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Meanwhile, archrival Ariba (ARBA :Nasdaq), at about $150 a share, has steadily been marching back toward its all-time high of $183.31.
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It has jumped 47% since reporting its earnings on July 12.
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But as Wednesday's move may indicate, it may be Commerce One's turn.
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People are beginning to pay attention to the strength of its partnership with Germany's SAP (SAP:NYSE ADR).
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An exchange that Commerce One is helping build for the big automakers is about to crank up.
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And perhaps more importantly, some observers are beginning to see some value in Commerce One's focus on so-called direct B2B, which involves buying and selling major supplies like steel for cars instead of office supplies.
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Issues Aplenty Of course, there are still plenty of issues facing Commerce One, the same issues that have held its stock down.
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For instance, it carries the stigma of being a concept stock because no one knows whether those same big industry exchanges actually will work.
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Its sluggish stock also puts it at a disadvantage to chief competitor Ariba when it comes to making acquisitions to grow.
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But for now, there are signs that sentiment is shifting in Commerce One's favor.
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Gavin Mlinar, an analyst at Sands Brothers, sees three short-term positives for Commerce One.
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(He's the analyst who had the gall to downgrade Ariba on valuation concerns. His firm hasn't done underwriting for either company.) Mlinar says the word on Wall Street is that Commerce One, along with its new best friend SAP, will announce two new online exchanges in the coming weeks.
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(TSC's Adam Lashinsky recently wrote a column about the partnership between Commerce One and SAP.) While those sorts of announcements no longer guarantee a moon shot for a company's stock, they could show that the partnership is working.
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Two weeks ago, they announced new exchanges in the mining and energy industries.
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Commerce One declined to comment about the possible exchanges.
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Blastoff On top of that, Covisint, the mega-exchange that Commerce One is helping build for the auto industry, is slated to begin operations at the end of September, which could give the first indication of whether these exchanges actually work.
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Then there's the coming completion of Commerce One's acquisition of consulting firm AppNet (APNT:Nasdaq).
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Investors initially reacted negatively to that deal.
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But since then, it's become clear that there aren't enough consultants in B2B to go around, so the deal will give Commerce One its own army of geeks to plug in its software.
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"There's no doubt that investors are in a good position with" either Commerce One or Ariba, Mlinar says.
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"But it's a matter now of who has the near-term operational catalysts. I think there, it's Commerce One."
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Beyond those short-term catalysts, others say Commerce One has been positioning itself smartly for the long term, especially with its focus on the direct business.
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"We think the big play here is in direct," says John Biestman, director of investor relations for Commerce One.
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"While we will continue to service the indirect procurement side, we are hitting at the heart of where we think B2B will be, which is direct goods. We want to be the best-of-breed player there."
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Ariba has also made headway there, but its focus has primarily been on the indirect business, in part because it's easier to get companies to buy things like paper and pencils online than material that actually goes into the manufacturing process.
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But with companies becoming more comfortable about buying and selling online, they're now looking to the direct business as a way to save more money.
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With big customers like GM (GM:NYSE) and Boeing (BA :NYSE) and its partnership with SAP, Commerce One could be ready to exploit this growing comfort.
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Direct vs. Indirect "What's happening is the marketplace is beginning to understand the difference between direct and indirect," says Ben Smith, a consultant for A.T.
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Kearney.
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(His firm hasn't done consulting for Commerce One.) "Picking a [software] solution for one doesn't necessarily include the other."
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Smith points back to Commerce One's partnership with SAP.
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For years, the German software maker has been concentrating on the complex kind of software that helps businesses build things.
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If a firm can successfully plug that in to software designed to buy the building blocks -- like Commerce One's software -- it could have a winning combination.
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"The SAP partnership legitimizes Commerce One in the direct materials space," Smith says.
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"It gives them much more depth from the product standpoint than they can possibly build on their own."
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Of course, Ariba isn't letting this business just slide by.
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It's working with partners i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq) and IBM(IBM:Nasdaq).
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But this is Commerce One's focus.
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So if companies do begin to use direct B2B, Commerce One will be ready and waiting.
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Thank you.
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Thank you.
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Exciting stuff.
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Rumor on the street that the legislature may make a last minute play to change the make-up of the governing boards (at least for the ISO) from the current stakeholder make-up to one made up of appointees of the governor.
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will do.
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the damned book costs $100!
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i've borrowed yours.
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you know where to find it.
