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We shall continue work in Houston to improve the model.
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Two critical areas: a.
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VaR model, by its nature, does not capture one big risk MG has in its portfolios.
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This is the liquidity risk resulting from different cash consequences of the hedges and the underlying positions.
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b.
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We should go through due diligence to validate the process generating the position numbers (i.e. look into the details of specific transactions).
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From what I know, MG has a fairly rudimentary risk management system and I am not quite sure how they generate option prices (and deltas).
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They get some option prices by calling brokers.
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4.
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I think the current VaR is within 80-85% of the true number (assuming the inputs are right).
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But, as I have said, VaR does not capture all the risks that we have to worry about.
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Vince
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Osman, Yes, but a visa may be a problem.
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Vince
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Can you figure out the reason for cocoa beans VaR fluctuations?
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The same is true of aluminum.
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I assume this is the position change.
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Vince
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I shall be attending the bi-monthly meetings.
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We always have a significant number of associates rotating through my group and supporting different units of Enron.
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Vince Kaminski Enron North America Corp.
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Phil, I shall be in town through the rest of the week.
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Plesase, give me a call.
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Vince Phil Sisneros@ENRON COMMUNICATIONS
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Thanks, I have received the paper.
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Vince
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Shirley, Please, arrange a phone interview.
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Zimin, Stinson, and myself.
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He may be a good candidate for Tanya.
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Vince
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FYI Vince
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Anita, An updated agenda.
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We still need Grant's bullet points.
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Vince
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Hi Jana, The trip was very interesting and I am still recovering.
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On Friday we can meet at the restaurant.
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It's on the edge of the Woodlands.
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We can then go to our home and have drinks and chat.
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The restaurant is: Amerigo's Grill 25250 Grogans Park Dr Phone: 281-362-0808 I have sent you an URL of the map of the part of the Woodlands where Amerigo's is located.
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It's a red dot on the map.
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What about 7:00 p.m.?
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Look forward to meeting you.
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Vince
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Hi Jana, The dress is casual.
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In this restaurant we can sit outside (quite casual) or inside (more formal dress, but still casual).
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I shall also send you the directions to my home, just in case.
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Vince
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John, I am writing to you regarding the management of the London Research group.
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As you know, Dale Surbey, who was managing the London unit of the Research Group, is moving to EBS.
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Dale did a terrific job helping me to develop the pool of talent we have currently in London.
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Given that Dale is likely to be transfered to Houston, it's time to nominate one member of the Research Group for a management position.
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My recommendation is Steve Leppard.
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Steve emerged not only as the most technically qualified member of the group but also as a natural leader, highly respected by his peers and internal customers.
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Steve has a very high energy level and is very efficient as a manager and as coach of new talent.
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His promotion is likely to cause Anjam's departure form Enron.
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I value technical skills of Anjam, but in spite of my loyalty to him, don't think he is the same caliber as Steve.
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However, I would not like to lose him and think about moving him to Houston for 2 years.
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I think that the opportunity to work in Houston, would be a sufficient incentive to keep him in Enron.
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By the way, his performance feedback has greatly improved.
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Please, let me know what you think.
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Vince
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We can offer him a job.
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The problem is, he has about 2 more years to go.
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Vince
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Anita, My version.
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Minor changes.
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Vince
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Amy, My bio.
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Vince
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Mike, Please, draft a message to JS, DD and JL outlining the AGA benefits and costs.
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This will be their decision.
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Vince
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Mark, Steve's comment has many merits.
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I think Stinson Gibner and Grant Masson (physics Ph.D.'s) can help to identify academic and industry sources to validate some of the claims.
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On the other hand, even if our guests were wrong by a factor of 2 or 3 in their time estimates, the technology they develop will bring about a technological revolution with enormous potential payoffs.
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It make sense to stay close to them and to explore potential investment opportunities.
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Vince
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We would like you to meet tomorrow morning, starting at 9:00, with a few members of the group.
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Around 11:15 we shall go to lunch (myself, Stinson Gibner and Zimin At 1:00 we would like you to make a presentation to the Research Group on the topic of your choice. After 2:30 we shall continue with individual meetings. We shall give you an agenda with the names and times when you arrive. You can come to the lobby of the Enron building (1400 Smith) between 8:30 and 9:00 and call me (3-3848) or my assistant, Shirley Crenshaw (3-5290), to be admitted to the building. We are on the 19th floor. Look forward to meeting you. Vince Kaminski
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Richard, Please, let me know what the timetable is.
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I would like to talk to Anjam a few days before to break the news to him.
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I hope I can save him for the company and offer him a position in Houston.
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We desperately need skills he has.
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Vince
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Kevin, No prolem.
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Vince
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Clayton, Thanks.
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Vince
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Shirley, Please, request Exceed for all the members of the group.
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Vince
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Louise, Thanks.
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Vince
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Jim, Thanks.
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I shall drop him an E-mail.
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Vince
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Allan, I am sending you my coordinates.
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I expect to be in London around September the 20th.
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Vince Kaminski
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FYI Vince
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Rick, Thanks for your message.
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