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f04493caf7795237cf1f9c9fe5d8cf83
So, I mean the numbers, marketing spend in the US was may be down in 2019 versus 2018, but it will be up in 2020 versus 2019, is that fair?
Yeah, that's exactly the case.
direct
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A
e9852e7de7dbff9f70a87f2d879db126
Okay. And maybe I know you've never broken out Ikea US, but it's been declining for quite some time. And I guess the simple question is, is it sufficiently small that even if it declines a lot, we can stop talking about it going forward? Or just give me sort of update on the relative size or importance of that account,...
So, it's less than 10%, obviously because we are not reporting it in our financial filing by name. I can say that it's been declining. And we think now that by entering to Home Depot, this channel of big box is going to be balanced. I think that this year, the expectation is that we won't see -- we will balance Ikea an...
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A
a55365716c70b55f61b2739509678f66
Okay. And then, on the US, you mentioned core being slightly different from the total US. And maybe you could define what you're calling core? And then any feel for what pricing versus volume did in the US for the year, 2019 versus 2018?
First, John, we -- the core in the US is all our sales -- the part of the sales to Ikea in 2019. So when we are saying that -- when we are differentiating between the two, it's just to give the market some perspective on our growth in the core business. I think we mentioned in the past that we look more on us internal...
intermediate
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B
7e2be507cb6a102f9a8c5e2efe0b07f5
I don't want to put words in your mouth, but when we talk about one of the gross margin pressures, we talk about pricing. So obviously that the challenge in Australia and Canada, and other parts where I guess the Chinese are aggressively competing. But even in the US, your pricing is relatively aggressive, down?
No, I think that in the US, you see a healthy pricing environment. We expect to see increase in prices in 2020. We see less pressure than we see in other markets.
direct
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A
4b598628d42dedf5a369f48622fe76b8
Okay. My last question is just around legal. Could you give us an update there in terms of numbers as well as what generally is happening?
Yeah. So in this quarter, particularly we had a provision -- higher expense due to a legal claim that we had not related to silly causes, it was close to $5 million that we've recorded coming. It's an issue going back to 2007 and it's been ongoing and there was some development in the claim that the legal proceedings t...
direct
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A
851912c5fb6d53bea43fa0a3a065ea17
Hey guys. So, thanks for taking my question. Sorry, if I missed this earlier, just to what extent is the Home Depot kind of opportunity baked into 2020?
Hi Asaf, thanks for the question. Home Depot is a very good development that we are starting the year with. It's been three years and more that we're trying to penetrate this big box channel. And I think, to start 2020 with this change on this development is very encouraging. It's already baked into our guidance to the...
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A
aef7cc2da4ed7599e6e1d1e41b6fe0ad
Okay. And maybe just I guess a follow up on the China virus. I know maybe it's more headline than kind of financial reality at this point for you guys, but are you feeling anything on the ground in some of the non-US markets? I assume the production was not mainly in the Wuhan region, but are you feeling anything, any ...
I think in the market, it's a bit too early to feel any different momentum in the market themselves. As for the supply chain, we are seeing some delays in shipment of our OEM volume from China, which we are fully covered from our own facilities in Israel.
direct
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A
77daf274af73ada2ff46c55aa9cc3ca1
Hey, maybe we could just start off with the marketing and storage business. What is your -- what are your target contribution in business mix for this segment going forward and how much of the benefits that you're seeing this year from the expansion are -- do you think are sustainable? I mean, we had a really good year...
Hey Michael, this is Ann, I'll start and then, see if Steve Rasche would like to add anything. So the question about percentage mix, we look at our business profile from a regulated and non-regulated aspect. Marketing is non-regulated. Clearly, our pipeline is regulated, our utilities are regulated and to a great degre...
intermediate
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B
b91aa29e9ed94868ed7cb19f2c88b247
Got you. And also on the CapEx plan, which increased about $200 million, I don't think there was any change there in the financing plans, especially on the equity side, and there's still the ATM that's open. Is there any additional need for financing as a result of higher CapEx or is it somehow internally funded?
Yes Michael, this is Steve, I think I can take this one. Yes, we as you know, we factor in the financing requirements for all of our businesses in our long term growth target range. And I think it adequately covers the expectations of what our financing needs will be. And you're right, it includes both debt and equity ...
intermediate
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B
7c4907ba810e73e8b2749295a36993d9
Just a couple of follow ups on kind of equity plan, just to get a little more specificity on that if possible. Just to be clear, so first of all, you haven't issued any equity yet through the first quarter or the last quarter rather. And with regard to the second half, issuance is under the ATM. Is it the right way to ...
I mean, Phil, this is Steve. I'll take a shot at it. The ATM which we announced in February is not yet active, so no, we had no issuances during the period up through the end of the quarter and up through the call today. And as I mentioned, we do expect to start issuing through that. It's a three-year, $150 million pro...
intermediate
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B
77575b2c8c5e81024e7001bbd6e6e69e
Okay, so it might not necessarily be $50 million ratable over three years or --
Yes, again -- we -- it's a three-year program and we view that it's going to meet our needs for at least the next two years.
intermediate
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B
80e3ad0490735e08e204b0908e7271d1
Okay. And also, can you just provide any more specificity on the second half, whether like what might factor into when you would consider issuing that equity?
No, not at this point, I think that -- that'd be leaning a bit too far forward.
fully_evasive
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C
45df4e37b0e16e2adada397399c31f8f
Okay. And just looking at the stock process, general thoughts here like, do you have an inclination to maybe front load that this year, like looking at the overall $150 million budget, so to speak that you have or --
Yes, Phil, there's a number of factors that we look at when we decide what type of capital we need to raise, where we need to raise it in our in our capital structure and what flavor of capital that's going to be and clearly, the share price at the Spire Inc. level is one of the many considerations. I tend to think abo...
intermediate
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B
f438ae84522e9d5b57c7903f522949e8
Do you mind walking through the storage accretion and what's changed around the message there?