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FYI.
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Internet B2Bs Rose Hard and Fell Hard Once Before.
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Time for Act Two?
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By Joe Bousquin Staff Reporter 8/30/00 9:22 PM ET URL: Beware the booming B2Bs.
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Several business-to-business stocks rocketed upward Wednesday on little news as the Nasdaq waffled for most of the day.
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While some market watchers said investors were betting on a strong quarter, many analysts couldn't explain increases of 15% or more in stocks like Commerce One (CMRC:Nasdaq), Ventro Big Day for B2B Several of the stocks rallied Wednesday on little news.
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"You've got me," says Bill Epifanio, B2B analyst at J.P. Morgan.
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"They're all going nuts on nothing."
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Since earnings season ended, sentiment about B2B stocks has shifted back to the rose-colored variety in this sector.
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While this change is based on the concrete results that companies like Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq), i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq) and FreeMarkets (FMKT:Nasdaq) delivered, investors also may want to pause and reflect.
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After all, it was only this past spring that investors grabbed any B2B stock within reach on hopes of unlimited growth, only to have them come crashing back down.
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Focus "Before, we were buying stocks on promises of what they could be, and that's when it got out of hand," says Eric Upin, B2B analyst at Robertson Stephens.
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"Now, you've got to focus on which stocks are delivering lots of growth and revenue."
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Upin looks to Ariba and i2 Technologies as examples of companies that are actually delivering.
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(He rates both a buy, and his firm hasn't done underwriting for either.) Ariba recorded $153 million in deferred revenue in the most recent quarter.
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Deferred revenue is money that a company collects before it actually delivers a product or does its job.
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It's a good signal, because if people are willing to pay before a company gives them something in return, it means there's strong demand.
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Ariba was up $8, or 6%, to $152.50.
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i2 is considered a strong player in supply-chain management software, and it has a partnership with Ariba and IBM (IBM:NYSE).
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It climbed $11.13, or 7%, to Reaching?
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But in a possible indication that investors may have just been reaching for any B2B stock, Ventro finished up $2.69, or 21%, at $15.50 on no news.
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This is the same company that upset analysts and investors with a poor second-quarter performance, with just $1.8 million in net revenue.
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"Investors need to be more careful regarding which of the B2Bs they select," adds David Hilal, a B2B analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey.
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"When B2B was at its highest, any company that used that acronym seemed to perform well. Now, you have to dig deeper and figure out which ones are the real players in this new economy."
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Meanwhile, one of the most interesting subplots Wednesday involved Commerce One.
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On no real news -- there was talk about an already announced deal -- Commerce One shot up $10.88, or 21%, to $63.25.
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Pleas approve Tricia's request to become an authorized EOL trader
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Please grant Steven Vu execution privileges on EOL John Arnold
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Hey : Just wanted to see if you're doing anything tonight...
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Any interest in getting dinner?
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John
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hey: when are you back in town??
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i just had the whole it staff up here.
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I just got two good tickets to Thursday's Astros/Yankees game
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Hello: I just wanted to arrange to meet for the Astros tickets.
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I work and live downtown.
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My cell phone number is 713-557-3330.
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Thanks, John
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lyle lovett national anthem nolan ryan first pitch dwight gooden first real pitch
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7:00 game can you let me know tomorrow??
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sec 222 row 2
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club seats extra wide extra leg room extra waitresses
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My brother was coming back from London to go so I went out and paid a fortune from a scalper for two....
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I really do appreciate it though..
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sounds good
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I am free at 3:30 on Thursday at my desk.
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I am changing the way the curve is generated starting in Jan 2004 to better replicate seasonal fundamentals.
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There are convincing arguments as to why the summer/winter spreads should tighten over time.
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However, in the previous methodology they blew out.
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For instance summer/winter in Cal 3 was .232 while Cal 10 was .256.
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I have added a seasonality dampening function that both contracts the summer/winter spread and applies a premium to the electric load demand months of July and August over time.
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The formula for the curve remains the same except for a premium lookup for the month as well as for the year.
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These premiums are as follows: Jan -.008 Feb -.004 Mar -.001 Apr .002 May .003 Jun .004 Jul .004 Aug .004 Oct .002 Nov -.003 Dec -.006 These premiums start in Jan 2004 On Wednesday Jan 2003 settled 2.959, the 3/4 spread was marked at .0375, the 4/5 spread was marked at .0475.
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