| --- |
| license: apache-2.0 |
| tags: |
| - magic-the-gathering |
| - draft |
| - model-evaluation |
| - reproducibility |
| - predictions |
| --- |
| |
| # DraftFM frozen_eval: the per-pick prediction archive |
| |
| Every prediction behind the tables in the DraftFM paper, archived so the |
| results can be recomputed (no GPU needed) and audited pick by pick. |
| |
| - **Model:** [brianward92/draftfm](https://huggingface.co/brianward92/draftfm) |
| - **Code and paper:** https://github.com/brianward92/mtga |
| |
| Each top-level directory is named by the sha256 of the frozen data snapshot |
| it was evaluated against — the directory name itself is the registration. |
| Inside are per-pick prediction parquets for every model in the battery |
| (scaling rungs `s1`–`s16`, `f-dev`, `f-full`, ablations, and baselines), |
| in both `human` and `deployment` scoring modes, plus derived accuracy |
| curves and a `summary.json` recording the evaluation context and gates. |
| |
| ## Directories |
| |
| | Directory | What it is | |
| |---|---| |
| | `013df16b…183a` | **The headline MSH pass**: single pre-registered zero-shot evaluation over the first public MSH snapshot (PremierDraft, protocol v1.1, executed 2026-07-07). Source of the 57.0% top-1 result | |
| | `013df16b…183a_postday1` | Post-day-one MSH ceiling: per-set model fine-tuned on MSH after the zero-shot pass, as pre-registered in the protocol (2026-07-09) | |
| | `df6220d8…853` | Full-battery end-to-end rehearsal on SOS PremierDraft (protocol v1, 2026-07-05), run before the real MSH pass to burn in the pipeline | |
| | `6552b298…34e` | Earlier SOS TradDraft rehearsal with baselines (protocol v1, 2026-07-04) | |
| | `validation/` | Per-set validation parquets (e.g. SOS) used for sanity gates | |
|
|
| The rehearsals are included deliberately: the protocol's credibility comes |
| from showing the pipeline was exercised and frozen *before* the one-shot |
| MSH evaluation, not tuned after it. |
|
|
| ## Using it |
|
|
| Each `<model>.<mode>.parquet` holds one row per pick with the model's |
| probability over the pack and the chosen card; `summary.json` in each |
| directory records the snapshot sha256, S3 ETag, protocol tag, execution |
| timestamp, and data-quality gates. To recompute a table, aggregate the |
| parquets; to audit a claim, join any pick back to its prediction. The |
| battery definition lives in the model repo's `frozen_battery.json`; the |
| chronology is in the code repo's `docs/eval_protocol.md`. |
|
|
| ## Provenance and licensing |
|
|
| These files are model outputs and derived aggregates generated by the |
| DraftFM pipeline (Apache-2.0). The underlying human draft data is the |
| 17Lands public dataset (CC BY 4.0 — "Data from 17Lands.com"); raw |
| 17Lands rows are not redistributed here. Unofficial Fan Content per the |
| Wizards of the Coast Fan Content Policy; not approved or endorsed by |
| Wizards. |
|
|
| ## Contact |
|
|
| Brian Ward — brian.ward.92@gmail.com |
|
|