I'm not sure that anything has changed in the message from the last quarter. Last quarter, we were consistent about it -- like it's contributing to earnings as we go into 2020. If there's been any clarification, it's the back half and the way I tend to think about it and Rich, I know you have other businesses which are...
intermediate
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B
d3dd6bb1a5fdae84739478944e952922
Yes certainly, so with the back half of 2020, that's more just clarity on your end with the path forward that you have now versus kind of saying 2020 before, does that make sense?
Yes, that's fair. Yes.
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A
265f30413f3c9168faff23485cdc4ca4
Okay, great. And then just one final one here, the -- I think it was $6 million of expenses on the quarter for Storage. Does that include financing costs?
That would include an allocation of financing costs for the capital invested, yes.
direct
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A
fbc6e7041450cd072e3bdb066b7c9fef
Good evening, management. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two small questions. The first is about the advertising market update. So will management provide some color about the category performance of the advertising market in the second quarter and the first quarter? And my second question is about the U.S.-Chi...
OK. So I will answer your two questions. So first one is about the industry with good performance for our advertising business. So I think our situation is similar with other players in the advertisement industry. As most of our advertising revenue is coming from major domestic platforms, we can see greater contributio...
intermediate
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B
ed26fe6345c2c009ca42a827317dbfd7
Can you break out how big the direct module sales channel was in the quarter and what the growth rate is on that during the year and year-over-year?
So, the split of channels has actually been evolving but rather stable. It's not a dramatic change except that we continue to adjust our allocation to different markets according to the price movements. So, we -- in general, first of all, in mature markets like US, Europe, Japan and Brazil, and Australia, we continue t...
intermediate
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B
3952bdb7e2d26414fe8d0763f1c6b03d
I know you want to be a little bit cautious about sharing too much about the cadence of cost reductions. But what can you tell us in terms of how we should think about how that moves forward. It seems to me that you've got some pretty fertile soil in front of you in terms of migrating costs down and being able to maxim...
So we believe into next year that we will cut down our cost and together, of course, the module price will also go down and we actually observing the cost reduction mainly coming from the mono lines, mono supply chain and in particular wafer. And, however, we believe that the price, the module price going down together...
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A
e6ccc0613f265c02e4694e2c2dbdf8de
Is it just Japanese projects that are falling out from Q4 into Q1 of 2020?
Yes, this is one of the Japanese projects. We originally thought we can close everything in Q3 and somehow because of a lot of paperwork, legal work and then flip it to a later part. No, actually I talk to the Japanese team last night and then they told me that they are moving forward, everything is smooth. There is no...
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A
f4147c00ae7399180134e79394169240
On gross margin, I had a question there. Just can you give us a sense of -- in the 19% to 21% range, what's being reflected for the two different segments?
Well, I think it's mainly primarily driven by slippery of the project sale closing. And a smaller part is on the module side because of the price dropping. So that's the situation. There is also a project that's low margin that's going close in next quarter. It's called Max Bright [Phonetic] project. So that's a $130 m...
intermediate
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B
2c4a970e4e09b1a16ce9a4fc64e51d56
And then for the AD CVD reversal, I know you don't typically put that into guidance. Just want to confirm, that's not embedded in the guidance for Q4 as well.
No, it's not.
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A
00ee78adaf3d4d9dcd58f94ff7e23cc9
I think there has been some scuttled but for potentially a near-term policy update on the China solar market for 2020 or maybe even by year-end. Just wondering, I know this year the late policy development kind of stunted the market out there in China, maybe they're trying to get around that this year, but maybe give u...
Okay. So first of all, to say that our exposure in China is lower. So the short-term fluctuation in China market, it has minimum impact on our business. Secondly, regarding China demand, I think we all heard the needs about total [Indecipherable] in the first three quarter of 16 gigawatts. So we also see that we do not...
intermediate
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B
92df531a04754d61ae0a30529a9e0ae2
Huifeng, I just wanted to go back to the guidance if I can. I apologize if I missed this, I just want to be clear. So for the year, you've left your shipment guidance the same but you took down revenue. Are you reducing your internal assumptions for ASPs in the MSS business or is it completely a function of the project...
Typically, a function of the closing time of the projects in Japan.
intermediate
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B
1ac79dd5c1f71d64a285c71b998439f8
And then on the power plants in operation, in fact the megawatts were stable quarter-over-quarter, you took down the estimated resale value a tad. Just curious what's driving that, is that just a rounding error or is there anything that you call out in any of these regions where you have operating assets?
Well, it's mainly because of China. So as you -- as we all know that things end of June last year, China market -- project market actually was crashed in a way and so there is a lot of project inventory that's on sale in the market in China and because of the declaration of selling those projects for cash flow purpose,...
direct
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A
5997521471f46cbf0f424a69148024bf
Can you give us a sense of where the module ASP was in 3Q and where do you see it in 4Q. And then secondly, it looks like you've increased your module capacity for 2020 but left to cell capacity pretty much unchanged. Can you give us a sense maybe preliminarily what you think you'd be able to grow shipments in 2020 giv...
Yes, I would say, from Q3 to Q4, it's a downturn, but for us, it's also downturn, but more mild, it's rather stable down. So, this is a Q4 situation and because we secured our high price orders much earlier for most of the Q4 pipeline and it's only a portion of the Q4 fills that come late with the impact of pricing dow...
intermediate
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B
43c7269be4ab485ceeb4dc62b4f1de5d
I was curious Tom, if you could break out for us the PPP fees and the purchase accounting adjustments that flowed through the margin this quarter and help us think about what the core NIM might look like in coming quarters.
Yeah, I think on a core basis, Mark, it's somewhere in the $301 t0 $305 range. PPP was about 8 basis points of benefit this quarter, and the purchase accounting adjustments are about 5 basis points. The purchase accounting adjustments, so I don't really see the benefit of that disappearing because we're pricing [Phonet...
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A
4e97cedf6ae894f288a2ba0976e609e3
Okay. And then secondly, your expenses were a little bit high in 1Q. Sounds like you had some non-recurring items in there. Can you tighten your belt and get expenses back sub $60 million per quarter going forward, do you think Tom?
