
| moves (mitigated by abnormal returns), Alpha-server anticipation (patches are |
| partially priced in before release), thin-book manipulation (volume floor + |
| winsorization), overlapping patches (`d7_censored`). |
| |
| ## Extraction-quality findings (v2 re-extraction, retained) |
| |
| Two pre-committed evaluations; they point in different directions and both are |
| disclosed. |
| |
| - **Extraction quality: improved.** A blinded LLM-judge pass over a 44-patch |
| stratified sample scored Sonnet 5 well above qwen3 on both axes — correctness |
| 4.30 vs 2.73, completeness 2.61 vs 1.36 (0–5 scale). Pairwise `change_type` |
| agreement is 0.75–0.85 between independent Claude tiers vs 0.45–0.51 between |
| qwen3 and any Claude tier. |
| - **Downstream model gate: marginal FAIL.** Retraining on v2 data moved test |
| directional accuracy 0.596 → 0.573 (−2.3pt, past a pre-committed −2pt gate) |
| while three other tracked metrics held or improved. **Don't cite this dataset as |
| having improved downstream accuracy** — the measured claim is better |
| *extraction*, not better *predictions*. |
| - **Class-distribution shift.** Claude labels 45% of typed events `buff` (qwen3: |
| 23%) and produces almost no `removed` events (1 vs 83). v1 → v2 is a real |
| distribution break if you use `change_type` frequencies as features or priors. |
|
|
| ## Companion datasets |
|
|
| - **`patchoracle-skyblock-mayor-cells`** — the 42 pre-registered |
| (basket × horizon) cells from the mayor-election event study, with verdicts and |
| permutation p-values, failures included. |
| - **`patchoracle-skyblock-patches`** — the 396-patch corpus metadata with resolved |
| anchors, useful independently of the event labels. |
|
|
| ## License & attribution |
|
|
| Labels/extractions: **CC-BY-SA 4.0** (inherits the wiki's license). |
| Please credit: Hypixel SkyBlock Wiki (Fandom), CoflNet SkyApi, Hypixel API. |
| Not affiliated with Hypixel. Built by the PatchOracle project. |
|
|
| ## Transparency notes |
|
|
| - **Anchor correction:** an early pipeline version could anchor at patch-day close |
| when D-1 was missing (a post-patch leak); fixed and fully relabeled. This |
| release is post-fix. |
| - **Mega-patch gap (v1): CLOSED.** The one patch that resisted local-LLM |
| extraction in v1 (`Changelog/2024/April 19`, 46k chars) extracts cleanly under |
| Claude. All corpus patches processed with zero failures. |
| - Every negative result above is published because it was measured, not because it |
| was convenient. If a claim in this card is not supported by the data, that is a |
| bug — please open a discussion. |
|
|
