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i'll be there round 7:30. | dev33 |
That would work for me. | dev33 |
And presumably Rory and Co. could come then, too? | dev33 |
Can the deal bench presentation be distributed publicly? | dev33 |
I'd like to use it in the "subcommittee" meetings I mentioned last week as a means to a solution for California's reasonableness review morass. | dev33 |
Left a message with Kahn late last evening. | dev33 |
Haven't heard back yet. | dev33 |
Will let you know. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Frank's number at Luntz Research Companies is 703.358.0080. | dev33 |
For video info, ask Steve Kean. | dev33 |
Will do. | dev33 |
But Rory (who by the way is responsible for this mess!) now has decided that he'd like to do a Xmas "make up" on the 29th, which is smack dab in the middle of when we'll be up at the dome (tween xmas and new year's--hopefully you and eldon will join us so we can kick yer butts in spades). | dev33 |
so the 29th is very bad, as you can imagine. | dev33 |
if we could do the 24th, that would be great. | dev33 |
when's your plane leave on the 24th? | dev33 |
do surf shops rent wet suits? | dev33 |
you think i can rent one from live water? | dev33 |
yes. | dev33 |
do we have a call-in number yet? | dev33 |
Jennifer: I got a call from Chris Bailey (sp?) needing a summary of California dereg for a presentation(s) that Harold's assembling. | dev33 |
Attached is summary that Mona pulled together for Harold a couple of months ago. | dev33 |
I don't have Chris' email address (I've left him a message). | dev33 |
Could you forward this along to him? | dev33 |
Thanks a bunch. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
yep. | dev33 |
Sean: 305.5160 | dev33 |
naked, all in one bed. | dev33 |
star doesn't need a bed. | dev33 |
prentice and i will need a bed (hey, it's her birthday!) tom & karen are very iffy, but if they show, and stay overnight (iffy times two), then they'll need a bed. | dev33 |
that work? | dev33 |
For today's noon call. | dev33 |
when you open, answer "disable macros" to first prompt, and "no" to question about links. | dev33 |
there are three portfolio scenarios that i'd be happy to discuss very quickly during the call. | dev33 |
FYI. | dev33 |
As you know, we're attempting to find a solution to the "reasonable review" morrass that's impeding utility forward contracting. | dev33 |
For that effort, we've worked with the Portland desk to pull together some educational materials to use with a subset of California stakeholders that's trying to devise a solution to California's melt down. | dev33 |
The attached graphs show 3 scenarios for the state as a whole. | dev33 |
1) "do nothing" 2) for 60% of IOU short position, split the amount 50-50 and 1cover half the amount with 10-year fixed priced power and the other half with 5-year fixed priced power. | dev33 |
3) create a portfolio with a) 25% of short position covered by 10-year fixed priced power, b) 20% of short position covered by 5-year fixed price power, c) 15% covered by 1-year fixed price power, d) 20% covered by May-Sept fixed-price power, and e) 15% from the PX. | dev33 |
The term of each scenario is 5 years. | dev33 |
Because each is priced off our our curves, the average price is roughly equivalent for each of the three portfolios. | dev33 |
However, the graph shows (as one would expect) that exposure to price volatility is significantly higher under scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3. | dev33 |
The goal is to use the illustrative scenarios to persuade the industry that in the short run (i.e., immediately) the utilities should be permitted to buy a modest amount of power under 5 and 10 terms, and those purchases (if undertaken using a "DealBench-like" tool) ought to be "per se" reasonable. | dev33 |
If anyone has questions about it, or would like to discuss further, give a call at 415.782.7822. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Agree that Enron shouldn't be the lead. | dev33 |
An economist should be the lead with a broad group of folks funding. | dev33 |
Seems funny that EPSA wouldn't have an interest in the debate over how market power is assessed and addressed. | dev33 |
oh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | dev33 |
In the "big" house, sleeps 10---3 kings and 2 twins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | dev33 |
In the "little" house, sleeps 6--2 queens and 1 trundle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | dev33 |
anything else!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | dev33 |
Hi. | dev33 |
Got your message. | dev33 |
As you know, it's complete meltdown here, so I apologize for not having got back to you sooner. | dev33 |
I'll read and get back to you. | dev33 |
Deadline? | dev33 |
Leslie: Looks good. | dev33 |
Just a couple of comments: 1. | dev33 |
General May want to point out that the roots of California's current gas woes are the same ones causing the electric problem---combined effect of California's "import-based" energy policy and the state's failure to invest in in-state infrastructure. | dev33 |
California imports about 25% of its electricity, but about 80-90 percent of its gas supply. | dev33 |
California has failed to invest in the in-state infrastructure necessary to support increased gas demand over the last decade. | dev33 |
So we've got an interstate pipeline superhighway to the border and a dirt road of in-state transportation once you get into California. | dev33 |
The last bullet seems to suggest that manipulation may be taking place. | dev33 |
Can we support that suggestion, and is it one that we want to make necessarily? | dev33 |
If we do suggest that manipulation may in part explain current prices, do we need to propose ways to eliminate it? | dev33 |
Otherwise, seems that we may be giving FERC ammunition to take action without trying to "steer" that action in the right direction. | dev33 |
Maybe I'm reading too much into the bullet. | dev33 |
2. | dev33 |
Specific Competition for gas coming to California has increased significantly. | dev33 |
The midwest (via Alliance) is competing away Canadian gas. | dev33 |
The Southwest (Nevada, Arizona) is competing away supply from the Southwest before it hits the California border. | dev33 |
But if they kept Grace, they might have a winning season, and lord knows nobody wants that.... | dev33 |
Thanks a bunch. | dev33 |
So how in the world did you find yourself standing in front of this tornado? | dev33 |
FYI. | dev33 |
EPSA and IEP will have a joint PR call tomorrow in case anyone would like to listen in. | dev33 |
He just can't help himself. | dev33 |
thanks very much. | dev33 |
math error. | dev33 |
big sleeps 8. | dev33 |
little sleeps. | dev33 |
can you explain the panic about sleeping arrangements, and could you fill me in on what those arrangements are prior to sending the email out? | dev33 |
Looks fine to me to send around. | dev33 |
You want to send it? | dev33 |
Give a call when you get a chance to discuss. | dev33 |
That's the information that they sent me, copied from what they sent me. | dev33 |
8 (big) 6 (little). | dev33 |
i assume "trundle" sleeps two. | dev33 |
Just met with the industry group trying to come up with a solution for California. | dev33 |
The group liked our portfolio approach. | dev33 |
In sum: A portfolio approach is the right long-term solution. | dev33 |
In the short run, our illustrative portfolios show that the utilities ought to immediately fill a modest portion of their requirements via fixed-price, long term contracts, and those contracts should be found reasonable, up front, so long as the utility uses a competitive auction. | dev33 |
To stimulate discussion we proposed that the utility fill 5% of its net short position with 5-year, fixed-price contracts and 5% from 10-year, fixed-price contracts. | dev33 |
Everyone on the call liked the proposal. | dev33 |
After some discussion about whether 5%-5% was the right one, Edison agreed to come to Friday's meeting with its proposal for price/term/quantity that it ought to contract for immediately. | dev33 |
(Edison may want the number to be higher, and the baskets to be different.) Anything can happen between now and Friday, but thus far looks positive. | dev33 |
Thanks to everyone for the help in getting the proposal together, Steve Swain in particular. | dev33 |
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