$60 million is probably a reasonable number. I would expect to see stock based compensation elevate a little bit on the ESOP plant just because we've seen some improvement in the market price. That said, Mark, there were a couple of items as you noted that that won't recur. The payroll tax reset trickles down over the ...
direct
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A
6442025c121f1ec7b0738112993aca9c
Okay. And then the insurance agency income was obviously strong, which I assume is because you get a lot of the renewals in the first quarter. This -- does that taper down a little bit in the second quarter and then more in the third quarter, or do you see it sort of fall off in 2Q typically, maybe it's a question for ...
Sure. Hey, Mark. The insurance income this quarter was really good from one source. Right? The commission-based income was high. Contingency-based income was not as high as it historically has been for the quarter, which is a good band thing because we're doing it on the normal business, because of obviously the last y...
direct
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A
88ca715e1af15150c5a2b7307c91eef0
Okay. And then the last question I had for you is obviously we've seen a lot of consolidation in the Northeast, maybe a little less so in New Jersey. It feels like New Jersey might be ripe for consolidation, given that you've got a lot of sort of mid-sized banks that are looking to grow and scale seems to be more and m...
Well, this is Chris. I think that we're always involved when invited. We certainly between Tony and myself know most everybody in the market have relationships, it all goes back to their boards, what they're thinking, how they look at in the market. And so we always like to be part of the conversation for those that ma...
intermediate
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B
0a7467dd98b42ef4500b8733f3e4d683
Just back on the insurance revenue, do you by chance have what the full-year revenue was last year and just so we can gauge what the expectation for our full year this year would be?
I don't have the exact number in front of me, Steve, but I think it was $8 million to $8.5 million. And our expectation for next year is roughly 18% to 20% increase on that.
direct
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A
9455d5e08d36cc36f01421ce9f6604e9
Okay, great. And then just back on the PPP, do you have the average balance of the -- for the PPP loans this quarter?
Let's see, the total at the end of period is $486, we were $473 at the end of the year. I don't have an average in front of me, but you can do a straight line there. The second -- Steve, the second batch is definitely of a smaller nature than the first batch of PPP. So it's definitely not the average size, it's definit...
intermediate
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B
6bc2a00849af24fd31ee27d9da71ff8b
Okay. And do you have the dollar amount that was accreted in the quarter and how much in fees you have remaining?
Our remaining fees are $7.2 million. Again, they were refueled I guess with PPP2. Fees recognized during the quarter were $4 million.
intermediate
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B
47a2b444b543bf664fa5a2f0af7d0c98
Okay. Great. And then the liquidity, you guys talked about that. I guess your borrowings and CDs, I guess as the year progresses, and let's just assume that you have another quarter or two of deposits coming in. Are there opportunities to kind of let borrowings and CDs roll off and do you have just the [Phonetic] matur...
Yeah, this is about -- over the next 12 months, it's about $1.4 billion, and there's probably about a 50 basis point pick up to the current low rates.
fully_evasive
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C
3aa26b705b2ae928c995baeb21c3b86c
Is that the CDs or is that...
That's a combination of both, Steve. I can give you pieces if you want. I can find... Time deposits decreased 131. Here we go. Yes. CDs by quarter Steve are -- or I give you the total for the next 12 months. CDs are $790 million, borrowings are $622 million for a total of $1.411. And as I said, it's about a 50 basis po...
direct
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A
adc92a9bb3eea53718cce89b24521f82
50 basis points, OK, that's great. And then just last one from me, the swap income, do you expect a rebound in the income or should we expect this as the going-run rate?
I think it's the going-run rate at least for the near term. Steve. We've kind of moved away from swaps because of our interest rate risk position. We are asset sensitive. The steepness of the curve has made the swapping to the variable rate products less attractive for us. So we're taking the current -- the spread inco...
direct
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A
35bf48995d7306ab7b79ed041a5fd1c1
Right. And did you say that that $301 to $305 includes purchase accounting or does not include purchase accounting?
It does. Again, the position I'm taking is that the purchase accounting isn't going to roll off once it's gone because the liabilities are repricing downward to those levels.
direct
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A
26073e42af21cddbfa8390c399666d40
Good morning, appreciate the comments on the strategic plan you are ongoing at the moment. So, I was curious on the commercial banking tenet That you outlined talking about looking at entering different segments and potentially expanding into new markets. Is there any additional color you could provide at this time in ...
Sure, I'll give you some color around that. One of the things we're looking at is our C&I business. How do we expand -- how we deepen that, and as a percentage of our total book. Looking at our SBA lending increasing our capacity around that. We reorganized our authority levels. The way we structured ourselves makes us...
direct
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A
fbecbfe7e44586ed9a9fa8f18b94212a
Yeah, no that's great [indecipherable] Thank you, Tony. And then, just another question. So you also mentioned here thinking about potential additional closures, and prepared remarks also talked about exceeding the cost saves from the deal and the potential to extract more. So just curious as [Phonetic] your thoughts a...
I think it's a little bit of both, if I can start. Right. I think the digitalization of our process is certainly going to make us more efficient and get rid of a lot of mundane manual processes that tend to build up over time. In terms of rationalizing our network, that's the consistent work in process and we can extra...
direct
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A
2ec8e12490003d39f47b7517d8a590f1
Just a quick question, maybe on your thoughts for organic loan growth and potential for net growth going forward. Got a healthy unfunded loan commitments around $2 billion and the loan pipeline was up quarter-over-quarter. So just curious how you think that might play out through the year and whether it might be enough...
Yeah, I'll start there and then my colleagues jump in. So based on -- our pipeline is pretty solid at this time, right, as we mentioned. The pull-through rates and getting loans for what we touch today is probably I would say 55%. That means every loan we look at, what we're losing to some of the -- I hate to use this ...
intermediate
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B
8c189928171feba9299d2d9a00cff960
And that 5% to 6%, is that inclusive of the PPP loans running off as well?
I would say we're looking at it net.
intermediate
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B
22c9281f750dc185f83781d486a1e650
Maybe just to sort of jump off from that, I was wondering if you could maybe, Jimmy or Dava, just sort of talk to maybe the -- triangulating between the nonlinear earnings growth statement in the shareholder letter against maybe the removal of expense guidance and then where you might be thinking about investing and ho...
Sure. So I'll take the expense guidance one first, and then we can talk about the nonlinear comments. And we addressed this in some detail in the letter, but our variable revenue and variable expense, as evidenced last year, kind of wildly outweighs the fixed side of things. And there doesn't tend to be, in shorter per...
direct
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A
193ad536eed216452f3cf85a9101f228
As you step back a little bit in sort of your new role, where do you see like the top three areas to sort of grow the business, maybe both over the intermediate term and maybe flesh out some of your comments on sort of this capability in some of these major asset classes you'd look a bit longer term.
So at the risk of sounding bland, the top three areas to grow the business are the three core areas. That's multi-strategy, credit, and real estate. And I'm not sure if that was a question you're asking. So there may be a follow-up to that. But those three areas, as laid out in the letter, all represent not just impor...
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A
13c0af59ac60414f4170a0bfe7e8a4a8
Jimmy, I was hoping you might be able to provide a little bit of color or context around the capacity comments that were in your letter. I think it was more than $8 billion but perhaps less than $34 billion. I was just kind of hoping you might be able to shed a little bit of light on where you think the kind of optimal...
Yeah. So good question. We don't have a specific number in mind. And our capacity generally grows with the market, as everyone else's does, right? Just think of the size of the S&P 500 10 years ago versus the size of the S&P 500 today or the size of the high-yield market or the loan market or the CLO market. All these...
intermediate
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B
c436d7e0014e40c99e1e8daef2c49f22
I was kind of hoping you might be able to flesh out the comments around the longer-dated private credit business. Is this is part of this an extension of something you're already kind of working on in-house? Or is this purely kind of inorganic? And any other kind of comments you might be able to make around just the s...
Sure. Well, longer-dated and permanent capital are too different, but we'll address that. But I want to make sure I'm clear on that because the last bit of your question blended them into one. And there's two pieces of it. There's the organic/existing, and then there's the possible inorganic. On the organic/existing, ...
intermediate
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B
4efd1dc46bed6ea316ca4866cb89fa64
Given that you've deployed most of your first credit real estate fund, when could we see this come back to market? And do you expect it to be meaningfully larger given the strong performance?
Yeah. So we don't give exact details on when we're going to launch new funds, but we are happy with that platform, and we do plan to try and expand it over time.
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C
604e46f58c2c23458d6c5429ac7276c2
Can you talk a little bit about the realization trajectory for the third real estate opportunistic fund?
Yes. And, well, I'll give some more information there as well because it was highlighted in our earnings release that some of the unexpected incentive income in the quarter were from realizations from Fund II. Fund II is getting down to a very small number, so I wouldn't expect anything material out of Fund II going fo...
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A
2b6d38b7763d061bb7b5f3c60b75f127
I was wondering if you could expand a little bit on the hedge fund sales acceleration. So I see year-to-date is now double where you were last year. I was wondering if you could maybe talk about the different distribution channels where you're seeing that uptake. And then my question is out there. Second, I was wonderi...
Yeah. So on the hedge fund gross inflow side, as you mentioned, we provided an amount of detail that we have not done in the past, and we thought it was an important time to do that. So first, we're not changing our overall disclosure plan on the gross flow side, but we did think it was important to highlight what was ...
intermediate
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B
ba2d363b0ca2d49e177693f7c4320f26
First question, just wanted to throw into just understanding the weather and COVID related impacts in the first quarter and just picking that up with maybe how we were modeling it. So Danny mentioned, you already mentioned that sounds like there was a one and a half million dollar adverse impact from the Texas weather ...
Yeah. Good. Thanks for the question, Scott. And it's great to visit with you. First, on the weather, we've devoted time to quantifying things a lot more in detail. On the senior living side, because of some of the claims that we're processing and how disruptive it was to a particularly to a few of the facilities, all o...
intermediate
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B
ec1449d1d7e90480214589ae28b5a245
Then -- so the second question would just be maybe thinking about the trajectory over the rest of the year toward achieving the guidance, which you reaffirmed, it actually looks like the revenue trajectory was right on track in the first quarter, and especially given some of the strength in the home health and hospice ...
Yeah, just high level, and then I think Brent and Jen may have some thoughts specific on the numbers related to margins. But this confluence of events with COVID, COVID had not peeked in, in any of the states we were operating in with the exception of perhaps Washington, where we have only one facility. So COVID peak-i...
intermediate
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B
d79651de38f4d92b201df76ee893956c
I was just going to follow up, just to clarify on that occupancy point. Are you seeing some improvement so far already in the second quarter or do we think about this is something that really starts to sort of reveal itself more and more of a notable ramp in the back half of the year?
Yeah. So generally, we feel like it'll happen more in the back half of the year, but we are seeing really, really hopeful signs there. Derek, I think has some of the numbers here. Hey, Scott. So I'd echo what Danny mentioned, that we do anticipate it to be leaning toward the second half of the year. And as we mentione...
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A
6c612321d0c3ecc94e6f93e60797fd3a
Got it. And then just one last one for me, but I'll get back in queue. Just hoping for some framing on what you were seeing with hospice in terms of length of stay and how that was influenced your thinking on sequential ADC for the industry backdrop more broadly. There was like sustained pressure in hospice, just as re...
Yeah. John, why don't you tackle that? It's a great question, Scott and we appreciate it. Our hospice ADC has actually held up pretty well through the quarter. Our length of stay did decline about 8%. And what we saw is, this is really the result of some of the factors that we've been talking about, about the pandemic...
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A
220e3e18ee4e761ddb8470e14a29c20a
Good morning. I guess, just one quick one here from me, a lot of ground has been covered. When you think about your guidance that you're maintaining here, relative to kind of where you were on the senior housing side. Can you still make your numbers if you don't get improvement from here? Is it is it predicated on some...
Great question, Frank and good to hear from you. We're anticipating some modest improvement in the senior living. We're not -- we're very careful to not over anticipate too much there, we want to make sure that the recovery and the building in the senior living is consistent with our -- what we've stated from for quite...
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A
07e21a051dd606e33a97f64a5bb392fb
Just recognizing the current environment is unique in a variety of ways, but still wanting to use the last recession as a reference point, can you maybe talk through how the business mix today compares to '08, '09 and maybe how you think those differences or the major differences are likely to reflect themselves in you...
So, Andrew, it's Jerry. Good morning, thanks for the question. We've looked a lot at that environment and the positives are that if you look back at our performance during that period of time, we actually performed quite well, certainly relative to many other businesses in the environment and I think it's the key attri...
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B
e7d7eef31b92ca36ce278cbb383c3f0b
Do you expect any competitive dislocation to come out of the current environment, and if so, where would you expect that to be concentrated within your various businesses? And then any color on how you expect CBIZ to capitalize would be helpful.
Yeah, it's interesting. Here is what we're hearing -- and its early. Right? It's early and time will tell. Right? But we're hearing that certainly many of the smaller competitors that we face off against are significantly capital constrained in this environment. They did not have strong balance sheets. They did not hav...
intermediate
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B
5e0fad604f8733ea13c4a5c9ecb67400
Just on the expense base, I think you mentioned 60% of that expense base is in the form of wages. Could you provide a little bit more color on what within that compensation line is variable and the extent to which you expect to be able to flex that up and down depending on kind of the top-line environment?
Yeah, I don't have the exact percentage, Andrew, but let me just tell you a little bit by category, what we're talking about, and I mentioned that a high percentage of the -- of our highest wage earners have a significant variable component. So on the Benefits and Insurance side, many of our high wage earners are commi...
intermediate
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B
ca5399a005b80adef6c06da80bb69592
I wanted to ask what's -- and I know it's going to be tough to answer with any kind of precision. But with what you can see now, what is your view on 2020 revenue? And then and even more importantly, is that a -- when we're thinking about 2021, do you view that 2020 as a new base for looking at growth levels beyond 202...
Yeah, let me just say that we withdrew guidance, we're not yet in a position to be able to give guidance for the remainder of 2020 as a result of all the factors that everybody else is struggling with as well, that being the duration of the existing environment, the impact of the environment on CBIZ and our clients and...
intermediate
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B
a4af0fcd67087017a89e082872e4bd42
Looking at your margins, your target pre-tax margin improvement 20 basis points to 50 basis points a year, obviously FY '20 is going to be tough for that and fall shy -- probably fall shy at that level. But again, is there a reason to think that that's, whatever level you fall to, that's the base and you'll look to imp...
Yeah, Brendan. This is Ware Grove. Yeah, that's another difficult one to answer. Jerry said it well, some of this revenue will get caught up and will be spread later in this year, some of it may get pushed into next year. One thing to keep in mind, as you look at the margin in the first quarter, we commented that we in...
intermediate
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B
3718313390eb7eb3912fb271602eac9f
I wanted to touch a little bit on some of the commentary in the press release. Just wondering if you could spend some time discussing some of the comments around increased demand, particularly around some of the government initiatives, kind of, maybe if you can sort of talk about kind of how that has materialized and i...
Yeah. Thanks, Marc. Again, I think I've said it before, I said it on the script here, in a situation environment where there is complexity and challenges in the environment, our clients turn to us for help and helping them to navigate through this, we've seen that in this situation. Someone referenced 2008, and 2009, y...
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A
05bcd4c58508da09c4b8dc5c131cc79c
I did want to touch also on just sort of the tax filing cadence because since the last year in itself was not a normal year due to the delayed IRS guidelines. And I think at some point during the year, you had mentioned if I -- tell me if I'm misremembering this but I guess the filing extensions were up 10% year-over-y...
Yeah, Marc. That's a great question. So let me give you a little bit of color around that. In the busy season, the typical January 1 through April 15, we typically file X number of tax returns, about one-third of those get filed -- their pass-through-type entities get filed by March 15, we -- obviously, this had not re...
intermediate
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B
6cab5932022eb13b864f94807fa2f822
Hey, guys. This is James [Phonetic] on for Jeremy. I just wanted to start kind of a high-level question, just looking at the JV portfolio. How are you -- maybe if you can go just one by one, in terms of the capital spend you expect this year. And then also just focusing more on exiting Gray Oak. How you see those pipes...
Yes. So in this case, I'll go through them one by one. The EPIC and the Gray Oak pipeline started up in April in full service. We have some small payments left to make on both of those, but not a meaningful number. So we should start seeing some EBITDA contribution and most likely some distributions from one or both of...
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A
ffee370fa5a64da8dc38a400d31e665a
Got it, thanks, And then just one more for me. I'm looking at the slides. On Slide 11, you guys talk about the kind of the savings initiatives with opex. Maybe if you could just provide any incremental color on, I guess the surface royalties there. Maybe I'm just trying to better understand kind of what the savings are...
Yes. It's going to be tough to get major savings on surface royalties. It just depends on that particular area and the lease and what the lease says. In some cases, you are required to buy on lease water and in some cases, the opposite is true. So there's certainly going to be some optimization that we can do. You coul...
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B
8ea85519ff242110377b8e13e725cce3
Just sticking on Slide 11 here. Kaes, I think you mentioned -- I guess, first I wanted to clarify our last comment, did you say kind of a 15% to 20% type of reduction is what you guys were targeting? And then could you clarify if any of that's kind of baked into the existing guidance you guys have put out?
Yes, Jeff, and it's hard for us to bake in forward-looking costs reductions, similar to the Diamondback side, we just like to give you what we're seeing. I think we need to see this prove out in the numbers in Q2 and Q3. But certainly, across the Board, all costs are on the table. So you have seen some reductions to da...
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B
cdd47234a04003b6d6276cf9e09e066e
Got it. Understood. And then for my follow-up, on the distribution, you guys kind of reiterated expectations to maintain that through the rest of the year. Just kind of curious, I guess, the sensitivity of that. And maybe if you look at the downside, to the extent, prices don't firm up or maybe they get weaker through ...
Yes. Jeff, I tried to outline in my prepared remarks that the Board intends to review that distribution policy every quarter. And if you look at just the macro view of it, Rattler has peer-leading leverage and a core business that's turned into free cash flow positive. So the future is hard to predict, but I can tell y...
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B
49f2e33daccd64549c7297616645172a
Hey, guys, can you hear me? Good morning. First question just on the volume guidance and focusing on salt water specifically here. It looks like guidance implies about a 13% volume step down for the rest of the year. Imagine that's heavily weighted to 2Q and 3Q. But I guess, anecdotally, we're hearing about 15% to 20% ...
Yes, Spiro. I really can only talk to Diamondback aginst Rattler [Phonetic], it has one main customer. And Diamondback's released an exit rate oil guidance of 170,000 to 180,000 barrels of oil per day versus Q1 at a little over $2.01. So that's at the midpoint, a little less than 15% reduction. So that kind of ties to ...
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B
3d560c27a20b3ce5b49583f7bbb1b7d7
Perfect. That's helpful. And then just thinking about capex here, you could say you all staying lean. But to the extent -- commences activity again late in 2020, I guess, is that already predicated in the guidance? Or could we see it adjusted higher? And then as we think about next year, what's a good base level of cap...
Yes. I think like we said in the prepared remarks, all costs are on the table. The midpoint of guidance implies $75 million of operating capital spend for the rest of the year. It's probably a little heavier weighted toward Q2 then Q3 and Q4. And I think -- and certainly, the base case Diamondback plan of going back to...
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A
aef45599b2f76abfd9165f855db4cb4f
Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Kaes, given the attractive and robust debt market right now, would you consider doing an offering to pay down the revolver? And then what is the max drawn you'd want to be on your revolver?
Yes, Pearce, it's a really good question you asked. While the debt market probably looks good for larger cap companies, I'm not very confident in that interest rate we would get at the Rattler level. So I think overall, our strategy has been to be patient, and we're working with our banks and making sure they're happy ...
intermediate
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B
0ea6477aeb93f30f3e51c82177eceb64
Hey, good morning. Just a quick question. I appreciate the commentary on the cadence of the year at Rattler. With regard to the sponsor call, you guys talked about your rig schedule for the rest of the year as well as the 150 DUCs exiting '20. Can you talk about either the rig schedule or the DUC inventory and break ou...
Yes. Good question, Tristan. I think the majority of them have to have -- certainly, have Rattler water exposure, whether it's water, freshwater or disposal. So you'll see 100% of those debts go to those -- go to Rattler there. Most of our DUCs are going to be in the Midland Basin, probably two-thirds to three-fourth o...
intermediate
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B
dc4f1d92f431516f94536467562b4989
Good morning, guys. This is Ujjwal. Thanks for taking my question. First one, on your expectation for remaining free cash flow positive from here. That's great. I really wanted to get at what sort of commodity price assumptions and maybe banks baseline drilling and completion plans is baked in there?
Yes. I think the base case is some sort of return to activity in the third or the fourth quarter. It's certainly not going to be a major return to activity. I think we're running scenarios from three [Phonetic] to four frac crews at the Diamondback level today. And that's baked into the Rattler guidance going forward. ...
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B
191a5a16c1f2c5dd3507df9dc1eec64e
Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And secondly, nice cash distribution up around $10 million from your equity method investments. Is that -- would you say that's readable from here in the subsequent quarters?
Some of that was a little one-time with the OMOG JV, returning some cash early after the close. But with the two pipelines starting up in the OMOG JV in full steam ahead, I think that number is probably a fair number, starting Q2 or Q3 to consistently receive back cash from these investments that we spent so much on.
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A
0d6ec1aae0cb40e1183562b0be9bfc68
I'd like to start with the fresh water side of the business. You talked about 20 well completions will be pushed into next year. Can you talk about your expectations for wells that would be serviced with fresh water in the second quarter of this year and then kind of the cadence for the balance of the year?
Yeah. Obviously, when we service the fresh water that's ahead of the completions, so on AR's call we talked about how we did 25 wells completed in the first quarter and about 45 in the second. So a lot of that water was pushed into the first quarter, so the water does come down. Looking ahead into the second half of th...
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A
6d78a446f2fc6afbefb7ad73358ec0e5
And then also on the Antero Resources call, it sounded like you're leaning toward a maintenance mode for 2021. If that plays out as expected, what kind of capex which would you need at Antero Midstream to support that level of activity?
Yeah. Looking out, the capex this year is $215 million to $240 million, the average is about $200 million, and '21 is kind of where we're at. Our capex continues to decline and also hopefully we can work that down from there. But about $200 million is our estimate.
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A
94e06815da386d3ed039f6b0c3ff706f
Previously you've talked about doing more water recycling in the field after you idle to Clearwater Facility. Can you give us an update on this program and how we should think about the mix of activity between infield recycling and outsourcing to third-party for the balance of the year?
Well, our infield recycling has been very successful. Our goal is 100% recycling. We've hit that a number of times, but typically we're anywhere from one-third up to 60% flow back water. Our teams -- water teams have made great efficiency improvements. So that's going along real well. And we feel very good about the pa...
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B
b340e6cb81c1601acc5c92b1e0844322
I wanted to ask quickly about how you're thinking about the balance sheet right now, given both for puts and takes on capex as well as the distribution. You've talked about the 3 to 4 times leverage ratio as kind of being your target. You're certainly within there now. Is it sort of fair to say, that remains the target...
Yeah. No, we feel good about it. Like I mentioned, we're at 3.7 times and we see that kind of a level that we sustain over the next couple of years.
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A
b64a1f026e510ffd8a8a75101a17e0a2
And I guess as you think about your liquidity currently, obviously you're a little bit drawn on the revolver now, sort of, how do you think about the right number of liquidity at AM to run the business on a go forward basis, kind of, given all the uncertainty?
Yeah. We have $1 billion. That's ample liquidity. We don't really draw much on the credit facility on a go-forward basis. We have evened out that maintenance capital for AR, we have continued EBITDA growth into 2021 and our capital continue to decline. So you really don't draw much going forward. So having $1 billion l...
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A
240124b253061244bb972cf4055185cb
And then just last one from me, as you think about just the return of capital, sort of, how do you balance distributions versus share repurchases? Obviously, you've used a lot the last 12 months. And just wanted to get a sense of how you're thinking about that mix going forward.
Yeah. We have about $150 million left on our repurchase program. Obviously, where the equities are at right now, it's attractive to us. So that's why you saw us being active in the first quarter. I would think, we would continue to be active on that going forward to kind of similar levels that we had in the first quart...
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B
d06a6c279dfe516b733fad0abfd79dbf
So when we look at the guidance that you've given versus what you reported in Q1, so it seems like you will have some headwinds in for the remainder of the year. Is that all primarily driven by the water segment and completion activities there or are there other -- any other factors which are driving that?
No, it's just the water. The throughput is as expected. AR's guidance is the same for 2020. So it's really just a deferral of those 20 wells completions since obviously it would have been completed with our water system in 2020 being deferred into '21.
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A
f59e5fbb7f55f29a9e143853a25af027
And then one on the capital allocation kind of framework. So if the conditions you know were to deteriorate in terms of commodity pricing etc, or reflect on AR's plants, I was wondering, is 4 times kind of leverage the max that you let it run to, before you take a hard look at returning cash to shareholders or how shou...
Yeah, it's not a max of our financial policies to go up 4 times. It's hard for me to even envision a case where it goes higher than that. I think you've seen how flexible the capital at AM is. So if AR's capital is less, then AM is going to have much less capital as well. So being fixed fee have acreage dedication. It'...
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B
7a5f17c266ca39a8091fa35bd6255c4f
Hey, good morning guys. This is James on for Jeremy. if I could just start with maybe the incentive fee program. I think when you guys released that back in December, that was kind of built around an 8% to 10%. Production growth from Antero on that -- it seems to be -- have changed with the message this morning. Can yo...
Yeah, no, it's working well. We designed that in the summer for incentive growth for AR and as you know, the first six months at 2.7 Bcf per day in the low pressure and AR was able to deliver 2,717, so they hit that plan and there is growth from AR in the second and third quarter. So we do see them achieving those grow...
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A
404bcbf43bdf13c16d18af0d0a719fc2
Got it, thanks. And then similar to the same question, but looking at the 2021, the broader implications there for Antero Midstream, given the maintenance mode scenario that you guys are running at AR, directionally, where should we think about -- given the situation is fluid and there's a lot of moving pieces, but dir...
No, it's good. As I mentioned, our EBITDA is still growing. You're still -- even maintenance capital you're still growing on AM dedicated lands. So our EBITDA is still growing in 2021, couple of percent. So, definitely, it's come down from the high-single-digits to low-single-digits, but still growing and then our capi...
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A
4ab7d862281127ff50eeb1a09ff349e3
So, you mentioned the refund from AM -- AM would pay to AR, how is that going to flow through just the financial statements? How should we think about that?
It's just a $12 million reduction in the fees. So it will be -- you wouldn't see it, we'll just have $12 million less of LP revenue.
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A
bcb43380514254ea7b87f245283572e4
Got it. And you also mentioned -- I didn't jump into this on the credit facility, but since you've been talking about AR for quite a bit, what -- there is some flexibility, it sounds like you've mentioned in the press release, and if you look through the amendment, you can see there is flexibility for sales. How -- for...
Yeah, I will -- first thing to note is when you think about the asset sales, it's the borrowing base impact. It's not the actual proceeds. And if you can imagine, the price decks that the banks use, there wasn't really much on development -- on developed value -- pipe value. So not only do we have flexibility in those ...
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A
a02a0c2b24bcd0da35a4d735d1fa73cc
And then, you've -- I think you've -- there is some, in both press releases there is mention of evaluating your return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. It seems like what we've talked about on this call is you're comfortable with your leveraging your liquidity. So are you thinking about that tod...
I think you hit it on the first part. We feel good about our position. We're out with our liquidity and balance sheet and knowing our sponsors plan. And so we-which is kind of impressive that AM can actually provide guidance when most are withdrawing their guidance. So we're in good shape and we feel good about it. But...
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B
39514c76e8dddc88a92382df854e484e
And last question for you. The Clearwater facility, I know there's a lot going on right now in the world and I'm curious if there is any developments on potentially capturing some value from that.
No, we don't have anything. I think you saw our update. We're in litigation with, and we'll pursue that vigorously but outside of that, which has been shut down and we shouldn't really have any more facility expenses with that, maybe a couple of million for the remaining nine months. So that should really tail-off, whi...
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A
c0a6e54d9da2f91e494b800b72991b7f
Could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the joint effort by AR and AM to mitigate NGL storage capacity issues in the Northeast? Maybe if you can talk about some of the initiatives you're pursuing to ensure that you have ample storage capacity after the summer.
Yeah, good question. So we have our storage at the -- in the field level at the pads in the compressor stations and alike. We also -- Antero Resources has been able to market its volume at other locations along the Ohio Valley on the river. And so we've had positions in facilities along that corridor there and have bee...
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A
83258107b0a13c777118f9dbd4b59d72
That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just a housekeeping item. Could you quantify the percent of revenues that are derived under minimum volume commitment contracts, which I believe relate to the high pressure gathering and compression assets?
Yeah, I don't have a a number for you like you mentioned, it's 70% to 75% for compression in high pressure and it's also 70% on the processing JV. So -- and those were for the compression in high pressure for projects after post the IPO. So it's not quite that much, but those are the MVCs we have and we don't have many...
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A
c90e5725b7a4d658161d205e3b4bfdc3
Is there a bogey at AR in terms of asset monetization or maybe down to '21s or to '22s where AM would be in a position to pay a more sustainable yield?
We have a $900 million bogey at AR, but that doesn't really influence the yield at all for AM. AM is looking at the underlying fundamentals of the cash flows, but AR does have a $900 million at the top end of their range, which is not needed at all really for the '21s and '22s. It's just generally to get the leverage d...
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A
5482449a2342c3df992a2739ee8073be
Have you seen any international LNG buyers or middlemen trying to bottom the shale market here?
No. We have our firm sales at Cove Point, at Sabine Pass, and at Freeport, and those we've not seen what you're talking about. The cargoes sale, as per the schedule, the buyers are there. So I have not seen any hesitation or interruption in the planned schedule.
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A
55de8ee1f2df9615ba045832e4d1b641
Okay, and I think that you guys are probably good in the short term on all the permitting work for infrastructure, particularly with the slowdown, but do you anticipate any sort of medium or long term problems with the Army Corp Engineers for permitting issues?
No, not at all. We have a really good relationship with the permitting regulatory agencies, both on the federal and the state level. We, like all of oil and gas in West Virginia and Ohio, are considered essential in the context of COVID-19. But we're also just important as an activity base, an employment base, a tax ba...
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A
913a265f0cf52ebb9d69c7a50df57574
And last question, do you guys have any insight on the timing of the cracker where you're the anchor shipper?
Nothing that we could say at this time.
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7fec6f6a965ce778c797cc075ab467ee
Hey, guys. Good morning. I guess the first from me would be, can you just provide a quick update on the build-out at Smithburg, given what looks like now a possibility for entering maintenance mode in 2020 and beyond?
Yeah. We have two plants planned. The first one comes on agenda this year and the second one, next year.
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A
554de89ae21276f658dcb85202c714f8
Okay. But nothing beyond that. I mean, I know that at one point, you had said there is possible I think up to six. But at the moment nothing beyond those two at this point?
Not over the next couple of years, that's right.
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A
0080d3e1028fb5695a75ee6b13e1a753
Okay. Okay, thank you. And then maybe more of an AR question. Gas prices have improved pretty materially here over the last month or so. If things continue to look better through the remainder of this year and into next year, do you think from an AR perspective, they might look to take advantage of that and produce mor...
Yeah, I think the latter. We're quite capital disciplined and don't plan to flex with the move in commodity prices and certainly not the next year or two.
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A
3b07603543473f77a43d6b487c499ff9
The first question I had was around Hawaii. It's such a critical part of your story. So can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of real-time recovery in Hawaii demand? And then any quantification that you can provide around the margin uplift from either improving cracks, and then also progress on more favorable ...
Yes, Neil, this is Bill. As I mentioned in my prepared comments, we've seen a reasonable recovery and -- really in all products in Hawaii. And at this point, with respect to Par East, we're really running all out. As Joseph mentioned in his prepared comments, I mean, we're targeting 80,000 plus, which is as high as tha...
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5be048451019ac1b38c77162f8869846
And then the follow-up is, just on retail, how are you thinking about the strategic fit of the business post sale leaseback? Obviously, you were able to pull some cash out of the business. But do you see this business as a core part of your strategy going forward? And then if I can tack one on as it relates to retail, ...
Let me take the last one first. I mean, there's certainly maybe some near-term pressure on the margins, given crude oil price increases, but for the year, we expect that any margin compression is likely to be offset by increases in fuel volumes as mobility trends improve. With respect to the strategic nature, as I note...
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aa34af6307d14562c8f8f38e35d9c1c7
The first one would just be on the environmental costs in the fourth quarter, the $22 million, I believe, was the number. Did you have a rough allocation of that across the three refineries?
Sure, Phil. It's, Will. Approximately $10 million in Hawaii, $7 million in Wyoming and about $6 million in Tacoma.
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A
7c2c3a82865085fb927883794c9eb073
Okay. Great. Thank you. And just what are your thoughts on the ongoing RINs impact for 2021? Or at least for the first quarter, I guess, we don't know where RINs are exactly going here.
Yes. I think, Phil, for the ongoing recurring expense at current prices, for '21, we'd expect in our annual rent expense to be in the $50 million to $55 million per year range. So I think that's our overall outlook on the recurring expense.
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7db49f3396a0067cc001db81ff0c6bd7
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just from a balance sheet perspective, you had mentioned the idea of -- at the right price, any asset would be for sale. But just how do you think about where you want the balance sheet to be? Are there other actions you might take to accelerate progress there, and as you look out kind ...
Yes. I think our historical perspective on this has been that we like our net debt-to-cap to be in the 30% to 35% range. I still think that's our objective. We've obviously had to delay that objective, given the impact of the pandemic. But I still think that remains our objective. And again, with our mix of businesses,...
direct
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
A
e09fcaf286bbd33b8308ec0f6694e271
Hey. Good morning, everyone. Will, could you provide a quick update on Laramie? Where does the drilling program stand? Were they in a position to capture the high natural gas prices that occurred earlier this quarter? And where do you stand on potentially looking to divest that interest?
Sure, Matt. With respect to their development program, Laramie, it's not operating any rigs at the moment. So again, continuing to produce its base proved developed producing assets. With respect to the recent spike in gas prices, Laramie was able to operate through the cold snap and did have some significant exposure ...
intermediate
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
B
6ead50559fa3dd276e2e01193bc330fd
Sounds good. And then thinking about refinery opex for the first quarter here, will there be any headwinds from higher natural gas prices hitting either, I guess, Wyoming or Washington? And then what about the higher crude price impact in Hawaii?
Matt, this is Joseph. Because of our contractual structure of the gas price, we are not anticipating any significant spike in gas price for all our refineries. It's going to be very, very minimal. And with regards to the crude, crude is up, but the products are going up as well. And overall, crack spreads are improving...
direct
[ "direct", "intermediate", "fully_evasive" ]
A